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 This really didn’t start out as a formation bingo. All I really wanted to know was: when the Vikings go to a nickel package, who would be the 1st player on the field? Would it be a 3rd cornerback or a 3rd safety? With the implication being, how much to we have to rely on players with limited track record? Click here to read article But then, with statements suggesting the Vikings will play 3 safeties at a time, I was trying to sketch out as many possible formations as I could think of just to get a sense of who might play. Here’s a bunch of them:  As I was drawing these out I was trying to keep track of who was playing. Since 3-4 OLB and even front ends could be the same people designated the Daniele Hunter & Za’Darius Smith (+ rotation depth) as Stars, rather than split out DEs What I thought of each bingo square Base 3-4: Counting the square icons in the chart, this is the only one with 3 DL. I’m on record as liking Armon Watts, but if the DL depth is Tomlinson 1, Harrison Phillips 2, Watts 3, then Watts doesn’t show up that much. As much as I like Watts, I kind of like this because that means we have 3 guys to play 1-3 spots, so the defense isn’t too reliant on unexpected contributions from Jalen Twyman, James Lynch or Esezi Otomewo. Nickel: The huge question to me is who is the nickel corner: one Booth Jr / Dantzler or Chandon Sullivan? I get it, nickel is a different skillset, but I don’t really like putting a worse player on the field. So I’ll put Booth Jr in. Nickel Safety: The whole reason I was thinking about this: who comes on first: a 3rd corner or a 3rd safety. As I was looking for this, I saw this on r/minnesotavikings (it said from Vikings Insider, but I couldn’t find the tweet)  Very interesting, that’s Cine lined up at approximately the RLB spot with Bynum and Smith at Safties, Hunter and Za’Darius are in at DE, #3 Dantzler and Patrick Peterson in the visor and Kendricks wins style hands down with a wide brimmed hat. So Cine on the field suggests this nickle with a Safety might be more common than 3 CBs. This pic also raised another question – the left LB has a rounded number looks like a 3 or 8 – that could be Hicks (#58), Lynch (48) or Asamoah (33); given the skin tone and hair length, this looks like Asamoah on the field with the 1’s. 4-1-6 with a Safety vs. a Corner – I like what amounts to a dime defense with an extra safety way more than 4 corners. That puts all the high upside talent on the field with the vets: Paterson, Dantzler, Booth + Harrision Smith, Bynum, Cine. Why mess that up by taking one of them off for Chandon Sullivan or whoever. 33 – 3 DL, 3 LB, 3 S – I didn’t like this at all until I saw the image with Asamoah on the field. At first this was just a way to put a 3rd LB on the chart, but now that I think about it, that’s 4 guys with a reputation for being able to run and hit: Kendricks, Asamoah, Harrison Smith, Cine. This still isn’t my favorite, but it these guys could cover a lot of space. I just don’t know what offensive formation they would play this against. 3-3-5 with and without a safety playing the 3rd LB spot - I guess these could work in long to go situations, the point would probably be to send a blitzer; however at some point I feel like there’s enough speed to cover the secondary, so why not just go with the 4-1-6 and with a D-line of 4 out of Hunter / Za’Darius / Wonnum / Jones II / Robinson / Twyman (just to get his name in this post) for pressure? Quarter with 3 Safties – Yeah, this is only probably for 3rd and really long, but that's a situation the Vikings screwed up in 2021. And I actually like this one quite a bit because of an interesting stat : Which Vikings DT generated QB pressure on the highest % of their snaps played in 2021? Answer momentarily: I also like Cine or Bynum on the field much more than a 5th corner. In this lineup 3 DL would be blocked by 5 O-Line, obviously they can double team Hunter and Za’Daruis, so run out the best inside pressure guy you have for a 1:1 with the worst pass blocking o-lineman on the other team. At the start of this, which DT was it I was sad about not being on the field that much? Armon Watts. And here he is, he can play in this formation:  So there you have it... the Vikings might consider playing with 3 safeties before 3 corners.This really didn’t start out as a formation bingo. All I really wanted to know was: when the Vikings go to a nickel package, who would be the 1st player on the field? Would it be a 3rd cornerback |
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I've gone deeper than anyone has been willing to go before, but since I'm the master of brevity, I'll keep it short and sweet. Click here to read article I went all the way back to 2002 and took every preseason SOS to see if they had any bearing on the upcoming season, and yes, they kinda did. Lets take this first chart for example. We got the preseason rank there in the first column, and then the average SOS finish of that rank in the 2nd column. It's not earth shattering but there's a little bit of a pattern there. It's backed up by the other 6 columns. If you start with a tough SOS, you're most likely going to have a tough schedule. For example, the toughest SOS has never finished with a bottom 5 SOS. And vice versa. The top 10 and bottom 10 groupings are fairly clear. SOS That chart is based on the traditional SOS. Nemesis -tem not pictured. The chart below is based on the more accurate S.M.A.R.T.A.S.S. system.  1 9.95 1 9 12 2 0 0 As you can see, the pattern is a little more clear. The Vikings have the 18th toughest S.M.A.R.T.A.S.S. schedule. Only 27th most difficult offensive schedule, so the defense should have it easy, but the 6th toughest defensive schedule, so we already have the 1st excuse for Cousins.  But yeah if you look at the lineup of QB's we face this year, it's very favorable. Rodgers x2 Fields x2 Goff x2 Hurts Winston Tua Murray Wentz Josh Allen Dak Mac Jones Wilson (not that one, Zach) Ryan Daniel Jones Not many scary names on that list. But how does SOS affect individual teams?
So there you have it. Teams that start with a top SOS, typically win fewer games that season. Oddly enough though, it's not good to end up with the easiest schedule lol. With the 20th ranked SOS like the Vikings have, 9 teams ended up worse and 8 better, with an average win increase of -0.43. Err I mean a 0.43 win decrease?  Now lets see what the S.M.A.R.T.A.S.S. has to say about it. SOS # AVG/W TEAMS-THAT-GOT Looks like the S.M.A.R.T.A.S.S. once again paints a better picture. Of the 19 teams with the 18th ranked SOS, 12 had more wins the following year, 7 had fewer.  I've gone deeper than anyone has been willing to go before, but since I'm the master of brevity, I'll keep it short and sweet.
I went all the way back to 2002 and took every preseason SOS |
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This is the last really meaningful game in the series of looking at 2021 for 2022 opportunities, because this is the last game Danielle Hunter played. Click here to read article Am I being a bit melodramatic putting such a weight on Hunter being out? No, if anything I'm underreacting. In the seven games with Hunter, the Vikings' defense allowed 30+ points one time (34 to Arizona that they could have won, but for a missed field goal). One out of seven is allowing 30+ points in 14% of games. Without Danielle Hunter in the lineup, the Vikings allowed 30+ points in 50% of their games. Here are the games where the Vikings did NOT allow 30+ points in the last 10 games: Win at Chargers – 20 points allowed – arguably the high point for team defense all season. Loss at Lions – 29 points allowed – And just for hilarity’s sake, I will point out that the Lions scored on the last play, and NFL rules say that no extra point will be attempted on a touchdown with 0:00 on the clock if the extra point can’t impact the outcome of the game. A rules technicality that came into being after the Saints were forced to do a walk of shame after the Minneapolis Miracle. So, ... yay for 2017 Stefon Diggs helping the team not allow 30 points in this game! Win vs Steelers – 28 points allowed – The Steelers were the 21st-ranked scoring offense, and allowing 28 points allowed to an out-of-shape, slower-than-molasses, about-to-retire Ben Roethlisberger ranks as one of the better defensive efforts by the Vikings in the second half of the season. And even then, it took a missed field goal and failed two-point conversion to keep the Steelers under 30 points. Both games against whatever it was that counts as an offense in Chicago – 9 and 17 points allowed. That’s it. Every other game the rest of the season, the defense let in at least 30 points. Given what I’ve seen from the Vikings' offense in games one through seven, I’m surprised they managed to go 5-5 in those ten games with such horrible defensive performances. The lack of creativity in play design I've seen means that scoring that much is going to rely disproportionately on individual talent. I will view the fact that players were capable of scoring that much as a positive for 2022. If you want to go back: here are the first games of the season: Game 1 @ CIN Game 2 @ ARI Game 3 vs SEA Game 4 vs CLE Game 5 vs DET Game 6 @ CAR Now looking specifically at the game versus the Cowboys: Interesting stat: 5.1 vs 8.8 yards-per-pass-attempt in favor of the Cowboys, playing with a backup quarterback. This is interesting on both sides of the ball. For the Vikings, 5.1 YPA was the third worst of the season, barely better than the 5.0 a largely frozen Sean Mannion put up in Green Bay and the 3.6 YPA in a win in Chicago. This is the most head-scratching number from the game because the Cowboys weren’t a great pass defense. The Vikings had more yards against elite pass defenses. The Panthers, 49ers, Browns and Bears all finished in the top six in total pass yards allowed, and the Vikings gained more yards against them than they did versus the Cowboys. On the Cowboys’ side, the 8.8 YPA is pretty solid (better than the Vikings' season average of 6.4), but actually undersells their passing game. Cooper Rush had below average completion percent; the Cowboys’ yards-per-completion was 13.6, the second highest of the season (behind only Aaron Rodgers’ 16.2 in the epic Rodgers versus Cousins passing duel in week 11). And it wasn’t all the one big pass play to Cedrick Wilson; if I subtract out 1/1 for 73 yards, the Cowboys were still above average in YPA (6.5) and YPC (11.0) on the day (based on Vikings' norms). This game wasn’t just about Cousins taking too many check downs; it was a far too conservative passing game by the Vikings, with the Vikings' defense giving up too many big pass plays. Key play: I could have picked several here, but I picked this one because it confuses me, and I want to get more opinions on it. This is on the second drive of the game. At this point the Vikings are up 7-0, although it could have been more. This was the play prior to the key play:  Jefferson’s toe snagged the turf and he lost half a step of speed while the ball was in the air; the ball bounced off the tips of his fingers. This was right there for a huge gain if not a touchdown. Then this play: Cousins winds up to throw down the middle, presumably deep. I snapped his feet set and wind-up to try and link up timing between the two frames when he wants to throw the ball. After this play, Cousins was mad and shouting at the receivers for making a mistake on their routes; the broadcast didn’t pick up who Cousins was yelling at. After this snap, Cousins sidesteps pressure and throws high to Conklin on the left. Cousins' throw was clearly set up to be a timing throw, three-step drop and let it go.  At first glance, this looks like a check down and poor throw by Cousins, but I picked it because there should have been a play to be made. There’s only a few things I can figure out here: - Cousins wasn’t looking for Cook. If he was, he has him wide open. - I don’t think Thielen was in the wrong. Thielen did nothing with his route and basically stood near the sideline. However, that puts him a long way away from the middle of the field where Cousins was looking. I’m going to chalk Thielen’s route up to trying to pull a safety right, and that worked. - Conklin was where he was expected to be for the outlet. That leaves two possibilities: - Osborn was supposed to cross shorter and didn’t get to the hole in the zone soon enough. - Smith-Marsette was supposed to do something other than go deep. I don’t really care who messed up between Osborn and Smith-Marsette; the point is that if one of them had made the right move, this is a big gain. There are huge holes behind the linebackers that either of them could have gotten into. These plays back to back were two giant gains that were never realized. There aren’t many explosive plays like that to be had in any game; you can’t leave back-to-back 20-30 yard gains on the table and expect to win. Looking at the scores for each unit on my normal -2 to +2 scale (with no 0’s): Passing offense: Pass protection was good enough to win. Everyone else, overall, very poor showing. I’ll be transparent now; I started this game looking for every check down and examples of Cousins throwing short when there was something deep there. I thought this was the only way to explain such a poor YPA number against a beatable Dallas defense. There were some of those, but not nearly as many as I expected. I saw about equal parts of at least three different problems: 1) Cousins not taking a deeper option on a throw. 2) No receivers sent deep - all short routes. 3) No deep receivers open, usually because there were only one or two deep receivers and they were in double or triple coverage. Luckily, two of these three are correctable with a better passing scheme. Examples of all are below. Game score: -2 (cumulative season to date: +3) Rushing offense: I’m beginning to think that the narrative that “the Vikings' offensive line is good at run-blocking but bad at pass-blocking” is a myth. I saw very little for Cook in this game. Late in the second half there was one series where the offensive line was opening holes for Cook. Otherwise, it was a lot of tough running for Cook and Mattison, leading to them having a difficult day. Game score: -1 (cumulative season to date: -2) Pass defense: Horrible. In the look-back into the Panthers' game, I complimented Bashaud Breeland; well, he stunk it up in this game. Some of this is on the coaching; some the players. The Vikings were giving a huge cushion to the Cowboys' receivers, and the receivers were just taking everything from them. It was everybody, too. The deep touchdown to Cedrick Wilson is probably the most lost I’ve seen Harrison Smith as he flailed wildly searching for a tackle. Game score: -2 (cumulative season to date: +4) Run defense: These guys mostly held up. Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard are a potent 1-2 combo, so to hold them to a combined 78 yards and 3.3 yards-per-carry is doing your job. Game score: +2 (cumulative season to date: +2) Special teams: Hit 4/4 kicks for +1, then have Jordan bury a few punts in the corner for a +2 rating. I’m not going to downgrade this simply because the return game had few opportunities. Game score: +2 (cumulative season to date +0) Coaching: There isn’t a rating low enough to capture how unprepared the team was. The passing game was uninspired. The defense was playing soft against an inexperienced quarterback. It was like Mike Zimmer and company were scared of the Dallas Cowboys. They were bad at everything I can think of: overall game plan, play design, play calling, clock management, timeout management, game flow awareness, halftime adjustments, getting your best player the ball (two catches on four targets for Jefferson), press conferences and interviews (obviously), attempting to look less confused than Kellen Moore, wardrobe choices, pre-game meal planning, timing traffic on the way to the stadium, parking sport selection, and it’s Zimmer’s fault some birds hit the stadium. Just awful. Game score: -2 (cumulative season to date: -5) Here I thought the Carolina game was a complete crap show! This game was even harder to watch (I had to turn it off halfway through and come back to this). If I tried to provide a complete list of “interesting plays” to be fixed, all it would do is provide a depressing example of how not to play football. That said, if you have any memories or things you looked up and want a closer look, post away and I’ll happily pull plays and share my opinion! Just don’t expect to find anything happy. The only thing I will provide highlights of is how I was rating the passing design plays plus one defensive example. Here’s an example of a failed third-down conversion from the 30-yard line. Great pass protection, but five receivers in the pattern and nobody runs a route more than seven yards downfield. The defense doesn’t even have to work to sit on every receiver:  The next example is actually a successful play, but shows what kind of deep options there were, and how poor they are. I highlighted Conklin to show that he gets absolutely no separation, only an absolutely perfect throw by Cousins and strong hands by Conklin makes this play. Jefferson has a safety over the top; a throw to him would be into solid double coverage. Thielen has two defenders sitting on his short curl. One of my biggest problems with this play is that noted deep threat KJ Osborn is running a short cross between three defenders. On this play, Cousins would have been justified in taking the check down to Cook, but went for 1:1 coverage to Conklin.  Here’s an example of Cousins taking an overly-conservative throw. I think Cousins could hit the window between defenders and hit Thielen. KJ Osborn is also 1:1 versus a safety; Osborn isn’t as open as he looks in this picture because the safety has already seen the pass in the air to Conklin and is breaking away from Osborn, but it’s a possibility. This was third and 12, so the only thing the conservative throw accomplished was to avoid any risk of a turnover taking points off the board. There was very little to be gained by checking down.  I'm not going to let it slide that the Vikings' offense, despite a multitude of abject failures, is still calling the "just stand there" route pattern to get their receivers killed. This is such a complete waste of Thielen's and Jefferson's talents it's inexcusable. This time I added a filter and cartoonish arrows to make it look like the screen shot is from the 1950s where garbage like this belongs:  I also planned to look for some typical plays of busted coverages to see if I could figure out who was at fault. There were too many to choose from. I picked this one because it had multiple problems: Breeland playing soft then getting spun around by Amari Cooper - and - Xavier Woods slow to rotate over. There were other examples, but this was the best illustration I could find.  Finally, the Cowboys' game-winning drive was eight plays. The following things happened on that eight-play drive: - Bashaud Breeland deflects a pass, only to have the deflection bounce into Amari Cooper’s hands for a 33-yard gain. - Amari Cooper fumbles, but the ball goes out of bounds. - Game-sealing turnover nullified by penalty. - Vikings' penalty for consecutive timeouts on defense on a Cowboys' third-and-16 attempt. - On third and 11, Mackenzie Alexander, Anthony Barr, Xavier Woods and Cameron Dantzler all miss tackles on Ezekiel Elliot; giving up a gain of 15. That’s a lot of crazy stuff, I have no idea how to classify it all. Final Score: 16-20 Loss This is the last really meaningful game in the series of looking at 2021 for 2022 opportunities, because this is the last game Danielle Hunter played. Am I being a bit melodramatic |
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I learned more from rewatching this game than I expected - much more. I thought this would be a simple case of "offense can score, defense stinks", but the offense happened to have the ball last, so the Vikings won. Turns out there is a lot more I can get from this for 2022 (other game reviews are linked at the bottom of the post. Click here to read article Interesting stat: Packers' points-per-drive in the first half: 2 (this even ignores the one play kneel down or it would be 1.7) Packers' points-per-drive in the second half: 7 When I was watching the game, I was looking for what changed. Key play: The Packers' third touchdown, this one from Rodgers to Davante Adams. Mackenzie Alexander completely falls for Adams' move fame and gets badly beaten. Here’s the play:  There were so many questions and trends this play highlights. First, the coverage - the Vikings had been playing really good coverage the first half of this game. The Packers’ first two touchdowns were both extended scramble drills where coverage held up longer than expected. If the Vikings had any kind of pass rush at all, they could have really set the Packers back. Unfortunately, Armon Watts was the best pass rusher on the field (stats say it was Sheldon Richardson, but I liked watching Watts). Watching the 2021 season over has made me a big fan of Watts, but he can’t be the team’s best pass rusher; he just can’t. Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith would have had a massive impact on this game, and that's where we look forward to 2022. Second, why was it so easy to get Davante Adams 1:1 versus Mackenzie Alexander? Bashaud Breeland had a good game, and Patrick Peterson had a great game. This highlights some of the inflexibility of the Zimmer system. I get it. Patrick Peterson plays outside, but Adams versus Alexander is ridiculously one-sided. It has to be tougher to get that matchup than to just put Adams in the slot - putting a top receiver in the slot isn't exactly an earth-shattering move; there should be a better solution than "oh well, here's a touchdown." This was my answer to the “interesting stat question”. Pass rush wasn’t good most of the game, but the secondary played really well through the first two and a half quarters. The Packers just started scheming away from Peterson and Breeland. This wasn’t the only play where the Packers had a slot receiver running against an overmatched defender. On the long touchdown that tied the game at 31, Marques Valdez-Scantling just ran a post route against air (or Xavier Woods, one of them). I’ve ripped on Woods, but I can’t be too hard on him for this play when he’s completely on an island like this:  (Sidetrack on this play: if you can’t get pressure with six pass rushers, what’s the point of blitzing?) Third is awareness. The defensive line actually had a chance to make the key play tough on the Packers. Griffen, for some reason, pulled up on his rush as if he expected Rodgers to run past him. You can see in the image above that Griffen is unblocked but not in a running position as he stutter-steps. I don’t get why he did that. Then to add insult to injury, he hit Rodgers (a tiny bit) late and drew a flag. Maybe it’s just a mistake on Griffen’s part, but it was strange to see when there was a blitz set up to get someone free, then that someone hesitated. Ratings: None of the ratings are very clean this week. They all have huge caveats that could be argued up or down. For what I expected to be one of the best games of the season, the replay is very mixed. All the inconsistencies of the rest of the season are still here, but the Vikings just got a few more breaks in this game. I’m rating -2 to 2 and sticking to no 0’s given out. Passing offense: This has to be a positive rating simply because of the stat line: 341 YDs, 3 TDs, 0 INT. However, for numbers this good, I saw a lot of warts. Cousins threw into coverage deep, wasting several shots that had little chance of success. The offensive line held up, but it wasn’t a great game for Darrisaw with seven pressures. Even Jefferson made a mistake on a route that would have led to an interception if not for a roughing-the-passer penalty: I’m being harder on the passing offense to ask the question: how would this game have gone if Jaire Alexander played? I think there is another gear needed and available in 2022. Game score: +1 (cumulative season to date: +5) Rushing offense: I watched the game before looking at the box score, and the box score surprised me: 90 yards and a 3.1 yards-per-carry. I had expected fewer yards but higher yards-per-carry. For having 29 carries, the running game was largely invisible. They only converted six of the Vikings' 25 first downs via the run. I thought about marking this as only a -1, except for this play. As you look at this play, try and figure out who player “A” and “B” are (the best clue is the hair visible on player "B", but not "A", Osborn? Cook? Mattison?):  This play is a 3rd-and-1 with the Vikings leading 16-3 with six minutes left in the first half. This is the perfect time to establish the run, convert a first down and potentially put the Packers in a huge hole before halftime (with the Vikings receiving the second-half kickoff). From this angle, the play looks blocked well enough to gain the one yard needed. The reason I downgraded the rushing offense from -1 to -2 is because player "B" is Dalvin Cook. Okay, so with no long hair, "A" must be Kene Nwangwu? Nope. What!?! That makes no sense; he's the only other fast guy without long hair? Who’s player “A” running with the ball then? Surprise! It’s CJ Ham. Instead of having a fast guy like Cook, Mattison or Nwangwu do fast-guy stuff, the Vikings used this critical moment to give the ball to a slow guy. The down was not converted. Game score: -2 (cumulative season to date: -6) Pass defense: Which group do I rate? The defensive ends who got very little pressure? Or the defensive tackles who got two sacks? Do I rate the coverage that held Aaron Rodgers to one touchdown on his first five drives? Or the coverage that allowed three touchdowns on three drives in the second half? The first half was a +2 rating and the second half was a -2 rating. And since the Vikings won, they get a + instead of a -; they did enough. Game score: +1 (cumulative season to date: +6) Run defense: The box score shows 5.0 yards-per-carry allowed, but that was brought up by a Rodgers scramble. This group was effective enough but nothing exciting. Game score: +1 (cumulative season to date: +3) Special teams: Greg Joseph missed an extra point and Westbrook dropped a punt, but a game-winning field goal will gloss over everything. Game score: +1 (cumulative season to date +5) Coaching: It’s tempting to mark the coaching staff down when the passing game fell apart, but overall, the gameplan worked. The Packers figured it out in the second half, but I’ll give the coaches credit for mostly being aggressive. The really boneheaded stuff seemed play-specific with a good underlying plan. Game score: +1 (cumulative season to date: -3) Final score: 34-31 Vikings win! Prior Weeks: Game 1 @ CIN Game 2 @ ARI Game 3 vs SEA Game 4 vs CLE Game 5 vs DET Game 6 @ CAR Game 7 vs DAL Game 8 @ BAL Game 9 @ LAC I learned more from rewatching this game than I expected - much more. I thought this would be a simple case of "offense can score, defense stinks", but the offense happened to have the ba |
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The Lord of the Risk In Not Gaining sh*t? The Lord of the Reality In Not Going Short? Yeah something like that. Click here to read article  Like the eagles of Middle Earth, when you need to get to the sticks on 3rd down, Cousins will get you ... part of the way there. He wasn't the king however. I set out to find the true king of the checkdown, and apparently that title belongs to Jarod Goff in 2021. Cousins is about where he always is, league average xD. AKA Super Bowl caliber baby!!  Oh wait.For this exercise in futility, the definition of a checkdown is simply throwing short of the sticks on 3rd down. I make no distinction between a screen and an actual checkdown cuz ain't nobody got time for dat xD. Yeah unfortunately, I got 372 columns of play by play data here but none of them mention what type of play was called, so all I can do is go by the numbers. Yards to go on 3rd down, minus air yards. If someone has the screen data, I'll gladly recalculate the results. Otherwise this will have to do because I'm not watching all 4806 3rd down passes to figure that out myself. You need a minimum of 200 pass attempts to qualify. CHECKDWN AVG 3RD SEASDOT = average depth of target Yep, Kirk Cousins, he's just like that Matt Stafford fella. And it's not because Stafford joined the Rams. I checked last year and Stafford was 29th out of 36 qualifiers at 33.85% with the Lions. Cousins was 12th at 46.15%. How bout 2019? More of the same, Stafford 27th/33 at 34.94% and Cousins 17th at 39.02%. His best season with the Vikings, his only playoff appearance. Coincidence?Cousins 3 highest checkdown games were all losses, Cowboys (80.00%), Bengals (64.29%), and Cardinals (62.50%). 10 3rd down passes in that Cowboys game, 8 short of the sticks. His 2 lowest games were wins, at Bears (9.09%) and Seahawks (20.00%). 11 3rd down passes in that Bears game, 10 past the sticks, for 5 conversions. 8 of 10 past the sticks in that Seahawks game for a whopping 7 conversions. Moar of dose pwease! Fun fact: You convert 3rd downs about twice as often throwing past the sticks as you do throwing short and praying for Rudolph to break a couple tackles (51.2% to 25.7%). To be fair, your INT rate is a little higher too (4.00% to 2.40%). ..... BUT! How bout that higher TD rate (8.11% to 2.88%)?  The evidence keeps pointing toward aggressiveness as being the more successful strategy. Past Checkdown Kings: 2014 Alex Smith 65.08% (Cousins 4th at 59.62%) FYI Teddy Checkwater is pretty much top 5 every year.  The Lord of the Risk In Not Gaining sh*t? The Lord of the Reality In Not Going Short? Yeah something like that.
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 @jtmnskol is there a metric that shows how well QBs/Offenses rank after the defense has created a turnover? Where has MN been with a Cousins led team? Seems like Kirk hasn’t been one to capitalize and score once the offense is provided the ball following a turnover. The good folks at Pro-Football Reference bring us these stats: The Vikings had 21 drives that started after an interception or fumble. They scored on 12 of them. That 57% mark was 14th. However, seven of the 12 scores were field goals and they had the second most punts (8) after a turnover. I’d say based on that your instinct is correct. I’m not sure there’s anything actionable that they can do better to score off turnovers but the top teams at scoring touchdowns were the Cardinals, Rams, Packers, Chargers, Colts, Titans and Bucs. Seems like it might be important. Maybe there’s something about the Vikings feeling like they got a turnover and didn’t want to give it right back by being too aggressive? Or just tiny sample size. I’m not sure.  A couple things to keep in mind. The data doesn't include turnovers that were immediately returned for TD's by the defense (pick 6's etc). I debated about including them but I believe assignment was about what the offense does after a turnover. I also didn't include missed FG's, which should probably be included in the scoring percentage because the offense technically did its job getting them into scoring position, but it is what it is. Maybe next time. 3-n-out percentage includes any drive of 3 plays that didn't lead to a first down or a TD, so not just punts. If you threw an INT on 3rd down, it went down as a 3-n-out etc. If the defense recovered a turnover in FG range, you ran 3 plays and kicked a FG, it's down as a 3-n-out. Note to self: in the future, 4-n-out drives that end on downs should also count as 3-n-outs, which I just realized but I'm not doing over. First up, we got the 4 year totals right here, right off the bat. Sorted by percentage of turnover drives that led to points. I think most of the columns are self explanatory, and once again, the rank in each column is in (parenthesis). See anything good? Bueller? ... Bueller? TAKEAWAYS SCORE% TD% PUNT% 3nOUT% AVG START AVG GAIN And here are the year by year results, once again sorted by scoring percent. 2018 TAKEAWAYS SCORE% TD% PUNT% 3nOUT% AVG START AVG GAIN 2019 TAKEAWAYS SCORE% TD% PUNT% 3nOUT% AVG START AVG GAIN 2020 TAKEAWAYS SCORE% TD% PUNT% 3nOUT% AVG START AVG GAIN 2021 TAKEAWAYS SCORE% TD% PUNT% 3nOUT% AVG START AVG GAIN Just the Vikings: TAKEAWAYS SCORE% TD% PUNT% 3nOUT% AVG START AVG GAIN Conclusion: Smells like the Vikings need a new investment firm Up next, how good is your defense at minimizing the damage after your offense turns the ball over?No Preview Available |
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What a great game by the Vikings! I have to stop myself and remember the point of this series is to look for things to learn about 2022, not to just rehash 2021; because if I lose focus, this post would turn into a fun read looking at awesome plays and I wouldn’t learn anything new. So rather than just recap a bunch of highlights I’m going to try to focus on plays that might indicate something changing. Click here to read article Actually… no, forget that… here’s some awesome plays… Play 1: 1st and 16 from the six after a holding penalty. This is how a screen is supposed to work! The Chargers bring furious pressures, Mattison chips a defensive lineman, and Cousins looks right causing the only practical defender to fall over.  This play looks even better from the sideline angle, where you can see three defenders not even in a position to be involved and how far away the guy who eventually makes the tackle is. This is a smart screen, not a stupid screen like we've seen far too many times doing this series.  Play 2: This is what happens when Justin Herbert assumes Keenen Allen versus a linebacker is a plus matchup for him and throws his way without remembering who Eric Kendricks is. After Kendricks takes the ball away like parents take their little kids’ Halloween candy (that is to say: laughing, while their family is watching, and without shame), he proceeds to completely own Herbert in a “who has the cooler hair?” contest, too.  Play 3: The Chargers laughably think that three defenders are enough to keep Jefferson from getting the ball. This was a 2nd and 20 play which set up the Vikings' first touchdown. Jefferson then attempts to also enter the “who has the cooler hair?” contest late, which is technically closed, but we’ll allow it. The only bad thing about this play is that Cousins might have had Westbrook for a touchdown (maybe... not sure if the safety could get there).  Really this isn’t even being fair to Jefferson because I skipped his 18-yard catch on 3rd and 15 just before this because it didn’t look as cool on a screen grab. Play 4: Situation is 4th down, Vikings trailing 13-17 late in the third quarter. Chargers get a free rusher straight up the middle, two defenders in front of Conklin in the back of the end zone. No problem. Touchdown! After the play, Conklin decides to enter his Khal Drogo style against Kendricks and Jefferson; that’s not going to win, but credit for trying.  Play 5: Tries to answer the question of: how many guys do you need to stop Dalvin Tomlinson from knocking down a ball? The answer here is not conclusive on this play; we just know it’s more than two.  Play 6: The Vikings are holding a slim 20-17 lead in the 4th. This is sort of the time when the offense would typically disappear, and that is looking like a risk on 3rd and 9. The discussion on the telecast sets this play up better than I can: “This is the area, Mark, where the Chargers are the best in the NFL on 3rd and long.” - Talking-head-about-to-be-made-to-look-silly “Awww yeah, and they’re so tough and so stingy; they’re so sticky in coverage. And this crowd is really coming alive.” - Other-talking-head-about-to-be-made-to-look-silly “You forget your place, plebs, I know where holes in coverage are.” - Adam Thielen (I assume)  “That was fun. I think I’m gonna do that again on 3rd and 20 in a little bit to set up a game-winning play…” - Adam Thielen (foreshadowing) Play 7: I was trying to limit this to one play per guy, but I’m sorry, I just can’t… I just… look at this … on third down with three minutes left. It even needs a video.  That is a completely uncoverable 27 yards. The Chargers even challenged this just so they could watch it a few more times. Now on to the real breakdown… Interesting stat: Cameron Dantzler’s stat line: 4 targets / 2 catches allowed / 10 yards allowed / -2 air yards allowed. This was with Patrick Peterson not playing, so this isn’t a fluff stat that comes from playing 10 plays. Dantzler played 97% of defensive snaps this game. Dantzler also allowed a catch to Jared Cook for 0 yards that was nullified by penalty (hands-to-the-face on a defensive lineman). Here are the catches he gave up:  The second, Mike Williams comes behind the line of scrimmage. I’d argue this completion isn’t caused by poor coverage by Dantzler.  Key play: The first play of the game was a checkdown to Chris Herndon, the sort of thing that has killed Vikings' drives to this point in the season because the checkdowns are thrown to receivers standing and waiting for the ball 5-10 yards behind the line of scrimmage while a defender is shadowing them. But look at this one…  Herndon was doing some non-traditional things for this offense. He was beyond the line of scrimmage. He was running. He wasn’t set up right behind some other players to make defending him redundant. He was moving away from defenders, so the result was a 14-yard gain. It’s like there was a whole other offensive coordinator for this game. The Vikings only called one “just stand there” route, and that was late in the game after hitting several deep passes, so it worked for 11 yards. I didn’t forget the purpose of this series. The lesson learned from this game is why the Vikings brought back so many of these veterans. A lot of these awesome plays (and more I didn’t show) were really a high degree of difficulty. The Chargers' defense played well, and Justin Herbert throwing to Mike Williams and Keenan Allen is not a slouch offense. A reminder on the scoring I’m using: each unit is awarded -2 to +2 points depending on how much the group contributed to the game (no 0’s - you either win or lose). Passing offense: Cousins was the better quarterback on the day, and it wasn’t particularly close. The Vikings converted some long third downs in key situations, the receivers were sure-handed, the offensive line played well (Joey Bosa was quiet with one sack and two pressures). The entire group was strong. Game score: +2 (cumulative season to date: +4) Rushing offense: Not a lot generated in the run game. They did power in one touchdown, but that would not have been enough if Cousins, Jefferson and Thielen weren’t playing out of their minds. Game score: -1 (cumulative season to date: -4) Pass defense: Prior games I have credited the pass rush for making the secondary look good. This game the secondary really held their own. Even a pass interference on Breeland was pretty ticky-tacky in my opinion. Game score: +2 (cumulative season to date: +5) Run defense: Fantasy football says Austin Ekeler is a stud; not this game. When the opposing team’s quarterback has the longest run of the day and it’s only 11 yards, the run defense had a good day. Game score: +2 (cumulative season to date: +2) Special teams: No missed kicks, and Westbrook broke a long return. Solid contribution. Game score: +4 (cumulative season to date +4) Coaching: The games before this the team looked unprepared and uninspired. In this game, they came out and played with purpose and focus in a game many expected them to lose. Game score: +2 (cumulative season to date: -4) Game result: 27-20 Vikings' win Here are the other games from this series if you want to look back: Game 1 @ CIN Game 2 @ ARI Game 3 vs SEA Game 4 vs CLE Game 5 vs DET Game 6 @ CAR Game 7 vs DAL Game 8 @ BAL What a great game by the Vikings! I have to stop myself and remember the point of this series is to look for things to learn about 2022, not to just rehash 2021; because if I lose focus, this post |
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I’m continuing my look back at the 2021 season, looking for opportunities and changes that could be made with largely the same personnel for 2022. Click here to read article Game 1 @ CIN I’ll be continuing my scoring of each unit (passing offense, rushing offense, pass defense, run defense, special teams, and coaching). For each game, each unit will get +2, +1, -1, or -2 (no 0’s - everyone has to be positive or negative). Interesting stat: Sacks by Arizona – 1. This wasn’t a fluke either; the Vikings allowed a pressure rate of 20%. This was below the Cardinals' season average of 25%, and the Vikings' season average of 26%. Dalvin Cook also had a really strong game running, but the pass protection stood out more because the 2021 Vikings were supposed to be bad at it. I picked this because for the rest of this post, I want to remember: the Vikings' offensive line won the day versus the Cardinals' defensive line. Key play: I’m purposefully not going to pick the 77-yard touchdown pass to Rondale Moore because that play should never have had a chance to happen. Instead, I’m looking at the 3:15 mark in the second quarter (the Vikings' drive immediately before the big play to Moore). Re-watching the game, there were three things going on at this point: 1) Cousins was absolutely eviscerating the Cardinals' defense at every level: short, medium and deep. After one and a half quarters, he was 8/9 for 122 yards and 3 touchdowns. 2) Cook looked like a rhinoceros running through a pre-school class. 3) Kyler Murray’s mobility was clearly putting stress on the Vikings' defense; the results were mixed. The Vikings had made some good plays with the pass rush and stuffed some short passes, but Murray’s mobility had also broken down the coverage. If you look back at the box score, you will see that Murray had great stats at this point. He had touchdowns on two of the previous three drives - one passing and one running. However, this game was right on the edge of swinging towards the Vikings. Highlighting two plays from the Cardinals' prior drive: First, what does this play look like (Eric Kendricks highlighted)?  Does that look like an interception to you? Because it looks like the Vikings' best coverage linebacker lining up a tipped passed for an interception. But no, that is not an interception; that is a view of a 34- yard completion to #87 tight end Maxx Williams after the ball bounces off Kendricks’ hands and straight to Williams, thus getting the Cardinals out of a third and long. That was definitely a bad bounce for the Vikings. Next play, this was a touchdown saving hit by Bashaud Breeland that jarred the ball lose from Rondale Moore.  Say what you want about Breeland’s play the rest of the year, this play was great. He absolutely put the “bash” in Bashaud, drilling Moore behind the line of scrimmage (which was the Vikings' 2-yard line) and set up Nick Vigil for a fumble recovery. Or would have - if the refs on replay didn’t rule that Vigil’s foot was in the air when he caught the fumble and gave the ball back to the Cardinals. Here is another bad break; no turnover, and Kyler Murray runs in a touchdown on the next play. That’s a long detour to get to the key play of the game for me. But the detour is important because looking at this play you need to know that the Vikings' offense is playing really well, and despite what the box score says, the Vikings' defense is making things really difficult for the Cardinals. It's only a matter of time before they finish a few plays (like two interceptions coming in the third quarter). Also relevant here is the key stat: pressure rating. The Vikings' offensive line is also playing well. There’s no need for trickery; just run them over. The Vikings have the ball with 3:15 left in the half and a 20-14 lead; their last two drives were both nine plays and over five minutes. They can absolutely extend the lead and run out the clock. Then this:  Let’s try some trickery for no good reason. Let’s have four of the Vikings' linemen abandon Cousins and go block for Thielen; Cousins, of course, can just run around like Kyler Murray. Right? To Cousins’ credit, he did avoid the rush long enough to let everyone get in position. This is also not a checkdown; this is very clearly designed and called. But it was so slow to develop, here is how it played out a step later:  Looking at this second snip, for orientation, the line of scrimmage is the 25. This play is a loss of yardage on first down because the play-calling was too cute. It killed a drive that could have buried the Cardinals going into halftime. Two of the next three plays were Cook getting injured trying to convert a third down and a 77-yard touchdown going the other way to give the Cardinals the lead. Now, onto the ratings for each group. Because there were so many close calls, the ratings for this game are going to be extremely mixed. Passing offense: Cousins and company shredded the Cardinals the first half. Results in the second half were more mixed; partly because Cook wasn’t the same after his injury, and there were some more penalties. For a deciding factor, I’ll look at crunch time, and I’m not going to mark down this unit because down by one with 81 seconds left, Cousins converted the third-and-long, followed by two more clutch passes to set up a game-deciding kick. Game score: +2 (cumulative season to date: +3) Rushing offense: Not a bad game after a dominant first half. The question is how much do I downgrade this part of the team for disappearing in the second half? Cook didn’t look nearly as dominant after that first-half injury. Game score: +1 (cumulative season to date: -1) Pass defense: Very difficult to rate. Do I rate the unit that blew a deep coverage inside two minutes of the first half for the second game in a row? Or do I rate the unit that opened the second half with two interceptions on the first three drives, including a pick-six? The pass rush was there, and they were close to two more turnovers. They did get three sacks and held DeAndre Hopkins to just four catches and 54 yards, but it can’t be a good score when Kyler Murray throws for 400 yards (his highest season total). It’s funny that this -1 is probably about three plays away from being a +2. Game score: -1 (cumulative season to date: +/- 0) Run defense: No real complaints with this. As I re-watched the game, I barely noticed the Cardinals' rushing attack because there was so much going on in every other phase of the game. But this unit did give up a high yards-per-carry to Chase Edmonds on eight carries. Game score: +1 (cumulative season to date: 0) Special teams: Another almost impossible-to-rate group. The thing everyone will remember is the missed 37-yard field goal as time expired. But at the end of this game, Greg Joseph was 9/11 (81% on the season, including 3/3 from 50+ yards. Also, no big returns given up. As a whole, good, but kickers can’t have a good rating when they miss the game-winning kick; thems the rules! Game score: -1 (cumulative season to date +1) Coaching: Strategically? Really good. Tactically? Terrible. The game plan and preparation were both good enough to win the game. But why flip to the page in the playbook titled “stupid screens”? It makes no sense. It doesn’t even play to Thielen’s strengths; if you want to call “stupid screen left”, throw the ball to a kick-return guy like Osborn (who already broke one big play this game). And that wasn’t even the worst tactical crime. With 40 seconds left, and the ball on the 19, the Vikings decided to run out the clock and kick a field goal. The last three plays before that, Cousins was 3/3 for 29 yards - and the Cardinals had showed nothing all day to slow down the Vikings' pass attack. JUST DO THAT TWO MORE TIMES AND YOU WIN! Also, the squib kick with 21 seconds at the end of the first half gifted the Cardinals a short field and three points that would be critical later. I almost want to upgrade this to -1 because of how well things worked between blunders, but that is too many big mistakes by the guys on the sideline. Game score: -2 (cumulative season to date: -4) Finally, I wanted to take a close look at the deep play to Moore. Questions I have: Was this a bad scheme? Bad execution? Guys just getting beat? Here's what I think happened. After the tight end cleared Vigil's zone, Vigil was very slow to rotate down to cover the back coming out of the backfield. Mackensie Alexander saw Murray start to scramble and thought the pass was going to the back. Then this happened - I highlighted where I think the Vikings players should be going.  This looks like a complete boneheaded move by Alexander, bailing on his job to try and cover for Vigil - assuming he knew where the ball was going. It was not a matter of Moore beating his guy. Murray's pass was so underthrown that Moore had to stop and wait for it. Had Alexander done his job, this is probably a completion to Edmonds for 5-10 yards, not a game-changing play. So close and yet so far away. Right, Vikings fans? Final Score: 33-34 Loss I’m continuing my look back at the 2021 season, looking for opportunities and changes that could be made with largely the same personnel for 2022. |
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This game review is going to take a different approach than the first seven looked back upon. The purpose of this entire series is to look at what 2022 could be, not to just rehash losses. I’m going to highlight two plays symptomatic of everything that went wrong in games 1-7. Interestingly, this game featured two of the worst plays of the entire season - one on offense, and one on defense. Both plays are examples of trends that went wrong; and fixing either of these will have a significant positive impact on 2022. Click here to read article Because these two plays are perfect stand-ins for all the problems of 2021, I added them to a poll. The first several games I was looking for example plays that might be opportunities for the Vikings to play better without depending on significant changes from players on the roster. Those weeks are here. Game 1 @ CIN Game 2 @ ARI Game 3 vs SEA Game 4 vs CLE Game 5 vs DET Game 6 @ CAR Game 7 vs DAL Interesting stat: Lamar Jackson 386 total yards, broken down: First-half rushing: 63 Second-half rushing: 57 First-half passing: 65 Second-half passing: 201 First-half points: 10 (7 following a 42-yard penalty) Second-half points: 24 I picked this to point out that rushing yards by Lamar Jackson almost don’t matter. Defense is going to come down to coverage, taking away the pass was the most critical thing in this game. Interesting play: With 30 seconds left in the first half, Xavier Woods committed a 42-yard pass interference penalty; this isn’t the interesting play. The interesting play happened two plays earlier when Lamar Jackson took a nearly identical deep shot to the same receiver. Justin Tucker was warming up; the Ravens were making it clear they were going to take a few deep shots and settle for a field goal. The Vikings should have seen the penalty play coming a mile away (conversion rate: two plays = one mile) Here is the pass interference. This is the first nomination in the “Fix This First” poll. Lamar Jackson created extra time, but even using his legs, the coverage was in a good position. This was probably a successful play until Xavier Woods ran into Marquise Brown for an easy pass interference call.  Something new For this game, I was trying to figure out if issues with 2021 were systematic (and therefore can be fixed with a new coaching system) or performance (and require better players) based. To look at this, I wanted to add some commentary around the game, so I spent more time watching the press conferences following the game. There is always the caveat “coaches can lie in press conferences”, but Zimmer had extremely good recall of games, when asked questions that he liked, he would specifically call out specific plays rather than ever giving generalized answers (for questions he didn’t like, he just dismissed the reporter with one- word answers). The press conferences for this game shed a bit of new insight. Zimmer - Postgame Zimmer - Monday after film review Knowing Zimmer is thinking of specific examples, there were a couple of answers that are illuminating. On defense Zimmer, from press conferences - Asked about injuries in the secondary: We were trying to prevent big plays, we had the pass interference that led to a touchdown so that was not that good, then late in the game they hit Brown on a couple throws to get the ball down there. Question: How do you think Cam Bynum did and how tough was it to adjust on the fly with Harrison Smith out? He made the interception, and for the most part he was in the right place today. He made a couple of mistakes. Question: Does the offensive mindset change when you are ahead? [Talked about blitzes and defensive breakdowns.] Play 1: Boyd was covering the slot receiver, and Brown came out of the backfield. Brown breaks a tackle along the sideline and takes it up field for 20.  Play 2: Brown was 1:1 with Boyd, catches the ball on a comeback, then runs around Woods (crossing all the way back across the 50) and turns up field to about the 35.  Play 3: Deep out, tackled shortly after catch.  Conclusion: On all of these plays, the system had Kris Boyd 1:1 against Marquise Brown. None of these are particularly difficult completions. If this is scheming to just “take away the deep ball”, then I don’t see the point because there isn't much ... taking away of the deep ball. On offense Zimmer, from press conferences - How tough is it when the time of possession is so lopsided? Well, we were playing pretty well on defense, then got worn down a little bit. We didn’t convert third downs in the second half, that was a big thing. It was another game where you started quick offensively and then kind of struggled a bit, can you point to anything with consistency? It’s one of those dilemmas, we come out and score on the first series and then what happened there towards the end of the second quarter we started getting some penalties. I know on the third downs it was 3rd and 11 or 12, something like that. The conclusion I make is “things are fine if we can avoid penalties”. Let’s examine that. Here are all the third downs in the second half and overtime: First drive - 3rd and 2: incompletion to Adam Thielen, converted on the next pay via fake punt. This was a manageable third down. There was a holding penalty on second down, but an 18-yard completion wiped it out. Penalties did not make this third down more difficult. First drive – 3rd and 11: following a second-and-20 caused by penalty. Not converted. Penalties at fault. Second drive – 3rd and 18: This was caused by running Dalvin Cook into a blitz for -8 yards, three-and-out drive. No penalty influence. Third drive – 3rd and 3: Converted, no penalty influence. Third drive – 3rd and 9: No penalties, incomplete pass, fourth-and-9 was converted via pass. Overtime drive - 3rd and 9: No penalties, made difficult by a terrible swing pass design. Conclusion: That’s six third downs; one of which was made overly difficult by a penalty versus two that were made difficult by poor plays. There are two problems with this. There is a systemic issue of Zimmer thinking, “things are fine, it’s just the penalties”. That mis-read of what was wrong likely went a long way to costing Zimmer his job. There is also a second problem because some of those third downs were made difficult by poor play; this has more to do with players. It’s time to reference that second play from the “Fix This First” poll. This is the first play on offense after the turnover; a field goal wins the game. This was a swing pass to Cook; I think it was designed to be a pass to Cook, not a deeper shot. If it was a deeper shot, that’s probably even worse; Jefferson’s out-route just short of the 45 was completely covered. Thielen was triple-covered. Nobody else was out of the backfield.  So, on the most critical play of the game, Cook catches the ball and faces this:  There is no chance. This is extremely frustrating, to say the very least. For the sake of the series, I will continue my effort of rating each individual unit for the game based on the -2 to 2 scale I've used so far. Passing offense: Decently clutch here. Had enough conversions and touchdowns to win. But failed late and had some holding penalties and featured the single-worst designed swing pass of the season. Game score: -1 (cumulative season to date: +2) Rushing offense: How much does a single 66-yard run salvage an otherwise terrible day? Not very much. In fact, 81 of Cook’s 110 yards came on just two runs - one each on the first two series. Nothing outside that. Game score: -1 (cumulative season to date: -3) Pass defense: I’m going to be generous and only hand out a -1 here. There was one good half, and this group did suffer some injuries in the game. Game score: -1 (cumulative season to date: +3) Run defense: I’m okay with ignoring the 120 yards to Jackson; I’d rather he run than throw. It’s the 127 to the other two backs that was the issue. Game score: -2 (cumulative season to date: +0) Special teams: Perfect on kicks, kick-return for a touchdown, and no big returns allowed. Check, check, check. Game score: +2 (cumulative season to date +2) Coaching: See everything above. Game score: -1 (cumulative season to date: -6) Final Score: 31-34 OT Loss This game review is going to take a different approach than the first seven looked back upon. The purpose of this entire series is to look at what 2022 could be, not to just rehash losses. I’m |
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So anyway ... I've developed my own little stat system to play around with. We can work on the acronym later Click here to read article , but I've really put my new Ryzen 5 5600X and Excel to the test with some of this data lately, including this one, which I think I had to redo 17 times because I kept forgetting to dot an i or carry a 1. At 7 minutes per compiling, the Pact™ was starting to sound like the better plan.Well that was 3 sentences long so I imagine I lost half of you already, but we got 3879 more words to go in this thesis according to the word counter below, if you include numbers. So let me see if I can explain the madness with this one. It looks at the offensive/defensive strength of a team in a "strength of schedule" sorta way, but instead of wins, it's about points and yards. I can do any stat, but I've chosen points and yards this time. My attempt to rank the offenses and defenses of a team in a more fair way? Best of all, I can compare teams across different eras, which was the main goal of this project, but more on that later. Sorry, the Nemesis -tem method won't work with this system buddy. Fair as in, teams aren't just ranked by how many points they've scored or yards they've accumulated, but instead, the offensive and defensive strength of your opponents are factored into the equation. Is the 5th ranked offense actually better than the 10th ranked offense if it played a much easier defensive schedule? Probably because the needle doesn't move too much for most teams lol, but I've seen teams move up/down the rankings by double digits in some categories. 2001 Dolphins, 1987 Broncos etc. Oh yeah, I better mention how the sausage is made ... I'll use the Vikings last game against the Bears as an example. The Vikings racked up 331 total yards against the Bears defense in that game, and the Bears had given up 315.81 yards per game to their other 16 opponents (your opponents average doesn't include what you yourself put up against them). That gives the Vikings offense a net 15.19 yards toward the system. 15.19 yards over average against that 1 opponent. Against the Panthers, the Vikings racked up 573 yards on them when they only gave up 289.38 on average otherwise, for a net of 281.63. Bravo Baby Kubes, daddy would be proud. After you tally up all 17 single game averages, the Vikings end up with a net 373.50 yards for the season. Then divide that by games played (the average average?) because we eventually want to compare teams across eras and they didn't always play the same number of games. So the 2021 Vikings offense gained an average of 21.97 yards more per game than their opponents typically allowed, which ranks them 10th in 2021 and 502nd all time (since 1960 out of 1773 teams). In the traditional offensive yards system, the Vikings ranked 12th in total yards this year, so they were actually a little better than that when you factor in the defensive strength of their opponents. Yay Kubiak! Put that on your resume big guy. If you removed the Mannion game they'd jump up to 7th at 31.46 lol. Wow, a whole 10 yards per game. That's shockingly bad. But this is a team system, so we're not doing any of those "what if" shenanigans. The Vikings weakened themselves by choosing to have Mannion on the roster. See how that works? Some teams were probably derailed by injuries etc, but too bad, next time sign more reliable players, or pony up a little extra for the crystal ball. Here are the Vikings game by game results for both offense and defense (total yards):  A couple things jump out at me. 1) there isn't a game where both the offense and defense showed up at the same time, which explains all the close games and lack of blowouts. 2) in that Bears Monday night game, neither side showed up and they still won lol. 3) even when the Vikings appear to dominate (Panthers), it still led to a close game. The Panthers offense had a -82.50 against our defense in that game, and their defense a +221.19 against our offense. Both are pretty bad so the Vikings should have won by at least 3 TD's. And on this chart I just plotted each team based on their average total yards in this system for 2021, because who doesn't love charts with little helmets?  Other than the fraudulent Packers being no better than the Eagles/Raiders, the Titans might be the most baffling #1 seed ever, which kinda explains why they lost to the Bengals, although the Bengals aren't really all that special either. And nothing explains the Steelers xD. I mean what the hell Chargers?  Now for some plain ol data, because numbers are pretty all by themselves sometimes, especially when there are this many. This first one just shows you how all the teams rank in the 8 offensive/defensive categories in this system, ranked by the best combined score in average total yards aka "TEAM SCORE" = (offensive total yards + the inverse of defensive total yards), higher the better. That's the long way of saying net yards I suppose. S.M.A.R.T.A.S.S RANKINGS Right off the bat we can already see how offensive teams have fared better than defensive. The proof? Here are the average ranks of the division winners: OFFENSE DEFENSE So much for rushings leads to winning and defense wins championships lol. The trend remains mostly consistent with the 4 conference championship teams. Blah blah blah Ryans, the possible one hit wonder. Yeah lets commit to that for 3-4 seasons ... not! But I wonder why the trophy case remained empty during the Zimmer era ? But sure Vikings, make sure you interview all those DC's.  We'll find out how smart this KAMalytics guy is because my ass didn't go to Stanford and I never worked on Wall St, but I certainly see which direction these analytics lean in the trophy case argument. But sure, those TWO 49ers games trump the whole thing.  And here are a bunch more numbers. Each of the 8 categories broken down individually. ABOVE = how many games a team went above the average their opposing defenses have allowed. The higher the better. The (RK) would be their traditional NFL points/yards rank, and DIFF would be the difference between their S.M.A.R.T.A.S.S. rank and NFL rank. OFFENSIVE POINTS: RK TM W- L-T PF-PA PLAYOFFS PPG ABOVE (RK) DIFF OFFENSE TOTAL YARDS: RK TM W- L-T PF-PA PLAYOFFS AVG/YDS ABOVE (RK) DIFF OFFENSE PASSING YARDS: RK TM W- L-T PF-PA PLAYOFFS AVG/YDS ABOVE (RK) DIFF OFFENSE RUSHING YARDS: RK TM W- L-T PF-PA PLAYOFFS AVG/YDS ABOVE (RK) DIFF Weird, look at all those terrible rushing teams in the playoffs. Not many terrible passing teams in the playoffs though, right Carson Wentz? Now for the defense, except this time the lower the better, as well as the most games "BELOW". Here we get a first glimpse of how much a team can slip in the rankings. The Buccaneers defense has been propped up by having played inferior offenses. Maybe that's why the Rams lit them up early and often. DEFENSE POINTS: RK TM W- L-T PF-PA PLAYOFFS PPG BELOW (RK) DIFF DEFENSE TOTAL YARDS: RK TM W- L-T PF-PA PLAYOFFS AVG/YDS BELOW (RK) DIFF DEFENSE PASSING YARDS: RK TM W- L-T PF-PA PLAYOFFS AVG/YDS BELOW (RK) DIFF DEFENSE RUSHING YARDS: RK TM W- L-T PF-PA PLAYOFFS AVG/YDS BELOW (RK) DIFF Defensive playoff teams look a little spread out don't they? Huh, wonder if we can draw any conclusions from that ... that could increase our odds of finally capturing one of those shiny trophies. So yeah, I did this with all 1773 teams since 1960, so who do we think owned the best offense or defense in NFL history? Because this foolproof system obviously has everything figured out. Do the '69 Vikings own the best defense ever? The '85 Bears? The 2000 Ravens (who had a pretty easy schedule)? Where does the '98 Vikings offense rank? Place your bets. Who had the best team of all time? How bout the worst? It wasn't Steckel, he came in at 1709th xD. Maybe we can even figure out when the whole "defense wins championships" myth stopped being a reality ? I mean rushing leads to winning after all am-I-right? I better order another box of crayons because I smell more charts coming.So anyway ... I've developed my own little stat system to play around with. We can work on the acronym later |
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There has been talk of Kirk Cousins being traded for many reasons, and it has left me wondering what past NFL teams have opted to do in similar situations. This article will examine what has happened to Above Average QBs after their team moved on. Note that the definition of that is fluid - I've included QBs who some will think are below that line, and a couple who were at one point above it. Still, the QBs selected were generally seen as above average or statistically were considered to be so. Click here to read article The article will be structured by the manner of which with QB was let go: Trade - We will examine other scenarios similar to Kirk's situation for a potential trade. FA - A few above average QBs were let go in free agency - they weren't at Cousins' level, but I think the situations are worth examining. Retirement - What happened after an above average QB retired? Sure, it's not all that relevant to Kirk, but I do want to see what happened when QBs who played at a similar level to Kirk call it quits. Note that all examples have occurred within the past 10/11 years. Let's begin! Trading an Above Average QB Bengals - Carson Palmer Palmer got fed up losing games with the Bengals and asked out. It was true that he didn't play as well in 2010, but the Bengals weren't going to be the ones to unlock his next level. He got traded to the Raiders for a 1st and a 2nd, which seemed like an overpay at the time, but the Bengals definitely weren't complaining. The Bengals picked Andy Dalton in a draft that was rife with QBs. They immediately went to the playoffs by going 9-7. While they never won a playoff game in Dalton's era, they successfully maintained the status quo. Summary - The Bengals immediately found Dalton in the draft and had a much better season, and led to a 9 year stretch of solid QB play. Raiders - Carson Palmer Oakland successfully coaxed poor play from Palmer and then dumped him for 6th and 7th round picks, and in 2013 named project QB Terrelle Pryor as their QB. To nobody's surprise, the move was a total flop and it led to Matt McGloin starting 6 games and even a Matt Flynn sighting. In 2014, they wisely stayed put in the 2nd round and took Derek Carr, who may be the best QB from this draft, depending on your feelings on Garoppolo. Summary - After a miserable 2013 season without Palmer, they found their QB of the future and eventually made the playoffs in 2016. Bills - Tyrod Taylor After spending 4 years as a backup QB for the Ravens, Taylor won the starting job for the Bills and helped the franchise reach their first playoff berth in 18 years, and also had a 22-20 win record and 92.5 passer rate. Taylor's 2017 season ended on a bad note as the offense crumbled, but they were able to get a 3rd round pick for him in a trade with the Browns. The following draft, the Bills traded up using 2 second round picks to jump up 9 spots and select Josh Allen with the 7th overall pick. Allen had a rough rookie year, but took a step forward in 2019 and the team made the playoffs again, followed by a borderline MVP season in 2020. The Bills are in great shape now. Summary - The Bills moved on from an average QB in Tyrod Taylor and immediately struck paydirt the following draft. 49ers - Alex Smith The former 1st overall pick selected over Aaron Rodgers, Smith had a rough first 6 years in the NFL until 2011, when Jim Harbaugh arrived and saved his career. However, the 49ers had already selected Kaepernick in the 2nd round in 2011, and after Smith got injured in 2012, the unheralded sophomore usurped the position and played his tail off. This prompted the 49ers to trade Smith to the Chiefs (while he still had 2 years, $18M on his deal). Following a Super Bowl loss, Kaep had a great 2013 season that got the team to the NFCCG again, but after that, things waned. His play was not up to his prior standards in the following seasons, with his passing numbers tumbling, but it's worth noting that he was still a very talented scrambler and he ended up running for 2300 yards in 5 seasons. Harbaugh's departure and the team's deteriorating roster were factors in Kaep's regression, but it had also seemed that NFL defenses had him figured out. Summary - The 49ers were fine moving on from Smith, and advanced to another semifinal playoff game. However, the wheels came off for the franchise in the following years, but neither Kaepernick nor Smith were preventing that. Chiefs - Alex Smith Everyone should know this one - Smith was an above average starting QB from 2013 to 2017, with the Chiefs going 50-26 in that stretch, but they only went 1-4 in the playoffs. Despite Smith's gaudy numbers, especially in 2017 - it was apparent to some that they needed to find a better QB. In 2017 they made the bold move to trade up to the 10th overall pick to take Patrick Mahomes, having him set on the bench for his first year. They traded Smith to the then-Redskins for starting CB Kendall Fuller and a 3rd round pick (Smith had 1 year, $17.7M left on his $68M deal he had inked back in 2014). We all know what happened since the trade - Mahomes won MVP in his first year as starter, and was the main force in getting the team to 4 straight NFCCG. He's a statistical anomaly as an instant superstar at such a young age. Summary - The Chiefs risked 2 1st rounders on a raw QB and struck paydirt, as he was instantly an upgrade from Alex Smith. Trading Smith while his value was at his highest was also a prudent move. Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill After spending a 1st on Tannehill in 2012, the Dolphins were mired in mediocrity as they consistently won 7-8 games a year with him under center. By his third year his passer ratings were consistently above average and most considered him to be around the #10-15th best QB in the league. After a torn ACL in 2017, and a rough stretch in 2018, they moved him and a 6th for a 4th and 7th rounder and ended that era (he had one year left on his $77M extension, but they mostly bought out the money for the Titans). His replacements in 2019 were Ryan Fitzpatrick (2 year, $11M deal) and putting a 2nd round pick in the shredder to acquire Josh Rosen from the Cardinals. Fitzmagic put together a solid season as the Dolphins tore down the roster, having a practice squad caliber OL, nothing at RB, and just two viable receivers. However, the Fins wanted to see what Rosen was capable of, and they gave him a shot - and he turned out to be horrific! Still, Fitzpatrick matched Tannehill's level of play on a far cheaper deal. The "Tank for Tua" campaign missed its mark for the 1st overall pick, so they missed out on Burrow, but still landed Tua. At this point, the move looks to be a failure has been an average at best QB, while Burrow is a superstar and Herbert has looked phenomenal. Tua's durability is a big question mark as well, but when he has been healthy, he's got the team to be 5 games over .500. It seems as if they've gone full circle and have returned to the mediocrity that the Tannehill era provided. Summary - On the surface level, Fitzmagic and Tua have replaced Tannehill just fine. However, seeing Tannehill thrive in Tennessee and Herbert look like the obvious pick at #5, Miami management has bungled the situation - the franchise is right back where they started, but not in horrible position. Letting Go an Above (?) Average QB Texans - Matt Schaub After a few solid years as the Texans' starting QB, Schaub flunked out of the job in 2013 due to throwing too many pick 6s. In the offseason, the Texans went with the shotgun approach to QBs - they signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to a 2 year $7.25M deal, draft Tom Savage in the 4th round, and traded a 7th rounder for Patriots QB Ryan Mallett. Despite shaky QB play, the team went 9-7 and barely missed the playoffs. In 2015, the Texans doubled down on their Patriots connections, re-signing Mallett to a 2 year $7M deal and also signing Brian Hoyer to a 2 year $10.5M deal. They opted not to draft a QB, and with Savage spending the whole year on the IR, they saw starts from Hoyer, Mallet, Brandon Weeden, and TJ Yates. In 2016, Houston infamously gave Brock Osweiler way too much money to play worse than basically every player named above, except maybe Mallett. This lead to the drafting of Deshaun Watson in 2017, but not before they stubbornly gave Savage more chances. Summary - It took 4 years to draft Watson after wandering in the wilderness. It's debatable whether trying to fix Schaub was a better plan than bringing in former Patriots QBs and blowing money on Osweiler. Bengals - Andy Dalton The Bengals had finally bottomed out in 2019, putting together an awful roster around Dalton, who had his worst career year. They released him once the season was over. Having the 1st overall pick in the draft, the Bengals opted to take Joe Burrow. After a rookie year filled struggles, flashes of brilliance, and a torn ACL, Burrow recovered and had a fantastic sophomore year, and has his team in the Super Bowl. Only 2 years later, the Bengals are in amazing shape. Summary - Dalton's run had come to a close, and they immediately found their QB messiah who broke their 31 year long playoff win drought is now in the Super Bowl. 49ers - Colin Kaepernick With Jim Harbaugh chased out of town and the once-proclaimed offensive genius Chip Kelly in charge, Kaepernick had a statically solid 2016, but the team went 1-10 and he was benched for Blaine freaking Gabbert. You probably know the rest: Kaepernick drew scant interest on the market, but waited things out for a better deal... only for him to vanish into the mist, with no team signing him. I don't delve into the reasons why here. Kyle Shanahan was hired the next year, and he brought in Brian Hoyer as their starting QB on a 2 year $12M deal, while also drafting (reaching) on a 3rd round QB named CJ Beathard. Both were flops, leading to them trading a 2nd round pick at the trade deadline for Jimmy Garoppolo. While it has been a good run, Garoppolo's durability and poor play might have lost them a Super Bowl win against the Chiefs. They've since traded 3 1sts to select Trey Lance, signaling the impending conclusion to the Garoppolo era. Summary - The 49ers found Garoppolo the next year, and stabilized the position. However, a better QB likely would have netted them a SB win. What Happens When an Above Average QB Retires Cardinals - Carson Palmer Palmer retired after an injury (caused by a missed Adrian Peterson block) after the conclusion of the 2017 season. With several QB options on the FA market, the Cardinals were the #3 team in the Kirk Cousins bidding, and instead blew $40M on a 2 year deal to Bradford, who was so bad he got benched after 3 games. He ended up taking home $15.9M of that $40M. They also traded up in the 1st round to select Josh Rosen, who straight out of the gate was also an abject failure. Thankfully the Cardinals were so bad with those two at QB that they were able to get the 1st overall pick and take Kyler Murray, and somehow got a 2nd rounder out of Miami in exchange for Rosen. They finally made the playoffs in 2021, but Kyler's story still has a long ways to go. He is clearly a franchise QB. Summary - After completely botching the QB spot in 2018, Arizona admitted their wrongs and got their franchise QB in the 2019 draft. Not bad! Colts - Andrew Luck Luck announced his retirement out of the blue in the preseason of 2019, as he was booed off the field by his fans. Perhaps what followed next was karma. The Colts had Jacoby Brissett ready to step in for the 2019 season, but even with a strong defense and good OL, Brissett's play was mediocre at best, failing to get the team to the playoffs. They also unnecessarily gave him a 2 year $30M extension that was completely undeserved. Knowing they had to upgrade the QB position, they went to 39 year old Philip Rivers on a one year $25M deal despite the fact that they could have afforded Tom Brady. Rivers gave them all he had left and helped get them to the playoffs, but Rivers was never going to be the guy to do damage in the postseason. They were dispatched by the Bills and their young QB mentioned earlier in this article. With Rivers retiring, the Colts made a bold move to fix Carson Wentz's career and sent a 3rd and future 1st to the Eagles for him (contract at about $24M a year). Looking at the aggregate stats, you may be deluded in thinking Wentz had a good season, but he was horrific down the stretch and somehow willed the team out of the playoffs despite having the NFL's best run game, good pass protection, and a solid defense. Summary - The Colts are lost in the QB wilderness, and have not recovered since the retirement of Andrew Luck. Cowboys - Tony Romo Romo's retirement was impending, but it came sooner than everyone thought it would - the Cowboys' consistently above average QB succumbed to injury and had to retire after the 2019 season. The previous year, Romo missed 12 games, resulting in starts from Matt Cassel, Kellen Moore, and Brandon Weeden. The Cowboys opted to spend a 4th rounder on Dak Prescott, which seemed like a risk since he had been busted for a DUI a week before the draft. Mark Sanchez was there as the veteran backup. With reports that Prescott looked overwhelmed in practice, Romo got injured in the preseason and that led to Prescott starting 16 games... and the team went 13-3. The offense was heavily predicated on the run game, but Prescott did a fantastic job as a 4th round rookie QB, even in the limited role they had him play in. Summary - Prescott's career has been a bit up and down, but they've committed to him with a 4 year, $160M deal. I'd say he's on a similar level to Romo. He's certainly a franchise QB, but you've got to wonder if they can be a SB contender with him on that bloated deal. Chargers - Philip Rivers Rivers had been a very successful regular season QB in San Diego and LA, putting up 134 wins and a 95.2 passer rating in 16 years there. However, winning in the playoffs was always a challenge and they never got past the AFC Championship game, and Rivers finished 5-6 in the playoffs. After a rough 2019, he hit the market and signed a deal with the Colts. With the 2020 draft having several legitimate QB prospects, the Chargers sat back and watched the Bengals take Burrow and the Dolphins take Tagovailoa, and they opted to take Justin Herbert. He had a fantastic rookie year (which looks even better after the 2021 QB class was so rough), and was the driving force in 2021 en route to a Top 5 offense. Their defense stinks and has held them back for years, but if that can be fixed, they will be a perennial contender. Summary - The Chargers immediately found Herbert, and has become a top 10 QB from the get-go. While they have yet to make the playoffs, they still have him on 3 more years of a rookie deal. They had better not squander that. Broncos - Peyton Manning Peyton topped off an incredible career with a Super Bowl win in 2015, despite the fact that his arm was hanging by a thread and duct tape. He was awful that year, but Denver's defense was far superior to the rest of the NFL. Prior to that year Peyton was fully functional, so I am considering him to be 'above average' if you combine the results of his final couple seaons. Denver did have a plan of succession, but things went awry after Peyton's retirement. Brock Osweiler was supposed to step in as the starting QB, but the former 2nd rounder's deal had expired. He looked solid when playing for Manning in 2015, and that landed him a $72M FA deal in Houston. This turned out to be a bullet dodged, as Osweiler was exposed as a terrible QB... but the Broncos dove headfirst into a barrage of bullets. They spent a 1st rounder on Paxton Lynch, but it quickly became clear that Lynch did not have the intangibles nor the accuracy to be an NFL QB. He started only 4 games, as Trevor Siemian got to play out the defense's best days. They spent 2 years headed down this path, with middling results. With GM John Elway convinced the team was still in 'win now' mode, they inked Case Keenum to a 2 year, $36M deal. Keenum flopped hard as the team went 6-10, as it was apparent the pixie dust from his magical 2017 season had completely worn off. In 2019, they opted to eat most of the money on his deal and shipped him off to the WFT. They successfully downgraded even further by trading a 4th round pick for a cooked version of Joe Flacco. They then immediately made that move look stupid as they drafted Drew Lock in the 2nd round, and he would go on to usurp the starting job after Flacco floundered as expected. This then led the way to the current era, where Lock got the 2020 season to try and prove he was a franchise QB after he looked decent in a 7 game stretch in 2019. Lock was awful, barely throwing more TDs then ints and only competed 57% of his passes. In 2021, they traded a 6th rounder to Teddy Bridgewater and he won the job. Teddy had a passable year and was a bigger upgrade on Lock then expected - it was Denver's best QB performance 2014 because the bar was set so low - but the writing is on the wall that a QB upgrade is desperately needed. Summary - Once Peyton retired, the Broncos have been swinging and missing very badly. Their top defense regressed and the team swooned for a while, but their current roster has talent. They need to be aggressive in finding a QB upgrade, else they're going to continue to be stuck at the bottom of their division for a very long time. Conclusion At this point I think it's rather obvious that the risk of the franchise going into a complete tailspin because their above average QB moved on is not as high as you think it is. As it turns out, having strong infrastructure (GM/HC/OL/position players/defense) usually prevents teams from turning into the next Browns/Jags/Lions franchise. If you think the Vikings are going to become the next Lions because they're moving on from Cousins... it's not going to happen. It takes a complete erosion of the aforementioned infrastructure to become that way. This is the same franchise that went to the playoffs with Tarvaris Jackson, Christian Ponder, and Case Keenum as the starting QB. Bad QB play is not a ticket to constant doom and gloom. If you're going to compare Kirk's situation to anybody's here, he reminds me most of Alex Smith (with the Chiefs) and Philip Rivers. Solid regular season QBs, but they've never taken their team to the next level to go on a SB run. However, they don't compare to Kirk's % of salary cap; Smith at most made 11% of his team's cap (only topped 10% in 4 seasons) and Rivers at most made 15% of the Chargers' cap (he topped 10% his last 9 years there). Kirk made 16.6% of the cap in 2021, and is set to cost 21.5% in 2022. Let me know what you think! Is it worth trading Cousins with the track record of what other teams have done to try and fill the hole a QB of his level leaves?There has been talk of Kirk Cousins being traded for many reasons, and it has left me wondering what past NFL teams have opted to do in similar situations. This article will examine what has happened |
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A really good question was asked in response to the Run it Back! post I made: How many coaching changes have resulted in a significant change to team performance? That post suggested the team needed to improve by 6 PPG over the field. Click here to read article To answer this, I loaded the franchise history for teams back to 1970 (same time frame as that article). Again, this is using the same PPG advantage as the Run it Back! post. Here is what I found: I counted 319 coaching changes since 1970. If there was a mid-season coaching change, I didn't count that (that's a train-wreck, not a coaching change). The change is attributed to the first year of the new coach. There were some huge swings in the early decades of the NFL, so I also filtered to recent changes: Recent = anything since 2000  Total coaching changes: 319 Recent coaching changes: 140 Total coaching changes that corresponded with a +6 or greater change: 90 (28% of all changes) Recent coaching changes that corresponded with a +6 or greater change: 37 (26%) Total coaching changes with a huge gain, +10 or more: 33 (10%) Recent coaching changes with a huge gain, +10 or more: 20 (14%) Total changes that showed some improvement (+1 or better): 181 (57%) Recent changes that showed some improvement (+1 or better): 81 (58%) Average impact of all changes: +1.98 Average impact of recent changes: +2.45 Vikings' coaching changes: 8 (remember, I skipped mid-year changes) Vikings' coaching changes with +6 or greater impact: 3 - 1985: +12.2 - 1986: +8.6 (that's right, back-to-back years. Les Steckel's 1984 Vikings set a really low bar) - 1992: +8.1 Some changes to be in awe of and give the team hope: Matt Nagy's 2018 Bears: +12.1 Frank Reich's 2018 Colts: +14.4 Doug Marrone's 2017 Jaguars: +14.4 Sean McVay's 2017 Rams: +19.9 Andy Reid's 2013 Chiefs: +21.1 Some cautionary tales for the doomers: Vance Joseph's 2017 Broncos: -8.1 Marc Trestman's 2013 Bears: -8.2 Steve Wilks' 2018 Cardinals: -8.4 Ken Whisenhunt's 2014 Titans: -10.3 Raheem Morris' 2009 Bucs: -12.1 And for bonus fun: the "pointlessness award" goes to Al Groh's 2000 Jets: started at 0, moved to 0 for a net change of 0. Groh was fired after one year; he never had a chance to Groh on anyone. How are we feeling, Vikings fans? This piece change anything for you?A really good question was asked in response to the Run it Back! post I made: How many coaching changes hav |
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Never before in the history of the NFL have teams gone to such great lengths to acquire or keep a great quarterback than they have this offseason. Aaron Rodgers got a massive contract unprecedented for a quarterback in his prime, let alone for a quarterback with realistically one or two good seasons left. The Denver Broncos traded for Russell Wilson, giving up multiple firsts, seconds, and two starters. Then, and maybe the biggest surprise, the Cleveland Browns not only gave Deshaun Watson a huge contract but gave up three first-round picks just to do so. So why are teams going to such great lengths to acquire great quarterbacks while good quarterbacks such as Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins either get traded for a third-round draft pick, or reportedly don’t get any offers at all? Why is Baker Mayfield, a former number-one pick still available? Click here to read article The answer to that is pretty obvious. Quarterbacks who are truly great make it easier to win games than quarterbacks who are merely good; and great quarterbacks win Super Bowls while good ones, on the rare occasion they have won them, get carried to victories. That isn’t really debatable, but what is debatable is what exactly makes up a great quarterback and just how much of an impact does having that great quarterback have on a team? Is Josh Allen already great? Does Matthew Stafford’s Super Bowl win on the most-talented team in the NFL mean he is suddenly great now? Would having Patrick Mahomes as the Vikings’ quarterback made them a playoff team even with the Vikings’ poor defense in 2021? Most importantly to the Vikings, how close is Kirk Cousins to being in the "great" category? To answer those questions, we need to take a look at what exactly a quarterback does to help his team win. One of the biggest ways they do is to not only win the games where the defense holds the opponent to a low score, but when the defense has a bad game, they elevate the team around them and win anyway. In today's NFL, most quarterbacks win when their team is only giving up 15 points in a game, but very few are capable of winning when their defense is giving up 25 points a game. That 25+ point per game winning quarterback is what most teams are trying to get when they trade multiple firsts to move up in the draft or to acquire Wilson or Watson. It is what the Packers want out of Rodgers as they pay him $50 million per year. Does that quarterback really exist though? Obviously, no quarterback, regardless of how great, wins every game that his team gives up 25+ points, and none even exists that could win every game even if his team gave up fewer than 20 points every game. Are there quarterbacks who win a lot more in those 25+ point or 20+ point games though? The answer to that, is obviously, yes. Below are the win percentages of all current starting qualifying quarterbacks (plus some that don't qualify but who I wanted to include anyway) when their teams give up a very winnable amount of points. I slotted the win percentages into 0-15 points given up (games even Sam Darnold wins), 16-20 points given up and 21-25 points given up. Note that this list is missing some big names, but with stats like these, the larger the sample size the better. Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow just haven't started enough games.  Based on these numbers alone, and not yet looking at winning percentages when these quarterbacks are forced to score a lot to win games, it is easy understand why Cleveland gave up the farm for Watson and why Green Bay didn't want to let Rodgers go. They just don't lose when their defenses are even average. While most quarterbacks have winning records even in that 21-25 range, being .850 in games where a team gives up 21-25 points is a game or two better in a season than being just .600. On the other hand, Wilson is worse than Derek Carr in games even an average quarterback wins most of the time. He isn't horrible here, but based on these numbers he doesn't look like he was worth what Denver gave up for him. It also looks like the San Francisco 49ers would be foolish to not stick with Jimmy Garoppolo with how dominant he appears to be in these situations. From the Vikings' standpoint, a one-year extension of $35 million doesn't look too bad for a quarterback who is 9th in win percentage among qualifying quarterbacks when his team gives 21-25 points. He's not worth an extension of Rodgers' caliber obviously, but this is not bad at all. So those are the winnable games. What about the high-scoring ones?  I did not include 40+ scores because they don’t happen very much, and the vast majority of quarterbacks don’t have even one win in that situation. Sample size has skewed the results quite a bit for some of the quarterbacks without a lot of starts in an individual slot as well, and I tried to make a note of that when the numbers didn’t make a lot of sense (like with Jimmy Garoppolo and Jared Goff). Once again, Patrick Mahomes continues to dominate all other quarterbacks. Based on his career average, he would have won 13 games even if his defense gave up what the league's-worst New York Jets' defense gave up on average in each game (29.6). Even Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are barely above .500 in that slot. If Mahomes continues, he will be the unanimous GOAT by the time his career is over. Rodgers also looks pretty good here, and the trade for Wilson looks much better, even if he doesn't appear to be all that close to being the best quarterback in his division. Allen has a really good .500 win percentage in that first - and most important - slot after being somewhat disappointing in lower-scoring games. The most surprising quarterback in this list is Goff, who was third-to-last in lower-scoring games but jumps up into the top five when lots of points are needed to win. It is also interesting to note that Alex Smith, the proverbial game manager, has won a decent amount of high-scoring games. Cousins really disappoints in this list, and just barely beats out Darnold in being able to win high-scoring games. Deshaun Watson and Carson Wentz both have lower win percentages in games where their team gave up 26-30, but since their win percentage is as high or higher in 31-35 point games, that puts them over Cousins and Darnold. Based on those numbers and those alone, here is a simple tier list ranking current starters:  For the most part, this matches up with nearly every other tier list out there, with a few exceptions. Having Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo ahead of quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson and Matthew Stafford has very little basis as to what those quarterbacks actually contribute on the field. Here I think we see the impact of what playing in a super-talented offense can have on even an average quarterback. There is a lot more that goes into those win percentages than just the quarterback, and while he plays the biggest part in an offense being able to outscore the opponent, he is certainly not the only part. It is pretty easy to identify those who have been blessed with great offenses for their entire career though, so I don’t think that invalidates these numbers. It is also easy to see where a guy like Allen, who has only been starting for four seasons and didn’t really come into his own until his third season, might be lower in those lists than he probably should be with how good he is now. Context still matters here, and it is important not to lose sight of that. So those are the quarterback numbers and the tiers, but do they actually matter in getting to and winning in the playoffs, and should teams be spending what they are to get a great one? Of course they should. For example, it doesn’t take a great football mind to know that the Vikings’ defense was a problem last season and made it more difficult to win than the average defense. With the win percentages above, we can see what Rodgers, Mahomes, and Brady would have done if they were starting on this Vikings team and the defense gave up the exact same number of points. Mahomes: 13 wins Rodgers: 10 wins Brady: 10 wins Prescott: 9 wins Wilson: 9 wins Ryan: 9 wins Stafford: 8 wins Cousins: 8 wins Tannehill: 9 wins Carr: 8 wins One or two wins might not seem like a lot, but this past season for our Vikings, it was the difference between making the playoffs and watching from home. Once you get there - and scoring gets harder as officials stop calling defensive holding and defenses play with a lot more intensity - the ability to overcome adversity, and/or put up more points in a challenging spot, increases a team's odds of winning dramatically. That is why teams covet great quarterbacks; whereas quarterbacks like Cousins who generally only win in a good situation, get very little interest. -- If you enjoyed this, consider checking out these two recent pieces, as well: [OC] Shanahan Coaching Tree Drafts - Predicator for Vikings? [OC] Payback Time: A Look at the Vikings' 2023 Salary Cap Never before in the history of the NFL have teams gone to such great lengths to acquire or keep a great quarterback than they have this offseason. Aaron Rodgers got a massive contract unprecedented |
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  As one reflects on the situation the Vikings are currently in coming into the 2019 season, you may stop and think - where have we gone wrong, or what might have gone differently with another QB at the helm? Well, folks, we're going to take a little trip down memory lane to examine what realistic options the Vikings had to improve their QB situation. And since I can't help myself, I've included other positions, but the focus here is on QBs. Funkytown posed me these questions about our QB situation since 2010: Was there a realistic option in the draft that we missed? Was there a realistic option in free agency? Who was at least available and the Vikings ended up passing on? What conclusions can we draw from this? And if you know me, I went down the rabbit hole with this question. Yup, I'm going to go through every Vikings' offseason from 2011 to 2018! Grab some coffee or prepare to take a nap midway through, 'cause this is going to be a long one! I've split the years up into spoiler tags so this article doesn't take up so much bandwidth. You can thank me later. Vikings 2011 Offseason The 2010 season was a complete disaster, with the roster falling apart at the seams (and even the Metrodome falling apart too!). I'll discuss each season's QB situation, talk about the team needs, and then look over all of the biggest signings, trades, and draftees that happened in the offseason. Whew, this could take a while with the way I do things... 2011 QB Situation The Vikings had nothing, with Brett Favre finally retiring and T-Jack moving on to a starting job in Seattle. Here were the potential QB moves that were available out there: Alex Smith actually hit free agency this year, but this was before Jim Harbaugh fixed him. Smith had a 19-31 record with an awful 9399/51/53 6.2 Y/A 57.1% stat line. He re-signed with the 49ers for a 1 year $5M deal... the Vikings were in no position to fix Alex Smith. Matt Hasselbeck hit free agency after 10 years serving as the Seahawks starting QB. He was coming off a very rough stretch the past 3 years, but despite that, the Titans landed him with a 3/$21M deal. He went 9-7 with the Titans, but quickly lost his job in 2012, so signing the 36 year old QB wasn't going to be a franchise-saver for the Vikes. Acquiring Carson Palmer in a trade was an option, but the Raiders paid the Bengals the unbelievably high price of 2 1st round picks and a 2nd rounder. This was a horrendously terrible trade for Oakland, as Palmer wasn't good until he left for Arizona. Remember Kevin Kolb? Well, many NFL people believed he was the next young backup QB who would go on to be a starting QB. The Cardinals acquired him for a 2nd round pick and a really good CB in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Kolb was immediately exposed as a mediocre QB and was promptly replaced by John Skelton and Ryan Lindley... this was another terrible QB move. So what did the Vikings do? They shipped a 6th rounder off to Washington for a washed-up Donovan McNabb who played about as expected... he was terrible. The plan was never to actually win any games with him, as he was just holding the QB spot until you-know-who was ready... yes, Christian Ponder. I'm not going to cover free agency this year, as the Vikings basically did nothing but add mediocre players like LT Charlie Johnson, DT Remi Ayodele, and WR Michael Jenkins. They were preparing to tank for a good draft pick... if only they could have gotten Andrew Luck the next year. Ugh. -- 2011 Draft -- The Vikings made the disastrous decision of making a massive reach for Christian Ponder... even though he likely would have been available for their 2nd round pick. I was not much of a draftnik as I am now at the time, but even then I was wondering "who the heck is that?!". Pre-draft media had plenty of speculation about Newton and Gabbert being the top QBs and few to none considered Ponder to be a 1st round talent. Key players they missed out on were: DE Robert Quinn C Mike Pouncey DE Ryan Kerrigan LT Nate Solder And if we're going to talk QBs, Ponder was the fourth taken after Newton, Locker, and Gabbert. Dalton and Kaepernick were taken 7-8 picks before the Vikings 2nd round pick. With hindsight at my side, it seemed if the Vikings were so desperate to find their franchise QB this year, they should have at least traded down. The Vikings then selected TE Kyle Rudolph, which was a surprise at the time with Visanthe Shiancoe still on the roster, but it was a very good move. There are few players taken in the 2nd round who have panned out as well as Rudy has. The rest of the draft didn't bring anything else to the Vikings outside of 6th rounder Brandon Fusco, who would eventually emerge as the team's starting RG. Oh, and I have to include this quote from Walterfootball.com regarding the Vikings' 2011 season: This is a throw-away season for Minnesota. The ideal strategy would be to win the Matt Kalil sweepstakes so Ponder will actually have some solid pass protection when he's ushered into lineup.  --------- Vikings 2012 Offseason 2012 QB Situation There isn't much to talk about here - the Vikings handed Christian Ponder the starting job after he notched 10 starts in 2011. While his play in 2011 was rough and statistically terrible, there was no reason why Rick Spielman, in his second year as the GM, would give up on his franchise QB so quickly. But let's still look at the alternatives, shall we? There was this QB you might recognize by the name of Peyton Manning who hit free agency... yup, this was THAT offseason. Manning, coming off a missed season due to neck surgery, hit free agency and basically got to pick where he could play. He inked a 5/$96M deal with Denver and won a Super Bowl there. Another option in free agency was Matt Flynn, the popular Packers backup QB who was expected to be hot item on the free agent market. He got himself a 3/$26M deal with Seattle and promptly fell behind rookie Russell Wilson, and Flynn quickly fizzled out of the league. Alex Smith hit free agency again, after a solid year (they went 13-3!) in San Fran. It seemed the 49ers made a bid for Peyton Manning, failed, and then gave Smith a 3/$24M deal. This turned out to be a wise move as Smith continued to play well, and was eventually traded to the Chiefs under this deal, allowing Kaepernick to become San Fran's QB. Outside of that, Tim Tebow could be had in a trade, or other veterans available included Jason Campbell and David Garrard. -- 2012 Free Agency -- The Vikings had a little more money to spend this year. With a lot of the starters from the 2009 squad gone and most of their money cleared, the Vikings had room to spend. So what did they do? Well, they made one of the most baffling decisions ever by giving TE John Carlson a 5/$25M deal. Carlson was a mediocre TE when he was healthy, and that was rare, as he didn't even play in 2011. Carlson played in 14 games in 2012 and caught a whopping 8 passes, and Kyle Rudolph bloomed into a starting TE. The Vikings also gave Jerome Simpson a one year deal, but the troublemaker was better at getting suspended than playing wide receiver. Yup, that was it. The Vikings clearly weren't interested in adding talent in free agency in Spielman's first couple years. The Vikings were clearly interested in adding WRs and TEs, and here are some others who signed in free agency: WRs Robert Meachem - Chargers, 4/$26M Laurent Robinson - Jaguars, 5/$32.5M Pierre Garcon - Redskins, 5/$42.5M Reggie Wayne - Colts, 3/$17.5M DeSean Jackson - Eagles, 5/$51M Marques Colston - Saints, 5/$36.3M Steve Johnson - Bills, 5/$36M Vincent Jackson - Bucs, 5/$55M TEs Jermichael Finley - Packers 2/$15M Fred Davis - Redskins 1/$5.4M Jacob Tamme - Broncos 3/$9M Kevin Boss - Raiders, 3/$9M I don't know what Spielman was smoking when they signed Carlson, that just made zero sense. ---- 2012 Draft ---- This draft is weird, as after its first season, it looked like an unbelievably amazing draft. The Vikings found their franchise left tackle, an amazing safety, a top-tier kicker, and a few solid role players. But as the years went on, things fell apart. So as you may remember, the Vikings took Matt Kalil 4th overall after moving down a spot with Cleveland, whom was busy having no idea what they were doing. Kalil was a huge upgrade at left tackle and went to the Pro Bowl in his rookie year, but every season after that he declined progressively. Kalil was once known for his durability, but fell apart after a knee scope, hip surgery, and a mysterious knee injury (2018). It's hard to say Kalil was the wrong pick - the next three selections of WR Justin Blackmon, CB Morris Claiborne, and S Mark Barron all ended in failure as well. They did miss out on Luke Kuechly, Fletcher Cox, and Melvin Ingram, but I don't feel like Kalil was the wrong pick. The Vikings moved up for Harrison Smith with the 29th pick, which was an absolute home run. I have to mention that the next pick after Smith, which was 49ers WR A.J. Jenkins, was one of the biggest busts of all time, as he was so bad he never caught a pass with the 49ers. And the Vikings took the game's best safety one pick before him. The Vikings would later take CB Josh Robinson, who never played to his full potential (partly Leslie Fraizer's fault), WR Jarius Wright who would be a solid role player, TE Rhett Ellison who did his job as a strong blocker, WR Greg Childs whose career ended due to injuries, and a couple decent backups in S Robert Blanton and LB Audie Cole. They also spent a 6th rounder on K Blair Walsh, which while this ticked off the fanbase since it meant Ryan Longwell was getting kicked to the curb, it allowed Walsh to have one of the greatest rookie kicking seasons ever, if not NFL kicker seasons ever. Just like Kalil, Walsh became a headcase over time, and eventually cost the team dearly. Notable picks from the Robinson selection and on are DE Olivier Vernon, QB Russell Wilson (!!), G Brandon Brooks, DL Akiem Hicks, WR T.Y. Hilton, QB Kirk Cousins, DL Mike Daniels, DL Malik Jackson, LB Brandon Marshall, CB Josh Norman, and LB Danny Trevathan. -------- Vikings 2013 Offseason -- 2013 QB Situation -- Ponder was locked in as the starting QB again, but after a middling year 2 that was powered by the Adrian Peterson Offense, there was clearly some doubt about Ponder's ability to be a starting QB. The Vikings opted to sign Matt Cassel to a 2 year deal, which not only put some pressure on Ponder, but also gave the Vikings one of the best backup QBs in the league. Alternatives in free agency included... um... Kevin Kolb, Tim Tebow, Matt Moore, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. It appears that wasn't an option. Looking at the trades, Alex Smith was had for two 2nd round selections by the Chiefs. Smith was successful in Kansas City and his talent was maximized, going 50-26 with a 17,608/102/33 line, but he never showed the ability to win games in the playoffs, and his conservative style of play became grating at times. It was a good move by the Chiefs at the time to nab Smith and develop him further, and eventually trade him 5 years later. The Vikings certainly could have stepped in at any point in 2011, 2012, and 2013, but with the general incompetence of the offensive coaching staffs of this years, I doubt the Vikings would have done much with him. The best under-the-radar move this offseason was the Cardinals getting Carson Palmer for a 7th round pick. Bruce Arians was able to coax out a few more years of solid play out of him. That was it. Now, mid-season, the Vikings decided to pick up QB Josh Freeman after getting released by Tampa... but you may remember that one going down in infamy. -- Other Free Agency Options -- Outside of the QB position, the Vikings ended up paying WR Greg Jennings a lot of money, and not much else. The Vikings did make a great decision to trade Percy Harvin for 1st and 3rd round selections that were turned into Xavier Rhodes and Jerick McKinnon. Clearly, the 2010-2013 Vikings did not like to make moves in free agency. Well, for the heck of it, let's see what other WRs signed big deals this year: Greg Jennings - MIN 5/$47.5M Mike Wallace - MIA 5/$65M Wes Welker - DEN 2/$12M Danny Amendola - NE 5/$31M -- 2013 NFL Draft -- This was the year the Vikings had 3 first round picks. They went with Sharrif Floyd 23rd. Floyd was seen as a top 5/10 prospect, who fell due to concerns over his arm length. Floyd was a decent player, but a botched knee scope ended his career. The next selections: #24: IND DE Bjoern Werner #25: MIN CB Xavier Rhodes #26: GB DE Datone Jones #27: HOU WR DeAndre Hopkins #28: DEN DT Sylvester Williams #29: MIN WR Cordarrelle Patterson With Werner, Jones, and Williams all turning out to be busts, the Vikings missed out on DeAndre Hopkins, who's become one of the best WRs in the league. Rhodes was a great pick and doesn't need to be discussed. The Patterson selection, does, however. The Vikings needed to find a second WR to pair with Jennings, and while Patterson was considered very raw, his play-making ability was second to none. Ultimately, neither of the two panned out, so let's say if the Vikings repeated their trade-up to #29, who else was available? #30: STL LB Alec Ogletree - Average outside linebacker #31: DAL C Travis Frederick - Became a perennial pro-bowler #32: BAL S Matt Elam - Major Bust #33: JAX SS Johnathan Cyprien - Good run defending safety but is bad in coverage #34: TEN WR Justin Hunter - A tall WR who quickly busted #35: PHI TE Zach Ertz - Pro-bowl caliber #36: DET CB Darius Slay - Pro-bowl caliber #37: CIN HB Giovani Bernard - A decent 3rd down back and not much else #38: SD LB Manti Te'o - Many connected him to the Vikings, but he only turned out to be a 2-down run stopping LB. The Vikings also took LB Gerald Hodges in the 4th round, and while he didn't turn out into a starter, there wasn't anybody else in the 4th round who was really worth taking. The 5th-7th round selections didn't turn into much, just a disappointing punter (Jeff Locke) and a good special teams LB (Michael Mauti). Notable selections in rounds 5-7 include WR Kenny Stills, HB Chris Thompson, CB/S Micah Hyde, T Ricky Wagner, HB Latavius Murray, LB Vince Williams, and S Kemal Ishmael. ---------- Vikings 2014 Offseason -- 2014 QB Situation -- Things were back in flux - Christian Ponder was exposed as a bust, Matt Cassel opted out of his deal, and Josh Freeman was exiled to a desert island (well, you get the point). Let's go over the options first before we discuss what happened: Josh McCown was the biggest free agent to sign in 2014. The 35 year old got a 2 year deal with the Bucs, and turned out to be a total and complete flop. McCown went 1-10 and had a equally bad 2206/11/14 line with 6.7 Y/A. That didn't turn out well... Michael Vick was a free agent, but he was way past his prime at this point. He became a backup for the Jets. That was it... free agency was barren this year. Even looking at trades, the most you could get was Ryan Mallett, Matt Schaub, and Blaine Gabbert. The Vikings ended up giving Cassel a new 2 year deal worth $10M, which while he barely played for it with the Vikes, I wouldn't call it a poor decision. They ended up trading Cassel in 2015 for a 5th rounder... who became WR Stefon Diggs! -- Other Free Agency Options -- The Vikings ended up nabbing DT Linval Joseph, DT Tom Johnson, LB Jasper Brinkley, and CB Captain Munnerlyn in free agency. The 5/$31M deal to Joseph was a prudent move, securing a great DT at quite a cheap price. Tom Johnson became a very good rotational pass rusher, Brinkley was pretty bad as a starter, and Munnerlyn was exposed as a bad #2 CB, but was an average nickel corner. Some other LB deals in free agency: Wesley Woodyard -> TEN 4/$16M Daryl Smith -> BAL 4/$16M Karlos Dansby -> CLE 4/$24M D'Qwell Jackson -> CLE 4/$22M Some other CB deals in free agency: Darrelle Revis -> NE 1/$12M Alterraun Verner -> TEN 4/$26.5M Aqib Talib -> DEN 6/$57M Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie -> NYG 5/$35M Brandon Browner -> NE 3/$17M -- 2014 NFL Draft -- The Vikings had the 9th overall pick, and could have taken any QB outside of Blake Bortles, but they opted to go with OLB Anthony Barr. While I'd say he hasn't lived up to being a top-10 selection, he's a good NFL starting LB with some very unique traits. The picks after him went like this: #10: TE Eric Ebron DET #11: LT Taylor Lewan TEN #12: WR Odell Beckham NYG #13: DT Aaron Donald STL #14: CB Kyle Fuller CHI #15: LB Ryan Shazier PIT #16: G Zack Martin DAL Well, that's quite a solid list of players. Lewan turned into a steady LT, which would have been nice, but replacing Kalil wasn't on their minds for a couple more seasons. Beckham and Donald would have made absolutely huge differences and are way better players than Barr. Fuller and Shazier are of similar talent levels to Barr (though Shazier is done playing football), and Martin has become a perennial Pro-Bowler. While you could say the Vikings made the right move to not panic and take a QB like they did in 2011, they missed out on some All-Pro caliber players. The Vikings made their big QB decision this season by trading up to the 32nd pick and selected Teddy Bridgewater. It was reported the Vikings had made calls to try and move up to take Johnny Manziel, but thankfully the Browns took him 22nd after moving up. By taking Bridgewater, the Vikings missed out on these picks at the top of the 2nd round: #33: G Xavier Su'a-Filo HOU #34: DE DeMarcus Lawrence DAL #35: G Joel Bitonio CLE #36: QB Derek Carr OAK #37: DT Ra'shede Hageman ATL #38: TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins TB Su'a-Filo, Hageman, and Seferian-Jenkins were all big busts. Lawrence has gone on to be a top 10 edge rusher, Bitonio is a very good guard, and Carr... had one very good season, and has been mediocre the other 4 seasons. The other potential franchise QB still available in this draft, Jimmy Garoppolo, was taken 62nd by New England and is the 49ers' QB right now... but he's only started 10 games and he's only 28. He might just end up as this draft class' best QB. I should probably go on about Derek Carr for a bit more since he was the other clear alternative at pick #32. Carr has had a 32-46 record in Oakland with a 18739/122/54 line with 62.8% completion and 6.7 Y/A. In his best season, 2016, he went 3937/28/6 with 7.0 Y/A with 7 4th quarter comebacks. He unfortunately broke a bone in his leg and missed the postseason, and the team was doomed with rookie Connor Cook at the helm. After Carr went on the 12-3 run in 2016, his play has declined. Recently his completion percentage has been much higher, but that's a better indication of his tendency to check down too often. This was perhaps due to taking 51 sacks in 2018, which was far more than he'd ever taken (31 was the highest he'd taken before). While Carr was drafted into a franchise full of incompetency and a lesser group of players around him, I'm not convinced we can deflect all the blame from him. Most damning was seeing top WR Amari Cooper get traded midseason to Dallas... and with Dak Prescott, he absolutely took off (he went 22/280/1 in 6 games with Carr, 53/725/6 in 9 games with Prescott). Carr does not appear to be a QB who can get a team over the hump and would land in the 20-25th best QB in my opinion. Alright, back to the draft review: The Vikings also landed DE Scott Crichton and HB Jerick McKinnon in the 3rd round. Crichton was a massive bust, but McKinnon was worth the selection as a very good rotational HB. In their 6 selections made between rounds 5-7, the only success was DT Shamar Stephen, who became a decent run stuffer. Notable players drafted from rounds 3-7 in 2014: G Trai Turner, HB Devonta Freeman, DT DaQuan Jones, CB Aaron Colvin, LB Telvin Smith, LB Avery Williamson, C Zach Fulton, G Laurent Duvernay-turdiff, and C Matt Paradis. ----------- Vikings 2015 Offseason -- 2015 QB Situation -- The Vikings shipped off Matt Cassel for a 5th round pick and made Teddy Bridgewater the starting QB with no questions asked in 2015, so they weren't looking at any QBs to add for competition. They signed Shaun Hill to a 2 year deal to backup Bridgewater. In free agency, options were scarce, once again. Ryan Mallett was the biggest option out there, and he ended up taking a 2 year, $7M to return to Houston. Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown were the next best guys available. There was one big trade involving QBs over this offseason - the Foles-Bradford trade. It felt more like a player-executed trade in Madden, but the Eagles and Rams swapped starting QBs. The Eagles gave the Rams Foles for 2nd & 4th rounders and Foles, with the Rams getting a 5th rounder. Unsurprisingly, neither QB was the solution for either team, with Foles earning a release after one season as the Rams starter, and Bradford was quickly replaced by Carson Wentz, but they were lucky to get something for Sammy Sleeves. -- 2015 Free Agency -- The Vikings played things very quietly during this period of free agency, with the biggest signing being CB Terence Newman to a one year deal. They also acquired Mike Wallace from Miami for a 5th rounder (who became HB Jay Ajayi, good pick by the Fins) and now had 3 years of control over Wallace if they wanted. Since CB and WR were positions they targeted, let's check out what others were available in free agency: WRs Jeremy Maclin -> KC 5/$55M Torrey Smith -> SF 5/$40M Andre Johnson -> IND 3/$21M Eddie Royal -> CHI 3/$15M Harry Douglas -> TEN 3/$11M Yeah, there wasn't many good WRs to pick from here. How about the CBs? CBs Darrelle Revis -> NYJ 5/$70M Antonio Cromartie -> NYJ 4/$32M Byron Maxwell -> PHI 6/$63M Tramon Williams -> CLE 3/$21M Chris Culliver -> WAS 4/$32M Perrish Cox -> TEN 3/$15M Cary Williams -> SEA 3/$18M Buster Skrine -> NYJ 4/$25M Most of these deals backfired, especially those two Jets moves. You gotta love giving heapings of money to old CBs! -- 2015 NFL Draft -- This draft class doesn't need much examining from the Vikings view, as they came away with Trae Waynes, Eric Kendricks, Danielle Hunter, and Stefon Diggs. It could be argued that we should be getting more from Waynes since he was the 11th overall pick, so let's see who else was available: #12: DT Danny Shelton CLE #13: G/T Andrus Peat NO #14: WR Devante Parker MIA #15: HB Melvin Gordon SD #16: CB Kevin Johnson HOU #17: DE Arik Armstead SF #18: CB Marcus Peters KC This group is rather middling... Shelton, Peat, Parker, and Johnson can be considered busts or at least disappointing. Gordon is a very good HB, but the Vikings didn't need to spend a pick on a running back here. Armstead is a good player, but not amazing. Peters is definitely a better CB, but his off-the-field problems were bad enough that the Chiefs couldn't put up with him anymore and shipped him off for a 4th round pick to the Rams, where he had a down season. The Vikings came out pretty well, looking at the rest of these guys. Notable players drafted in rounds 4-7: DE Trey Flowers, T Daryl Williams, OLB Za'Darius Smith, ILB Kwon Alexander, G Shaq Mason, DT Grady Jarrett, S Adrian Amos, CB/S Quandre Diggs, T Trent Brown, and QB Trevor Siemian. ----------- Vikings 2016 Offseason -- 2016 QB Situation -- For the second straight offseason, Teddy Bridgewater was locked into the starting job. Having no idea his knee was going to randomly explode 10 days before the season started, the Vikings didn't feel like needing to pick up any major free agent QBs. I will cover what did happen this offseason regarding QBs, though. Broncos QB Brock Osweiler hit free agency after starting just 7 games in Denver. The bidding for him went to insane levels, as he landed a massive 4 year $72M deal. He was an immediate flop for Houston, posting an awful 2957/15/16 (59%, 5.8 Y/A) line. The rest of the team was so good they went to the playoffs and even won a game, but that was in spite of Brock. They were so desperate to get rid of the contract, they gave Cleveland a 2nd round pick to eat all of the guaranteed money. Robert Griffin III hit free agency, but he was a shell of his former self at this point. The Browns foolishly gave him a 2 year, $15M deal to start 5 games and lose 4 of them. The Eagles gave Chase Daniel a 3 year, $21M deal for some bizarre reason, as this came after Sam Bradford's new deal that was given a week earlier (2 years, $36M). The Eagles would go on to draft Carson Wentz, so Daniel lasted just a single season. What an odd move. In August of 2016, the Chiefs quietly signed Nick Foles to a one year, $1.75M deal to back up Alex Smith. This was after Foles' debacle in St. Louis, but none would have guessed he would go on to be the Super Bowl MVP in 2017. Of course, the Eagles ended up trading Sam Bradford to the Vikings for a 1st rounder and a 2017 3rd rounder, just after they gave him a new deal over the offseason. That was a desperation trade by the Vikings, and it was the only real option on the table unless they wanted to go with a free agent... from what research I've done, the best free agents available at the time were Dan Orlovsky, Aaron Murray, T.J. Yates, and a crusty Michael Vick. Our forum back in 2016, Vikings Journal, is down now, back I'd like to go back and see who was recommended to be added to our QB group. The Bradford trade was the only major QB trade made in 2016. -- 2016 Free Agency -- The Vikings realized they needed to badly add some offensive linemen, and the Vikings quickly inked guard Alex Boone, formerly from the 49ers, to a 4 year $27M deal. While the move came with plenty of praise, Boone was just simply alright in 2016 and was a shocking cut before the 2017 season (only $10M was guaranteed), after he looked atrocious during the 2017 preseason. The Vikings also added T Andre Smith, who played terribly for 4 games and then hit the IR. Meanwhile, here were some other OL deals signed in free agency: LT Russell Okung -> DEN 5/$53M (included a team opt-out after 1 season) RT Mitchell Schwartz -> KC 5/$33M LT Kelvin Beachum -> JAX 5/$45M (included a team opt-out after 1 season) RT Bobby Massie -> CHI 3/$18M LG Kelechi Osemele -> OAK 5/$58.5M G Josh Sitton -> CHI 3/$21M G Jeff Allen -> HOU 4/$28M G Brandon Brooks -> PHI 5/$40M C Alex Mack -> ATL 5/$45M C Ben Jones -> TEN 4/$17.5M The Vikings definitely missed out on some solid deals here. -- 2016 NFL Draft -- The 2016 draft didn't turn out quite as well as the 2015 one for Minnesota - they spent their first pick on WR Laquon Treadwell, who has nearly played his way off the team. With Mike Wallace failing to fit in with this team, the Vikings needed to find someone to pair with Stefon Diggs, but not only was that guy already on the team (Thielen), but they could have found an absolute stud if they looked a little harder. Here's what followed the Treadwell selection: #24: CB William Jackson III CIN #25: CB Artie Burns PIT #26: QB Paxton Lynch DEN #27: DT Kenny Clark GB #28: G Joshua Garnett SF #29: DT Robert Nkemdiche ARZ #30: DT Vernon Butler CAR #31: RT Germain Ifedi SEA Woof, there were some massive busts to accompany Treadwell - I'm looking at Burns, Lynch, Garnett, Nkemdiche, and Ifedi. Clark has become a very good nose tackle for the Packers, Jackson III missed his rookie year but has been very good for the Bengals, and Butler is a middling rotational D-lineman. Some notable players the Vikings missed: #36: LB Myles Jack JAX #37: DT Chris Jones KC #38: CB Xavien Howard MIA #47: WR Michael Thomas NO Jack was on the top of my draft board, and he's gone on to be a good but not great LB - though the Vikings really didn't need another starting LB at the time. Chris Jones has been an absolute beast as an interior rusher - he had an Aaron Donald-esque season in 2018 with 15.5 sacks. Howard was a top 10 CB in 2018 with the Fins, raking in 7 interceptions. Finally, Michael Thomas has made a ridiculous 321 catches in his first 3 seasons with the Saints. These players are team-changers, and it's a shame the Vikings missed out on them. Later on, the Vikings spent the 54th pick on CB Mackensie Alexander, who just recently broke out as the team's nickel corner. It wasn't a bad pick in current hindsight, but G/C Cody Whitehair and S Kevin Byard were also available there. Legendary draft busts QB Christian Hackenberg and K Roberto Aguayo were taken in this same 2nd round, while they should have been 7th rounders. The Vikings also blew a 4th rounder on G Willie Beavers, who couldn't even make the team in 2016. They also got Kentrell Brothers in the 5th rounder, who's become a fine special teamer. 6th rounder WR Moritz Bohringer was a great story, but probably needed 2-3 years of college football before attempting the NFL. Blocking TE David Morgan was a good 6th round selection. Quietly, the Vikings had a great 7th round, as they nabbed DE Stephen Weatherly and S Jayron Kearse. Notable names drafted from rounds 4-7 are QB Dak Prescott, HB Jordan Howard, WR Tyreek Hill, NT D.J. Reader, and CB Jalen Mills (these rounds 4-7 appear to be rougher than usual). ------------- Vikings 2017 Offseason -- 2017 QB Situation -- ----------The Vikings were basically set with Bridgewater not ready for the regular season, and Bradford on the second year of his contract. However, as lucky as the Vikings were to have Bradford healthy for all of 2016, that luck totally caved in this year... and then the team went 13-3. It was all thanks to the relatively minor signing of Case Keenum that the season was saved. Also available in free agency was Jay Cutler... hooray! He signed a deal with the Dolphins and was bad. Mike Glennon was the young new QB to hit free agency, so the Bears gave him too much money! They gave him $45M over 3 years... and he was so bad in his first four starts, he was benched! Why would you pay a guy so much money just to give up on him so fast?! This was the first season Colin Kaepernick was available, but no team has touched him since he opted out of his 49ers deal. Robert Griffin III also sat this season out as a free agent. Nick Foles was available, and signed a 2 year $11M deal with Philly. He somehow went on to be the Super Bowl MVP. A sneaky trade happened this offseason - the Patriots shipped former 3rd round QB Jacoby Brissett to the Colts for WR Phillip Dorsett. Dorsett was a bust and hasn't accomplished much in New England, but the Colts now have one of the league's better backup QBs. The big QB trade happened at the trade deadline - the 49ers acquired QB Jimmy Garoppolo from New England for a 2nd rounder. I can't say much about the trade yet, as Jimmy has still barely played due to an ACL tear. The Patriots turned that 2nd rounder into a billion more picks. No, seriously, I could go on about how complicated all of the moves Belichick made with this pick - including a mind-blowing 5 separate times they traded down with this pick, eventually acquiring CB Duke Dawson and LB Christian Sam in 2018, HB Damien Harris and CB Joejuan Williams in 2019, and even a 4th rounder in 2020!! I could write an entire article about this draft pick! -- 2017 Free Agency -- The Vikings were fairly aggressive in this year's free agent market. They nabbed a left tackle to replace Matt Kalil in Riley Reiff, giving him a whopping $58.75M over 5 years. Next, they gave Reiff a bookend in Mike Remmers, paying him $30M over a 5 year deal. Finally, they found a starting HB (until the draft happened) in Latavius Murray for $15M over 3 years. Other OL deals signed: G Kevin Zeitler -> CLE 5/$60M G T.J. Lang -> DET 3/$28.5M G Larry Warford -> NO 4/$34M LT Andrew Whitworth -> LAR 3/$36M LT Russell Okung -> DEN 4/$53M C J.C. Tretter -> CLE 3/$16.75M RT Ricky Wagner -> DET 5/$47.5M G Ronald Leary -> DEN 4/$35M LT Kelvin Beachum -> NYJ 3/$24M I would cover the other HB signings, but outside of Murray there were only washed-up HBs signing... Eddie Lacy and Jamaal Charles signed one year deals. -- 2017 Draft Recap -- The Vikings didn't have a first rounder due to the Bradford trade, but they were able to move up in the second round and get a first round talent who fell to them. HB Dalvin Cook was worth the selection talent-wise, but certainly not health-wise. He needs to play more to justify the selection. Here are the selections that happened after him: #42: NO FS Marcus Williams (the man responsible for the Minneapolis Miracle) #43: PHI CB Sidney Jones #44: LAR TE Gerald Everett #45: CHI TE Adam Shaheen #46: IND CB Quincy Wilson #47: BAL ED Tyus Bowser #48: CIN HB Joe Mixon #49: WAS ED Ryan Anderson #50: TB S Justin Evans Of this group, Mixon is a similar talent level to Cook, but he's been much healthier and thus the better pick. The two TEs were very raw and haven't become starters, and neither have the edge defenders. It's too early to call this. The Vikings also spent selections on C Pat Elflein in the 3rd round and also nabbed some backups in Jaleel Johnson, Ben Gedeon (part-time starter), G Danny Isidora, and WR Stacy Coley. Players who already fizzled out are WR Rodney Adams, TE Bucky Hodges, CB Jack Tocho, and LB Elijah Lee, though Lee started 5 games for the 49ers in 2018. Notable players who the Vikings could have drafted: RT Taylor Moton (2nd), LT Dion Dawkins (2nd), DT Larry Ogunjobi (3rd), HB Alvin Kamara (3rd), WR Cooper Kupp (3rd), WR Kenny Golladay (3rd), HB James Conner (3rd), S Eddie Jackson (4th), TE George Kittle (5th), CB Desmond King (5th), LB Jayon Brown (5th), and LB Matt Milano (5th). Vikings 2018 Offseason -- 2018 QB Situation -- At this point, the Vikings came to a very unique situation: Sam Bradford, Case Keenum, and Teddy Bridgewater were all about to hit free agency. Bradford was coming off a mysterious knee injury, Bridgewater had recovered from his dislocated knee, and Keenum was coming off of a career year. Spielman, Zimmer, and newly-hired OC DeFilippo came together and made the decision... to let all 3 QBs go! Redskins QB Kirk Cousins finally hit free agency after being franchise-tagged two years in a row, and Spielman was able to woo him over with a fully guaranteed 3/$84M deal. Bradford signed a ridiculous 2/$40M deal in which he lasted 3 games as the starter, Keenum was anointed as Denver's QB with a 2/$36M deal, and Bridgewater competed for the Jets' QB job on a 1/$6M deal. Outside of those four, the only other option out there was Alex Smith, who was acquired in a trade with Kansas City for a good CB (Kendall Fuller) and a 3rd round pick. The Skins immediately gave Smith a 4/$94M deal, and he was mediocre for 10 games until a gruesome injury ended his season and possibly his career. The Vikings had clear needs on the O-line, but they opted to sign nobody except G Tom Compton. They ended up paying dearly for this, and here's who was available: G Andrew Norwell -> JAX 5/$66.5M G Justin Pugh -> ARZ 5/$44.8M LT Nate Solder -> NYG 4/$62M G Josh Sitton -> MIA 2/$13.5M C John Sullivan -> LAR 2/$10.75M C Weston Richburg -> SF 5/$47.5M C Mike Pouncey -> LAC 2/$15M G Josh Kline -> TEN 4/$26.5M Looking through the list, you could argue every signing was a failure or at least an overpay. Sitton, Sullivan, and Kline didn't even make it to year 2 on their deals, Pugh played just 7 games and was bad when healthy, Norwell and Pugh were both about average despite being the highest paid players at their position, Richburg was among the worst centers in the lead, and Pouncey was a relative success. I bring this up because many Vikings fans claimed that they should have went in on a cheaper QB and used the extra money to sign an offensive lineman. Alright, which one? Just as Cousins disappointed many as a big free agent pickup, basically all of these guys were not worth the money. It's certainly possible some of these moves might end up paying off, but the Vikings wouldn't be in a better situation if they got Keenum & Norwell instead of just Cousins. Oh, and the Vikings also nabbed DT Sheldon Richardson in free agency, which was a surprisingly cheap signing, but he was more name than game. He played slightly above the average DT but didn't move the needle much for the defense. The 2018 draft was too recent, and isn't worth grading yet, in my opinion. ------------ FULL RECAP - 2011 --> 2018 This will quickly cover which years had which QBs available, and any borderline franchise QBs will be included. If the Vikings did not pass on the player in the draft, there will be an X, so you can tell that the Vikings could not have drafted this QB without trading up. 2011 Cam Newton - Draft (1st X) Andy Dalton - Draft (2nd) Colin Kaepernick - Draft (2nd) Alex Smith - Free Agency Carson Palmer - Trade 2012 Andrew Luck - Draft (1st X) Russell Wilson - Draft (3rd) Kirk Cousins - Draft (4th) Peyton Manning - Free Agency Alex Smith - Free Agency 2013 Carson Palmer - Trade Alex Smith - Trade 2014 Derek Carr - Draft (2nd) Jimmy Garoppolo - Draft (2nd) 2015 Jameis Winston - Draft (1st X) Marcus Mariota - Draft (1st X) Nick Foles - Trade Sam Bradford - Trade 2016 Jared Goff - Draft (1st X) Carson Wentz - Draft (1st X) Dak Prescott - Draft (4th) Nick Foles - Free Agency 2017 Mitchell Trubisky - Draft (1st X) Patrick Mahomes - Draft (1st X) DeShaun Watson - Draft (1st X) Jimmy Garoppolo - Trade Nick Foles - Free Agency 2018 Baker Mayfield - Draft (1st X) Sam Darnold - Draft (1st X) Josh Allen - Draft (1st X) Lamar Jackson - Draft (1st) Alex Smith - Trade Total: 1st round: 13 2nd round: 4 3rd round: 1 4th round: 2 Trades*: 7 Free Agency*: 5 * = counts repeat players ------- CONCLUSIONS Lesson #1: Find your QB in the draft, and don't reach for him when talented players are available. --------Perhaps you might be thinking "well thanks, Captain Obvious!" to this, but it's still a lesson to be learned. First off - find your QB in the draft, don't mess around when looking for your franchise QB!! How many times do we see a middling QB hit free agency and get paid way too much money? Brock Osweiler, Mike Glennon, Sam Bradford (ARZ), and Case Keenum (DEN) come to mind, and Kirk Cousins is certainly in this ballpark. Trading for a QB almost never works; heck, in the time span of this article, only the Carson Palmer trade from OAK to ARZ was a true success (the Garoppolo trade is still TBD). The franchise QB list above clearly shows it - most teams find their QB through the draft. But... it also doesn't pay to panic. I'm referring to the 2011 draft where the Vikings took Ponder when nobody thought he would go. Not only did the Vikings blow a chance at finding a good pass rusher or starting offensive lineman, but they also locked themselves into Ponder as their QB for the next 3 seasons. This meant that other options like Dalton, Kaepernick, Wilson, Cousins, Manning, Smith, and Palmer weren't options during this time period. Imagine this hypothetical situation composed of 100% hindsight: With the 12th pick in the 2011 Draft, the Vikings select LT Nate Solder, and he becomes the starting LT for at least the next 5 years. Then, in the 2nd round, the Vikings select Christian Ponder (if he's still available, which is up for debate, but if not they could move up to get him). Not only is there less pressure for a 2nd round QB as compared to a 1st rounder, the Vikings now don't need to draft Matt Kalil the next season, and Ponder's leash will be shorter since he isn't a 1st round QB. This allows for the Vikings bring in a QB earlier to usurp Ponder's starting QB job - say Carson Palmer in 2013. It seems the Vikings learned from the second part of lesson, as they took Anthony Barr in the 1st round of the 2014 draft and waited until the 32nd pick to jump up and nab Bridgewater. In the alternate situation where Spielman panics again and takes Bridgewater 9th, Barr is likely scooped up within the next few picks, and the Vikings' ability to get another good starter are greatly reduced - instead of Barr, the Vikings could have ended up with OLB Kyle Van Noy, a guy who lasted just 7 starts for the Lions (though, of course the Patriots redeemed him into being a good LB, but that's beside my point). It's also important for the front office to have an ear turned to the competition come draft time. The 2011 staff needed to examine whether other teams were actually going to pounce on Ponder - while the 2014 staff appeared to figure out [from their sources] that the media and mock drafters were overstating Bridgewater's (and Manziel's) actual draft stock. From what I can tell, Spielman & Co. have gotten better at discerning which teams are going to pick which player (or at least which position). Lesson #2: Free agency is full of fool's gold; the draft is where the real treasure is. Teams in all sports do it all the time - teams sign players to mega-deals in free agency, and the players often disappoint. While this may not be a thing in the star-driven NBA, it's 100% buyer beware in the NFL and MLB. The typical player starts declining around age 29-31 (depending on position, QB doesn't apply), and many times players are hitting free agency at 26, 27, and even 28 years old. Plus teams have to pay the market rate, which cause almost all players to be overpaid and add unrealistic expectations to that player. Rarely did any Viking free agent signing work as expected; DTs Linval Joseph and Tom Johnson were bargain adds in 2014, and that's really about it. Too often signings like John Carlson, Greg Jennings, Alex Boone, and Mike Remmers burned the Vikings' wallet. The best teams use free agency for small to medium supplements to help their teams. The best recent examples include the Patriots, the recent Eagles regime, and recent Colts regime come to mind. Remember that image of Belichick out on a cruise in March during the free agency splurge, and the Patriots barely made any moves? I think there's some method to the madness. Lesson #3: Sometimes you are dealt a crappy hand, and even if you play everything perfect, you still lose out To be perfectly honest, I'm not sure how the Vikings were supposed to play 2016 on. I guess you don't draft a QB whose legs are too skinny? Bridgewater's knee injury caused a series of events that is still playing out today - it's hard to say what would have happened if the injury never happened, but we certainly wouldn't have had Bradford, Keenum, and then Cousins as our starting QBs. The Bradford trade didn't turn out well, but the alternative was to go into the 2016 season with Shaun Hill as their QB, and find a new starter in 2017. Sure, maybe the Vikings lose enough games to draft Patrick Mahomes or DeShaun Watson, but is it really the right move to immediately punt the 2016 season away after Teddy's knee injury? Only in hindsight would it make sense to tell the 2016 squad to tank, while the team's playoff window had just opened the year earlier. It's also hard to say what the Vikings should have done in the 2018 offseason - Bridgewater and Bradford weren't real options if 2018 was to be a Super Bowl or bust year, Keenum was a clear candidate for regression and his benefactor, Pat Shurmur, was gone, and while Alex Smith is a fine veteran QB, he ended up wrecking his leg. I suppose you could argue that Smith possibly doesn't break his leg if the Vikings trade for him... but they are also acquiring a middling QB that the Chiefs are trading away because he didn't have what it took to win in the playoffs. So yes... I am claiming that trading for Bradford in 2016 and getting Cousins in 2018 were the right moves. The Vikings had a roster built that could win playoff games, and the front office did whatever possible to get a good QB in the door. Spielman & Co. played both situations very aggressively, which I think is something that should be applauded. But going back to my second point, making sexy free-agent splashes for players with big names doesn't always work. Getting Bradford and Cousins came at a great cost, yet 2017 Keenum was better than both of them. Sometimes the quiet, conservative plays work out better in the long run. It seems this Vikings front office might "go down swinging", but perhaps they should have considered just trying to get on base rather than going for the home run. Whew... alright, now that this massive essay on the Vikings' past decades of offseasons is complete, what do you think? What were some alternate scenarios that should/could of have happened with/without hindsight? What do you think about my conclusions? Let's get some discussion going here! As one reflects on the situation the Vikings are curre |
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With many trades in the first round I wanted to put the various value into context. I'm not sure how every team values trades, so I plugged all of them into the Rich Hill and Jimmy Johnson Charts for comparison. I ignored trades of players since they can't have pick value assigned: Click here to read article Commanders Trade #11 to Saints for #16, 98, 120 Jimmy Johnson Point Chart Commanders Receive: 1000+108+54 = 1162 Saints Receive: 1250 Rich Hill Point Chart Commanders Receive: 305+38+26 = 369 Saints Receive: 356 This was the only trade I found where the value gain was split, suggesting maybe the Saints used the Jimmy Johnson chart while the Commanders used the Rich Hill value and both teams came away happy. Texans Trade #13 to Eagles for #15, 124, 162, 166 Jimmy Johnson Point Chart Texans Receive: 1050+48+25+23.4 = 1146.4 Eagles Receive: 1150 Rich Hill Point Chart Texans Receive: 315+21+10+9 = 358 Eagles Receive: 336 Evan if teams are using the Jimmy Johnson Chart, but the Texans scored some great surplus value for moving down 2 spots on the Rich Hill model. Patriots Trade #21 to Chiefs for #29, 94, 121 Jimmy Johnson Point Chart Patriots Receive: 640+124+52 = 816 Chiefs Receive: 800 Rich Hill Point Chart Patriots Receive: 203+41+25 = 269 Chiefs Receive: 261 The Patriots receive a small amount of value in both cases. The surplus in both cases is about an early 6th. Given that the lowest pick traded was in the 4th, I'm going to look at this as a rounding error in the Patriots favor. Bills Trade #23 to Ravens for #25, 130 Jimmy Johnson Point Chart Bills Receive: 720+42=762 Ravens Receive: 760 Rich Hill Point Chart Bills Receive: 230+21 = 251 Ravens Receive: 245 Minimal difference, 4 points on the Rich Hill Model is about a late 6th, so pretty Even. Bucs Trade #27 to Jaguars for #33, 106, 180 Jimmy Johnson Point Chart Bucs Receive: 580+82+17.8 = 679.8 Jaguars Receive: 680 Rich Hill Point Chart Bucs Receive: 180+33+7=220 Jaguars Receive: 216 If anything I'm surprised how even this is. I like this from the Jags standpoint just because they kept the trade value even and get to pick up the 5th year option if they want it. Vikings Trade #12+46 to Lions for #32+34+66 Jimmy Johnson Point Chart Vikings Receive: 590+560+260 = 1,410 Lions Receive: 1200+440 = 1,640 Rich Hill Point Chart Vikings Receive: 184+175+76=435 Lions Receive: 347+128=475 Every other team trading is very obviously using a common trade value chart. So this makes the discrepancy in favor of the Lions seem even more out of place. 230 points on the Jimmy Johnson chart is the equivalent value of Pick #72 in the early 3rd. 41 Points on the Rich Hill Chart is pick #94, a late 3rd. So by either metric, the Vikings gifted the Lions a 3rd round pick. Let's look at some responses: That's not now this works, Kevin. That's not how any of this works. When every other team is clearly using standard trade values, you don't get to invent an imaginary trade value that exists to no other team, then reference that and say "heyyy we won!". I don't get to walk down the street and shout profanity at strangers and it's ok because "I invented a new language that exists only in my own head and those words have a different meaning." Ok, Jason_OTC, let's see how well this Player valuation logic holds up. Who are the 3 most valuable QBs (this is not compared to their salary, just straight value) OTC Player Valuation QB Valuations Justin Herbert - $35.3M Josh Allen - $35.2M Trevor Lawrence - $33.0M Ok, right away I see a serious issue here. Herbert is pretty good, but Better than Allen, Mahomes, Brady, and everyone? And Trevor Lawrence stunk (remember this isn't value added over salary, this is straight value). But that's QBs, Detroit took a WR, let's see who the most valuable WRs are. WR Valuations Coop Kupp - $20.6M (Ok, a defensible start! maybe this is better!) Amon-Ra St. Brown - $20.1M Mike Williams - $20.1M Darnell Mooney - $18.9M Brandon Aiyuk - $18.8M Marvin Jones - $18.2M Those are the 6 most valuable wide receivers in the NFL according to this methodology. If you agree, and you also think that those are the 6 most valuable WRs in the NFL, you might also think that the Vikings got solid value in this trade. Let's hear from the man himself Kwesi-Adofo-Mensa Kwesi Adofo-Mensah & Kevin O'Connell on Trading Down, Resetting the Board for Day 2 "I mean, it's the ultimate irony, right? The guy who used to calculate the charts themselves, now I have people arguing about charts," Adofo-Mensah said. "It's, uh, again, it's the same thing as economics. It's, 'How happy are you with this outcome versus this outcome versus this outcome?' "You can talk about charts all you want. It's not like you call somebody if you were buying a house and say, 'Hey, it should be worth this.' Well, they might not pay that," Adofo-Mensah added. "Everything is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. We kind of went with this, going into the process, we said, 'OK, what would our happiness level be if we did this trade vs. staying vs. this other trade?' With many trades in the first round I wanted to put the various value into context. I'm not sure how every team values trades, so I plugged all of them into the Rich Hill and Jimmy Johnson |
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The point of this series is to look at games from 2021 and look for things the Vikings can improve in 2022. Prior games are here: Click here to read article Game 1 @ CIN Game 2 @ ARI Game 3 vs SEA Game 4 vs CLE I’m not going to lie, I didn’t get a lot out of re-watching this game. It's easily the least valuable of the five games so far. The Vikings should have won by a bigger margin except for a small number of plays that were very close to good plays but turned bad for one reason or another. But at the end of the day I understand reality: someone out there is reading this from a stall at work and who am I to send them back to their desk? So here we go. Interesting stat: 46% - the pressure rate for Cousins in this game. The prior week versus Cleveland when it looked like Cousins was under siege, Cousins had a pressure rate of 37%. I don’t think this tells the entire story because against Cleveland, Cousins had 6 hurries + 7 hits + 2 sacks; then against Detroit he had 15 hurries + 0 hits + 2 sacks. I picked this stat for two reasons: 1) Detroit’s defensive line wasn’t that bad. They also generally held the Vikings run game in check. It is wrong to assume that this game was close simply because the Vikings played poorly. There were parts of the Lions' team that played quite well, particularly the defensive front. 2) Most other stats suggested the Vikings should have won big; this pressure stat suggests a reason they didn’t. Interesting that this was also Christian Darrisaw’s first full game. Sidetrack: I normally keep these reviews about the Vikings, but the Lions are my take the most-improved team in 2022. Their defense played okay, Jeff Okudah missed the entire season, they added Aiden Hutchinson (who doesn’t scare me as much as some pass rushers, but is still a step up), and Goff’s last five games he averaged a passer rating of 109 and the Lions went 3-2 in those games. It would not shock me to see the Lions finish with a winning record. Key play: There wasn’t one. The game flow is mostly boring:  Vikings are going to win a ho-hum game… Wait, Detroit’s going to win! ... Nope, Vikings win! And neither of those swings are particularly illuminating when it comes to what to expect in 2022. The swing in the Lions' favor was Mattison fumbling while trying to run out the clock – that type of fumble should be a once-in-a-season type mistake. The only thing to take from this in 2022 is that this is the second time that kind of bumble bit the Vikings in the first five games. It’s unlikely that rate of fluky fumbles will continue; Kevin O’Connell will need to come up with entirely new fluky bad plays. The swing back to the Vikings happened with two clean pockets and on-target throws - the type Cousins and Thielen connect on 9/10 times. It’s not really a key play if it’s exactly what you'd expect. Instead of a key plays, here is a list of missed plays that could all be nominated for “key play” because most of them could have put the game out of reach: - First quarter: 20-yard catch and run to Thielen is negated by a holding penalty called on Herndon. This was yet another stupid screen with Thielen running the “just stand there” route that he broke for 20 yards. The hold by Herndon seemed largely unnecessary as he was in position to throw a good block. This penalty turned a first-and-goal at the four into a field goal. - Third quarter: Alexander Mattison converts a third down with a great run into Detroit territory. This was also called back by a penalty on Herndon; this penalty was even more unnecessary as it happened away from the play (I couldn’t find Herndon on the screen). This resulted in third-and-16 and then a punt. - Third quarter: Cousins hits Osborn with a pass down to about the Detroit 15. Like, literally hits him in the helmet because he wasn’t looking. The ball bounces up, gets intercepted, and the lead stays at seven. - Fourth quarter: Greg Joseph leaves a 49-yard field goal short. The kick was perfectly straight, and he had makes from 54 and 55 yards. The game stays a one-possession game. The Vikings shot themselves in the foot with unnecessary mistakes. So instead of an insightful, game-changing play, for pure entertainment’s sake, here is one of my favorite plays of the season: Mattison’s 15-yard touchdown reception. Mattison takes a short crossing-route down to about the two where he is stood up by multiple defenders. Then the magic happens. Enjoy Ezra Cleveland and Garrett Bradbury going bowling for Lions. They come in full speed and blast about six dudes into the end zone:  Chef’s kiss. So despite learning very little from this game, I’ll still add my scoring for each team group (reminder ranging from -2 to +2 with no 0’s assigned). I want to come back to this at the end of the series to see how we are set up for 2022. Passing offense: The passing game carried the offense, but I’m not rating it that highly because I felt the passing game left too many opportunities on the table. Cousins’ completion percentage was one of the highest of the season, but watching the game he was less accurate than usual, missing on a few passes or making easy completions hard. Overall, too many opportunities left on the field. But the passing game did generate most of the offense and came through when it mattered, so it gets a + rating. Game score: +1 (cumulative season to date: +3) Rushing offense: As I watched the running game, it didn’t feel like the Vikings were facing the 29th defense in yardage; the Vikings' offensive line wasn’t dominating the way I would expect. Mattison’s box score looks good: 25/113 yards for a 4.5 yards-per-carry average. However, other than his 48-yard run, he averaged only 2.7 yards per carry. But you can’t take away the big plays! I’m not ignoring it, for scoring purposes, I’m canceling out the 48-yard run with the fumble that nearly cost the team the game – and what’s left is very uninspiring. Game score: -1 (cumulative season to date: -1) Pass defense: For a unit that gave up only 203 yards passing, no touchdowns, one interception and four sacks, this game didn’t really blow me away. It seemed like Goff would see: clean pocket, clean pocket, clean pocket, bum’s rush from three defensive linemen. There were some great individual plays that turned this from a negative to a positive performance. Also, Goff had a really poor game, missing on some throws that were clearly open, no credit to the Vikings for an opponent playing poorly. Game score: +1 (cumulative season to date: +5) Run defense: This was okay. If I allowed myself to give a “0” rating I would hand one out to the run defense in this game. The tie-breaker is what did Detroit do when they were gifted a chance to win? Run-pass-rushing touchdown. Game Score: -1 (cumulative season to date: -1) Special teams: I thought my rule was a positive rating if you win the game on special teams? Well … not if you miss a chance to ice the game three minutes earlier. The Vikings had no returns to speak of. Game score: -1 (cumulative season to date +0) Coaching: What I’m not going to hold against the coaches: the weird plays that kept this from being a multi-score game. The plan was there, the call was there, and a guy just made a mistake. What I will hold against the coaches: the Vikings got the ball at the 18 with 37 seconds and went down for the winning score… at the end of the first half they got the ball at the 19 with 41 seconds left and ran out the clock. Were the Vikings coaches following Herm’s very simple rule? They were not (at least not always) Game score: -1 (cumulative season to date: -4) And now, gather round and I’ll read you a story from the [play]book of stupid screens. Upon a time once, not long ago There was a great hero wearing horns who could throw. An agent came down and told the young man “Move this ball down the field for riches galore, you need but 10 yards, I’ll give you downs numbering four” A crowd gathered round with pizza and beer, not sure if they should boo or should cheer. One lad shouted out, we'll call him a fan, “Our hero can do it! He drives a large van!” On try number one the hero’s planted by flowers. The crowd, sensing trouble, hooted and glowered. On attempt number two he gets a bit back, but three yards moving forward is less than the sack. Instead of just 10, the hero now needs 12 yards, and he needs them all now because that fourth try’s just not in the cards. The crowd cheered him on, even those who thought him a clown, they yelled sage advice: “Just don’t check it down!” Then this happened and ruined the drive worse than I just ruined the end my own story:  There are so many things wrong with this, it’s a complete mockery of a play design. - Start with the general concept of how a screen should work: lots of guys run after the quarterback, so the quarterback tosses the ball over them and the receiver is suddenly past lots of guys. That doesn’t apply here because the Lions only rushed thre guys, so this is just a short pass into a bunch of defenders. - There was absolutely no contingency in case the defense did something extremely expected (like defend the first down line on third-and-12), both Osborn and Jefferson ran the exact same route with one receiver in front of them to block at least three guys. - The only deep target was Conklin who looks to be at least double-covered. - While Conklin ran down the middle of the field he was utterly useless in terms of blocking for either Osborn or Jefferson. - Two offensive linemen are actually further downfield than intended targets: Jefferson or Osborn… yet despite that, no offensive lineman has any chance to block any defender downfield. The crowd boo-ed Cousins for taking a “check down” on third-and-12, but this was how the play was designed. This might be the worst play design I’ve seen so far. I hope, for your sake, those of you who started reading this in a stall are still there. Jefferson dominated the first half and the Vikings went away from him in the second. Despite the play design above, Cousins wasn’t blameless in this. Two three-and-outs later this was one of the worst pre-determined throws I’ve seen. Cousins seemed to stare down Mattison even though Thielen cleared out the defense for Jefferson, and it looks like Jefferson would get at least a first down and more up the left sideline:  This is the sort of game that a good team should win by 14. The only takeaway is that it was apparent the Vikings had the individual players on the field to win by a much bigger margin. Final Score: 19-17 Win The point of this series is to look at games from 2021 and look for things the Vikings can improve in 2022. Prior games are here: |
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This topic came up in MidwinterViking 's recent [OC] 2021 Game-By-Game Replay - Game 4 vs CLE thread, and I felt it deserved a thread of its own. It was a popular narrative all last season and continues to be, so let's see if we can support our pattern recognition with some cold, hard numbers regarding the scripted opening drives. Click here to read article CMP ATT PCT YDS AVG TD IN RATING DRV PLY YDS FD TOP TD FG PNT DWN TO 3nO PTS Average per drive: PLY YDS FD TOP TD FG PUNT DOWN TO 3nO PTS Pattern recognition confirmed. Field-goal drives include both makes and misses (attempts) because it's not the offense's fault if the kicker misses. And here are the game-by-game results. Scripted opening drives, Cousins' passing and drive summary: PASSING PLY YDS FD TOP RESULT PTSThe narrative holds up for the first part of the season, but it looks like the Klint and Kirk magic ran out in the second half of the season. There were no opening-drive touchdowns after the Baltimore game. Overall, Cousins still had a 134.9 quarterback rating on scripted opening drives. Now for the fourth quarter. For Cousins, it's strictly fourth-quarter stats, but for the drive data the drive either had to mostly happen in the fourth quarter or it had to begin in the fourth quarter. So, if a drive started with five minutes to go in the third and ended with a touchdown at the beginning of the fourth, it's not included. CMP/ATT YDS TD IN DRV PLY YDS FD TOP TD FG PU DW TO 3nO PTSSo, the question is: Why did the offense so consistently disappear in the middle of games for long periods of time? I don't believe it was simply Zimmer taking his foot off the gas until he needed it again in the fourth quarter. Cousins averaged nearly three full yards more per attempt on opening drives than he did in the second and third quarters. I would argue it was a combination of Zimmer wanting the offense to take its foot off the gas, Klint calling a more conservative game, and Cousins being mandated to be more careful with the ball and thus becoming a checkdown factory.This topic came up in @midwinterviking 's recent [OC] 2021 Game-By-Game Replay - Game 4 vs CLE thread, and I felt |
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This game is the reason I wanted to write this entire series. So many generalizations flow from this game that I need to see which ones are true: We need a dominant offensive line (like the Browns), Cousins takes too many check downs, the defense folds, the offense is uncreative, etc. Click here to read article Almost any argument for the Vikings being good in 2022 can have a, “Yeah, but what about that Browns game?”. That is why I think this game will be so illuminating when I think about what can change in 2022. Here are prior weeks’ reviews; the point of all of this is to set expectations for 2022. Game 1 @ CIN Game 2 @ ARI Game 3 vs SEA Interesting stat: The combine number of scoring drives in this game: four (one Vikings' touchdown, one Browns' touchdown, and two Browns' field goals). The Bears game in Chicago (which was also a mess) had five scoring drives; every other game the Vikings played had at least eight scoring drives. I picked this stat because it highlights the flow of the game – it was obvious that both defenses were going to make life difficult for opposing offenses. Even the long scoring drives for both teams were closely contested, and the offenses had to make a series of difficult plays to score. Key play: I’m going to highlight two plays: one by the offense and one by the defense that was very close to swinging the game the other way. Vikings on defense – Browns' 3rd and 20 from their own 26 with 0:35 in the half and no time outs. The only thing the Browns can reasonably be expected to do is kill the clock and avoid giving the Vikings an opportunity. The Browns' play call was exactly what was expected in that situation, a draw-play to get some yards and pin the Vikings deep. Then this:  There is no good reason for this to be a 33-yard gain for Kareem Hunt. The Vikings have six defenders versus three blockers that should be in a position to make a tackle. I could blame specific guys here: Alexander did nothing but jog down the field, Woods didn’t get to Hunt until about the 50, and Kendricks was held (sort of). But this seems like a microcosm of the end of the Zimmer era: Technically things should work, but in practice they just didn’t. It was like the Vikings knew what should happen and took their foot off the gas – with both play and play-calling. A lot of the guys at fault on this play (Woods, Vigil, Alexander) have been replaced. But the bigger question is: Will Kevin O’Connell have guys better prepared to make a play? Vikings on offense – 3rd and 12 and a 37-yard completion to Jefferson is wiped out by a holding call on Conklin (left side of image).  Rashod Hill was fooled by a zone blitz; Takkarist McKinley dropped into coverage while Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah came on a blitz. Hill saw McKinley drop and slid right. Interestingly, there were a few really great things on this play: Mattison does yeoman’s work picking up the blitzing Owusu-Koramoah, we have an Oli Udoh sighting as he stonewalls Jadeveon Clowney, and the throw was into lighter coverage in the area Owusu-Koramoah would have vacated with his blitz. Given how much worked, and the situation (3rd and 12), I have one question about this play design: WHY IN THE NAME OF ANYTHING SANE DO YOU ASK TYLER CONKLIN TO BLOCK MYLES GARRETT ONE-ON-ONE? It’s bad that Rashod Hill got fooled, but I can’t be too mad about that – the blitz was designed to fool him. But even if he wasn’t fooled, he was asked to block one of Owusu-Koramoah or McKinley ... not to help the second-string tight end block the Browns' All-Pro pass rusher. This wasn't smart. Now, let's go back to the interesting stat. At this point, the Vikings knew that this was a grind-out game with relatively few opportunities to be had. When they had a shot, they just left Conklin on his own and hoped nothing bad happened. Well, guess what? You always get burned in that kind of horrible Hill hole! On to the ratings - as a reminder, each unit will get +2, +1, -1, or -2 (no 0’s, I want an opinion on everything). Passing offense: This is a passing offense score, not a Kirk Cousins score. Between pass-blocking, receiving, play-calling and quarterback play, the passing game wasn’t prepared. However, of those groups, I would rank them from worst to best: play-calling, pass-blocking, quarterback play, and, finally, receivers. Play-calling and scheme were so bad I almost called this a -1 in order to dump that on the coaching staff later, but the rest made bad enough plays, as well. Game score: -2 (cumulative season to date: +2) Rushing offense: Not as bad as I expected. The yards-per-carry was low, but there were some good plays made by Cook and Mattison. The good plays weren’t enough to really impact the game, but it was enough to force the Browns to keep playing the run. Game score: -1 (cumulative season to date: +0) Pass defense: Solid game, once again led by the pass rush. There is a lesson in this game for the secondary: just stay close to a guy and you’ll make deep passes hard. Four games in, and the pass defense is carrying the team. It's interesting to know that this will fall off such a cliff later in the season. Game score: +2 (cumulative season to date: +4) Run defense: Also, not as bad as I remember. Outside of that key play, there weren’t a lot of plays where the run defense got gashed. There was a lot of Nick Chubb making fantastic individual efforts in traffic, but overall, much better than the yards-per-carry suggests. I can’t really rate this group any lower when the defense only allowed 14 points, forced more three-and-outs (4) than scoring drives (3), and they held firm on the last Browns' series to give the offense a puncher’s chance. Game score: +1 (cumulative season to date: +0) Special teams: They did nothing. They didn’t ruin the game, but also didn’t make any plays either. One of the dumbest plays of the game was the fourth timeout called by the Vikings while the Browns were kicking an extra point, resulting in a penalty and a two-point conversion, but that’s more preparation than play. This would be a "0" rating if I allowed them, but you have to make a play to get a positive number. Game score: -1 (cumulative season to date +1) Coaching: The play-calling for the passing game was atrocious, but when I look at preparation, clock management, aggression, and both sides of the ball, it was not their most egregiously bad game. The problem this game is that the offensive staff never seemed to understand what was going on in the game (that every first down would be a battle). Instead of trying to set their guys up to succeed, they tried to outsmart the Browns’ “punch 'em in the face” style. More on these mistakes below. The defense came mostly well-prepared. This wasn’t good, but it also wasn’t as bad as the Bengals or Cardinals losses. Game score: -1 (cumulative season to date: -3) Here is a view of the first two plays coming out of halftime. First:  This is not the only time they called this stupid screen play in the game, and I’ve seen something like this come up in every game so far. In sum: have a receiver run absolutely no route, just stand there and wait for the ball, and then try to make something happen on your own. I don't like it! This is not a situation where Cousins sees a defensive back playing off and tries to sneak a few yards for free. It’s also not a check down. It’s a designed play; you can see Thielen out in front of Jefferson setting up a block. The problem is this has no chance – Thielen can’t block both defenders running at Jefferson. It makes me wonder, if everything works exactly as intended, what is supposed to happen? There is a second problem with this type of so-called “just-stand-there” route. This is what Klint Kubiak uses as the check down option for pass plays: have a running back run the “just-stand-there” route and if the deep ball isn't there, you have set the team up for no positive outcome. The final, and maybe largest, issue with this "just-stand-there" route is that it is not what Jefferson is good at. He’s not the fastest receiver in the league nor will he make defenders tackle air. His best asset is his feet, hips and hands to get open downfield – where he is uncoverable. This is the Vikings' coaching staff not understanding their players. This play highlights why I think Kevin O'Connell could have a significantly positive impact on the offense. Now, the second play of that opening drive:  The blue line on that image is the line of scrimmage. Cook is seven yards behind it, facing the wrong way and already in traffic when he gets the ball. How many yards would you reasonably expect Cook to lose or gain in this situation (answer in a moment)? And again, not a check down or bail out on a deep throw, this is Cousins throwing the ball the place the play intended it to go. These short passes were absolutely not working in this game. The Browns were playing tight and pressing everything. The team's probability of success was low and required players to make great moves to make a positive play; there were many others in the game like them. The things that were sometimes working were deep drops on play action and quick passes. Cousins was under pressure but generally getting the ball out quickly. These play-calls, and others like them, eschewed attempts to beat the Browns in favor of attempts to trick the Browns' defense. The reason the coaching staff gets a negative rating is because they relied on individuals to make the plays, rather than setting the player up to make the play easily and have the individual effort be icing on the cake. It didn’t work, but the coaching rating isn’t worse because, in theory, these were called with the intent of countering the Browns' pass rush. And speaking of great individual efforts, Cook took that pass from -7 yards and turned it into a gain of six. Anyone who says Cook isn't worth his contract can go watch this play on a loop. I also looked for examples of Cousins coming off a deep receiver in favor of a shorter one. I didn’t think that was a major issue in this game. While I found a few of them, usually it was a medium versus a short route; much more often it was Cousins going short because of pressure. Here was the worst one I found:  This was right at the two-minute warning. It looks like Osborn is clearing the defender. It’s a risky throw but one worth the risk as Osborn would have converted the first down and Thielen did not (3rd and 4th down were incomplete). Maybe logic says take the 80% completion to Thielen (+2 attempts to convert the first down) over the 50% completion to Osborn, but at two minutes left in a low-scoring game, you have to try to win when the play is there. I don’t think it should have come down to this. There were a handful of absolutely amazing throws Cousins made. This game confirms my opinion that play-design and play-calling can absolutely set Cousins up to succeed even if he takes the easy throw on a play like this. Finally, while I think the Vikings could win this game easily with a better offensive approach, I will encourage you to decide for yourself how many pass interference calls you see on the last play:  Final Score: 7-14 Loss This game is the reason I wanted to write this entire series. So many generalizations flow from this game that I need to see which ones are true: We need a dominant offensive line (like the Browns), |
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I’m continuing my look back at 2021, looking for opportunities and changes that could be made with largely the same personnel for 2022. I’m working on a season preview type of piece, and with little else going on in the offseason, I’m posting what I see. Click here to read article Game 1 @ CIN Game 2 @ ARI Interesting stat: The box score says DK Metcalf killed the Vikings with 107 yards and a touchdown. But that story of the Vikings' secondary being shredded is incomplete. Because... DK Metcalf on the 1st drive: 55 yards + 1 TD DK Metcalf on the last 8 drives: 52 yards + 0 TDs Interesting stat runner-up: 22:40 vs. 7:20 – the Vikings' time of possession advantage in the second half. Key play: second quarter, third-and-three, the Vikings with the ball on their own 22, with the Seahawks leading 17-7. The Vikings had gone three-and-out their last drive, and Chris Carson shredded the Vikings on the ground after Metcalf shredded the Vikings through the air on the opening drive. If the Vikings go three-and-out on this drive, it could potentially put them in a big hole. Cousins drops back, looks, and is swarmed and ... sacked. BUT! There is a flag. Defensive holding, five yards, and an automatic first down. The momentum shift at this play was massive. The game was 7-17 before this and 23-0 after it. I don’t know if it was psychological, or just a lesson to never give an NFL team life. This also set up a great play. In the Cardinals' recap, I complained that there were too many pages in the section of the Vikings' playbook for “stupid screens”. This, on the other hand, is how screens are supposed to work.  Members of the Seahawks' defense are falling all over themselves trying to get after Cousins after they almost took control of the game on the previous "key play" - and then he’s just like, “Oops! Ball's over there; you missed it!” Bradbury is about to treat Jordyn Brooks (also #56) like a windshield treats a bug, and then Mattison is out-the-gate for 23 yards. Perfection. I’m going to go back into a few more interesting plays after ratings. As a reminder, each unit will get +2, +1, -1, or -2 (no 0’s; I want an opinion on everything). Passing offense: Overall, very good. It’s hard not to give a max score of +2 for a 323 Yds / 3 TD / 0 Int game, but I’m going to grade a bit more harshly in a win. Jefferson looked uncoverable, but did have some drops. Cousins was great converting some long third downs. The slight negative is that it was the passing game that stalled in the second half and left three potential touchdowns on the board in favor of three field goals. If another group wasn’t so dominant, that could have haunted the team this game. And if I split pass protection out into its own category, that would probably be a -1. But overall, very good. Game score: +1 (cumulative season to date: +4) Rushing offense: Dalvin Cook missed this game due to injury, but Mattison was dominant. Maybe the yards-per-carry wasn’t gaudy, but I’m going to look the other way on that because I’m so starstruck by how good Mattison was in the screen game (yes, I’m aware that’s technically a pass, and I don’t care). Game score: +2 (cumulative season to date: +1) Pass defense: This is the group that kept their foot on Seattle’s throat. The pass rush was the star here; pressure covered up any mistakes. Patrick Peterson had a heck of a game when he was matched up against DK Metcalf. Coverage was aggressive. Wilson’s 298 yards might look solid, but there were 90+ garbage yards at the end of the two halves that didn’t lead to any points (or even much of a threat of points). Makes me wonder what’s going to happen later in the season if this unit will disintegrate… Game score: +2 (cumulative season to date: +2) Run defense: Only okay. The dominance of the Vikings' pass defense put the Seahawks in a position where they didn’t have a chance to run much, but they were effective when they did. Game score: -1 (cumulative season to date: -1) Special teams: I won’t give out a bad score when Joseph goes 6/6 on kicks for 12 points. But the return game stunk, so not much to brag about. Game score: +1 (cumulative season to date +2) Coaching: This game was mostly what we asked for. Clock management at the end of the first half was great, scoring a touchdown to take the lead with 0:16 seconds in the half. Great adjustments shut down Metcalf after the first drive. A couple of good play calls. Aggressively playing to win the game (turning Cousins loose to throw on third-and-eight with 2:08 left iced the game). Credit where it’s due; this coaching performance was absolutely playoff team quality. Game score: +2 (cumulative season to date: -2) This was a comfortable win, but the reason I’m looking at all of this is: changes and opportunity for 2022. Here are a few plays I noticed: We’re going back to the "stupid screen" section of the playbook. Why?  Really? I say something nice about the screens, and then they pull this one out in a crowded stadium? Thielen is seven yards behind the line of scrimmage when he catches this with no help. There isn’t even any pressure that Cousins has to avoid. The Cousins-to-Jefferson dug the offense back out of the hole this created, but this is clearly an opportunity to be better. There's no trickery at all. The Vikings' coaching staff doesn't seem to understand: You don't call screens whenever you want; you call them whenever the other team doesn't want you to. The next thing I was looking for was coverage breaks in the secondary. This was one of the big plays by the Seahawks, a crossing route to Will Dissly:  My takes from this play: - This shouldn’t be that difficult of a cover for Kendricks. This play represented 17% of Dissly’s yards for the entire season. There isn’t anyone else around for Kendricks to be concerned about, so what’s going on? Maybe there is more of this that explains the Asamoah pick. - The more I watch, the more all aboard I am the Lewis Cine train. Look at this play and ask yourself: given the coverage, where do you think this play should be stopped? Woods is breaking on the runner who, I’ll remind you, had 231 yards for the whole season. Dissly made it all the way to the Minnesota 33. That’s 15 yards out of the frame mostly because Woods whiffed on the tackle. Yeah, this is a completion, but it was unnecessary for this to be a huge, 39-yard explosive play. Here's hoping Cine would hit Will so hard it makes him Dissly. Next up, the first play of the game… what is this on defense!?  The first play of the game and the Vikings are in a 3-4! I must see how this plays out! (Does it count as a cliffhanger if I only have to wait three seconds?)  Wilson avoided a huge sack by Hunter. Then Vigil started to break on Wilson instead of staying in his zone and lost contact with Metcalf. With a little practice, this could work. That is Blake Lynch in at ROLB who rushed. Lynch accomplished nothing other than to ensure Hunter had a 1:1 match-up. I can’t help but think this could be made better somehow…  Finally, one for anyone who ever argues Cousins can’t make plays under pressure. Third down, Vikings trying to salt away a lead. Fourth quarter is winning time, and what happens?  Insert ice water into veins: completion to Osborn, 15 yards, first down! (Also: atta boy, Ezra Cleveland!) Final Score: 30-17 Win I’m continuing my look back at 2021, looking for opportunities and changes that could be made with largely the same personnel for 2022. I’m working on a season preview type of piece, and with little |
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After the controversial trade-down yesterday, I'd like to crunch the numbers on the history of selections the Vikings and Lions will be taking to see which side is better. Click here to read article For the full explanation on how my analysis is conducted, please refer to Part 1 here. Here is the history for picks 12-14:  Picks 32-34:  Picks 45-47:  Picks 65-67:  Summary:  My thoughts - it's still a bad trade. Picks in the upper teens will result in elite players far more often than any of the other ones, and I think there were a couple guys on the board. It's also concerning that the history of picks 32-34 is quite bad, and the average outcome is a middling starter. My initial study concluded that 3rd rounders weren't as valuable as I had originally thought, so netting a high 3rd doesn't do much for me. Even at picks 65-67, the odds are that you'll land a rotational player. Your thoughts? After the controversial trade-down yesterday, I'd like to crunch the numbers on the history of selections the Vikings and Lions will be taking to see which side is better. For the full |
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With nothing new going on for a while, I’m going back and looking at all the Vikings' 2021 games. With the context of the entire season and time to marinate, I want to get a better sense of how things went. Click here to read article I’m looking for a few things: 1) what went well, and considering if this is something that might continue 2) close calls that could have a different outcome with very little (if any change) 3) bad things with an eye to see if the 2022 Vikings have made changes to address them This is all research for a future post, but with nothing new to write about I can share what I find during my research – oftentimes, comments along the way prompt me to look at things I wasn’t thinking of. I’m not sure what the conclusions will be yet, so as I make it through the season I will also be watching for patterns. I’m also going to keep a running score along the way. I’m rating different aspects of the game: passing offense, rushing offense, pass defense, run defense, special teams, and coaching. For each game, each unit will get +2, +1, -1, or -2 (no 0’s - everything has to be positive or negative). Two reasons for this: I wanted to drill into needed changes and see what kind of trends appear. Week 1 - Vikings at Bengals: lost 24-27 in overtime Interesting stat: Joe Burrow threw for 261 yards, which was below his season average of 288. To get that, he needed overtime and a 50-yard touchdown with 35 seconds left in the first half – that shouldn’t happen. So for most of the game, the Vikings' defense held the Super Bowl quarterback in check. Key play: A minute before the 50-yard touchdown, the Bengals were down 0-7 with the ball near midfield just under two minutes in the half. The Bengals looked to be trying to run the clock down and go into the half tied. The Vikings had an offsides penalty, giving Burrow a free play; the free play was a pass interference by Breeland in the end zone. Bengals score, and have time to try the shot to Chase. This double-penalty really sped up the Bengals' offense. Passing offense: Cousins was mostly sharp. Passes were usually on target, and the passing offense overcame several long down and distances. KJ Osborn showed up and made some key plays including a huge fourth-down conversion with 30 seconds left in the game. And this was with horrible pass blocking and an avalanche of penalties. I would be very happy with this version of Cousins; his worst plays were slightly inaccurate passes. Better work on the offensive line and Cousins could have thrown for 450 yards instead of 350. The group should have put up three passing touchdowns but the refs ruled Justin Jefferson down inside the one-yard line on a spectacular catch. Game score: +1 (season to date +1) Rushing offense: This was horrible. I think I saw Cook with one good run,, and that was in the first quarter. He ran hard but the run blocking was terrible, and there was nothing at all there. Cook’s one touchdown should have been a touchdown by Jefferson the play earlier (bad call). Just for good measure, Cook had the overtime "fumble" that likely cost the Vikings the game. Game score: -2 (season to date -2) Pass defense: Not as bad as my memory made it out to be; I remembered Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase shredding this unit, but that’s not what happened. There was great pressure generated by both the defensive line and blitzes. Short passes were hit and contained quickly. It was really just those two bad plays late in the first half; otherwise, I was satisfied with the pass defense. There were some big-time throws by Burrow, but that’s just a quarterback hitting passes - not terrible pass defense. Game score: +1 (season to date +1) Run defense: Not good enough. The pass defense held but the run defense didn’t. The only thing that keeps this from being worse is that there weren’t any big run plays. Mixon is a good back, but the Bengals' offensive line simply wore down the Vikings' defense. Game score: -1 (season to date -1) Special teams: Really, really good: good punt coverage, no mistakes on returns, and a 50+ yard field goal to tie the game as time expired. This game was all around solid for special teams. Based on one game, I am happy bringing back the specialists. They could have gotten more out of returns, but I'm not going to worry too much about not breaking a big return in one game. Game score: +2 (season to date +2) Coaching: The team flat out wasn’t prepared. There was an obscene number of penalties, called bootlegs that didn’t work, Cook was repeatedly smashed into a line with no holes, etc. Clock management was… actually clock management was pretty good. Game score: -2 (season to date -2) Looking to 2022: There were so many things that could have gone differently: The Breeland penalty, the Cook fumble, controlling even a few penalties, Darrisaw providing even slightly-improved protection, and so on. The Vikings showed up with the better team and shot their own foot off. If the team can match their play from this game with even slightly fewer and less egregious blunders, they should be fine. Given the reputation Breeland developed over 2021, I want to take a closer look at him in this game. He at least deserves a fair trial before being convicted of being the cause of all passing-game failures in 2021. A case in defense of Bashaud Breeland There were three plays where Breeland was beaten that really influenced the game: 1) the pass interference I mentioned above 2) the 50-yard touchdown to Chase right before halftime 3) a big play to Tee Higgins on an out on the first drive of the second half that broke open that drive and led to a 21-7 Bengals' lead Here are all three of those plays. I’m looking to see if this mistake was on the coaching staff or Breeland just clowning around. First - the pass interference:  I think this is on Breeland; the ball is in the air and he shoved Tee Higgins rather than turning around to play the ball. Maybe Higgins makes the catch, but a shove definitely gives the ball to the Bengals inside the five. Second - the 50-yard touchdown pass to Ja'Marr Chase  The game situation in this is important; there were 35 seconds left, and the Bengals had no timeouts. This isn’t bad coverage. Here’s the problem though:  Ja'Marr Chase runs a 4.34 in the 40 versus Breeland who runs a 4.62. What is Breeland supposed to do here? Run faster? Chase’s top speed is just plain faster than Breeland. He’s got no help over the top. The coaching staff should know the only dangerous play is a deep ball, and they (should) know what Breeland’s physical abilities are. On this play, my take is that Breeland did as much as he could to make this as difficult of a pass and catch as possible, but at some point, a receiver that is straight up faster than the defender will run deep. And Burrow is facing absolutely no pressure on that play, despite five defenders rushing. The final play - the 28-yard out to Tee Higgins:  Again, Breeland isn’t in a bad spot. But look at how much space he has to cover. Harrison Smith is rotating to the right while Burrow is still surveying the field, and Breeland is left to cover 1/3 or more of the field by himself. If he plays outside in this situation, Higgins can just run straight up the seam for an easy touchdown. In this situation if Burrow puts the pass to the sideline on the money (he did), there is nothing Breeland could do. Breeland did slip on the cut and what could have been a 10-15 yard gain ended up being 28 yards – but even if he doesn’t slip this is a completion for a first down. Breeland lost all three of those reps, but the question I have to ask is: was he set up for success? He had a chance on the first one, and the pass interference was a mistake. The other two would have been extremely difficult plays to make in 1:1 coverage. All-Pro Jalen Ramsey got beat in the Super Bowl by Higgins and Chase; Breeland was a late-offseason, inexpensive addition. I think the blame falls as much or more on the coaching staff for throwing Breeland into a situation where getting torched was likely – just hoping any ol’ corner will play like peak-form Xavier Rhodes is not a sound plan. Final Score: 24-27 OT Loss With nothing new going on for a while, I’m going back and looking at all the Vikings' 2021 games. With the context of the entire season and time to marinate, I want to get a better sense of how |
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Let the "games" begin Click here to read article When the calendar turns to March and April each year, the NFL draft has become like The Hunger Games; fans of all "districts" scour the internet for every nugget of information they can get and build their mock draft "tributes" in the hopes of predicting the seemingly unpredictable event. If you were a Vikings fan during the last eight drafts under the prior regime of "capitol president" Rick Spielman and "head gamemaker" Mike Zimmer, the odds "were ever in your favor" if you predicted a cornerback early and a stockpiling of late-round picks. Of the Vikings' nine round 1 picks from 2014-2021, three (33%) were used on cornerbacks, and 35 of the Vikings' 85 total sections (41%) during that timeframe were selected in rounds 6 and 7. The Vikings averaged 10.6 picks per-year, including an NFL- record 38 picks over a three-season stretch from 2019-2021, which calculates to an eye-opening 12.6 picks per-year. Now that the 2022 calendar has turned towards the draft once again, Vikings fans are wondering if new players general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and head coach Kevin O'Connell will continue along the prior regime's draft strategies - especially since many fans feel they are running the same 2021 team back again in 2022 - or will the new collaboration change the rules like Katniss and Peeta being declared double-winners and start a revolution towards the ultimate prize in any game: the Lombardi trophy? Knowing that O'Connell is a disciple from the Mike Shanahan "coaching tree" that Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur and Zac Taylor fall under - and knowing that Adofo-Mensah spent three seasons in the 49ers organization during Kyle Shanahan's first three seasons as head coach - looking at the draft selections of those coaches could provide some insight as to which path the Vikings take in the upcoming Draft. Total draft picks: how much is "too much"? The following table represents the draft selections by each day of the draft, with day 3 broken out between "early" (rounds 4 and 5) and "late" (rounds 6 and 7) with totals and averages for each day, as well as detail on which positions were drafted for each day. The figures were taken from each team's all-time draft history from Pro Football Reference.  The immediate takeaway is that the Shanahan coaches make 8.6 selections per-year, which is two fewer picks than the Vikings' 10.6 per-year average under Spielman and Zimmer. While the prior Vikings' regime selected more players - especially from 2019-2021 where they accumulated four more picks per-year - that strategy resulted in three total playoff appearances, two division titles and one conference championship appearance. Compared to the 10 playoff appearances, eight division titles, seven conference championship appearances, four super bowl appearances and one Lombardi trophy of the Shanahan coaches from 2017-2021, perhaps the Vikings could adopt a "less is more" and/or a "quality over quantity" approach in 2022. The other interesting analysis is what day those additional Vikings' selections came from. The Shanahan coaches selected approximately one player on day 1, two players on day 2, nearly two-and-a-half players during the early rounds on day 3 and three players in the later rounds of day 3. The Vikings were nearly identical on days 1 and 2, but selected an additional player on-average in the early and later portions of day 3, which makes sense given "Trader Rick's" propensity for trading down, especially in the middle rounds. Former ESPN Vikings journalist Courtney Cronin wrote last draft season that the Vikings executed, "35 draft-day trades since 2012, which is tied for the most in the NFL in that span". As Cronin suggests in that article, the strategy of stockpiling late day 3 picks didn't necessarily coincide with the "win-now" mentality that Spielman employed, given the timeline it takes to develop those players. With the Vikings' ownership and Adofo-Mensah also maintaining a plan to remain competitive, it's reasonable to assume that the Vikings would be wise to shift gears towards rounds 4 and 5 versus rounds 6 and 7. Knowing that the Vikings have only one selection in rounds 4 and 5 with four selections in rounds 6 and 7, if Adofo-Mensah wants to imitate the Shanahan coaching draft strategies, he should be looking to trade down in the early rounds in 2022 to acquire more day 2 and early day 3 capital and then possibly move up in those middle rounds. Positional draft value But knowing the number of picks the Shanahan coaches select each draft day is only part of the equation; the actual positions they target is the other. The early table included not just the number of picks by day, but also included the different positions selected during those rounds. The following table details the various offensive, defensive and special teams positions that that the Shanahan coaches have collectively drafted on each day:  When you first look to the total on the far right, it's nearly a 50/50 split between offense and defense, but when you take a deeper look into the table, the Shanahan coaches tend to focus more on the offensive side of the ball on day 2 and then shift their focus towards defense on day 3. The Vikings actually had a similar approach from 2014-2021; on day 2 they drafted offense 56% of the time and then only 43% on day 3. The Vikings even made two special team selections in that timeframe - Daniel Carlson in 2018 and Austin Cutting in 2019 - which closely resembles the three special team selections the Shanahan coaches made from 2017-2021. That's where the similarities seem to end. On day 1, the Shanahan coaches have placed an emphasis on the quarterback and defensive line positions, which account for 50% of their day 1 selections. Of the Vikings' nine day 1 selections from 2014-2021, they selected only one quarterback or defensive line prospect: Teddy Bridgewater in 2014. On day 2, the Shanahan coaches attacked the offensive skill positions (running back, wide receiver, tight end) and the back-end of the defense (linebacker, defensive back) by making 78% of their picks in those areas. By contrast, the Vikings invested just 44% of their day 2 picks into those same areas, choosing to focus more on the offensive line/defensive line (44%) versus the Shanahan coaches who went offensive line/defensive line only 19% of the time on day 2. Specifically targeting the wide receiver position, the Shanahan coaches made eight picks on day 2 versus the Spielman-Zimmer combo who never selected that position on day 2 in eight years. On day 3, the Shanahan coach strategy seems to be drafting and developing interior offensive line and linebacker more so than any other position groups by taking those two groups with 30% of their picks on day 3, versus the Vikings at only 22%. The other notable difference is the focus on running backs late on day 3, with the Shanahan coaches selecting nine running backs late on day 3. The Vikings focused on the running back position on day 2 (Jerick McKinnon, Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison) and early on day 3 (Kene Nwangwu). Conclusion - what the 2022 draft could look like for the Minnesota Vikings With the 2022 draft just one month away, here is where the Vikings stand in terms of draft picks by round: Round 1: one pick (12th) Round 2: one pick (46th) Round 3: one pick (77th) Round 4: no picks Round 5: one pick (156th) Round 6: three picks (184th, 191st, 192nd) Round 7: one pick (250th) Total picks: 8 Looking at the current state of the roster before the draft, the Vikings have the following positional needs: interior offensive line, cornerback, linebacker, safety, tight end and possible quarterback depth. Even though the eight total picks the Vikings have closely resembles the 8.6 total selections that the Shanahan coaching tree has made the last five seasons, it's difficult to imagine the Vikings filling all of those rosters holes with both quality starting-level prospects and key depth pieces, given that only three of their eight selections are on days 1 and 2. The first tendency is to think about trading down in round 1 to acquire more day 2 selections, but something the Shanahan coaches have done suggest otherwise: they tend to trade up in round 1 over trading down. While Zac Taylor's Bengals haven't moved in round 1 during his tenure as head coach, the other three Shanahan coaches have been inclined to either move up in round 1 or, in McVay's case, trade round 1 selections for proven NFL players. Kyle Shanahan has moved up in round 1 in 2020 twice (to draft Javon Kinlaw and Brandon Aiyuk. The latter involving a patented trade down by "Trader Rick") and once in 2021 (moving up in the top 3 to grab quarterback Trey Lance). LaFleur has traded up in round 1 in two of his first three seasons: trading up in the backend of round 1 in 2019 for safety Darnell Savage and again in 2020 for quarterback Jordan Love. If the Vikings are going to get a fourth-round pick back and have more middle-round capital, they're going to have to look to trade down in round 2 and possibly round 3. With the full knowledge of the Shanahan coaching tree draft history, here's a reasonable take on where the Vikings could ultimately draft and what positions they could take in those rounds: Round 1: one pick (12th); DL or WR Round 2: one pick (57th); WR, DB - following trade down with Buffalo* Round 3: one pick (90th); LB, TE, IOL - following trade down with Tennessee** Round 4: two picks (115th, 143rd); DL, DB - following trade up with Denver*** Round 5: two picks: (146th, 168th); DL, DB, LB - following trade up with NYJ**** Round 6: one pick: (191st); RB, IOL, LB, DB Round 7: one pick (231st); RB, IOL, LB, DB Total picks: 9 *Minnesota trades down pick #46 (Rd 2) to Buffalo (33 pts) for picks #57 (Rd 2), #130 (Rd 4), #168 (Rd 5) and #231 (Rd 7) **Minnesota trades down pick #77 (Rd 2) to Tennessee (15 pts) for picks #90 (Rd 3) and #143 (Rd 4) ***Denver trades down pick #115 (Rd 4) to Minnesota (7 pts) for picks #130 (Rd 4) and #184 (Rd 6) and #250 (Rd 7) ****NYJ trades down pick #143 (Rd 5) to Minnesota (3 pts) for picks #156 (Rd 5) and #192 (Rd 6) It's entirely possible that the Vikings follow the 49ers' and Packers' strategy of trading up in round 1. That would probably take "Sauce" Gardner falling to #9 Seattle, or Gardner going in the top 5 and the Vikings being okay with Derek Stingley Jr.'s medicals to get ahead of the NYJ at #10. Barring those scenarios or a potential trade-down, the Vikings will likely go BPA at defensive line or wide reciever. Even though it would certainly cause some fan backlash given all of their recent free agent activity at the position in the last few years, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Vikings select Georgia's defensive tackle Jordan Davis to be the true nose tackle in Donatell's 3-4. O'Connell could also be tempted with the possibility of Alabama's wide reciever Jameson Williams, as well. The real action for this draft scenario for the Vikings begins on day 2 as they trade back both their round 2 and round 3 picks to build back some early day 3 draft capital, courtesy of a couple AFC contenders in Buffalo and Tennessee. The Vikings then cash-in their extra late day 3 picks to trade up with Denver in round 4 - who have back-to-back picks early in round 4 - and the Jets in round 5, who currently have no picks after #163. The nine total selections moves the Vikings closer to the 8.6 selections the Shanahan coaching tree averages, rounded up, of course, and gives O'Connell and his staff more middle-round depth to develop sooner, which is in-line with the "rebuilding" part of Kwesi's "competitive rebuild" model. Happy Hunger Games...err draft season...to everyone, and with the new Viking regime in-place, and "may the odds be ever in" their favor.  Let the "games" begin When the calendar turns to March and April each year, the NFL draft has become like The Hunger Games; fans of all "districts" scour |
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It has been some time since my latest draft analysis article, and this time I'm getting serious. Instead of just looking at the picks and giving grades, I’ve taken Pro Football Reference’s draft data from 2010 to 2018 and crunched the data on some data points related to the Vikings’ 2022 draft picks. I will go through every selection we have and examine the historical picks that were taken in the vicinity of ours, and go through the best case/worst case scenarios along with the average outcome. Click here to read article I will be using two primary factors to rate the players – PFR’s AV and PFF’s grades. The AV (Approximate Value) has some problems that pop up (the more snaps and games a player participates in boosts AV even if they didn’t play well), so I will balance it against PFF’s ratings (which have their own problems, of course). It took a long time to plug in all the PFF values of all the players who played enough snaps from 2010-2018 – so let’s get this show on the road! (I stopped at 2018 because I felt 2019 was too recent for the players to accrue enough snaps/haven't fully developed yet.) Key: For PFF, I took the grade from the player’s career and assigned it a value based on its percentile compared to rest of the players at that position. The grades work like this: Top 10% = Elite 10-20% = Great 20-30% = Good 30-40% = Above average 40-60% = Average 60-70% = Below average 70-80% = Poor 80-90% = Awful 90 -100% = Abysmal – this tier will also count Not Enough Info players who never played enough snaps to be evaluated. As for AV, a player will range from 0 to around 20 and roughly correlates to this: 0-2 AV = Backup 2-5 AV = Part-time to average starter 6-10 AV = Average to good starter 10-15 AV = Good to great player 15-20 AV = Great to elite Here is an example of what I’m looking at:  I am examining picks 11, 12, and 13 over the aforementioned nine-year stretch and coming to these conclusions: AV: 8.15 / PFF between Good to Above Average (37% closer to Good) Best case scenario: DT Aaron Donald / DT Fletcher Cox Worst case scenario: CB Vernon Hargreaves III / CB D.J. Hayden (PFR / PFF) Average scenario: PFR: RB Ryan Mathews / WR Odell Beckham PFF: LT Taylor Lewan / DT Sheldon Richardson Let’s compare these results to potentially moving down to the #18-20 spots in a hypothetical trade with the Saints/Steelers/someone else. Here are the results: AV: 6.15 / PFF between Above Average to Average (26% closer to Above Average) Best case scenario: CB Marcus Peters / C Frank Ragnow / CB Jaire Alexander Worst case scenario: TE O. J. Howard / SS Calvin Pryor / OL Cameron Erving Average scenario: PFR: LB Leighton Vander Esch / LT Garrett Bolles / DE Shaq Lawson PFF: RT Ja’Wuan James / CB Prince Amukamara I knew there would be a gap in quality, but this is bigger than I expected. The AV drops off by 25%, which is a massive shift for just a six-to-eight pick difference (PFF drops 20%). The results are clear – there are usually no blue chip/superstar prospects left around the second half of the first round, while a few gems slip past the top ten picks and land in the early teens. This suggests that if the Vikings move back, it must be for a haul. Thankfully, moving up in the first round has never been more expensive, and moving back to the 20th pick would surely result in a future first-rounder. Next, let’s go through the rest of the picks the Vikings own. Pick 2-46 (pick 45 to 47) AV: 6.33 / PFF between Above Average to Average (36% closer to Average) Best case scenario: RB Derrick Henry / LB Bobby Wagner Worst case scenario: CB Quincy Wilson / TE Gavin Escobar Average scenario: PFR: WR Christian Kirk / FS Rahim Moore PFF: G Zane Beadles / LB Kiko Alonso Yes, you’re seeing that right – the AV for picks 45-47 is higher than picks 18-20. I’d chalk that up to AV’s weirdness and a few really good players went in this stretch (Michael Thomas, Linval Joseph, Stephon Tuitt are on that list). PFF thinks the players are a slight downgrade. On the aggregate, I like the crop of players that have been taken around this spot – most of them became full-time starters and a few were rotational guys. Note that from here on, the worst-case scenario players will all be pointless to name since there will be a whole bunch of players who never contributed anything. Instead I will note the size of the group of sub-replacement level players. Pick 3-77 (76 to 78) AV: 4.99 / PFF Below Average to Poor (2% closer to Below Average) Best case scenario: DT Jurrell Casey / WR Keenan Allen Worst case scenarios: 30% - 44.4% Average scenario: PFR: LB Alex Anzalone / C Travis Swanson PFF: WR Marquise Goodwin / CB Daryl Worley There’s a massive drop-off between rounds two and three. On average, teams are not drafting starters here, or if they are, they are below average starters. Over one-third of the picks are non-contributors. Perhaps it would be wise to lower our expectations for 3rd-round picks (2021, anyone?). Now let’s prepare for the plunge into the 5th round! Pick 5-156 (Picks 155-157) AV: 2.46 / PFF Awful to Abysmal/Not Enough Info (26% closer to Awful) Best case scenario: C Scott Quessenberry / LB Jayon Brown Worst case scenarios: 66.7% - 74% Average scenario: PFR: CB LeShaun Sims / RB Brian Hill PFF: P Jeff Locke / RB Jonathan Williams This is as bleak as I expected. Very few of these players became starters, and only a few broke out and became starters – a few notable names being TE Tyler Conklin, TE CJ Uzomah, and DL Arthur Jones. The expectation for a 5th-rounder in this range should be for a backup player. Picks 6-184, 6-191, 6-192 (Picks 184-192) Instead of doing three picks, here’s a stretch of nine picks. AV: 1.5 / PFF Awful to Abysmal/Not Enough Info (24% closer to Awful) Best case scenario: C Jason Kelce / LB Danny Trevathan Worst case scenarios: 80% - 82.7% Average scenario: PFR: SS DeAndre Houston-Carson / RB Mike James PFF likes this group more than the 5th-rounders above, but outside of a few picks that clicked, very few players ended up contributing anything. Even the successes here are minor, resulting in a couple good punters, blocking tight ends, and a few backup players who did well when they got a chance. The Vikings shouldn’t be afraid to move any of these picks. Pick 7-250 (Picks 249-251) AV: 0.6 / PFF Awful to Abysmal/Not Enough Info (34% closer to Abysmal/NEI) Best case scenario: RB Chris Carson / FS Stevie Brown Worst case scenarios: 74%-85% As you should expect at this point, there’s not much to talk about here, since the end of the 7th round is no different than signing UDFAs. Finally, here's a couple charts with the results for every pick, not just the Vikings' selections. Remember that these are the averages; the top tiers of great and elite will not be reached on the charts, but that does not mean that players of that caliber cannot be found there, just that their value is diluted by the rest of the players.   The charts are about what you'd expect. There are a chunk of picks that cause the graph to spike in either direction, but it's clear that over a longer stretch of time, the average value of the pick will be less than the ones ahead of it. I will be working on Part 2 where I examine the positions with the same AV/PFF rating system, and determine whether there are certain rounds that are better for some positions. Any thoughts? What are your opinions on the Vikings moving down in the first round (or even up)?It has been some time since my latest draft analysis article, and this time I'm getting serious. Instead of just looking at the picks and giving grades, I’ve taken Pro Football Reference’s draft data |
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The Vikings have just hired a rookie GM and paired him with a rookie HC, so I'm sure you're all wondering how other teams have fared after following this path. Fear not and wonder no more, after much research the answers shall be revealed. Click here to read article The cut off point used for this article is 2010, and there is 1 disclaimer. Bruce Arians was hired in 2013 as the new HC of the Cardinals. The year before, while on the Colts staff, Arians was named Interim HC after Chuck Pagano was being treated for Leukemia from weeks 5 through 16. The official stats credited all wins/losses for the Colts to Pagano, so even though Arians was making the game day decisions, his HC record doesn't start until 2013, so Arians is included here as a frst time HC. So let's get into it. 2012 Raiders Since losing the Super Bowl in 2002, the Raiders have been a bit of a basket case, churning through HCs and GMs faster than you can blink. In 2012, the Raiders hired Reggie McKenzie as their new GM and Dennis Allen as HC. Coming off an 8-8 season under Hue Jackson, things didn't go well for Allen as he authored consecutive 4-12 seasons in 2012/2013 before being fired after an 0-4 start in 2014. Allen compiled an 8-28(.222) record. Things haven't improved much since Allen's departure as the Raiders lurch from one SNAFU to another, culminating in the Gruden resignation this past season. 2013 Chargers The Chargers had a decent run through the 2007-2012 seasons with Norv Turner. They won the division the first 3 years but bombed in the playoffs and then missed the playoffs the next 3 seasons and plateaued around the .500 mark. Enter 2013 and a new regime was appointed with Tom Telesco announced as GM and Mike McCoy as HC. McCoy had been the OC of division rivals Denver for the previous 4 seasons and it was hoped he could coax better production from QB Phillip Rivers. After putting together a 9-7 season and playoff berth his first season, McCoy couldn't build any momentum and was subsequently fired after 2016 following a 5-11 season. He compiled a 27-37 (.422) record and was 1-1 in the playoffs. 2013 Jaguars The Jacksonville Jaguars have managed 1 winning season since 2007. Unfortunately for Gus Bradley, who was hired in 2013 along with first time GM David Caldwell, he resided over what was the worst span in Jags history to that point. Bradley put together a 14-48 (.226) record that almost killed his career, and was fired before the end of the 2016 season after notching up a 2-12 record. Needless to say, the Jags continue to wallow in sorrow and are in a bad place right now. 2013 Cardinals The Cardinals seemed like a team on the rise in 2008 when, under HC Ken Wisenhunt, they turned a 9-7 division winning record into an NFC Championship and their first trip to the Super Bowl. While they were eventually beaten 23-27 by the Pittsburgh Steelers, Wisenhunt had taken a team that had suffered 8 consecutive losing seasons and moulded them into a winner. Unfortunately the winning didn't last long, and after a 10-6 season in 2009 the team slumped to 5-11 in 2012 and Wisenhunt was fired. Enter 2013 and new HC Bruce Arians joined first time GM Steve Keim to attempt to right the ship. Arians immediately sparked the Cards to 3 consecutive winning seasons and 2 playoff berths with newly acquired QB Carson Palmer and a retooled defense. The momentum couldn't be sustained however, and after the 13-3 2015 season the next 2 years yielded 7-8-1 and 8-8 records. Arians compiled a 49-30-1 (.619) record went 1-2 in the playoffs. 2015 Jets After a 4-12 season under Rex Ryan in 2014, the Jets decided to move on. They appointed Mike Maccagnan as GM and then hired Todd Bowles as HC. An immediate turnaround followed with Ryan Fitzpatrick replacing Geno Smith at QB leading the team to a 10-4 record. The wheels quickly fell off though, and the wingless Jets went 5-11; 5-11; 4-12 the following 3 seasons and Bowles was dismissed after compiling a 24-40 (.375) record. It's worth noting the Jets used 5 QBs over this time, Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty, Geno Smith, Josh McCown, and rookie Sam Darnold. 2017 Bills The Bills were a team flailing around with no identity since their wildcard playoff loss in 1999. They had chewed through 7 HCs and 2 interim coaches from 2000 to 2016, and at the conclusion of the 2016 season were searching for answers yet again. They parted company with GM Doug Whaley and HC Rex Ryan in an attempt to get the organization on the path to success. Enter the era of HC Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane. In the 5 years since taking control, the Bills have had only 1 losing season and gone 9-7; 6-10; 10-6; 13-3; 11-6 with 4 playoff berths, 2 division championships, and are poised to be a force for many years with QB Josh Allen leading the way. The Bills blueprint was to purge the roster of over priced vets and reset the salary cap in the new regimes first year while rolling with a stop gap QB, and then reshape the roster in subsequent years to reflect what they have built now. So far things are going well, and with Allen improving each year the Bills should remain an AFC force for years to come. 2017 49ers After 4 years of high level play through the 2011-2014 seasons the Niners lost their way with Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly surviving one season each before being replaced and polarizing GM Trent Baalke was dismissed at the conclusion of the 2016 season. A new regime was ushered in with the hope to provide some stability, and Kyle Shanahan was named HC with John Lynch taking over as GM. The early years were tough, as the roster was in poor shape and needed a rebuild, so records of 6-10 and 4-12 the first 2 seasons wasn't surprising. In their third season together, Shanahan and Lynch saw their plan pay off as the 49ers made it to the Super Bowl in 2019. The past 2 seasons have yielded mixed results through injuries and inconsistent QB play, but with the Niners poised to unleash Trey Lance in 2022 all eyes will be on San Francisco to see if the bold plan to move up in the 2021 draft for Lance was a wise move. 2020-2021 Three teams followed the first time GM/HC plan over this time span, and it's not really useful to try and glean anything from the Falcons and Lions regimes of 2021 or the Browns new staff that has only had 2 years at the helm. Conclusion So, I'm not sure you can really say if the first time GM/HC combination is a success or failure. There have certainly been mixed results, but I think as with everything NFL, QB matters. It is also worth noting that patience is also important, and the combinations that have been given the time to implement their plan are likely to succeed. Having said that, this really is a small sample size and some of these organizations are basket cases.The Vikings have just hired a rookie GM and paired him with a rookie HC, so I'm sure you're all wondering how other teams have fared after following this path. Fear not and wonder no more, after much |
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I am not super invested in either the GM or HC hunt as I do not feel qualified to judge either of those positions and have to just trust ownership to make a good decision. As much as we fans like to believe we know who would make a good coach or GM, I just don't see how we possibly could know if a retread who failed as HC the first time has finally figured things out, or if an OC who has never been a HC before can transition to coach an entire team and we certainly don't know if a glorified assistant GM is making any good decisions on their current team. Click here to read article So, instead I thought I would look at how we make the players better, specifically who we need to replace to improve significantly. Starting positions that are either free agents or that were filled by players who were below average at best. Positions of need: CB RDE LB RG C TE2 FS K P Ammo to improve those positions: A 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 5th (Baltimore's), 3 6ths and a 7th round pick. -11 Million in cap. A lot of holes, and very few assets to help fill them, which means the Vikings need to either settle for what they already have, make a trade to gain more assets (cap space and picks), cut some players who are underperforming per their contract, or borrow cap from 2023 and beyond. Tradeable Assets: Danielle Hunter Trading Hunter gets the Vikings 14 million in cap, and at least a 1st round pick (based on what the lesser Ngakoue got via a trade). It also creates a new hole at the LDE spot and removes the best player on the defense. I can see good arguments for this trade, as well as good arguments against it. If you trade him, you don't have to lock up 28 million per year in an extension in 2023 and can look to improve both DE spots in free agency with lesser DEs who combined can give you what Hunter does. Or maybe draft a DE who isn't quite as good, but who is significantly cheaper for 4-5 years. If you keep him, you have something every team covets: a game changing DE in his prime. In order to make this post more interesting and get more assets to work with to improve the team, I am going to say we trade him. New cap: +3 million New picks: 2 1sts, 2nd,2 3rds, 5th (Baltimore's), 3 6ths and a 7th round pick. That is pretty much it for tradeable assets. I know people want to trade the QB, but I just don't think we could get anything for him with how much he is making. As for other positions people might want to trade, Cook, Thielen and Smith do not have significant trade value and would not save us significant cap if traded. You trade those 3 and it saves about 14 million in cap total, creating 3 new holes to fill in the process, and not getting near the return some think we would get. Thielen might get us a 3rd, but I don't know if Cook or Smith have any trade value at all on their current deals. Not worth trading. Cuttable Assets: Michael Pierce Cutting Pierce saves the Vikings 6.5 million, and unlike some other cut candidates, there is actually someone on the team who could take his spot without creating another hole. Watts and Tomlinson isn't a big step down from Pierce and Tomlinson, and Watts does not have the injury concerns Pierce has. New Cap: 9.5 Million That is pretty much it. I have already talked about Cook, Smith and Thielen not really saving us a lot if cut and just creating more holes and there really isn't significant cap to be save by cutting anyone else. Borrow from 2023: Kirk Cousins Add 20 million void year to Kirk's current deal, converting salary to signing bonus. The Vikings would still have 80 million in 2023 and at that point cutting Smith, Cook and Thielen would save significant cap. No brainer, but if void years are upsetting to you for some reason, we could also convert some of O'Neil's and Kendricks' salary to signing bonus and accomplish virtually the same thing that way. New Cap: 29.5 million Filling the holes: At this point the Vikings are looking to improve both DE spots, 2 CBs spots, safety, LBer, RG, Center, TE2, Kicker and Punter. Lots of holes, but now we have more assets to fill them. DE This position is by far the biggest hole on the team with Hunter leaving via trade and DJ Wonnum being the worst starting pass rushing DE in football in 2021. The Vikings can't possibly count on two rookies filling both spots on the line, so we need to spend some of our cap on a free agent here. Looking at available free agents, Emmanual Ogbah is still relatively young and shouldn't break the bank. 3 years, 45 million with most of the cap hit coming in the final two years. Available cap: 22 million The other DE spot I would look to draft DE with the 12th overall pick. George Karlaftis is a guy who I am penciling in for now, something that could change depending on who the Vikings hire as HC and who rises and falls at the combine. CB I would like the Vikings to bring back Patrick Peterson on a 3 year, 21 million dollar deal. Like Ogbah's deal, most of the salary will count towards the end of the contract. Available cap: 18 million That would leave a CB spot still open, and Coby Bryant would be my pick in the 2nd round. Good size, and good in run support, I think he would compete to start day 1. LB Devin Loyd would be a great pickup with the Vikings' 2nd 1st round pick. A day one starter who could be what we all hoped Barr would become. RG Laken Tomlinson is a name that I have heard thrown around on here and if he can make the transition to RG, could be a good value in free agency. Assuming he had a similar year next year as he did this year, it would cut the number of pressures on the QB by 20 by replacing Udoh's 48 with his 28 pressures given up. 4 years, 40 million. Available cap: 10 million Center I would probably just roll out Bradbury again in 2022 and maybe spend one of the 3rds on a guy to compete with him in camp. Safety I am okay with going into camp with Bynum as the presumptive starter. The Vikings will need to spend at least one pick on depth here, but nothing higher than a 3rd. Kicker and Punter I don't care. 4-6 million on a couple of free agents. TE2 Conklin is going to get 8 million at least in free agency, and that just isn't worth it to me. He is okay, and there is a good chance Smith Jr is never as productive as he was this year, but it isn't like he is Darren Waller out there. I would look to draft a TE2. The rest of the cap I would spend on depth, or keep for an emergency, but that is pretty much it. Offensively we are still limited by our QB, but have improved the Oline. Defensively the Vikings are at least as good as last year from a talent standpoint, with the potential to improve if the rookies really work out. Not a SB team, but until we solve the QB spot, that is pretty much a given. What do you all think? Anything you would change? Any holes I didn't mention? I am not super invested in either the GM or HC hunt as I do not feel qualified to judge either of those positions and have to just trust ownership to make a good decision. As much as we fans |
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We've had some debate on Kirk Cousins and the ability to come from behind in 4th quarter comeback situations. I finished the chart provided by MN Researcher (source here) and here are my results. Enjoy! Click here to read article Rules
Top 5 QBs at making comebacks:  We have 4 of the best QBs on the list, and Josh Allen... he's proved himself as a franchise QB this season and has been able to take the Bills on many comebacks. Bottom 5 QBs at making comebacks:  Yup, there's Kirk tied for the 3rd worst at making comebacks. Under my new criteria, Kirk gets credit for the 4th quarter comeback against the Packers in 2018 where Carlson missed 3 FGs. Outside of that, Kirk has been unable to bring this team back. So has Matt Ryan, who has suffered through some bad defenses, but he's also guilty of failing to take advantage when they jump out to big leads, but end up blowing the game. Darnold, Winston, and Jones are just sucky QBs who surprisingly are not good at making comebacks. You might wonder how often QBs have to attempt comebacks. Let's see who has the luxury of not having to, and which QBs always have to. Top 5 QBs who Always Have to Make Comebacks  Wow, those are some high numbers! Dalton, Tannehill, and Keenum basically have to make comebacks every single week. That's no surprise for Andy or Case, but Tannehill has been a part of a really good Titans team, yet he's always needed to come back. Minshew has been backed by a horrible Jags defense, but Foles has had the Eagles' and Bears' defenses, yet I'd argue it's his poor ability to score points that puts him behind all the time. Top 5 QBs who Never Have to Make Comebacks  Most of these teams have good defenses, but Mahomes is in another class of his own, and has had no need to make comebacks. Brady being high on this list is no surprise. Finally, here's the entire list:  Any thoughts? We've had some debate on Kirk Cousins and the ability to come from behind in 4th quarter comeback situations. I finished the chart provided by MN Researcher ( |
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It was five years ago today that Teddy Bridgewater was terribly (and a bit mysteriously) injured in practice. Fortunately for him, it did not end his career. But its effect on the Vikings’ franchise: Fatal. IMO this triggered a chain of events that effectively killed the championship hopes of the Spielman/Zimmer-era Minnesota Vikings. Even now, it shows why this team is run by a GM and coach who cannot field a championship team. Click here to read article Bridgewater’s injury was only the first cut that brought the Vikings low. Rick Spielman waited all of 4 days to assess the injury and its impact before trading for Sam Bradford, who had been discarded by both the Rams and now by the Eagles. “Et tu, Bradford?” We were 8-8 in 2016 with Bradford throwing 20 TDs and only 5 INTs, and I doubt Teddy would have performed better or won any more games - possibly less. The team self-destructed after a 5-0 start. Due to the Bradford trade, we lost our #1 pick in 2017, which could have been a good player, even at #14. But Spielman’s decision to trade for Bradford was ultimately much worse. After Bridgewater was hurt, we could have "taken our lumps" and let Shaun Hill play out the season. So we finish 6-10 or 7-9…did 8-8 feel that much better? Then, 6 months after his injury (instead of 4 damn days!) they could look at Teddy's condition. If they doubted he could come back, well...with the 10th pick in the 2017 draft, we could choose between Patrick Mahomes and DeShaun Watson. Hmmm. Hindsight? Of course. But I’m just a fan. An NFL professional should have looked at the history of making such trades before doing it. If I owned the Vikings when Spielman proposed trading for Bradford, I would have asked how often teams do this to replace an injured starter just before or during the season, and whether it usually worked. Some evidence or proven precedent - isn't that what any rational manager (or a scientist in his lab on Krypton) should expect? There were some recent examples for Spielman showing when a team did not do such a desperate trade for someone else's castoff. When Brady was hurt in 2008, did the Patriots urgently trade for Derek Anderson? No. Did the Colts panic in 2011 when Manning was hurt and trade their next #1 pick for Kyle Orton? Of course not. But it has happened, so I searched for NFL trades for a starter-level QB that happened after a team held training camp and decided (for injury or any reason) that they desperately needed a replacement QB.
The first observation from this list: it has happened very rarely – which should make anyone ask, “Why do most NFL GMs think a desperation QB trade is a bad idea?” That question is answered by the second observation: It has NEVER worked for the team acquiring a quick-fix QB. The Wilfs apparently did not ask Spielman for a history of these bad trades. If they did, they didn’t ask, “Why do you think you’re smarter than the entire rest of this league?” But Spielman and Zimmer don’t think they are smarter: they panicked when Bridgewater was hurt. They apparently thought, "We don't have time to see if Teddy's alright and we don't have time to develop a new QB!! We barely have this defense hanging together and don’t feel confident it will last!! We won’t be able to rebuild it for a new draft pick quarterback!!” Given the panic move for Bradford, it's tempting to think they were on the hot seat already - but they survived the 8-8 season in 2016 that “featured” an embarrassing collapse that would have ended most coaching regimes. It was certainly as bad as the 2010 season that led to the Wilfs firing Brad Childress; in one game, DBs decided to ignore Zimmer’s coverage scheme! Didn’t this qualify as “losing the locker room”? But Spielman and Zimmer clearly had the Wilfs' confidence - or blithe disinterest. Bradford’s history of infinite knee surgeries quickly ended his playing time, to the surprise of no one except Rick Spielman. But Spielman effectively took the same approach (panic and overpay for a mediocre quarterback drafted and developed by someone else who no longer wants him) by paying ANYTHING demanded by Kirk Cousins. Then he did it again in 2020 with the ludicrous Cousins extension. I’m not actually saying that Bridgewater’s injury killed the Vikings, or even the Bradford trade. We’re dead because we have a GM who doesn’t trust himself to choose a quarterback and/or find a HC able to develop one. (And the Mond pick was just smoke, folks.) When Spielman brought the inane Bradford trade to the Wilf, they should have known, and been done with this GM and coach within a year of that move. They had every opportunity at the end of 2016 but let it slide. I fear they are asleep at the wheel, watching the massive profits of a mediocre NFL franchise accrue in their bank accounts. Wilf family, Rick Spielman is sending a message to you in big block letters, and it reads: I WILL PISS AWAY RESOURCES ON THE MOST MEDIOCRE OF VETERAN QUARTERBACKS BECAUSE IT'S CLEAR EVEN TO ME THAT I CANNOT SELECT AND DEVELOP THEM MYSELF!! STOP ME BEFORE I GIVE THE SAINTS 2 FIRST-ROUNDERS FOR JAMEIS WINSTON!! Like all of us, I want to see a Vikings Super Bowl championship in my lifetime. But I think it’s going to take a hurricane flooding Minneapolis and causing such nationwide sympathy that the league decides to fix a season to throw us a bone – because Spielman and Zimmer will never earn a championship. It was five years ago today that Teddy Bridgewater was terribly (and a bit mysteriously) injured in practice. Fortunately for him, it did not end his career. But its effect on the Vikings’ franchise: |
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I find that the simple yards/TDs/interceptions ratio to be lacking in many ways. These stats can be easily abused, and without any proper context, what are they actually telling us? QBs these days are consistently throwing for 300 to 400 yards a game, but it isn't leading to winning games. I'd like to take a dive into removing useless stats from Vikings QBs, and there's one easy way to do this: completely remove garbage time stats. Click here to read article Garbage time is usually defined as as the last five minutes of the fourth quarter, when a team is down multiple scores (9 or more points). I also qualify garbage time as facing prevent defense, when defenders do not attempt to stop passes from being completed so that the clock can keep running. This is the root of why garbage time stats simply don’t matter – why give credit to a QB and his receivers for completing passes that the defense willingly allows, when you’re going to lose the game anyways? I will also extend it to the last 8 minutes when down by 17 or more. 4th quarter if down by 25 or more. I will go through every game from 2015 to 2019 and see how many passes / yards / catches are made in garbage time. (GT = Garbage Time, NGT = non-Garbage Time) 2015 Teddy in GT: 16/27 136/0/1 (3 games) 2015 Teddy not in GT: 293/444 3241/14/8 (includes playoffs) 2015 GT Passer Rating: 57.02 2015 NGT PR: 90.49 -- 2016 Bradford in GT: 51/69 467/4/0 (4 games) 2016 Bradford in non-GT: 344/483 3410/16/5 2016 GT PR: 111.2 2016 NGT PR: 97.58 -- 2017 Keenum in GT: 14/24 94/0/1 (2 games, including playoffs) 2017 Keenum in non-GT: 4052/24/9 (includes playoffs) 2017 GT PR: 49.65 2017 NGT PR: 96.52 -- 2018 Cousins in GT: 58/80 550/4/2 (6 games) 2018 Cousins in NGT: 367/526 3748/26/11 2018 GT PR: 97.4 2018 NGT PR: 97.68 -- 2019 Cousins in GT: 20/30 165/0/0 (3 games) 2019 Cousins in NGT: 327/474 3852/28/7 (includes playoffs) 2019 GT PR: 80.56 2019 NGT PR: 106.97 -- Receiving Numbers in Garbage Time For the heck of it, I decided to tally up who was benefiting from garbage time on the receiving end. Let's see who sticks out: (Yard % is garbage time yards divided by total yards).  ** My conclusions I found it very surprising that 3 of the 5 years we saw a decrease in garbage time play! 2015 Bridgewater, 2017 Keenum, and 2019 Cousins all had their play decrease when facing prevent defenses. I don't think this is statically significant - their sample sizes are rather small and would likely be improved if they threw as many passes as the other two. It's certainly noteworthy, but in the end I don't think it tells us very much. Meanwhile, let's talk about 2016 Bradford and 2018 Cousins - both of them had some significant stat-stuffing in garbage time. Bradford saw a +14 boost in passer rating once the game entered garbage time, and only threw 16 TDs in non-garbage time (in 15 starts). 2018 Cousins was less so, as his passer rating was about even between GT and non-GT. His stats without garbage time are more impressive than Bradford's, sporting 10 more TDs (and played in 1 more game). I can conclude that 2016 Bradford is the only QB on this list whose numbers inflate how well he actually played, while 2018 Cousins’ GT stats were an extension of his normal play. I didn’t find all that much for receiving in garbage time. Outside of the bizarre usage of Matt Asiata and C. J. Ham as checkdown options in garbage time, there wasn’t much to see here. Some years garbage time was given to some backup receivers (Patterson is 2016 and the whole 2019 squad). I also noticed two omissions – Dalvin Cook rarely was used in garbage time, though a fair chunk of that was because he can’t stay healthy. Even Laquon Treadwell couldn’t do anything in GT, failing to crack any of these lists with just 7 career catches in GT. TL;DR: 2015 Bridgewater, 2017 Keenum, and 2019 Cousins played worse in GT than during real game action. 2018 Cousins was about the same in GT and padded his stats with an extra 550 yards and 4 TDs. 2016 Bradford was the only better player in GT and padded his totals with 467 yards and 4 TDs. Thanks for reading my article - Any thoughts on my little study? Did any of the results surprise you? What are your opinions on Garbage Time?I find that the simple yards/TDs/interceptions ratio to be lacking in many ways. These stats can be easily abused, and without any proper context, what are they actually telling us? QBs these days |
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Last year I did an analysis of 1st round WRs to see what we could learn. The main takeaway was that WRs either show us their talent right out of the gate or they never show it. Click here to read article So I decided to take a look at 1st round offensive linemen to see if there are any trends, how they help (or hinder) their teams in year one, or any other interesting statistical quirks that might appear. This study is a little different from last year, it has to be, because we don't have reception percentage or touchdowns to compare individuals, so how do we compare them? The only stats site that comprehensively grades offensive linemen is PFF. Now before you start throwing things at your computer, TV or the cat, I am not a complete worshiper of PFF or analytics in general, but it does have it's place and every team uses analytics to some degree, and PFF at least compares each player using the same metrics, so that's all we got. How to interpret the grades: 100-90: Elite 89-85: Pro Bowl Caliber 84-70: Starter Quality 69-60: Backup Caliber 59-0: Replaceable
2011: Pouncey and Castonzo earnt starter quality grades, although Castonzo only played 154 snaps. Four players earnt backup grades, but with Carimi playing less than 100 snaps it's not worth much. The other two graded out as replaceable though Sherod has a small sample size. Overall if we use a 65.0 grade as a cutoff point, Pouncey and Smith were the only two players to offer something good to their team as a rookie while Smith and Castonzo were above average. So 4 out of 8 players contributed. (50%) 2012: This was a pretty good crop of 1st round rookies. Three above 75 although Reiff only playing 326 snaps is a limited sample size by PFF standards. DeCastro only played 136 snaps and graded poorly. 3 out of 4 for this class. (75%) 2013: Overall a good class with one player grading in the 80s and four in the 70s. Fluker graded out just below 70 and certainly had a decent rookie year while Cooper was lost in the pre season to a broken leg, so we won't count him. 6 out of 8. (75%) 2014: Martin had an outstanding rookie year and Lewan was also very solid. The others were below average and missed our cutoff point. 2 out of 5. (40%) 2015: Only one player (Scherff) graded above 70. Tomlinson was solid while Ogbuehi's sample size of 66 snaps won't count for much in this analysis. 2 out of 6 (33%) 2016: This was a good class. Decker and Conklin lead the group both scoring in the 80s. Stanley and Kelly hit the 70s while Tunsil was decent although his 64.3 just misses the cutoff point. It seems like an injustice to only have a 57% grade, if you include Tunsil it jumps to 71%, but a cutoff is a cutoff and I don't want to mess up the final analysis. 4 out of 7. (57%) 2017: A very small sample size with only two linemen taken in the first round. They were both significant contributors though, so a perfect result. 2 out of 2. (100%) 2018: This was expected to be a great OL class, with Nelson and McGlinchey highly thought of in the pre draft process. While things don't always work out with player projections the two Notre Dame alums lived up to expectations. Ragnow was solid enough while Wynn tore an ACL and missed the season so he won't count here. Billy Price and Kolton Miller were real disappointments. 3 out of 5. (60%) 2019: This was a very underwhelming class, with only Lindstrom hitting a serviceable grade. Williams suffered a shoulder injury in OTAs that required surgery and missed the season. 1 out of 5. (20%) 2020: Last years class was a very mixed bag. Both Wirfs and Becton were really good, Thomas and Wills were underwhelming as top 10 picks, Jackson and Ruiz graded below replacement level, and Wilson decided to go off on some tangent to La La land. 2 out of 7. (29%) So what do we learn from all of this? It's already well established that drafting is difficult. There is no sure fire guaranteed can't miss prospect. Drafting a top 10 prospect isn't a sure fire thing, as 7 out of 17 guys in this study were underwhelming. Overall, if we take an average from the last 10 years, 41.3% of our prospects graded out above 70 which is starter level by PFF metrics. If we lower the threshold to use 65 as a pass mark, then the number increases to 55.3% which is serviceable by rookie standards. So in summary, you have a slightly above 4/10 chance of landing a player who will play at about starter level in his rookie year, and a 50/50 chance that your guy will be average. It should also be remembered that rookie performance is not an indicator of future level of play. Some guys play better with more experience, some fall off a cliff, and others show marginal improvement form below average to average, while some are elite out of the box and maintain that for an entire career.Last year I did an analysis of 1st round WRs to see what we could learn. The main takeaway was that WRs either show us their talent right out of the gate or they never show it. So I |
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Welcome one and all to my sixth annual Guide to the Offseason Article! In previous years in this article, I’ve stated my plans on how I would make the Vikings a Super Bowl contender. Every year I projected aggressive free agent signings and pushed for spending the big bucks to re-sign key free agents while pressing up against the salary cap. This year will be different, however. It is time… Click here to read article TO BLOW IT UP!!!!  This is the first time I’ll be blowing up the roster in any of my offseason guides, so we’re going to go all the way here. This is going to be a full rebuild – this roster is getting blown down to the studs! The goal will be to move veteran players off the roster and only retain players who will be useful to contend in the future. I’m going to make no attempts to field a competitive roster in 2021. This will be written under the assumption that Spielman and Zimmer would be fired and a brand new coaching staff would be installed. We are currently projected to have a $181M salary cap, which turns out to be $185.4M with the cap leftovers from 2020. That puts us at -$8.2M, which is less than ideal. Once I’m done with this roster, there will be room, trust me! Current Roster Setup:  Releases / Cuts TE Kyle Rudolph (saves $5.1M, leaves $4.3M of dead cap) The Rudolph extension was a puzzling one from Day 1, as Irv Smith Jr. was drafted to be his replacement. Making him as the 6th highest paid TE in the league was even more puzzling. Cousins didn’t target Rudolph close to as much as previous Viking QBs had before, and that trend didn’t change in 2019 or 2020. Smith Jr. outplayed him, and even Tyler Conklin made more of an impact once Rudy got hurt. There is no reason to retain Rudolph with the two aforementioned TEs still on their rookie deals. This was a blatant waste of money from the get-go. DT Shamar Stephen (Saves $3.75M, leaves $1.33M of dead cap) Another baffling move from the 2019 offseason, Stephen was brought back into the Vikings’ system after spending a year in Seattle and was handed the 3 technique job despite not being able to rush the passer whatsoever. To nobody’s surprise, he flunked hard, and was then given the nose tackle job in 2020. He wasn’t a horrible run stuffer, but he was still below-average and also brought zero pass rushing ability. Stephen is a backup NT at best and certainly doesn’t deserve being paid over $5M in 2021. K Dan Bailey (Saves $1.7M, leaves $2.1M of dead cap) Right when the Vikings thought they had fixed Bailey following a very strong 2019 season, he immediately reversed back to his 2017/18 self and began to melt down. Even after he was spared the chopping block following the atrocious Tampa game, he still faltered more down the stretch. This team handles special teams terribly, and at this point I don’t know what they can do to fix their curious ailment. The one move I can recommend strongly is cutting Bailey ASAP. P Britton Colquitt (Saves $1.78M, leaves $1.4M of dead cap) With the rest of the special teams units self-destructing, Colquitt had a very poor season that went under-the-radar. While the net punt yardage was bad because mostly because of the punt coverage, Colquitt finished in the lower half for punting distance and also gave too many chances for returns. PFF ranked him as the 2nd worst punter in 2020. There is no need for a mediocre punter who’s turning 36 on my rebuild. G Dru Samia (Saves $665K, leaves $368K of dead cap) He will likely be a cut at the end of the 2021 preseason, but I’d prefer to get his contract off the books now. Samia’s play at right guard was simply abysmal. In 4 starts he gave up as many sacks and hits (3 and 4) as RT O’Neill did on the whole year, plus another 14 pressures. He even drew 4 penalties in the Seattle game. Spielman traded up for this guy in the 4th round of the 2019 draft… yikes, 2019 was full of bad decisions. DE Jalyn Holmes (Saves $920K, leaves $183K of dead cap) Holmes went from likely not making the team to becoming a starting DE once Ngakoue was traded, and he flopped really hard. Providing zero sacks and suboptimal run defense, Holmes is a practice squad-caliber player. Like Samia, he’s another failed 4th round pick. Current cap room: $5.72M Re-signing Our Free Agents DE Ifeadi Odenigbo (RFA) – 2nd round tender of $3.38M It was a weird year for Ifeadi, as he went from the likely #2 DE to Hunter, to #3 upon the Ngakoue trade, and then rose to #1 after Hunter’s injury and Ngakoue’s trade. He completely failed to live up to his 7 sack 2019 season, only posting 3.5, but he was still providing pressures at a decent rate. He’s with $3.38M as a part-time rotational rusher, and I think his numbers will improve with Hunter’s return, along with the removal of deadbeat D-linemen who did nothing to assist him. C Brett Jones – 1 year, $1M Constantly being shoved between the active roster and the practice squad, Jones managed to start 2 games at RG and wasn’t terrible. He’s a fine backup center/guard who should sign at the veteran minimum. Players Being Let Go Usually I re-sign many players, but since I’m committing to the rebuild and there aren’t many key players leaving in free agency, I see little reason to retain these guys. My rationale on them: FS Anthony Harris He was expected to leave in free agency in 2020, but the Vikings surprisingly franchise-tagged him. This move didn’t pan out, as he regressed into an above average safety after having elite 2018 and 2019 seasons. Harris cost himself some money by having a decent year, and he’ll be turning 30 already. It’s a disappointing end for a former UDFA who came out of nowhere and became the NFL’s best free safety for a little while. OLB Eric Wilson Wilson got to be a full-time starter for the first time in his career when Barr went down, and he did well. He proved to be a playmaker, providing 3 picks, 3 sacks, 1 FF, and 122 combined tackles. He’s a speedy LB who was able to hang with many HBs/TEs in coverage. However, he’s a fairly big liability in the run stopping department, and his small frame is not build to go up against linemen. This firmly puts him in a coverage LB niche, which is a role that will get him paid, but it’s not one I’m looking to fill. He’s not a true replacement to Barr, but if used right he will be a nice weapon for someone else’s defense to use. OLB Todd Davis Freshly cut from Denver after 4 years of starting as an interior LB, Davis landed with the Vikings and started 6 games. He was an average run stopper, which is something this team lacks, but he’s also a very poor cover guy. He was available for a minimum deal for this reason, and a 29 year old run-stopping only LB isn’t much of a commodity these days. T Rashod Hill Hill only ended up starting Week 17 due to Reiff catching COVID, but whenever he checked into the lineup, he played well. He’s seemingly come a ways since he bungled the RT job at the start of the 2018 season. He hit free agency last year and received little attention, but perhaps he’ll get more bites this offseason. G Dakota Dozier The Vikings couldn’t get rid of Dozier quickly enough. He was terrible week in and out, ranking as PFF’s worst guard (who played enough snaps, else Samia would have won that title). He gave up a whopping 46 pressures, 6 sacks, 9 QB hits, and 9 penalties. How much longer can the Vikings ignore the guard situation?! HB Ameer Abdullah A middling 3rd down HB, Abdullah was the primary kick returner once Osborn got benched, and took 15 kicks for a paltry 23.5 average return. He’ll be turning 28, and his roster spot could be well-used elsewhere on this roster. QB Sean Mannion He’s one of the worst backup QBs in the NFL and provides virtually no upside. Next! MLB Hardy Nickerson The former Bengal LB was a waiver wire pickup and ended up catching a lucky interception and even generated 2 forced fumbles (1 on special teams). He’s not worth rostering again. SS George Iloka Replacing Harrison Smith in the 2nd half of the Houston game due to Harry’s mid-game suspension, Iloka was torn apart by DeShaun Watson and gave up tons of yardage in coverage. He wasn’t rostered in 2019, and we found out why. He even tore his ACL in a practice mid-season. Iloka was clearly past his prime, but Zimmer can’t resist rostering mediocre veterans that played in his system before. DT Jaleel Johnson I liked the selection of Johnson in the 4th round of the 2017 draft, but his best play came in the preseason. He was plugged into the 3 technique job in 2020 and graded out as PFF’s worst starting DL in the entire NFL. He provided no pass rush and was consistently pushed back in run support. He’ll be probably be a practice squadee at best. Yet another wasted 4th round pick. HB Mike Boone (RFA) Boone has looked great whenever he’s gotten the chance to touch the ball, but those opportunities come very rarely. He’s averaged 5.3 YPC and is a dynamic threat as a receiver, too. He even ran for 148 yards on Chicago’s defense with the Vikings’ backup offense in (he did also have a bad fumble and caused an interception). With Cook extended and Mattison drafted, I can’t justify bringing Boone back. I hope another team will use him properly. WR Chad Beebe (RFA) The Vikings’ starting slot receiver, Beebe was given a small role (314 snaps) and flopped. He produced a 20/201/2 line, which was mostly buoyed by a big game against Carolina’s horrendous secondary (7/63/1). He has a hard time getting open and did a poor job of adding yards after the catch. He’s also a terrible punt returner, with 5 fumbles through 17 games from 2019-20. Beebe isn’t a rosterable player, but I guess the Vikings just fell in love with his 2018 preseason tape. Trades Vikings send QB Kirk Cousins to the 49ers for their 2nd and 4th round picks. It’s happening! There was a rumor floating around that this was San Fran’s asking price for Cousins, and I’d pounce all over it. Cousins is a fine, above average QB, but he was one of the primary reasons why this team started 1-5 and it became clear that he need to heavily rely on the running game to get him to play better. Owed $76M over 2021-22, he’s simply not worth that gargantuan amount, and it would be great to save $56M of that by trading him. This move leaves $20M of dead cap, but frees up $11M this year and a whopping $45M next year. Kirk can reunite with Kyle Shanahan and provide something that Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t bring – durability. They’ll pay him $21M in 2021 and $35M (100% guaranteed) in 2022. Vikings send OLB Anthony Barr to the Broncos for their 6th round pick (designated as a post June 1st trade) The Vikings owe Barr a ridiculous $15M in 2021 despite mainly being used as a run-stuffing OLB, plus he’s coming off a major injury. With this roster under new management, I can salvage $12.5M of cap space from his deal and take a $2.6M hit this year and a $5.2M hit next year as penalties. Meanwhile the Broncos can take him on for a more affordable $12.3M and work on moving him to a pass rushing OLB, with Von Miller likely to be suspended/cut. Vikings send LT Riley Reiff to the Chargers for their 5th round pick Reiff had a strong 2020, but he’s got one year left under contract and we aren’t looking to win in 2021. The Chargers’ LT situation was a disaster and they probably should have tried to trade for a LT, so perhaps they could acquire Reiff for a cheap price, though they’ll have to take on his $11.75M salary. The Vikings only lose $2.2M of dead cap to make this move, so it’s a no-brainer in this scenario. Usually a LT like him would command more, the Vikings could have moved Reiff at multiple points in 2020, but found no takers. Vikings send SS Harrison Smith to the Browns for the 4th round pick and SS Sheldrick Redwine With one year left on Smith’s deal, it’s likely he’s either extended or traded. Since I’m going the way of the rebuild, this means I must sadly trade one of my favorite players and cash in that $10.25M of his salary. Smith should command a light return, and here I have the Vikings getting a 3rd year safety who hasn’t gotten a chance to play much in Cleveland since being drafted in the 4th round. Cap Room: $46.21M And just like that, the roster has been gutted and we have money to spend! I will going after younger players that have upside for the future, but they will have some obvious red flags. There are so many holes in this roster that it will be impossible to plug them all. Free Agency Sign LG Matt Feiler to a 4 year, $46M deal It goes without saying the Vikings need to find guard help, and I’ll willing to make my only big move to fill this spot on the line. PFF on Feiler: “Feiler spent 2019 at right tackle and produced the fifth-best pass-block grade at that alignment then kicked to left guard for 2020 where he ranked 12th in pass-block grade.” He should be a massive upgrade in pass protection and will be a building block for the offense in this new rebuild. Here is how I would structure the deal:  Sign CB Mike Hilton to a 3 year, $13M Poaching another player off the Steelers’ roster, Hilton probably deserves more money than this, but nickel CBs inexplicably make tiny salaries compared to their peers. Hilton is a decent coverage corner, but specializes in rushing the passer and making plays. Over his four years as a nickel, he’s amassed 7 picks, 9.5 sacks, 23 QB hits, and 30 TFL (tackles for loss). The Vikings could use a veteran CB to complement Dantzler and Gladney, and Hilton would be a great fit. Sign FS Malik Hooker to a 1 year, $5M (with incentives) The Vikings need to add a high-upside option at safety, and Hooker has the potential to be that. He’s missed 28 games in the past 4 seasons, and he tore his Achilles’ tendon against the Vikings in Week 2. That sets him up for a one year deal that could lead to a bigger deal if he can prove himself. Hooker is a top-tier tackler and can cover receivers deep, so if he can take the field he’ll likely be worth his salary and then some. Sign QB C. J. Beathard to a 2 year, $5M deal I heavily considered signing Ryan Fitzpatrick, but that move would make a lot more sense if I were trying to make the playoffs in 2021. Since I’m not, I’ll go with a younger arm who played well for a short stretch in 2020. Beathard replaced Nick Mullens for the 49ers and had a 787/6/0 line in 2 starts, defeating the Cardinals and nearly upsetting the Seahawks. However, his play in 2017-18 was quite bad and he takes too many sacks, and consequently fumbled a lot. Still, he’s got a decent arm and can scramble around a bit, and he’s got more upside than many other backup candidates like Mannion. Sign WR Alex Erickson to a 2 year, $4.5M deal It’s time for the Vikings to improve their special teams. Erickson was one of the NFL’s better punt returners in 2020, with a high 10.1 yards per return. He’s capable of kick returns too. He’s a mediocre receiver, but he at least put up a 43/529/0 line in 6 starts in 2019, so he’s not as terrible as the Vikings’ backup WR options in 2020. Sign OLB Alex Anzalone to a 1 year, $3M deal With both Barr and Wilson hitting the road, I’ll need a placeholder to put next to Kendricks until I can find a true replacement. Anzalone is another injury-prone player who has potential, but the Saints never quite tapped into his full capabilities (in my opinion). He’s always been a quality coverage backer, but has never been an impact player in the run stopping department – he’s basically a cheaper Eric Wilson. Sign DE/DT DeMarcus Walker to a 1 year, $2.5M deal The Vikings badly need a 3 technique DT, but their options are limited and expensive. Instead, I’ll offer a cheap deal to Walker, a former second round pick who never broke out as a starter for the Broncos. He played 3-4 DE, but at 6’4” 280 lbs he could transition to DT without too many problems. He mustered 8.5 sacks the past two years playing in a rotation, and perhaps he could prove to be a decent interior pass rusher. He’s not going to be a long term solution, but perhaps he can stick as a key rotational piece. Sign K Eddy Pineiro to a 1 year, $850K deal Pineiro had a decent season as the Bears’ kicker in 2019, hitting 23/28 FGs and 27/29 XPs. He was expected to get the job back in 2020, but suffered a groin injury and he spent the whole year on the IR. Veteran Cairo Santos usurped him and had a fantastic season, making Pineiro expendable. I will bring in at least one more kicker to compete with him, but as long as he’s healthy (he also missed 2018 due to an injury), I will be somewhat comfortable with him as my kicker. Cap Room: $18.4M 2021 NFL Draft As always, it is still very early in the draft process for me. There are a ton of different routes to go here, as I’ve amassed a whopping 16 draft picks, even more than last year’s record of 15 draft picks. At the moment, here’s which kinds of picks I have: 1 of: 1st, 2nd, 7th 2 of: 3rd, 5th 3 of: 6th 5 of: 4th That’s a lot of 4th rounders. Now, let’s make some moves and spend these draft picks! Trade! Falcons send pick 1-4 for Vikings’ 1st, 2nd (SF), 4th (SF), 5th (LAC), and a 2022 4th. Pick 1-4: QB Justin Fields The Vikings land their QB of the future and their cornerstone to build around. Fields boasts a nearly complete toolset with a strong arm, top-notch athleticism, and high accuracy. He has a ways to go to develop his pocket prescence and learning how to handle blitzes, but in the hands of a great offensive coordinator/head coach, he could be molded into a top tier QB. Getting that guy on a rookie deal will carve a path to Super Bowl contention if everything goes right, and I’ll willing to take that chance. Pick 3-78: T/G James Hudson Spending more picks on offensive lineman is a must. Under this plan I would prepare Ezra Cleveland to play LT (or at least, figure out if he can handle it), and I would need someone to take his spot at RG. There currently aren’t many fits at guard who will be available at this point in the draft, so I will take a tackle and see if I can convert him to guard. Hudson fits in with the Vikings’ zone-blocking scheme, so for now he will be the pick. Trade! Bears send pick 3-83 for Vikings’4th, 5th, and 6th (DEN). Pick 3-83: DE Patrick Jones II With QB and the O-line addressed so far, the D-line badly needs reinforcements. Jones is a classic 4-3 DE who is a quality pass rusher and holds his own in the ground game. I’m unsure if he will be available here, but he could slide if 3-4 teams see him as incompatible with their system. Pick 3-90: LB Dylan Moses With Barr and Wilson gone, a successor needs to be groomed. Moses is a speedy LB who is a strong tackler, but had an uneven final year at Alabama and needs to develop his ability to anticipate the offense’s plays. He may start out as the 3rd LB. Pick 4-115: WR Shi Smith The Vikings could stand to improve their WR room and be able to field 3 WRs more often. Smith is a speedy slot receiver with strong hands who would instantly be a massive upgrade from what Chad Beebe brought. Pick 4-124: FS Caden Sterns The roster is rather barren at safety, and taking Sterns would add a prospect who could start in 2022. Sterns profiles as a strong coverage safety usually best left deep down the field, as he struggles with tackling and taking the right angles to tackle ball-carriers. Pick 4-comp: CB Thomas Graham Jr. More depth at CB is needed with Hughes’ inability to stay on the field. Graham Jr. picked off 7 passes in 3 years, and is a very strong tackler. His main issue is his lack of speed, which led to QBs picking on him at times. He may be stuck as a nickel CB or could transition to safety. Pick 5-151: DT Khyiris Tonga A strong run defender, Tonga was a force in the run-stopping game at BYU and had a nose for the ball. He doesn’t offer a lot in the pass rushing department outside of knocking passes down, but we need a better back to Michael Pierce in case anything happens to him again. Tonga has a very similar skillset to Pierce and could eventually take over his spot as a starting nose tackle. Pick 6-174: G Tristen Hoge Taking shots on offensive linemen in the late rounds works for other teams, so perhaps if the Vikings revamped the offensive coaching room, they could start hitting on these picks every once in a while. Pick 6-comp: TE Nick Eubanks Eubanks didn’t get used much at Michigan, but was a strong blocker, which is something this roster could use since Smith Jr. and Conklin are receivers first and blockers second. Pick 7-204: HB Jah-Maine Martin I’d be taking shots at late round HBs more often since they pan out more than other positions this late in the draft. Martin was productive at a small college, but didn’t get to play in 2020. UDFAs: K Chris Naggar and P Pressley Harvin III I’d be willing to shell out some UDFA money for a new punter and competition at kicker. Harvin III was one of the best punters in the nation and could be drafted. Naggar had a decent senior year at SMU but that was his only year as a starter. Optional Extensions Extend Danielle Hunter If Hunter proves to be healthy and 100% for the 2021 season, I would entertain an extension for him. I would also consider a trade if his contract demands are excessive. Here is a potential fix; it may not be accurate to his demands, but I could not find any precedent on a DE who wanted a contract just 2 years into a recent extension.  In this scenario Hunter receives a $12.5M signing bonus up front, $57M is added to the $49.75M left on the current deal, and $43.8M of the deal is now 100% guaranteed (he originally had $0M guaranteed). Extend Brian O’Neill O’Neill is primed to hit free agency in 2022, but I’m not going to let that happen. Here is a reasonable deal he could sign:  I think O’Neill will garner more than what James and Collins got on their deals, but he shouldn’t reach the $14M a year that Jack Conklin got from Cleveland. $13.25M a per should suffice. Notes Committed Salary in 2022: Originally $180.2M, but now approximately $148M after factoring in new deals and rookie contracts. Also, we’re poised to roll over $7.6M into 2022, which will give us even more room. Assuming the salary cap is $200M or more in 2022, the Vikings will be in position to spend big in the 2022 offseason. Positions to fix in 2022: 3DT, LB, FS & SS, LT/C? DE? Why not trade Thielen and Kendricks? Good question. Thielen is on year 1 of his 4 year extension, and I’d like to keep him as the #2 WR to Jefferson and as a leader for the offense. He’s certainly moveable with only a $5.4M dead hit (0% of his salary is guaranteed, surprisingly), but last I heard over the 2020 trade deadline, only a 2nd round pick was offered for him. There’s plenty of time to trade him if we do want to take that route. Kendricks, on the other hand, had a restructure and would cost the Vikings $10M to move him. He only counts $12.5M on the cap in 2021, which he is absolutely worth. Linebackers usually don’t get traded and I don’t know if they’d get much of a return for him. I’d prefer to keep Kendricks around for the future, at least through the rest of the 3 years left on his deal. Depth Chart  Roster Financials:  Any thoughts? Sources Used: walterfootball.com/ www.spotrac.com www.overthecap.com thedraftnetwork.com/prospect-rankings www.profootballreference.com Welcome one and all to my sixth annual Guide to the Offseason Article! In previous years in this article, I’ve stated my plans on how I would make the Vikings a Super Bowl contender. Every year I |
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I looked back at the passing games of teams the Vikings faced last year, comparing what happens when we generated pressure versus when we didn't. Not surprisingly, in most games the pass defense was much better when the QB was pressured. Somewhat surprisingly, is just how terrible a good number of QBs were against us when pressured. Click here to read article Looking at the individual games in 2019, we see for the most part QBs struggled when pressured, especially backups and rookies:
That Giant's, Denver and 2nd Detroit games aren't typos. Jones, Allen and Blough were really that awful when the Dline applied pressure. I also took special pleasure in seeing just how bad Rodgers was when we pressured him. His game has regressed quite a bit, and I think his performance when pressured against good defenses is a big reason the Packers took Love. On the flip side, we see Matt Moore somehow torched our defense when pressured. He actually did much better when pressured than not, one of only 4 QBs we faced who accomplished that feat. I also didn't realize we sacked him 5 times in that game. It didn't appear to matter as he still found guys open quickly. I will have to watch that game back, but I wonder if Zimmer blitzed quite a bit in that game with the backup in, and it burned him? Regardless, we see that pressure, with the few exceptions of Wentz, Case, Moore, and Prescott (3 scrambling QBs and one with a horseshoe up his butt), shuts down opposing QBs in Zimmer's scheme. Much better than the average defense, with the league average passer rating against being 67.3. Looking at what happens when a QB threw it because they believed their receiver was open against us, we see a huge increase in passer rating, TDs, and yards:
A few things we can see from this. #1 The league average passer rating against is 100.13 when a QB is kept clean. That means the Vikings pass defense was just a little below average when they couldn't apply pressure. They were significantly better in YPA (7.9 league average versus 7.12), which tells us that the issue was the lack of picks. Zimmer doesn't teach his CBs to gamble, and I think we see it in this stat. #2 Every QB can do well when un-pressured, even backups and rookies. #3 Rivers and Jimmy G. couldn't figure out the Vikings coverage scheme. Both played poorly when they were pressured and when they were kept clean. It was a shame we couldn't stop the run against SF. To summarize all of this, Zimmer's D, like all defenses, relies on pressuring the QB to make bad decisions with the football. Whether that is through good coverage forcing a QB to hold the ball too long, or a good pass rush getting to the QB quickly, his defenses are elite when applying pressure. It kind of makes me wonder about the decision to not add another pass rusher to the team this off season, and makes Griffen leaving seem like the biggest loss. Hopefully someone steps up big as the RDE, or it is going to be a long year. I looked back at the passing games of teams the Vikings faced last year, comparing what happens when we generated pressure versus when we didn't. Not surprisingly, in most games the pass |
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This is the first in a two part series analysing the statistics of 1st round WRs and CBs.Statistics were obtained from Pro Football Reference. Click here to read article The aim is to get a gauge on what we might reasonably expect from Justin Jefferson and Jeff Gladney. We'll start with the WRs taken in the 1st round of the past 11 drafts,this gives a reasonable sample size of 40 players. As the table below shows,the average number of games started is 7.2 and the average number of TDs is 3.7 while the yards per game is 41. Many fans expect Jefferson to be able to produce at a high level right off the bat and pick up Stefon Diggs production level,however this is probably unrealistic.In his final season with the Vikings,Diggs scored 6 TDs to be equal first with Adam Theilen and Kyle Rudolph while averaging 75.3 yards per game. Jefferson would have to perform at well above the average of 1st round selections over the past 10 years.Indeed,only 1 player has exceeded 75 yards per game in their rookie year and only 7 players have exceeded 6 TDs. Given the issues of Covid 19 and the disruption to OTA's,it would be astounding if Jefferson in his rookie year was able to contribute the numbers Diggs produced. If Jefferson were able to produce league average numbers,I think this would be a solid rookie year and a good foundation to build on.
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Welcome to part 2 of this series,where we will focus on CBs taken in the 1st round to try and come up with an idea of what type of year Jeff Gladney may have. Click here to read article Trying to get a handle on the chart below,16 of the 36 players taken in the first round have started 9 games or less their rookie year,this includes the 3 Vikings. The average number of interceptions is 1.9 and the 3 Vikings CBs have 1 between them.As expected,the Viking corners are good tacklers,a trait that is demanded by current HC Mike Zimmer. Corner is one of the hardest positions for rookies to produce at a high level,and is largely dependent on how quickly a player can pick up the new scheme,some of which can be very complex compared to what the player has done at the college level. From a Vikings perspective,since arriving in 2014,HC Mike Zimmer has been cautious about throwing rookie corners on the field too early,so it will be interesting to see if this changes with three new starters required and very little time for the rookies to work with the coaching staff.
Welcome to part 2 of this series,where we will focus on CBs taken in the 1st round to try and come up with an idea of what type of year Jeff Gladney may have. Trying to get a handle on the chart |
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It seems to me that most NFL fans say that their team's CBs suck. In the modern NFL game, playing coverage is incredibly difficult, as fast WRs can blow by you, tall TEs can tower over you and get away with offensive pass interference, and the referees will be looking to throw penalty flags at you thanks to harsher coverage rules. From holding, illegal contact, and defensive pass interference, a cornerback must be a tough player without being too grabby. Click here to read article There also doesn't seem to be much of a consensus on the ranking of CBs - I'm sure you've see plenty of top 10s out there, but I'm more interested in ranking everyone and finding out how many truly good, average, and awful CBs there are. Let's take a dive into trying to quantify the performances of CBs. PlayerProfiler.com has recently become a favorite source of mine, as they are one of the primary tracker of coverage stats. For this article, I will be using Targets, Receptions Allowed, Yards Allowed, TDs Allowed, and Passes Broken Up. The targets and receptions are based off if the CB was the closest man to the play, or if it was clear he was assigned to the receiver. This means that these stats aren't perfect for obvious reasons. I had originally thought of combining this with some PFF stats, but I tossed their scores after seeing how little they matched up with PlayerProfiler. I have combined these stats into a single number that I will use to grade CBs. The CB Grade will rank a player from 0 to 10, with 10 being the best possible performance. Here is how the stat breaks down: 60% based of passer rating when thrown at 30% based on rate of playmaking (interception or pass defended) 10% based on how often QBs threw at a CB + a small boost for CBs who played more snaps PlayerProfiler's stats allowed me to calculate a QB's passer rating when throwing at a CB, and is the backbone of these ratings. I also wanted to reward CBs who deflected passes away more often and give them an extra boost from making an interception, so the Playmaking score will do just that. I also gave a small boost to CBs that QBs tended to avoid, since the Passer Rating does not give a boost to CBs who QBs won't dare to throw at. Finally, I put in a small boost for the number of snaps a CB played so that small sample size CBs would not float to the top due to not getting tested enough. I figure that CBs who don't play all the snaps and rotate in are fresher and likely play better when they can take more breaks, unlike a full-time CB who will rarely come off the field. After going through 95 CBs and recording their stats into my spreadsheet, the final numbers ranged from 9.07 to 1.7. The average score was 4.46. Here's a quick tier system for determining what a grade means: (Number of players per tier in parenthesis) 9+ HOF Level (1) 7.5 -> 9 Elite (2) 6 -> 7.5 Very good (8) 4.8 -> 6 Above Average (26) 4.2 -> 4.8 Average (17) 3 -> 4.2 Below Average (25) 1.5 -> 3 Very bad (16) 1.5- Beyond Abysmal (0) The replacement level ended up being 3.04. For those unfamiliar with this concept, this means that if you pulled a random backup or free agent CB off the street, you would get about a 3.04 level of play from them. This number was calculated by subtracting the average by a single standard deviation (1.42). First, let's take a look at how the Vikings in 2019 ended up on this list. Here's an image from my spreadsheet:  #49 - Mike Hughes 4.41 The good news is that the one CB who is still left with the team played the best according to my metrics. The bad news is that our CB group was clearly not good when their best player nabbed a slightly below average score. Hughes allowed 58% of passes that came his way to be completed for just 11.56 yards per catch (both below average numbers, in a good way). His playmaking score was easily the highest on the team, though that's more of an indictment on the rest of the guys on this team. The only truly negative stat he has here is that teams threw at him every 5 snaps he was out there, which is a very high number. The Vikings will be depending on him to be a full-timer next year, and in a limited role he showed off his skills in a year where he missed the entire offseason. His biggest roadblock will be staying healthy. #51 - Mackensie Alexander 4.38 Alexander had a decent year as the Vikings' nickel CB, but hit free agency with a thud and barely made any money. He had similar numbers to Hughes, with 59% completion and 11.2 yards per catch allowed, and QBs targeted him the least compared to the other 3 Vikings' CBs. The biggest negative for him is playmaking ability - he knocked down only 3 passes and made a single interception. It's too bad they couldn't bring him back, as the Bengals should get their money's worth for him. #81 - Trae Waynes 2.97 Wow, I did not expect Waynes to fall below replacement level! Opposing QBs went after Waynes (5.8 targets per snap), as he gave up 757 yards on 59 catches and 6 TDs. That makes for a 104.8 passer rating against, which is a rather poor number. Waynes also has terrible ball skills, and ended up with 5 knockdowns and a single interception (that happened in garbage time). Waynes' only true strength is his pure speed, which prevents him from getting burned deep, but his poor ball skills makes him an easy target for strong WRs to bully. The Bengals paid him $14M a year on a free agent deal, whch seems like a blatant waste of money. #93 - Xavier Rhodes 2.4 How the mighty have fallen. Rhodes had a mediocre 2018 season, but plummeted to rock bottom in 2019, finishing as the 3rd worst CB by my metrics. He allowed a whopping 75.6% passes to be completed (3rd worst in the NFL). He failed to intercept a single pass, and QBs that went his way had a 121 passer rating when doing so. He managed to knock down 9 passes, but no longer has the ability to run with WRs on deep routes. The Colts will try to fix him on a one year deal, but I have a hard time seeing him crack their starting lineup. His days of being an effective CB are likely over now. Since the Vikings could use a veteran CB, let's see who's still out there on the free agent market. Top Free Agents Available: #1 Tramon Williams - #13, 5.89 Despite being a 36 year old nickel CB, Williams defied the odds and had another great season in 2019. He allowed just 52% of passes his way to be completed, and was a slightly above average playmaker. He may be 37 next year, but a wise team should offer him a small one year deal. #2 Logan Ryan - #24, 5.44 Ryan had a below average season as a pure coverage corner, though it should be worth mentioning that he had 4.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. Ryan operated as the Titans' #2 CB and was the NFL's 2nd most highly targeted CB, giving up 938 yards and 5 TDs. Throw in the 5 interceptions and 10 knockdowns, and Ryan is the definition of a boom-or-bust player. He's apparently asked for at least $10M a year, which for obvious reasons has scared away any potential suitors. #3 Darqueze Dennard - #27, 5.24 Dennard had a 3 year, $13.5M deal fall through with the Jaguars, and now he remains a free agent. Dennard missed part of the year with an injury, but the 28 year old had a quality season as the Bengals' nickel CB. He allowed just 9 yards per catch and gave up a total of 207 yards and 0 TDs. He'd be an upgrade to several teams' secondaries. #4 Ross Cockrell - #34, 5.01 I find it hard to believe that 4 of the top 34 CBs are free agents, but here we are. Cockrell played some slot and some outside, and has a track record as a quality #2 CB despite playing on 4 different teams over his 5 year career. He managed to have a high playmaker score with 9 knockdowns and 2 interceptions and #5 Tramaine Brock - #61, 3.8 A true journeyman, Brock was the Cardinals' #2 CB before getting cut midseason. His play wasn't quite bad enough to deserve being cut, as he allowed a low yards per catch and was not targeted heavily by opposing QBs, but he did give up 68% of passes to be completed and was a subpar playmaker. #6 Brandon Carr - 3.18 - A veteran CB who moved to safety midseason and has never missed a game. Even in Baltimore's DB friendly defense, he showed zero playmaking ability and gave up 502 yards and 4 TDs. #7 Daryl Worley - 3.09 - A young CB who has played a lot over his first four years, but just hasn't cut it in coverage. #8 B.W. Webb - 2.6 - Webb had to start nearly the whole year for the Bengals and actively hurt the team with his play. If you are interested in reading more, I have posted Part 2 in the NFL Talk Forums where I will cover how the rest of the league did at CB. Here is an excerpt: Worst CB Groups based solely on 2019 play: #28 - Vikings Only a couple of years ago this unit was locking teams down, but now it has been gutted. Only Mike Hughes remains - though, the departures of Rhodes and Waynes is actually a positive according to my metrics. Still, the Vikings are left with nobody to take on other teams' #1 WRs, and it will be up to 1st rounder Jeff Gladney, 3rd rounder Cameron Dantzler, and the suspension-plagued Holton Hill to rebuild the position. Expect some rough outings from this squad as they figure things out. If you are interested in seeing the entire spreadsheet of CB Grades, you can reach it here on this google sheet. What do you think of my CB grading system? Do you think it fairly portrays them, and if not, what should be changed in my formula? Where there any players who you were surprised by their ranking? It seems to me that most NFL fans say that their team's CBs suck. In the modern NFL game, playing coverage is incredibly difficult, as fast WRs can blow by you, tall TEs can tower over you and get |
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It's time for the 2020 NFL Offseason, and you know what that means! It's time for the 5th Annual Guide to the Vikings Offseason from yours truly! And when I say "guide to the offseason", I mean to say this is how I would manage the Vikings' roster if I were the GM. This is not a list of predictions that I think will happen, but what I want to happen. Click here to read article Anyways, here's the current cap situation for the Vikings:  Cap Room: -$12.84 Wow, we’ve went from $53M in 2018 to $6.3M in 2019, and now a negative double digit amount in 2020. Not good, but there will be moves that can be made to give this roster some flexibility. Offseason Goals: Get younger and focus on getting players who can help now and down the road. I may be the GM in control right now, but I am going to operate under the assumption that I’m going to have a job in 2021. This isn’t the time to get reckless and throw everything away to win now, but it’s also not time to trade a bunch of picks and move up into the top 10 to select a QB. If 2020 is to be the final year of the Spielman-Zimmer combo, then I want to make the roster prepared to rebound quickly to prevent several years of tanking. So, without any further ado, let's get this party started! Releases / Cuts CB Xavier Rhodes (move saves $8.1M, leaves $4.8M of dead money) Y’know, before I go into the negatives about Rhodes, I’d just like to mention that I’ve enjoyed most of Rhodes’ career as a Viking. I don’t hate the guy - I was a huge fan of his and was high on my wish list when he was selected. At his peak, he was a top CB who could lock on to most WRs and shut them down. Threats like Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones were neutralized in his wake. But that was the past, and this is now. I remarked in last year’s offseason manifesto that Rhodes had a down year in 2018. Well, Rhodes redefined what a down year for him was in 2019. He’s clearly slow down due to age and injury, gave up play after play in coverage, consistently made dumb mistakes to draw penalties, and multiple times had communication issues that resulted in huge plays. He was far and away the defense’s biggest liability, and finding an upgrade would go a long way to improve this team. DT Linval Joseph (move saves $10.49M, leaves $2.4M of dead money) This was a hard move to make, as Linval has been the D-line’s anchor for several years now. Joseph’s contributions in the trenches established the Vikings’ defense being a top 10 unit year in and year out. But he’s 31 now, and has been steadily declining since 2017. I’m not risking finding out if he takes another step back in 2020. His play in 2019 was above average, but by PFF’s grades, the worst in his career as a Viking (he set the bar pretty darn high though!). Joseph only missed 2 games due to injury, but the Vikings’ run defense had a masterful game against Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas in his absence. It makes sense to slide Shamar Stephen into his slot as the nose tackle, since Stephen is a solid run defender, but brings zero pass rush. DE Everson Griffen voids his own deal (move saves $13.07M, leaves $800K in dead money) Griffen’s contract is a bit of an odd one, allowing him to void his deal due to his high level of play in 2019. But why would he void the rest of his 3 year, $444M deal? It’s simple – there’s only $800K left guaranteed, meaning that the Vikings could cut him at any time and pocket the money. Instead, it’d be wise if Griffen cut his losses and headed to the FA market for a new deal. While it’s certainly possible the Vikings could work on a new deal with him, I’ll let him sign elsewhere. Griffen’s play in 2019 was like his past seasons after a troublesome 2018. He’s going to turn 33 next year, and I’m pushing towards a youth movement, so I will opt to let Griffen go. It will be difficult to replace him. Current cap room: $18.8M Restructures LT Riley Reiff – Drops cap hit to $7.22M, pushes $3.7M guaranteed to 2021. Move saves $5.98M of 2020 cap. This restructure will act as a small pay cut and push some of Reiff’s unguaranteed money to 2021. Instead of receiving a $10.9M salary in 2021, his salary will be cut to the minimum, but he will receive a prorated bonus of $9.4M. Reiff will basically make a bit less money in 2020, but will get more total money thanks to guaranteeing some of his 2021 salary. At the moment, the Vikings don’t have a replacement ready at LT, which is one of the hardest positions to fill in the NFL. The only real possibility I see outside of trading for Trent Williams would be to move RT O’Neill there, but I’d rather keep him at his current position. Reiff is a average LT who is starting to age and is rather expensive, so this will likely be his last year as a Viking. FS Harrison Smith – Drops cap hit to $7.047M, pushes $3.9M to 2021. Move saves $3.7 of 2020 cap. This restructure will not act as a pay cut. Smith will receive a $7.85M bonus that will be split between 2020 and 2021. We will have plenty of money to spend in 2021, so I think moving about $8M there with these two restructures is fine enough, and will not mortgage the future. Smith is still playing on a very high level, but it’s possible 2020 will be his last year as a Viking. I’m not ready to move on quite yet. WR Stefon Diggs – Drops cap hit to $10.5M, spreads $4M across 4 years. Move saves $3M of 2020 cap. This is a rather minor restructure, and like Smith’s, not a pay cut. The move turns $4M of Diggs’ base 2020 salary and guarantees it, giving it to him up front. This causes $1M to be added to each of the 4 years of his deal, which is good for him as he only has $9M guaranteed left on his deal. He will be a potential trade chip for the 2021 offseason, but I’m not going to move on from him now – the offense would suffer greatly without him. LB Eric Kendricks – Drops cap hit to $7.014M, spreads $4M across 4 years. Move saves $3M of 2020 cap. I didn’t want to make this many restructures, but unfortunately, here we are. This is the exact same as Diggs’ restructure. Kendricks will now make $12M in 2021 and $13M in 2022, which are reasonable with the elite level of play he held in 2019. Current cap room: $34.5M Extensions to Players Under Contract None Yeah, that’s right! I am not giving extensions to anyone who is under contract, which mainly includes Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook. I am by no means anti-Cousins, but I have no interest paying him over $30M a year to be our QB. Kirk gives the Vikings fringe top 10 QB play and has shown that he is capable of winning a tough playoff game, but I’m also concerned that Cousins is stuck at Alex Smith level. Smith is a fine QB, but the Chiefs never had the ability to get over the hump until they went ahead and drafted Pat Mahomes. Cousins is a fine QB to have in the meantime, but preparations should be made to look to improve his position. Cook, on the other hand, is an easy “no” for an extension. He can’t stay healthy, nearly all of the best HBs in the NFL are currently on their rookie deals, and the Vikings should focus on throwing money at other positions than HB. They already have capable backups in Mattison and Boone, and you can put most any HB out there and they’ll do a fine job if you provide the blocking. I don’t fear a Cook holdout in 2020, but he likely would if he gets the franchise tag slapped on him in 2021. I also don’t feel the need to trade him now, but they could try a tag-and-trade over the 2021 season. As for now, I’ll head into 2020 with Cook as my primary running back. Re-signing Our Free Agents FS Anthony Harris – 4 years, $55M Now with contracts laid out!  I went back and forth on extending Harris. In one sense, paying two safeties $10M+ a year is not a wise way to allocate your cap. Safety is also the deepest position in the NFL, and many talented players can be had for cheap (I was targeting FS Tre Boston as a cheap replacement). However, Harris is currently one of the best players in the NFL. He is a playmaker, picking off 7 passes this season (including postseason). That makes 10 interceptions in his past 25 starts! While I planned on allocating money to the trenches, I simply couldn’t justify letting Harris go. Harrison Smith isn’t going to be around forever, and the Vikings defense needs more players who can generate turnovers. CB Mackensie Alexander – 4 years, $32M  I also went back and forth on Alexander, but I’ve opted to give him a new deal, as he fits my plan of going young. Once Alexander was able to get ahold of the starting nickel job in 2018, he’s been a good but not great pass defender who has outplayed Rhodes and Waynes each of the past two seasons. 2020 will be just his third season in the starting lineup, so you’d hope he could continue to improve his game. OLB Eric Wilson – Original Round Tender - $2.144M Wilson jumped Ben Gedeon on the depth chart as he became a “starter” as the third linebacker to Kendricks and Barr. Of course, I say that with quotation marks because the Vikings only use a 3rd LB about 25% of the time. He’s a quality player and deserves to be re-signed, though it’s possible another team could swoop in and bid for him since he’s a restricted free agent. FB C.J. Ham – Extend on a 3 year, $6M deal Instead of tendering Ham and giving him $2.144M like Wilson, I’ve opted to give Ham a small deal that will make him the 4th highest paid FB in the league… no, seriously. Only two FBs in the league make over $3M a year, so Ham should be able to be retained for an amount this small. K Dan Bailey – 2 year, $4M deal I’ll tell you what, I did not imagine I’d be writing this back in the 2019 preseason when the Vikings traded a 5th rounder to get Kaare Vedvik. Bailey suffered from horrible accuracy during training camp, yet rebounded and had a very strong regular season. It seemed his poor 2018 season would have signaled the end for him, but he responded by suddenly turning back into his old self when he was a Cowboy. I would make sure to get him back, especially since our efforts in finding a new kicker are likely to end in failure. SS Andrew Sendejo – 1 year, $900K Sendejo was willing to sign a 1 year $860K deal with the Eagles last offseason, so perhaps he would make a bit more to return as a backup. Sendejo wasn’t bad with the Eagles (though he did give one of his own players a severe concussion) and was a quality backup for the Vikings, coming up with a big interception in the Broncos game and playing an entire game at nickel CB against the Saints and holding his own. Safeties are a dime a dozen these days, so it shouldn’t take much to get him back. Players Being Let Go CB Trae Waynes Always more name than game, it took a full two seasons of learning on the bench and rotating with Terence Newman to get Waynes into the starting lineup… and the former 11th overall pick turned into an unspectacular #2 CB. Trae can take on most team’s secondary and tertiary receivers and do just fine, but when he goes up against a team’s team option, he simply can’t do it. He’s got speed like few other CBs, but his ball skills are so poor, his speed is put to poor use again and again. He will likely sign a multi-year deal that will pay him far more than he’s worth. S Jayron Kearse The Vikings might actually end up missing Kearse more than you’d expect. When he was in the lineup, Kearse was a strong run defender and had very strong coverage grades when he got the chance. Unfortunately, the Vikings rarely ever gave him the chance to see the field over his 4 year career in Minnesota, so other teams will be signing him for his potential. Add in a boneheaded DUI that will likely earn him a 4 game suspension to start the 2020 season, and he will likely be had for cheap. P Britton Colquitt I originally opted to keep Colquitt with a 2 year deal, but the market for punters is paying more than I would like to give with the cap that’s already bursting at the seams. I was surprised to learn that 15 NFL punters make over $2M a year, meaning that Colquitt will require at that much. The Vikings have shown that they can bounce between Quigley/Wile/Colquitt while getting average at worst performances from them, so I’d rather go to the drawing board with a UDFA punter TE David Morgan Morgan was a quality run-blocking TE for the Vikes from 2016-18, but a knee problem from 2018 cost his entire 2019 season. I liked what I saw from UDFA TE Brandon Dillon, so I will move on to the younger, cheaper, and healthier option. (update: apparently Morgan’s contract tolled over into 2020, which means I save $745K by cutting him. I get a tiny bit more cap to play with! Hooray!) T Rashod Hill Hill might command a bit of money after starting 16 games the past 3 years – though, he should end up as a high-end swing tackle, and not a starter. The Vikings tried to start the 2018 season with him as their RT, and it did not work out at all. He will already be 28 in 2020, and I will fill his spot with a rookie. DE Stephen Weatherly The former 7th rounder put himself on the map with a solid 6 game replacement of Everson Griffen during the 2018 season. The Vikings rewarded him with a larger role in 2019, but you could hardly tell, as he basically disappeared from sight. Weatherly’s play was among the league’s worst pass rushers, so I’m unsure if the Vikings should ask him to return. He could be a guy who returns at a cheap price when he discovers that other teams aren’t interested in paying him. C Brett Jones Jones is a fine backup center, but I’d rather develop my own long term interior O-line backup. WR Laquon Treadwell LOL bye! G Dakota Dozier Dozier was a 90 man roster add who signed a deal near the league minimum, but was able to win the backup guard/center role and ended up starting 4 games. He did not look good (though it was against the Packers, Bears, Eagles, and Broncos, so tough competition there) and I don’t want him back next year. HB Ameer Abdullah Functioning as the backup 3rd down HB and kick returner, I think I can find an easy replacement to Abdullah late in the draft, or even a UDFA. He’s fine at what he does and could return at the veteran minimum, if needed. QB Sean Mannion I have no interest in retaining one of the league’s worst backup QBs. It’s nice that Cousins is so durable, but I’d still like to find a better option. I’m still salty from the whole Sloter situation. CB Marcus Sherels Poor Marcus. I was right to leave him out of my plans in last year’s article, but Sherels ended up getting cut 3 different times in 2019, and had 2 stints with the Vikings, ending with a muffed punt in the divisional matchup against the 49ers. Sherels should retire. LB Kentrell Brothers Brothers is a fine special teams LB, but no longer has the upside to crack the starting lineup. His start against the Bears Week 17 was his first career start, and quite possibly his last. I’d be fine bringing him back at the veteran minimum. Trades Vikings send G/C Pat Elflein and a compensatory 7th round pick to the Bengals for their 6th round pick. With one year left on his deal, Pat Elflein could make for a nice reclamation project with another team. He’s not a fit in the Vikings zone blocking system, and would have a decent chance at cracking Cincinnati’s starting lineup. This move saves a bit of cap, and I won’t have a hard time finding a backup guard/center. Current cap room: $17.85M Free Agency Sign CB Kendall Fuller to a 4 year, $36M deal.  The younger brother of Bears CB Kyle Fuller, Kendall started out as the Redskins nickel CB in 2017 before getting sent to Kansas City in the Alex Smith trade. He had standout 2017 and 2018 seasons, and became a full-time starter with the Chiefs after they pulled off the trade. However, his 2019 had him miss 5 games due to injury and his quality of play dipped. I think this is a great opportunity to sign a young (only 25 in 2020!) CB who has the potential to be a long term option. He may not be the shutdown #1 CB that the Vikings could use, but Fuller can function as an outside CB on 2 WR sets and usually shifts to the nickel in 3+ WR sets, so it’s not like he’s locked into being a nickel CB. The Vikings absolutely need to come away with at least 1 veteran CB who can hold his own, and while it will be hard to bid for the big fish in the free agent market, Fuller would be a great second tier grab. Sign DT Maliek Collins to a 5 year, $56M deal.  This will be the only other major splash the Vikings will make in the free agent market. The Vikings D-line sorely lacked a 3T DT to add some interior rush, and Collins will give them that push. PFF had him as a top 10 interior pass rusher, and while he only provided 4 sacks for the Cowboys last season, it’s all about the pressures. He’s also not a pushover against the run. I expect Collins’ price tag to reach into the $11-12M per year range, but it’s possible the price goes higher than this. If they can’t land a player of Collins’ caliber in free agency, they should look to find that guy with their 1st round pick. Sign WR Tajae Sharpe to a 1 year, $3.5M deal. This wouldn’t be a Day 1 deal, but it would make for a solid acquisition of a WR who could fill the #3 role. The former 5th rounder started his career as the Titans’ #2 WR, but bounced between the fringe of the roster and starting again throughout his 4 year career. Sharpe could make for a good fit as an outside receiver with Diggs/Thielen in the slot and the other as the opposite outside receiver. He’s not going to be anything special, but he’d give you way more production than Treadwell could in that same role. Sign OLB Bryce Hager to a 1 year, $900K deal. The former Ram has been a gritty special teams contributor, but has never gotten the chance to seize a starting role for LA. The Vikings could use a backup to Kendricks/Barr/Wilson with just Cameron Smith left on the roster (I don't have Gedeon making the team). This would likely be a post-draft signing. Current cap room: $3.2M Draft Picks Pick 1-25: G Shane Lemieux I don’t know this year’s draft class all that well, so please understand that the positions are more important than the actual players here. I opted not to go after a guard in free agency to fill Elflein’s spot, but I fully intend to find a top-notch option. Since I will be returning Reiff, O’Neill, Bradbury, and Kline, I can’t afford to go cheap on the 5th spot. If we could get a big rookie season from an interior offensive lineman, it should give Cousins more time to throw and a better chance of hanging with tougher pass rushes. Pick 2-25: DE Kenny Willekes More picks to bolster the trench! Right now my DE depth chart is Hunter, Odenigbo… and not much else. Even if Willekes ends up as a rotational body behind Odenigbo, we need more talent in the D-line rotation. Willekes has a high motor and picked up 10.5 sacks for Michigan State in 2019, and would hopefully end up as another success story for D-line coach / co-DC Andre Patterson. Pick 3-25: QB Jalen Hurts You probably could have seen this one coming since I refused to give Cousins an extension. It’s time the Vikings started taking some shots at QBs, even if they are likely to be low-percentage ones. I understand that many are hesitant to let Spielman try to draft another QB, but I think that’s a poor reason to never attempt it again. Hurts has the upside to be a mobile QB with a decent arm, but needs to work on his vision and decision-making process. I’d rather hand the 2021 Vikings Hurts + a cheap veteran than giving Cousins a new $30M+ a year deal. Pick 4-25: T Jack Driscoll I’m taking a similar approach Spielman did to the 2019 draft – go O-line with the 1st and 4th round picks. I’ve already stated that this is likely to be Reiff’s last year as a Viking, we could use a depth pick to develop another tackle alongside Oli Udoh. Driscoll had a good year as Auburn’s RT, but needs to build strength (only 296 lbs). Perhaps O’Neill could move to LT in 2021 and Driscoll could take over the RT spot then too. Pick 4-Compensatory: CB Troy Pride Jr. Zimmer has a notorious disdain for using rookie CBs, so I’d rather see the Vikes select them later in the draft. Pride Jr. can sit behind Fuller, Hughes, Alexander, and Hill and develop for the future. Pick 6-14: OLB Kamal Martin (acquired in trade with TB) Late round LBs are what Rick Spielman lives for. He can make up for not drafting Gophers LB Blake Cashman last year and scoop up another U of M alum in Martin. Pick 6-25: S Jaylinn Hawkins Now we’re getting deep in the weeds. My plan only has Sendejo as the backup safety, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see a late round pick spent on a reserve safety. They took Marcus Epps with a 6th rounder last year, but he was poached away by the Eagles when the Vikings tried to get him to the practice squad. Pick 6-Compensatory: C Matt Hennessey (I traded a 7th to move pick #7-2 into a late 6th rounder.) I’ve noticed that there are several NFL centers who are late picks/UDFAs who are having successful careers, like Ryan Jensen, Austin Reiter, Chase Roullier, and Matt Skura. While the center job is not leaving the hands of Garrett Bradbury anytime soon, it wouldn’t hurt to draft a backup to him. Pick 7-Compensatory: HB Jason Huntley I’ll be totally honest – I just went to College Football Reference and sorted by players who have had the most kick return TDs and will be draft-eligible. Huntley, who hails from New Mexico State, returned 5 kicks for TDs in 59 tries in his 4 year career. He’s not projected to be drafted, so why not spend a late pick on him? It’s better than blowing the selection on a long snapper. UDFA: Added P Blake Gillikin Punters can be scooped up anywhere these days, as the Vikings’ last 3 punters have been free agent pickups on cheap deals. We don’t have much cap rook left, so I’ll opt to make a UDFA my starting punter. UDFA: Added DE La'Darius Hamilton The roster has room for another project D-lineman, so I'll take a flier on a small school player. Alright, let’s see how the roster turned out!  Depth Chart  Final Cap Room: $4.4M (we saved more money by cutting some players like Gedeon and Holmes to get down to 53 players) Questions You May Have About the Roster: I thought you were going to fix the trenches, but you only added one new starter on the O-line? That’s right. You might have expected to see LT Reiff get replaced, but left tackles. They were unlikely to find one with their 1st round pick, as usually the sure-fire LTs go early, and I’m not a fan of the free agent LTs this year (Anthony Castonzo, D.J. Humphries, Andrew Whitworth, and Jason Peters). This plan hinges on Bradbury taking a big step up from his play as a rookie. As a 1st round pick, I couldn’t just give up on him, and it’s far too early to call him a bust and find a replacement. If he can step up and my rookie LG can play well out of the gate, the O-line will be one of the better units in the NFL. Meanwhile, as for the D-line, I don’t have the depth I would like to, but I now have a top 10 pass rusher (per PFF) on the outside (Hunter) and on the inside (Collins). Odenigbo played 40% of the snaps and got 7 sacks last year, and while you can’t seriously project that forward, it’s clear he’s ready to roll with a bigger role. Shamar Stephen can slide over to the NT spot Joseph leaves open, which fits him far better than the 3 technique role he played last year. Add in Willekes, Watt, and Johnson as the rotational guys, and it should make for a strong group. Are you really going to trust Mike Hughes with the #2 CB job? Yes, I am. Spielman and Zimmer thought of Hughes highly enough to spend a 1st round pick on him, and while I didn’t like the pick, it’s time for him to come through and play up to his draft pick. I’ve already given a bunch of money to Fuller, Harris, and Alexander, so throwing any more money at the secondary would be irresponsible (that is, to pull money away from improving other positions). I am quite high on Holton Hill, so if Hughes gets hurt again or disappoints, Hill can step up and fill his spot. Did you ruin the 2021 cap by making these moves? Great question! Let’s do a quick analysis: Total salaries in 2021: $178.2M After releases: $130.5M After re-signings and restructures: $167M After free agents and draft picks: $196M 2020 Rollover: Approximately $3-5M 2021 Cap Room: Will probably be around $210M 2021 Cap Space: Very roughly $18M So to answer your question… not quite. The big signings in my plan definitely shifted some money over into the 2021 season, but just like this year, some expensive veterans could be released to make more room (Rudolph can be released for an extra $5M, Barr for $8M, Reiff for around $7M, Diggs & Thielen make $30M together and could be traded for more room). If you’re going to hit the reset button over the 2021 offseason, there will be plenty of players to trade away and the cap will open up. I’m also not concerned that the players with bigger deals – Fuller, Collins, Harris, and Alexander – will start regressing due to age anytime soon, as Harris the only one who’s getting paid into his 30s. Alright, that’s enough for one article! What did you think? How would you manage the Vikings’ cap and put the 2020 roster together? It's time for the 2020 NFL Offseason, and you know what that means! It's time for the 5th Annual Guide to the Vikings Offseason from yours truly! And when I say "guide to the offseason", I mean to |
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Danchat created this lovely visual for all of us, and I thought it deserved its own thread to promote more discussion. Click here to read article Here is (part of) his original post: I've created a depth chart that colors the players by draft pick:  So... does anyone else think the Vikings have spent enough draft capital on defense? They don't have a single first round pick on offense starting that was drafted by Minnesota, and they have 5 MN defensive guys drafted in the first round! And not just that, but 18 defensive players were drafted by the Vikings remain on the roster... and just half, only 9 on offense. The Vikings have a paltry 4 starters on offense that were drafted by them in the first 4 rounds: Dalvin Cook, Kyle Rudolph, Pat Elflein, and Brian O'Neill. That's it! It's time the Vikings attacked their weaknesses on offense in the upcoming draft. Not only do the Vikings have just one blatant need on defense (DT), but they also have the NFL's best DL coach in Andre Patterson and a great DB developer in Mike Zimmer. Why spend so many high draft picks on DBs when you can develop guys like Anthony Harris and Holton Hill? It would be foolish to spend yet another draft on defense while the offense had so many issues last year that weren't addressed in free agency. |
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We're back to the NFL Offseason - and you know what time it is! The 4th Annual Guide to the Offseason! Before we start, just a reminder, this is not an article about predicting what will happen, but it's rather what I would do with the Vikings roster if I were the GM. Click here to read article Here's the current cap situation for the Vikes:  Yikes, only $6.3M in cap room. Last year we had $53M to play with, so I'll be limited with what I can do. Here goes! Releases / Waives WR Laquon Treadwell (move saves $0M, all $3.16M is dead) Goodbye, Bustwell. Despite putting up great numbers in college and displaying athleticism and great hands, none of that transitioned to the NFL. It seems to me that when he broke his fibula and dislocated his ankle in 2014 (it was a gruesome injury, look it up), he was never the same afterwards. All of his burst was gone and with no ability to separate from defenders, he could at least been a solid possession receiver. That didn't happen as Treadwell coasted on his talent (he admitted this in his sophomore year with the Vikings) and didn't bother to master route-running. All this has added up to a WR who can't get open, can't run routes, can't catch the ball, and doesn't seem to be bothered to improve his game. The Vikings offense will improve simply due to him not being on the field. G/T Mike Remmers (move saves $4.55M, leaves $1.8M in dead money) Remmers signed a 5 year, $30M deal with the Vikings, and I wouldn't say that it was a total failure. His 2016 season at RT was successful and he earned his pay. However, when Easton went down at the end of the 2016 season, Remmers moved to RG and that foreshadowed his permanent move to guard. Unfortunately, Remmers proved to be a below average guard who simply doesn't have the strength to move defensive linemen in the run game. His strength was always as a pass defender as a RT, and it was baffling locked him into the RG spot even when realistic alternatives existed. With RT Brian O'Neill appearing to be a mainstay there, I'll move on from Remmers to open some cap room. He'll get another crack at starting somewhere else because NFL teams are so desperate for offensive linemen. SS Andrew Sendejo Sendejo's contract has the 2019 season as an option that the Vikings can decline. I'll pass on paying Sendejo that, as Anthony Harris has taken over his job and played better than he ever did. That's not to say Andrew didn't play well as a Viking - he was a solid run defender and decent in coverage, and he provided a stable partner to Smith in the defensive backfield. He'll be 32 next season and his groin injury that cost him the season lingered far longer than expected, so I'd rather go with the younger guy who played better, but I'll give Sendejo a "happy trails" on his way out. Remaining Cap: $16.4M Re-Signing Restructure DE Everson Griffen's deal - save $5M I think restructuring Griffen's deal to give him some more guaranteed money while lowering his cap hit in 2019 is a win-win for each side. I'm not ready to have the Vikings move on from Griffen quite yet, and I'm not sure why exactly he started to regress in the second half of the season - he seemed to be healthy, mentally and physically, but he wasn't creating any pressure. SS Anthony Harris - 3 years, $18M total, $5M guaranteed Harris shot ahead of George Iloka when Sendejo went down with injury, and I'm willing to pay him now that he's about to hit free agency. The good news is that safeties don't make very much money nowadays, so Harris shouldn't be expensive to retain. $6M a year seems to be fair compared to other safeties getting that money (Micah Hyde/Quandre Diggs/Jonathan Cyprien). You could say that it's odd to retain Harris despite his inexperience compared to Barr and Richardson, but he'll be much cheaper and he easily outplayed those two in 2018. ERFAs P Wile and FB Ham retained Matt Wile and C. J. Ham can be brought back for next to nothing, so I'll have them return. Ham hasn't done much as a FB, and it'll be up to Stefanski to use him or discard the FB position. Wile had a good season as a first year starter and could get better in his second season. Tender RFA T Hill - original round (about $800K) Rashod Hill has been a decent backup tackle, so I'll bring him back on an original tender. Any other NFL team could offer him a deal, but I don't think he's good enough to warrant another team overpaying him to steal him away. Sign WR Aldrick Robinson 1/$1.2M Robinson and Cousins had some chemistry going (at least for a 4th WR), and I'd love to bring back Aldrick at a steeper price. He won't be guaranteed a roster spot, but I like his chances of sticking around as the 4th WR. Remaining Cap: $12.3M Players Being Let Go DT Sheldon Richardson Richardson was a surprise signing that most Vikings fans didn't expect to happen after Cousins' deal. Richardson delivered a decent season that was similar compared to his past efforts - plenty of pressure, not a ton of sacks, and decent run support. PFF rated him as slightly above average, and it's for that reason I'm not bringing him back. He should earn $10M+ a season, and for what he brings, he's simply not worth the money. The Vikings have many other needs that need to be addressed, and they won't lose much letting Richardson go. OLB Anthony Barr This was a tough one, but I'm letting Barr go. The 4 time Pro Bowler's potential was never quite reached with the Vikings, as I think he's better fit as a pass rushing-first 3-4 OLB role. Barr is a very capable run defender and decent cover LB, but his play for the Vikings fluctuate from fantastic to disastrous. Barr's 2018 was all over the place with a few dominant games (vs Dolphins, at Seahawks) and a few awful games (vs Bills, vs Bears). However, with the money he'll command (I'm thinking $13M a year or more) and the fact that when he's been injured, the Vikings defense has been fine... I'm letting him go. Replacing him won't be easy, but it must be done. HB Latavius Murray Murray had a solid two year run with the Vikings and proved to be a capable starter, but nothing more than that. In the five starts he received with Cook injured, Murray topped 70 yards once and ran for just 4.0 yards per carry in his Vikings career. He's a great pass protector, but brings little to nothing as a receiver (he also dropped a pass that was intercepted in the abysmal Bills game). I'd rather look for a younger and cheaper replacement, as the more I watch NFL games, the more I realize you can plug any HB behind a good offensive line and they'll run well, and that makes bringing back Murray of little value to me. C Brett Jones The Vikings acquired Jones for a 7th round pick, and they started him for 3 games and used him as the backup center for the rest of the season. Jones' PFF grade was very low, but his near-full 2017 campaign with the Giants was well-rated. He'll sign a small deal as a backup center somewhere. G Tom Compton Compton should have made the team as a backup guard who could fill in at a moment's notice. Instead, due to Easton's back injury, he ended up starting 14 games and was a poor blocker. Compton would have games where he would play relatively well, but when it came time to face guys like DeForest Buckner (3 sacks) or Aaron Donald (1 game-ending strip sack), he had no chance. Compton will make someone else's team as a reserve. S George Iloka Iloka was a 5th round pick who was developed by then-Bengals DC Mike Zimmer, and he was a good not great starting safety for Cincinnati for several years. The Bengals went with a rookie at safety and axed Iloka, and he took a backup job with the Vikings, and luckily for him, Sendejo had a groin injury that ended his season. However, something happened that nobody saw coming - Anthony Harris ran away with the job and never looked back. Iloka rotated as the starting safety alongside Smith, and while his play was average, Harris was on another level. Iloka might not get a starting job next year, but he's a great backup at this point. QB Trevor Siemian The Vikings made Siemian their backup after shipping this year's 5th round pick to Denver for him. With QB injuries frequently had here in Minnesota, Spielman wisely acquired one of the league's better backups, but I'm ready to move on from him. He should land a backup gig elsewhere and earn around $3-4M a season. I'm ready to move forward with Kyle Sloter as Cousins' primary backup. G Nick Easton I'll pass on figuring out Easton's back injury - I'm sure he'll be willing to come back for cheap, but I'm not interested in having big question marks on the O-line. His injury in 2017 season right before the playoffs crippled the O-line, and his 2018 injury was even worse as it forced Compton in. We need healthy O-lineman on this team, and I can't trust Easton to return and play a full season. DT Tom Johnson The Vikings were able to get Tom Johnson back in despite adding Sheldon Richardson, which was thanks to the Seahawks trying to sneak him into free agency for a week. In his rotational role, Johnson notched 4.5 sacks but didn't do much else, as he was a poor run defender. I think the Vikings are better off going with younger guys (Jaleel Johnson and Holmes) in the rotation to see if they can live up to their potential. HB Ameer Abdullah Special Teams coach Mike Priefer requested the waiver claim on Abdullah due to his ability in returning kicks. However, kick returning happens so infrequently now that he's not worth anything in that department. He was a dynamic back in college, but he fizzled out with the Lions. He'll land on someone's 90 man roster. K Dan Bailey I was all over signing Bailey over Daniel Carlson, and it appears that I was wrong. The Cowboys noticed that Bailey had declined, and it seems it wasn't due to the injury he suffered in 2017. Bailey was the next kicker to flop hard in Minnesota, hitting just 4/9 FGs between 40-49 yards and just one over 50 yards. There are still many teams hungry for a new kicker, so some other team can go pay him if they'd like. I'd rather find a young kicker to develop. CB Marcus Sherels I have plans to add a new punt returner, so it's time to say "so long" to Sherels. He's been a great punt returner, but he'll be 32 next season and I think it's time to move on. Trade Vikings send CB Trae Waynes and a 2020 5th rounder for NO OLB Alex Anzalone. To open enough cap space for the moves I'd like to make in free agency, I will need to trade a CB, and I think Trae Waynes is the one to go. Trae has proven to be a solid #2 CB, but not much else than that. With Rhodes, Hill, and Hughes all capable of taking his place, it seems prudent to trade him now. I'll ship him off to the Saints, who need to find a #2 CB to Marshon Lattimore after the Eli Apple trade backfired. In return, the Vikings will get OLB Alex Anzalone, of whom I'm chalking up as my Anthony Barr replacement. A 3rd round pick entering his third season, Anzalone is the Saints' 3rd OLB behind DeMario Davis and AJ Klein, and with those two under contract, I believe the Saints would be willing to move him. He's played decently when on the field, but I think he has potential for more. The Vikings get two years of control over Anzalone, so I'll send the Saints a 5th rounder next year to help make up for that. Remaining Cap Room: $20.4M Free Agency C Matt Paradis 5 years / $50M total / $22M guaranteed Alright, here's our big free agency spending. The Vikings need to add some high-end offensive line talent, and Paradis qualifies as that. The Vikings have Gary Kubiak and Rick Dennison, who are familiar with Paradis, and offering a $50M sum should get him in town. This will move Elflein to competing for the LG spot and backing up Paradis at center. T Ty Nsekhe 2 years / $7M total / $3.5M guaranteed I wanted the Vikings to nab Nsekhe in free agency two years ago, and I want him back again. Nsekhe has possibly been the best swing tackle in the NFL, serving at LT and RT for the Redskins. I would like to bring in Nsekhe as the primary swing tackle, but also give him a chance to be the LG. He has the size to play guard, and if he fails there, then we have the league's best backup tackle, so I'll be happy with that. HB T. J. Yeldon 2 years / $5.5M / $1.75M guaranteed I think making a small investment at the HB position makes sense during free agency, and Yeldon would qualify as a high-upside flier. Yeldon struggled in his first two seasons with the Jaguars, but the latest two seasons he's run for a 4.36 YPC and 85 catches. He hauled in 4 receiving TDs and thrived as Leonard Fournette's compliment in the passing game, though he did get some boosts thanks to a ton of garbage time. Cousins could use a safety value HB to pass to, and it doesn't seem like Cook is going to fill that role. DE William Hayes 1/$3M This is a simple depth addition who may not end up making the team, but the 34 year old Hayes is one of the league's best rotational DEs. The problem is that he blew his ACL this past season - he's the one who tore his knee up while trying not to rough a QB during a sack. He's an insurance policy behind Griffen (and behind Weatherly) in case anything happens to him. You can never have too many DEs! S Mike Mitchell 1/$1M With Sendejo and Iloka gone, there are plenty of decent veteran safeties who will be willing to sign for next to nothing. Mitchell was a starter for the Steelers in 2017 and ended up as a reserve for the Colts in 2018, and played very well until injuring his calf and ending up on the IR. He'll be 32 in June, and while age and injury could be concerns, he won't be guaranteed a roster spot. Jayron Kearse may prove himself to be the next man up at safety anyways. WR Travis Benjamin 1/$1.5M Finally, I'll add another WR. Benjamin is slated to make $6.5M this season for the Chargers, but they aren't going to pay their 4th WR that much, so I'm projecting that he gets cut. Benjamin is a deep threat who won't do much else outside of that (he had a poor 2018 season when on the field)... but he was a very good punt returner in 2017, and I'm pegging him as my replacement to Marcus Sherels. Cap Room Remaining: $4.1M Draft Do note that this is a very early mock and I don't know that much about the draft prospects yet. Pick 1-18: G Cody Ford The Vikings don't just need to spend draft picks on offensive linemen, they need to spend picks on high-end O-line talent. Cody Ford qualifies as that, as the 6' 5" 335 pound man is not only massive but also quick on his feet. He's played right tackle at Oklahoma, but many project him to end up as a guard. Ford should be able to fill a guard spot in his rookie season without many problems and finally put some stitches in the bloody wound that the Vikings have tried to put band-aids on. Pick 2-50: DT Isaiah Buggs This is the best draft to take a DT in the 2nd or 3rd round; the reason being that the 1st round talent on the D-line is the best I've ever seen it. There are 7-8 interior DL first round prospects, meaning that good prospects like Buggs will slip down the draft board because of talented guys ahead of him. He notched 13.5 tackels for loss and 9.5 sacks on his second year starting on the D-line at Alabama, and he runs a sub 5.00 40'. With production and athletsicm, he should help fill the whole left by losing Richardson in free agency. Pick 3-82: WR Terry McLaurin Scouting WRs has proven to be incredibly difficult for NFL scouts and armchair GMs like myself. McLaurin wasn't a top target at Ohio State, but he's received rave reviews for his route running and hands. McLaurin also averaged 20 yards a catch over the 2018 season. I imagine Terry as a WR who can win the 3rd WR job and potentially step in for Diggs or Thielen for a few games if injury strikes. Pick 4-114: TE Josh Oliver Perhaps if Spielman throughs enough darts at mid-round TEs, one will eventually pan out. Oliver was successful as a receiving TE at San Diego State, going for 709 yards and 4 TDs. Since Rudolph is sticking around in this projection, I'll have another young TE push him and perhaps take his job in 2020. Pick 6-180: G/C Sean Krepsz I'm just throwing darts at this point. Krepsz would play guard or center with his size (6' 5" 325 pounds) and has played three seasons as a starting center in Nevada. Perhaps Krepsz can be the next Brandon Fusco - a late round OL who can become a starter in the future. For now, he'll back up both guard and center, just like Elflein. Pick 6-comp: CB Saivion Smith Here's a project for Zimmer to work on - Smith didn't play very much at Alabama, but he turned in good performances when he did get to play (3 ints, 5 passes knocked down). A late pick like this is perfect for drafting a great athlete who didn't get chances to play in college, and he could be developed into something in the future. Plus he's 6'1" 200 lbs, so it's not like he'll be limited as a nickel corner. Pick 7-comp: LB Khalil Hodge Time for Spielman's obligatory 7th round linebacker! Hodge racked up the stat sheet at Buffalo with 298 tackles in two seasons. The small school prospect doesn't stack up quite as well athletically as other LBs, but he'd make for a great special teamer and solid reserve. Pick 7-comp: K Matt Gay Alright, so I usually try not to draft kickers, but the end of the 7th round is a perfectly acceptable time to do it. Gay has hit 54 / 63 FGs in his past two seasons at Utah (85.7%) and can hit 50+ yard kicks reguarly. Unlike Walsh or Carlson, I haven't found anything on him about having streaks of inaccuracy, so sign me up and please don't choke your job away! Oh, and you'll be facing a UDFA kicker for your job, so don't get comfortable! Alright... so let's see where that leaves us:  So that leaves us finished with just $2.03M in cap space, but we made it. Let's take a look at the hypothetical depth chart:  I'm pretty happy with this roster, as I think I've fixed most the problems on the team. I know some will complain about the backup QB, but I'm ready for Sloter to be the #2. Maybe the only change I would make, looking back, is to draft a tackle in the 3rd/4th round to develop behind Reiff and O'Neill. I guess I was thinking that phase 2 of the "fix the O-line plan" would be to find a prospect to develop at LT in 2020. Plus if neither Nsekhe nor Elflein worked at LG, then we'd fix the spot for good in 2020. The defense should be fine, and the new young guys will need to step up to replace Richardson and Barr. Alright, that's enough from me, but what about from you? I'd love to hear about what you like or don't like in my plans - what would you tweak? We're back to the NFL Offseason - and you know what time it is! The 4th Annual Guide to the Offseason! Before we start, just a reminder, this is not an article about predicting what will happen, but |
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The good news is: the 2018 Vikings weren't the worst three-and-out team in recent memory. The bad news is: Stefanski was much worse than Flipper. Click here to read article The Vikings had 54 virtual three-and-outs, which was 4th worst in the league this year. Virtual three-and-out basically meaning: three offensive plays with no first down, and the drive ending in a punt, FG attempt, fumble, INT, downs, safety, etc. Only the Jets (68), Cardinals (62), and Bills (57) had more. Seattle tied us with 54. The Saints had the fewest in the league at 27, followed by the Rams 28, and Chiefs 29. Oddly enough the Bucs were 4th best at 30. The Rams had the fewest conventional three-and-outs at 19 (three plays and a punt). The 54 three-and-outs meant the Vikings went three-and-out on 28.7% of their drives, which was 5th worst. Stefanski went three-and-out on 13 of 35 drives, or 37.1%, which would be worst in the league. The Jets were at 34.2% for the season. And the Vikings weren't even close to being the worst team in recent memory, which surprised me. That title belongs to the 2005 49ers, spearheaded by none other than the QB whisperer himself, Mike McCarthy (who was their OC at the time), had an astounding 89 three-and-outs, or 45.2% of their drives. 77 of those were the conventional three plays and a punt. The Packers hired him as their HC the following year, so go figure. The Vikings' worst three-and-out season since 2004 came in 2006, where they had 64 (32.5%), which was tied for 36th worst out of 480 teams during that time. So the 2018 Vikings were only the 2nd worst Vikings team, and only the 146th worst overall. The 2008 Colts were the best with only 22 three-and-outs. The 2004 Vikings only had 28 (16.7%), and last year we finished with 46 (24.9%). The 2009 Vikings were the 4th worst Vikings team with 52 (27.1%). The 2015 Vikings were the 2nd best Vikings team with only 29 three-and-outs (16.6%). Technically the best percentage wise.  The good news is: the 2018 Vikings weren't the worst three-and-out team in recent memory. The bad news is: Stefanski was much worse than Flipper.
The Vikings had 54 virtual three-and-outs, |
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The Vikings have some interesting decisions to make in the next couple of years regarding their star players, so I thought it was time to take a look at what we may be looking at in contract terms. Click here to read article As it stands now, the Vikings are estimated to have $50.5 Million cap space in 2018. Based on current position contracts in the NFL and each players production, I would estimate the following scenarios: ANTHONY BARR He's producing at a high level and will earn $12.3 million next year after the Vikings picked up his 5th year option. The current high mark at the position is $12.5 million AAV set by the Jamie Collins contract last year, so Barr would be looking to better that. Considering the yearly rises in the salary cap annually, my estimate would be around the $14 million mark AAV. ERIC KENDRICKS He isn't in the same class as Luke Kuechly, but nobody else is either. I have Kendricks pegged at around the same level as Brandon Marshall/Danny Trevathan, who earn $8 million and $7 million AAV respectively, and his stats are at that point. So I would expect Kendricks to be looking for something in the $8 million range AAV DANIELLE HUNTER This could be the big one. The current high mark is Olivier Vernon, who signed an $85 million contract last year with an AAV of $17 million. However Hunter has to prove that he can produce as a starter,with opponents game planning for him better than they have in previous years. Currently Hunter has 3 sacks compared to Griffen who has 9 and is second in the NFL. So based on an admittedly small sample size, Hunter is not anywhere near earning $17 million. He's more likely around $10.5/11 million AAV. The caveat to all that of course is the ability of Mike Zimmer to develop young pass rushers. If Hunter can take the next step and elevate his game to where Griffen is, then Hunter could well be looking at $20 million AAV. STEFON DIGGS This is where opinions will no doubt be divided. The current high is Antonio Brown whose contract pays him $17 million AAV, and Diggs is no Antonio Brown. Based on his current level of production he would probably be looking around $10/11 million AAV. However the question becomes, do you want to pay a guy that amount of money when he can't stay healthy? More than any player on this list, Diggs could well be affected by the achievements of other players currently on the roster, namely Laquon Treadwell and Michael Floyd. If one of these guys is able to step up and prove themselves as a reliable alternative, then Diggs may not be in a strong position from a negotiation standpoint. However if Diggs can get back to full health and finish the season without missing any more games, then play a full season next year,he may well be in line to force the Vikings hand. All three of these players have certainly had their issues, and with the lack of red zone production so far this season the Vikings may well decide to dip in to the free agent receiver market in 2018 with Jarvis Landry and Davante Adams among a host of options. So there you have it. An early outline of what may be required to keep some key pieces on the roster, but what must be remembered is that the Vikings only have one QB signed for next year, and that is rookie Kyle Sloter. What the Vikings do at the QB position is going to be the big decision for the offseason, and may well impact what happens to the above scenarios. All salary cap info courtesy OTCThe Vikings have some interesting decisions to make in the next couple of years regarding their star players, so I thought it was time to take a look at what we may be looking at in contract terms. |
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Welcome back to the 5th Strat-O-Matic simulation where the Vikings will try to get their first win against the Dolphins! I think we'll be able to get the win today, but let's see what happened in the simulation: Click here to read article GAME SUMMARY Q1 13:46 MIA punt. 12:03 MIN punt. (injury: MIA WR Stills out with serious injury) 9:38 MIA 44 yard FG is good (MIA 3-0). 7:28 Cousins loses fumble, recovered by LB McMillan. 5:07 MIA 53 yard FG is good (MIA 6-0). 3:03 MIN punt. 1:31 MIA punt. Q2 12:04 MIN Cousins 11 yard TD pass to Thielen (MIN 7-6). 10:10 MIA punt. 4:14 MIN Cousins 6 yard TD pass to Cook (MIN 14-6). 2:08 Tannehill intercepted by CB Waynes. 1:03 Cousins loses fumble, recovered by DE Wake. 0:39 MIA Tannehill 54 yard TD pass to WR Parker (ex. 2 is good on Gore run) (tied 14-14). Q3 9:00 MIN Cousins 10 yard TD pass to Rudolph (ex. point is blocked) (MIN 20-14). 7:01 MIA punt. 3:37 MIN punt. 1:35 MIA punt. Q4 15:00 MIN punt. 14:01 MIA punt. 7:44 MIN Cousins 6 yard TD pass to Diggs (ex. 2 is good on Cook run) (MIN 28-14). 7:05 MIA Tannehill intercepted by CB Waynes. 4:43 MIN HB Murray 14 yard TD run (35-14). 4:29 MIA Tannehill intercepted by FS Smith. (injury: FS Jones leaves with moderate injury). BOX SCORE  Other: Penalties: Dolphins 8, Vikings 5 -Notes- Well, well. Finally, the Vikings win a game in Strat-O-Matic football, and it was a blowout by the end. The Vikings defense finally showed up in its true form as the Dolphins offense was completely anemic. Check this out: Tannehill's completions by quarter: Q1: 2 Q2: 7 Q3: 0 Q4: 1 Yes, that's right, even in garbage time, the Dolphins couldn't complete passes to save their lives. The Vikings defense had more interceptions than the Fins had completions in the 2nd half!! It didn't help that the Dolphins' top receiver, Kenny Stills, had a serious injury on the second drive of the game. The Vikings didn't even sack Tannehill once, they simply dropped back into coverage and won the game that way. The Dolphins did have 3 drops (two big ones on 3rd down by Amendola and Butler) that really hurt them. The running game was average, but near the end of the game, it stopped working with Gore gaining just 12 yards in the 2nd half. One noteworthy bit - I called a trick play to have WR Parker throw a pass to Brice Butler, and the play actually worked for a 1st down, but it was called back due to a holding penalty on the O-line. On offense for the Vikings, I went for a ground-and-pound approach that worked well against a below-average Miami defense. Cook had a few solid runs (the longest went for 16 yards) and while he still got stuffed for no gain a few times, he did the job. I schemed some passes to him as well, and I was rewarded with 158 total yards from him. Cousins had some problems in the first half (two lost fumbles), but he was efficient and converted most of the 3rd downs I asked him to. Diggs had a lot more success than Thielen did, and I made sure not a single pass went to Treadwell. Zylstra, who didn't end up in the box score, was targeted twice but dropped a pass. Abdullah got some carries late in the 4th and broke a 20 yarder, which was cool to see. That should do it for this edition of Strat-O-Matic Simulation... I'll be back in January if the Vikings make it to the playoffs.Welcome back to the 5th Strat-O-Matic simulation where the Vikings will try to get their first win against the Dolphins! I think we'll be able to get the win today, but let's see what happened in the |
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salamander:
Feb 22, 2024 13:43:06 GMT -6
Reignman: March 11th, 2024 will live in history as Kirk Cousins Independence Day 
Mar 11, 2024 16:34:20 GMT -6
Mar 11, 2024 16:34:20 GMT -6
salbrecht:
Mar 13, 2024 18:31:25 GMT -6
Reignman:
Mar 14, 2024 17:44:47 GMT -6
shandman:
Mar 15, 2024 19:29:01 GMT -6
glenwo2:
Mar 16, 2024 20:17:05 GMT -6
Nemesis: Good grief....first I hear....and then I hear...I think I better go back to being gone. 
Mar 22, 2024 15:24:17 GMT -6
Mar 22, 2024 15:24:17 GMT -6
Norseman:
Mar 22, 2024 22:30:40 GMT -6
Nemesis:
Mar 23, 2024 9:39:00 GMT -6
glenwo2:
Mar 25, 2024 12:26:17 GMT -6
glenwo2:
Mar 25, 2024 12:27:05 GMT -6
Norseman:
Mar 25, 2024 14:28:23 GMT -6
glenwo2:
Mar 25, 2024 16:57:35 GMT -6
Nemesis:
Mar 26, 2024 17:13:40 GMT -6
Reignman:
Apr 1, 2024 22:17:26 GMT -6
Nemesis:
Apr 5, 2024 8:22:45 GMT -6
glenwo2:
Apr 6, 2024 3:01:11 GMT -6
slidell:
Apr 22, 2024 14:37:23 GMT -6
SiteWolf:
Apr 24, 2024 13:47:01 GMT -6
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