[OC] Strength of Schedule: A 4-Part Docuseries
I've gone deeper than anyone has been willing to go before, but since I'm the master of brevity, I'll keep it short and sweet.
I went all the way back to 2002 and took every preseason SOS to see if they had any bearing on the upcoming season, and yes, they kinda did. Lets take this first chart for example. We got the preseason rank there in the first column, and then the average SOS finish of that rank in the 2nd column. It's not earth shattering but there's a little bit of a pattern there. It's backed up by the other 6 columns. If you start with a tough SOS, you're most likely going to have a tough schedule. For example, the toughest SOS has never finished with a bottom 5 SOS. And vice versa. The top 10 and bottom 10 groupings are fairly clear.
That chart is based on the traditional SOS. Nemesis -tem not pictured. The chart below is based on the more accurate S.M.A.R.T.A.S.S. system.
As you can see, the pattern is a little more clear. The Vikings have the 18th toughest S.M.A.R.T.A.S.S. schedule. Only 27th most difficult offensive schedule, so the defense should have it easy, but the 6th toughest defensive schedule, so we already have the 1st excuse for Cousins.
But yeah if you look at the lineup of QB's we face this year, it's very favorable.
Rodgers x2
Fields x2
Goff x2
Hurts
Winston
Tua
Murray
Wentz
Josh Allen
Dak
Mac Jones
Wilson (not that one, Zach)
Ryan
Daniel Jones
Not many scary names on that list.
But how does SOS affect individual teams?
So there you have it. Teams that start with a top SOS, typically win fewer games that season. Oddly enough though, it's not good to end up with the easiest schedule lol. With the 20th ranked SOS like the Vikings have, 9 teams ended up worse and 8 better, with an average win increase of -0.43. Err I mean a 0.43 win decrease?
Now lets see what the S.M.A.R.T.A.S.S. has to say about it.
Looks like the S.M.A.R.T.A.S.S. once again paints a better picture.
Of the 19 teams with the 18th ranked SOS, 12 had more wins the following year, 7 had fewer.
I went all the way back to 2002 and took every preseason SOS to see if they had any bearing on the upcoming season, and yes, they kinda did. Lets take this first chart for example. We got the preseason rank there in the first column, and then the average SOS finish of that rank in the 2nd column. It's not earth shattering but there's a little bit of a pattern there. It's backed up by the other 6 columns. If you start with a tough SOS, you're most likely going to have a tough schedule. For example, the toughest SOS has never finished with a bottom 5 SOS. And vice versa. The top 10 and bottom 10 groupings are fairly clear.
SOS
SOS AVG TOP TOP TOP BOT BOT BOT
RK FINISH 1 5 10 10 5 1
1 12.68 2 4 9 4 0 0
2 13.47 2 4 9 5 3 0
3 14.26 0 4 7 6 1 0
4 12.16 1 3 10 2 1 0
5 12.95 0 6 8 3 2 0
6 14.26 0 2 7 4 2 0
7 11.95 2 7 8 2 2 0
8 13.47 0 3 10 3 2 1
9 12.89 0 5 10 3 2 2
10 18.84 0 2 4 8 4 0
11 16.05 1 3 5 6 1 0
12 13.21 0 4 8 3 1 0
13 14.21 1 6 6 4 1 0
14 18.84 0 4 6 10 5 1
15 16.47 0 4 6 6 4 2
16 17.32 0 4 6 8 5 0
17 15.95 1 2 5 5 1 0
18 19.63 0 0 6 9 6 2
19 15.42 2 3 5 3 0 0
20 15.95 0 1 4 2 2 0 <--- Vikings
21 15.74 1 2 5 4 3 0
22 18.37 0 1 3 4 1 0
23 17.26 1 3 6 6 3 2
24 22.37 0 0 2 10 8 2
25 18.16 0 2 6 8 4 1
26 12.84 4 6 9 4 1 0
27 16.53 1 4 6 5 3 1
28 20.05 0 2 3 8 6 2
29 21.84 0 1 3 13 6 1
30 21.89 0 1 4 10 6 0
31 19.53 0 2 3 8 5 1
32 23.42 0 0 1 14 4 1
That chart is based on the traditional SOS. Nemesis -tem not pictured. The chart below is based on the more accurate S.M.A.R.T.A.S.S. system.
1 9.95 1 9 12 2 0 0
2 9.16 1 8 11 1 0 0
3 11.74 0 4 11 2 1 0
4 13.68 3 5 7 3 0 0
5 8.58 3 8 15 3 0 0
6 15.00 0 2 8 3 2 0
7 12.63 0 2 6 1 0 0
8 10.95 0 7 12 4 1 1
9 14.95 1 4 5 4 1 1
10 12.47 2 6 10 5 2 0
11 15.11 0 1 7 5 3 1
12 17.42 1 2 5 7 4 2
13 11.37 3 8 9 3 0 0
14 17.32 0 1 5 5 2 0
15 14.21 0 4 7 4 1 0
16 12.53 1 5 7 3 1 0
17 15.95 1 2 6 5 2 1
18 18.68 0 0 3 6 4 0 <--- Vikings
19 16.11 0 5 9 7 4 1
20 20.42 0 0 4 8 3 0
21 18.95 1 2 3 5 3 0
22 18.58 1 2 3 8 4 2
23 17.37 0 2 5 6 4 1
24 17.32 0 1 4 5 2 0
25 20.05 0 1 4 9 3 1
26 22.00 0 1 1 9 7 2
27 21.53 0 1 2 10 4 0
28 21.63 0 1 3 9 9 3
29 22.05 0 0 2 11 6 0
30 21.63 0 1 3 11 6 0
31 24.47 0 0 1 12 8 2
32 24.21 0 0 0 14 8 1
As you can see, the pattern is a little more clear. The Vikings have the 18th toughest S.M.A.R.T.A.S.S. schedule. Only 27th most difficult offensive schedule, so the defense should have it easy, but the 6th toughest defensive schedule, so we already have the 1st excuse for Cousins.
But yeah if you look at the lineup of QB's we face this year, it's very favorable.
Rodgers x2
Fields x2
Goff x2
Hurts
Winston
Tua
Murray
Wentz
Josh Allen
Dak
Mac Jones
Wilson (not that one, Zach)
Ryan
Daniel Jones
Not many scary names on that list.
But how does SOS affect individual teams?
SOS # AVG/W TEAMS-THAT-GOT
RK TEAMS INCREASE WORSE BETTER
top 1 25 -0.52 14 8
top 5 115 -0.52 58 45
top 10 201 -0.36 97 84
bot 10 182 0.38 74 88
bot 5 79 0.52 32 36
bot 1 20 -0.30 10 7
So there you have it. Teams that start with a top SOS, typically win fewer games that season. Oddly enough though, it's not good to end up with the easiest schedule lol. With the 20th ranked SOS like the Vikings have, 9 teams ended up worse and 8 better, with an average win increase of -0.43. Err I mean a 0.43 win decrease?
Now lets see what the S.M.A.R.T.A.S.S. has to say about it.
SOS # AVG/W TEAMS-THAT-GOT
RK TEAMS INCREASE WORSE BETTER
top 1 19 -1.21 11 6
top 5 95 -0.83 53 33
top 10 190 -0.17 91 80
bot 10 190 0.49 75 94
bot 5 95 0.88 30 53
bot 1 19 0.37 6 12
Looks like the S.M.A.R.T.A.S.S. once again paints a better picture.
Of the 19 teams with the 18th ranked SOS, 12 had more wins the following year, 7 had fewer.
