[OC] Comparing Round 1 Trade Values

MidwinterViking
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[OC] Comparing Round 1 Trade Values Apr 29, 2022 8:16:45 GMT -6 Reignman, Funkytown, and 10 more like this

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Post by MidwinterViking on Apr 29, 2022 8:16:45 GMT -6

With many trades in the first round I wanted to put the various value into context. I'm not sure how every team values trades, so I plugged all of them into the Rich Hill and Jimmy Johnson Charts for comparison. I ignored trades of players since they can't have pick value assigned:

Commanders Trade #11 to Saints for #16, 98, 120
Jimmy Johnson Point Chart
Commanders Receive: 1000+108+54 = 1162
Saints Receive: 1250

Rich Hill Point Chart
Commanders Receive: 305+38+26 = 369
Saints Receive: 356

This was the only trade I found where the value gain was split, suggesting maybe the Saints used the Jimmy Johnson chart while the Commanders used the Rich Hill value and both teams came away happy.

Texans Trade #13 to Eagles for #15, 124, 162, 166
Jimmy Johnson Point Chart
Texans Receive: 1050+48+25+23.4 = 1146.4
Eagles Receive: 1150

Rich Hill Point Chart
Texans Receive: 315+21+10+9 = 358
Eagles Receive: 336

Evan if teams are using the Jimmy Johnson Chart, but the Texans scored some great surplus value for moving down 2 spots on the Rich Hill model.

Patriots Trade #21 to Chiefs for #29, 94, 121
Jimmy Johnson Point Chart
Patriots Receive: 640+124+52 = 816
Chiefs Receive: 800

Rich Hill Point Chart
Patriots Receive: 203+41+25 = 269
Chiefs Receive: 261

The Patriots receive a small amount of value in both cases. The surplus in both cases is about an early 6th. Given that the lowest pick traded was in the 4th, I'm going to look at this as a rounding error in the Patriots favor.

Bills Trade #23 to Ravens for #25, 130
Jimmy Johnson Point Chart
Bills Receive: 720+42=762
Ravens Receive: 760

Rich Hill Point Chart
Bills Receive: 230+21 = 251
Ravens Receive: 245

Minimal difference, 4 points on the Rich Hill Model is about a late 6th, so pretty Even.

Bucs Trade #27 to Jaguars for #33, 106, 180
Jimmy Johnson Point Chart
Bucs Receive: 580+82+17.8 = 679.8
Jaguars Receive: 680

Rich Hill Point Chart
Bucs Receive: 180+33+7=220
Jaguars Receive: 216

If anything I'm surprised how even this is. I like this from the Jags standpoint just because they kept the trade value even and get to pick up the 5th year option if they want it.

Vikings Trade #12+46 to Lions for #32+34+66
Jimmy Johnson Point Chart
Vikings Receive: 590+560+260 = 1,410
Lions Receive: 1200+440 = 1,640

Rich Hill Point Chart
Vikings Receive: 184+175+76=435
Lions Receive: 347+128=475

Every other team trading is very obviously using a common trade value chart. So this makes the discrepancy in favor of the Lions seem even more out of place. 230 points on the Jimmy Johnson chart is the equivalent value of Pick #72 in the early 3rd. 41 Points on the Rich Hill Chart is pick #94, a late 3rd. So by either metric, the Vikings gifted the Lions a 3rd round pick.

Let's look at some responses:

That's not now this works, Kevin. That's not how any of this works. When every other team is clearly using standard trade values, you don't get to invent an imaginary trade value that exists to no other team, then reference that and say "heyyy we won!". I don't get to walk down the street and shout profanity at strangers and it's ok because "I invented a new language that exists only in my own head and those words have a different meaning."

Ok, Jason_OTC, let's see how well this Player valuation logic holds up. Who are the 3 most valuable QBs (this is not compared to their salary, just straight value) OTC Player Valuation

QB Valuations
Justin Herbert - $35.3M
Josh Allen - $35.2M
Trevor Lawrence - $33.0M
Ok, right away I see a serious issue here. Herbert is pretty good, but Better than Allen, Mahomes, Brady, and everyone? And Trevor Lawrence stunk (remember this isn't value added over salary, this is straight value). But that's QBs, Detroit took a WR, let's see who the most valuable WRs are.

WR Valuations
Coop Kupp - $20.6M (Ok, a defensible start! maybe this is better!)
Amon-Ra St. Brown - $20.1M
Mike Williams - $20.1M
Darnell Mooney - $18.9M
Brandon Aiyuk - $18.8M
Marvin Jones - $18.2M

Those are the 6 most valuable wide receivers in the NFL according to this methodology. If you agree, and you also think that those are the 6 most valuable WRs in the NFL, you might also think that the Vikings got solid value in this trade.

Let's hear from the man himself Kwesi-Adofo-Mensa
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah & Kevin O'Connell on Trading Down, Resetting the Board for Day 2

"I mean, it's the ultimate irony, right? The guy who used to calculate the charts themselves, now I have people arguing about charts," Adofo-Mensah said. "It's, uh, again, it's the same thing as economics. It's, 'How happy are you with this outcome versus this outcome versus this outcome?'

"You can talk about charts all you want. It's not like you call somebody if you were buying a house and say, 'Hey, it should be worth this.' Well, they might not pay that," Adofo-Mensah added. "Everything is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. We kind of went with this, going into the process, we said, 'OK, what would our happiness level be if we did this trade vs. staying vs. this other trade?'

So he's saying maybe someone disagreed on value - but the matches on trade value show that every other team agreed on the value picks based on the charts. And if you're "The guy who used to calculate the charts themselves", maybe invent a chart that doesn't get yourself robbed. And this implies that may they thought they should / could get more value... as in he knew he was getting fleeced. If you know that, then don't make the trade; it's really that simple.

Last Edit: Apr 29, 2022 14:11:39 GMT -6 by Funkytown

Uncle
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[OC] Comparing Round 1 Trade Values Apr 29, 2022 8:43:05 GMT -6 Reignman, Funkytown, and 2 more like this

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Post by Uncle on Apr 29, 2022 8:43:05 GMT -6

Apr 29, 2022 8:16:45 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

If you know that, then don't make the trade; it's really that simple.

Thanks for putting that together MidwinterViking - I was going to do the same thing today. I was trying to do them in real-time last night, but there so many trades flying around in the latter part of the 1st Rd and some involved players that I wasn't able to get to them all.

There was a response on the Twitter feed to the left last night from Kevin Seifert or someone else (forget exactly who) that we came out "even" or slightly ahead on either PFF's trade value chart or possibly the Pro Football Reference (PFR) chart. I quickly tried to search for the PFF trade value chart and I couldn't find it (I only see one's related to Fantasy Football), but I did see the PFR chart here (link). I was going to try and put together the same thing you did, but use the PFR trade value chart to see if there's any differences between that one and the Rich Hill model from the Drafttek site.

But that last line of your post is really the thought I had - if the value isn't there, then don't do it - and I posted this last night in the Day 1 thread and I still have the same concern: if Kwesi isn't maximizing value in draft day trades, then it's a bit of a concern about what decisions he might make when determining maximizing value in contract extensions, free agents, and other player trades. I will say this about Rick: he definitely made some head-scratching contract extensions (ie, Barr), and player trades (the trades right before the season come to mind - Herndon, etc), but I do think he was somewhat disciplined "most" of the time when it came to getting value and when to pull the trigger and when not to. In free agency, he would put a floor on how much the Vikes can go after certain free agents - for example, we were definitely interested in Joe Thuney in the 2021 offseason, but only at a certain price-point and Thuney ultimately got more from KC. And most of the time in the Draft, he at least received equal or more value in the trades (in terms of draft points) - maybe we didn't like he would trade mid-Rd picks for a whole bunch of late Day 3 picks, but at least the draft pick value worked out most of the time.

This offseason, we've seem some solid free agent deals (Z Smith's contract structure seems like a win for the Vikings team, same w/ Chris Reed's deal), but we've also seen some head-scratchers (no trade clause for Cousins 1-yr extension and all the guaranteed money for Jesse Davis compared to Reed). I came into the Draft with a "even" grade (maybe B- or C+) on Kwesi's performance so far (some deals looked Ok, some not so good), but that trade down in Round 1 left a real sour taste in my mouth and I wanted to see which column to put that in - the "W" column or the "L" column...

Time will ultimately tell obviously, and this has more to do w/ the value of the trade then the selection of Lewis Cine, but I'm leaning on putting the Rd 1 trade down in the "L" column, which makes my opinion of Kwesi lean on the "C" side of the fence at the moment. I'm really hoping for maximizing value on Day's 2 & 3, and bringing in a solid group of UDFA.

skolvikes
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[OC] Comparing Round 1 Trade Values Apr 29, 2022 8:46:50 GMT -6 Reignman, Minniman, and 2 more like this

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Post by skolvikes on Apr 29, 2022 8:46:50 GMT -6

Excellent post. A+ stuff right there.

Even if they are happy with the terms of the trade based off of their own unique imaginary value system, that doesn't mean you can't still push for equal value in the eyes of the other 31 teams in the NFL and the standard that has existed for a long time. This is terrible negotiation skills at its finest. Either that or a new GM not knowing at all wtf they are doing. They missed out on an additional 3rd round pick! This is a huge mess up.

whoskmoon Content Creator Posts: 7,708 Likes: 6,204	[OC] Comparing Round 1 Trade Values Apr 29, 2022 9:30:01 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by whoskmoon on Apr 29, 2022 9:30:01 GMT -6 Very well done. Not sure how anyone defends the move after seeing what you have above in black and white showing that the Vikings were valuing picks differently than every other team in the draft.

Reignman
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[OC] Comparing Round 1 Trade Values Apr 29, 2022 11:22:38 GMT -6 Minniman likes this

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Post by Reignman on Apr 29, 2022 11:22:38 GMT -6

Apr 29, 2022 8:16:45 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

That's not now this works, Kevin. That's not how any of this works. When every other team is clearly using standard trade values, you don't get to invent an imaginary trade value that exists to no other team, then reference that and say "heyyy we won!".

Argumentatively speaking, it's sorta like moving the goal posts. Nick Olson has made a living inventing new charts to fit whatever purple koolaid narrative he's trying to spin that day.

Apr 29, 2022 9:30:01 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Not sure how anyone defends the move after seeing what you have above in black and white showing that the Vikings were valuing picks differently than every other team in the draft.

Anyone else growing concerned this might lead to other GM's trying to take advantage of Kwesi moving forward? He might get overwhelmed with trade offers today lol.

Oct 10, 2021 12:36:51 GMT -6 HunterMorrow said:

Skol Vikings, coinflip the game. Skol Vikings, scoring is lame. Go get a 3-n-out. Then get another 3-n-out. Rock 'em . . . Sock 'em, PUNT! PUNT! PUNT! Go Vikings, run out the clock. You'll hear us yell Kwesi sucks. . . V-I-K-I-N-G-S Skol, Vikings, let's flop!

TAFKASP Hall of Fame Nominee Posts: 9,655 Likes: 8,373	[OC] Comparing Round 1 Trade Values Apr 29, 2022 12:13:56 GMT -6 via mobile Norseman and gophersturf10 like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by TAFKASP on Apr 29, 2022 12:13:56 GMT -6 All this b*tching and moaning has me fighting the urge to go all spence on you peeps!LOL
	Last Edit: Apr 29, 2022 12:14:12 GMT -6 by TAFKASP sudo dnf install beer

Jor-El
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[OC] Comparing Round 1 Trade Values Apr 29, 2022 13:37:31 GMT -6 comet52 likes this

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Post by Jor-El on Apr 29, 2022 13:37:31 GMT -6

The organization and defenders of the trade are essentially saying, "the trade value isn't constant and it shifts depending on the demand of partners interested in trading." In other words, it's like the cost of a pint of strawberries - it gets lower when the season is in peak and plenty of people selling them.

OK, that's well and good. But if you have strawberries going to rot in a week, you need to sell them today. But: did they NEED to sell the #12 pick in the draft?? To me, there is nothing apparent which forced the Vikings to trade down, but their rationalization only works if so. "If we didn't take Detroit's deal then someone behind us would" - so, who cares what Detroit and some other team do after you? It only matters if the Vikings were hunting for a trade-down package, and they were afraid Detroit's offer was the only one they would get. This tells me:
1. The Vikings' primary plan was to trade down, and
2. They were trying to move the #12 pick and no one was making an offer except Detroit.

Know what happens when you sell something in an auction and only one person bids?? If not, you saw it last night. Your pricing (the trade value chart in this case) is unilaterally set by the buyer, and is as low as they want.

Another way to look at it: the Vikings were not taking bids for their pick, they were bidding on an opportunity to trade down. So they were the ones competing against other teams to get Detroit's lame offer. KAM used our high draft position to buy an extra 3rd-round pick. Why did he want that so badly? Does he have his eye on not one, but two, sleeper superstars both expected to go in the top half of round 3? Or is it just a "we need quantity more than quality" attitude?

Last Edit: Apr 29, 2022 13:38:18 GMT -6 by Jor-El

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 64,844 Likes: 28,853 Fan Since: 1998	[OC] Comparing Round 1 Trade Values Apr 29, 2022 14:21:21 GMT -6 Danchat likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Apr 29, 2022 14:21:21 GMT -6 Opposing views, but thought were both worth sharing:

Raptorman
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[OC] Comparing Round 1 Trade Values Apr 29, 2022 14:22:32 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by Raptorman on Apr 29, 2022 14:22:32 GMT -6

Apr 29, 2022 13:37:31 GMT -6 Jor-El said:

The organization and defenders of the trade are essentially saying, "the trade value isn't constant and it shifts depending on the demand of partners interested in trading." In other words, it's like the cost of a pint of strawberries - it gets lower when the season is in peak and plenty of people selling them.

OK, that's well and good. But if you have strawberries going to rot in a week, you need to sell them today. But: did they NEED to sell the #12 pick in the draft?? To me, there is nothing apparent which forced the Vikings to trade down, but their rationalization only works if so. "If we didn't take Detroit's deal then someone behind us would" - so, who cares what Detroit and some other team do after you? It only matters if the Vikings were hunting for a trade-down package, and they were afraid Detroit's offer was the only one they would get. This tells me:
1. The Vikings' primary plan was to trade down, and
2. They were trying to move the #12 pick and no one was making an offer except Detroit.

Know what happens when you sell something in an auction and only one person bids?? If not, you saw it last night. Your pricing (the trade value chart in this case) is unilaterally set by the buyer, and is as low as they want.

Another way to look at it: the Vikings were not taking bids for their pick, they were bidding on an opportunity to trade down. So they were the ones competing against other teams to get Detroit's lame offer. KAM used our high draft position to buy an extra 3rd-round pick. Why did he want that so badly? Does he have his eye on not one, but two, sleeper superstars both expected to go in the top half of round 3? Or is it just a "we need quantity more than quality" attitude?

Doesn’t matter. He needs to go.

If you have to be a leader, lead like Shackleton.

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 64,844 Likes: 28,853 Fan Since: 1998	[OC] Comparing Round 1 Trade Values Apr 29, 2022 14:24:44 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Apr 29, 2022 14:24:44 GMT -6 A couple of things from r/minnesotavikings:
	Last Edit: Apr 29, 2022 14:40:39 GMT -6 by Funkytown

Norseman
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[OC] Comparing Round 1 Trade Values Apr 29, 2022 14:26:34 GMT -6

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Post by Norseman on Apr 29, 2022 14:26:34 GMT -6

Apr 29, 2022 13:37:31 GMT -6 Jor-El said:

Does he have his eye on not one, but two, sleeper superstars both expected to go in the top half of round 3? Or is it just a "we need quantity more than quality" attitude?

We still need IOL x 2, and the third round is often considered the "sweet" spot for picking them. Also, thanks to our former bonehead GM, we don't have a fourth.

"There is no one most valuable Viking. There are 40 most valuable Vikings" - Joe Kapp upon refusing to accept the team MVP award

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[OC] Comparing Round 1 Trade Values Apr 29, 2022 14:34:19 GMT -6 Reignman and HunterMorrow like this

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Post by Danchat on Apr 29, 2022 14:34:19 GMT -6

If the Vikings' trade down is "a heist", then every single other trade-down has been a "heist", because they all provided far better value. And then what do you call getting 2 3rds for moving down from 14 to 23 last year? A galaxy-brained space heist?!

Jor-El
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[OC] Comparing Round 1 Trade Values Apr 29, 2022 14:38:04 GMT -6

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Post by Jor-El on Apr 29, 2022 14:38:04 GMT -6

Apr 29, 2022 14:22:32 GMT -6 Raptorman said:

Apr 29, 2022 13:37:31 GMT -6 Jor-El said:

The organization and defenders of the trade are essentially saying, "the trade value isn't constant and it shifts depending on the demand of partners interested in trading." In other words, it's like the cost of a pint of strawberries - it gets lower when the season is in peak and plenty of people selling them.

OK, that's well and good. But if you have strawberries going to rot in a week, you need to sell them today. But: did they NEED to sell the #12 pick in the draft?? To me, there is nothing apparent which forced the Vikings to trade down, but their rationalization only works if so. "If we didn't take Detroit's deal then someone behind us would" - so, who cares what Detroit and some other team do after you? It only matters if the Vikings were hunting for a trade-down package, and they were afraid Detroit's offer was the only one they would get. This tells me:
1. The Vikings' primary plan was to trade down, and
2. They were trying to move the #12 pick and no one was making an offer except Detroit.

Know what happens when you sell something in an auction and only one person bids?? If not, you saw it last night. Your pricing (the trade value chart in this case) is unilaterally set by the buyer, and is as low as they want.

Another way to look at it: the Vikings were not taking bids for their pick, they were bidding on an opportunity to trade down. So they were the ones competing against other teams to get Detroit's lame offer. KAM used our high draft position to buy an extra 3rd-round pick. Why did he want that so badly? Does he have his eye on not one, but two, sleeper superstars both expected to go in the top half of round 3? Or is it just a "we need quantity more than quality" attitude?

Doesn’t matter. He needs to go.

Ohhhh, let me stress: I am not defending what they did, only trying to explain it.

Making trades in desperation is a terrible way to run a team. If the Vikings were truly openly trying to dump the #12 pick, isn't that as bad as if they were trying to trade a player in desperation? When everyone knows you really really want to sell/trade an asset, its value plummets.

Norseman Veteran Minimum Posts: 6,895 Likes: 4,328 Fan Since: Kapp was king	[OC] Comparing Round 1 Trade Values Apr 29, 2022 14:57:57 GMT -6 Jor-El likes this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Norseman on Apr 29, 2022 14:57:57 GMT -6 Apr 29, 2022 14:38:04 GMT -6 Jor-El said: When everyone knows you really really want to sell/trade an asset, its value plummets. Ref: Baker Mayfield.
	"There is no one most valuable Viking. There are 40 most valuable Vikings" - Joe Kapp upon refusing to accept the team MVP award

Raptorman
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[OC] Comparing Round 1 Trade Values Apr 29, 2022 15:16:34 GMT -6 Norseman likes this

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Post by Raptorman on Apr 29, 2022 15:16:34 GMT -6

Did you all ever think that maybe he has his own chart? Holy Crap! No! He can't possibly know what he is doing. It's obvious from the trade last night. Maybe he's doing it the "Kwasi way" instead of the way everyone else is doing it. Lead, follow, or get out of the way. Maybe for once, we have a GM who is leading the changes in how things are done. Nope, can't have that. That would be, well, inconvenient for the fans.

If you have to be a leader, lead like Shackleton.