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[OC] Scripted Opening Drives

By Reignman May 29, 2022 18:52:32 GMT -6 12 Replies

This topic came up in MidwinterViking 's recent [OC] 2021 Game-By-Game Replay - Game 4 vs CLE thread, and I felt it deserved a thread of its own. It was a popular narrative all last season and continues to be, so let's see if we can support our pattern recognition with some cold, hard numbers regarding the scripted opening drives.

                          CMP  ATT   PCT   YDS   AVG  TD IN RATING  DRV  PLY   YDS   FD    TOP  TD  FG PNT DWN  TO 3nO  PTS
Scripted Opening Drives:   41   55  74.5   533  9.69   5  0  134.9   16   99   635   29   3037   5   4   7   0   0   3   44
Middle of Game:           220  345  63.8  2351  6.81  20  5   96.9  132  714  3618  213  19525  29  22  53   6  10  40  291
4th Quarter:              111  161  68.9  1337  8.30   8  2  105.5   50  308  1771   90   7654  10  12  18   4   3  14   90

Average per drive:

                           PLY   YDS    FD   TOP    TD    FG   PUNT  DOWN   TO    3nO   PTS
Scripted Opening Drives:  6.19  39.69  1.81  3:10  0.31  0.25  0.44  0.00  0.00  0.19  2.75
Middle of Game:           5.41  27.41  1.61  2:28  0.22  0.17  0.40  0.05  0.08  0.30  2.20
4th Quarter:              6.16  35.42  1.80  2:33  0.20  0.24  0.36  0.08  0.06  0.28  1.80

NFL Avg                   6.04  31.82  1.88  2:48  0.23  0.17  0.35  0.07  0.14  0.26  2.05

Pattern recognition confirmed. Field-goal drives include both makes and misses (attempts) because it's not the offense's fault if the kicker misses.

And here are the game-by-game results.

Scripted opening drives, Cousins' passing and drive summary:

        PASSING    PLY YDS FD   TOP  RESULT PTS
at CIN  4/5  38      6  14  1  4:07  punt     0
at ARZ  1/1  64      2  75  1  0:44  TD       7
   SEA  5/5  62      7  70  4  3:49  TD       7
   CLE  6/6  59     14  75  6  7:34  TD       7
   DET  3/6  55     10  55  2  4:04  FG       3
at CAR  2/3  20      7  16  1  2:56  FG       3
   bye
   DAL  3/3  54      7  75  3  3:11  TD       7
at BAL  2/2  56      5  79  3  2:02  TD       7
at LOC  3/4  19      6  27  2  3:25  punt     0
   GRB  2/2  48      7  42  1  4:03  FG       3
at SAF  0/2   0      3   4  0  0:50  punt     0
at DET  2/3  19      6  32  2  2:59  punt     0
   PIT  3/4  21      7  40  2  3:17  miss FG  0
at CHI  2/3   8      6  20  1  3:34  punt     0
   LOR  2/4   7      3   8  0  2:03  punt     0
at GRB  2/3  18      5  19  1  2:42  downs    0 <--- Mannion
   CHI  1/2   3      3   3  0  1:59  punt     0


Cousins 41/55 533 5 TD 0 INT 134.9 rating

The narrative holds up for the first part of the season, but it looks like the Klint and Kirk magic ran out in the second half of the season. There were no opening-drive touchdowns after the Baltimore game. Overall, Cousins still had a 134.9 quarterback rating on scripted opening drives.

Now for the fourth quarter. For Cousins, it's strictly fourth-quarter stats, but for the drive data the drive either had to mostly happen in the fourth quarter or it had to begin in the fourth quarter. So, if a drive started with five minutes to go in the third and ended with a touchdown at the beginning of the fourth, it's not included.

       CMP/ATT YDS TD IN    DRV PLY YDS FD   TOP TD FG PU DW TO 3nO  PTS
at CIN  12/16  132  0  0     3  22  127  8  8:04  1  1  1  0  0  1    10
at ARZ   7/11   69  0  0     3  15   80  4  5:21  0  1  2  0  0  2     3
   SEA   5/6    46  0  0     2  18  104  5  9:13  0  1  1  0  0  0     3
   CLE   8/19   92  0  1     5  29  146  7  8:56  0  0  2  1  1  1     0
   DET   9/12  103  0  0     5  25  110  5  8:49  0  3  1  0  1  2     6
at CAR   8/11  116  0  0     4  23  162  6  9:20  0  3  1  0  0  1     3
   bye
   DAL   8/12   42  0  0     4  21   68  5  8:26  0  1  2  1  0  2     3
at BAL   5/8    51  1  0     2  13   72  4  4:00  1  0  1  0  0  1     7
at LOC   6/7    84  0  0     2  22  104  7 11:40  1  0  0  0  0  0     7
   GRB   9/13  116  1  0     2  20  143  9  7:40  1  1  0  0  0  0    11
at SAF   6/12   60  0  0     2  18  102  5  7:16  0  0  0  2  0  0     0
at DET   9/10   87  2  0     3  20  107  8 10:12  2  0  1  0  0  0     6
   PIT   3/6    91  1  1     4  18  120  4  8:48  1  0  2  0  1  1     7
at CHI   1/3    13  0  0     3  12   33  1  7:04  0  0  3  0  0  2     0
   LOR   9/11  136  1  0     2  15  124  7  4:47  1  1  0  0  0  0    10
at GRB   5/10   43  0  0     2  10   48  2  2:46  0  0  1  1  0  1     0  <-- Mannion/Mond
   CHI   6/4    99  2  0     4  17  169  5  7:58  2  0  1  0  0  1    14

Cousins 111/161 1337 8 TD 2 INT 105.5 rating

So, the question is: Why did the offense so consistently disappear in the middle of games for long periods of time?

I don't believe it was simply Zimmer taking his foot off the gas until he needed it again in the fourth quarter. Cousins averaged nearly three full yards more per attempt on opening drives than he did in the second and third quarters. I would argue it was a combination of Zimmer wanting the offense to take its foot off the gas, Klint calling a more conservative game, and Cousins being mandated to be more careful with the ball and thus becoming a checkdown factory.

[OC] Scripted Opening Drives

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Reignman
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[OC] Scripted Opening Drives May 29, 2022 18:52:32 GMT -6 Funkytown, diehardtwinsfan, and 3 more like this

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Post by Reignman on May 29, 2022 18:52:32 GMT -6

                          CMP  ATT   PCT   YDS   AVG  TD IN RATING  DRV  PLY   YDS   FD    TOP  TD  FG PNT DWN  TO 3nO  PTS
Scripted Opening Drives:   41   55  74.5   533  9.69   5  0  134.9   16   99   635   29   3037   5   4   7   0   0   3   44
Middle of Game:           220  345  63.8  2351  6.81  20  5   96.9  132  714  3618  213  19525  29  22  53   6  10  40  291
4th Quarter:              111  161  68.9  1337  8.30   8  2  105.5   50  308  1771   90   7654  10  12  18   4   3  14   90

Average per drive:

                           PLY   YDS    FD   TOP    TD    FG   PUNT  DOWN   TO    3nO   PTS
Scripted Opening Drives:  6.19  39.69  1.81  3:10  0.31  0.25  0.44  0.00  0.00  0.19  2.75
Middle of Game:           5.41  27.41  1.61  2:28  0.22  0.17  0.40  0.05  0.08  0.30  2.20
4th Quarter:              6.16  35.42  1.80  2:33  0.20  0.24  0.36  0.08  0.06  0.28  1.80

NFL Avg                   6.04  31.82  1.88  2:48  0.23  0.17  0.35  0.07  0.14  0.26  2.05

        PASSING    PLY YDS FD   TOP  RESULT PTS
at CIN  4/5  38      6  14  1  4:07  punt     0
at ARZ  1/1  64      2  75  1  0:44  TD       7
   SEA  5/5  62      7  70  4  3:49  TD       7
   CLE  6/6  59     14  75  6  7:34  TD       7
   DET  3/6  55     10  55  2  4:04  FG       3
at CAR  2/3  20      7  16  1  2:56  FG       3
   bye
   DAL  3/3  54      7  75  3  3:11  TD       7
at BAL  2/2  56      5  79  3  2:02  TD       7
at LOC  3/4  19      6  27  2  3:25  punt     0
   GRB  2/2  48      7  42  1  4:03  FG       3
at SAF  0/2   0      3   4  0  0:50  punt     0
at DET  2/3  19      6  32  2  2:59  punt     0
   PIT  3/4  21      7  40  2  3:17  miss FG  0
at CHI  2/3   8      6  20  1  3:34  punt     0
   LOR  2/4   7      3   8  0  2:03  punt     0
at GRB  2/3  18      5  19  1  2:42  downs    0 <--- Mannion
   CHI  1/2   3      3   3  0  1:59  punt     0


Cousins 41/55 533 5 TD 0 INT 134.9 rating

       CMP/ATT YDS TD IN    DRV PLY YDS FD   TOP TD FG PU DW TO 3nO  PTS
at CIN  12/16  132  0  0     3  22  127  8  8:04  1  1  1  0  0  1    10
at ARZ   7/11   69  0  0     3  15   80  4  5:21  0  1  2  0  0  2     3
   SEA   5/6    46  0  0     2  18  104  5  9:13  0  1  1  0  0  0     3
   CLE   8/19   92  0  1     5  29  146  7  8:56  0  0  2  1  1  1     0
   DET   9/12  103  0  0     5  25  110  5  8:49  0  3  1  0  1  2     6
at CAR   8/11  116  0  0     4  23  162  6  9:20  0  3  1  0  0  1     3
   bye
   DAL   8/12   42  0  0     4  21   68  5  8:26  0  1  2  1  0  2     3
at BAL   5/8    51  1  0     2  13   72  4  4:00  1  0  1  0  0  1     7
at LOC   6/7    84  0  0     2  22  104  7 11:40  1  0  0  0  0  0     7
   GRB   9/13  116  1  0     2  20  143  9  7:40  1  1  0  0  0  0    11
at SAF   6/12   60  0  0     2  18  102  5  7:16  0  0  0  2  0  0     0
at DET   9/10   87  2  0     3  20  107  8 10:12  2  0  1  0  0  0     6
   PIT   3/6    91  1  1     4  18  120  4  8:48  1  0  2  0  1  1     7
at CHI   1/3    13  0  0     3  12   33  1  7:04  0  0  3  0  0  2     0
   LOR   9/11  136  1  0     2  15  124  7  4:47  1  1  0  0  0  0    10
at GRB   5/10   43  0  0     2  10   48  2  2:46  0  0  1  1  0  1     0  <-- Mannion/Mond
   CHI   6/4    99  2  0     4  17  169  5  7:58  2  0  1  0  0  1    14

Cousins 111/161 1337 8 TD 2 INT 105.5 rating

Last Edit: Jun 3, 2022 18:25:27 GMT -6 by Funkytown

Oct 10, 2021 12:36:51 GMT -6 HunterMorrow said:

Skol Vikings, coinflip the game. Skol Vikings, scoring is lame. Go get a 3-n-out. Then get another 3-n-out. Rock 'em . . . Sock 'em, PUNT! PUNT! PUNT! Go Vikings, run out the clock. You'll hear us yell Kwesi sucks. . . V-I-K-I-N-G-S Skol, Vikings, let's flop!

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[OC] Scripted Opening Drives May 29, 2022 21:23:47 GMT -6

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Post by Danchat on May 29, 2022 21:23:47 GMT -6

I don't know why I didn't think of doing this earlier, with how good this team's opening drives were. I guess Klint deserves some credit for that! Seems like the passing game improved stats-wise in the 4th quarter, but actually scoring didn't. And I didn't realize that we stopped scoring on opening drives near the end of the year...

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[OC] Scripted Opening Drives May 29, 2022 21:53:58 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on May 29, 2022 21:53:58 GMT -6

May 29, 2022 21:23:47 GMT -6 Danchat said:

I guess Klint deserves some credit for that!

Yeah that begs another question, why couldn't he do it on the fly? Or why didn't he just script more plays lol? Hey I know, lets just script 4 quarters. *woot*

May 29, 2022 21:23:47 GMT -6 Danchat said:

And I didn't realize that we stopped scoring on opening drives near the end of the year

That caught me off guard too. It wasn't just a slight drop off, but the narrative survived anyway.

Oct 10, 2021 12:36:51 GMT -6 HunterMorrow said:

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[OC] Scripted Opening Drives May 30, 2022 2:24:40 GMT -6 Reignman, Will, and 1 more like this

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Post by dauntessmallhands on May 30, 2022 2:24:40 GMT -6

This is really interesting and thank you for sharing.

Does anyone here watch baseball? If not, maybe this analogy won't help as much, but if you do then maybe it will.

The analytics guys have essentially figured out that the more times a pitcher goes through the order, the worse the results tend to be. So in today's game, you just take that pitcher out and put someone new in who the batters haven't seen that night. And what the pitcher tries to do is get through the order by revealing as little as possible those first couple times through. Like holding back on that third pitch until that third time through.

I think the data above could tell us a couple things.
First - for the first few games, the Vikings went to school in anticipation of what they'd see on the first drive and exploited it. Even on a micro level, game 1 - it didn't work. But after that first week, they had film and they made the most of it for awhile until the league went to school on them and they ran out of stuff that no one had seen.

Second - why wasn't it sustainable in the middle of the game? Other teams defenses adjusted better than the Vikings offense. I think it's plain and simple. I've said often that the offense was predictable. If you keep doing the same stuff over and over with the same formations...what do we think happens? Also, ball control. My guess is that if we weren't down by many points, they tried to run time off the clock in the old school way. Minimize the potential for turnovers etc.

Third - why did it get a bit better in the 4th? This is just a guess, but by this time in the game you're either gonna throw a ton because you're down or you know what's working and can keep doing it. Also, it where you're most likely to save your best plays. Again, limited playbook (in my opinion) and you don't give it all away when you can keep things within reach at the end. Do I agree with this? Uh no. Score as many damn points as you can the whole game.

And as an aside related to the third thing, this is why I think we got torched so often at the end of halfs or games on the defensive side. Teams would study on us and keep some very particular plays in their back pockets for just the right situations.

This might be a cherry picked stat, but avg net yards per pass attempt in Q2 and Q3 was 6.7. And in Q1 it was 9.1 and Q4 it was 8.1. Does this mean that they figured us out after the first quarter and that by the 4th we were throwing more because we needed to or is it because we took our foot off the gas and would let teams back in the game when we could have taken control? Either way, I think it's a testament to general stubborness. With the quality of skill players on this offense, we better score close to 500 points this year. At least about 50-60 more than we did in 2021.

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[OC] Scripted Opening Drives May 30, 2022 8:00:07 GMT -6 Reignman and Funkytown like this

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Post by whoskmoon on May 30, 2022 8:00:07 GMT -6

May 29, 2022 18:52:32 GMT -6 Reignman said:

So the question is, why did the offense so consistently disappear in the middle of games for long periods of time? I don't believe it was simply Zimmer taking his foot off the gas until he needed it again in the 4th quarter. Cousins averaged nearly 3 full yards more per attempt on opening drives than he did the 2nd-3rd quarters. I would argue it was a combination of Zimmer wanting the offense to take its foot off the gas, Klint calling a more conservative game, and Cousins being mandated to be more care with the ball and thus becoming a checkdown factory.

To find the answer to this you really should be looking how other teams did in these situations compared to the Vikings. If a QB like Carson Wentz for instance, also had a lot more success in scripted drives versus unscripted ones, then it might be an indicator that part of the issue is having a limited QB. Since Wentz, Cousins, Trey Lance and Case Keenum all saw their best play by far in that spot, a pattern emerges.

The other thing to look at with the QB is whether this was a new phenomenon or if this has been happening for years and it looks like even with McVay as his OC, Kirk was a significantly better QB in 2015 and 2016 in the first half of the 1st quarter than he was in the final 3 quarters.

First half of the 1st 2015-2016:
12 TDs (2nd most in that time period), 7.2 TD%, 3 Ints, 1355 yards (2nd most), 8.1 YPA, 107.2 rating

Last 3 qtrs:
38 TDs, 18 Ints, 6984 yards, 4.1 TD%, 7.6 YPA, 93.8 rating

A lot of great QBs do better on those scripted drives then they do the rest of the game, but Rodgers, Mahomes, Brees and Brady don't revert to Bridgewater level QB play like Cousins did throwing behind an elite Oline, to great WRs with one of the best offensive minds in football calling his plays.

QB isn't all of it though. The other thing you need to look at is how the other parts of the offense performed in those early drives versus later. Dalvin Cook for instance, averaged 8.26 YPA in the first half of the 1st compared to 4.12 in the final 3 quarters of the game. That is an insane difference, and while it could be chalked up to a couple of big runs skewing he sample size, I don't think you can ignore the impact that might have.

The unit that was NOT better in that time period was the Olin, giving up a sack on over 10% of the dropbacks in the first half of the first, compared to 5% in the last 3 quarters.

Finally, as you alluded to there is the coaching factor. I do not believe Zimmer had anything to do with the offense taking their foot off the pedal and that myth really needs to die. Here are some quotes from Zimmer during the season versus quotes from his QB on being aggressive.
Zimmer after the GB game:

“I want (Cousins) to keep doing it like he’s doing it,’’ Zimmer said Monday. “He can’t second-guess himself. If he throws an interception, that’s life. But you keep going for the jugular. It’s going to open up a lot of other areas in the running game. It’s going to open up other players.”

After the LAC game:

"I just told the team, 'We're going to be aggressive,'" he said.

Cousins:

"I could kind of point to a half dozen throws there that were too aggressive and I could argue that that’s one of them, and I don’t think you want to live doing that," Cousins said.

Now, Kirk was absolutely right with his statement, he couldn't keep playing like he did against GB and have success with how many picks should have gone the other way in that game, but this contrast in how the HC vs QB felt about the GB game should put the myth that Zimmer didn't want to be aggressive to bed. HE wasn't the problem.

Kubiak on the other hand? I think there could be an argument made that Kubiak struggled a bit in play calling after the first couple of scripted drives, with it being the first year he called plays. I haven't really seen evidence of that, but with a newer play caller, similar to what we have in the coming season, I could see how they might take a minute to figure things out. That being said, I think Denver is going to really like him as their passing game coordinator since he clearly knows how to create successful drives against just about any defense in the NFL. I expect him to get a shot at being an OC again soon and to be successful when he does get that shot. This coming from someone who absolutely hated the hiring last year.

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[OC] Scripted Opening Drives May 30, 2022 10:09:15 GMT -6 Reignman and MidwinterViking like this

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Post by Danchat on May 30, 2022 10:09:15 GMT -6

May 29, 2022 21:53:58 GMT -6 Reignman said:

Yeah that begs another question, why couldn't he do it on the fly? Or why didn't The just script more plays lol? Hey I know, lets just script 4 quarters. *woot*

I think the Chiefs tried to script entire 1st halves, but since practice time is limited every week, it can be difficult to get all of that scripting in.

I do have a theory - I think the scripted plays were designed well and especially to take advantage of certain weaknesses against the defense they were facing. Once those plays were over, Kubiak fell back to relying on more of the vanilla plays that lacked creativity, allowing the defense to adjust. I saw this because I recall Alex Boone noting several times about how vanilla and bland the play-calling was at points last year, and he thought that the issue with the 3-and-outs could be helped with some better plays.

During the Rams game, Boone noted that LA's play design was far beyond what the Vikings were fielding, and was a big factor in winning that game - so while Boone can be full of hot air sometimes, I'm going to trust his opinion on the topic of play design over mine. Do note that I called this a "part" of the problem, not the whole thing.

Last Edit: May 30, 2022 10:09:53 GMT -6 by Danchat

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[OC] Scripted Opening Drives May 30, 2022 10:39:38 GMT -6 Reignman and suncoastvike like this

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Post by MidwinterViking on May 30, 2022 10:39:38 GMT -6

May 29, 2022 18:52:32 GMT -6 Reignman said:

There's another piece here, the running game.

Cook's yards per carry by quarter:
1st - 6.3
2nd - 3.8
3rd - 4.5
4th - 4.2 (brought down by some carries running out the clock)

That nets out to 5.0 yards per carry in quarters 1+3+4 vs 3.8 in the 2nd quarter.

I also look at the rest of the top 5 backs (Harris, Taylor Mixon, Chubb) and none of them had great 2nd quarters either (although it wasn't always their worst); so this type of game flow might not be that uncommon.

spence Franchise Player Posts: 3,175 Likes: 898	[OC] Scripted Opening Drives May 31, 2022 1:39:01 GMT -6 andhesloose28 and snotbubbles like this Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by spence on May 31, 2022 1:39:01 GMT -6 We will see if it's a coaching issue or something else this year

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[OC] Scripted Opening Drives May 31, 2022 7:07:33 GMT -6 spence likes this

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Post by andhesloose28 on May 31, 2022 7:07:33 GMT -6

May 31, 2022 1:39:01 GMT -6 spence said:

We will see if it's a coaching issue or something else this year

Yeah I agree, we will learn a lot this year on the offense. Kevin is a former QB, hes been around the block as a coach long enough now and was just on a super bowl winning team. Im going to be holding the offense to a very high standard this year even though its his first year as a head coach. Theres no more excuses, unless the Oline is straight up trash, which I dont expect it to be. Should be best we've had in a while, still not great but manageable to where there are no excuses to be made on it. This is a one year trial run, if this team isnt in the divisional round at the very least, it needs to end. Thats Kirk and all the vets. Stop the bleeding and start fresh

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[OC] Scripted Opening Drives May 31, 2022 18:58:40 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on May 31, 2022 18:58:40 GMT -6

May 30, 2022 8:00:07 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

To find the answer to this you really should be looking how other teams did in these situations compared to the Vikings.

You're severely underestimating my desire to be lazy xD. I spent most of my offseason energy on just doing the Vikings here.

Here are the league averages per drive however.

DRV  PLY   NET    FD    PTS
 1  6.59  34.17  2.05  2.13
 2  6.19  32.71  1.93  2.17
 3  6.45  34.70  2.04  2.22
 4  6.07  31.90  1.87  2.00
 5  5.49  29.79  1.73  2.06
 6  5.62  30.41  1.80  2.04
 7  5.79  31.00  1.85  2.08
 8  6.41  35.09  2.04  2.23
 9  6.10  32.64  1.96  2.20
10  6.01  29.30  1.80  2.00
11  5.26  25.48  1.51  1.55
12  5.50  26.25  1.51  1.33

I think that slowdown at the end is mostly due to teams working on the clock. There's evidence of a tiny bit of a slowdown in the middle of games and the opening drive being one of the more successful. Not as much as the Vikings however.

The Chiefs were crazy successful on the opening drive. They averaged 10 plays, 61 yards, and 4 points on the opening drive, and 4.41 first downs. They kept that going on the 2nd drive averaging 3.41 points. Like the Vikings, the Bills were successful on the opening drive but then slowed down the next 4. The Bucs and Rams were all over the place, and the Titans had super slow starts, but got progressively better until halftime, then got off to slow starts again to start the 2nd half. The Bengals might be the wildest team yet. Slow starts like the Titans, but they got better with each drive after until the 4th quarter. The Packers had slow starts too and were hot in the middle.

May 30, 2022 8:00:07 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

If a QB like Carson Wentz for instance, also had a lot more success in scripted drives versus unscripted ones, then it might be an indicator that part of the issue is having a limited QB.

Wentz went 34/55 (61.8%) for 391 yards (7.11), 3 TD's and 0 INT's on the opening drive for a 101.4 rating. Which was pretty much on par with his season totals. As a team, the Colts are better on their 2nd and 3rd drives than the opening drive. And Matt Ryan didn't benefit from the scripted plays.

May 30, 2022 8:00:07 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

The other thing to look at with the QB is whether this was a new phenomenon or if this has been happening for years

For years? Oh man, now you're pushing it.

May 30, 2022 8:00:07 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

QB isn't all of it though. The other thing you need to look at

OMG lady, what's your problem? You're worse than Funkytown at cracking the whip. *whistle*

May 30, 2022 8:00:07 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

First half of the 1st

Where are you getting these first half of the 1st quarter stats?

May 30, 2022 8:00:07 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Now, Kirk was absolutely right with his statement, he couldn't keep playing like he did against GB and have success with how many picks should have gone the other way in that game

I disagree with Kirk there. Yeah you don't want to be throwing INT's, but we do want him to remain aggressive. I hope he's not talking about the aggressiveness. Stafford led the league in INT's, but he didn't let it deter him from remaining aggressive, which is the recipe for success. He won a Super Bowl with a league leading 17 INT's, while Cousins and his 7 INT's (23rd worst) were watching the playoffs from his couch.

May 30, 2022 10:39:38 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

There's another piece here, the running game.

Cook's yards per carry by quarter:
1st - 6.3
2nd - 3.8
3rd - 4.5
4th - 4.2 (brought down by some carries running out the clock)

The run game didn't appear to be all that effective on the opening drive.

        Cook   Mattison
at CIN   1-1      0-0
at ARZ   1-11     0-0
   SEA   0-0      2-8
   CLE   4-17     1-2
   DET   0-0      3-0
at CAR   2--6     0-0
    -      -
   DAL   2-1      0-0
at BAL   1-15     1--3
at LOC   2-8      0-0
   GRB   3-4      0-0
at SAF   1-4      0-0
at DET   0-0      1-5
   PIT   2-24     0-0
at CHI   2-5      0-0
   LOR   0-0      1-1
at GRB   2-6      0-0
   CHI   1-6      0-0

Cook 24 carries 96 yards, no TD's or turnovers. Mattison just 9 carries for 13 yards. Kene had a carry in there for a yard at some point, so 34 carries for 110 yards total for an average of 3.24 YPC. Cook had runs of 20 and 15 yards in there somewhere.

May 30, 2022 2:24:40 GMT -6 dauntessmallhands said:

Does anyone here watch baseball?

Oh gawd no, why would anyone want to do that lol? I used to be a bigger baseball fan than football, but that ended at least 15 years ago when the Twins pretty much became a 4A minor league team, but I still understand your analogy.

May 30, 2022 2:24:40 GMT -6 dauntessmallhands said:

The analytics guys have essentially figured out that the more times a pitcher goes through the order, the worse the results tend to be.

Yeah I never understood why baseball had starters and relievers. Why not just throw a new pitcher out there each inning? Or like you alluded to, don't let a guy go through the order twice. I wonder what the numbers are on that anyway, a starting pitchers 1st time through the order vs the 2nd and 3rd.

May 30, 2022 10:09:15 GMT -6 Danchat said:

I think the Chiefs tried to script entire 1st halves

Well I'd say that's working out for them then lol.

DRV  PLY   NET    FD    PTS
 1 10.00  61.35  4.41  4.00
 2  6.35  40.41  2.41  3.41
 3  6.82  41.00  2.65  2.76
 4  5.82  31.59  1.94  2.41
 5  6.59  36.76  2.29  2.76
 6  7.00  46.82  2.53  2.94
 7  6.24  32.29  1.94  2.53
 8  6.88  39.71  2.24  2.47
 9  7.27  33.80  2.33  2.00
10  5.55  30.82  1.91  1.82

Oddly enough, the NFL TD% remains relatively consistent throughout a game, while the 3-n-out pct gets progressively better each drive. I guess the scripts are hit or miss lol.

DRV  TD%   3nO%
 1  24.63  27.21
 2  24.82  24.82
 3  24.08  23.35
 4  21.51  24.26
 5  22.79  21.69
 6  22.43  20.40
 7  24.26  24.08
 8  24.35  19.00
 9  24.71  19.31
10  21.32  19.95
11  17.57  16.93
12  13.95  13.37
13  16.46   8.86

Last Edit: May 31, 2022 19:01:55 GMT -6 by Reignman

Oct 10, 2021 12:36:51 GMT -6 HunterMorrow said:

MidwinterViking
Veteran

Posts: 1,439
Likes: 2,125

[OC] Scripted Opening Drives May 31, 2022 20:08:51 GMT -6

Quote

Post by MidwinterViking on May 31, 2022 20:08:51 GMT -6

May 30, 2022 10:09:15 GMT -6 Danchat said:

May 29, 2022 21:53:58 GMT -6 Reignman said:

Yeah that begs another question, why couldn't he do it on the fly? Or why didn't The just script more plays lol? Hey I know, lets just script 4 quarters. *woot*

This lines up with some of what I'm seeing in the weekly reviews. Plays like screen and quick passes that should be misdirecting the defense or catching them out of position are not, in fact, misdirecting them. This made me go look at the depth of target splits on PFF for Cousins for 2021:

On Deep Throws:
96.2 PFF score - 4th in the league behind Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Tom Brady

On Intermediate Throws:
93.1 PFF Score - 4th in the league behind Joe Burrow, Derek Carr, Matt Ryan

On Short Throws:
72.9 PFF Score - 20th in the league in between Tyler Hundley and Joe Flacco [barfs]

This kind of makes sense, if the play is there downfield, Cousins will make the pass. Since this is just a rating on pass depth, I don't think it would account for sacks / pressure / throws not taken that could bring down his overall performance. Justin Jefferson can just flat out get open, so for him it's a matter of winning 1:1. Thielen is a masterful route runner. And KJ Osborn can... run deep past single coverage (and a lot more, he's actually looking pretty good in reviews). That raises the question on what we can expect for 2022 - is Cousins just bad at those short throws or was it Kubiak's offense? Looking back at Cousins PFF rank on short throws over the past few years:
2018 - 8th
2019 - 6th
2020 - 6th
2021 - 20th

This is more evidence that Klint Kubiak is a complete failson who's only qualification for being an NFL offenseive coordinator is sharing a last name with Gary.

whoskmoon
Content Creator

Posts: 7,708
Likes: 6,204

[OC] Scripted Opening Drives Jun 1, 2022 5:51:30 GMT -6

Quote

Post by whoskmoon on Jun 1, 2022 5:51:30 GMT -6

May 31, 2022 20:08:51 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

This is more evidence that Klint Kubiak is a complete failson who's only qualification for being an NFL offenseive coordinator is sharing a last name with Gary.

PFF grades wouldn't be impacted by play design on short throws. If Cousins threw a perfect pass on a screen play that went for 1 yard, he would be graded positively for it.

whoskmoon
Content Creator

Posts: 7,708
Likes: 6,204

[OC] Scripted Opening Drives Jun 1, 2022 6:00:12 GMT -6

Quote

Post by whoskmoon on Jun 1, 2022 6:00:12 GMT -6

May 31, 2022 18:58:40 GMT -6 Reignman said:

May 30, 2022 8:00:07 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

To find the answer to this you really should be looking how other teams did in these situations compared to the Vikings.

You're severely underestimating my desire to be lazy xD. I spent most of my offseason energy on just doing the Vikings here.

Here are the league averages per drive however.

DRV  PLY   NET    FD    PTS
 1  6.59  34.17  2.05  2.13
 2  6.19  32.71  1.93  2.17
 3  6.45  34.70  2.04  2.22
 4  6.07  31.90  1.87  2.00
 5  5.49  29.79  1.73  2.06
 6  5.62  30.41  1.80  2.04
 7  5.79  31.00  1.85  2.08
 8  6.41  35.09  2.04  2.23
 9  6.10  32.64  1.96  2.20
10  6.01  29.30  1.80  2.00
11  5.26  25.48  1.51  1.55
12  5.50  26.25  1.51  1.33

May 30, 2022 8:00:07 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

If a QB like Carson Wentz for instance, also had a lot more success in scripted drives versus unscripted ones, then it might be an indicator that part of the issue is having a limited QB.

May 30, 2022 8:00:07 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

The other thing to look at with the QB is whether this was a new phenomenon or if this has been happening for years

For years? Oh man, now you're pushing it.

May 30, 2022 8:00:07 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

QB isn't all of it though. The other thing you need to look at

OMG lady, what's your problem? You're worse than Funkytown at cracking the whip. *whistle*

May 30, 2022 8:00:07 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

First half of the 1st

Where are you getting these first half of the 1st quarter stats?

May 30, 2022 8:00:07 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Now, Kirk was absolutely right with his statement, he couldn't keep playing like he did against GB and have success with how many picks should have gone the other way in that game

May 30, 2022 10:39:38 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

There's another piece here, the running game.

Cook's yards per carry by quarter:
1st - 6.3
2nd - 3.8
3rd - 4.5
4th - 4.2 (brought down by some carries running out the clock)

The run game didn't appear to be all that effective on the opening drive.

        Cook   Mattison
at CIN   1-1      0-0
at ARZ   1-11     0-0
   SEA   0-0      2-8
   CLE   4-17     1-2
   DET   0-0      3-0
at CAR   2--6     0-0
    -      -
   DAL   2-1      0-0
at BAL   1-15     1--3
at LOC   2-8      0-0
   GRB   3-4      0-0
at SAF   1-4      0-0
at DET   0-0      1-5
   PIT   2-24     0-0
at CHI   2-5      0-0
   LOR   0-0      1-1
at GRB   2-6      0-0
   CHI   1-6      0-0

May 30, 2022 2:24:40 GMT -6 dauntessmallhands said:

Does anyone here watch baseball?

May 30, 2022 2:24:40 GMT -6 dauntessmallhands said:

The analytics guys have essentially figured out that the more times a pitcher goes through the order, the worse the results tend to be.

May 30, 2022 10:09:15 GMT -6 Danchat said:

I think the Chiefs tried to script entire 1st halves

Well I'd say that's working out for them then lol.

DRV  PLY   NET    FD    PTS
 1 10.00  61.35  4.41  4.00
 2  6.35  40.41  2.41  3.41
 3  6.82  41.00  2.65  2.76
 4  5.82  31.59  1.94  2.41
 5  6.59  36.76  2.29  2.76
 6  7.00  46.82  2.53  2.94
 7  6.24  32.29  1.94  2.53
 8  6.88  39.71  2.24  2.47
 9  7.27  33.80  2.33  2.00
10  5.55  30.82  1.91  1.82

Oddly enough, the NFL TD% remains relatively consistent throughout a game, while the 3-n-out pct gets progressively better each drive. I guess the scripts are hit or miss lol.

DRV  TD%   3nO%
 1  24.63  27.21
 2  24.82  24.82
 3  24.08  23.35
 4  21.51  24.26
 5  22.79  21.69
 6  22.43  20.40
 7  24.26  24.08
 8  24.35  19.00
 9  24.71  19.31
10  21.32  19.95
11  17.57  16.93
12  13.95  13.37
13  16.46   8.86

You are operating under the assumption that opening drives are the only ones scripted, when that isn't the case. For instance, if a team has a short opening drive because one of their scripted plays goes wrong (penalty, sack, poor throw or dropped pass on third down) they will go back to the script on the next drive. That is why I use the first half of the first: tinyurl.com/2p8zpb29

Here you see that I was correct that Wentz, Lance, Keenum, Cousins and Tyrod Taylor had a lot of success on scripted drives versus the rest of the game. I never said Ryan benefitted, and you are correct that he was really bad in that spot.

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Mar 11, 2024 16:34:20 GMT -6

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For Vikings to actually pull this off they probably have to trade #11, #23 and 2025 first rounder. In return, they hopefully get #3 overall this year and NE's Mar 15, 2024 19:29:01 GMT -6

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[OC] Scripted Opening Drives

[OC] Scripted Opening Drives

Post by Reignman on May 29, 2022 18:52:32 GMT -6

Post by Danchat on May 29, 2022 21:23:47 GMT -6

Post by Reignman on May 29, 2022 21:53:58 GMT -6

Post by dauntessmallhands on May 30, 2022 2:24:40 GMT -6

Post by whoskmoon on May 30, 2022 8:00:07 GMT -6

Post by Danchat on May 30, 2022 10:09:15 GMT -6

Post by MidwinterViking on May 30, 2022 10:39:38 GMT -6

Post by spence on May 31, 2022 1:39:01 GMT -6

Post by andhesloose28 on May 31, 2022 7:07:33 GMT -6

Post by Reignman on May 31, 2022 18:58:40 GMT -6

Post by MidwinterViking on May 31, 2022 20:08:51 GMT -6

Post by whoskmoon on Jun 1, 2022 5:51:30 GMT -6

Post by whoskmoon on Jun 1, 2022 6:00:12 GMT -6

Shoutbox