Purple Pain Original Content

Welcome one and all to my sixth annual Guide to the Offseason Article! In previous years in this article, I’ve stated my plans on how I would make the Vikings a Super Bowl contender. Every year I projected aggressive free agent signings and pushed for spending the big bucks to re-sign key free agents while pressing up against the salary cap. This year will be different, however. It is time…




TO BLOW IT UP!!!!






This is the first time I’ll be blowing up the roster in any of my offseason guides, so we’re going to go all the way here. This is going to be a full rebuild – this roster is getting blown down to the studs! The goal will be to move veteran players off the roster and only retain players who will be useful to contend in the future. I’m going to make no attempts to field a competitive roster in 2021. This will be written under the assumption that Spielman and Zimmer would be fired and a brand new coaching staff would be installed.


We are currently projected to have a $181M salary cap, which turns out to be $185.4M with the cap leftovers from 2020. That puts us at -$8.2M, which is less than ideal. Once I’m done with this roster, there will be room, trust me!


Current Roster Setup:





Releases / Cuts


TE Kyle Rudolph (saves $5.1M, leaves $4.3M of dead cap)


The Rudolph extension was a puzzling one from Day 1, as Irv Smith Jr. was drafted to be his replacement. Making him as the 6th highest paid TE in the league was even more puzzling. Cousins didn’t target Rudolph close to as much as previous Viking QBs had before, and that trend didn’t change in 2019 or 2020. Smith Jr. outplayed him, and even Tyler Conklin made more of an impact once Rudy got hurt. There is no reason to retain Rudolph with the two aforementioned TEs still on their rookie deals. This was a blatant waste of money from the get-go.



DT Shamar Stephen (Saves $3.75M, leaves $1.33M of dead cap)


Another baffling move from the 2019 offseason, Stephen was brought back into the Vikings’ system after spending a year in Seattle and was handed the 3 technique job despite not being able to rush the passer whatsoever. To nobody’s surprise, he flunked hard, and was then given the nose tackle job in 2020. He wasn’t a horrible run stuffer, but he was still below-average and also brought zero pass rushing ability. Stephen is a backup NT at best and certainly doesn’t deserve being paid over $5M in 2021.



K Dan Bailey (Saves $1.7M, leaves $2.1M of dead cap)


Right when the Vikings thought they had fixed Bailey following a very strong 2019 season, he immediately reversed back to his 2017/18 self and began to melt down. Even after he was spared the chopping block following the atrocious Tampa game, he still faltered more down the stretch. This team handles special teams terribly, and at this point I don’t know what they can do to fix their curious ailment. The one move I can recommend strongly is cutting Bailey ASAP.



P Britton Colquitt (Saves $1.78M, leaves $1.4M of dead cap)


With the rest of the special teams units self-destructing, Colquitt had a very poor season that went under-the-radar. While the net punt yardage was bad because mostly because of the punt coverage, Colquitt finished in the lower half for punting distance and also gave too many chances for returns. PFF ranked him as the 2nd worst punter in 2020. There is no need for a mediocre punter who’s turning 36 on my rebuild.



G Dru Samia (Saves $665K, leaves $368K of dead cap)


He will likely be a cut at the end of the 2021 preseason, but I’d prefer to get his contract off the books now. Samia’s play at right guard was simply abysmal. In 4 starts he gave up as many sacks and hits (3 and 4) as RT O’Neill did on the whole year, plus another 14 pressures. He even drew 4 penalties in the Seattle game. Spielman traded up for this guy in the 4th round of the 2019 draft… yikes, 2019 was full of bad decisions.



DE Jalyn Holmes (Saves $920K, leaves $183K of dead cap)


Holmes went from likely not making the team to becoming a starting DE once Ngakoue was traded, and he flopped really hard. Providing zero sacks and suboptimal run defense, Holmes is a practice squad-caliber player. Like Samia, he’s another failed 4th round pick.



Current cap room: $5.72M




Re-signing Our Free Agents


DE Ifeadi Odenigbo (RFA) – 2nd round tender of $3.38M


It was a weird year for Ifeadi, as he went from the likely #2 DE to Hunter, to #3 upon the Ngakoue trade, and then rose to #1 after Hunter’s injury and Ngakoue’s trade. He completely failed to live up to his 7 sack 2019 season, only posting 3.5, but he was still providing pressures at a decent rate. He’s with $3.38M as a part-time rotational rusher, and I think his numbers will improve with Hunter’s return, along with the removal of deadbeat D-linemen who did nothing to assist him.



C Brett Jones – 1 year, $1M


Constantly being shoved between the active roster and the practice squad, Jones managed to start 2 games at RG and wasn’t terrible. He’s a fine backup center/guard who should sign at the veteran minimum.




Players Being Let Go


Usually I re-sign many players, but since I’m committing to the rebuild and there aren’t many key players leaving in free agency, I see little reason to retain these guys. My rationale on them:



FS Anthony Harris


He was expected to leave in free agency in 2020, but the Vikings surprisingly franchise-tagged him. This move didn’t pan out, as he regressed into an above average safety after having elite 2018 and 2019 seasons. Harris cost himself some money by having a decent year, and he’ll be turning 30 already. It’s a disappointing end for a former UDFA who came out of nowhere and became the NFL’s best free safety for a little while.



OLB Eric Wilson


Wilson got to be a full-time starter for the first time in his career when Barr went down, and he did well. He proved to be a playmaker, providing 3 picks, 3 sacks, 1 FF, and 122 combined tackles. He’s a speedy LB who was able to hang with many HBs/TEs in coverage. However, he’s a fairly big liability in the run stopping department, and his small frame is not build to go up against linemen. This firmly puts him in a coverage LB niche, which is a role that will get him paid, but it’s not one I’m looking to fill. He’s not a true replacement to Barr, but if used right he will be a nice weapon for someone else’s defense to use.



OLB Todd Davis


Freshly cut from Denver after 4 years of starting as an interior LB, Davis landed with the Vikings and started 6 games. He was an average run stopper, which is something this team lacks, but he’s also a very poor cover guy. He was available for a minimum deal for this reason, and a 29 year old run-stopping only LB isn’t much of a commodity these days.



T Rashod Hill


Hill only ended up starting Week 17 due to Reiff catching COVID, but whenever he checked into the lineup, he played well. He’s seemingly come a ways since he bungled the RT job at the start of the 2018 season. He hit free agency last year and received little attention, but perhaps he’ll get more bites this offseason.



G Dakota Dozier


The Vikings couldn’t get rid of Dozier quickly enough. He was terrible week in and out, ranking as PFF’s worst guard (who played enough snaps, else Samia would have won that title). He gave up a whopping 46 pressures, 6 sacks, 9 QB hits, and 9 penalties. How much longer can the Vikings ignore the guard situation?!



HB Ameer Abdullah


A middling 3rd down HB, Abdullah was the primary kick returner once Osborn got benched, and took 15 kicks for a paltry 23.5 average return. He’ll be turning 28, and his roster spot could be well-used elsewhere on this roster.



QB Sean Mannion


He’s one of the worst backup QBs in the NFL and provides virtually no upside. Next!



MLB Hardy Nickerson


The former Bengal LB was a waiver wire pickup and ended up catching a lucky interception and even generated 2 forced fumbles (1 on special teams). He’s not worth rostering again.



SS George Iloka


Replacing Harrison Smith in the 2nd half of the Houston game due to Harry’s mid-game suspension, Iloka was torn apart by DeShaun Watson and gave up tons of yardage in coverage. He wasn’t rostered in 2019, and we found out why. He even tore his ACL in a practice mid-season. Iloka was clearly past his prime, but Zimmer can’t resist rostering mediocre veterans that played in his system before.



DT Jaleel Johnson


I liked the selection of Johnson in the 4th round of the 2017 draft, but his best play came in the preseason. He was plugged into the 3 technique job in 2020 and graded out as PFF’s worst starting DL in the entire NFL. He provided no pass rush and was consistently pushed back in run support. He’ll be probably be a practice squadee at best. Yet another wasted 4th round pick.



HB Mike Boone (RFA)


Boone has looked great whenever he’s gotten the chance to touch the ball, but those opportunities come very rarely. He’s averaged 5.3 YPC and is a dynamic threat as a receiver, too. He even ran for 148 yards on Chicago’s defense with the Vikings’ backup offense in (he did also have a bad fumble and caused an interception). With Cook extended and Mattison drafted, I can’t justify bringing Boone back. I hope another team will use him properly.



WR Chad Beebe (RFA)


The Vikings’ starting slot receiver, Beebe was given a small role (314 snaps) and flopped. He produced a 20/201/2 line, which was mostly buoyed by a big game against Carolina’s horrendous secondary (7/63/1). He has a hard time getting open and did a poor job of adding yards after the catch. He’s also a terrible punt returner, with 5 fumbles through 17 games from 2019-20. Beebe isn’t a rosterable player, but I guess the Vikings just fell in love with his 2018 preseason tape.




Trades


Vikings send QB Kirk Cousins to the 49ers for their 2nd and 4th round picks.



It’s happening! There was a rumor floating around that this was San Fran’s asking price for Cousins, and I’d pounce all over it. Cousins is a fine, above average QB, but he was one of the primary reasons why this team started 1-5 and it became clear that he need to heavily rely on the running game to get him to play better. Owed $76M over 2021-22, he’s simply not worth that gargantuan amount, and it would be great to save $56M of that by trading him. This move leaves $20M of dead cap, but frees up $11M this year and a whopping $45M next year.


Kirk can reunite with Kyle Shanahan and provide something that Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t bring – durability. They’ll pay him $21M in 2021 and $35M (100% guaranteed) in 2022.




Vikings send OLB Anthony Barr to the Broncos for their 6th round pick (designated as a post June 1st trade)


The Vikings owe Barr a ridiculous $15M in 2021 despite mainly being used as a run-stuffing OLB, plus he’s coming off a major injury. With this roster under new management, I can salvage $12.5M of cap space from his deal and take a $2.6M hit this year and a $5.2M hit next year as penalties. Meanwhile the Broncos can take him on for a more affordable $12.3M and work on moving him to a pass rushing OLB, with Von Miller likely to be suspended/cut.




Vikings send LT Riley Reiff to the Chargers for their 5th round pick


Reiff had a strong 2020, but he’s got one year left under contract and we aren’t looking to win in 2021. The Chargers’ LT situation was a disaster and they probably should have tried to trade for a LT, so perhaps they could acquire Reiff for a cheap price, though they’ll have to take on his $11.75M salary. The Vikings only lose $2.2M of dead cap to make this move, so it’s a no-brainer in this scenario. Usually a LT like him would command more, the Vikings could have moved Reiff at multiple points in 2020, but found no takers.




Vikings send SS Harrison Smith to the Browns for the 4th round pick and SS Sheldrick Redwine


With one year left on Smith’s deal, it’s likely he’s either extended or traded. Since I’m going the way of the rebuild, this means I must sadly trade one of my favorite players and cash in that $10.25M of his salary. Smith should command a light return, and here I have the Vikings getting a 3rd year safety who hasn’t gotten a chance to play much in Cleveland since being drafted in the 4th round.



Cap Room: $46.21M



And just like that, the roster has been gutted and we have money to spend! I will going after younger players that have upside for the future, but they will have some obvious red flags. There are so many holes in this roster that it will be impossible to plug them all.



Free Agency

Sign LG Matt Feiler to a 4 year, $46M deal


It goes without saying the Vikings need to find guard help, and I’ll willing to make my only big move to fill this spot on the line. PFF on Feiler: “Feiler spent 2019 at right tackle and produced the fifth-best pass-block grade at that alignment then kicked to left guard for 2020 where he ranked 12th in pass-block grade.” He should be a massive upgrade in pass protection and will be a building block for the offense in this new rebuild.


Here is how I would structure the deal:





Sign CB Mike Hilton to a 3 year, $13M


Poaching another player off the Steelers’ roster, Hilton probably deserves more money than this, but nickel CBs inexplicably make tiny salaries compared to their peers. Hilton is a decent coverage corner, but specializes in rushing the passer and making plays. Over his four years as a nickel, he’s amassed 7 picks, 9.5 sacks, 23 QB hits, and 30 TFL (tackles for loss). The Vikings could use a veteran CB to complement Dantzler and Gladney, and Hilton would be a great fit.




Sign FS Malik Hooker to a 1 year, $5M (with incentives)



The Vikings need to add a high-upside option at safety, and Hooker has the potential to be that. He’s missed 28 games in the past 4 seasons, and he tore his Achilles’ tendon against the Vikings in Week 2. That sets him up for a one year deal that could lead to a bigger deal if he can prove himself. Hooker is a top-tier tackler and can cover receivers deep, so if he can take the field he’ll likely be worth his salary and then some.




Sign QB C. J. Beathard to a 2 year, $5M deal


I heavily considered signing Ryan Fitzpatrick, but that move would make a lot more sense if I were trying to make the playoffs in 2021. Since I’m not, I’ll go with a younger arm who played well for a short stretch in 2020. Beathard replaced Nick Mullens for the 49ers and had a 787/6/0 line in 2 starts, defeating the Cardinals and nearly upsetting the Seahawks. However, his play in 2017-18 was quite bad and he takes too many sacks, and consequently fumbled a lot. Still, he’s got a decent arm and can scramble around a bit, and he’s got more upside than many other backup candidates like Mannion.




Sign WR Alex Erickson to a 2 year, $4.5M deal


It’s time for the Vikings to improve their special teams. Erickson was one of the NFL’s better punt returners in 2020, with a high 10.1 yards per return. He’s capable of kick returns too. He’s a mediocre receiver, but he at least put up a 43/529/0 line in 6 starts in 2019, so he’s not as terrible as the Vikings’ backup WR options in 2020.




Sign OLB Alex Anzalone to a 1 year, $3M deal


With both Barr and Wilson hitting the road, I’ll need a placeholder to put next to Kendricks until I can find a true replacement. Anzalone is another injury-prone player who has potential, but the Saints never quite tapped into his full capabilities (in my opinion). He’s always been a quality coverage backer, but has never been an impact player in the run stopping department – he’s basically a cheaper Eric Wilson.




Sign DE/DT DeMarcus Walker to a 1 year, $2.5M deal


The Vikings badly need a 3 technique DT, but their options are limited and expensive. Instead, I’ll offer a cheap deal to Walker, a former second round pick who never broke out as a starter for the Broncos. He played 3-4 DE, but at 6’4” 280 lbs he could transition to DT without too many problems. He mustered 8.5 sacks the past two years playing in a rotation, and perhaps he could prove to be a decent interior pass rusher. He’s not going to be a long term solution, but perhaps he can stick as a key rotational piece.




Sign K Eddy Pineiro to a 1 year, $850K deal



Pineiro had a decent season as the Bears’ kicker in 2019, hitting 23/28 FGs and 27/29 XPs. He was expected to get the job back in 2020, but suffered a groin injury and he spent the whole year on the IR. Veteran Cairo Santos usurped him and had a fantastic season, making Pineiro expendable. I will bring in at least one more kicker to compete with him, but as long as he’s healthy (he also missed 2018 due to an injury), I will be somewhat comfortable with him as my kicker.




Cap Room: $18.4M




2021 NFL Draft

As always, it is still very early in the draft process for me. There are a ton of different routes to go here, as I’ve amassed a whopping 16 draft picks, even more than last year’s record of 15 draft picks. At the moment, here’s which kinds of picks I have:


1 of: 1st, 2nd, 7th

2 of: 3rd, 5th

3 of: 6th

5 of: 4th


That’s a lot of 4th rounders. Now, let’s make some moves and spend these draft picks!




Trade! Falcons send pick 1-4 for Vikings’ 1st, 2nd (SF), 4th (SF), 5th (LAC), and a 2022 4th.

Pick 1-4: QB Justin Fields

The Vikings land their QB of the future and their cornerstone to build around. Fields boasts a nearly complete toolset with a strong arm, top-notch athleticism, and high accuracy. He has a ways to go to develop his pocket prescence and learning how to handle blitzes, but in the hands of a great offensive coordinator/head coach, he could be molded into a top tier QB. Getting that guy on a rookie deal will carve a path to Super Bowl contention if everything goes right, and I’ll willing to take that chance.




Pick 3-78: T/G James Hudson


Spending more picks on offensive lineman is a must. Under this plan I would prepare Ezra Cleveland to play LT (or at least, figure out if he can handle it), and I would need someone to take his spot at RG. There currently aren’t many fits at guard who will be available at this point in the draft, so I will take a tackle and see if I can convert him to guard. Hudson fits in with the Vikings’ zone-blocking scheme, so for now he will be the pick.




Trade! Bears send pick 3-83 for Vikings’4th, 5th, and 6th (DEN).


Pick 3-83: DE Patrick Jones II


With QB and the O-line addressed so far, the D-line badly needs reinforcements. Jones is a classic 4-3 DE who is a quality pass rusher and holds his own in the ground game. I’m unsure if he will be available here, but he could slide if 3-4 teams see him as incompatible with their system.




Pick 3-90: LB Dylan Moses


With Barr and Wilson gone, a successor needs to be groomed. Moses is a speedy LB who is a strong tackler, but had an uneven final year at Alabama and needs to develop his ability to anticipate the offense’s plays. He may start out as the 3rd LB.




Pick 4-115: WR Shi Smith


The Vikings could stand to improve their WR room and be able to field 3 WRs more often. Smith is a speedy slot receiver with strong hands who would instantly be a massive upgrade from what Chad Beebe brought.




Pick 4-124: FS Caden Sterns

The roster is rather barren at safety, and taking Sterns would add a prospect who could start in 2022. Sterns profiles as a strong coverage safety usually best left deep down the field, as he struggles with tackling and taking the right angles to tackle ball-carriers.




Pick 4-comp: CB Thomas Graham Jr.

More depth at CB is needed with Hughes’ inability to stay on the field. Graham Jr. picked off 7 passes in 3 years, and is a very strong tackler. His main issue is his lack of speed, which led to QBs picking on him at times. He may be stuck as a nickel CB or could transition to safety.




Pick 5-151: DT Khyiris Tonga


A strong run defender, Tonga was a force in the run-stopping game at BYU and had a nose for the ball. He doesn’t offer a lot in the pass rushing department outside of knocking passes down, but we need a better back to Michael Pierce in case anything happens to him again. Tonga has a very similar skillset to Pierce and could eventually take over his spot as a starting nose tackle.




Pick 6-174: G Tristen Hoge

Taking shots on offensive linemen in the late rounds works for other teams, so perhaps if the Vikings revamped the offensive coaching room, they could start hitting on these picks every once in a while.




Pick 6-comp: TE Nick Eubanks


Eubanks didn’t get used much at Michigan, but was a strong blocker, which is something this roster could use since Smith Jr. and Conklin are receivers first and blockers second.




Pick 7-204: HB Jah-Maine Martin

I’d be taking shots at late round HBs more often since they pan out more than other positions this late in the draft. Martin was productive at a small college, but didn’t get to play in 2020.




UDFAs: K Chris Naggar and P Pressley Harvin III

I’d be willing to shell out some UDFA money for a new punter and competition at kicker. Harvin III was one of the best punters in the nation and could be drafted. Naggar had a decent senior year at SMU but that was his only year as a starter.



Optional Extensions



Extend Danielle Hunter


If Hunter proves to be healthy and 100% for the 2021 season, I would entertain an extension for him. I would also consider a trade if his contract demands are excessive. Here is a potential fix; it may not be accurate to his demands, but I could not find any precedent on a DE who wanted a contract just 2 years into a recent extension.




In this scenario Hunter receives a $12.5M signing bonus up front, $57M is added to the $49.75M left on the current deal, and $43.8M of the deal is now 100% guaranteed (he originally had $0M guaranteed).


Extend Brian O’Neill

O’Neill is primed to hit free agency in 2022, but I’m not going to let that happen. Here is a reasonable deal he could sign:




I think O’Neill will garner more than what James and Collins got on their deals, but he shouldn’t reach the $14M a year that Jack Conklin got from Cleveland. $13.25M a per should suffice.


Notes

Committed Salary in 2022: Originally $180.2M, but now approximately $148M after factoring in new deals and rookie contracts. Also, we’re poised to roll over $7.6M into 2022, which will give us even more room. Assuming the salary cap is $200M or more in 2022, the Vikings will be in position to spend big in the 2022 offseason.


Positions to fix in 2022: 3DT, LB, FS & SS, LT/C? DE?



Why not trade Thielen and Kendricks?


Good question. Thielen is on year 1 of his 4 year extension, and I’d like to keep him as the #2 WR to Jefferson and as a leader for the offense. He’s certainly moveable with only a $5.4M dead hit (0% of his salary is guaranteed, surprisingly), but last I heard over the 2020 trade deadline, only a 2nd round pick was offered for him. There’s plenty of time to trade him if we do want to take that route.


Kendricks, on the other hand, had a restructure and would cost the Vikings $10M to move him. He only counts $12.5M on the cap in 2021, which he is absolutely worth. Linebackers usually don’t get traded and I don’t know if they’d get much of a return for him. I’d prefer to keep Kendricks around for the future, at least through the rest of the 3 years left on his deal.



Depth Chart




Roster Financials:






Any thoughts?


Sources Used:

walterfootball.com/

www.spotrac.com

www.overthecap.com

thedraftnetwork.com/prospect-rankings

www.profootballreference.com

Welcome one and all to my sixth annual Guide to the Offseason Article! In previous years in this article, I’ve stated my plans on how I would make the Vikings a Super Bowl contender. Every year I

I looked back at the passing games of teams the Vikings faced last year, comparing what happens when we generated pressure versus when we didn't.  Not surprisingly, in most games the pass defense was much better when the QB was pressured.  Somewhat surprisingly, is just how terrible a good number of QBs were against us when pressured.

Looking at the individual games in 2019, we see for the most part QBs struggled when pressured, especially backups and rookies:



That Giant's, Denver and 2nd Detroit games aren't typos. Jones, Allen and Blough were really that awful when the Dline applied pressure.  I also took special pleasure in seeing just how bad Rodgers was when we pressured him.  His game has regressed quite a bit, and I think his performance when pressured against good defenses is a big reason the Packers took Love.  

On the flip side, we see Matt Moore somehow torched our defense when pressured.  He actually did much better when pressured than not, one of only 4 QBs we faced who accomplished that feat.  I also didn't realize we sacked him 5 times in that game.  It didn't appear to matter as he still found guys open quickly.  I will have to watch that game back, but I wonder if Zimmer blitzed quite a bit in that game with the backup in, and it burned him?

Regardless, we see that pressure, with the few exceptions of Wentz, Case, Moore, and Prescott (3 scrambling QBs and one with a horseshoe up his butt), shuts down opposing QBs in Zimmer's scheme. Much better than the average defense, with the league average passer rating against being 67.3.


Looking at what happens when a QB threw it because they believed their receiver was open against us, we see a huge increase in passer rating, TDs, and yards:



A few things we can see from this.

#1  The league average passer rating against is 100.13 when a QB is kept clean.  That means the Vikings pass defense was just a little below average when they couldn't apply pressure.  They were significantly better in YPA (7.9 league average versus 7.12), which tells us that the issue was the lack of picks.  Zimmer doesn't teach his CBs to gamble, and I think we see it in this stat.

#2  Every QB can do well when un-pressured, even backups and rookies.  

#3 Rivers and Jimmy G. couldn't figure out the Vikings coverage scheme.   Both played poorly when they were pressured and when they were kept clean.  It was a shame we couldn't stop the run against SF.  

To summarize all of this, Zimmer's D, like all defenses, relies on pressuring the QB to make bad decisions with the football.  Whether that is through good coverage forcing a QB to hold the ball too long, or a good pass rush getting to the QB quickly, his defenses are elite when applying pressure.  It kind of makes me wonder about the decision to not add another pass rusher to the team this off season, and makes Griffen leaving seem like the biggest loss.  Hopefully someone steps up big as the RDE, or it is going to be a long year.  I looked back at the passing games of teams the Vikings faced last year, comparing what happens when we generated pressure versus when we didn't.  Not surprisingly, in most games the pass

This is the first in a two part series analysing the statistics of 1st round WRs and CBs.Statistics were obtained from Pro Football Reference.

The aim is to get a gauge on what we might reasonably expect from Justin Jefferson and Jeff Gladney.
We'll start with the WRs taken in the 1st round of the past 11 drafts,this gives a reasonable sample size of 40 players.
As the table below shows,the average number of games started is 7.2 and the average number of TDs is 3.7 while the yards per game is 41.

Many fans expect Jefferson to be able to produce at a high level right off the bat and pick up Stefon Diggs production level,however this is probably unrealistic.In his final season with the Vikings,Diggs scored 6 TDs to be equal first with Adam Theilen and Kyle Rudolph while averaging 75.3 yards per game.
Jefferson would have to perform at well above the average of 1st round selections over the past 10 years.Indeed,only 1 player has exceeded 75 yards per game in their rookie year and only 7 players have exceeded 6 TDs.
Given the issues of Covid 19 and the disruption to OTA's,it would be astounding if Jefferson in his rookie year was able to contribute the numbers Diggs produced. If Jefferson were able to produce league average numbers,I think this would be a solid rookie year and a good foundation to build on.

This is the first in a two part series analysing the statistics of 1st round WRs and CBs.Statistics were obtained from Pro Football Reference. The aim is to get a gauge on what we might

Welcome to part 2 of this series,where we will focus on CBs taken in the 1st round to try and come up with an idea of what type of year Jeff Gladney may have.
Trying to get a handle on the chart below,16 of the 36 players taken in the first round have started 9 games or less their rookie year,this includes the 3 Vikings.
The average number of interceptions is 1.9 and the 3 Vikings CBs have 1 between them.As expected,the Viking corners are good tacklers,a trait that is demanded by current HC Mike Zimmer.
Corner is one of the hardest positions for rookies to produce at a high level,and is largely dependent on how quickly a player can pick up the new scheme,some of which can be very complex compared to what the player has done at the college level.
From a Vikings perspective,since arriving in 2014,HC Mike Zimmer has been cautious about throwing rookie corners on the field too early,so it will be interesting to see if this changes with three new starters required and very little time for the rookies to work with the coaching staff.



Welcome to part 2 of this series,where we will focus on CBs taken in the 1st round to try and come up with an idea of what type of year Jeff Gladney may have. Trying to get a handle on the chart

It seems to me that most NFL fans say that their team's CBs suck. In the modern NFL game, playing coverage is incredibly difficult, as fast WRs can blow by you, tall TEs can tower over you and get away with offensive pass interference, and the referees will be looking to throw penalty flags at you thanks to harsher coverage rules. From holding, illegal contact, and defensive pass interference, a cornerback must be a tough player without being too grabby.

There also doesn't seem to be much of a consensus on the ranking of CBs - I'm sure you've see plenty of top 10s out there, but I'm more interested in ranking everyone and finding out how many truly good, average, and awful CBs there are. Let's take a dive into trying to quantify the performances of CBs.

PlayerProfiler.com has recently become a favorite source of mine, as they are one of the primary tracker of coverage stats. For this article, I will be using Targets, Receptions Allowed, Yards Allowed, TDs Allowed, and Passes Broken Up. The targets and receptions are based off if the CB was the closest man to the play, or if it was clear he was assigned to the receiver. This means that these stats aren't perfect for obvious reasons. I had originally thought of combining this with some PFF stats, but I tossed their scores after seeing how little they matched up with PlayerProfiler.

I have combined these stats into a single number that I will use to grade CBs. The CB Grade will rank a player from 0 to 10, with 10 being the best possible performance. Here is how the stat breaks down:


60% based of passer rating when thrown at
30% based on rate of playmaking (interception or pass defended)
10% based on how often QBs threw at a CB
+ a small boost for CBs who played more snaps


PlayerProfiler's stats allowed me to calculate a QB's passer rating when throwing at a CB, and is the backbone of these ratings. I also wanted to reward CBs who deflected passes away more often and give them an extra boost from making an interception, so the Playmaking score will do just that. I also gave a small boost to CBs that QBs tended to avoid, since the Passer Rating does not give a boost to CBs who QBs won't dare to throw at. Finally, I put in a small boost for the number of snaps a CB played so that small sample size CBs would not float to the top due to not getting tested enough. I figure that CBs who don't play all the snaps and rotate in are fresher and likely play better when they can take more breaks, unlike a full-time CB who will rarely come off the field.


After going through 95 CBs and recording their stats into my spreadsheet, the final numbers ranged from 9.07 to 1.7. The average score was 4.46. Here's a quick tier system for determining what a grade means:

(Number of players per tier in parenthesis)


9+ HOF Level (1)
7.5 -> 9 Elite (2)
6 -> 7.5 Very good (8)
4.8 -> 6 Above Average (26)
4.2 -> 4.8 Average (17)
3 -> 4.2 Below Average (25)
1.5 -> 3 Very bad (16)
1.5- Beyond Abysmal (0)


The replacement level ended up being 3.04. For those unfamiliar with this concept, this means that if you pulled a random backup or free agent CB off the street, you would get about a 3.04 level of play from them.
This number was calculated by subtracting the average by a single standard deviation (1.42).


First, let's take a look at how the Vikings in 2019 ended up on this list.


Here's an image from my spreadsheet:





#49 - Mike Hughes 4.41

The good news is that the one CB who is still left with the team played the best according to my metrics. The bad news is that our CB group was clearly not good when their best player nabbed a slightly below average score. Hughes allowed 58% of passes that came his way to be completed for just 11.56 yards per catch (both below average numbers, in a good way). His playmaking score was easily the highest on the team, though that's more of an indictment on the rest of the guys on this team. The only truly negative stat he has here is that teams threw at him every 5 snaps he was out there, which is a very high number. The Vikings will be depending on him to be a full-timer next year, and in a limited role he showed off his skills in a year where he missed the entire offseason. His biggest roadblock will be staying healthy.



#51 - Mackensie Alexander 4.38

Alexander had a decent year as the Vikings' nickel CB, but hit free agency with a thud and barely made any money. He had similar numbers to Hughes, with 59% completion and 11.2 yards per catch allowed, and QBs targeted him the least compared to the other 3 Vikings' CBs. The biggest negative for him is playmaking ability - he knocked down only 3 passes and made a single interception. It's too bad they couldn't bring him back, as the Bengals should get their money's worth for him.



#81 - Trae Waynes 2.97

Wow, I did not expect Waynes to fall below replacement level! Opposing QBs went after Waynes (5.8 targets per snap), as he gave up 757 yards on 59 catches and 6 TDs. That makes for a 104.8 passer rating against, which is a rather poor number. Waynes also has terrible ball skills, and ended up with 5 knockdowns and a single interception (that happened in garbage time). Waynes' only true strength is his pure speed, which prevents him from getting burned deep, but his poor ball skills makes him an easy target for strong WRs to bully. The Bengals paid him $14M a year on a free agent deal, whch seems like a blatant waste of money.



#93 - Xavier Rhodes 2.4

How the mighty have fallen. Rhodes had a mediocre 2018 season, but plummeted to rock bottom in 2019, finishing as the 3rd worst CB by my metrics. He allowed a whopping 75.6% passes to be completed (3rd worst in the NFL). He failed to intercept a single pass, and QBs that went his way had a 121 passer rating when doing so. He managed to knock down 9 passes, but no longer
has the ability to run with WRs on deep routes. The Colts will try to fix him on a one year deal, but I have a hard time seeing him crack their starting lineup. His days of being an effective CB are likely over now.



Since the Vikings could use a veteran CB, let's see who's still out there on the free agent market.




Top Free Agents Available:

#1 Tramon Williams - #13, 5.89

Despite being a 36 year old nickel CB, Williams defied the odds and had another great season in 2019. He allowed just 52% of passes his way to be completed, and was a slightly above average playmaker. He may be 37 next year, but a wise team should offer him a small one year deal.



#2 Logan Ryan - #24, 5.44

Ryan had a below average season as a pure coverage corner, though it should be worth mentioning that he had 4.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. Ryan operated as the Titans' #2 CB and was the NFL's 2nd most highly targeted CB, giving up 938 yards and 5 TDs. Throw in the 5 interceptions and 10 knockdowns, and Ryan is the definition of a boom-or-bust player. He's apparently asked for at least $10M a year, which for obvious reasons has scared away any potential suitors.



#3 Darqueze Dennard - #27, 5.24

Dennard had a 3 year, $13.5M deal fall through with the Jaguars, and now he remains a free agent. Dennard missed part of the year with an injury, but the 28 year old had a quality season as the Bengals' nickel CB. He allowed just 9 yards per catch and gave up a total of 207 yards and 0 TDs. He'd be an upgrade to several teams' secondaries.



#4 Ross Cockrell - #34, 5.01

I find it hard to believe that 4 of the top 34 CBs are free agents, but here we are. Cockrell played some slot and some outside, and has a track record as a quality #2 CB despite playing on 4 different teams over his 5 year career. He managed to have a high playmaker score with 9 knockdowns and 2 interceptions and



#5 Tramaine Brock - #61, 3.8

A true journeyman, Brock was the Cardinals' #2 CB before getting cut midseason. His play wasn't quite bad enough to deserve being cut, as he allowed a low yards per catch and was not targeted heavily by opposing QBs, but he did give up 68% of passes to be completed and was a subpar playmaker.


#6 Brandon Carr - 3.18 - A veteran CB who moved to safety midseason and has never missed a game. Even in Baltimore's DB friendly defense, he showed zero playmaking ability and gave up 502 yards and 4 TDs.

#7 Daryl Worley - 3.09 - A young CB who has played a lot over his first four years, but just hasn't cut it in coverage.

#8 B.W. Webb - 2.6 - Webb had to start nearly the whole year for the Bengals and actively hurt the team with his play.




If you are interested in reading more, I have posted Part 2 in the NFL Talk Forums where I will cover how the rest of the league did at CB. Here is an excerpt:


Worst CB Groups based solely on 2019 play:

#28 - Vikings

Only a couple of years ago this unit was locking teams down, but now it has been gutted. Only Mike Hughes remains - though, the departures of Rhodes and Waynes is actually a positive according to my metrics. Still, the Vikings are left with nobody to take on other teams' #1 WRs, and it will be up to 1st rounder Jeff Gladney, 3rd rounder Cameron Dantzler, and the suspension-plagued Holton Hill to rebuild the position. Expect some rough outings from this squad as they figure things out.


If you are interested in seeing the entire spreadsheet of CB Grades, you can reach it here on this google sheet.


What do you think of my CB grading system? Do you think it fairly portrays them, and if not, what should be changed in my formula? Where there any players who you were surprised by their ranking? 
It seems to me that most NFL fans say that their team's CBs suck. In the modern NFL game, playing coverage is incredibly difficult, as fast WRs can blow by you, tall TEs can tower over you and get

It's time for the 2020 NFL Offseason, and you know what that means! It's time for the 5th Annual Guide to the Vikings Offseason from yours truly! And when I say "guide to the offseason", I mean to say this is how I would manage the Vikings' roster if I were the GM. This is not a list of predictions that I think will happen, but what I want to happen.

Anyways, here's the current cap situation for the Vikings:




Cap Room: -$12.84



Wow, we’ve went from $53M in 2018 to $6.3M in 2019, and now a negative double digit amount in 2020. Not good, but there will be moves that can be made to give this roster some flexibility.



Offseason Goals:

Get younger and focus on getting players who can help now and down the road. I may be the GM in control right now, but I am going to operate under the assumption that I’m going to have a job in 2021. This isn’t the time to get reckless and throw everything away to win now, but it’s also not time to trade a bunch of picks and move up into the top 10 to select a QB. If 2020 is to be the final year of the Spielman-Zimmer combo, then I want to make the roster prepared to rebound quickly to prevent several years of tanking.


So, without any further ado, let's get this party started!

Releases / Cuts



CB Xavier Rhodes (move saves $8.1M, leaves $4.8M of dead money)

Y’know, before I go into the negatives about Rhodes, I’d just like to mention that I’ve enjoyed most of Rhodes’ career as a Viking. I don’t hate the guy - I was a huge fan of his and was high on my wish list when he was selected. At his peak, he was a top CB who could lock on to most WRs and shut them down. Threats like Odell Beckham Jr. and Julio Jones were neutralized in his wake.


But that was the past, and this is now. I remarked in last year’s offseason manifesto that Rhodes had a down year in 2018. Well, Rhodes redefined what a down year for him was in 2019. He’s clearly slow down due to age and injury, gave up play after play in coverage, consistently made dumb mistakes to draw penalties, and multiple times had communication issues that resulted in huge plays. He was far and away the defense’s biggest liability, and finding an upgrade would go a long way to improve this team.



DT Linval Joseph (move saves $10.49M, leaves $2.4M of dead money)

This was a hard move to make, as Linval has been the D-line’s anchor for several years now. Joseph’s contributions in the trenches established the Vikings’ defense being a top 10 unit year in and year out. But he’s 31 now, and has been steadily declining since 2017. I’m not risking finding out if he takes another step back in 2020.

His play in 2019 was above average, but by PFF’s grades, the worst in his career as a Viking (he set the bar pretty darn high though!). Joseph only missed 2 games due to injury, but the Vikings’ run defense had a masterful game against Ezekiel Elliott in Dallas in his absence. It makes sense to slide Shamar Stephen into his slot as the nose tackle, since Stephen is a solid run defender, but brings zero pass rush.



DE Everson Griffen voids his own deal (move saves $13.07M, leaves $800K in dead money)

Griffen’s contract is a bit of an odd one, allowing him to void his deal due to his high level of play in 2019. But why would he void the rest of his 3 year, $444M deal? It’s simple – there’s only $800K left guaranteed, meaning that the Vikings could cut him at any time and pocket the money. Instead, it’d be wise if Griffen cut his losses and headed to the FA market for a new deal. While it’s certainly possible the Vikings could work on a new deal with him, I’ll let him sign elsewhere.

Griffen’s play in 2019 was like his past seasons after a troublesome 2018. He’s going to turn 33 next year, and I’m pushing towards a youth movement, so I will opt to let Griffen go. It will be difficult to replace him.


Current cap room: $18.8M



Restructures


LT Riley Reiff – Drops cap hit to $7.22M, pushes $3.7M guaranteed to 2021. Move saves $5.98M of 2020 cap.

This restructure will act as a small pay cut and push some of Reiff’s unguaranteed money to 2021. Instead of receiving a $10.9M salary in 2021, his salary will be cut to the minimum, but he will receive a prorated bonus of $9.4M. Reiff will basically make a bit less money in 2020, but will get more total money thanks to guaranteeing some of his 2021 salary.

At the moment, the Vikings don’t have a replacement ready at LT, which is one of the hardest positions to fill in the NFL. The only real possibility I see outside of trading for Trent Williams would be to move RT O’Neill there, but I’d rather keep him at his current position. Reiff is a average LT who is starting to age and is rather expensive, so this will likely be his last year as a Viking.



FS Harrison Smith – Drops cap hit to $7.047M, pushes $3.9M to 2021. Move saves $3.7 of 2020 cap.

This restructure will not act as a pay cut. Smith will receive a $7.85M bonus that will be split between 2020 and 2021. We will have plenty of money to spend in 2021, so I think moving about $8M there with these two restructures is fine enough, and will not mortgage the future.

Smith is still playing on a very high level, but it’s possible 2020 will be his last year as a Viking. I’m not ready to move on quite yet.



WR Stefon Diggs – Drops cap hit to $10.5M, spreads $4M across 4 years. Move saves $3M of 2020 cap.

This is a rather minor restructure, and like Smith’s, not a pay cut. The move turns $4M of Diggs’ base 2020 salary and guarantees it, giving it to him up front. This causes $1M to be added to each of the 4 years of his deal, which is good for him as he only has $9M guaranteed left on his deal. He will be a potential trade chip for the 2021 offseason, but I’m not going to move on from him now – the offense would suffer greatly without him.


LB Eric Kendricks – Drops cap hit to $7.014M, spreads $4M across 4 years. Move saves $3M of 2020 cap.

I didn’t want to make this many restructures, but unfortunately, here we are. This is the exact same as Diggs’ restructure. Kendricks will now make $12M in 2021 and $13M in 2022, which are reasonable with the elite level of play he held in 2019.


Current cap room: $34.5M



Extensions to Players Under Contract

None

Yeah, that’s right! I am not giving extensions to anyone who is under contract, which mainly includes Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook. I am by no means anti-Cousins, but I have no interest paying him over $30M a year to be our QB. Kirk gives the Vikings fringe top 10 QB play and has shown that he is capable of winning a tough playoff game, but I’m also concerned that Cousins is stuck at Alex Smith level. Smith is a fine QB, but the Chiefs never had the ability to get over the hump until they went ahead and drafted Pat Mahomes. Cousins is a fine QB to have in the meantime, but preparations should be made to look to improve his position.

Cook, on the other hand, is an easy “no” for an extension. He can’t stay healthy, nearly all of the best HBs in the NFL are currently on their rookie deals, and the Vikings should focus on throwing money at other positions than HB. They already have capable backups in Mattison and Boone, and you can put most any HB out there and they’ll do a fine job if you provide the blocking. I don’t fear a Cook holdout in 2020, but he likely would if he gets the franchise tag slapped on him in 2021. I also don’t feel the need to trade him now, but they could try a tag-and-trade over the 2021 season. As for now, I’ll head into 2020 with Cook as my primary running back.



Re-signing Our Free Agents


FS Anthony Harris – 4 years, $55M


Now with contracts laid out!



I went back and forth on extending Harris. In one sense, paying two safeties $10M+ a year is not a wise way to allocate your cap. Safety is also the deepest position in the NFL, and many talented players can be had for cheap (I was targeting FS Tre Boston as a cheap replacement).


However, Harris is currently one of the best players in the NFL. He is a playmaker, picking off 7 passes this season (including postseason). That makes 10 interceptions in his past 25 starts! While I planned on allocating money to the trenches, I simply couldn’t justify letting Harris go. Harrison Smith isn’t going to be around forever, and the Vikings defense needs more players who can generate turnovers.



CB Mackensie Alexander – 4 years, $32M



I also went back and forth on Alexander, but I’ve opted to give him a new deal, as he fits my plan of going young. Once Alexander was able to get ahold of the starting nickel job in 2018, he’s been a good but not great pass defender who has outplayed Rhodes and Waynes each of the past two seasons. 2020 will be just his third season in the starting lineup, so you’d hope he could continue to improve his game.




OLB Eric Wilson – Original Round Tender - $2.144M

Wilson jumped Ben Gedeon on the depth chart as he became a “starter” as the third linebacker to Kendricks and Barr. Of course, I say that with quotation marks because the Vikings only use a 3rd LB about 25% of the time. He’s a quality player and deserves to be re-signed, though it’s possible another team could swoop in and bid for him since he’s a restricted free agent.



FB C.J. Ham – Extend on a 3 year, $6M deal

Instead of tendering Ham and giving him $2.144M like Wilson, I’ve opted to give Ham a small deal that will make him the 4th highest paid FB in the league… no, seriously. Only two FBs in the league make over $3M a year, so Ham should be able to be retained for an amount this small.



K Dan Bailey – 2 year, $4M deal

I’ll tell you what, I did not imagine I’d be writing this back in the 2019 preseason when the Vikings traded a 5th rounder to get Kaare Vedvik. Bailey suffered from horrible accuracy during training camp, yet rebounded and had a very strong regular season. It seemed his poor 2018 season would have signaled the end for him, but he responded by suddenly turning back into his old self when he was a Cowboy. I would make sure to get him back, especially since our efforts in finding a new kicker are likely to end in failure.



SS Andrew Sendejo – 1 year, $900K

Sendejo was willing to sign a 1 year $860K deal with the Eagles last offseason, so perhaps he would make a bit more to return as a backup. Sendejo wasn’t bad with the Eagles (though he did give one of his own players a severe concussion) and was a quality backup for the Vikings, coming up with a big interception in the Broncos game and playing an entire game at nickel CB against the Saints and holding his own. Safeties are a dime a dozen these days, so it shouldn’t take much to get him back.




Players Being Let Go


CB Trae Waynes

Always more name than game, it took a full two seasons of learning on the bench and rotating with Terence Newman to get Waynes into the starting lineup… and the former 11th overall pick turned into an unspectacular #2 CB. Trae can take on most team’s secondary and tertiary receivers and do just fine, but when he goes up against a team’s team option, he simply can’t do it. He’s got speed like few other CBs, but his ball skills are so poor, his speed is put to poor use again and again. He will likely sign a multi-year deal that will pay him far more than he’s worth.



S Jayron Kearse

The Vikings might actually end up missing Kearse more than you’d expect. When he was in the lineup, Kearse was a strong run defender and had very strong coverage grades when he got the chance. Unfortunately, the Vikings rarely ever gave him the chance to see the field over his 4 year career in Minnesota, so other teams will be signing him for his potential. Add in a boneheaded DUI that will likely earn him a 4 game suspension to start the 2020 season, and he will likely be had for cheap.



P Britton Colquitt

I originally opted to keep Colquitt with a 2 year deal, but the market for punters is paying more than I would like to give with the cap that’s already bursting at the seams. I was surprised to learn that 15 NFL punters make over $2M a year, meaning that Colquitt will require at that much. The Vikings have shown that they can bounce between Quigley/Wile/Colquitt while getting average at worst performances from them, so I’d rather go to the drawing board with a UDFA punter



TE David Morgan

Morgan was a quality run-blocking TE for the Vikes from 2016-18, but a knee problem from 2018 cost his entire 2019 season. I liked what I saw from UDFA TE Brandon Dillon, so I will move on to the younger, cheaper, and healthier option.

(update: apparently Morgan’s contract tolled over into 2020, which means I save $745K by cutting him. I get a tiny bit more cap to play with! Hooray!)



T Rashod Hill

Hill might command a bit of money after starting 16 games the past 3 years – though, he should end up as a high-end swing tackle, and not a starter. The Vikings tried to start the 2018 season with him as their RT, and it did not work out at all. He will already be 28 in 2020, and I will fill his spot with a rookie.


DE Stephen Weatherly

The former 7th rounder put himself on the map with a solid 6 game replacement of Everson Griffen during the 2018 season. The Vikings rewarded him with a larger role in 2019, but you could hardly tell, as he basically disappeared from sight. Weatherly’s play was among the league’s worst pass rushers, so I’m unsure if the Vikings should ask him to return. He could be a guy who returns at a cheap price when he discovers that other teams aren’t interested in paying him.



C Brett Jones

Jones is a fine backup center, but I’d rather develop my own long term interior O-line backup.



WR Laquon Treadwell

LOL bye!



G Dakota Dozier

Dozier was a 90 man roster add who signed a deal near the league minimum, but was able to win the backup guard/center role and ended up starting 4 games. He did not look good (though it was against the Packers, Bears, Eagles, and Broncos, so tough competition there) and I don’t want him back next year.



HB Ameer Abdullah

Functioning as the backup 3rd down HB and kick returner, I think I can find an easy replacement to Abdullah late in the draft, or even a UDFA. He’s fine at what he does and could return at the veteran minimum, if needed.



QB Sean Mannion

I have no interest in retaining one of the league’s worst backup QBs. It’s nice that Cousins is so durable, but I’d still like to find a better option. I’m still salty from the whole Sloter situation.



CB Marcus Sherels

Poor Marcus. I was right to leave him out of my plans in last year’s article, but Sherels ended up getting cut 3 different times in 2019, and had 2 stints with the Vikings, ending with a muffed punt in the divisional matchup against the 49ers. Sherels should retire.



LB Kentrell Brothers

Brothers is a fine special teams LB, but no longer has the upside to crack the starting lineup. His start against the Bears Week 17 was his first career start, and quite possibly his last. I’d be fine bringing him back at the veteran minimum.



Trades


Vikings send G/C Pat Elflein and a compensatory 7th round pick to the Bengals for their 6th round pick.

With one year left on his deal, Pat Elflein could make for a nice reclamation project with another team. He’s not a fit in the Vikings zone blocking system, and would have a decent chance at cracking Cincinnati’s starting lineup. This move saves a bit of cap, and I won’t have a hard time finding a backup guard/center.



Current cap room: $17.85M



Free Agency


Sign CB Kendall Fuller to a 4 year, $36M deal.




The younger brother of Bears CB Kyle Fuller, Kendall started out as the Redskins nickel CB in 2017 before getting sent to Kansas City in the Alex Smith trade. He had standout 2017 and 2018 seasons, and became a full-time starter with the Chiefs after they pulled off the trade. However, his 2019 had him miss 5 games due to injury and his quality of play dipped. I think this is a great opportunity to sign a young (only 25 in 2020!) CB who has the potential to be a long term option. He may not be the shutdown #1 CB that the Vikings could use, but Fuller can function as an outside CB on 2 WR sets and usually shifts to the nickel in 3+ WR sets, so it’s not like he’s locked into being a nickel CB.

The Vikings absolutely need to come away with at least 1 veteran CB who can hold his own, and while it will be hard to bid for the big fish in the free agent market, Fuller would be a great second tier grab.




Sign DT Maliek Collins to a 5 year, $56M deal.




This will be the only other major splash the Vikings will make in the free agent market. The Vikings D-line sorely lacked a 3T DT to add some interior rush, and Collins will give them that push. PFF had him as a top 10 interior pass rusher, and while he only provided 4 sacks for the Cowboys last season, it’s all about the pressures. He’s also not a pushover against the run. I expect Collins’ price tag to reach into the $11-12M per year range, but it’s possible the price goes higher than this. If they can’t land a player of Collins’ caliber in free agency, they should look to find that guy with their 1st round pick.



Sign WR Tajae Sharpe to a 1 year, $3.5M deal.

This wouldn’t be a Day 1 deal, but it would make for a solid acquisition of a WR who could fill the #3 role. The former 5th rounder started his career as the Titans’ #2 WR, but bounced between the fringe of the roster and starting again throughout his 4 year career. Sharpe could make for a good fit as an outside receiver with Diggs/Thielen in the slot and the other as the opposite outside receiver. He’s not going to be anything special, but he’d give you way more production than Treadwell could in that same role.



Sign OLB Bryce Hager to a 1 year, $900K deal.

The former Ram has been a gritty special teams contributor, but has never gotten the chance to seize a starting role for LA. The Vikings could use a backup to Kendricks/Barr/Wilson with just Cameron Smith left on the roster (I don't have Gedeon making the team). This would likely be a post-draft signing.

Current cap room: $3.2M



Draft Picks


Pick 1-25: G Shane Lemieux

I don’t know this year’s draft class all that well, so please understand that the positions are more important than the actual players here. I opted not to go after a guard in free agency to fill Elflein’s spot, but I fully intend to find a top-notch option. Since I will be returning Reiff, O’Neill, Bradbury, and Kline, I can’t afford to go cheap on the 5th spot. If we could get a big rookie season from an interior offensive lineman, it should give Cousins more time to throw and a better chance of hanging with tougher pass rushes.



Pick 2-25: DE Kenny Willekes

More picks to bolster the trench! Right now my DE depth chart is Hunter, Odenigbo… and not much else. Even if Willekes ends up as a rotational body behind Odenigbo, we need more talent in the D-line rotation. Willekes has a high motor and picked up 10.5 sacks for Michigan State in 2019, and would hopefully end up as another success story for D-line coach / co-DC Andre Patterson.



Pick 3-25: QB Jalen Hurts

You probably could have seen this one coming since I refused to give Cousins an extension. It’s time the Vikings started taking some shots at QBs, even if they are likely to be low-percentage ones. I understand that many are hesitant to let Spielman try to draft another QB, but I think that’s a poor reason to never attempt it again. Hurts has the upside to be a mobile QB with a decent arm, but needs to work on his vision and decision-making process. I’d rather hand the 2021 Vikings Hurts + a cheap veteran than giving Cousins a new $30M+ a year deal.



Pick 4-25: T Jack Driscoll

I’m taking a similar approach Spielman did to the 2019 draft – go O-line with the 1st and 4th round picks. I’ve already stated that this is likely to be Reiff’s last year as a Viking, we could use a depth pick to develop another tackle alongside Oli Udoh. Driscoll had a good year as Auburn’s RT, but needs to build strength (only 296 lbs). Perhaps O’Neill could move to LT in 2021 and Driscoll could take over the RT spot then too.



Pick 4-Compensatory: CB Troy Pride Jr.

Zimmer has a notorious disdain for using rookie CBs, so I’d rather see the Vikes select them later in the draft. Pride Jr. can sit behind Fuller, Hughes, Alexander, and Hill and develop for the future.



Pick 6-14: OLB Kamal Martin (acquired in trade with TB)

Late round LBs are what Rick Spielman lives for. He can make up for not drafting Gophers LB Blake Cashman last year and scoop up another U of M alum in Martin.



Pick 6-25: S Jaylinn Hawkins

Now we’re getting deep in the weeds. My plan only has Sendejo as the backup safety, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see a late round pick spent on a reserve safety. They took Marcus Epps with a 6th rounder last year, but he was poached away by the Eagles when the Vikings tried to get him to the practice squad.



Pick 6-Compensatory: C Matt Hennessey (I traded a 7th to move pick #7-2 into a late 6th rounder.)

I’ve noticed that there are several NFL centers who are late picks/UDFAs who are having successful careers, like Ryan Jensen, Austin Reiter, Chase Roullier, and Matt Skura. While the center job is not leaving the hands of Garrett Bradbury anytime soon, it wouldn’t hurt to draft a backup to him.



Pick 7-Compensatory: HB Jason Huntley

I’ll be totally honest – I just went to College Football Reference and sorted by players who have had the most kick return TDs and will be draft-eligible. Huntley, who hails from New Mexico State, returned 5 kicks for TDs in 59 tries in his 4 year career. He’s not projected to be drafted, so why not spend a late pick on him? It’s better than blowing the selection on a long snapper.



UDFA: Added P Blake Gillikin

Punters can be scooped up anywhere these days, as the Vikings’ last 3 punters have been free agent pickups on cheap deals. We don’t have much cap rook left, so I’ll opt to make a UDFA my starting punter.

UDFA: Added DE La'Darius Hamilton

The roster has room for another project D-lineman, so I'll take a flier on a small school player.



Alright, let’s see how the roster turned out!




Depth Chart




Final Cap Room: $4.4M (we saved more money by cutting some players like Gedeon and Holmes to get down to 53 players)

Questions You May Have About the Roster:


I thought you were going to fix the trenches, but you only added one new starter on the O-line?


That’s right. You might have expected to see LT Reiff get replaced, but left tackles. They were unlikely to find one with their 1st round pick, as usually the sure-fire LTs go early, and I’m not a fan of the free agent LTs this year (Anthony Castonzo, D.J. Humphries, Andrew Whitworth, and Jason Peters).


This plan hinges on Bradbury taking a big step up from his play as a rookie. As a 1st round pick, I couldn’t just give up on him, and it’s far too early to call him a bust and find a replacement. If he can step up and my rookie LG can play well out of the gate, the O-line will be one of the better units in the NFL.


Meanwhile, as for the D-line, I don’t have the depth I would like to, but I now have a top 10 pass rusher (per PFF) on the outside (Hunter) and on the inside (Collins). Odenigbo played 40% of the snaps and got 7 sacks last year, and while you can’t seriously project that forward, it’s clear he’s ready to roll with a bigger role. Shamar Stephen can slide over to the NT spot Joseph leaves open, which fits him far better than the 3 technique role he played last year. Add in Willekes, Watt, and Johnson as the rotational guys, and it should make for a strong group.




Are you really going to trust Mike Hughes with the #2 CB job?


Yes, I am. Spielman and Zimmer thought of Hughes highly enough to spend a 1st round pick on him, and while I didn’t like the pick, it’s time for him to come through and play up to his draft pick. I’ve already given a bunch of money to Fuller, Harris, and Alexander, so throwing any more money at the secondary would be irresponsible (that is, to pull money away from improving other positions). I am quite high on Holton Hill, so if Hughes gets hurt again or disappoints, Hill can step up and fill his spot.




Did you ruin the 2021 cap by making these moves?


Great question! Let’s do a quick analysis:


Total salaries in 2021: $178.2M

After releases: $130.5M

After re-signings and restructures: $167M

After free agents and draft picks: $196M

2020 Rollover: Approximately $3-5M

2021 Cap Room: Will probably be around $210M

2021 Cap Space: Very roughly $18M



So to answer your question… not quite. The big signings in my plan definitely shifted some money over into the 2021 season, but just like this year, some expensive veterans could be released to make more room (Rudolph can be released for an extra $5M, Barr for $8M, Reiff for around $7M, Diggs & Thielen make $30M together and could be traded for more room).


If you’re going to hit the reset button over the 2021 offseason, there will be plenty of players to trade away and the cap will open up. I’m also not concerned that the players with bigger deals – Fuller, Collins, Harris, and Alexander – will start regressing due to age anytime soon, as Harris the only one who’s getting paid into his 30s.



Alright, that’s enough for one article! What did you think? How would you manage the Vikings’ cap and put the 2020 roster together?
It's time for the 2020 NFL Offseason, and you know what that means! It's time for the 5th Annual Guide to the Vikings Offseason from yours truly! And when I say "guide to the offseason", I mean to

Danchat created this lovely visual for all of us, and I thought it deserved its own thread to promote more discussion. 

Here is (part of) his original post:

@danchat created this lovely visual for all of us, and I thought it deserved its own thread to promote more discussion.  Here is (part of) his original post:

We're back to the NFL Offseason - and you know what time it is! The 4th Annual Guide to the Offseason! Before we start, just a reminder, this is not an article about predicting what will happen, but it's rather what I would do with the Vikings roster if I were the GM.



Here's the current cap situation for the Vikes:







Yikes, only $6.3M in cap room. Last year we had $53M to play with, so I'll be limited with what I can do. Here goes!





Releases / Waives



WR Laquon Treadwell (move saves $0M, all $3.16M is dead)



Goodbye, Bustwell. Despite putting up great numbers in college and displaying athleticism and great hands, none of that transitioned to the NFL. It seems to me that when he broke his fibula and dislocated his ankle in 2014 (it was a gruesome injury, look it up), he was never the same afterwards. All of his burst was gone and with no ability to separate from defenders, he could at least been a solid possession receiver. That didn't happen as Treadwell coasted on his talent (he admitted this in his sophomore year with the Vikings) and didn't bother to master route-running. All this has added up to a WR who can't get open, can't run routes, can't catch the ball, and doesn't seem to be bothered to improve his game. The Vikings offense will improve simply due to him not being on the field.



G/T Mike Remmers (move saves $4.55M, leaves $1.8M in dead money)



Remmers signed a 5 year, $30M deal with the Vikings, and I wouldn't say that it was a total failure. His 2016 season at RT was successful and he earned his pay. However, when Easton went down at the end of the 2016 season, Remmers moved to RG and that foreshadowed his permanent move to guard. Unfortunately, Remmers proved to be a below average guard who simply doesn't have the strength to move defensive linemen in the run game. His strength was always as a pass defender as a RT, and it was baffling locked him into the RG spot even when realistic alternatives existed. With RT Brian O'Neill appearing to be a mainstay there, I'll move on from Remmers to open some cap room. He'll get another crack at starting somewhere else because NFL teams are so desperate for offensive linemen.



SS Andrew Sendejo



Sendejo's contract has the 2019 season as an option that the Vikings can decline. I'll pass on paying Sendejo that, as Anthony Harris has taken over his job and played better than he ever did. That's not to say Andrew didn't play well as a Viking - he was a solid run defender and decent in coverage, and he provided a stable partner to Smith in the defensive backfield. He'll be 32 next season and his groin injury that cost him the season lingered far longer than expected, so I'd rather go with the younger guy who played better, but I'll give Sendejo a "happy trails" on his way out.





Remaining Cap: $16.4M





Re-Signing



Restructure DE Everson Griffen's deal - save $5M



I think restructuring Griffen's deal to give him some more guaranteed money while lowering his cap hit in 2019 is a win-win for each side. I'm not ready to have the Vikings move on from Griffen quite yet, and I'm not sure why exactly he started to regress in the second half of the season - he seemed to be healthy, mentally and physically, but he wasn't creating any pressure.





SS Anthony Harris - 3 years, $18M total, $5M guaranteed



Harris shot ahead of George Iloka when Sendejo went down with injury, and I'm willing to pay him now that he's about to hit free agency. The good news is that safeties don't make very much money nowadays, so Harris shouldn't be expensive to retain. $6M a year seems to be fair compared to other safeties getting that money (Micah Hyde/Quandre Diggs/Jonathan Cyprien). You could say that it's odd to retain Harris despite his inexperience compared to Barr and Richardson, but he'll be much cheaper and he easily outplayed those two in 2018.





ERFAs P Wile and FB Ham retained



Matt Wile and C. J. Ham can be brought back for next to nothing, so I'll have them return. Ham hasn't done much as a FB, and it'll be up to Stefanski to use him or discard the FB position. Wile had a good season as a first year starter and could get better in his second season.





Tender RFA T Hill - original round (about $800K)



Rashod Hill has been a decent backup tackle, so I'll bring him back on an original tender. Any other NFL team could offer him a deal, but I don't think he's good enough to warrant another team overpaying him to steal him away.





Sign WR Aldrick Robinson 1/$1.2M



Robinson and Cousins had some chemistry going (at least for a 4th WR), and I'd love to bring back Aldrick at a steeper price. He won't be guaranteed a roster spot, but I like his chances of sticking around as the 4th WR.





Remaining Cap: $12.3M







Players Being Let Go





DT Sheldon Richardson



Richardson was a surprise signing that most Vikings fans didn't expect to happen after Cousins' deal. Richardson delivered a decent season that was similar compared to his past efforts - plenty of pressure, not a ton of sacks, and decent run support. PFF rated him as slightly above average, and it's for that reason I'm not bringing him back. He should earn $10M+ a season, and for what he brings, he's simply not worth the money. The Vikings have many other needs that need to be addressed, and they won't lose much letting Richardson go.





OLB Anthony Barr



This was a tough one, but I'm letting Barr go. The 4 time Pro Bowler's potential was never quite reached with the Vikings, as I think he's better fit as a pass rushing-first 3-4 OLB role. Barr is a very capable run defender and decent cover LB, but his play for the Vikings fluctuate from fantastic to disastrous. Barr's 2018 was all over the place with a few dominant games (vs Dolphins, at Seahawks) and a few awful games (vs Bills, vs Bears). However, with the money he'll command (I'm thinking $13M a year or more) and the fact that when he's been injured, the Vikings defense has been fine... I'm letting him go. Replacing him won't be easy, but it must be done.





HB Latavius Murray



Murray had a solid two year run with the Vikings and proved to be a capable starter, but nothing more than that. In the five starts he received with Cook injured, Murray topped 70 yards once and ran for just 4.0 yards per carry in his Vikings career. He's a great pass protector, but brings little to nothing as a receiver (he also dropped a pass that was intercepted in the abysmal Bills game). I'd rather look for a younger and cheaper replacement, as the more I watch NFL games, the more I realize you can plug any HB behind a good offensive line and they'll run well, and that makes bringing back Murray of little value to me.





C Brett Jones



The Vikings acquired Jones for a 7th round pick, and they started him for 3 games and used him as the backup center for the rest of the season. Jones' PFF grade was very low, but his near-full 2017 campaign with the Giants was well-rated. He'll sign a small deal as a backup center somewhere.





G Tom Compton



Compton should have made the team as a backup guard who could fill in at a moment's notice. Instead, due to Easton's back injury, he ended up starting 14 games and was a poor blocker. Compton would have games where he would play relatively well, but when it came time to face guys like DeForest Buckner (3 sacks) or Aaron Donald (1 game-ending strip sack), he had no chance. Compton will make someone else's team as a reserve.





S George Iloka



Iloka was a 5th round pick who was developed by then-Bengals DC Mike Zimmer, and he was a good not great starting safety for Cincinnati for several years. The Bengals went with a rookie at safety and axed Iloka, and he took a backup job with the Vikings, and luckily for him, Sendejo had a groin injury that ended his season. However, something happened that nobody saw coming - Anthony Harris ran away with the job and never looked back. Iloka rotated as the starting safety alongside Smith, and while his play was average, Harris was on another level. Iloka might not get a starting job next year, but he's a great backup at this point.





QB Trevor Siemian



The Vikings made Siemian their backup after shipping this year's 5th round pick to Denver for him. With QB injuries frequently had here in Minnesota, Spielman wisely acquired one of the league's better backups, but I'm ready to move on from him. He should land a backup gig elsewhere and earn around $3-4M a season. I'm ready to move forward with Kyle Sloter as Cousins' primary backup.





G Nick Easton



I'll pass on figuring out Easton's back injury - I'm sure he'll be willing to come back for cheap, but I'm not interested in having big question marks on the O-line. His injury in 2017 season right before the playoffs crippled the O-line, and his 2018 injury was even worse as it forced Compton in. We need healthy O-lineman on this team, and I can't trust Easton to return and play a full season.





DT Tom Johnson



The Vikings were able to get Tom Johnson back in despite adding Sheldon Richardson, which was thanks to the Seahawks trying to sneak him into free agency for a week. In his rotational role, Johnson notched 4.5 sacks but didn't do much else, as he was a poor run defender. I think the Vikings are better off going with younger guys (Jaleel Johnson and Holmes) in the rotation to see if they can live up to their potential.





HB Ameer Abdullah



Special Teams coach Mike Priefer requested the waiver claim on Abdullah due to his ability in returning kicks. However, kick returning happens so infrequently now that he's not worth anything in that department. He was a dynamic back in college, but he fizzled out with the Lions. He'll land on someone's 90 man roster.





K Dan Bailey



I was all over signing Bailey over Daniel Carlson, and it appears that I was wrong. The Cowboys noticed that Bailey had declined, and it seems it wasn't due to the injury he suffered in 2017. Bailey was the next kicker to flop hard in Minnesota, hitting just 4/9 FGs between 40-49 yards and just one over 50 yards. There are still many teams hungry for a new kicker, so some other team can go pay him if they'd like. I'd rather find a young kicker to develop.





CB Marcus Sherels



I have plans to add a new punt returner, so it's time to say "so long" to Sherels. He's been a great punt returner, but he'll be 32 next season and I think it's time to move on.





Trade



Vikings send CB Trae Waynes and a 2020 5th rounder for NO OLB Alex Anzalone.



To open enough cap space for the moves I'd like to make in free agency, I will need to trade a CB, and I think Trae Waynes is the one to go. Trae has proven to be a solid #2 CB, but not much else than that. With Rhodes, Hill, and Hughes all capable of taking his place, it seems prudent to trade him now. I'll ship him off to the Saints, who need to find a #2 CB to Marshon Lattimore after the Eli Apple trade backfired. In return, the Vikings will get OLB Alex Anzalone, of whom I'm chalking up as my Anthony Barr replacement. A 3rd round pick entering his third season, Anzalone is the Saints' 3rd OLB behind DeMario Davis and AJ Klein, and with those two under contract, I believe the Saints would be willing to move him. He's played decently when on the field, but I think he has potential for more. The Vikings get two years of control over Anzalone, so I'll send the Saints a 5th rounder next year to help make up for that.



Remaining Cap Room: $20.4M







Free Agency



C Matt Paradis 5 years / $50M total / $22M guaranteed



Alright, here's our big free agency spending. The Vikings need to add some high-end offensive line talent, and Paradis qualifies as that. The Vikings have Gary Kubiak and Rick Dennison, who are familiar with Paradis, and offering a $50M sum should get him in town. This will move Elflein to competing for the LG spot and backing up Paradis at center.



T Ty Nsekhe 2 years / $7M total / $3.5M guaranteed



I wanted the Vikings to nab Nsekhe in free agency two years ago, and I want him back again. Nsekhe has possibly been the best swing tackle in the NFL, serving at LT and RT for the Redskins. I would like to bring in Nsekhe as the primary swing tackle, but also give him a chance to be the LG. He has the size to play guard, and if he fails there, then we have the league's best backup tackle, so I'll be happy with that.



HB T. J. Yeldon 2 years / $5.5M / $1.75M guaranteed



I think making a small investment at the HB position makes sense during free agency, and Yeldon would qualify as a high-upside flier. Yeldon struggled in his first two seasons with the Jaguars, but the latest two seasons he's run for a 4.36 YPC and 85 catches. He hauled in 4 receiving TDs and thrived as Leonard Fournette's compliment in the passing game, though he did get some boosts thanks to a ton of garbage time. Cousins could use a safety value HB to pass to, and it doesn't seem like Cook is going to fill that role.



DE William Hayes 1/$3M



This is a simple depth addition who may not end up making the team, but the 34 year old Hayes is one of the league's best rotational DEs. The problem is that he blew his ACL this past season - he's the one who tore his knee up while trying not to rough a QB during a sack. He's an insurance policy behind Griffen (and behind Weatherly) in case anything happens to him. You can never have too many DEs!



S Mike Mitchell 1/$1M



With Sendejo and Iloka gone, there are plenty of decent veteran safeties who will be willing to sign for next to nothing. Mitchell was a starter for the Steelers in 2017 and ended up as a reserve for the Colts in 2018, and played very well until injuring his calf and ending up on the IR. He'll be 32 in June, and while age and injury could be concerns, he won't be guaranteed a roster spot. Jayron Kearse may prove himself to be the next man up at safety anyways.



WR Travis Benjamin 1/$1.5M



Finally, I'll add another WR. Benjamin is slated to make $6.5M this season for the Chargers, but they aren't going to pay their 4th WR that much, so I'm projecting that he gets cut. Benjamin is a deep threat who won't do much else outside of that (he had a poor 2018 season when on the field)... but he was a very good punt returner in 2017, and I'm pegging him as my replacement to Marcus Sherels.



Cap Room Remaining:
$4.1M




Draft



Do note that this is a very early mock and I don't know that much about the draft prospects yet.



Pick 1-18: G Cody Ford



The Vikings don't just need to spend draft picks on offensive linemen, they need to spend picks on high-end O-line talent. Cody Ford qualifies as that, as the 6' 5" 335 pound man is not only massive but also quick on his feet. He's played right tackle at Oklahoma, but many project him to end up as a guard. Ford should be able to fill a guard spot in his rookie season without many problems and finally put some stitches in the bloody wound that the Vikings have tried to put band-aids on.



Pick 2-50: DT Isaiah Buggs



This is the best draft to take a DT in the 2nd or 3rd round; the reason being that the 1st round talent on the D-line is the best I've ever seen it. There are 7-8 interior DL first round prospects, meaning that good prospects like Buggs will slip down the draft board because of talented guys ahead of him. He notched 13.5 tackels for loss and 9.5 sacks on his second year starting on the D-line at Alabama, and he runs a sub 5.00 40'. With production and athletsicm, he should help fill the whole left by losing Richardson in free agency.



Pick 3-82: WR Terry McLaurin



Scouting WRs has proven to be incredibly difficult for NFL scouts and armchair GMs like myself. McLaurin wasn't a top target at Ohio State, but he's received rave reviews for his route running and hands. McLaurin also averaged 20 yards a catch over the 2018 season. I imagine Terry as a WR who can win the 3rd WR job and potentially step in for Diggs or Thielen for a few games if injury strikes.



Pick 4-114: TE Josh Oliver



Perhaps if Spielman throughs enough darts at mid-round TEs, one will eventually pan out. Oliver was successful as a receiving TE at San Diego State, going for 709 yards and 4 TDs. Since Rudolph is sticking around in this projection, I'll have another young TE push him and perhaps take his job in 2020.



Pick 6-180: G/C Sean Krepsz



I'm just throwing darts at this point. Krepsz would play guard or center with his size (6' 5" 325 pounds) and has played three seasons as a starting center in Nevada. Perhaps Krepsz can be the next Brandon Fusco - a late round OL who can become a starter in the future. For now, he'll back up both guard and center, just like Elflein.



Pick 6-comp: CB Saivion Smith



Here's a project for Zimmer to work on - Smith didn't play very much at Alabama, but he turned in good performances when he did get to play (3 ints, 5 passes knocked down). A late pick like this is perfect for drafting a great athlete who didn't get chances to play in college, and he could be developed into something in the future. Plus he's 6'1" 200 lbs, so it's not like he'll be limited as a nickel corner.



Pick 7-comp: LB Khalil Hodge



Time for Spielman's obligatory 7th round linebacker! Hodge racked up the stat sheet at Buffalo with 298 tackles in two seasons. The small school prospect doesn't stack up quite as well athletically as other LBs, but he'd make for a great special teamer and solid reserve.



Pick 7-comp: K Matt Gay



Alright, so I usually try not to draft kickers, but the end of the 7th round is a perfectly acceptable time to do it. Gay has hit 54 / 63 FGs in his past two seasons at Utah (85.7%) and can hit 50+ yard kicks reguarly. Unlike Walsh or Carlson, I haven't found anything on him about having streaks of inaccuracy, so sign me up and please don't choke your job away! Oh, and you'll be facing a UDFA kicker for your job, so don't get comfortable!


Alright... so let's see where that leaves us:



So that leaves us finished with just $2.03M in cap space, but we made it. Let's take a look at the hypothetical depth chart:





I'm pretty happy with this roster, as I think I've fixed most the problems on the team. I know some will complain about the backup QB, but I'm ready for Sloter to be the #2. Maybe the only change I would make, looking back, is to draft a tackle in the 3rd/4th round to develop behind Reiff and O'Neill. I guess I was thinking that phase 2 of the "fix the O-line plan" would be to find a prospect to develop at LT in 2020. Plus if neither Nsekhe nor Elflein worked at LG, then we'd fix the spot for good in 2020.  The defense should be fine, and the new young guys will need to step up to replace Richardson and Barr.

Alright, that's enough from me, but what about from you? I'd love to hear about what you like or don't like in my plans - what would you tweak?

We're back to the NFL Offseason - and you know what time it is! The 4th Annual Guide to the Offseason! Before we start, just a reminder, this is not an article about predicting what will happen, but

The good news is: the 2018 Vikings weren't the worst three-and-out team in recent memory. The bad news is: Stefanski was much worse than Flipper.

The Vikings had 54 virtual three-and-outs, which was 4th worst in the league this year. Virtual three-and-out basically meaning: three offensive plays with no first down, and the drive ending in a punt, FG attempt, fumble, INT, downs, safety, etc. Only the Jets (68), Cardinals (62), and Bills (57) had more. Seattle tied us with 54.

The Saints had the fewest in the league at 27, followed by the Rams 28, and Chiefs 29. Oddly enough the Bucs were 4th best at 30. The Rams had the fewest conventional three-and-outs at 19 (three plays and a punt).

The 54 three-and-outs meant the Vikings went three-and-out on 28.7% of their drives, which was 5th worst. Stefanski went three-and-out on 13 of 35 drives, or 37.1%, which would be worst in the league. The Jets were at 34.2% for the season.

And the Vikings weren't even close to being the worst team in recent memory, which surprised me. That title belongs to the 2005 49ers, spearheaded by none other than the QB whisperer himself, Mike McCarthy (who was their OC at the time), had an astounding 89 three-and-outs, or 45.2% of their drives. 77 of those were the conventional three plays and a punt. The Packers hired him as their HC the following year, so go figure.

The Vikings' worst three-and-out season since 2004 came in 2006, where they had 64 (32.5%), which was tied for 36th worst out of 480 teams during that time. So the 2018 Vikings were only the 2nd worst Vikings team, and only the 146th worst overall. The 2008 Colts were the best with only 22 three-and-outs. The 2004 Vikings only had 28 (16.7%), and last year we finished with 46 (24.9%). The 2009 Vikings were the 4th worst Vikings team with 52 (27.1%). The 2015 Vikings were the 2nd best Vikings team with only 29 three-and-outs (16.6%). Technically the best percentage wise. The good news is: the 2018 Vikings weren't the worst three-and-out team in recent memory. The bad news is: Stefanski was much worse than Flipper. The Vikings had 54 virtual three-and-outs,

The Vikings have some interesting decisions to make in the next couple of years regarding their star players, so I thought it was time to take a look at what we may be looking at in contract terms.

As it stands now, the Vikings are estimated to have $50.5 Million cap space in 2018.

Based on current position contracts in the NFL and each players production, I would estimate the following scenarios:




ANTHONY BARR

He's producing at a high level and will earn $12.3 million next year after the Vikings picked up his 5th year option.

The current high mark at the position is $12.5 million AAV set by the Jamie Collins contract last year, so Barr would be looking to better that.

Considering the yearly rises in the salary cap annually, my estimate would be around the $14 million mark AAV.



ERIC KENDRICKS

He isn't in the same class as Luke Kuechly, but nobody else is either.

I have Kendricks pegged at around the same level as Brandon Marshall/Danny Trevathan, who earn $8 million and $7 million AAV respectively, and his stats are at that point.

So I would expect Kendricks to be looking for something in the $8 million range AAV



DANIELLE HUNTER

This could be the big one.

The current high mark is Olivier Vernon, who signed an $85 million contract last year with an AAV of $17 million.

However Hunter has to prove that he can produce as a starter,with opponents game planning for him better than they have in previous years. Currently Hunter has 3 sacks compared to Griffen who has 9 and is second in the NFL. So based on an admittedly small sample size, Hunter is not anywhere near earning $17 million. He's more likely around $10.5/11 million AAV.

The caveat to all that of course is the ability of Mike Zimmer to develop young pass rushers. If Hunter can take the next step and elevate his game to where Griffen is, then Hunter could well be looking at $20 million AAV.



STEFON DIGGS

This is where opinions will no doubt be divided.

The current high is Antonio Brown whose contract pays him $17 million AAV, and Diggs is no Antonio Brown.

Based on his current level of production he would probably be looking around $10/11 million AAV. However the question becomes, do you want to pay a guy that amount of money when he can't stay healthy?

More than any player on this list, Diggs could well be affected by the achievements of other players currently on the roster, namely Laquon Treadwell and Michael Floyd. If one of these guys is able to step up and prove themselves as a reliable alternative, then Diggs may not be in a strong position from a negotiation standpoint. However if Diggs can get back to full health and finish the season without missing any more games, then play a full season next year,he may well be in line to force the Vikings hand. All three of these players have certainly had their issues, and with the lack of red zone production so far this season the Vikings may well decide to dip in to the free agent receiver market in 2018 with Jarvis Landry and Davante Adams among a host of options.

So there you have it. An early outline of what may be required to keep some key pieces on the roster, but what must be remembered is that the Vikings only have one QB signed for next year, and that is rookie Kyle Sloter.

What the Vikings do at the QB position is going to be the big decision for the offseason, and may well impact what happens to the above scenarios.

All salary cap info courtesy OTCThe Vikings have some interesting decisions to make in the next couple of years regarding their star players, so I thought it was time to take a look at what we may be looking at in contract terms.

Welcome back to the 5th Strat-O-Matic simulation where the Vikings will try to get their first win against the Dolphins! I think we'll be able to get the win today, but let's see what happened in the simulation:



BOX SCORE


Other:
Penalties: Dolphins 8, Vikings 5

-Notes-

Well, well. Finally, the Vikings win a game in Strat-O-Matic football, and it was a blowout by the end. The Vikings defense finally showed up in its true form as the Dolphins offense was completely anemic. Check this out:

Tannehill's completions by quarter:
Q1: 2
Q2: 7
Q3: 0
Q4: 1

Yes, that's right, even in garbage time, the Dolphins couldn't complete passes to save their lives. The Vikings defense had more interceptions than the Fins had completions in the 2nd half!! It didn't help that the Dolphins' top receiver, Kenny Stills, had a serious injury on the second drive of the game. The Vikings didn't even sack Tannehill once, they simply dropped back into coverage and won the game that way. The Dolphins did have 3 drops (two big ones on 3rd down by Amendola and Butler) that really hurt them. The running game was average, but near the end of the game, it stopped working with Gore gaining just 12 yards in the 2nd half. One noteworthy bit - I called a trick play to have WR Parker throw a pass to Brice Butler, and the play actually worked for a 1st down, but it was called back due to a holding penalty on the O-line.

On offense for the Vikings, I went for a ground-and-pound approach that worked well against a below-average Miami defense. Cook had a few solid runs (the longest went for 16 yards) and while he still got stuffed for no gain a few times, he did the job. I schemed some passes to him as well, and I was rewarded with 158 total yards from him. Cousins had some problems in the first half (two lost fumbles), but he was efficient and converted most of the 3rd downs I asked him to. Diggs had a lot more success than Thielen did, and I made sure not a single pass went to Treadwell. Zylstra, who didn't end up in the box score, was targeted twice but dropped a pass. Abdullah got some carries late in the 4th and broke a 20 yarder, which was cool to see.

That should do it for this edition of Strat-O-Matic Simulation... I'll be back in January if the Vikings make it to the playoffs.Welcome back to the 5th Strat-O-Matic simulation where the Vikings will try to get their first win against the Dolphins! I think we'll be able to get the win today, but let's see what happened in the

For some, the NFL offseason is the most boring part of the year; while I mostly agree, it leaves plenty of time to write speculation articles! Hooray! It's time for the 3rd annual Danchat's Guide to the Offseason where I will write a guide of how I would manage the Vikings roster. This is not an article about predicting what will happen, but I guess I can show off if I do happen to nail any of these predictions. 

This year we'll have some spreadsheets to show how the cap situation will play out:

Vikings current cap:



So at the moment they've got about $53.3M in cap. Now, let's tinker with this roster!

Pre-Free Agency Moves

Releases

HB Latavius Murray - saves $5.15M

Here's a move I don't think the Vikings will actually make but I think they should. Dalvin Cook should be the unquestioned HB as he recovers from an ACL tear, and they don't need his insurance policy, Murray, to take up $6.35M of cap room. Murray was a average HB last season and was an effective power back able to score those rushing TDs in the redzone. He still has little ability to break tackles and isn't a threat on 1st and 10. The Vikings can go cheaper at backup HB and find a more effective player.

DT Sharrif Floyd - saves $6.76M

Floyd is still under contract because his contract tolled due to spending the whole season on the NF-injury list. His career is probably over after a botched knee scope that wrecked one of his nerves.

Restricted Free Agency

LG Nick Easton - 2nd Round Tender (estimated $2.83M)

Easton was a UDFA, so the Vikings will risk losing Easton for no compensation if they give him an original round tender (will save approx. $1M). It's hard to say how well Easton played as PFF didn't like his play, but he was a much better fit than Alex Boone was. He will likely enter camp as the starting LG but the Vikings should add some competition there.

G/T Jeremiah Sirles - 2nd Round Tender ($2.83M)

This was a tough decision, but I've decided to slightly overpay for a solid backup offensive lineman. Sirles can fill in at guard without being overwhelmed and is a replacement-level RT and will be active every game in case an injury happens. 2nd year player Danny Isidora will push him for that role but I think Sirles should keep it.

S Anthony Harris - 2nd Round Tender ($2.83M)

I didn't project Harris to make last season's roster, but he ended up starting 3 games and was a surprisingly good player. He inflicted a forced fumble on Rams WR Cooper Kupp at the 1 yard line, completely shifting the momentum of that game. He's worth the extra cash as he was also a UDFA and will be claimed if the Vikings try to give him an original round tender. The Vikings no longer have to worry if Sendejo misses any games due to injury.

C Cornelius Edison - No Tender - The Vikings can re-sign him at the minimum salary if they want him back.

Re-signing UFAs

CB Marcus Sherels - 2/4/2 (years/total/guaranteed)

I can't say goodbye to Sherels yet. He's a great special teamer and was still effective at returning punts, even though he hasn't taken one back for a score in a while. It would make sense to groom a returner to the future, though.

QB Case Keenum - 3/60/25

Here's the part that you've been waiting for, or so I presume. Of the primary options at QB for the Vikings - Keenum, Bradford, Bridgewater, and Cousins - I have decided to pick Keenum. Keenum basically went 13-4 with this team as they surprised the NFL as they took a deep run into the playoffs. Keenum has the intangibles - he has that "it" factor, he thrives on 3rd downs, he dodges sacks like a boss, and he can take hits and shake them off without his knees exploding. When the team had virtually blown yet another playoff game away, Keenum brought this team back with a great throw to Stefon Diggs. The cons are that he doesn't have that good of accuracy and can miss trickier passes and he'll sometimes make foolish deep throws and he doesn't have much of a track record. 

$20M is a lot to give Keenum and maybe they'd be able to negotiate it down to $17-18M, but seeing Alex Smith and Jimmy Garoppolo sign new deals recently, I see Keenum is going to be paid. This deal locks Keenum in as the 2018 QB but gives flexibility in case he falls apart and they need to release him before 2019 starts. While he isn't the type of guy who's going to win a Super Bowl on his own, I think he's the best of the available options to get us deep into the playoffs.

Leaving in Free Agency

QB Sam Bradford and QB Teddy Bridgewater

I can see Bradford signing a one year deal laiden with incentives, perhaps in a place like Arizona where they'd develop a young QB behind him. Teddy should sign a similar deal and compete for a starting job. For some reason I feel like Buffalo is where he'll end up. I would like to keep one of them as a backup but it isn't realistic to think they will want to return in that capacity unless Teddy's deal tolls, which doesn't look like it'll happen right now.

HB Jerick McKinnon

I really want him to return but he wants to be a feature back and I have a feeling somebody out there will pay him. The Vikings will need to find a backup HB who can replace his explosiveness and catching ability.

CB Terence Newman and CB Tramaine Brock

Newman did a very good job as the nickel corner, but he played two poor games in the playoffs. He'll be turning 40 soon and I think it's time to move on. Brock was a good starting corner in 2016 but when he was on the field in 2017 for the Vikings, he looked lost. He could compete for a reserve spot in 2018 if the Vikings think he'd be better with a full offseason with Zimmer under his belt.

WR Michael Floyd

Can you believe the incentives on Floyd's deal that would have triggered if he reached 1,000 yards? They should have triggered at 200 yards! He has about one year left bouncing between the 5th WR spot of several different teams' rosters before he's toast.

K Kai Forbath

Forbath's 2017 was an adventure but he proved he still belongs in the NFL. First it was missing PATs, then it was FGs getting blocked... the Vikings should look for better options. Having him return with a rookie kicker to compete with wouldn't be a terrible idea.

DT Tom Johnson and DT Shamar Stephen

Both DTs played well in 2017, but I have other plans at DT. Johnson is 33 but should push for $4M a year as a rotational guy and Stephen should make a little less.

OLB Lamur, HB Sankey, HB Brown, LS Overbaugh

They're backups, they can return on the 90 man roster at the minimum price if needed.

Extension(s)

Extend WR Stefon Diggs to a 4 year, $53M deal with $25M guaranteed

Diggs at WR is an incredibly crucial piece to the puzzle for the Vikings offense, so even though he has a knack to get injured, I think it's a price willing to be paid.
I spread the $25M guaranteed over 5 years, so he gets a $5M bonus in 2018, upping his cap. This probably isn't how the extension will happen but I consider it to be a bonus to Diggs as an incentive to take a little less ($12M a year) over the length of the contract.

Trade(s)

Alright, so I was so, so very close to trading away Anthony Barr... but in the end 1) I couldn't find a better LB to replace him with and 2) I didn't need to dump his $12M contract. I think Barr is a little overrated and isn't much of an impact player, but it'd be foolish to ship him off for a 3rd round pick at this point.

Trade WR Treadwell to the Panthers for a conditional 6th round pick.

I liked the Treadwell pick when it happened... but it's clear he never regained his agility from his college days after a nasty injury in a bowl game. The Vikings would lose over $4M in cap space if they straight-up cut him, so I bet they could ship him off to a WR-needy team like Carolina for a late pick. 


Free Agency

Sign G/T Justin Pugh 4/32.8/14

With Joe Berger retiring, the Vikings need a RG who can step in and upgrade this offensive line immediately. Pugh can do that. The Giants played him at RT this season and he didn't play very well and missed 8 games due to injury - but that just makes the price more affordable for the Vikes. The 4 previous seasons he spent at guard and he excelled there, so while they are taking a bit of a gamble here, Pugh should be an impact addition to the O-line.

Sign CB Nickell Robey-Coleman 3/13.5/4.5

With Newman moving on and Alexander probably not ready for nickel duties, the Vikings should try to shore up this position. Robey-Coleman was one of the league's best nickel corners as he was the Rams' best corner according to PFF. The starting lineup of Rhodes-Waynes-RobeyC should be one of the best in the NFL if Waynes can take a step up from 2017.

Sign DT Denico Autry 3/10.5/4

Autry is a passing rushing interior lineman for the Raiders who's fresh off a 5 sack season. He's around the talent level of Tom Johnson but he'll be 28 years old instead of 34. Autry should rotate with Jaleel Johnson next to Joseph and be able to bring some heat while not being a liability in the run stopping game.

Sign HB Rex Burkhead 2/7/3.5

I wanted this to happen last year and I'm going to do it again! Burkhead was an effective HB for the Patriots in 2017 but had to put up with 3 other HBs, so he didn't get to touch the ball much. When he does, he's one of the league's best receiving HBs, can pass block very effectively, and he's a scrappy runner. He won't outrun the defense, but he's a cheaper and more effective variant to Latavius Murray.

Sign WR Donte Moncrief 1/5/3

I really don't think this one is going to happen, but I'd love to get Moncrief in as the 3rd WR. He had a nightmare season without Luck in Indy but when he has a good QB slinging him the ball, he was an effective redzone receiver who functioned as a great #2 to Hilton. His value is at a low right now and I think he'll sign a one year deal... make it happen, Spielman!

Cap room after signings:



Alright, so we have $13M left to sign rookies and the practice squad with, which should be enough to have $4-5M left when the season starts. The Vikings could save more cap by cutting Robison or Wright, but they won't be forced to.


NFL Draft

I haven't studied the upcoming draft class very much yet, so all of these picks are going to be shots in the dark. Here goes:

Pick 1-30: T Desmond Harrison

The Vikings could use a tackle to develop behind Rieff and Remmers. Harrison was kicked out of Texas due to drug tests and played at West Georgia, but he's got the skill set to be a 1st-2nd round pick. The Vikings should be willing to take a big risk on a guy who has the talent to be an NFL tackle because the number of prospects with that ability will not be hanging around at this point in the draft.

Pick 2-30: QB Luke Falk

Drafting a QB here is going to raise some eyebrows and this was definitely not my plan, but I decided the backup QBs available in free agency just weren't that good. The Vikings should try to develop a long-term solution behind Keenum similarly to how the Patriots have drafted QBs recently. Falk has put up great stats and has an accurate arm and is a definite prospect. This doesn't mean I'm giving up on Sloter - the Vikings have shown they can carry 3 QBs on the roster - and if Keenum actually does turn out to be a long term option, Falk can be traded for draft picks in the future. 

Pick 3-30: DE Jalyn Holmes

Holmes' profile intrigued me as he was a rotational pass rusher at Ohio State and only had 2 sacks, but his measurables and speed stack up. Yes, he reminds me of Danielle Hunter. The Vikings need to have a deeper pass rush like the Eagles and Holmes could rotate in 15 times a game and provide a spark when needed.

Pick 5-30: HB Justin Jackson

The late rounds are a perfect place to find effective HBs. Guys like Kareem Hunt, Alvin Kamara, and Jordan Howard have been drafted between the 3 to 5th rounds and the Vikings need a guy behind Cook and Burkhead. Jackson played for a uncompetitive Northwestern team but still ran for 1,311 yards and caught 44 passes. Perhaps the 5'11" 193 lbs back could prove to be a competent receiving HB.

Pick 6-30: K Daniel Carlson

Alright, so I don't recommend you draft kickers before the 7th round, but I'm doing this because the Vikings don't have a 7th rounder and it nicely completes all of the Vikings' needs. Drafting the #1 kicker in the draft class hasn't been a great idea the past few years and they're not easy to pick out. 


Whew... so that's all, folks! What do you think of this Vikings roster - could they go all the way this year? What modifications would you make if you were the GM? 

Sources: Spotrac (Cap numbers and Contract Estimations) and WalterFootball (draft prospects)For some, the NFL offseason is the most boring part of the year; while I mostly agree, it leaves plenty of time to write speculation articles! Hooray! It's time for the 3rd annual Danchat's Guide to

Welcome back to another round of Strat-O-Matic football, where I'll be simulating tomorrow's Sunday Night battle between the Vikings and the Bears! So far the Vikings have gone 0-3 in these simulations, so let's hope for a win!

Before we get to the summary of the game, I'll give a quick summary of the first few drives that were scripted. I gave a special opportunity to Funkytown to coordinate the first three drives of this game! Let's see how it goes!



Well, so the first two drives didn't go as well as hoped, but Funky's playcalling got more creative on the 3rd drive with 25 yards from Ham and a deep pass to Treadwell?! Are you kidding me?
Alright, let's see how the rest of the game went:



BOX SCORE


-Other notes-
Penalties: Vikings 2 (2 declined), Bears 6.


* My thoughts *

Oh come on, are you kidding me?! The Vikings hold the lead for the entire game until the final 18 seconds? Boy, I just can't get the Vikings to win. Even with the flukey punt return TD that Tarik Cohen scored to start the 4th quarter, the Vikings regained a 2 possession lead, but they blew it away. Trubisky hit Allen Robinson on a 70 yard pass and ended up with the FG to bring it to a one possession game, and I couldn't quite get the Vikings to close out the game. On a crucial 3rd and 4 with 2:15 to go in the 4th quarter, I called a pass play to Rudolph that fell incomplete (I couldn't trust the run game, Cook and Murray had no room to run today). The Bears saved a timeout and were able to hit Allen Robinson on a 45 yard pass and eventually put the game away. And, of course, Cody Parkey hit all his kicks even though I downgraded him due to last week's game.

Performance-wise, the passing game did its job, though they had a hard time scoring in the second half. After Khalil Mack's 2 sacks on the first 2 drives, I called some quick passing plays to avoid sacks. His interception wasn't his fault as he simply heaved a deep pass in desperation time. Kyle Rudolph is unstoppable in Strat-O-Matic football, as he had a catch-and-run 70 yard play that wouldn't have happened in real life.

Despite winning the turnover battle and sacking Trubisky 5 times, the Vikings just couldn't beat the Bears offense. Too many big plays and first downs to Cohen, Miller, and Robinson left the pass defense helpless. The run defense shut down Howard and Cohen and even prevented Trubisky from going on any long runs.

The good news, Vikings fans, is that in all 3 of the previous Strat-O-Matic games, the Vikings lost, but in real life they won, so here's hoping they pick up a 4th win tomorrow! I'll be back in December for another Strat-O-Matic simulation, and we sure as heck better win that one!

Feel free to post your thoughts. If you'd like to call an offense drive for the next edition, just ask, as I've had fun seeing how the "rehearsed plays" have gone.

[Check out the Chi-Town version of this article here!]Welcome back to another round of Strat-O-Matic football, where I'll be simulating tomorrow's Sunday Night battle between the Vikings and the Bears! So far the Vikings have gone 0-3 in these

Welcome back to another round of Strat-O-Matic football, where I'll be simulating the rematch of the Vikings-Eagles NFC Championship game!

Before we get to the summary of the game, I'm having a special feature to start this game. I gave a special opportunity to one of those rubes out there to call their own plays - the first two drives of this game will be called by honorary offensive coordinator Reignman! Let's see how it goes!


Well, there you go! Reignman's pass-happy gameplan worked for the first drive, although Cousins threw short of the sticks on 3rd down, which I'm sure infuriated him. Thankfully I wasn't going to let the Vikings punt there and Rudolph got to play the role of the hero. The 37 yard TD pass was actually caught 10 yards out, but the Eagles defense completely failed to cover/tackle him and he was able to cash it in for the TD.

Unfortunately Reignman's love for throwing the ball downfield strategy ended with a pick on the very first play of the next drive, and the Eagles would take a 10-7 lead thanks to Cousins' bad throw. 

Alright, now let's see how the entire game went:



BOX SCORE


(other notes: Eagles HB Clement and HB Cook were assumed to be out with injuries. Eagles had 9 penalties and Vikings had 5.)


Once again, I'm left having to make excuses. First off, my Strat-O-Matic games average about 26 points per team or around 50 points combined per game. Today we 83 and nearly 1,000 yards passing, and I can tell that in around 100-200 games I have simulated, I've never had a 500 yard passer. And of course, the game somehow knows who the Vikings are. Of course the Vikings miss a winning FG and two other kicks! I set both teams to "below average pass defense" and all hell broke loose (there are also "poor" and "very poor" ratings that would have lead to even more yards!).

After Cousins' two interceptions in the first quarter, he was nearly perfect from then on. He did get strip-sacked in overtime, but there were only 3 sacks in an insane 71 dropbacks. With the Eagles having the best run defense in football, I mostly kept the ball out of Boone's and Murray's hands. Roc Thomas fumbled the ball the first carry he got, so I immediately placed him back on the bench. Diggs and Thielen were about what you'd expect, but each had one drop on key plays. The Eagles could not contain Rudolph as he added a 50 yard catch near the end of regulation... I wish he could play like that in real life. Treadwell also is much better on paper than in real life.

Meanwhile, the Vikings' defense was as atrocious as it looked on paper. Sure, they actually stopped the run and forced a fumble (who knew they could do that?), but they managed one sack on 58 Wentz dropbacks... and Weatherly's sack came with 2:10 left in OT!! That's 68 minutes with a single sack! The pass defense was about the same as it was against the Rams - even mediocre WRs like Jordan Matthews got huge plays with no effort. Nelson Agholor dropped two passes but still dominated the secondary. The Vikings dropped an interception, because of course they would.

But, in the end, Bailey missed 2 FGs, one being a game winner, and Jake Elliott hit his, though those holding penalties on two of the kicks (!!) made things more dramatic. That's some crazy stuff right there.

I'm sorry for the third straight simulation I couldn't get the Vikings a win... but this'd make an exciting game in real life, wouldn't you think? Any thoughts from you guys?

Is there anyone out there who would like a crack at being the offensive coordinator for a few drives? Funkytown ?
Welcome back to another round of Strat-O-Matic football, where I'll be simulating the rematch of the Vikings-Eagles NFC Championship game! Before we get to the summary of the game, I'm

Welcome to my first regular season Strat-O-Matic Simulation! If you didn't see how the test run went in the preseason, you can see how everything works  here.

I'm just going to go ahead and show off the box score and the game summary. Maybe at some point I could upload some in-game updates or something else to jazz things up?



(other stats - Penalties: SF 6, MIN 11)

- Game Summary - 

1st Quarter
SF punt.
SF DE Thomas tackles HB Cook in endzone, safety (SF 2-0).
SF punt (partially blocked).
MIN punt.
[MIN LB Kendricks departs with injury, ruled out.]
SF 4 yard TD pass Garoppolo to HB Bredia (SF 9-0).

2nd Quarter
MIN 2 yard TD run HB Cook (SF 9-7).
[SF C Richburg departs with injury, ruled out.]
SF Garoppolo intercepted by FS Smith.
MIN K Carlson 53 yard FG is good (MIN 10-9).
SF punt.
MIN punt.
SF 55 yard TD pass Garoppolo to Garcon (extra two is good on pass to Kittle, SF 17-10).
MIN Cousins intercepted by CB Witherspoon, returned for TD (SF 24-10).
MIN punt.
SF 31 yard TD pass Garoppolo to Garcon (SF 31-10).

3rd Quarter
MIN punt.
[SF HB Breida departs with injury, questionable to return.]
SF K Gould 41 yard FG is good (SF 34-10).
MIN Cousins intercepted by FS Colbert.
SF punt.
MIN Cousins intercepted by CB Sherman, ball is fumbled back to Vikings on return.
MIN Cousins 40 yard TD pass to WR Zylstra (extra two is good on pass to Rudolph, SF 34-18).
SF Garoppolo intercepted by CB Waynes.
MIN Cousins intercepted by DT Mitchell.

4th Quarter
SF K Gould 32 yard FG is blocked by CB Hill.
MIN 47 yard TD run HB Cook (extra two is no good, SF 34-24).
SF punt.
MIN 7 yard TD pass Cousins to HB Cook (SF 34-31).
SF runs out clock.


-My thoughts-

Boy... what a total disaster. Sure, if you just looked at the score, you'd say things didn't go terribly, but they really did. Kirk Cousins was a total travesty through the first three quarters of football until finally looking like himself in the 4th quarter. I was really hoping I would get a normal-ish Strat-O-Matic Football game, but today was a day for total insanity, horrible luck, and bizarre moments.

First off, a safety in Strat-O-Football? Seriously? I've played at least 150 games and I don't recall ever having a safety. The 49ers were able to down the ball at the 1 yard line, and I tried to call the safest plays I could for the Vikings, but Cook ended up catching a pass for a 2 yard loss, resulting in the safety.

After that, the game proceeded rather normally until everything broke loose in the late 2nd quarter. Garoppolo attempted two deep passes in the quarter and went 2 for 2 with 86 yards and 2 TDs, and Cousins went 0 for 3 with a pick 6 to Witherspoon, which was a very lucky roll for the Niners. Not to mention the penalties were absolutely brutal for the Vikings - 5 holding penalties, with 4 of them just so happening on 3rd down! A 40 yard TD to Thielen was erased, Zylstra's first career catch for 35 yards was erased, plus two catches for Diggs never happened either. All 4 for first downs too. That killed the offense early.

Of course, Cousins had to toss 3 interceptions in the 3rd quarter, including a knockaway by a SF D-lineman that was caught by the nose tackle, Earl Mitchell. Because of course it did! Thankfully the defense finally stepped up and shut down Garoppolo, but it was too late. Alfred Morris was just decent enough to get some key first downs.

Holton Hill's blocked field goal made this one a game again, and Dalvin Cook did his absolute best even though I had to mostly call passing plays. He scored the 47 yard TD with 7:32 on the clock, and the next TD pass to Cook happened with 2:04 left and 2 timeouts. Unfortunately, the 49ers had Morris run up the middle several times and he got 2 first downs, ending the game there.

I think Strat-O-Matic did a fine job representing a crazy Vikings loss, because you all know they are capable of this. Here's hoping we don't see anything like this for the real game tomorrow.

I hope you guys enjoyed this Strat-O-Matic Simulation and I'll be back sometime in the future for another, but I don't plan on doing this every week. Maybe Week 5?

One more note. To make things more exciting, perhaps we could get some input from y'all at Purple Pain. Would anyone be interested at drawing up a drive for the offense to follow? Similarly to how many offensive coordinators have first drives of games completely rehearsed, perhaps you guys would like to give a gameplan for a single drive in a Strat-O-Matic game? Give me a shout if you're interested.Welcome to my first regular season Strat-O-Matic Simulation! If you didn't see how the test run went in the preseason, you can see how everything works

Welcome to a brand new series exclusive to Purple Pain - Strat-O-Matic Simulation! In anticipation of the Vikings-Broncos game tonight, I'm kicking off a new series that I plan to run once a month (four games, five/six if playoffs) and this is the test run. The goal will be to simulate the game with the most realistic results possible...

But first, what is Strat-o-Matic Football?



Here's a picture of my set-up. You'll notice that in addition to the standard board game, I have a bevy of add-ons that I've made myself over the years.

The original way to play the game can be seen here:



Oh yeah, we've got the 2008 Vikings here! As you can see, the normal way to play the game is to have a deck of cards for each team and every player has their own results dependent on dice rolls. However, the 2018 rosters won't be available for at least another year and they're quite expensive. So what did I do? Yup, I created my own system so that I can plug in any team with any players without creating their own cards or buying anything. You sure learn how to be creative when you're a cheapskate!

Now, before we go any further, let's see how the gameplay works. See below:



On a typical play, you will first have the offense call a play. Your choices are linebuck, off-tackle, end run (running plays) or flat pass, short pass, or long pass (passes). You will then select a player of whom will be running the ball or catching the football. In this situation, I've selected "Short Pass" and "Split End", so Kirk Cousins will be throwing a pass to Stefon Diggs here. Next, the defense (usually a second player) chooses to expect either the run or the pass. I also play the defense, and I randomly select one of the two, but I do have the defense defend the pass in obvious passing situations and vice versa.

You'll see I've rolled the dice and ended up with a 5-11. The white die determines whether we use the QB card or the Defense Card (1-3 QB, 4-6 Def). Since I rolled a 5, we'll refer to the Defense Passing Chart that I'm pointing to. We then choose the skill of the defense - either "Very Poor, Poor, Average to Poor, Average to Good, Good, or Great" - and find the number that the two red die add up to. Since it's an 11, Diggs has caught a 12 yard pass. They'll now have a first down at the 37 yard line (see on the right).

As you can guess, there's a ton of strategy here - linebucks are runs up the middle that don't give you a ton of yards but usually don't fail, throwing deep leads to more sacks and interceptions but can result in huge plays - and on.

I'm sure you still have many questions, so I'll try to answer them. Wondering how the players' talent level works?



I've got most of the Vikings QBs, HBs, FBs, WRs, TEs, and special teams here. For QBs, I had to determine short, medium, and deep accuracy, awareness (throwing interceptions), and scrambling ability. HBs have their own strengths for the three type of running plays and receiving ability, WRs and TEs' ratings are Catching-Speed based, and so on. To calculate these ratings, I looked at stats, PFF ratings, Madden ratings, and other sources. It's rather subjective, but that's what makes it my simulation. The opponent's defense is also placed here and ranked: the Broncos have one of the best run defenses in the league, but their pass defense stinks (based on 2017 stats).



Here's the receiving and passing charts. Each one is basically a generic player card that changes depending on the player's talent. The changes are color-coded so that receivers with high Catch ratings catch more passes, faster receivers get more yards, accurate QBs complete more passes, and risky QBs throw more interceptions, and so on. I put a lot of work into these charts, trying to make sure the numbers would balance with yards per play... there's a lot of complexity here.



Alright, here's one more chart for you: we've got some varied yardage plays above with interception return scenarios, a whole bunch of penalties, and special teams. If you were wondering what the black die was for, one side has an X that causes a penalty in conjunction with a white 1-3 (there's a 1/12 chance of getting a penalty). After that, there will be a 50-50 chance of either team receiving the penalty, and the specific one will be rolled for. I looked up penalty stats to figure out which ones happen most frequently. The kick and punt return results are also based on statistics and better returners will get more yards and more TDs.

Alright, let's finally get onto the game! Since this is a preseason game, I'll be playing the starters for a few drives and pulling them for the backups. As I said earlier, I'm aiming for accuracy here... not for the Vikings to win by 100 points or something ridiculous like that.

Vikings at Broncos Preseason Week 1 - Box Score




(other stats - penalties: MIN 12, DEN 4. Two fumbles (HB Freeman and CB Hughes) were both recovered by the team that lost it, so no turnovers. One sack by DEN (OLB Bradley Chubb))

- Game Summary -

1st Quarter
DEN 38 yard FG is good (3-0).
MIN 48 yard TD pass Cousins to Diggs (7-3).
DEN punt.
MIN punt.

2nd Quarter
DEN 5 yard TD pass Keenum to Butt (D 10-7).
MIN 6 yard TD pass Cousins to Rudolph (M 14-10).
* both teams starters are on the bench now *
DEN 3 yard TD pass Lynch to Heuerman (D 17-14).
MIN punt.
DEN 36 yard FG is good (20-14).

3rd Quarter
MIN punt.
DEN 3 yard TD run R. Freeman. (27-14).
MIN punt.
DEN 1 yard TD run P. Lindsay (34-14).
MIN punt.
DEN 29 yard FG is good (37-14).
MIN punt.

4th Quarter
DEN punt. 
MIN punt. 
DEN 26 yard FG is good (40-14).
MIN turnover on downs.
DEN 7 yard TD pass Kelly to Bell (47-14).
MIN 1 yard TD pass Sloter to Wieneke (47-21).
DEN punt.


Alright... so that didn't go very well. However, the Vikings' starters looked good, so that's all that's important to me. It was totally worth it to have Cousins go deep to Diggs and work on the first attempt! The backups were atrocious, including Siemian and the 2nd team offense. Though Keenum did play a very good game, but he had zero run support. l did what I could to try and jump start the Vikings' offense, but Siemian couldn't complete any passes... against the Broncos backup defense! Yikes! 

The Vikings 2nd and 3rd team defenses could not stop the Broncos offense lead by Paxton Lynch and Chad Kelly. They also had several poorly timed penalties that extended Denver drives - the penalties felt realistic and incredibly annoying! Despite all the passing plays, the Vikings couldn't even register a single sack. 

A few more notes - offensive lines aren't rated at the moment, and I think that's something I'll have to work on adding to the game. It wouldn't be difficult to add Sack % chances for pass blocking, but I'm not quite sure how they'll affect the running game yet. So the Vikings' possibly bad O-line was not a factor here (and the game was played before Easton's injury). 

Anyways, I think that's going to be all from me for now. There is a ton I haven't explained, so go ahead and ask questions and I'll do my best to answer them. I'm planning on having a Vikings VS 49ers simulation as the first regular season attempt. Here's hoping the Vikings don't lose 47-21 tonight!

Welcome to a brand new series exclusive to Purple Pain - Strat-O-Matic Simulation! In anticipation of the Vikings-Broncos game tonight, I'm kicking off a new series that I plan to run once a month

Ready for something completely out of left field? Speaking of left field, it actually has something to do with baseball. A while back I had the idea of trying to implement the advanced statistic called WAR that is commonly used in baseball and try and translate it into the NFL. So I've set some time aside to conduct a fun experiment that will most likely result in any viable or realistic statistics.

You're probably asking yourself, "What the heck is WAR anyways?"

"Wins Above Replacement (WAR) is an attempt by the sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player’s total contributions to their team in one statistic" (Source: Fangraphs.com). MLB statheads like to use this stat to try and calculate the value the team would lose if a certain player had to be replaced by a backup or free agent.

The way WAR is calculated by many websites is rather complicated, but my attempt here is going to be rather simple. It's far more difficult to quantify the performance of a NFL player than a MLB player just because of the wide array of stats baseball players accrue. So for this experiment, I'm going to use PFF ratings only because that's the only method I have that can put all players on the same grading scale (I apologize for using PFF grades so often, but they're basically all I have to do this). This also means that I will not include punters and kickers as I don't have a great way to compare their performances to the rest of the players. Perhaps they could be added later.

First what I'll have to do for this experiment is to find what replacement level actually is. It falls somewhere between the "average" player and "worst" player at each position. After tinkering with several numbers, I have decided to use 35% as the cutoff for replacement level. If a player is worse than 65% of the other players at his position, then he is a "sub-replacement" player and he will carry a negative value.

Ranking all players wasn't easy - I took every single snap played by every single player (even the guys who recorded a total of one snap on the season) and I was able to find replacement level at 35%. Here are the results:





As you can see, some positions, like QB and S, had far superior play and will limit the WAR of players that those positions. That's just how the cookie is going to crumble for this experiement.

Now it's time to calculate the WAR. First I will calculate "PFF grade above Replacement" by subtracting the player's PFF grade minues the replacement level PFF grade shown above. Next, that number will be multiplied by the number of snaps the player played, so their WAR will be amplified by how often they were on the field. Finally, this new value will be multiplied by "Position Weight", which is a way that I can give more value to a certain position. Here is how I did it:

Position Weight

QB - 2.5

HB - 1.3

FB - 0.7

WR - 1.3

TE - 1

LT - 1.5

G - 1

C - 1.1

RT - 1.3

DE - 1.2

Rotational DE - 0.8

DT - 1

Rotational DT - 0.9

LB - 1.1

Base LB - 0.9

Outside CB - 1.2

Nickel CB - 1

FS - 1.2

SS - 1.1


So yes, these measures were incredibly subjective and I picked out the numbers myself. If this were a professional experiment, I would need to thoroughly justify how I came up with all these numbers, but since we're doing this just for fun, I'm not going to spend the time doing so. I can basically manipulate these numbers however I like, but I tried to keep things fair from my viewpoint.

Finally, to calculate the WAR, I divided the subtotal by a number that would allow all values to add up to 14, because that's how many games the Vikings won. That isn't how WAR works in the MLB, but that's not my concern right now. Let's take a look at how the QB position turned out:





So by my [admittedly sketchy] methods, Case Keenum has turned out to be worth 1 and 1/8 Wins Above Replacement. In translation, if the Vikings started a replacement level QB (2017 Joe Flacco) for 92% of the snaps instead of Keenum, they would have lost approximately 1 more game. This might not sound like a big difference, but one win is worth an incredible amount of value in the NFL. This this case, Keenum was responsible for about 8% of the Vikings' wins.

Here are the rest of the results for the Vikings:





And for your viewing pleasure, here are the players ranked by WAR:





-quick analysis-


Some players ended up getting underrated due to league-wide play being good at a position (Joseph at 0.53 is way too low) or bad at a position (Rudolph at 1.22 is generous IMO).

The combo of Diggs and Thielen at WR totaled out to be worth 3.27 WAR. When Diggs was hurt, they got sub-replacement level play from Treadwell, who accrued a -0.4 WAR. Michael Floyd catches a lot of flak but he barely played and was only worth -0.04 WAR. In translation, according to my model, Treadwell's play was 10 times more detrimental to the team than Floyd's play.

The offensive line did not get much love from PFF and it shows here. With good guard play rare in the NFL in this era, Joe Berger (1.68 WAR) was a great value for his salary. The Vikings need to find an impact guard who can sustain that level of play. Easton totaled a -.14 WAR, but I wonder if he could step his play up to another level in a second full season starting in 2018. Same goes for Elflein. Reiff would have been in the green if his season ended Week 9-10, but in the second half his play dropped off and became a liability (-0.25 WAR).

Perhaps the Vikings could find a better DT next to Joseph as Tom Johnson was fairly average (0.1 WAR) and Shamar Stephen wasn't that good (-0.05 WAR).

Our LBs scored highly here because of poor LB play in the NFL. Kendricks (1.29 WAR) and Barr (1.02 WAR) had their share of great games and bad ones, but it's for the best that they stick together for the 2018 season. I would try to extend Kendricks but I'd probably pass on Barr, who's likely going to be more expensive.

Perhaps it's time to move on from Brian Robison? He played a large share of snaps and was the 2nd worst player due to WAR (-0.5). I think he gets knocked for playing poorly at DT when he shifts there on passing downs.

Alrighty then, I hope you enjoyed this statistical romp that produced some interesting but ultimately not very accurate numbers. As always, all comments are welcome. I'd like to know what you thought about my experiment.

-By the way, if you would like to see what other players' WARs for 2017 were, I'd be happy to calculate it (Kirk Cousins and other QBs perhaps?).


Sources: Pro Football Focus, FangraphsReady for something completely out of left field? Speaking of left field, it actually has something to do with baseball. A while back I had the idea of trying to implement the advanced statistic

There has been a lot of speculation about what the Vikings should/will do at QB going forward.With both Sam Bradford and Case Keenum due to hit free agency at the end of the current season,Kyle Sloter will be the only QB under contract.Teddy Bridgewater's status is a little clouded,as I will explain later.

The Options

Sam Bradford 
There's no doubt that of the QBs currently on the roster,Bradford gives the Vikings the best chance to win.He has the OC who knows him best,a scheme designed to utilize his strengths,and an offensive line that while not brilliant is certainly much improved on last season and does enough to give the Quarterback time to go through his progressions,something he didn't have last season.

On the flip side is the issue of Bradford's troublesome knee.After two ACL injuries earlier in his career the last thing any Vikings fan wanted to see was the QB appearing on the injury report with a knee problem,but that is what happened leading in to the road game at Pittsburgh.Bradford has remained on the injury report in the ensuing weeks with what is a bone bruise,according to media reports.

The biggest problem with assessing Bradford for next season and beyond is that only the medical staff truly know the facts about his current injury,so I can only guesstimate on his health.That said,a bone bruise should not be a concern going forward,and as Bradford has visited with specialist Dr Andrews and been given the all clear on any structural damage then it is fair to assume his health should not be a major concern.

Case Keenum 
Keenum is in the best situation he has ever had in his career to date.His previous stints with the Rams and Texans were on below average offences with poor OL play and a lack of offensive talent.
In Minnesota he finds himself with an average OL but better receiving options and play makers.

He was an undrafted free agent who could best be described as a battler who believes in his ability but lacks consistency.While not likely to ever be an NFL starter,he certainly is an acceptable backup option. 

Kyle Sloter
Sloter is as raw as college free agents come.He only started 10 games at Northern Colorado,so to say he is inexperienced is an understatement.He signed on with the Broncos and was impressive in pre season games,but to project him as a possible future starter based on that is a big stretch.

On a more positive note,the Vikings had to battle hard to land the young QBs signature as he was well regarded by other teams.Sloter is certainly an intriguing development piece,but at this stage that is all he is.

Teddy Bridgewater
Bridgewater is the real wildcard of the QB pack,and is the most difficult to predict because of his health and his contract status.
As far as his health is concerned there has been much speculation in the media about where Bridgewater is in regard to his rehab,however most reports suggest that he is well ahead of schedule and ready to return to practice.On the other hand,the Vikings have been very cautious when answering questions about the health and rehab progression that Bridgewater has made.
For now I will just assume that he is progressing well and see how things play out.

As far as contract status goes there has been speculation about what is required to cause the contract to toll.This is what the CBA says:

It seems straight forward that as it is the last year of Bridgewater's contract,and he is currently on the PUP list (where he must stay until week 6) that the contract would toll.
But this is where things get interesting.
In an article for PFT,Mike Florio posted this:

Earlier this year,the NFLPA stated that they would fight any move by the Vikings to have Bridgewater's contract toll.I wasn't sure how they could justify such a move,but after researching for this article I think the strategy will be twofold.

Firstly,the NFLPA will assert that Bridgewater was in fact able to perform his football services before the sixth regular season game,however he could not join the team because the PUP list designation prohibits that.
Secondly,the NFLPA will use the Management Council interpretation to strengthen their case.
This of course assumes that the NFLPA and Bridgewater can prove that he was medically able to perform.Either way,any move by the NFLPA to challenge the tolling of the contract will certainly lead to what I would expect will be a drawn out process that likely winds up in the courts.

Other Options 
Of the other free agents to hit the market next year there are no real options apart from Kirk Cousins,however that would be an all out bidding war the Vikings would not likely win.I would be amazed if Cousins even made it to free agency,however Washington has completely mismanaged the entire situation around Cousins so anything is possible.

Drew Brees has been mentioned as a possible candidate but I would speculate that if he plays next year it will be in New Orleans.The Saints have managed Brees situation even worse than Washington has with Cousins,and if Brees walks away then the Saints are left with $16 million in dead money,so it is in their interests to figure something out.

Alex Smith and Andrew Luck are others who could possibly be traded for,but after not having a first round pick in 2017 I would not expect the Vikings to be in the QB trade market.

One thing the Vikings should seriously consider is drafting a QB in the mid rounds,although at this stage it is hard to assess who might be available.

Conclusion
There is no doubt in my mind that Mike Zimmer is craving for some continuity and consistency from his offensive unit,and for these reasons I expect that if Sam Bradford is healthy then the Vikings will look to re sign him to lead the unit.

Case Keenum is an adequate backup and Kyle Sloter will get a chance to compete at that spot also.

As previously stated,Teddy Bridgewater is the difficult one to assess at this point with both his health and contract status unknown,and until some clarity exists regarding those situations it is hard to offer an opinion about where he ends up.





There has been a lot of speculation about what the Vikings should/will do at QB going forward.With both Sam Bradford and Case Keenum due to hit free agency at the end of the current season,Kyle

Playing GM: Vikings 2018 Full Offseason by Jetfire

As we are about to embark on free agency and the combine is coming to a close, let's take a stab at Rick Spielman's job as the GM for the Minnesota Vikings. First let's take a look at the squad. A team that had the #1 defense in so many categories, and a decent offense that led the team to an NFC Championship bid, 13-3 record, and the NFC North title. However, there are some big needs to get this team over the hump, and it starts with the fact the only QB on the current roster being Kyle Sloter.

Going into the offseason the biggest needs for the Vikings are: QB, G/T, DT, CB, DE, OLB, WR, S in that order. So how could we go about solving this situation? Well first comes free agency, so let's take a look at the current Vikings contracts:



Now the first thing to do would be to cut Brian Robison and Sharrif Floyd. Floyd is obvious. He's not going to play football again, and it's awful. He would have solved every need at the DT position, but there is nothing we can do so we let's add 6M to our cap space. Now, while I love Robison, he did nothing for the Vikings in 2017. Watching the game film, he was simply horrendous at his job rushing the passer. And for 3.5M, he is simply a must-cut for the Vikings, in my opinion. This leaves us roughly at 54M in cap space.

Signing One: Kirk Cousins - QB - (150M/5YR, 95M Guaranteed)

The Vikings are in a prime position to make a run for the Super Bowl. To me, therefore, you go after the very best QB available; that is Kirk Cousins by a long shot. He has had three straight healthy seasons of 4,000YD+ 25TD+ ball. The weapons he would be inheriting in Minnesota would be the best he has ever had. He will have three great QB-oriented coaches in Downing, DeFilippo, and Stefanski. I do not think anything NY can offer will be so much greater that he would turn down the security of a five-year deal with the best roster he could join.

The following structure:



Signing Two: Josh Sitton - OG - (20M/2YR 11M Guaranteed)

Josh Sitton was rated as the 5th-best guard in football last year. Due to his age, injuries, and the Bears not really in a spot to compete, he was let go. This is a prime spot for the Vikings to jump in and grab an incredibly solid guard to add to the offensive line. Reiff and Elflein played great last year; adding a third piece to this puzzle in FA would be a great move.

The following structure:



Signing Three: Nickell Robey-Coleman - CB - (2.6M, 1M Guaranteed)

Nickell played okay in LA last year. He would for certain meet our need at the nickel cornerback spot. While I am high on Alexander improving this year, you will always need CB depth and Nickell would add it at not only a cheap price but at a spot where he might take over a starting role depending on how he plays.

The following structure:



Signing Four: Sebastian Janikowski - K - (5.5M/2YR, 1M Guaranteed)

Coming off of injury issues, I feel like this is a generous contract for Janikowski. As Viking fans, we know how important the kicker position is. I know I never felt comfortable with Kai back there. While Janikowski may have lost a bit of leg the past two years with his 55-60+ yard kicks, he still has been constantly deadly from inside 45-yards and with extra points. I think as long as he returns healthy from his injury he would be a perfect and needed addition to this Vikings squad.

The following structure:



Signing Five: Kerwynn Williams - RB - (800k/1YR, 0 Guaranteed)

Williams played okay in his time in Arizona. I think he fits the mold as a replacement for Jet. While not the same player, we will need depth at the RB position. I like Williams as a cheap, yet proven option. He can play and do what we will need him to do as a 3rd RB in the depth chart. I think this draft gives us a lot of leeway, and I will talk about that later.

The following structure:



Re-signing: Nick Easton - G - (2.6M/2YR, 400K Guaranteed)

Nick is a restricted free agent, so offering him the qualifying offer here makes the most sense. I do see Easton taking it as he has had injury problems, and there is so much competition in the open market and draft; however, if he does not, we do get a 3rd-round compensation pick in the following draft. Easton will make for incredible depth having a starting quality lineman as a backup for G/C.

The following structure:



Re-signing: Tom Johnson - DT - (2M/1YR - 1M Guaranteed)

Tom Johnson played great last year. The Vikings want to bring him back, limiting his snaps, so 2M sounds like a great deal to have very solid DT depth as we look to find a starter next to Linval in the draft. Depth is something we lacked, and we saw it hurting us in the 4th quarter of a few games this past year.

The following structure:



Extension: Anthony Barr- OLB - (41M/4Yrs, 23M Guaranteed)

I have had a lot of discussion about this contract with many people. While I still think it's an overpay, I do think it's realistic to what Barr will be getting - comparable to Kwon Alexander and Telvin Smith, both elite OLBs similar to Barr. Getting this contract extended this year will actually add room to our cap space since we are on the hook for 12M in the final year of Barr’s rookie 1st-round contract. He is a staple of Zimmer’s defense and is not going anywhere.

The following structure:



Extension: Stefon Diggs - WR - (58M/5Yrs, 24M Guaranteed)

This contract is interesting. I see Diggs getting maybe a slightly bigger deal and over a shorter duration as he may want to prove and solidify himself as a top WR in the NFL and that he can stay healthy. However, I can also see this long-term deal getting done, due to the fact Diggs has injury problems. This is a market deal for Diggs, and while I think he should be paid over that, those injuries may hinder it from happening. This is hoping he takes long-term stability, over a prove-it contract. Either way, I think the Vikings for sure can get it done.

The following structure:



Extension note:

I am accounting for extending Hunter, Waynes, and Kendricks with the following contracts in 2019 and also a Harrison Smith restructure to give him some extra earned signing bonus cash and to push his cap later into his contract.:







The NFL Draft

Round 1 Pick 30: Harrison Phillips - DT - Stanford

Harrison Phillips played nose tackle for Stanford, and he played well. He was extremely productive with 103 tackles, 17 for loss, 7.5 sacks, as well as two forced fumbles. The kid produced. He pulled 42 Reps at the combine and did not perform horrid in the speed drills either. Many scouts' main worry is that he can not handle double teams as a nose in the NFL. Well I think the Vikings could draft him as a 3T; he would only ever face one-on-ones as you are forced to double-team Linval whether that be in run or pass. He does need to work on his pass rushing moves, but that is something I trust our coaching staff with. I think Phillips could dominate next to Linval in our D-line, and we would be getting much more productivity from this pick due to the fact we are not relying on him as our nose and double-team guy.

Round 2 Pick 60 - Billy Price - OG - Ohio St.

Price suffered a pectoral injury the first day of the combine. He was projected to be a late 1st-round to early 2nd-round talent. While I am not happy he got injured, I think this does give the Vikings a huge chance to grab him with their second pick. We would be getting tons of value at a position of need. Price is a day one starter at the RG position. He took over at C once Elflein left; however, at guard he holds his own well as a pass blocker, has a great punch as a run blocker, but most of all gets to the second level. He and Elflein working together in the run game will open the door for Cook to have an incredible season, in my opinion. He should be healthy for this year and would solidify this line as a great one as he competes for the job with Easton. Not to mention Price is one of the smartest football guys in this draft -just watch any video of him breaking down film.

Round 3 Trade with Bucs, Giants, or Colts

Receive early 3rd-round pick trading Latavius Murray, 2018 6th-round draft pick (218), and 2019 5th-rounder

The reasoning for this trade is simple: Murray is getting paid too much. We eat 1M in dead cap but get 5M off the roll this year and 6M next year. If we can gain a 3rd-rounder out of it, we should. Especially with a RB I like later in the draft. I also think one of these teams will still be needing a back going into this draft or some time in free agency where Slick Rick could get a deal like this done. This is kind of a stretch, and a 4th-rounder may be more realistic but let's go with it!

Early 3rd-Round Pick - Chad Thomas - DE - Miami (FL)

To me, Chad Thomas is very similar to Hunter. He is more of a raw talent coming out of college, but he has everything he needs to succeed with some coaching. He didn't have a wonderful combine, and I think this will help the Vikings by having him slip into the third. Depending on what they are hearing, you might switch the order in which we take these two third-rounders. Thomas is great versus the run, he holds the edge well, and he is fast enough to keep up with RBs trying to bounce around the tackle. His tape in the Orange Bowl demonstrates his strengths well - those being run defense, ability to rush the passer from anywhere on the D-line, pure speed and strength. He needs to learn more moves and use his hands more. I see Thomas as an instant Robison replacement giving us some depth and rotation ability with pass rushing. In the long term I see Thomas as our LE once Hunter moves to RE and Everson moves on/retires. I would be ecstatic to see what Zimmer could do with this kid.

3rd Round Pick 90 - Shaquem Griffin - OLB - UCF

Have yourself a combine. Griffin was on my list for a late-round steal; however, after his 4.38 40YD dash sitting at 6’1 227 Lb., his draft stock is soaring. Scouts are concerned about his ability to finish tackles and, simply the fact, he only has one hand. However, he showed an ability to catch the ball, and his freakish athleticism will make up for much of these shortcomings, in my opinion. I can see Griffin as an A. Barr replacement; however, in the meantime, it gives Zimmer LB depth. We no longer will have a massive drop-off if Kendricks or Barr goes down. In time, working with our great defensive coaching staff I see Griffin developing into a top tier 4-3 OLB.

Round 5 Pick 150 - Jamar Summers - DB - UConn

Summers is a S/CB combo. I think he is exactly the kind of player Zimmer could really mold. He can play the nickel corner position and fill in at FS when needed. He has good zone coverage and incredible tackling ability. Speed is the main concern; however, that seems to go away when you have great technique under a Zimmer-led staff. Seems like a solid pick to add some depth to the DB position for the Vikings.

Round 6 Pick 180 - Lavon Coleman - RB - Washington

I am so high on Coleman. I am willing to give up Murray; it's as simple as that. In 2016, he averaged 8 YAC at Washington. After a disappointing 2017, his draft stock plummeted. Many scouts say he's a one-cut back in a power back's body; however, I think he simply a Swiss-Army knife at back. In 2016, he showed he could block, he could run in and outside the tackles, and he could catch. He's extremely elusive and with some hard work, he can bring a power-back style to his game. I attribute a lot of the '17 disappointment to Washington's use of him mainly as a power back - changing and limiting his game. Utilized correctly, I can see Coleman being Dalvin Cook’s “Chester Taylor”. He can do everything and do it well. If Cook went down, I would feel more than comfortable with Lavon Coleman back there.

Round 6 Pick 213 - Antonio Callaway - WR - Florida

Callaway is a great WR - 5’11 and 4.41 40YD time, he gets in and out of breaks as well as literally anyone in this draft. However, his issues are off the field; he continues to have problems. Minnesota would be a great place for him to get away and become part of a great culture. The reason I think the Vikings also somewhat need a player like Callaway is because he also can return kicks and punts, and he does it well. You are getting middle-round talent late due to his attitude problems. Jarius Wright has two more years on his contract, and in that time, I see Callaway becoming every bit as good as Wright; I see Wright as Callaway's floor. This is on top of contributing massively on special teams. It all comes down to focusing on football and not being a distraction to his team.

Other Options

Other options in the draft I would look out for would include:

1st-round talent:

Connor Williams - T - Texas: Connor Williams is a great OT out of Texas. If he is available, it will be hard to pass up. He is an improvement over Remmers and would really secure some great pass blocking.

Maurice Hurst Jr. - DT - Michigan: a great 3Tech DT guy; hes athletic and speedy, fitting Zimmer's system perfectly. However, he was recently diagnosed with a heart condition, and after losing Floyd, I don't think Minnesota wants to take a risk at DT. I see Phillips out of Stanford as a more sure option. I also think there is more raw talent there to harvest.

Isaiah Wynn - G/T - Georgia: Wynn is a do-it-all kind of guy who played G and T, both very successfully at Georgia. He seems like the perfect Remmers replacement. As a smaller RT, he could be a solid pass blocker and a great run blocker. We could also easily decide to slide him in at guard.

2nd/3rd-round talent:

Equanimeous St. Brown - WR - Notre Dame: 6’5, 4.48 40YD, shows a good ability to high point contested catches. I have given up on Treadwell, and due to St. Brown’s speed and showcase of being able to get away and create separation, he could be an easy replacement. St. Brown would not only give us a great vertical threat, he would also give DeFilippo an Alshon Jeffery-like WR to play with. When running 3- and 4-WR sets, St. Brown at his size and speed alone is a threat on the field. With some work on his route running, he could develop into another insane weapon on this offense. He even showed great YAC ability at Notre Dame catching quite a few screens in ‘16.

Jordan Whitehead - S - Pitt: Whitehead was a favorite of mine; however, our safety position seems to be pretty solidified at this point in time. Depth would not hurt, and Sendejo needs a contract soon. I would not be surprised if we take Whitehead knowing Spielman visited Pitt earlier just to watch him.

Mid/late round talent:

Lowell Lotuleleli - DT - Utah: After a disappointing 2017, Lowell has dropped in draft stock. He is a good player and really showcased that in 2016 constantly getting pressure to the QB and handling the run. Again a guy who struggled against the double team, but that would not be a problem on this Vikings squad. He is worth a late round pick if Zimmer thinks he can motivate and mold him into a proper 3Tech DT.

Byron Pringle - WR - Kansas St: 6'1 fast as hell and can return kicks. He seems like the kind of WR the Vikings need as an outside vertical threat who can contribute on special teams. Byron is older at 24, and there has been injury problems, hence the later round projection despite the talent. He is guy that I could see fitting the system in Minnesota and having a contribution to this team in the long run.

Final Moves

Find a veteran cheap 3rd-string QB

See if anyone will take Treadwell for any compensation whatsoever. Hopefully, a team like the Bears will have bad luck in the draft and may be willing to trade.

2019 Roster



Conversation Football: conversationfootball.com/vikingsblog/2018/3/4/playing-gm-vikings-2018Playing GM: Vikings 2018 Full Offseason by @jetfire As we are about to embark on free agency and the combine is coming to a close, let's take a stab at Rick Spielman's job as the

If the Minnesota Vikings success this season feels familiar, it just might be because we've been here before. Looking back over the past several playoff seasons, 2017 seems eerily a lot like another where the Purple dominated—2009.

Both seasons Minnesota ended up winning the most games since 1998 when the team finished 15-1. Both the 2009 and 2017 teams were dominated on one side of the ball. For 2009 the offense finished second in scoring and fifth in yards, while this season the defense dominated leading the NFL in both categories. 

A few other similarities follow. 


Quarterback


Both the 2009 and 2017 versions of the Vikings found themselves with a quarterback leading them to their best record since 1998. In '09 Brett Favre joined Minnesota and produced a 12-4 record resulting in the second seed in the NFC playoffs. The 12 wins matched the second-most in a season with teams from 1969, 1970, 1073 and 1975.

This season Case Keenum, an offseason signing to provide depth at quarterback, stepped up in Week 2 and helped the Vikings to a 13-3 record—not only bettering Favre's result in 2009 but producing the second-most wins in franchise history.



The difference between Favre and Keenum could not be any more different. One joined the team after 18 seasons in the NFL with 169-100 record as a starter. The other, a relative unknown, brought only a 9-15 record through five nondescript seasons.
Farve came with two league MVP's and a Super Bowl win, Keenum came looking for a chance to play.



Despite all the differences they both delivered the best regular season, statistically, of their careers.



Favre's career passer rating before joining the Vikings was 85.4. His best season came in 1995 with the Packers when he finished with a 99.5 rating. In 2009, Favre had his best season with a 107.2 rating. He threw 33 touchdowns and seven interceptions—the fewest interceptions he threw in any season where he started all 16 games. 



Keenum joined the Vikings with a 78.4 passer rating and a 9-15 record, never having played in more than 10 games in a season. The 11 wins credited to Keenum this season are two more than the nine he had in his four previous seasons with the Texans (2) and the Rams (7). In 2017 he finished with a 98.3 passer rating with 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions. In his previous five seasons combined, he threw only 24 touchdowns.  His previous best passer rating was 87.7 in 2015 going 3-2 as the starter for the St. Louis Rams.



While both quarterbacks had exceptional debuts in their first season with the Purple, Keenum's is much more surprising considering where he came from. Here's hoping Keenum can exceed the comparison and take the Vikings at least one game further than Farve did in 2009.



A Breakout Season for a Wide Receiver

Both 2009 and 2017 saw the emergence of a wide receiver leading the Vikings with more than 1,200 receiving yards. In '09 Sidney Rice, in his third season with Minnesota, finished with 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns. This past season Adam Thielen, in his fifth with the Vikings, finished with 1,276 receiving yards and four touchdowns. The comparison between the two quickly fades after that. Rice joined the Vikings in 2007 as a second-round draft pick and immediately made the active roster. As a rookie, he caught 31 passes and had four touchdowns.

For Thielen, the road was a little longer as an undrafted free agent signed in 2013 he spent two seasons on the practice squad earning a spot on the active roster in 2015 as a special teams player. His first touchdown came on a punt he blocked and then returned for the score in 2014. He broke into the starting lineup in 2016 when he started 10 games at wide receiver and leading the team with 967 receiving yards and finished second with 5 receiving touchdowns. 

There is also the connection that between Rice in '09 and Thielen in '17, no other Vikings' receiver has reached the 1,000-yard plateau.



The Competition


The seasons of 2009 and 2017 were also very similar in the results of the games they played.

As in 2009, the Vikings faced the AFC North. Just like in 2009 the Vikings finished 3-1 against them. The only loss came against the Steelers in Pittsburgh. The similarities end there. In 2009 the AFC North sent two teams to the playoffs—the Bengals won the division and the Ravens made the playoffs as a wildcard team.


In both seasons the Vikings rattled off a long winning streak. In 2009 it was six games, in 2017 eight. They also were able to pull off the feat all Vikings fan love—a sweep of the Green Bay Packers. Unfortunately, between 2009 and 2017 the Vikings were only 3-11-1 against Green Bay including losing a playoff game at Lambeau. In the three seasons prior to 2009 Minnesota was only 1-5 against the Packers. 

Along with losing to the Steelers, both teams also lost to the Panthers in Charlotte. A huge difference however to this similarity is that neither the Steelers or the Panthers made the playoffs in 2009. 



Head Coaches


For both the '09 and '17 teams, coached by Brad Childress and Mike Zimmer, there are multiple similarities as well. Minnesota was their first opportunity in the NFL as a head coach. For both the defining season was the fourth with the Vikings. Childress became the head coach of the Vikings in 2006 following four seasons as the Eagles offensive coordinator, while Zimmer took over in 2014 after six seasons as the Bengals defensive coordinator.
Zimmer, like Childress, both seem to have a disdain for the media and have a way of answering questions without really providing any insight what they really think or feel. 


2009 was the second journey into the postseason for Childress who built a 36-28 record with consecutive NFC North division championships. Zimmer heads into the 2017 postseason, also his second, with a 39-25 record at head coach winning his second division title in three years.



Again, like the quarterback comparison here's hoping that Zimmer can win at least one more game this year than Childress won in 2009. That loss in the NFC Championship game to the Saints in New Orleans arguably started Childress' downfall in Minnesota. In 2010 Childress was replaced with defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier after 10 games.


Yes, there are a lot of similarities between these two seasons, two seasons that have produced the most excitement this side of 1998. Let's hope the comparisons of the regular season are where the similarities end and that Zimmer can do what no other head coach, not even the great Bud Grant whose 158 wins are the most in franchise history, can do and bring a Super Bowl championship to Minnesota.  If the Minnesota Vikings success this season feels familiar, it just might be because we've been here before. Looking back over the past several playoff seasons, 2017 seems eerily a lot like another

The Minnesota Vikings moved into the top playoff spot in the NFC this weekend. Their eighth straight win, and the Philadelphia Eagles loss to Seattle, makes the Purple the number one seed in the NFC—provided the playoffs were to begin next week. 

Yet, a lot of long-suffering Vikings fans are still waiting for the proverbial "other shoe to fall." This franchise, despite some very successful teams, is known to always lose when it seems to matter most—not quite as bad as some franchises, say like Detroit or Cleveland, but still a loser. 

The week leading up to the Atlanta game I broke the Vikings history into a series of different eras. 



The height of Vikings success, no surprise, is called the Super Bowl Era. In the 10 seasons between 1968 to 1977, the Vikings made the playoffs an incredible nine times, playing (and losing) in five NFC Championship games and four Super Bowls. This era is remembered by losing as heavy favorites to Hank Stam and the Chiefs, losing to the Perfect Season, losing to the Steel Curtain, losing to the Cowboys and the Hail Mary and losing to John Madden and the Raiders. Their perfect 0-4 record in the Super Bowl matches the most by a team without a victory. 

Following the Super Bowl Era, one finds the Lost Era, a decade of futility where the Vikings would not achieve 10 wins in any season. Then another era of winning dubbed The Rise of Hope—Green, named for former head coach Denny Green who led the team in nine of the 13 season that makes up this era. During his tenure, Green would average 10 wins per season. The current era is similarly named The Rise of Hope—Zimmer. Hopefully, this will be the start of another long winning tradition. Between these two eras is dubbed the WTF Era. This era was led by Mike Tice, Brad Childress, and Leslie Frazier. Outside of the 2009 season, when quarterback Brett Favre provided a glimmer of hope for a championship, this era was a turbulent time when it didn't seem like the Vikings ship had a rudder to steer the organization to any destination except chaos. This era is full of its own terms of futility that includes "Take a knee," "41-0" and "12 Men in the Huddle."   

With the Week 13 win in Atlanta, the Vikings matched a franchise-record five consecutive road wins. This is the fourth time they have achieved this. In 1969 and 1974 they made it all the way to the Super Bowl. A win in Carolina this Sunday would set this team above any other in franchise history. If they can win the last road game in Green Bay two weeks later they would tie the most road wins in a season of seven, sharing the record with the 1998 team that finished 15-1. 

This 2017 team is a special team.  It's a balanced team. The defense is currently ranked second in the NFL in both points and yards allowed. The offense, despite losing their starting quarterback early in the season and their leading rusher in Week 4, has found a way to string together eight straight wins. It's led by quarterback Case Keenum, who has transformed himself from an undrafted journeyman into one of the top-ranked quarterbacks in the league. His passer rating of 98.6 places his eighth among starting quarterbacks with at least 193 attempts. He's credited with an 8-2 record as the starter, but should also be given credit for salvaging the game in Chicago when he came off the bench to lead the Vikings in a come-from-behind 20-17 win. 

It seems each week someone, somewhere is saying that the Vikings are facing their toughest challenge of the season. It started with the road win in Washington after their bye week. This was followed by a convincing win over the Rams in Week 11 and road wins in Detroit and Atlanta. Four games into the toughest five-game stretch of the season the Vikings are 4-0 with yet, no doubt, the toughest challenge yet when they face Cam Newton and the Panthers in Charlotte. Slowly the Vikings are being recognized as one of the best teams in the NFL. Most NFL power rankings have them at third or fourth with the likes of New England, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh. If they can win the remainder of their schedule the Vikings would be guaranteed the top seed in the NFC and home-field advantage all the way through the playoffs, including the Super Bowl. 

Yes, it just might be time to believe in this team. To not be afraid of speaking about the potential of a championship. Everything is aligning for Minnesota to be the first team to play in the Super Bowl they are hosting.

That other shoe isn't going to fall, not this year. Vikings fans need to know it is all right to believe and have faith—afterall even the Chicago Cubs were able to win the World Series, why not the Vikings winning the Super Bowl?  



 The Minnesota Vikings moved into the top playoff spot in the NFC this weekend. Their eighth straight win, and the Philadelphia Eagles loss to Seattle, makes the Purple the number one seed in the

Harrison Smith PFF Grade 88.6

Harry Hitman has been a lynchpin for the Viking’s defense since day one. Unlike other players, who fit niche roles, his versatility allows him to make an impact on the majority of snaps, whether it be a run or a pass. Throughout his career, he’s shown elite level skills in coverage, vs the run, and when blitzing, making him a nightmare for other teams while being a hero for ours. Monday’s game was a classic Smith game; he was able to showcase the total package and ended up making the game-winning play in a key divisional game.

Early in the first quarter, the Bears tried to get the offense going by running a WR screen to arguably their most dynamic player, Tarik Cohen. Normally this leads to an easy completion and handful of free yards but Smith had other plans in mind. On the play, he instantly recognizes the screen and flies upfield to make a tackle for a 3-yard loss.


Later in the quarter, it’s 3rd down and Mike Zimmer dials up a blitz to attack the rookie QB. The Bears’ protection breaks down leading to an unblocked Smith forcing Mitch Trubisky out of the pocket leading to an incompletion and a QB hit.


In the second quarter Smith shows off his chops vs the run. Once the RB cuts back Smith sets the edge forcing the RB to bounce inside, then he sheds the blocker to make the run stop.


The last play comes in the fourth quarter when the Vikings needed a play the most. The Bears were backed up and the pressure causes Trubisky to leave the pocket. Smith stays locked onto the TE the entire time and when the TE heads downfield Smith follows and makes a play on the throw to come up with the game-winning pick.


Monday’s game really highlighted what many already knew, not only is Harrison Smith the NFL’s most versatile safety, he’s also one of the best ones too.

Jerick McKinnon PFF Grade 84.8

Jerick McKinnon had an awful season last year and was stuck behind our star RB Dalvin Cook to start the season. When Cook went down it was assumed that Latavius Murray would step into his role with McKinnon seeing slightly more time as well. While the Vikings showed this was the plan early vs the Bears, McKinnon quickly showed he’s more impactful than his overpaid teammate.

McKinnon didn’t get much run until the second quarter but when he did he sure made the most of it. Midway through he shows off the skill all good RBs need; the ability to make defenders miss. Here he makes a quick juke to turn a TFL into a 3 yard gain.


Near the end of the third quarter, McKinnon gives the Vikings a boost taking a toss play 58 yards to the house. He shows the vision to hit the alley, cutsback on the DB in space, and then shows the pure speed to make defenders’ angles wrong.


McKinnon saved some of his best work for the fourth quarter. He seemed to find a rhythm and picked several solid gains and showing off more of his ability to be a starting RB.

Even though this play is called back McKinnon uses his great speed to get to the edge. His burst to get vertical and stunning lateral cuts to maximize yardage, before falling forward for extra yards, really separates him from Latavius Murray.



The last play is also in the fourth quarter on a 9 yard gain. Again Mckinnon shows off his burst to attack the hole, slipping through arm tackles on his way to a solid gain.


The Vikings took several steps to improve their OL this offseason and it has shown. Our run blocking has gone from absolutely awful to a passable level. This has allowed Dalvin Cook and now Jerick McKinnon to show off some of their traits and playmaking abilities. While McKinnon is no Dalvin Cook he is a good RB in his own right and should continue to see the majority of the workload throughout the rest of the season.

Other Notes

Tom Johnson: He has improved vs the run. First 2 plays of the game he was making run stops. He's still not great but still better than the beginning of the season.
Ben Gedeon: Needs to look to make plays on the ball carrier in the run game instead of looking for contact from a blocker. Several times he looked too excited to take on FB and lost the leverage to make a tackle
Emmanuel Lamur: He came in on as the third LB in a 3-3 on an obvious passing down. Something to look out for in the future.
Sam Bradford: His knee might've been cleared to go but his mind wasn't ready. Besides missing several passes high Bradford made some awful decisions and looked like a high schooler who was afraid of getting hit. He clearly isn't the type of player who can play through pain and he needs to sit until he's 110% healthy. Whether that happens this year who knows. I think we saw the last game for Sam Bradford as a Viking.
Anthony Barr: I know I mentioned it last week but he is definitely back.

Harrison Smith PFF Grade 88.6 Harry Hitman has been a lynchpin for the Viking’s defense since day one. Unlike other players, who fit niche roles, his versatility allows him to make an

This week’s notes are going to be a little bit different. Previously I was looking at PFF’s highest grade O and D player but this game the D was so damn dominate the top 4 graded players were all defenders. So this week you get to enjoy the beautiful defensive performance put on by Everson Griffen, Danielle Hunter, Linval Joseph and Anthony Barr.

Everson Griffen 90.7
Everson Griffen made headlines last week by saying the Lions LT Greg Robinson was lazy, normally this is a faux pas but man Griffen whooped him so badly he can call him whatever he wants.

Griffen has faced more chip blocks than any other defender through a quarter of the season and this game was no different. He faced the likes of chips and double teams plus the Lions quick passing O yet still managed to wreak havoc.

Took get an idea of how freakish this dude is, check out the power he packs on this bullrush

That’s crazy power

In the 4th quarter the Lions decided to single block him for some reason and he literally beat the LT off the rip


Later after jumping offsides to give the Lions an easier 3rd down attempt he’s left one on one vs a TE for some reason and runs by him like he was doing a bag drill, he then chases down and hits Stafford leading to throwing one of 4 dropped picks (Griffen was partly responsible for 2 of them)


With the 2 minutes to go in the game and the Vikings needing the ball back after a failed 4th down attempt, Griffen slants inside vs the run redirects when he sees the pulling blocker and RBs and makes the TFL


Griffen terrorized the Lions all game and was virtually unblockable one on one, Danielle Hunter received a lot of the fanfare last year but Griffen has steadily been our best DE and one of the top DEs in the league.

Danielle Hunter 86.2

Danielle Hunter had a breakout sophomore season, showing the league that he was forreal at only 21 years old. Through three weeks he had zero sacks on the season, but was quietly making his impact on the field. This week he was anything but quiet, in fact, he basically brought a megaphone to the game letting the Lions feel his presence from literally the first play of the game.

The clock his still sitting at 15:00 when this ball is snapped and Hunter bullrushes the RT before hitting the inside move for his first sack of the 2017 season.


Hunter waits until the first quarter is coming to a close before picking up his second sack of the year. This time he jumps outside playing the run before jumping back inside seeing the OT overplaying him, plus the RB coming to help, before spinning back outside then getting low and making a holy sh*t how the h*ll did he do that one arm sack on Matthew Stafford.


The last time I remember seeing a one arm sack this sick was when Jared Allen sacked Eli Manning by pulling him down with one hand while still being blocked by the OT the entire time.

In the second quarter on a third down Hunter shows off his world-class athleticism timing his jump to easily bat the ball down.


Hunter was on fire this game and the 22-year-old is looking to show the world that the Vikings have the best edge rush duo in the entire NFL.

Linval Joseph 85.2

Through 3 weeks of the season, Linval Joseph was registering the highest run stop percentage among all interior defenders per PFF. Versus the Lions our resident run stopping king was on his A game, despite Abdullah putting up solid numbers on some missed assignments and tackles but other Viking defenders.

I’ve said before that Linval cannot be blocked one on one and through a quarter of the season I’m still waiting to be proven wrong.

Look how easily he runs sideways on this stretch play basically ignoring the OL to make a stop for zero yards.


Later with little over 2 minutes left and the Vikings needing the ball back, he gets even more disrespectful to the Lions OL. For some reason, the Lions try blocking him solo so he ragdolls this 300+ lb grown man and makes the tackle for only one yard.


Like I’ve mentioned before Linval has progressed very well as a pass rusher and here he walks his blocker back and sheds for a big sack in the redzone, taking advantage of the near miss sack by Hunter.


Linval is the king of run stopping so far this year while also throwing in a pocket collapsing ability that has elevated his game to level that’s put him in the tier right below the Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh aliens of the world.

Anthony Barr 84.2

Enough has been said about Anthony Barr’s great disappearing act last year, but this season has seen a turnaround that most believed would never happen. He’s back to making plays all over the field for the first quarter of the season. The top pass rushing off ball LB has also reverted back to a much more aggressive player in the run game and an absolute star in the pass coverage.

In the first quarter, Barr shows off the upside in the run game, mirroring the ball carrier before exploding to make the tackled after the RB commits to trying to hit the edge.

Barr makes this look extremely easy but as we saw all game Abdullah is an elite athlete with crazy cuts and breakaway speed. Barr, however, is an elite athlete in his right and uses his closing speed and angle to easily handle a back who gave many Vikings trouble all game.

In the second quarter, Barr makes a near perfect play, first getting his hands on the TE to disrupt the timing of the play before getting his eyes back to Stafford and making a ridiculously athletic play on the ball to breakup (drop) the pass.


Later in the game on the Lions’ only TD drive Barr comes on the blitz easily beating the RB and forcing Stafford to scramble eventually leading to a dropped pick by Trae Waynes in the endzone (an all too common theme).


This play in the 3rd quarter was what really convinced me that 2016 Anthony Barr was gone. On the screen Barr avoids the cutblock before bringing down Abdullah in space for only 3 yards. What really stands out here is his ability to avoid the cutblock, because last year he was consistently taken out of screen plays after being cut down by an olineman. Seeing him easily avoid the cut makes me really believe whatever was going on with him last year is done, hopefully for good.


The defense was on fire this game, flying all over the field and making play after play, only giving up 14 points vs a good Lions offense. Sadly, the effort was wasted by a piss poor Vikings offense which seems to be a theme vs the Lions lately. However, this was a stellar game by the D that gives hope for the season, once a non backup QB is in, even with the loss of Dalvin Cook.

Other Notes:
Stefon Diggs: Still good.
Adam Thielen: Still good.
Kyle Rudolph: Too often ignored by Keenum (was the team’s highest graded player on O with an 81.3 grade).
Dalvin Cook: Gone too soon.
The run game: Toast...Again.
Keenum: His scattershot accuracy shows why he’s only a backup.
Eric Kendricks: Besides the missed tackles and a blown coverage assignment actually did fine but yanno can’t ignore those missed tackles. That must be cleaned up.
Mike Zimmer: The pressure package was bringing heat again.
Kai Forbath: Why isn’t he a FA yet??
Mackensie Alexander: Looking much improved.

This week’s notes are going to be a little bit different. Previously I was looking at PFF’s highest grade O and D player but this game the D was so damn dominate the top 4 graded players were all

Missed last week but we’re back this week and with Gifs too!

PFF HIGHEST DEFENSIVE GRADE
Linval Joseph 83.3
Ever since Linval Joseph joined the Vikings he was an elite run defender, anchoring the middle of our defense. He’s the rare DT who will take on a double team, keeping the LB clean and still make the tackle. One on one he’s virtually unblockable and we’ve witnessed him single handedly shut down opposing teams run games. We’ve also witnessed the growth he’s made as a pass rusher and this year he’s better than ever. Interior pressure is the most dangerous pressure in football and lead to collapsed pockets and QBs bailing right into the welcoming arms of a DE. Joseph has become the pocket collapser the Vikings have needed allowing every other pass rusher to become that much more impactful.

Vs Tampa Bay Joseph was a mountain of mayhem, putting in his usual work vs the run game while repeatedly walking Tampa Bay’s C back into Jameis Winston's lap.

Early in the first quarter he shakes off a cutblock like it never happened and gets lateral making a tackle for no gain, 300+ lb men aren’t supposed to move sideways like this.


Here Linval absolutely whips the OG. A quick throw prevented a sack but it’s good to see him beat his man so quickly and cleanly.


In the 3rd quarter we see the effect pushing the pocket has. Linval executes a bullrush that forces Winston to bail from the pocket and scramble for only 4 yards.


Here’s another example of Linval’s excellence in the run game. The Bucs try to block him one on one and it’s almost not fair the way he destroys this blocker and makes a tackle for 2 yards


PFF HIGHEST OFFENSIVE GRADE
Stefon Diggs 89.7
Stefon Diggs is on fire to start the season and is showing the league he’s a top 10 WR when healthy. This game was more of the same with Diggs’ showing off his accuracy erasing ability, elite level route running and run after the catch skills.

We kick it off to an incompletion in the first quarter. Diggs absolutely works the CB on a post route but Keenum throws an awful pass to the numbers. This would’ve been an easy pick if Diggs didn’t manage to track the ball and barely miss on pulling it in.


The first play of the 2nd quarter Diggs turns the CB inside, picking up 17 yards on the very inaccurate pass. The theme of Diggs wrecking CBs in man coverage would last the entire game.


With less than a minute to go in the first half Diggs highpoints an underthrown ball on a corner route for a TD. If Keenum led Diggs with the pass he would’ve caught an easy TD, instead, he gets a highlight reel TD.



Diggs owned the highlight reel on Sunday with his second TD being even more spectacular than the last. On a 3rd and 3 he burns the CB, shakes off a defensive holding call, then shields the defender from the ball, slips a tackle, and runs an additional 40 yards for a TD. This is peak Stefon Diggs from the route to the catch to the run after the catch to the celebrating from 15 yards out.


Notes:
Anthony Barr
Barr looks like he’s shaken off the awful season last year to rejoin the ranks of living LBs and not walking piles of hot garbage. He might not reach the heights of 2 years ago but it’s good to see him making plays in coverage again.

Case Keenum
This was a peak Keenum game, with him giving his WRs a chance to make plays on the ball downfield. His shaky ball placement shows that it is somewhat of a mirage but I believe Keenum is at the very least a good backup QB. And not that backup who’s a game manager bullcrap people spout. Like he’s a I can play good football, but I’m streaky. AKA a real backup.

Mackensie Alexander
I wholeheartedly believe he is a much better outside CB than Waynes and I hope he replaces him by the end of the season.

Dalvin Cook
Dude looks like a not as good AD. Bad in pass pro, meh hands but man can this dude run. He breaks a tackle on seemingly every run and is such a smooth runner is beautiful to watch.

Pat Shurmur
Our offensive schemes look good… for now.
Missed last week but we’re back this week and with Gifs too! PFF HIGHEST DEFENSIVE GRADE Linval Joseph 83.3 Ever since Linval Joseph joined the Vikings he was an elite run

After every game this season I'll be going back and rewatching with the All22 angle to see what really happened. I'll always highlight the highest graded player on O and D by PFF then talk about a few other players who stood out, good or bad. If there's anything you want me to include as well just lemme know.

PFF Highest Offensive Grade
Sam Bradford 90.1
Sam Bradford has always been shy going downfield even though he’s always had an extraordinarily accurate deep ball. This game, however, Bradford played like a man possessed going downfield with regularity and completing a total of 9 passes to the intermediate and deep parts of the field. What stood out in particular though was not his accuracy downfield (as many of his WRs were running free) but his patience letting routes develop and making the right decisions on where to go with the ball to expose the coverage busts. To start off the game on back to back 3rd downs he picked up easy conversions on crossing routes to Diggs when the Saints tried to man him up. Later near the end of the game several of his deep balls to Thielen came out of a bunch formation with Diggs running off the safeties allowing Thielen to leave his man in the dust on corner routes. Another trait that was showcased this game his presnap decision making. On a 3rd and long in the redzone he saw the Saints leaving both A gaps uncovered and checked to a run play that picked up an easy first down. On Diggs’ TD on the fade route he immediately knew where he was going and after quickly looking off the safety tossed a ball that allowed Diggs’ to make a ridiculous catch for 6. Lastly, near the end of the first half, the Saints came out in a cover zero look so Bradford changed the play and went on to hit Thielen for an easy 35 yard completion. Overall Bradford showed his ability in the mental part of the game that really sets apart the good QBs from the average ones. Although his performance should be taken with a grain of salt vs a poor Saints D it was a great sign of a better Bradford for the season.

PFF Highest Defensive Grade
Harrison Smith 90.4
Harrison Smith was his usual elite self vs the Saints Monday night making plays all over the field, with one series midway through the 2nd quarter sticking out. On a drive that was extended on a BS roughing the passer call the Saints drove down to the redzone and were on the brink of opening up the game. Harrison Smith, however, wanted no parts of this and was the driving force behind a defense that held the vaunted Saints O to only 3 points. On first down he sets the edge vs the jet sweep then gets in to help make the tackle after 5 yards. It’s 2nd down now and the Saints trying running the ball to the right but Smith comes flying into the backfield, splitting to blockers and forcing the RB to cutback into Vikings defenders for a TFL. On 3rd & 5 from the goal, the Saints run a trap play to catch the Vikings off guard but Smith isn’t picked up and makes the 1 on 1 tackle for 3 yards to force a FG. Football is an extremely situational sport and with the D backed against the wall Smith was at the top of his game. Later in the game, he had another play that highlighted his coverage skills. At the snap he rotates down to play the flats but keeps his eyes on Brees the whole way, this allowed him to see through the run fake and pick up the defender running free behind the LBs. As soon as Brees' shoulders lifted up (letting Bradford know the ball was about to be thrown) he broke on the WR and made a spectacular pass breakup to prevent a big play. Smith plays safety and that often means a lot of his impact isn’t seen in stats in the stat sheet. If the front 7 does their job he won’t show up too often in the run game and if he does his job coverage wise the ball is going somewhere else. However, Smith is truly one of the game's elites and the elite NFL safeties find ways to show up by going above and beyond the expected which is what Smith has consistently shown throughout his career and is why he is the lynchpin to this top 5 defense.

Hidden Stars of the Game
Stefon Diggs 89.0
While Diggs technically was the NFL's highest graded WR by PFF, the grade doesn’t do justice to the game he had. Diggs made tough catch after tough catch throughout the game and showed his elite hands and ability to adjust to make a catch. To start, the fade was a beautifully thrown ball by Bradford but the catch was on another level. The mastery needed to go up in the air make the contested grab AND get both feet down inbounds was a thing of beauty to witness. Earlier in the drive, Diggs might’ve made an even better catch, adjusting to the underthrown ball by Bradford and holding through the massive (and illegal) hit by the Saints safety. The last truly awe inspiring play was a deep ball earlier in the 3rd quarter where he shows the undervalued skill to adjust to the deep ball and haul it in with the defender all over him.

Pat Shurmur
I questioned the Vikings choice to retain him after last season and while I do have reservations he undoubtedly took a step in the right direction and played an enormous role in the great game Bradford had. Throughout the entire game, the Vikings were running route combos to take advantage of what the Saints were doing on the defense. He routinely schemed up plays to get ideal matchups whether they were Diggs and Thielen vs anyone, Rudolph in the redzone or just receivers running free in general; the pass concepts were on point this game. (I’ll try to get out another post later this week specifically highlighting what he did in order to break apart the Saints D)

Adam Thielen
As highlighted by the broadcast Thielen has gone from unwanted in college to legitimate good NFL player. He’s now joined Jordy Nelson in the white-WR-who’s-a-deep-threat-but-will-never-get-his-dues-as-one-because-he’s-white club. He’s proven over the course of last season and in this game that he’s a legitimate downfield threat and Pat Shurmur has made sure to take advantage of his skillset especially near the end of last season and I pray this continues to happen for the rest of the season.

Eric Kendricks
Erick Kendricks looks like he’s going to take a stab at leaping into the next tier of elite LBs. He’s always been a high level player in coverage who’s had his struggles vs the run but against the Saints he looked like things have really slowed down for him as he’s getting an even better hold on how teams will try to attack him and where to take gambles in the run game. I think this will be a theme that carries out through the entire year.

Linval Joseph
Still a monster vs the run? Check.
Another improvement in the pass game adding, even more, value to his game? Check.
Dude’s on a God level vs the run as a nose tackle and each year he’s taken steps forward as a pass rusher. This year looks like he’ll continue moving in that direction allowing him to become even more valuable to this D.
After every game this season I'll be going back and rewatching with the All22 angle to see what really happened. I'll always highlight the highest graded player on O and D by PFF then talk about a

Before the season kicks off, I'll be taking a look at the Vikings' best offensive and defensive player each game and highlighting exactly why and how they had such a good game. For simplicity sake, I'll be choosing whoever PFF rated as the best player on each side of the ball that week. Right now that's the easiest way to do it, but I'm open to other suggestions like possibly a vote for the upcoming season.

In a game where the Vikings O actually scored 3 TDs no one Vikings offensive player really stood out. This game's top offensive player was Alex Boone who had a decidedly average game. He did do a solid job in the pass game not allowing a single pressure which contributed to Bradford having one of his least pressured game of the season.

In the run game the only thing he was good at was remaining consistently average at best. His best block by far was this combo in the 3rd quarter. He gives a good shot to knock him over into control of Berger. Then he makes it up to the LB and blocks him off from making a play. It was the smoothest he looked in space all game.


The Giants don’t have any good interior pass rushers so running line games were their best way of getting interior pressure. Boone did an excellent job passing off and receiving stunts the entire game.


On occasion, the Giants would also line up their top tier pass rusher, Olivier Vernon, on the inside. The few times Boone was asked to block him he did the job extremely well, completely stonewalling him most of the time.


I wish I had more highlights to show you but like I said it was a very average game for Boone. The Vikings rushed 33 times for 104 yards and a measly 3.3 yards per carry. Boone was basically flawless in the pass game so you can imagine have his run performance was for him to receive an average grade. Regardless, he wasn’t bad this game and showed that he can solidify the LG position, if only at a basic level. With what we’ve had on the line lately though, I’ll take mediocre every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

Before the season kicks off, I'll be taking a look at the Vikings' best offensive and defensive player each game and highlighting exactly why and how they had such a good game. For simplicity sake,

Before the season kicks off, I'll be taking a look at the Vikings' best offensive and defensive player each game and highlighting exactly why and how they had such a good game. For simplicity sake, I'll be choosing whoever PFF rated as the best player on each side of the ball that week. Right now that's the easiest way to do it, but I'm open to other suggestions like possibly a vote for the upcoming season.

Week 4 of the 2016 season the Vikings held the Giants to only 10 points thanks in large part to their star CB Xavier Rhodes, who is the defensive player of game 4.

Odell Beckham is one of the best WRs in the entire league. He’s been on a historic pace to start his career putting up numbers no one has come close to at the start of a career since the one and only Randy Moss. Xavier Rhodes was all over him this game limiting him to only 3 catches for 23 yards. He also picked up an INT and was inside the head of Beckham the entire game.

The Vikings gameplan going into the game was to have Rhodes follow Beckham everywhere he went and it worked to near perfection.

It takes until midway through the second quarter before Beckham gets his first target on a slant for 9 yards.
A couple of plays later he makes a 4-yard reception on a quick out. A big part of this play though is Beckham really didn’t like the hit by Rhodes at the end. He ended up getting flagged for taunting and it was at this point Rhodes really got in his head.
Two plays later Beckham pushes Rhodes at the top of his break causing him to lose balance. This frees up Beckham to make a reception on a quick hitch for 10 yards. It was his last reception of the night.

That’s right on one drive midway through the second quarter Beckham made 3 receptions for 23 yards and that stayed his total for the entire game. From here on out it was really the Xavier Rhodes show.

Here Rhodes picks up a pass breakup on another hitch. He's in off coverage staying under control in his backpedal until he sees Beckham breakdown, then he makes a great break downhill breaking up the reception at the catch point.

Even though Beckham is out of control Rhodes shows his discipline by staying patient in coverage, not falling for Beckham's signature spin move. The Giants would go back to a double move again but Rhodes stayed under control the entire game.


Here Rhodes makes a pick on deep ball. Beckham was more concerned with making contact with Rhodes downfield then running his route, again another play highlighting how Rhodes was in his head.


This was Beckham's worst game of the season and it came almost solely at the hands of Xavier Rhodes. From the outset Rhodes was physical and got into Beckham's head, winning the mental game. This was highlighted by a Beckham drop and also on the pick where he showed more interest in Rhodes than the ball. Rhodes locked up one of the best WRs in the league in what would be his best season of his career to date.Before the season kicks off, I'll be taking a look at the Vikings' best offensive and defensive player each game and highlighting exactly why and how they had such a good game. For simplicity sake,

Before the season kicks off, I'll be taking a look at the Vikings' best offensive and defensive player each game and highlighting exactly why and how they had such a good game. For simplicity sake, I'll be choosing whoever PFF rated as the best player on each side of the ball that week. Right now that's the easiest way to do it, but I'm open to other suggestions like possibly a vote for the upcoming season.

Another Vikings game and another awful offensive performance as a whole. We ended up winning 22-10 off of a safety, a punt return TD, one passing TD, and 2 FGs. That lone offensive TD went to our offensive player of the game: Kyle Rudolph. Rudolph had 7 catches for 70 yards and a TD - 5 of those for the first down, with 2 of those coming on the ever-important money down. 

Blocking wise it was an up and down game for Rudolph with a couple of good blocks in the run game on LBs, DBs, and DEs. He also held his own vs a DE a couple of times when he was kept in for pass protection. There were still the occasional missed block or tackle given up but I’d say he acquitted himself well for the majority of the game.

In the passing game, Rudolph's first conversion comes against one of the league's top coverage LBs in Thomas Davis. He shows off his strength by absorbing a blow from Davis, that doesn’t even knock him an inch off course, before making a 4-yard grab on 3rd-and-3.



Moving ahead all the way to the 3rd quarter, Rudolph makes his second 3rd down conversion. He runs another 5-yard sit down route on 3rd-and-4 and hangs on after the hit to keep the sticks moving. This is probably Rudolph’s best asset as a TE; he’s so big and strong. He presents a big target over the MOF allowing for QBs to make easy throws knowing Rudolph will shield off the defender and make the catch. 



Here we see the Vikings only offensive TD of the day. Rudolph runs a wheel route vs man coverage. Rudolph does a great job of tracking the ball over his inside shoulder and then makes a great adjustment to haul in the 15-yard TD.



On this play, Kuechly is manned up vs Rudolph with inside leverage. Rudolph recognizes this and sells an outside move getting Kuechly to commit before cutting back inside and making a solid 8-yard gain. Again notice the placement of his body to shield the defender, preventing them from having any chance of making a play on the ball.



Following the trend of Vikings missing on TDs, Rudolph is manned up vs Kuechly here. First, he releases outside into the path of Thomas Davis forcing Davis to respect the possible angle route by Asiata. Then he runs a smooth corner route creating great separation from Kuechly (before the Diggs OPI). However, Rudolph is unable to haul in Bradford's off target ball in the endzone.



Later in the 4th quarter, Rudolph gets his easiest reception, coming free off of PA across the MOF. If you watch carefully though you’ll see Rudolph slow down when he gets open so that he doesn’t run into Thomas Davis’ zone. Bradford makes the throw and Rudolph again hangs on through contact and picks up 18 yards.



Rudolph picks up another first down here catching a ball in the MOF. To the surprise of Vikings fans everywhere, he actually picked up this first down by gaining additional yardage after the catch.



The last play here is another potential TD not converted. Rudolph gets manned up by a safety who presses him off the line. Rudolph easily defeats the press and gets open on a fly for a potential 24-yard TD. Unfortunately, Bradford went elsewhere, but this showcases Rudolph's ability to beat even safeties down the field in coverage.



Rudolph has had his up and downs for the Vikings, but I finally think he’s settled into his role of a good, not great TE. This game he worked over the best LB in the NFL Luke Kuechly for a potential TD and a couple of first down conversions. Heading into next season, I hope he’ll be able to stay healthy and settle into a Jason Witten-type role attacking the MOF and mainly making possession catches. This game he did show he’s capable of being a bigger play threat, although I doubt he’ll ever be a top TE in the league in that part of the game. He’s shown a couple of times that he’s able to fill in the big body receiver role in the redzone, and with Shurmur having a full season to really install his O, hopefully we go to him more often.

Before the season kicks off, I'll be taking a look at the Vikings' best offensive and defensive player each game and highlighting exactly why and how they had such a good game. For simplicity sake,

Before the season kicks off, I'll be taking a look at the Vikings' best offensive and defensive player each game and highlighting exactly why and how they had such a good game. For simplicity sake, I'll be choosing whoever PFF rated as the best player on each side of the ball that week. Right now that's the easiest way to do it, but I'm open to other suggestions like possibly a vote for the upcoming season.

Week 3 was another excellent performance by our defense - with them recording 3 picks, 8 sacks, and a safety. The Panthers O loves attacking downfield, and this matched up perfectly with the strengths of the defensive player of the game: the much maligned, Trae Waynes.

Trae Waynes was coming off of a rough game vs the Packers from the previous week. Although he did make the game-sealing pick, he also gave up seven catches, a TD, and was flagged 3 times. This week he was looking to bounce back vs a Panthers O that had led the NFL in scoring the previous year and had the reigning MVP. While rotating with Terence Newman and Xavier Rhodes, he only allowed 2 catches for 30 yards while adding a pick and a couple of tackles on WR screens. Overall, he played well in coverage and was only beaten 2 other times when not targeted.

The first catch Waynes allowed came in the second quarter. The Vikings are in a Cover 6 which means Waynes will take the #1 WR on any vertical route in man. His man runs a deep in breaking route, and Waynes is unable to stay connected with the WR. As the WR makes his break, Waynes performs his speed turn and expects the WR to run a post route upfield. However, the WR breaks more towards the MOF and Waynes doesn’t stay attached and can’t recover before the catch was made. Coming out he struggled with short area COD and that’s remained a problem. He does make the tackle though without giving up any additional yardage. 


The next play of note comes on a WR screen on 2nd-and-long where Waynes comes up and makes a great play in space to limit the WR to only a 3-yard gain.


His INT comes with about 15 seconds left in the first half. It’s 3rd-and-14 and the Vikings are running a cover 2 sink. This means if Waynes doesn’t get any threat to the flats he keeps traveling with the #1 WR going deep. He does this here - knowing Andrew Sendejo is responsible for any deep ball. Unfortunately, Sendejo completely blows his assignment cheating towards the seam by the #2 WR, basically giving up a 48-yard TD going into the half. Waynes, however, shows great long speed and is able to track the underthrown ball, high-pointing it for a pick with 7 seconds left in the half. This massive play saved the Vikings from going into the half down 17-8 with an anemic offense.



The next time Waynes is targeted is all the way in the 4th quarter. He has the TE Greg Olsen in man coverage and gives up a 7-yard curl, although, again, he doesn’t give up any additional yards after the reception. Here you’d like to see Waynes make a play on the ball instead of just going for the tackle. Heading into 2017, if Waynes wants to take the next step he’s going to need to start making better plays at the catch point.



Later on in the drive facing another 2nd-and-long, the Panthers run another screen and once again Waynes comes and this time limits the WR to only a 2-yard gain.



The last play I’ll highlight comes at the end of the game when the Vikings are in a prevent defense. This play really highlights his elite speed. The RB makes the reception 4 yards behind the LOS and is only able to get out of bounds for a gain of 1 yard because of how quickly Waynes was able to close the distance.



Surprisingly, 2 of our first 3 defensive players were players who had disappointing 2016 seasons. This game does show the ability Waynes has when he's dialed in and puts it all together. He does look much better here than he ever did in his rookie season and hopefully he’s able to take another leap as he slides into a starting role for the 2017 season. I doubt he’ll ever be elite in coverage vs shiftier WRs due to his COD struggles, but if he works on making more plays at the catch point he can fill in the #2 CB spot across from Rhodes.


Before the season kicks off, I'll be taking a look at the Vikings' best offensive and defensive player each game and highlighting exactly why and how they had such a good game. For simplicity sake,

Before the season kicks off, I'll be taking a look at the Vikings' best offensive and defensive player each game and highlighting exactly why and how they had such a good game. For simplicity sake, I'll be choosing whoever PFF rated as the best player on each side of the ball that week. Right now that's the easiest way to do it, but I'm open to other suggestions like possibly a vote for the upcoming season.

Week number two, the Vikings opened up their new stadium with a game versus their bitter rivals: the Green Bay Packers. It was a close game with the Vikings D showing up in a big way, limiting Aaron Rodgers and Co. to only 14 points. The best player on the defense may be surprising now that the season is done, but Anthony Barr had a stellar game to lead the Vikings D. On the stat sheet Barr ended up with only two tackles for the game, yet somehow he ended up being the highest-graded Viking on D, barely edging out Captain Munnerlyn. How does something like that happen?

Linebackers in the NFL are often judged off of one thing: tackles. If you aren’t racking them up, you aren’t playing well in the eyes of most people. Yes, usually good linebackers rack up tackles, but different linebackers have different roles on different defenses. Some schemes funnel the ball carrier to a certain player while the other linebackers take on blockers and dictate the path of the ball carrier. Some schemes have the defensive line flying upfield to wreak havoc, and others have their DL play more controlled and have them occupy offensive linemen - making it easier for linebackers to flow to the ball carrier. When examining a linebacker's play you have to look at more than the results. Anthony Barr plays the Sam linebacker spot in the Vikings' defense, and this requires him to take on a lot of blocks. So when looking at his impact in the run game you have to look at what happens before the tackle as much as who makes the tackle. It’s like how a good DB doesn’t always get the ball thrown at him; you have to look at what happens before the ball is thrown just as well as what happens after it’s thrown. With that being said, let’s get to it!

Week 2 versus the Packers in 2016 was a vintage Anthony Barr performance. He did it all: versus the run, in coverage, and when rushing the passer.

Versus the run - as I highlighted - Barr didn’t make many tackles, but he did have a big impact. He was aggressive attacking the LOS this game - something we didn’t see often last season.

This is a good example of filling your gap and forcing the runner somewhere else to get tackled. Barr attacks upfield and beats the OG. At this point the runner basically chooses who gets the tackle: Barr or Kendricks.



On this 3rd quarter play, Barr blows up the OG and forces the runner to cut back - leading to a TFL. Barr knocks the OG three yards into the backfield completely disrupting the play even without making the tackle.



Here's the play in its entirety. Notice how aggressive he is attacking the blocker. We didn't see that often last year even when he was blitzing.



On this play he reads toss and does an excellent job of leveraging the RB. He mirrors the RB as he moves laterally before coming up and making the tackle for just a yard gain.



This play shows everything we wish Barr would consistently do: here he reads the play, shoots the open window, and drops Eddie Lacy for no gain.



In coverage Barr was usually responsible for the checkdown option. Whenever the Vikings pass rush was getting home or the back end was locked down, Rodgers looked to his checkdown but he was never able to go to him. This helped force Aaron Rodgers to hold onto the ball and try to scramble which led to three fumbles and five sacks.

Here’s a clear example of Rodgers looking to hit his checkdown option, which is blanketed, leading to a sack.



Barr didn’t rush the passer too often this game, but when he did he flashed the ability that makes him such a unique weapon.

On this blitz, Barr feigns dropping back before exploding past the OL into the backfield. He really shows an elite level of burst here, even clearing the OGs hands as he runs by him.


On another rush in the 4th quarter, Barr gets matched up on a LB and it was over before it started. He puts a swim move on the blocker and forces another rushed throw by Rodgers which leads to a dropped pick.



This game we got to see one of the rare appearances of 2015 Anthony Barr. He was contributing in all facets of the game, but most importantly, he was aggressive. That wasn’t something we saw often throughout the 2016 season, and if Barr is looking for a contract extension he better take his intensity level up another notch in 2017. 
Before the season kicks off, I'll be taking a look at the Vikings' best offensive and defensive player each game and highlighting exactly why and how they had such a good game. For simplicity sake,

Before the season kicks off, I'll be taking a look at the Vikings' best offensive and defensive player each game and highlighting exactly why and how they had such a good game. For simplicity sake, I'll be choosing whoever PFF rated as the best player on each side of the ball that week. Right now that's the easiest way to do it, but I'm open to other suggestions like possibly a vote for the upcoming season.


Game 2 brought more of the same for the Vikings O. It was another mediocre performance, with the O only scoring 17 points. With that said, it was another spectacular showing from Stefon Diggs. Diggs really showcased his skillset this game, constantly torching the Packers DBs all over the field. He had 9 receptions for 182 yards and a TD. Six of those receptions were for first downs, two of them went for 40+ yards, and there’s even a 4th down conversion in there.

Here he runs a simple 5-yard hitch that turns into a 15-yard gain because of his ability to make two defenders miss.



Early in the second quarter, it’s 4th and 2 and the Vikings are looking for their go-to WR. Diggs motions across the formation which shows it is man coverage from the Packers DBs. The DB is playing with an inside alignment, so Diggs hits a jab step outside causing the DB to freeze up, allowing Diggs to cross his face and make the 4-yard reception.



On the first of his 40+ yards receptions, Diggs is being manned up and runs right by the DB and makes a catch falling down. Here he's displaying not only the necessary speed to be a downfield threat but also the ability to track the ball over his shoulder without slowing down. He makes the tough catch.



This is the type of grab he's capable of consistently making.



Here’s another short catch where Diggs showcases his ability to make a defender miss on his way to picking up a first down.



On the second of his two 40+ yards receptions, the LBs get sucked up on PA clearing the MOF and allowing Diggs to turn a 15-yard reception into 46.



Four plays later, it’s the play of the game. Diggs releases inside then cuts outside getting the CB to turn with him thinking it’s a fade route. But Diggs isn’t done yet, so he cuts back inside completely turning the CB inside out before making a great hands catch in the back of the end zone. Diggs extends to catch the ball and kept it as far away from his body as possible, preventing the DB from knocking it out. Oh ... and he does all of this through pass interference...




This last play wasn’t a catch, but it was another key play by Diggs. It’s 3rd and 6 with 1:40 left, and the Vikings are only up by three. Diggs is the only WR on the play and he’s singled up in man coverage. The Vikings run a PA pass and Bradford only has Diggs in his sights. Diggs runs a post route first releasing inside, he then shows some savvy by leaning into the CB's body before cutting back inside to create some extra space. This causes the CB to get way too grabby - hooking Diggs and committing pass interference, essentially icing the game.



This was probably the best game of Diggs' young career. The Packers played a lot of man and he absolutely torched them up and down the entire field. I know those DBs were having nightmares about him for days after this game. Diggs really displayed his ability to make guys miss, make great hands catches, and to rip off big plays showing us another glimpse of how deadly of a weapon he can be for our offense on all levels of the field. 
Before the season kicks off, I'll be taking a look at the Vikings' best offensive and defensive player each game and highlighting exactly why and how they had such a good game. For simplicity sake,

Before the season kicks off, I'll be taking a look at the Vikings' best offensive and defensive player each game and highlighting exactly why and how they had such a good game. For simplicity sake, I'll be choosing whoever PFF rated as the best player on each side of the ball that week. Right now that's the easiest way to do it, but I'm open to other suggestions like possibly a vote for the upcoming season.

Our first week we played the Tennessee Titans and our defense put on a show, basically winning the game off of points they scored alone. Eric Kendricks and Danielle Hunter both scored defensive TDs, but the player with the highest grade on D was a player with a little more consistency and a little less flash: Harrison Smith. Harrison Smith is the undisputed best player on the entire Vikings roster. He's the definition of a versatile safety, capable of performing any task you could ask of a safety at a high level. Versus the Titans, Harrison really exemplified the word "safety". On at least four separate occasions Smith made the tackle to prevent a much bigger gain after another Viking had whiffed on a tackle.

Here is a screenshot of a 2nd down play where the Titans ran a QB draw. This is the point Smith recognizes the play and starts coming downhill. Mariota hasn't even tipped off he was going to run yet, but Smith was able to read the center and the fact that the D was in poor position to stop that play and is able to prevent the first down.




On this play it's 3rd and 2 in the 2nd quarter. Anthony Barr goes on a blitz but fails to notice the RB leaking out of the backfield. This gives Marcus Mariota an easy read on his hot route and now we're in a situation where the Titans have their 6'4 245lb alien RB running free down the sideline. Smith, however, picks this up immediately and is able to bring down Derrick Henry pretty easily for a 12-yard gain.



Smith and Henry actually had several meetings this game with Smith often coming out on top. Here are two plays where Smith lines up on the edge and is able to shoot in the backfield and bring down Henry. The first one is for no gain on 3rd and 1 and the second one is a TFL on first down.





Just a reminder for those reading this, Derrick Henry and Harrison Smith are both 6'2. Smith, however, weighs 218lbs while Henry checks in at 247lbs. That's basically a 30-pound difference... And Smith is bringing him down with relative ease. That's not something you see often from NFL safeties.

In coverage, Harrison Smith was a blanket. On many occasions he clearly took away Mariota's first option, forcing him to go (unsuccessfully) somewhere else with the ball. He was only thrown at once while being the main defender in coverage and Smith forced the incompletion.


This play really highlights how versatile Smith is. He lines up on the left edge threatening to blitz then just before the ball is snapped he gets back to play a deep quarter role. Once back there he picks up the WR running the dig and breaks on the ball as it's thrown leading to an incomplete pass. This isn't a play many DCs would ask their safety to make, but Smith does it with relative ease.

Although the stat sheet shows Smith had zero picks this game, he actually had one called back because of an extremely soft roughing the passer penalty. On this play Smith is playing a deep half role. The ball is actually pretty badly thrown behind the WR, but Smith broke on it as soon as the QB threw the ball and instead of playing the man, he locked on to the path of the ball and made a spectacular catch for the pick.



Throughout the game, Smith was clearly the best player on defense, with his presence being felt all across the field. This is not even taking into account that he is the leader on the back end making sure all the DBs are on the same page. He made a handful of splash plays in both the run and pass game and even though he didn't produce one of the two TDs we scored on D, he played a massive role in limiting the Titans' offense and securing the Vikings' first win.Before the season kicks off, I'll be taking a look at the Vikings' best offensive and defensive player each game and highlighting exactly why and how they had such a good game. For simplicity sake,

Before the season kicks off, I'll be taking a look at the Vikings' best offensive and defensive player each game and highlighting exactly why and how they had such a good game. For simplicity sake, I'll be choosing whoever PFF rated as the best player on each side of the ball that week. Right now that's the easiest way to do it, but I'm open to other suggestions like possibly a vote for the upcoming season.

Week 1 versus the Tennessee Titans, we scored two defensive TDs and kicked three FGs, so our O wasn’t very successful. We couldn't get anything going on the ground, and Shaun Hill wasn't exactly lighting anyone up. However, there was one player who was able to shine despite the circumstances, and that was Stefon Diggs.

Diggs had 7 receptions for 103 yards to go with six first downs. He did the majority of his damage in the intermediate area, making three catches on deep curls.



The first curl is the only one where he didn’t gain a first down. He ran the route to 5 yards in front of the LB and after the catch shows his slippery ability to make people miss and pick up additional yardage.

On his other curls he makes sure to really sell the deep route to the DBs before stopping on a dime and picking up two easy first down catches.




Two of his catches were on simple out routes for first downs. Although they were technically the same route the way he runs them varies and shows some of the nuances that makes Diggs a top flight route runner.


The first one is versus a Cover 3 look so Diggs sells the deep route versus the corner before making his break. This forces the DB to open up his hips and gives Diggs the space he needs to undercut the DB and high point the ball.



The second out is versus a Cover 1. Look where Diggs starts off aligned in the slot. The DB is playing with outside leverage so first Diggs sells the inside route before breaking back out just as the DB starts to commit, and this allows him to shield the DB from the ball and high point it for another first down.

His biggest play of the game was on a fade route. Off the line he gives a stutter to freeze the CB and get a read on him. He then beats the CB down the sideline but has to adjust to an underthrown ball to his back shoulder in order to make another contested catch for a first down.



The biggest play that didn’t happen was on the post route where Diggs sprung free in the end zone. It was the perfect call versus quarters as the Titans safety and corner fail to communicate on the scissor combo by Diggs and Rudolph. This frees up Diggs, but Hill was unable to put the ball in a spot where he could have a chance to make a play.



When you just look at the numbers, Diggs put together a 100-yard game for an anemic offense. Taking a closer look at his catches though gives a glimpse into the type of player Diggs is and what makes him a special player. His ability to vary his routes versus different coverages, stop on a dime, and attack/adjust to the ball, all contribute to the first of many good games for Diggs in the 2016 season.
Before the season kicks off, I'll be taking a look at the Vikings' best offensive and defensive player each game and highlighting exactly why and how they had such a good game. For simplicity sake,