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[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes

By MidwinterViking Apr 20, 2022 15:09:10 GMT -6 23 Replies

A really good question was asked in response to the Run it Back! post I made: How many coaching changes have resulted in a significant change to team performance? That post suggested the team needed to improve by 6 PPG over the field.

To answer this, I loaded the franchise history for teams back to 1970 (same time frame as that article). Again, this is using the same PPG advantage as the Run it Back! post. Here is what I found:

I counted 319 coaching changes since 1970.

If there was a mid-season coaching change, I didn't count that (that's a train-wreck, not a coaching change). The change is attributed to the first year of the new coach.

There were some huge swings in the early decades of the NFL, so I also filtered to recent changes:
Recent = anything since 2000

Total coaching changes: 319
Recent coaching changes: 140

Total coaching changes that corresponded with a +6 or greater change: 90 (28% of all changes)
Recent coaching changes that corresponded with a +6 or greater change: 37 (26%)

Total coaching changes with a huge gain, +10 or more: 33 (10%)
Recent coaching changes with a huge gain, +10 or more: 20 (14%)

Total changes that showed some improvement (+1 or better): 181 (57%)
Recent changes that showed some improvement (+1 or better): 81 (58%)

Average impact of all changes: +1.98
Average impact of recent changes: +2.45

Vikings' coaching changes: 8 (remember, I skipped mid-year changes)
Vikings' coaching changes with +6 or greater impact: 3

- 1985: +12.2
- 1986: +8.6 (that's right, back-to-back years. Les Steckel's 1984 Vikings set a really low bar)
- 1992: +8.1

Some changes to be in awe of and give the team hope:

Matt Nagy's 2018 Bears: +12.1
Frank Reich's 2018 Colts: +14.4
Doug Marrone's 2017 Jaguars: +14.4
Sean McVay's 2017 Rams: +19.9
Andy Reid's 2013 Chiefs: +21.1

Some cautionary tales for the doomers:

Vance Joseph's 2017 Broncos: -8.1
Marc Trestman's 2013 Bears: -8.2
Steve Wilks' 2018 Cardinals: -8.4
Ken Whisenhunt's 2014 Titans: -10.3
Raheem Morris' 2009 Bucs: -12.1

And for bonus fun: the "pointlessness award" goes to Al Groh's 2000 Jets: started at 0, moved to 0 for a net change of 0. Groh was fired after one year; he never had a chance to Groh on anyone.

How are we feeling, Vikings fans? This piece change anything for you?

[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes

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[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes Apr 20, 2022 15:09:10 GMT -6 Reignman, Funkytown, and 6 more like this

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Post by MidwinterViking on Apr 20, 2022 15:09:10 GMT -6

Last Edit: Apr 25, 2022 9:27:53 GMT -6 by Purple Pain

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[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes Apr 20, 2022 15:53:01 GMT -6 Funkytown and MidwinterViking like this

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Post by Uncle on Apr 20, 2022 15:53:01 GMT -6

Apr 20, 2022 15:09:10 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

McVay's 2017 Rams: +19.9

This is one that sticks out a bit because our current HC comes from that system and McVay's 2017 Rams pretty much resembled the 2016 Rams that finished 4-12 - the two differences were the Rams drafting WR Cooper Cupp in Rd 2 of the 2017 Draft and signing Andre Whitworth to play LT in the 2017 offseason (same offseason we signed Reiff and Carolina signed Kalil).

Apr 20, 2022 15:09:10 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

Recent coaching changes that corresponded with a +6 or grater change: 37 (26%)

This is also an interesting statistic. That means, of the new 10 Head Coaches in the NFL for the 2022 season, 25% of them (basically 2 or 3) will correspond to a +6 or greater change PPG over the field.

Last Edit: Apr 20, 2022 16:04:45 GMT -6 by Uncle

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[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes Apr 20, 2022 16:03:36 GMT -6 Funkytown, diehardtwinsfan, and 1 more like this

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Post by Danchat on Apr 20, 2022 16:03:36 GMT -6

Good analysis, MidwinterViking! I'd like to come back to this after the season is over and see how the 10 new HCs get put onto the chart.

I forgot how good of a start Nagy got off to - boy, wasn't that a mirage?

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[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes Apr 20, 2022 16:07:53 GMT -6 Funkytown likes this

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Post by whoskmoon on Apr 20, 2022 16:07:53 GMT -6

Great stuff and kind of what you would expect. For the most part, bad teams fire their coaches and have nowhere to go but up while teams that were good and fired their coaches did so because the team was heading in the wrong direction. So most bad teams get better while most good teams get worse.

Looking at your best case scenarios since that is what ownership must think will be happening:

Nagy's 2018 Bears: +12.1 - Terrible coach took over a team with a defense on the verge of greatness and added an elite pass rusher along with upgrading significantly at QB (yes, 2nd year Trubiskey was a significant upgrade over his rookie self and Mike Glennon). Coaching did play a part too, but it was the DC who had the biggest impact, not the HC.
Reich's 2018 Colts: +14.4 - Went from Brisset as their leading passer to Andrew Luck.
Marrone's 2017 Jaguars: +14.4 - They added a lot of talent on this team, but neither the coaching change (Marrone is not a good enough coach to improve a team this much) or talent should have resulted in this big of a shift. A bit of an enigma.
McVay's 2017 Rams: +19.9 - Great coach who took over a team lead by a rookie and Case Keenum the previous year.
Reid's 2013 Chiefs: +21.1 - Great coach who replaced a terrible QB with a solid one

Even the elite coaches needed a large shift in talent to improve their teams as significantly as they did and only Marrone did so without significantly improving at QB. They all also took over teams that had bottomed out the previous year(s). That meant lots of young talent drafted early to go with a shift at the top plus a lot of cap space and a change at QB. Exactly what a lot of people on here were calling for after two mediocre seasons, but that we aren't going to get.

Last Edit: Apr 20, 2022 16:09:48 GMT -6 by whoskmoon

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[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes Apr 20, 2022 17:18:15 GMT -6 via mobile Funkytown likes this

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Post by PurpleFloyd on Apr 20, 2022 17:18:15 GMT -6

This is a cool topic. I wonder how the metrics change if separated by changes due to being fired vs changes due to promotion or retirement. Considering we are trying to set a metric for what to reasonably expect from our change it would be most accurate to use changes where a coach was fired.

But maybe that doesn’t matter either

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[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes Apr 21, 2022 9:43:29 GMT -6 Funkytown likes this

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Post by MidwinterViking on Apr 21, 2022 9:43:29 GMT -6

Apr 20, 2022 16:03:36 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Good analysis, MidwinterViking ! I'd like to come back to this after the season is over and see how the 10 new HCs get put onto the chart.

I forgot how good of a start Nagy got off to - boy, wasn't that a mirage?

Good idea, here is their current starting point:

The Jaguars are easily the leaders for potential improvement because of how horrible they were. The coaching bar is so low for Doug Pederson, if he can just avoid groping co-eds in a tacky restaurant in his old college town he's already ahead. Plus the Jaguars will be in a Bengals style situation where they lost one of their 1st round picks (Travis Etienne) last year to injury before the season started. The 2021 Bears didn't look competitive, the Jaguars could get a +6 change and still be worse than those 2021 Bears.

Saints and Raiders strike me as potential regression. And we'll see with the Bears, they haven't added much talent and don't have a 1st round pick, things could get bad there.

diehardtwinsfan Moderator Posts: 11,930 Likes: 7,473 Member is Online	[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes Apr 21, 2022 11:01:45 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by diehardtwinsfan on Apr 21, 2022 11:01:45 GMT -6 Is this points per game or point differential per game? PPG seems very offensively biased.

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[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes Apr 21, 2022 12:15:27 GMT -6

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Post by vikingpwr on Apr 21, 2022 12:15:27 GMT -6

Apr 20, 2022 15:09:10 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

McVay's 2017 Rams: +19.9

Apr 20, 2022 15:53:01 GMT -6 Uncle said:

That was a huge turn around for the Rams!!

The Rams added free agents Robert Woods, John Sullivan, Connor Barwin, Kayvon Webster and Nickell-Robey Coleman. Picked up G Austin Blyth from waivers....They also changed a sh*t load of coaches. They went from Gregg Williams 4-3 D to Wade Phillips' 3-4 and got Aaron Kromer to coach their OL. What exactly did you mean by the 2017 team pretty much resembled the 2016 team?

Last Edit: Apr 21, 2022 12:18:59 GMT -6 by vikingpwr

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[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes Apr 23, 2022 20:00:18 GMT -6

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Post by mngopher35 on Apr 23, 2022 20:00:18 GMT -6

Interesting breakdown, thanks for sharing.

It seems like for the most part the large improvements came from teams that were really bad the year prior. That doesn't really fit where we are right now unfortunately though as we are more middle of the pack. The upside that I see though is the list of coaches that posted the largest improvements. As far as I am aware they are all offensive minded coaches just like KOC. That seems relatable to us even if we are unlikely to match the same exact level of improvement.

I think if changing systems is as effective for us as some of those bad teams that we could see decent improvement even if not quite at that level. Our offense has the talent to be top 5 potentially if he is as good as many hope.

wxman91 Practice Squad Posts: 187 Likes: 164	[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes Apr 25, 2022 10:25:12 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by wxman91 on Apr 25, 2022 10:25:12 GMT -6 Nice work, per usual. There are a lot of intricacies to the data, but the sample size is significant enough.

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[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes May 9, 2022 8:45:14 GMT -6

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Post by Funkytown on May 9, 2022 8:45:14 GMT -6

Until now, we haven’t had a good way of measuring how many wins a coach or a coaching staff adds to a team. And that’s where a metric named Wins Over Expected Coaching (WOEC) can come into play.

PFF went about measuring head coaches by creating two different models: one that assumes they don’t have much control over the talent on their roster and one that says they do.

Parker Fleming from CFB Graphs was able to create one model when he did college football WOEC, since college football coaches have control over both their roster and the play on the field. But in the NFL, each team’s head coach has a differing amount of influence over their roster.

The first model we can look at is the one that assumes a head coach is there to just coach and is not involved in personnel decisions. Using PFF’s facet grades, we can see how the different position group performances impact wins.

If a coach is given a good quarterback (Pass), receivers (Receiving) and coverage unit, they can be expected to win a large number of games. Depending on how many games they actually win (with adjustments for fluky wins and losses), we get a WOEC score for each coach with a ceiling and floor for their worst- and best-case scenarios.

Even though this considers only regular-season performance, the top of the list is littered with Super Bowl-winning head coaches since 2009. New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has won the championship three times in this period, while Andy Reid, Sean Payton, John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin and Pete Carroll all have rings of their own.

On the other side, infamous head coaches such as Adam Gase and Jeff Fisher show up low in WOEC, confirming priors that they took wins away from their roster.

The most interesting thing is how dominant Belichick has been as a head coach. His 1.25 wins over expected per year would have been worth more than every non-quarterback in the league last year not named Jaire Alexander (who generated a WAR of 1.32). However, over the last four years, Belichick seems to be losing his edge over the rest of the league.

...

Couple other charts:

Post by MidwinterViking on May 10, 2022 10:05:35 GMT -6

May 9, 2022 8:45:14 GMT -6 Funkytown said:

The first model we can look at is the one that assumes a head coach is there to just coach and is not involved in personnel decisions. Using PFF’s facet grades, we can see how the different position group performances impact wins.

I have one major problem with this: they say that players produce a collection of PFF scores that determine how good the team is - then coaches use strategy to influence the number of wins up or down. The piece they leave out is:

Coaches can have a huge impact on player PFF.

I've been looking at Bashaud Breeland a lot this offseason, trying to figure out if he was just bad (and new players are the fix) or if coaching and schemes set him up to fail (and the coaching change is the fix). Looking at Breeland's career PFF grades (and team wins):
2014: 48.8 (was 4)
2015: 74.1 (was 9)
2016: 60.6 (was 8)
2017: 68.8 (was 8)
2018: 58.5 (gb 6)
2019: 48.3 (kc 12)
2020: 67.7 (kc 14)
2021: 47.2 (min 8)

So the same guy falls somewhere between "solid starter" and "total liability". With hundreds of snaps every year, his pff score is a reasonable reflection of how he executed what he was asked to do.

Looking just at Breeland, WOEC would say that in 2019, Andy Reid did an amazing job, getting all those wins with a team with bad-Breeland, while 2020 Andy Reid didn't really do much because good-Breeland earnd all the wins.

Since Breeland is a known quantity, a more reasonable assessment is the 2020 was actually the better job coaching because Reid had Breeland performing a role he was good at. Good coaches should be able to coax higher pff grades out of guys like Breeland by playing to their strengths. I'd be curious what pff data shows for changes in player pff grades under different coaches (with higer = better coaching).

Last Edit: May 10, 2022 10:08:33 GMT -6 by MidwinterViking

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[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes May 24, 2022 9:38:08 GMT -6

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Post by Funkytown on May 24, 2022 9:38:08 GMT -6

Purple Insider's SKOL Searching: Where will Kevin O'Connell fit within the history of rookie head coaches by Paul Hodowanic

The history of first-year HCs

There are often two types of teams that first-year head coaches take over. There are the complete tear-downs, like the Chicago Bears and every coach the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans hire. Then there are the teams that view the head coach as one of a limited number of “missing pieces” on the roster holding them back from contention. That’s the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins this year. That’s also the Minnesota Vikings.

While an argument could’ve been made for a complete roster overhaul, ownership, and the new regime clearly believe they have the necessary pieces to win immediately. The return of Kirk Cousins and the restructuring of Adam Thielen and Harrison Smith’s contract show that. The free-agent signings show that. And to a lesser extent, the draft shows that.

Now in May, with offseason programs beginning and the Vikings having just over $7 million in effective cap space, the roster we see today will largely look exactly the same come September.

How much success have first-year head coaches in similar spots had? Let’s try to find the closest comparisons to the Vikings to see if we can get a glimpse of what 2022 may yield.

The Numbers

Overall record since 2008 of first-year head coaches (including repeat and rookie coaches): 634-822-3 (.435)

Overall record since 2008 of rookie first-year head coaches: 460-598-2 (.435)

There really has been no difference in the success of a veteran head coach or a rookie head coach in their first season. It should be noted that teams overwhelmingly hire rookie head coaches. Since 2008, 72 of the 99 head coaches that have been hired have been rookie head coaches.

How many have made the playoffs?

If you look at the 91 coaches that have coached one season (basically removing all the 2022 head coaching hires) only 25 made the playoffs in their first season (27.5%). However, unlike overall record, rookie head coaches have made the playoffs much more frequently – 18 of the 25 head coaches to make the playoffs in their first year were rookie head coaches (72%).

That’s normally where the success has stopped, though. Only seven of those rookie head coaches made it past the wild card round, five made it past the divisional round and just one has made it to the Super Bowl (Jim Caldwell).

In short, it’s difficult. There is a reason teams fire their head coach, and while it’s often under the guise of being “one piece away,” that’s frequently far from the truth. However, let’s look at some of the teams with rookie head coaches that did make the playoffs and see how the Vikings compare.

2021

Philadelphia Eagles - Nick Sirianni - Lost in the Wild Card round

2020

Cleveland Browns - Kevin Stefanski - Lost in the Divisional round

2019

Green Bay Packers - Matt LaFleur - Lost in the NFC Championship game

2018

Indianapolis Colts - Frank Reich - Lost in the Divisional round

Chicago Bears - Matt Nagy - Lost in the Wild Card round

2017

Buffalo Bills - Sean McDermott - Lost in the Wild Card round

Los Angeles Rams - Sean McVay - Lost in the Wild Card round

2016

New York Giants - Ben McAdoo - Lost in the Wild Card round

Miami Dolphins - Adam Gase - Lost in the Wild Card round

2015

None

2014

None

On average, the NFL sees about one of these rookie head coaches take their teams to the playoffs. And for every one of these success stories, there are five or six coaches who failed to make the playoffs. I won’t list those out for every year, but in the last three years, the is the group: Brian Flores, Zac Taylor, Vic Fangio, Freddie Kitchens, Kliff Kingsbury, Matt Rhule, Joe Judge, Arthur Smith, Dan Campbell, Brandon Staley, David Culley, Urban Meyer, Robert Salah.

But looking at the rookie head coaches that did make the list, there are two pretty clear factions: Teams with quarterbacks on rookie contracts and teams with a star quarterback.

...

With this iteration of the Vikings, that is the hope. They’ve pushed money down the road again and have Cousins signed for the next two seasons. They are hoping to give it a run in the next two years. And if they go 13-3 in 2023, it will likely be because they laid the groundwork with a moderately successful first season as the Chargers did in 2017.

My biggest takeaway was that most first-year head coaches don’t immediately find success. Just over 25 percent of rookie head coaches make the playoffs. And if they have any aspirations of making it past the first round of the playoffs, they either need to have a star quarterback like Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck, or immediately need to show their coaching chops, like Kevin Stefanski.

But what’s intriguing is Vikings don’t fit traditionally into what a team with a first-year head coach looks like. Most rookie head coaches are tasked with rebuilding, not retooling. And the retooling teams often have better quarterbacks. So where will the Vikings and Kevin O’Connell fall? The best part is we don’t know. For much of the Zimmer era, it was almost assured Minnesota would finish right around .500. That is no longer the case, for better or worse.

Rest at link:

purpleinsider.substack.com/p/skol-searching-the-history-of-rookie?s=r

Last Edit: May 24, 2022 9:38:35 GMT -6 by Funkytown

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[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes Jun 1, 2022 0:20:10 GMT -6 Funkytown likes this

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Post by Reignman on Jun 1, 2022 0:20:10 GMT -6

Interesting topic, but why are we using all the fancy stats to analyze coaching changes? How does all this translate to what we care about most, wins and losses? Well wonder no more because I've done the translating. Since 2002, 108 coaches have been fired, and coincidentally 108 have been hired to replace them. This exercise won't include coaches who retired, quit, or stepped down.

So what can we expect from KOC? Of the 108 coaching changes, 70 led to an increase in wins the following year, 29 got worse, and 9 remained the same, for an overall average of about 1.69 more wins. Good news I suppose. The bad news is, none of these teams made it to a Super Bowl, only 8 made it to the conference championship, and only 25 (23.1%) even made it to the playoffs, in a league where 38% (now 44%) of the teams make it to the playoffs.

It's worse for teams that fired coaches in the 7 to 9 win territory. Of those 20 teams, only 5 got better the following year and 10 got worse, for an average of 1.1 games worse. Only 1 won double digit games, and only 4 made the playoffs. The Vikings fired Tice after a 9-7 season and the new offensive guru we brought in to replace him went 6-10 with his squirt in the hole kick ass offense. To be fair, Chilly had Brad Johnson, Chester Taylor, Travis Taylor, Williamson, Robinson, and Wiggins on offense to work with. O'Connell has been blessed with better tools.

Complete list of coaching changes since 2002, sorted by best improvement:

SPOILER: Click to show

YEAR TM  FIRED COACH       W  L T      YEAR NEW COACH         W  L T  CHANGE
2007 MIA Cam Cameron       1 15 0      2008 Tony Sparano     11  5 0    10
2011 IND Jim Caldwell      2 14 0      2012 Chuck Pagano     11  5 0     9
2012 KAN Romeo Crennel     2 14 0      2013 Andy Reid        11  5 0     9
2018 GRB Mike McCarthy     6  9 1      2019 Matt LaFleur     13  3 0     7
2010 SAF Mike Singletary   6 10 0      2011 Jim Harbaugh     13  3 0     7
2017 CHI John Fox          5 11 0      2018 Matt Nagy        12  4 0     7
2016 LOR Jeff Fisher       4 12 0      2017 Sean McVay       11  5 0     7
2016 JAX Gus Bradley       3 13 0      2017 Doug Marrone     10  6 0     7
2005 NOS Jim Haslett       3 13 0      2006 Sean Payton      10  6 0     7
2013 HOU Gary Kubiak       2 14 0      2014 Bill O'Brien      9  7 0     7
2003 ATL Dan Reeves        5 11 0      2004 Mike Smith       11  5 0     6
2007 BAL Brian Billick     5 11 0      2008 John Harbaugh    11  5 0     6
2017 IND Chuck Pagano      4 12 0      2018 Frank Reich      10  6 0     6
2014 NYJ Rex Ryan          4 12 0      2015 Todd Bowles      10  6 0     6
2012 PHI Andy Reid         4 12 0      2013 Chip Kelly       10  6 0     6
2015 TEN Ken Whisenhunt    3 13 0      2016 Mike Mularkey     9  7 0     6
2002 CIN Dick LeBeau       2 14 0      2003 Marvin Lewis      8  8 0     6
2019 CLE Freddie Kitchens  6 10 0      2020 Kevin Stefanski  11  5 0     5
2002 DAL Dave Campo        5 11 0      2003 Bill Parcells    10  6 0     5
2012 ARZ Ken Whisenhunt    5 11 0      2013 Bruce Arians     10  6 0     5
2020 PHI Doug Pederson     4 11 1      2021 Nick Sirianni     9  8 0     5
2011 LOR Steve Spagnuolo   2 14 0      2012 Jeff Fisher       7  8 1     5
2013 DET Jim Schwartz      7  9 0      2014 Jim Caldwell     11  5 0     4
2015 MIA Joe Philbin       6 10 0      2016 Adam Gase        10  6 0     4
2016 LOC Mike McCoy        5 11 0      2017 Anthony Lynn      9  7 0     4
2010 DEN Josh McDaniels    4 12 0      2011 John Fox          8  8 0     4
2005 GRB Mike Sherman      4 12 0      2006 Mike McCarthy     8  8 0     4
2019 WAS Jay Gruden        3 13 0      2020 Ron Rivera        7  9 0     4
2014 LAV Dennis Allen      3 13 0      2015 Jack Del Rio      7  9 0     4
2016 SAF Chip Kelly        2 14 0      2017 Kyle Shanahan     6 10 0     4
2005 HOU Dom Capers        2 14 0      2006 Gary Kubiak       6 10 0     4
2010 CAR John Fox          2 14 0      2011 Ron Rivera        6 10 0     4
2010 TEN Jeff Fisher       6 10 0      2011 Mike Munchak      9  7 0     3
2003 BUF Gregg Williams    6 10 0      2004 Mike Mularkey     9  7 0     3
2015 TAM Lovie Smith       6 10 0      2016 Dirk Koetter      9  7 0     3
2006 ARZ Dennis Green      5 11 0      2007 Ken Whisenhunt    8  8 0     3
2018 NYJ Todd Bowles       4 12 0      2019 Adam Gase         7  9 0     3
2011 TAM Raheem Morris     4 12 0      2012 Greg Shiano       7  9 0     3
2020 ATL Dan Quinn         4 12 0      2021 Arthur Smith      7 10 0     3
2013 CLE Rob Chudzinski    4 12 0      2014 Mike Pettine      7  9 0     3
2016 BUF Rex Ryan          7  9 0      2017 Sean McDermott    9  7 0     2
2020 LOC Anthony Lynn      7  9 0      2021 Brandon Staley    9  8 0     2
2012 LOC Norv Turner       7  9 0      2013 Mike McCoy        9  7 0     2
2014 ATL Mike Smith        6 10 0      2015 Dan Quinn         8  8 0     2
2010 DAL Wade Phillips     6 10 0      2011 Jason Garrett     8  8 0     2
2013 MIN Leslie Frazier    5 10 1      2014 Mike Zimmer       7  9 0     2
2018 TAM Dirk Koetter      5 11 0      2019 Bruce Arians      7  9 0     2
2009 SEA Jim L Mora        5 11 0      2010 Pete Carroll      7  9 0     2
2019 NYG Pat Shurmur       4 12 0      2020 Joe Judge         6 10 0     2
2003 ARZ Dave McGinnis     4 12 0      2004 Dennis Green      6 10 0     2
2004 CLE Terry Robiskie    4 12 0      2005 Romeo Crennel     6 10 0     2
2003 NYG Jim Fassel        4 12 0      2004 Tom Coughlin      6 10 0     2
2009 WAS Jim Zorn          4 12 0      2010 Mike Shanahan     6 10 0     2
2002 DET Marty Mornhinweg  3 13 0      2003 Steve Mariucci    5 11 0     2
2017 NYG Ben McAdoo        3 13 0      2018 Pat Shurmur       5 11 0     2
2018 ARZ Steve Wilks       3 13 0      2019 Kliff Kingsbury   5 10 1     2
2008 KAN Herm Edwards      2 14 0      2009 Todd Haley        4 12 0     2
2012 JAX Mike Mularkey     2 14 0      2013 Gus Bradley       4 12 0     2
2020 NYJ Adam Gase         2 14 0      2021 Robert Saleh      4 13 0     2
2004 SAF Dennis Erickson   2 14 0      2005 Mike Nolan        4 12 0     2
2006 LAV Art Shell         2 14 0      2007 Lane Kiffin       4 12 0     2
2020 JAX Doug Marrone      1 15 0      2021 Urban Meyer       3 14 0     2
2008 DET Rod Marinelli     0 16 0      2009 Jim Schwartz      2 14 0     2
2008 SAF Mike Nolan        7  9 0      2009 Mike Singletary   8  8 0     1
2018 DEN Vance Joseph      6 10 0      2019 Vic Fangio        7  9 0     1
2011 MIA Tony Sparano      6 10 0      2012 Joe Philbin       7  9 0     1
2014 CHI Marc Trestman     5 11 0      2015 John Fox          6 10 0     1
2003 LAV Bill Callahan     4 12 0      2004 Norv Turner       5 11 0     1
2008 CLE Romeo Crennel     4 12 0      2009 Eric Mangini      5 11 0     1
2013 WAS Mike Shanahan     3 13 0      2014 Jay Gruden        4 12 0     1
2008 NYJ Eric Mangini      9  7 0      2009 Rex Ryan          9  7 0     0
2017 TEN Mike Mularkey     9  7 0      2018 Mike Vrabel       9  7 0     0
2008 DEN Mike Shanahan     8  8 0      2009 Josh McDaniels    8  8 0     0
2010 LAV Tom Cable         8  8 0      2011 Hue Jackson       8  8 0     0
2015 PHI Chip Kelly        7  9 0      2016 Doug Pederson     7  9 0     0
2012 BUF Chan Gailey       6 10 0      2013 Doug Marrone      6 10 0     0
2019 CAR Ron Rivera        5 11 0      2020 Matt Rhule        5 11 0     0
2008 LAV Lane Kiffin       5 11 0      2009 Tom Cable         5 11 0     0
2020 HOU Bill O'Brien      4 12 0      2021 David Culley      4 13 0     0
2018 CLE Hue Jackson       7  8 1      2019 Freddie Kitchens  6 10 0    -1
2002 JAX Tom Coughlin      6 10 0      2003 Jack Del Rio      5 11 0    -1
2012 CLE Pat Shurmur       5 11 0      2013 Rob Chudzinski    4 12 0    -1
2010 CLE Eric Mangini      5 11 0      2011 Pat Shurmur       4 12 0    -1
2008 LOR Scott Linehan     2 14 0      2009 Steve Spagnuolo   1 15 0    -1
2012 CHI Lovie Smith      10  6 0      2013 Marc Trestman     8  8 0    -2
2019 DAL Jason Garrett     8  8 0      2020 Mike McCarthy     6 10 0    -2
2018 MIA Adam Gase         7  9 0      2019 Brian Flores      5 11 0    -2
2003 CHI Dick Jauron       7  9 0      2004 Lovie Smith       5 11 0    -2
2009 BUF Dick Jauron       6 10 0      2010 Chan Gailey       4 12 0    -2
2017 LAV Jack Del Rio      6 10 0      2018 Jon Gruden        4 12 0    -2
2020 DET Matt Patricia     5 11 0      2021 Dan Campbell      3 13 1    -2
2005 DET Steve Mariucci    5 11 0      2006 Rod Marinelli     3 13 0    -2
2005 LAV Norv Turner       4 12 0      2006 Art Shell         2 14 0    -2
2013 TAM Greg Shiano       4 12 0      2014 Lovie Smith       2 14 0    -2
2015 CLE Mike Pettine      3 13 0      2016 Hue Jackson       1 15 0    -2
2006 LOC M.Schottenheimer 14  2 0      2007 Norv Turner      11  5 0    -3
2002 SAF Steve Mariucci   10  6 0      2003 Dennis Erickson   7  9 0    -3
2005 MIN Mike Tice         9  7 0      2006 Brad Childress    6 10 0    -3
2014 SAF Jim Harbaugh      8  8 0      2015 Jim Tomsula       5 11 0    -3
2010 MIN Brad Childress    6 10 0      2011 Leslie Frazier    3 13 0    -3
2015 SAF Jim Tomsula       5 11 0      2016 Chip Kelly        2 14 0    -3
2011 JAX Jack Del Rio      5 11 0      2012 Mike Mularkey     2 14 0    -3
2011 LAV Hue Jackson       8  8 0      2012 Dennis Allen      4 12 0    -4
2018 CIN Marvin Lewis      6 10 0      2019 Zac Taylor        2 14 0    -4
2011 KAN Todd Haley        7  9 0      2012 Romeo Crennel     2 14 0    -5
2013 TEN Mike Munchak      7  9 0      2014 Ken Whisenhunt    2 14 0    -5
2011 NOS Sean Payton      13  3 0      2012 Aaron Kromer      7  9 0    -6
2008 TAM Jon Gruden        9  7 0      2009 Raheem Morris     3 13 0    -6

And some of you wanted Raheem Morris *thumb_down*

. While some of us wanted that Harbaugh fella *thumb_up*

. And imagine inheriting a 2-14 team and thinking you couldn't do worse, like Steve Spagnuolo in 2009 with the Rams lol. Oh and mid season firings got credited with the full season for this assignment. It's more about the team than the coach.

Apr 20, 2022 15:09:10 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

And for bonus fun: the "pointlessness award" goes to Al Groh's 2000 Jets: started at 0, moved to 0 for a net change of 0. Groh was fired after one year; he never had a chance to Groh on anyone.

Ha! I see what you did there.

Last Edit: Jun 1, 2022 0:23:32 GMT -6 by Reignman

Aug 8, 2024 18:42:12 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

if sitting and watching something versus actually doing it made a person great at it, Reignman would be the next Ron Jeremy.

dauntessmallhands
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[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes Jun 1, 2022 1:04:51 GMT -6 Funkytown likes this

Quote

Post by dauntessmallhands on Jun 1, 2022 1:04:51 GMT -6

not asking anyone to do the research, but just wondering how changing GMs in conjunction with a HC change has impacted these results. Especially in that 7-9 win range. I would imagine it's a ridiculously small sample.

Anyway, I must say I've been more impressed with KOC so far than any HC we've hired since Denny. I'm confident that he's gonna be very good and get as much as he can out of his players and seems to have the technical component down. Coaching has lost some impact in other sports yet in the NFL I don't think it has.

But at the end of the day, you can't make chicken salad out of chicken sh*t. You have to have the players and that's on KAM and to a lesser degree KOC. To me it's maybe 80/20 or 70/30.

So this year is very binary for me. Kind of it works or it doesn't. They went 8-9 with a dysfunctional HC/GM combo. highly dysfunctional. Now that everyone is holding hands and singing Kumbaya then it clearly means they don't have the players to get it done.

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steve: Aaron Jones hurt? Oct 6, 2024 8:29:05 GMT -6

Purple Pain: Pick 6 for Week 6: purplepainforums.com/thread/8045/purple-pains-pick-6-week Oct 8, 2024 10:40:12 GMT -6

andhesloose28: I miss the quick quote button greatly or maybe im getting old and forgot how to do it..

Oct 8, 2024 13:47:40 GMT -6

Reignman: quick quote has been a bit buggy for whatever reason, no idea why, sometimes it works, sometimes not *shrug*

Oct 8, 2024 15:13:38 GMT -6

NoresemanSam: screen refresh on a desktop browser will sometimes wake up quick quote Oct 9, 2024 14:30:03 GMT -6

Reignman: actually I think quick quote is working all the time, except sometimes it's at the first post way up the screen for some reason, if you scroll up fast enough you'll find it xD Oct 13, 2024 18:48:34 GMT -6

Purple Pain: Pick 6 for Week 7: purplepainforums.com/thread/8064/purple-pains-pick-6-week Oct 15, 2024 9:51:37 GMT -6

purplepeopleeaters: Go Vikings beat the lions. Fan since Super Bowl IV, Jan, 1970. Oct 18, 2024 20:26:43 GMT -6

Maestro: Quick Quote should be working again ... code helper Chris over at proboards sent us a solution. *thumb_up*

Oct 21, 2024 3:59:10 GMT -6

Reignman: if you asked me, this Maestro guy isn't getting paid enough *whistle*

... and neither is this Chris guy. Oct 21, 2024 4:14:34 GMT -6

Purple Pain: Purple Pain's Pick 6 for Week 8: purplepainforums.com/thread/8083/purple-pains-pick-6-week Oct 22, 2024 9:46:41 GMT -6

ATXVike: whatever spence says is my prediction...that's the most realistic Oct 24, 2024 12:26:25 GMT -6

genolaweb: How about giving Josh Oliver a shot ay left tackle? Oct 26, 2024 9:17:43 GMT -6

NoresemanSam: Maestro is worth twice what he is getting paid. Oct 27, 2024 19:46:26 GMT -6

NoresemanSam: That was a joke. If I have to tell folks it was a joke, it probably wasn't a very good joke... (roflmao)

Oct 27, 2024 23:39:02 GMT -6

Purple Pain: Purple Pain's Pick 6 for Week 9: purplepainforums.com/thread/8109/purple-pains-pick-6-week Oct 29, 2024 9:33:03 GMT -6

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Purple Pain: Purple Pain's Pick 6 for Week 11: purplepainforums.com/thread/8153/purple-pains-pick-week-11 Nov 12, 2024 8:59:05 GMT -6

vikingsjason1234: Nice post! Nov 14, 2024 15:26:08 GMT -6

Purple Pain: Purple Pain's Pick 6 for Week 12: purplepainforums.com/thread/8166/purple-pains-pick-week-12 Nov 19, 2024 10:21:55 GMT -6

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[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes

[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes

Post by MidwinterViking on Apr 20, 2022 15:09:10 GMT -6

Post by Uncle on Apr 20, 2022 15:53:01 GMT -6

Post by Danchat on Apr 20, 2022 16:03:36 GMT -6

Post by whoskmoon on Apr 20, 2022 16:07:53 GMT -6

Post by PurpleFloyd on Apr 20, 2022 17:18:15 GMT -6

Post by MidwinterViking on Apr 21, 2022 9:43:29 GMT -6

Post by diehardtwinsfan on Apr 21, 2022 11:01:45 GMT -6

Post by vikingpwr on Apr 21, 2022 12:15:27 GMT -6

Post by mngopher35 on Apr 23, 2022 20:00:18 GMT -6

Post by wxman91 on Apr 25, 2022 10:25:12 GMT -6

Post by Funkytown on May 9, 2022 8:45:14 GMT -6

Post by MidwinterViking on May 10, 2022 10:05:35 GMT -6

Post by Funkytown on May 24, 2022 9:38:08 GMT -6

Post by Reignman on Jun 1, 2022 0:20:10 GMT -6

Post by dauntessmallhands on Jun 1, 2022 1:04:51 GMT -6

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