Purple Pain Original Content

The Minnesota Vikings created a Ring of Honor in 1998 to honor franchise legends. Over the past 24 years, 21 players, three coaches, one general manager, and one trainer have been inducted into the prestigious group. At halftime of tomorrow’s game against the Arizona Cardinals, former defensive end Jared Allen will become the 22nd player, seventh defensive lineman, and 27th member of the Vikings Ring of Honor.

The Vikings beat Canton to post-career honors for a player that terrorized quarterbacks during a 13-year career. The best and most important of those 13 years were the six that he played in Minnesota. Allen made the Pro Bowl four times during those six years. It should’ve been all six. He was named All-Pro three times. He was runner-up for the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2011. He should’ve won the award as his 22 sacks topped all of the wonderful things that Terrell Suggs did that year. Allen was fifth in the voting for the award in 2009. His 22 sacks in 2011 were an agonizing half-sack short of the NFL record.

His yearly sack totals for the Vikings

2008: 14.5
2009: 14.5
2010: 11
2011: 22
2012: 12
2013: 11.5

His four career safeties is an NFL record. He’s tied with three players. The Vikings got the better of the 2008 trade with the Kansas City Chiefs that brought Allen to Minnesota. By far.

Allen was a fantastic football player. It was only part of what he was for the Vikings and his community. Tomorrow, he’ll take his much deserved place as one of the best players in Vikings franchise history. His next post-career stop will be Canton.

Minnesota Vikings Ring of Honor

Fran Tarkenton, Quarterback (1998)
Alan Page, Defensive Tackle (1998)
Jim Finks, General Manager (1998)
Bud Grant, Head Coach (1998)
Paul Krause, Safety (1998)
Fred Zamberletti, Athletic Trainer (1998)
Jim Marshall, Defensive End (1999)
Ron Yary, Offensive Tackle (2001)
Korey Stringer, Offensive Tackle (2001)
Mick Tingelhoff, Center (2001)
Carl Eller, Defensive End (2002)
Cris Carter, Wide Receiver (2003)
Bill Brown, Fullback (2004)
Jerry Burns, Offensive Coordinator/Head Coach (2005)
Randall McDaniel, Guard (2006)
Chuck Foreman, Running Back (2007)
John Randle, Defensive Tackle (2008)
Scott Studwell, Linebacker (2009)
Chris Doleman, Defensive End (2011)
Matt Blair, Linebacker (2012)
Joey Browner, Safety (2013)
Randy Moss, Wide Receiver (2017)
Ahmad Rashad, Wide Receiver (2017)
Dennis Green, Head Coach (2018)
Steve Jordan, Tight End (2019)
Kevin Williams, Defensive Tackle (2021)
Jared Allen, Defensive End (2022)

Who’s next?

As soon as the congratulations and acknowledgements fade for an honor like this, the question is always asked. Who’s next? It’s inevitable. Jared Allen’s name hasn’t even been officially dropped inside of US Bank Stadium and I’m asking it here. I’ve thought about this question a time or two, maybe more, since Allen was surprised with the honor during training camp. So, who should be the 28th member of the Vikings Ring of Honor?

Whether it’s the Pro Football Hall of Fame or the Minnesota Vikings Ring of Honor, my first thought for “next” is the player that’s been waiting the longest. In this case, I can’t help but think about Grady Alderman. He’s an original Viking and one of the most underrated players in franchise history. From 1961 to 1973, he was the team’s left tackle. He was very good. At times, he was great. He went to six Pro Bowls and received a few All-Pro nods. From 1969-73, Alderman and Ron Yary formed one of the league’s best tackle duos.

Now, I’m not saying that Grady Alderman should be next. I’m just saying that he deserves serious consideration. The list for “next” is long. Here’s a stab at some of the contenders.

Grady Alderman
Bobby Bryant
Jeff Siemon
Sammy White
Tommy Kramer
Anthony Carter
Carl Lee
Keith Millard
Gary Zimmerman
Henry Thomas
Ed McDaniel
Jake Reed
Todd Steussie
Robert Smith
Robert Griffith
Matt Birk
Daunte Culpepper
Antoine Winfield
Pat Williams
Chad Greenway
Steve Hutchinson
Adrian Peterson

My short(er) list probably looks something like this:

Grady Alderman
Tommy Kramer
Keith Millard
Gary Zimmerman
Antoine Winfield
Steve Hutchinson

If I were to be so bold as to guess the 28th member of the Minnesota Vikings Ring of Honor, that guess would be Steve Hutchinson. I’d like to see Tommy Kramer, Keith Millard, and Antoine Winfield take their much-deserved place in the Ring soon but I think that Hutchinson will be the next pick of those that actually make the pick. The Vikings great guard was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2020. A Ring of Honor induction has often preceded or followed a Canton induction. For that reason, and the fact that he deserves it, Hutchinson is an easy pick for “next.”

What’s up with the Gary Zimmerman-Minnesota Vikings relationship? He was an easy Hall of Famer. He was brilliant for the Vikings. He always seemed to be in complete control of his area of the field. Despite playing his best years and the majority of his career in Minnesota, it’s always felt like he’s more aligned with the Denver Broncos. A bitter contract dispute led to the trade that sent Zimmerman to Denver. I’m guessing that some bitterness remains. It’s the only thing that explains his Ring of Honor absence. He’s one of the best players in Vikings franchise history.

For now, and until the 28th member of the Minnesota Vikings Ring of Honor is announced, congratulations Jared Allen on a much-deserved honor.

The Minnesota Vikings created a Ring of Honor in 1998 to honor franchise legends. Over the past 24 years, 21 players, three coaches, one general manager, and one trainer have been inducted into the

Off to a roaring 5-1 start, the Vikings face two below .500 teams before facing the mighty Bills. Will they continue their streak of sloppily taking out the trash, or is this a trap week? Or finally a blowout week?




Injury Report

Vikings
DE Bullard - Questionable


Cardinals
RB Connor - Out
LG Garcia - Out
C Hudson - Out
CB Matthew - Out
LT Humphries - Questionable
CB Murphy - Questionable
K Prater - Questionable
RB Williams - Questionable

Line: Vikings -3.5 (75% of bets on Cardinals)
Super Sim Calculated Line: Vikings -4


*My Thoughts*

The Cardinals have had a rough season so far, and the offense is not where it should be with the amount of money and years Arizona has handed out to Kingsbury and Murray. Most games they are a complete no-show in the first half, and have to rally in the second half just to put points on the board. Murray simply hasn't been the same player that he was in the first half of 2021, as his accuracy has dropped off and teams have been cracking down on his scrambling. Still, with the way our defense is giving up yards, the Cardinals will have plenty of chances to score points. It'll mostly be through the air, as their running game has been rough outside of QB runs. Conner is out and Williams likely won't play, but Eno Benjamin, a 2020 7th rounder, has shown some burst as he's averaging 4.6 yards per carry.

The main problem has been a bad offensive line, and I can't quite remember the last time I saw a unit with one above average player, and all below average and abysmal players. DJ Humphries is a solid blindside blocker who has been elite this year as a pass blocker. Beachum is a middling RT who is usually better in the run department. The main problem has been the interior, which has been ravaged by injuries, but it was poorly constructed in the first place. They acquired two 2nd round busts that Vikings fans should be familiar with - Cody Ford and Will Hernandez. Both appear to be in line to start, but they are both bad run blockers, while Hernandez is servicable against the pass while Ford is horrid. Hudson wasn't playing well before getting hurt, and they brought in a 1st round bust to fill that spot in Billy Price. He rebounded with the Giants last year after being unplayable with the Bengals, but he's still not good. Their interior is literally is reunion of IOL prospects we scouted, except they all stink!

At receiver, the Cardinals looked to have a lethal duo with Hopkins and Hollywood Brown, but the later suffered a foot injury and won't be back til late December. Hopkins looked great last week and will be a problem for whichever CB he goes up against, and he could play in the slot. I'd try to get Peterson on him, but the Vikings usually keep their CBs on one side. Rondale Moore is a speedy athlete, but he's been ineffective at anything other than flat and screen passes. He did have a career game against us last year. Robbie Anderson is a wildcard, he has the ability to be a quality deep receiver but has problems with drops - he had a 4 drop game against us last year! Zach Ertz isn't what he used to be, but he's not bad and could have a big day against our LBs in coverage. I wonder if 2nd rounder McBride might start to get more usage.

On defense, the Cardinals are 27th in points allowed and are filled with average players. Their run defense has been clutch, and this year it's been lead by fourth year breakout Zach Allen, whom after three disappointing seasons is dominating. PFF still likes Watt, but he's not close to what he was in his prime, though he is still a great run defender. The others on the DL are not notable, and mostly stuff the run over bringing an interior rush. Arizona's pass rush has been feeble this year, with Watt leading with 2.5 sacks. They miss Chandler Jones (though he's not doing much for the Raiders), as Markus Golden is a nice player but not good enough to be a #1 pass rusher. Zaven Collins has split some time at edge rusher (a la what we dreamed Anthony Barr could be) and has been fine, with 2 sacks and 8 pressures. The depth consisting of Dimukeje and Gardeck (who has played well in a small sample size) is not going to get it done against the big boys. Isaiah Simmons has been an average LB, but nothing close to what he was hyped up as a prospect coming out of Clemson.

The CB group is incredibly vulnerable, while the safeties are very solid. Byron Murphy is a solid starting CB in a zone scheme, but doesn't have the speed to go up against most receivers 1-on-1. Meanwhile, Marco Wilson has been getting shredded in coverage, but they have no depth behind him. Hamilton is a career backup who is getting his first extended chance (in his 7th year!) and has held his own reasonably well, but with CB being a problem for years, they've simply continued to neglect it. They do have a special player in Budda Baker, of whom I think PFF undersells. He's a Harrison Smith type who can be a force in the box and blitz a bit, but can cover deep downfield if need be. Jalen Thompson is highly underrated, as a solid coverage safety and an elite tackler.

Prediction: Vikings 31, Cardinals 26

It is about time the Vikings put 30+ up on a team, and the Cardinals are a prime candidate. However, I think their offense clicks against our defense and mounts a second half comeback that falls short. When push comes to shove, the Vikings should win this one in the trenches with the weaknesses on their OL and their inability to rush the passer. Arizona will need to blitz, thus allowing our receivers to get open, while the Vikings should be able to get to Murray with their front four. I fully expect a 3 to 7 point victory with the way the Cardinals play in the second half of games.

Any thoughts?Off to a roaring 5-1 start, the Vikings face two below .500 teams before facing the mighty Bills. Will they continue their streak of sloppily taking out the trash, or is this a trap week? Or finally

The Vikings have to take this game seriously because Kyler Murray is definitely going to thumb through the game plan after one last round of Call of Duty ... maybe two... three at most.



The Cardinals have an interesting split that I have to start with:
Record when getting two or more interceptions: 2-0
Record when getting zero interceptions: 1-4 (The one win was an overtime victory over the 2-4 Raiders when the Cardinals returned a fumble for a touchdown in overtime, so not a convincing win)
Games with exactly one interception: 0

The first question is: how did the Cardinals get these interceptions, and how do the Vikings avoid them? I looked at all five of the Cardinals' interceptions to see if there was a defensive trend.

Interception 1 – This is a deep throw to D.J. Moore. Baker Mayfield’s pass was way behind Moore, who tipped it to a lurking safety. The announcer said, “He had him [open for the completion]!” but this looks like pretty good defense to me. The interception was lucky off a tip, but this was a small window on a deep out. Some credit to the defense for making a small window, but the interception was lucky.



Interception 2 – Here you can see Mayfield doing one of the worst things a quarterback can do: Being 6-foot-1. The throw was open but never got there.




Interception 3 – Andy Dalton thinks this is “open.” You can form your own opinion. If you’re having trouble reading the number on that receiver, that’s intended for Marquez Callaway.



With two guys around Callaway, you might wonder if there was a better option for Dalton or if this was the best there was amid smothering defense, there was a better option.



Interception 4 – Here Callaway is back deciding if he should catch the ball or tip it to a Cardinals defender; he chose the latter.



Interception 5 – Pressure forces bad decisions. Dalton tries to hit Olave on a cross but leaves the pass woefully short, leading to a pick 6. Juwan Johnson and Alvin Kamara were both open.



My conclusion on Arizona's interceptions is that the Cardinals are doing what the Vikings do and taking away deep passes first. Numbers one, three, and five are all deep shots that go wrong with better, open options shorter. The second and fourth examples are just tipped balls. There isn't any magic or scheme here, the Cardinals just benefitted from a few egregiously bad throws and tipped balls. The good news is the Vikings haven’t been falling into the trap of forcing deep balls. This is good news, but it’s just O'Connell running his normal offense. That means that the key to beating Arizona looks like it will be on the Cardinals' offense vs. Vikings' defense because a key to the game has to be something interesting or unique.


Cardinals Passing Game Breakdown
I pointed this out with Jalen Hurts: “running” QBs are passers first and runners second. Stopping a mobile quarterback will almost always come down to shutting down their ability to throw the ball. Want proof? Here is Murray’s passer rating and rush yards per attempt in 2021 and 2022:


Stopping Murray’s passing will be the key. More good news, the Cardinals are already slowing themselves down. When I looked into the Cardinals and Murray’s history, I was shocked at how much of a drop off there has been in explosiveness. Here are Murray’s Passing yards per completion and Air Yards Per completion:

2019: 6.9 (Yards per Attempt ) / 5.4 (Air Yards per Completion)
2020: 7.1 / 5.9
2021: 7.9 / 6.0
2022: 5.9 / 4.3 (Second lowest in the league, ahead of only the Packers)

Knowing that Murray can scramble to set up a pass, the next thing I started to dig into seeing if there are tricks or trends to his mobility. One of the great oversimplifications in football is “He’s a running QB,” as if QBs can be boiled down to a box score or Madden speed rating. The reality is that QB runs, especially scrambles, are high-pressure plays where individual human quirks can be found.

So where does Kyler Murray run? I started with nextgenstats.nfl.com/ looking for something like this (but for Murray).



Turns out that AWS doesn’t track runs for QBs. So next gen stats can tell me who can run 19.73 mph and when I might need more cat food, but not which direction Kyler Murray runs. I’ll do this the hard way. Step 1: Find which games are interesting by looking at his rush totals:



I chose Carolina because they held him to a really low yards per carry. Seattle because they didn’t, and Philadelphia as a confirmation to Seattle.

Now I have to warn you, prepare yourself for a picture that is much uglier than AWS, but maybe, more interesting. I watched those three games and estimated Murray’s runs.
Light Blue vs. Carolina
Black vs. Eagles
Puke vs. Seahawks
Gray: called back due to penalty
Red: Touchdown



This was way more useful than a chart because, while watching, I realized three things that are critical for the Vikings to stop Murray:

1) Murray almost always scrambles to his right. The only times he runs left is if he has no other choice. Additionally, Murray has taken sacks looking to run right before realizing his only out is left.
2) Murray scrambles around the outside. He rarely scrambles up the middle.
3) Designed runs for Murray almost always go up the middle. On that chart, the lines that start going straight upfield are almost exclusively called QB runs.

It turns out the Seahawks and Eagles were both victims of that third trend. They both allowed draw plays to beat them up the middle. This is a very different challenge to stop than week 2 vs the Eagles when Jalen Hurts ran almost exclusively outside. If you take nothing else away from this article, you can be confident that Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray are, in fact, different people.

With the Cardinals’ passing game is significantly less explosive this year than in prior years. Their run game isn’t different enough to make me think of that as a differentiator. If the Vikings can force a few negative plays, the Cardinals' offense will be hard-pressed to dig out of a hole. Even with Marquise Brown out, Rondale more is a capable enough running mate to Deandre Hopkins. Patrick Peterson did a great job on Hopkins in 2021, so I think this is a plus matchup for the Vikings. The key will be to prevent Murray from buying time to hit big plays.

How to Beat the Cardinals
I’m going to trust that the offense can do their jobs. The Cardinals are 27th in both yards and points allowed, and from what I saw, their generation of turnovers was as much opponents shooting themselves in the foot as it was good defense.

The key to the game will be to stop Murray from making explosive plays with his legs. There is where his running tendency can be exploited in two ways:

1) Be prepared for designed, up-the-middle runs – these will probably happen anyway just by the nature of Murray, a few won’t lose the game.
2) Focus pressure on getting rushers from the defensive left side (Murray’s right side) the Vikings can make him uncomfortable and give extra breathing room to the coverage team or force Murray to run to his left where he is less comfortable. If Minnesota can do this, Arizona's passing game should flounder, and the Vikings' offense should easily outpace the Cardinals' defense.

The Vikings have to take this game seriously because Kyler Murray is definitely going to thumb through the game plan after one last round of Call of Duty ... maybe two... three at most.

Welcome back to my comprehensive Ranking of All Backup QBs in the NFL. This is my fifth year compiling and ranking every single backup QB, including 2 injured backups for a total of 34. I will have a spreadsheet displaying the stats of these QBs below the rankings, along with a list of all of the 3rd / 4th string QBs, practice squad QBs, and even free agent QBs. Without further ado, let’s go!

Note: The “Rating” is an arbitrary number based upon the QB’s past play and/or prospect status. It will give you an idea of how well the QB would play if they ever got a chance to. For reference:

80+ Starting QB / Great Backup
79-78 Good Backup
77-76 Decent Backup
75-74 Mediocre Backup
73-72 Bad Backup
71- Practice Squad caliber




#1: SF Jimmy Garoppolo

There shouldn't be any debate here, Jimmy G is easily the best backup QB as his play as a starting QB the past several years has been acceptable at worst. It's possible he gets his job back from Lance midway through the year, but I do not expect to see him on this list next year - this is the same league where Marcus Mariota, Davis Mills, and Geno Smith are starting at QB.


#2: PHI Gardner Minshew

I'm also of the belief that Minshew deserves another chance as an NFL starter. Over his two year stretch in Jacksonville, he posted great numbers for a 6th rounder and the team went 7-13 when he started, compared to 0-12 when he didn't. While he has deficiencies as a passer (lacking arm strength and holding onto the ball too long), he is one of the best backups at moving the ball down the field and usually gives his team a chance to win. I could see him as a low-end starter as a system QB in the future.


#3: MIA Teddy Bridgewater

While our boy Teddy flunked out of another starting job, his numbers weren't half bad (7-7 record, 7.2 Y/A, low turnover rate). Teddy is an ideal backup with a 5-0 stretch with the Saints under his belt. His ceiling is low and he's not going to win a shootout for you, but his floor is high and this is the type of QB you want if your starter misses a few games or a few drives.


#4: PIT Kenny Pickett

I always put the rookies high on this list, as they have so much upside. For example, I placed Justin Herbert at #9 in the 2020 rankings, and it turns out he should have been the unquestioned #1. I was not overly positive or negative about Pickett during the draft process, but I think he can be an accurate QB with some level of playmaking ability. It shouldn't shock anyone if he usurps Trubisky sooner than later.


#5: TEN Malik Willis

Yes, Willis is as raw as it gets as he basically played backyard football for Liberty. But his scrambling ability is lethal enough that I could see him steal a game or two that other backups wouldn't, and while his accuracy and vision are big concerns, he has a mortar for an arm and could connect on some deep throws. I don't see him passing up Tannehill in 2022 because he's simply not ready yet.


#6: BUF Case Keenum

Keenum received 2 starts with Mayfield ailing at times, and he looked fine, and it was nothing to write home about. For some reason, they opted to ship Keenum off for a 7th round pick to Buffalo and stuck with Brissett instead. Case had a bumpy preseason, but with the tools he'd have at his disposal if Allen went down, I could see Case channel some 2017 magic throwing to Diggs and the other weapons Buffalo has.


#7: WAS Taylor Heinicke

We didn't expect Fitzpatrick to only start one game for the Football Team, and Heinicke got a full season as a starting QB. It ended up as a mixed bag more on the negative side, but his overall numbers were not terrible for a backup QB starting 15 games. He still qualifies as a strong backup, but the Commies did add Sam Howell at QB, who is way better than your average 5th round QB prospect.


#8: ARI Colt McCoy

There is a noticeable drop in talent here - there is a smaller number of QB prospects as backups as there used to be - but McCoy showed last year that he can hold up. He turned in great games against the 49ers and Seahawks, while having a clunker against the Panthers. Despite being 35 last year, he showed some mobility in the pocket and was able to command the offense well. He should still have a few more years left as a backup QB (and career earnings of $25M!).


#9: ATL Desmond Ridder

Despite Ridder going higher in the draft than Willis, I am not impressed with him as a prospect. He has very questionable accuracy at all levels and misses routine throws more often than he should. He is a plus scrambler, but I don't think it's a great enough strength to bouy him higher on this list. In the end, he profiles as a poor man's Marcus Mariota, who himself has topped out as a good backup/poor starter.


#10: NYG Tyrod Taylor

It has been awhile since he's been on this list, but welcome back Tyrod! Injuries plagued him as a starter on the Chargers and Texans, but the real story is that he was considerably worse than Davis Mills as the Texans' starter. While in past years he would be considered a top 5 backup, he's now on the same level of backups #10-16. His extensive experience improves his ranking.


#11: NO Andy Dalton

Just like Taylor, Dalton is another former starter who would usually rank higher, but poor play in 2021 reduces his ranking. Dalton used to be the model of consistency as an average QB, but he hasn't lived up to that as a backup. Perhaps the Saints will get more out of him if Winston gets hurt.


#12: BAL Tyler Huntley

Huntley got the first 4 starts of his career last year and despite the ugly passing numbers, I think there is some upside here. He's a great mirror to Jackson as he graded out as a borderline-elite scrambler and PFF's passing stats have him as a semi-accurate short and intermediate passer. If he gets more chances in 2022, I think we will see an improvement on his 2021 numbers.


#13: IND Nick Foles

You know the story on Foles, and he's a hard guy to pin down. Last year he spent the season collecting way too much money as a #3 QB, and he's already flunked out of Rams, Jaguars, and Bears starting QB jobs. The Super Bowl run with the Eagles is the outlier - it seems to me that Foles needs everything around him to be absolutely perfect. I don't think the Colts can provide that, and while the idea that reuniting with Frank Reich could help, well, it sure didn't help with Carson Wentz!


#14: SEA Drew Lock

Lock was a footnote in the Russell Wilson trade, and inexplicably lost the starting QB battle to Geno Smith. Perhaps that wasn't a shocking defeat, as Lock underwhelmed time after time in Denver, showing poor accuracy, pocket awareness, and turning the ball over too much. He has shown enough to be at best an average backup QB and does have a little upside as a 25 year old, but you should expect Carroll to stick with Geno.


#15: KC Chad Henne

Henne got bumped up after he made some clutch throws in a 2020 playoff game, and I have nothing to add after the 2021 season. He still has a strong arm, but I do wonder how well he’d hold up through a full game.


#16: GB Jordan Love

Love got his first chance in 2021 and choked away an incredibly winnable game against the Chiefs (losing 7 to 13). Still, he had a solid preseason and came into the NFL super raw. There is room for him to jump into the top 10, but if the Packers were really confident in him they wouldn't have backed up the Brinks truck for Rodgers.


#17: LAR John Wolford

The former AAF QB got a chance to play has a playoff win to his name… despite getting injured and watching Goff win said game. He's still a major question mark, but I prefer him to many of the veteran retread options out there.


#18: LAC Chase Daniel

This is your annual Chase Daniel career earnings report: $33M! Still going at age 36, Daniel has fended off Easton Stick to retain his backup role for the Chargers. Having only started 5 games (and only 3 since 2015) over his entire 12 year career, we don't exactly know what a full season of play from would look like, but I imagine he'd be mediocre at best.


#19: NYJ Joe Flacco

For now, Flacco is the Jets' starter, but he is their backup once Zach Wilson returns. Joe doesn't have a whole lot left in the tank as he no longer has the zip on some throws like he used to, and probably should be considering retirement soon at age 37. He's a passable option who won't turn over the ball much.


#20: CAR Sam Darnold

Are you surprised to see him this far down the list? Darnold may have been a third overall pick and is still only 25 years old, but his terrible play cannot be overshadowed. Yes, he was stuck playing in below average offensive systems, but that doesn't explain how his play fell off a cliff in Year 3. Career passing % of 59.8%, Y/A of 6.1 the past two seasons... that's poor even for backup QBs. He is a shifty runner (5 TDs last year) and maaaaybe he turns things around in a better offense, but that's simply wishful thinking at this point.


#21: MIN Nick Mullens

Fallen from his #6 spot in 2020 on this list, Mullens lost to CJ Beathard in San Fran, failed to pass up Keenum in Cleveland, and then lost to Jarrett Stidham in Vegas. Thankfully for him, the Vikings' backup spot was wide open thanks to the incompetence of Mond and Mannion. Mullens has the ability to spark an offense and move the ball down the field, but too often he throws danger to the wind and throws some truly horrific interceptions. He's also somewhat mobile and has a low career sack rate. I could see him rehabbing his value and rising up on this list.


#22: HOU Kyle Allen

Allen had an uneventful 2021, as a backup to Heinicke in Washington. Similar to Mr. Heineken, Allen got a full audition in Carolina back in 2019 and wasn't completely terrible, but it was still rough. His numbers improved when he got a four game stretch in 2020, but he still falls firmly into the mediocre category.


#23: NE Brian Hoyer

Belichick has kept Hoyer around for another year. His last couple times out he looked completely cooked, and his likely replacement was drafted in the 4th round (Bailey Zappe). This may be it for the 37 year old.


#24: JAX CJ Beathard

Beathard retained his backup QB job, as the Jaguars couldn't wait to ship off Minshew for a late round pick and he faced no competition this season. Already 29 despite being in his 5th year of football, Beathard had a two game stretch in 2020 where he played well, but the rest of his career was not backup caliber.


#25: LVR Jarrett Stidham

Having failed multiple times to win the Patriots' backup QB job, Stidham spent 2021 on the IR and was traded to the Raiders for a late round pick. After a strong preseason, Stidham won the job (probably helps that McDaniels is the HC), but the tape on him shows that he's unfieldable - and it's not like he was all that good a prospect at Auburn. Maybe this is the year he proves me wrong.


#26: DAL Cooper Rush

We're reaching the bottom of the barrel here. Rush didn't crack the 53 man roster, but was still the backup on the practice squad. He finally got to start a game against the Vikings and was able to conduct a 4th quarter comeback, and despite his glaring flaws, he was at least able to get the ball out to his playmakers. But now that Prescott is slated to miss several weeks, he's probably screwed. Fielding a bad backup QB is simply a Cowboys tradition at this point.


#27: NYJ Mike White

I'm including White since he's the backup while Flacco starts. White's claim to fame (probably for the rest of his life) is upsetting the Bengals while putting up a 405/3/2 line while completing 37 of 45 passes. The rest of his games were complete trainwrecks, resulting in 8 picks in 3.5 starts. White has some playmaking ability, but it's mostly undone by how reckless and mistake-prone he gets, and he's not a factor as a runner. He is an above average practice squad QB, I'll give him that.


#28: CHI Trevor Siemian

After he was nearly flushed out of the league after a stint with the Jets, Siemian notched 4 starts with the Saints last year and lost them all, but did throw 11 TDs. That is misleading as the offense went into a standstill after a decent couple of starts, and he was promptly benched for Taysom Hill. If Siemian were to start for the Bears, their offense would be quite possibly the worst unit to start a game in the modern era, at least on paper.


#29: CIN Brandon Allen

Allen has fallen down the rankings because of more 'decent' options out there rather than his own failures. The Bengals trust him and it's now his 3rd year as their backup QB, but he's been bad whenever he's been given a chance, suffering from poor accuracy and an inability to push the ball down the field.


#30: DEN Brett Rypien

After being billed as a draftable prospect in 2019, Rypien went undrafted and it took him until his 4th year as a Bronco to win the backup job from Josh Johnson. He had one start in 2020 and won it, but tossed four picks and I haven't been impressed with his preseason play. While I was slightly high on him coming out of college, I don't think Rypien has much upside.


#31: DET Nate Sudfeld

The Lions usually skimp on their backup QB position, and they nabbed Sudfeld after Tim Boyle and David Blough reminded us that they are not NFL-caliber QBs. Sudfeld has never shown anything to suggest he would be a quality backup, as he never fully seized the Eagles' backup QB in his four years there. He's a practice squad arm at best.


#32: CLE Joshua Dobbs

Dobbs is the biggest unknown on this list. A 4th round pick by the Steelers, he's spent most of his career as a 3rd stringer, with a stint with the Jaguars, backing up Minshew for a time. He didn't show much during the preseason, and the way he has bounced around implies that NFL teams lack confidence in his ability as a backup.


#33: TB Blaine Gabbert

What is the difference between him and a guy like Chad Henne, you ask? Both may be former busts turned backups, but whenever I tune in to watch Gabbert play in the preseason, I don't see any upside to his play (whereas Henne and others look OK at best). He's no longer a quicker runner, he's always been inaccurate, and he has a penchant for turnovers. He's a classic "coach's pet" who isn't actually good at football, but is an asset to the coaching staff and his fellow QBs (yes, Vikings fans, he's Sean Mannion). It's an embarrassment that 2021 2nd rounder Kyle Trask can't unseat him by this point - more to the player, but also for the team.


#34: CAR P. J. Walker

Darnold is on the IR so Walker, who looked to be their 4th string QB, is the backup. PJ dominated in the now-defunct AAF, but has looked like a deer in the headlights in the NFL, tossing 8 picks (plus 4 fumbles) on just 122 passing attempts. He looks like a random athlete thinking he can translate his Madden skills to the actual football field - that works against backups, but not NFL starters. I think he can be better than this, but his play was so abysmal that the Panthers preferred a barely functioning Darnold and a 101% cooked Cam Newton over him.




Last year we had 7 QBs on this list who had seen game action at one point, now that list is down to one. Teams are only keeping young and inexperienced 3rd string QBs these days.



Practice squads have more experienced QBs on them, as any QB prospect that has any shred of future potential will likely be claimed.



As expected, there is a total lack of talent on the free agent market. 


That's it for this year's addition of the Backup QBs article you didn't ask for! Let me know what you think.Welcome back to my comprehensive Ranking of All Backup QBs in the NFL. This is my fifth year compiling and ranking every single backup QB, including 2 injured backups for a total of 34. I will have a

With no Game to preview this week, I took a look backwards at how the Vikings are stacking up against my pre-season look at How the Vikings can be Super Bowl contenders in 2022.

To start with, this a quick refresh on that, a team’s scoring advantage is:
[Scoring more points than average] + [Allowing few points than league average]

The starting point was the 2021 Vikings, the 2021 Vikings score more than average, but also allowed more than average for a net score of almost exactly 0.

2021 Vikings
Advantage from offense: +2.02
Advantage from defense: -2.08
Total disadvantage: -0.06 (0.00 would be perfectly average)

To be a contender, I suggested the Vikings would need to improve to a +6 total.

Vikings Right Now:
NFL Scoring Average is 21.8 Pointer per Game
Vikings are scoring 23.2 Pointer per Game = 1.4 PPG better than average
Vikings are allowed 19.7 Points per Game = 2.1 PPG better than average

Right now the Vikings are at +3.5, improved, but a little below the goal of 6.0.

Why I’m Not Worried
There are several major reason to take this 3.5 number with a large grain of salt.

#1 – Wins. The PPG Advantage is only an analysis of how things might go in the future. Having actual wins is always preferable theoretical future projections. If you look at the Vikings +3.5 and think “Oh no, that number isn’t high enough”, you’re using this information wrong.

#2 – Small Sample Set. With only 6 games played, a single touchdown swings a team’s total number by more than a full point. At this point in the season the Vikings have had enough near misses that, if made, would put them well above the +6 threshold (more on this in the offensive breakdown).

#3 - Coaching Change impact.  There is a wide rang of outcomes when a coach changes.  I don't know how the season will end, but enough football has been played to rule out the highly negative changes.  

Defensive Performance
The Vikings defense has improved from -2 to +2.1 from 2021 to 2022. At the start of the season, if you told me the Vikings would get more than a +4 PPG swing in advantage from their defense, I would have said they are defiantly on track to set themselves up well for the post season and sure enough, at 5-1, they are. The big question about defense becomes, is this sustainable? There is an argument for and against this being sustainable.

The argument for this being sustainable is that there was a highly predicable improvement, and the change is happening exactly as predicted. Looking at the change in defensive performance in the last two minutes of halves:

After being historically bad, some regression towards the mean is almost certain in this category. I think realistic is on the low-to-middle range of this scale, but two-minute drills can be fluky.
Improved late-half scoring defense: +2.5 to 6.0 PPG.

The Vikings defensive performance is right in the middle of the zone for “most likely” improvement. Some of this is likely attributed to Za’Darius Smith playing well.

The argument against the defense sustaining this improvement is that the Vikings are allowing a lot fewer points than expected for the yardage they have given up.



Historically there is a strong correlation between yards and points, so there is risk for regression on defensive points allowed. The Vikings top 5 position in turnovers is helping and the Vikings did give up some garbage time yards, but over the course of a full season, the points / yards gap will likely tighten up. Daniele Hunter getting on track or tightening up safeties would help.


Offensive Performance
The offense is the reason I see upside for the Vikings as the season progresses. There are three reasons for this.

First reason the Vikings offense has left enough plays on the table that they could already be above the +6.0 PPG threshold.  For example, week 2 vs the Eagles when Irv Smith Jr drops this near certain touchdown:



On this play, did play design work? Yes
Did the Vikings players all the physical tools and talent to make this play? Yes
The Eagles won by 17, would a 7 point swing change their record? No, the Vikings would still probably have lost.

But if Irv hangs on, the calculation says the Vikings are +4.7 instead of +3.5. Justin Jefferson missed a route later in the game that was another potential touchdown turned into an interception. Greg Joseph’s Field Goal and Extra Point misses have cost the Vikings 2.2 PPG; he’s not going to hit everything, but there is upside in the kicking game.  

The second reason is potential improvement in the offense. The Vikings aren’t doing a great job sending receivers deep to clear out space for mid-range throws. Here is an example of what it looks like when it works, this was a big gain to Jefferson in the Dolphins game.



Osborn deep clears out a huge space for Jefferson to operate. At the same time, Thielen deep had Irv Smith Jr open for a first down on the other side of the field. The Vikings were great at this in 2021. The Rams were also great at this in 2021 (Van Jefferson and Odel Beckham opened huge spaces for Cooper Kupp). As I’ve looked back at the start of 2022, I just haven’t seen much of this for the Vikings. Instead they have been sending Jefferson deep into double coverage instead of opening space for him.  They have also used tight ends (both Smith and Mundt) deep and that hasn't drawn the coverage away from the receivers.  It seems like only a matter of time before the Vikings start sending Osborn, Thielen, or Reagor deep to make more space for Jefferson to work.

The third reason isn't math or play analysis, it's the fact that the overall offense seems to be underperforming.  The Vikings offense is slightly worse in 2022 (+1.4) than 2021 (+2.1).  This is despite the offensive line is playing better.  Everything is there to suggest that this team has untapped ability to put more points on the board.  

2022 Path Forward
The Vikings are improved over 2021. Their record sets them up well for the next 11 games. There is some risk of regression (especially on defense), I think the potential upside for improvement is larger than the risk of fall off.
With no Game to preview this week, I took a look backwards at how the Vikings are stacking up against my pre-season look at

In the history of the bye weeks, never has there been a more embarrassing loss than the one the Vikings handed to themselves in 2005. It was a week that sealed the fate of a head coach, cemented Daunte Culpepper and Fred Smoot’s legacy as punchlines, and would change the meaning of the term “love boat” forever. So it is only fitting that in this bye week iteration of comparing statistics, that we look at the Vikings’ greatest opponent: Themselves.




Over the past decade this team has started out fast before. Sometimes with good results like in 2017 where the team started out 4-2 and went on to lose in the NFCCG despite losing its starting QB for the second straight season. Other times things went south quickly after a quick start, like in 2016 when the Vikings started out 5-1, and after suffering an embarrassing loss to the Eagles, went on to suck hard for the rest of the season. One team improved on their early success, the other collapsed, and while the Vikings might hope they are the former, do the numbers actually point to them being closer to the latter?







First up, let’s compare these three teams DVOA rankings as well as their opponents in those first 6 weeks.




2016








I was very surprised at just how good that Vikings’ team was in 2016, particularly their defense. It was elite through the first third of the season and while a lot of that is because of a weak schedule (they played mostly bad offenses), it is still pretty impressive. Their opponents overall were very average on average making the 5-1 start compared to what happened the rest of the season very surprising.







2017












The 2017 team started out with a more difficult schedule and still managed to go 4-2 despite huge season ending injuries to their starting QB and star rookie RB. They did get blown out by second best team they faced during that period after a strong first game against the best, but they only faced one truly bad team in that stretch and still managed to go 4-2 and play better than all but seven other teams through six games.




2022




The 2022 iteration of a Vikings team off to a hot start is by far the worst of the three despite having the easiest schedule. They have faced one defense that has been above average or better and only one team overall that would be considered above average according to DVOA. There is some good news here though. First, this team is not like the 2016 team that collapsed after 5-0 start and began to play terrible for the final eleven weeks of the season after teams either figured out the simple offense the Vikings were running for Bradford, injuries caught up with the team or both. It is playing poorly to start the season and still winning, and even if the teams they are beating suck, they are still NFL teams. They have the opportunity to start playing better and have a lot of room to grow, which would give them a shot to beat good teams. Second, the final eleven weeks are looking to be almost as easy as the first six. The Vikings play some good teams that I expect them to lose too based on how they have played the only good team they have faced, but most of the teams they play are bad. Looking at that 2016 schedule after the Viking went 5-1 that was not the case:












There were some bad teams left on that 2016 schedule, but most were at least average and the Vikings lost to every one of those above average teams, along with the Lions who had the Vikings number that year. That shouldn’t happen in 2022 where only four teams are average or better and they face the 31st, 30th, 29th, 27th and 25th best teams.







Other numbers to consider are the scoring margin between those three seasons:







2016 (first six games)



7.5 (winning by an average of 11.2 points)







2017 (first six games)



3.2 (winning by an average of 10.75 points)







2022



3.5 (winning by an average of 7.6)







The 2022 Vikings have a higher scoring margin than the 2017 team which is good, a much lower scoring margin than 2016 team, which might also be good since that team collapsed.







There are other factors to a team collapsing or building on early season success of course. The Vikings have a brand new head coach and are running new systems on both offense and defense and while they could start to play better in those systems, like the Vikings and their brand new QB started to do in 2017, they could collapse once another team shows the league how to defend what they are doing like happened with the brand new QB in 2016. With all three of these years the Vikings were adapting to changes on the fly and while one of those teams went in a very positive direction, the other completely collapsed once there was enough film on what they were doing. Injuries also play a factor and did more so in 2016 than a relatively healthy 2017 (after they lost their starting QB and RB that is). This 2022 team has been incredibly healthy, more healthy than either the 2016 or 2017 Vikings’ teams.







Looking at the numbers this Vikings team is not really like either 2016 or 2017 and is arguably much worse than both of them. They are winning, but they are doing it while not playing well against bad teams while the 2016 and 2017 teams won playing really well against better competition. That didn’t work out for the 2016 hot start Vikings’, but it certainly worked out better than expected for the 2017 team. Lets hope the Vikings improve on things over this bye week, stay off the lake and come out read hot against an improving Cardinals team.







In the history of the bye weeks, never has there been a more embarrassing loss than the one the Vikings handed to themselves in 2005. It was a week that sealed the fate of a head coach, cemented

As my interest in football, and its history, has grown over the years, I've found many fascinating little nuggets. Some of the most fascinating involve the paths franchises have taken to form the league we know today. The paths taken by the Philadelphia Eagles and Pittsburgh Steelers may be the most fascinating of all.

The Steelers, called the Pirates initially, and the Eagles started innocently enough in 1933. That innocence would be shattered 8 years later. During the first two decades of the NFL's existence, all teams struggled. All teams carried financial concerns. Most teams had performance concerns. The Eagles and the Steelers/Pirates had both. With their decades-long recent success, it may be difficult to ever think of the Steelers as a struggling team. The team’s first 40 years were pretty much the exact opposite of the last 50. Pirates owner, Art Rooney, had reportedly lost as much as $150,000 over the first 8 years. That’s pocket change for today’s owners. It wasn’t in the 1930s. Perhaps the name was the problem. To hopefully inspire a public connection to the team, Rooney changed his team's name to the Steelers in 1940. The Eagles weren't doing much better as the '40s opened. deBenneville (let's call him Bert) Bell was a rich kid with a passion for football. In owning the Eagles, he satisfied his passion for football at the expense of his father's money. Bert Bell was to become such an important figure in the league's history that it's a bit surprising how close he was to losing it all. Even in those tough, naive, early days, Bell made an impact on the league as the annual player selection draft was his idea.

As Bell and Rooney were facing difficult choices, Alexis Thompson wanted a piece of the football game. Thompson, ironically, was the heir to the Republic Steel Corporation fortune. Preferring Philadelphia to Pittsburgh, Thompson first tried to buy the Eagles. Bell passed. So, Thompson tried the Steelers. Rooney was reluctant. Somewhere, somehow, Bell got the idea of Rooney selling the Steelers and then using that money to buy a half-ownership of the Eagles. According to Rooney, "Bell did all the dickering." Thompson bought the Steelers for about $160,000. Rooney then bought a 50% share of the Eagles for $80,000. Everything seemed fine. However, four months later, Thompson had not opened offices in Pittsburgh. It didn't seem that Thompson cared much for doing business in Pittsburgh. Fearful of his hometown losing it’s football team, Rooney proposed what his son, Dan, referred to as a "switcheroo." Rooney/Bell would trade the Eagles to Thompson for the Steelers. It was more a switch of cities than teams. No cash or other considerations were involved. Thompson clearly preferred Philadelphia over Pittsburgh. Rooney and Bell actually picked their "favorite" players from the two teams to form the new Steelers team. Roughly half of each team switched to the other. Both reconfigured teams struggled in their first season, 1941, with the Steelers finishing 1-9-1 and the Eagles finishing 2-8-1. The Eagles won and tied in the match-ups of the two teams. The Steelers managed the first winning season in franchise history the following year as they finished with a 7-4 record in 1942. The Eagles stumbled to a 2-9 record. WWII jumbled the rosters and the league. The financial and player demands of the War years forced the Eagles and Steelers to join forces and form one team in 1943, the Philadelphia-Pittsburgh Steagles. It was a tough time but better days were on the way. By the end of the decade, the Eagles were a powerhouse, winning championships in '48 and '49. For the Steelers, the winning, a lot of winning, was still about thirty years away.

Franchise movement and changes were fairly common during the first few decades of the league. In my opinion, none was as crazy as the "switcheroo" of the Steelers and Eagles. The current Colts' franchise history is kind of wacky but that's a story for another day. NFL franchises are tracked kind of like pink slips. Franchises are sold to another owner or back to the league (It's been quite a while since this has happened.) but the franchise can be tracked through different cities or incarnations. With that in mind, the team that we now know as the Pittsburgh Steelers, winners of six Super Bowls, was the Philadelphia Eagles from 1933-1940. The team that we now know as the Philadelphia Eagles was once the Pittsburgh Pirates/Steelers. Fascinating stuff. As my interest in football, and its history, has grown over the years, I've found many fascinating little nuggets. Some of the most fascinating involve the paths franchises have taken to form

Happy bye week! Since the Vikings are on vacation, so are we! Join us and Christie Brinkley for Episude 76!

Happy bye week! Since the Vikings are on vacation, so are we! Join us and Christie Brinkley for Episude 76! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACAhR6twzCQ

Off to a 3-1 start despite questionable play, the Vikings look to retain first place in the NFC North with a win against the rebuilding Bears. Dropping this one would vault the Bears over them, so winning this one is imperative - besides, losing even to this team in Solider Field is one thing, losing this one is another.



Injury Report

Vikings

TE Ellefson - Out
WR Nailor - Questionable
CB Booth - Questionable


Bears

HB Montgomery - Questionable
CB Johnson - Doubtful
S Cruikshank - Doubtful

Line: Vikings -7.5 (71% of bets on Vikings)

Simulator's Line: Vikings

* My Thoughts *

The Bears finally fired Nagy and Pace, and new GM Ryan Poles hit the nuclear button. Justin Fields, as questionable a QB as he looks now, has been put in a horrible situation - he now has the league's worst pass blocking O-line and the league's worst receiving corps. Not only that, but they didn't bother to bring in a offensive guru to help out, hoping that the Packers QB coach Luke Getsy can coach him up. The offense is built upon the run game, but David Montgomery is on the more doubtful side of questionable. They do have a great backup in Khalil Herbert, who has looked good enough to be a starter.

There's almost nobody to throw to, as Darnell Mooney had a strong second year in 2021 but is simply not a guy who can go up against other teams' best CBs. Not to mention that he put up far more stats with Dalton at QB... the same goes for Cole Kmet, who was a breakout candidate, but isn't even getting thrown to now. Behind those two, the Bears have nothing. St. Brown has the combine measurables and nothing else, and was never productive when he had Rodgers throwing to him. Pettis was a 2nd round flop who is more returner than receiver. 3rd rounder Velus Jones Jr has some upside, but hasn't played yet due to injury. Maybe Smith-Marsette gets some snaps? They also have nothing at backup TE.

On the O-line, the Bears are going forward with 5th roudn rookie Braxton Jones, but he's holding up decently so far. The same goes for RT Larry Borom, who's taken a big step up after a rough rookie year. The interior has been a tire fire and they no longer have Whitehair (IR). Jenkins has moved to guard and he's got Bradbury-like grades, a sold run blocker but he's been a sieve in pass protection. Patrick has been a flop as a FA acquisition, and Mustipher has been exceptionally bad with a 22.7 pass blocking score. The Vikings should be getting plenty of pressure on Fields.

On defense, the front four is simply not getting it done. Robert Quinn has not been getting pressure like he did last year and has been comprimised in the run game, and the rest of the players here should be backups. Muhammad is a solid run stuffer who has never been able to create any pass rush, and should be a rotational guy. Gipson and Robinson are promising part-time pressure makers. The interior is a major weakness, with Blackson being a consistent non-factor, Jones being bad in all departments, and Pennel has been terrible so far. Watts has been fine, but hasn't done much since a strong Week 1 outing.

The LB corps is Roquan Smith and a bunch of bodies. PFF has never liked him, but personally I'd give him a Good grade. Morrow is the other full-time LB and he's not playing that well - he's missed 7 tackles already. Thomas is a career backup who has good coverage grades so far.

The Bears spent 2 2nd rounders on DBs, that being Brisker and Gordon. Gordon has been very bad so far, giving up 74% of passes thrown his direction. Nickel CB Vildor is also getting ripped up. This has lead to teams staying away from Johnson, who looks like a keeper... but he's not playing in this game. Brisker has been fine so far minus missing 8 tackles. After two lacking seasons, Eddie Jackson finally seems to be rebounding, having 3 interceptions so far.

Prediction: Vikings 24, Bears 10

Even with the Vikings playing some rough football lately, it is time they brought the smackdown to an inferior team. The Vikings are a better team at literally every position, and will be at home playing a noon game. This is the easiest game on the schedule... which of course makes it a perfect trap game. Still, the Vikings are healthy, playing disciplined football, and should be able to move the ball on a defense that isn't as good as the numbers have shown so far. There will be a time when I predict we get upset, but I don't think it happens this week.

I'm 4-0 predicting games so far, by the way! I believe that makes me 27-10 since 2020 when I make predictions on who wins in my depth chart preview.

Any thoughts?Off to a 3-1 start despite questionable play, the Vikings look to retain first place in the NFC North with a win against the rebuilding Bears. Dropping this one would vault the Bears over them, so

Ted, Drew, and Chris had a blast talking aboutthe Vikings going 5-1 heading into the bye.

Check out what they liked, what they didn't like, and other observations from the 24-16 win:



Ted, Drew, and Chris had a blast talking aboutthe Vikings going 5-1 heading into the bye. Check out what they liked, what they didn't like, and other observations from the 24-16

Greetings Earthlings, and welcome to your week 6 edition of PPF. Midwinterviking isn't available this week, I think he's trekking the Amazonian jungle documenting the reproductive cycle of the ancient Patagonian moth  (or something like that) so you got me to preview this weeks game

The Vikings trek to Hard Rock Stadium to take on the Dolphins, kickoff @ 1PM ET and Brad Rogers will be our referee.
Minnesota has an abysmal record in Miami and haven't won there since 1976, they seem to melt in the heat and humidity in Florida. The last encounter was on Dec 21 2014 when the 6-9 Mike Zimmer led Vikings lost to the 8-7 Joe Philbin Dolphins 35-37.
With the Vikings leading 35-28 with 81 seconds to play, a 3rd down Ryan Tannehill pass fell incomplete, but a PI call on Xavier Rhodes extended the drive and on the next play Miami scored to tie the game.
The Vikings got the ball back and drove 2 yards   and were forced to punt, but the punt was blocked and went out of the back of the end zone for the game winning 2pt safety.

So, fast forward to now, and the 4-1 Vikings take on a 3-2 Dolphins team starting a 3rd string rookie QB. Too easy huh?
Miami own a 2-0 home record, while the Vikings are 1-1 on the road. 
Both teams average 23 ppg scored (T 12th) while the Vikings allow 20.4 ppg (14th) compared to Miami 26.2 (29th) Both offenses rely on the passing game and are in the top 10 for yards while their running games haven't been as effective.
The defenses have struggled to shut down opposing QBs passing and Minnesota has been pretty average against the run allowing 120 ypg (20th), Miami have been a bit better, allowing only 110 ypg (13th).

But enough of the stats, this game will go one of two ways.
1) The Vikings step things up on defense and pressure Thompson into mistakes and turnovers, the offense takes their opponent by the throat and puts up 40 on them, scoring TDs and not settling for field goals.

2) The Vikings sit back on defense and give the rookie time to make plays underneath and in the soft zones, similar to the Philly game, and Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki wreak havoc.
The Vikings offense stalls repeatedly and has to settle for field goals, allowing Miami to hang around, like the Detroit and Chicago games and it goes down to the wire.

This is a game the Vikings need to win if they have aspirations of making some noise in the playoffs. A loss to a third string rookie QB starting his first game would expose the Vikings as pretenders, not contenders.




Greetings Earthlings, and welcome to your week 6 edition of PPF. Midwinterviking isn't available this week, I think he's trekking the Amazonian jungle documenting the reproductive cycle of the

The Vikings have started off the 2022 season on the right foot, and now get a Dolphins team starting a 7th round rookie at QB. Will they need a fourth straight 4th quarter comeback to win this one, or are we allowed to finally blow someone out?



Injury Report

Vikings
RB Mattison - Questionable
OLB Wonnum - Questionable

Dolphins
LT Armstead - Questionable
QB Bridgewater - Questionable
RB Mostert - Questionable
TE Smythe - Questionable
S Campbell - Questionable
CB Kohou - Doubtful
QB Tagovailoa - Out


Line: Vikings -3 (54% of bets on Vikings)

Super Simulator's Calculated Line: Vikings -5.5


*My Thoughts*

Mike McDaniel was a surprise hire for the Dolphins, as he wasn’t expected to be landing a head coaching job quite yet, but from the roster construction of the offense, it is apparent that ownership wanted a piece of the Shanahan 49ers offense pie. The result has been more pass-happy, but in the short span when Tagovailoa was healthy, it looked solid. They are already down to their 3rd string QB, Skylar Thompson, a 7th rounder who had a phenomenal preseason that caught some attention. He’ll have to try and channel his inner Gardner Minshew, as the track record for late round QBs doing anything good in their rookie season is bleak.

They sifted through a group of running backs and ended up with Raheem Mostert, who of course was part of the 49ers Super Bowl run a few years back. The 30 year old (on his 8th stint on a roster!) has become the bellcow the past two weeks. He’s still speedy and effective when healthy, but he’s made of glass. They also signed Chase Edmonds, who specializes as a pass catching RB, but they’ve not using him in that capacity very often. They couldn’t get Kyle Jusczyzk, but instead got a lesser version in Alec Ingold, of whom is now the third highest paid FB.

The Dolphins have sunk a ton of capital into WR, spending two 1sts to land Jaylen Waddle last year and shipped a bunch of picks and money into Tyreek Hill. The investment has appeared to work before the QB injuries occurred – Waddle and Hill are both dangerous deep threats but are also both well-suited for short and intermediate targets. They’ve hogged a large percent of the target share, enough to where their other investments aren’t even being used. They gave Cowboys Cedrick Wilson $8M a year, but he’s barely contributed. Most egregiously, TE Mike Gesicki was given the franchise tag after combining for 1400+ yards the past two years, and now they’re using him as a blocker first and throwing to him 2.5 times a game… despite the fact that he’s best used as a big slot receiver.

Miami had the worst OL in football by a country mile last year, but they’ve made improvements. Terron Armstead’s injury status is tantamount, as the Dolphins aren’t even carrying a backup tackle. The situation at RT is dire – Austin Jackson is on the IR, meaning that Greg Little is playing. Little starting should be considered a DEFCON 1 as he is sub-Rashod Hill/Dakota Dozier graded by PFF. The interior has been mostly fixed, with free agent Connor Williams patching the center position, and Robert Hunt is starting to play like a top 10 guard. Unfortunately, Liam Eichenberg isn’t faring well at LG after flopping at LT last year.

Defensively, the Dolphins have been a mixed bag, shutting down the Bills but also getting pulverized by the Ravens and Jets. Their unit looks like a 3-4 system on paper, but going by the DL snap rates, they seem to be more of a 4-3 defense. They paid their top pass rusher Emmanuel Ogbah this offseason, but he’s off to a slower start so far. They have plenty of depth here despite what the depth chart looks like, as they use Phillips and Ingram as pass rushers and aren’t 4-3 OLBs. Ingram has been the most effective but is seemingly relegated to a part-time role. PFF loves the run-stuffers. Sieler, who’s built like a 3-4 DE, has come out of nowhere and is suddenly an elite run stuffer. Wilkins broke out last year and has become a standout 3 tech, but he does stuff the run better than rush the QB. Raekwon Davis may be insanely buff, but hasn’t received good grades. Their primary LBs are Jerome Baker and Elandon Roberts, who are fine tacklers but both can be beat in coverage, especially Roberts who has a 36.7 coverage grade.

The secondary was advertised as a strength, but injuries have sapped its potential. Xavien Howard should play but hasn’t been the same dealing with an injury, and their other stud CB Byron Jones is on the IR. Needham has been a perfectly average CB who has been playing more snaps than usual. Kohou has been a standout UDFA slot CB, but he won’t play, meaning that 1st rounder Igbinoghene should start. Needless to say being in Year 3, he has been a big disappointment, but he’s also barely played. Jevon Holland didn’t get enough credit as a fantastic safety as just a 3rd round rookie last year, but the other spot has been a problem with Rowe getting hurt (and not being all that good to begin with) and his replacement Jones grading very poorly.


Prediction: Dolphins 23, Vikings 19

Yes, I’m predicting the upset and a loss to a 3rd string QB! The Dolphins have won their last 8 home games in a row and the Vikings have struggled against a couple of skeleton crews the past couple weeks. Away teams seem to struggle with the heat, and even Belichick’s Patriots have a 9-14 record playing in Miami. I think Miami’s defense will shut down our offense in the second half, allowing for Thompson to conduct a 4th quarter comeback to lead to an unlikely victory.

Alright, thoughts?The Vikings have started off the 2022 season on the right foot, and now get a Dolphins team starting a 7th round rookie at QB. Will they need a fourth straight 4th quarter comeback to win this one,

The second decade of Minnesota Vikings football was a special decade for me. It’s when this kid from California fell for the team. Most of my family and several friends hassled me for my “odd” choice of teams. The San Francisco 49ers and Oakland Raiders were supposed to be the only options for someone from my spot on a map. Who cares about geography when picking a team? I didn’t. Minneapolis, or Bloomington, was as close as San Francisco as far as I was concerned. Fortunately for me, I had a father that allowed me to find my own football way. He’d been a 49ers fan since the team was introduced in 1946. He influenced my interest in football and ignited my passion in the game’s past. He just never insisted that my choices match his. Some might say that I missed out on Super Bowl titles by following the Vikings. Maybe. I don’t look at it that way. The Vikings are all that I’ve known, football-wise. They are all that I want to know. I wouldn’t change a thing. Well, I’d probably change the endings of a few of their seasons. I’ve loved my Vikings journey and I look forward to every step that it takes me. Enough about me. This is about the Minnesota Vikings of the 1970s. Despite never getting that one final win, it was a great decade. Legendary players, legendary teams. It was easy to fall for the Vikings during this decade. Here are some of the best players from a fun decade of Vikings football.

Minnesota Vikings 1970s All-Decade Team

Offense

Quarterback
Fran Tarkenton

This is an easy one. Fran Tarkenton had an odd Vikings career. He was traded to the New York Giants after the 1966 season. He was traded for after the 1971 season. He played for 18 years with a five-year New York sabbatical in the middle. Tarkenton had a great career. A Hall of Fame career. By the end of it he held all of the career passing records. Touchdowns, yards, completions, attempts. He held those records longer than any quarterback ever has. His most productive years were those played in the 1970s. He guided the Vikings to three Super Bowls. He’s easily the best quarterback in franchise history. At times, it feels like the Vikings have been looking for the team’s next franchise quarterback ever since Tarkenton retired after the 1978 season.

Running Back
Chuck Foreman

Another easy one. Put simply, Chuck Foreman was great. For the first five years of his career, he was arguably the best running back in the league. He was certainly the best all-around back in the league. In 1975, he was seven yards short of leading the NFC in rushing, receptions, and touchdowns. A Triple Crown. He was such a fun football player. If injuries hadn’t started whittling away at his talents after his fifth season, he’d be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. In my opinion, he did enough in those five seasons to be honored in Canton.

Fullback
Bill Brown

Picking the best Vikings fullback of the 1970s is difficult. Chuck Foreman played the position better than any player during the decade. He’s also the team’s best running back during the decade. Bill Brown was well past his best days in the 1970s but he still looked the part. He look and played like the fullback ideal of the 1960s and 1970s. He was a team leader until he retired after the 1974 season. I feel better about Brown being on this team than either of Ed Marinaro or Brent McClanahan.

Wide Receivers
Ahmad Rashad
Sammy White

The Vikings have been blessed with many great receivers. Ahmad Rashad and Sammy White was the team’s first great receiver duo. Both came to the team in 1976. White exploded on the NFL scene with a Rookie of the Year season. Rashad was so steady and productive for the Vikings. If he’d come to Minnesota a few years earlier and played with Tarkenton a few years longer, he’d be in the Hall of Fame. While Rashad and White are easy choices for this team’s receivers, it’s tough to not include John Gilliam. He was one of the league’s best deep threats of the early 1970s. He made the Pro Bowl each of his four years with the Vikings.

Tight End
Stu Voigt

Stu Voigt was a good tight end in the 1970s. Back then, the position was more blocker than receiver. Voigt was a better blocker than receiver. I remember one magazine, in a season preview, describing him as “mediocre, at best.” I felt that was a little harsh at the time. Still do.

Offensive Tackles
Ron Yary
Steve Riley

Ron Yary is arguably the best offensive tackle of his era. He’s one of the best offensive tackles of any era. He’s in the Hall of Fame. The only real debate over the team’s best offensive tackles of the decade is whether to include Grady Alderman over Steve Riley. In the 1970s, Alderman was edging toward the end of his career. Riley’s best years were the 1970s. From 1975-79, he was the team’s left tackle. He was a solid left tackle and nice bookend to Yary.

Offensive Guards
Ed White
Charles Goodrum

Ed White played both left and right guard. During the 1970s, he was the Vikings best left guard and the team’s best right guard. Perhaps I should have him playing both on this team. White’s best years were his right guard years next to Ron Yary. Charles Goodrum was a solid left guard. He formed a solid left side with Steve Riley.

Center
Mick Tingelhoff

Mick Tingelhoff was a fantastic center. He was arguably the league’s best center in the 1960s. He was a very good center in the 1970s. If anything was working against him during the latter years of his long career, it was the league’s offensive line evolution. At about 240 lbs, he was wildly undersized for his position. He was still a very good center during the final years of his Hall of Fame career.

Defense

Defensive Ends
Carl Eller
Jim Marshall

Both are Vikings legends. Carl Eller is in the Hall of Fame. Jim Marshall has a strong Hall of Fame argument and was the leader and heart of some of the best defenses in league history.

Defensive Tackles
Alan Page
Gary Larsen

Alan Page was one of the best defensive players I’ve ever seen. He wrecked offenses. As for the other defensive tackle, Gary Larsen started the decade. Doug Sutherland finished it. Both were solid players on a great defensive line. Larsen was the better football player.

Linebackers
Matt Blair
Jeff Siemon
Wally Hilgenberg

Matt Blair became the Vikings defensive leader following the retirements and departures of the team’s legends. He could do so much on the football field. I once heard that he could take a quarter off the top of a basketball backboard. I was never sure if that was true. Seeing the height that he could reach on field goal blocks it’s believable. Despite coming out of Stanford, Jeff Siemon was a great player for the Vikings in the 1970s. He’s right there with Scott Studwell, E.J. Henderson, and Eric Kendricks as the best middle linebackers in franchise history. Siemon may have been the only defensive player that showed up for Super Bowl XI. Wally Hilgenberg continued to play so well into the middle of the 1970s that he kept the very talented Fred McNeil on the bench.

Cornerbacks
Bobby Bryant
Nate Wright

Bobby Bryant was a very good cornerback for a long time. He was the last member of the great defenses of the late 1960s and early 1970s to retire. He made so many big plays in big games. Nate Wright is probably best remembered as the player shoved to the ground by Drew Pearson in the 1975 playoffs. Wright was a very talented cornerback. For a few years he was one of the league’s best.

Safeties
Paul Krause
Tom Hannon

Paul Krause was a unique football player. He was rarely near the line of scrimmage. With his tackling, you didn’t want him near the line of scrimmage. He was at his best roaming the defensive backfield. Krause intercepted so many passes. I felt that every pass that left a quarterback’s hand was going to end up in his hands. He did what he did on the football field better than any safety I’d seen until Ed Reed. Jeff Wright should probably be the other safety over Tom Hannon. Wright started next to Krause for most of the decade. Hannon is one of the more underrated players in team history. He got a couple starts in 1978 and became a full time starter in 1979. Despite so few games during the decade, I like Hannon over Wright for this team.

Special Teams

Kicker
Fred Cox

It’s remarkable that Fred Cox was kicking for the Vikings into the 1977 season. Most teams had turned to soccer-style kickers. Cox was 39 and still approaching the ball straight on. During the 1970s, he only attempted nine field goals from over 50 yards. It was a very different time.

Punter
Greg Coleman

Greg Coleman punted for the Vikings in 1978 and 1979. That’s enough for him to grab this spot over Neil Clabo and Mike Eischeid.

Returner
John Gilliam

The Vikings had strong special teams in the 1970s. They had a ridiculous knack for blocking kicks. That special teams strength wasn’t really reflected in their kick and punt returns. I’m giving this spot to John Gilliam partly because he returned a few kicks but mostly because he was such an explosive player during his four years with the Vikings. He deserves a spot on a Minnesota Vikings 1970s All-Decade Team.


The second decade of Minnesota Vikings football was a special decade for me. It’s when this kid from California fell for the team. Most of my family and several friends hassled me for my “odd” choice

Vikings Report is back, baby!! Ep 75–We review the season to date, pick our fantasy teams, preview the Dolphins game, trivia, Willie Wonka, and more! Come join us!

Vikings Report is back, baby!! Ep 75–We review the season to date, pick our fantasy teams, preview the Dolphins game, trivia, Willie Wonka, and more! Come join us!

I’m often thinking about football. Those thoughts range from current Vikings stuff to past Vikings stuff to current NFL stuff to past NFL stuff. It’s a lot of stuff. Football stuff. I’m currently reading a biography of Bronko Nagurski by Chris Willis. It’s an excellent, informative read. It has me thinking about past NFL stuff. In particular, it has me thinking about past NFL champions. Nagurski played an important role in the the first games that actually decided NFL titles. That’s no surprise as he was one of the greatest players of his era and one of the few players that probably could’ve played in any era.

Through the 2021 season, there have been 102 NFL champions. Actually, there have been 100 NFL Champions as the professional football league that we know as the National Football League was called the American Professional Football Association (APFA) in 1920 and 1921.

From 1920 to 1932, the APFA/NFL champion was the team with the best regular season record, pending the approval of the league’s owners. Here are those champions.

NFL Champions

1920: Akron Pros
1921: Chicago Staleys (Bears)
1922: Canton Bulldogs
1923: Canton Bulldogs
1924: Cleveland Bulldogs
1925: Chicago Cardinals
1926: Frankford Yellow Jackets
1927: New York Giants
1928: Providence Steam Roller
1929: Green Bay Packers
1930: Green Bay Packers
1931: Green Bay Packers
1932: Chicago Bears

The 1932 NFL title was an historical pivot point for the young league. At the completion of the regular season, the Chicago Bears and Portsmouth Spartans (today’s Detroit Lions) were tied. The Bears were 6-1-6 and the Spartans were 6-1-4. In those years, ties were dropped when determining the best record. In those low-scoring years, there were a lot of ties. The Bears and Spartans played in a quickly arranged game to determine the 1932 NFL Champion. This game would change professional football more than any game ever played. One of the most significant changes was the addition of an NFL Championship Game to the league schedule. Starting in 1933 the NFL title would be decided on the field with one final game.

NFL Championship Games

1933: Chicago Bears 23
          New York Giants 21

1934: New York Giants 30
          Chicago Bears 13

1935: Detroit Lions 26
          New York Giants 7

1936: Green Bay Packers 21
          Boston Redskins 6

1937: Washington Redskins 28
          Chicago Bears 21

1938: New York Giants 23
          Green Bay Packers 17

1939: Green Bay Packers 27
          New York Giants 0

1940: Chicago Bears 73
          Washington Redskins 0

1941: Chicago Bears 37
          New York Giants 9

1942: Washington Redskins 14
          Chicago Bears 6

1943: Chicago Bears 41
          Washington Redskins 21

1944: Green Bay Packers 14
          New York Giants 7

1945: Cleveland Rams 15
          Washington Redskins 14

1946: Chicago Bears 24
          New York Giants 14

1947: Chicago Cardinals 28
          Philadelphia Eagles 21

1948: Philadelphia Eagles 7
          Chicago Cardinals 0

1949: Philadelphia Eagles 14
          Los Angeles Rams 0

At this point, I must introduce the All-America Football Conference. The NFL was challenged by “another league” on several occasions through it’s 102 years. Most everyone knows about the American Football League. There were actually three of those. Red Grange and his squirrelly agent C.C. “Cash and Carry” Pyle formed the first AFL in 1926. It wasn’t successful and Grange was soon back with the Bears. There was an AFL in 1940. That was less successful than the first one. Then there’s the AFL in the 1960s. That was a success as all of the teams from that league are now members of the NFL. The All-America Football Conference was formed in 1946. As players returned home from World War II and the country returned to some degree of normalcy, a few football dreamers decided that there was room for two leagues. The AAFC rivaled the NFL for four seasons. If success of “another league” is measured by it’s eventual absorption into the NFL, the AAFC was a partial success. The Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers, and Baltimore Colts joined the NFL in 1950. The Colts team that joined the NFL in 1950 is not the Colts team that’s playing in Indianapolis today. It’s not even the Colts team that won titles for Baltimore in the late 1950s. The Colts team that joined the NFL in 1950 folded after a single season. The Colts team that’s playing in Indianapolis today finds it’s origins with the New York Yanks franchise that floundered in 1951, moved to Dallas, became the Texans, and folded after the 1952 season. That Yanks/Texans franchise was re-born as the Baltimore Colts in 1953. The absorption of the Browns and 49ers from the AAFC in 1950 and the clunky Colts (re)addition in 1953 would change the NFL title landscape. The incredibly talented Browns team would do so immediately. The Colts would do so soon. The 49ers would eventually have their title run.

Back to the NFL Championship Games.

1950: Cleveland Browns 30
          Los Angeles Rams 28

1951: Los Angeles Rams 24
          Cleveland Browns 17

1952: Detroit Lions 17
          Cleveland Browns 7

1953: Detroit Lions 17
          Cleveland Browns16

1954: Cleveland Browns 56
          Detroit Lions 10

1955: Cleveland Browns 38
          Los Angeles Rams 14

1956: New York Giants 47
          Chicago Bears 7

1957: Detroit Lions 59
          Cleveland Browns 14

1958: Baltimore Colts 23
          New York Giants 17

1959: Baltimore Colts 31
          New York Giants 16

Here, we must depart from the NFL titles to introduce the AFL titles. The American Football League joined the football fun in 1960 with eight teams peppered about the country. The eight owners, the “Foolish Club,” were determined and wealthy. Some were very, very wealthy. They also had a TV contract and they knew how to use it. The eight owners weren’t foolish. By the end of the decade, all eight teams and two teams added along the way would become part of the NFL.

AFL Championship Games

1960: Houston Oilers 24
          Los Angeles Chargers 16

1961: Houston Oilers 10
          San Diego Chargers 3

1962: Dallas Texans 20
          Houston Oilers 17

1963: San Diego Chargers 51
          Boston Patriots 10

1964: Buffalo Bills 20
          San Diego Chargers 7

1965: Buffalo Bills 23
          San Diego Chargers 0

1966: Kansas City Chiefs 31
          Buffalo Bills 7

1967: Oakland Raiders 40
          Houston Oilers 7

1968: New York Jets 27
          Oakland Raiders 23

1969: Kansas City Chiefs 17
          Oakland Raiders 7

Back to the NFL Championship Games

NFL Championship Games

1960: Philadelphia Eagles 17
          Green Bay Packers 13

1961: Green Bay Packers 37
          New York Giants 0

1962: Green Bay Packers 16
          New York Giants 7

1963: Chicago Bears 14
          New York Giants 10

1964: Cleveland Browns 27
          Baltimore Colts 0

1965: Green Bay Packers 23
          Cleveland Browns 12

1966: Green Bay Packers 34
          Dallas Cowboys 27

1967: Green Bay Packers 21
          Dallas Cowboys 17

1968: Baltimore Colts 34
          Cleveland Browns 0

1969: Minnesota Vikings 27
          Cleveland Browns 7

The NFL and AFL agreed to merge in June of 1966. Since the two leagues didn’t fully merge until the 1970 season, it would seem that the only thing to come out of the 1966 agreement was to hold a championship game between the two leagues. There was much more to it than that. Pete Rozelle became the commissioner of both leagues, there was a combined draft, and the junior league adopted the same playing rules of the senior league. The AFL competed their final four seasons under the umbrella of the NFL. The only thing kept separate between the two leagues was their regular season and playoffs. At the end of the 1966 season, the champions of the NFL played the champions of the AFL for the first time. The game had names like “World Championship Game” or “AFL-NFL World Championship.” That game wasn’t called the “Super Bowl” when it was played. Neither was the 1967 game. Kansas City Chiefs owner Lamar Hunt came up with “Super Bowl” as the name for the game. He was inspired by the Wham-o Super Ball toy with which his children played. I’ve heard various tales as to when “Super Bowl” was officially put into use. Supposedly, it became the official name during the 1968 season. However, the ticket of what should be Super Bowl III had “Third World Championship Game” printed on it. Perhaps the tickets were printed before the decision was made. Who knows? Sometimes, I feel like I’m the only one that even cares. All of the games are Super Bowls now. Through the 2021 season, there have been 56 Super Bowls. Here are those games and the NFL champions from 1966-2021.

Super Bowl Champs

1966
Super Bowl I
Green Bay Packers 35
Kansas City Chiefs 10

1967
Super Bowl II
Green Bay Packers 33
Oakland Raiders 14

1968
Super Bowl III
New York Jets 16
Baltimore Colts 7

1969
Super Bowl IV
Kansas City Chiefs 23
Minnesota Vikings 7

1970
Super Bowl V
Baltimore Colts 16
Dallas Cowboys 13

1971
Super Bowl VI
Dallas Cowboys 24
Miami Dolphins 3

1972
Super Bowl VII
Miami Dolphins 14
Washington Redskins 7

1973
Super Bowl VIII
Miami Dolphins 24
Minnesota Vikings 7

1974
Super Bowl IX
Pittsburgh Steelers 16
Minnesota Vikings 6

1975
Super Bowl X
Pittsburgh Steelers 21
Dallas Cowboys 17

1976
Super Bowl XI
Oakland Raiders 32
Minnesota Vikings 14

1977
Super Bowl XII
Dallas Cowboys 27
Denver Broncos 10

1978
Super Bowl XIII
Pittsburgh Steelers 35
Dallas Cowboys 31

1979
Super Bowl XIV
Pittsburgh Steelers 31
Los Angeles Rams 19

1980
Super Bowl XV
Oakland Raiders 27
Philadelphia Eagles 10

1981
Super Bowl XVI
San Francisco 49ers 26
Cincinnati Bengals 21

1982
Super Bowl XVII
Washington Redskins 27
Miami Dolphins 17

1983
Super Bowl XVIII
Los Angeles Raiders 38
Washington Redskins 9

1984
Super Bowl XIX
San Francisco 49ers 38
Miami Dolphins 16

1985
Super Bowl XX
Chicago Bears 46
New England Patriots 10

1986
Super Bowl XXI
New York Giants 39
Denver Broncos 20

1987
Super Bowl XXII
Washington Redskins 42
Denver Broncos 10

1988
Super Bowl XXIII
San Francisco 49ers 20
Cincinnati Bengals 16

1989
Super Bowl XXIV
San Francisco 49ers 55
Denver Broncos 10

1990
Super Bowl XXV
New York Giants 20
Buffalo Bills 19

1991
Super Bowl XXVI
Washington Redskins 37
Buffalo Bills 24

1992
Super Bowl XXVII
Dallas Cowboys 52
Buffalo Bills 17

1993
Super Bowl XVIII
Dallas Cowboys 30
Buffalo Bills 13

1994
Super Bowl XXIX
San Francisco 49ers 49
San Diego Chargers 26

1995
Super Bowl XXX
Dallas Cowboys 27
Pittsburgh Steelers 17

1996
Super Bowl XXXI
Green Bay Packers 35
New England Patriots 21

1997
Super Bowl XXXII
Denver Broncos 31
Green Bay Packers 24

1998
Super Bowl XXXIII
Denver Broncos 34
Atlanta Falcons 19

1999
Super Bowl XXXIV
St. Louis Rams 23
Tennessee Titans 16

2000
Super Bowl XXXV
Baltimore Ravens 34
New York Giants 7

2001
Super Bowl XXXVI
New England Patriots 20
Los Angeles Rams 17

2002
Super Bowl XXXVII
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48
Oakland Raiders 21

2003
Super Bowl XXXVIII
New England Patriots 32
Carolina Panthers 29

2004
Super Bowl XXXIX
New England Patriots 24
Philadelphia Eagles 21

2005
Super Bowl XL
Pittsburgh Steelers 21
Seattle Seahawks 10

2006
Super Bowl XLI
Indianapolis Colts 29
Chicago Bears 17

2007
Super Bowl XLII
New York Giants 17
New England Patriots 14

2008
Super Bowl XLIII
Pittsburgh Steelers 27
Arizona Cardinals 23

2009
Super Bowl XLIV
New Orleans Saints 31
Indianapolis Colts 17

2010
Super Bowl XLV
Green Bay Packers 31
Pittsburgh Steelers 25

2011
Super Bowl XLVI
New York Giants 21
New England Patriots 17

2012
Super Bowl XLVII
Baltimore Ravens 34
San Francisco 49ers 31

2013
Super Bowl XLVIII
Seattle Seahawks 43
Denver Broncos 8

2014
Super Bowl XLIX
New England Patriots 28
Seattle Seahawks 24

2015
Super Bowl L
Denver Broncos 24
Carolina Panthers 10

2016
Super Bowl LI
New England Patriots 34
Atlanta Falcons 28

2017
Super Bowl LII
Philadelphia Eagles 41
New England Patriots 33

2018
Super Bowl LIII
New England Patriots 13
Los Angeles Rams 3

2019
Super Bowl LIV
Kansas City Chiefs 31
San Francisco 49ers 20

2020
Super Bowl LV
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31
Kansas City Chiefs 9

2021
Super Bowl LVI
Los Angeles Rams 23
Cincinnati Bengals 20


NFL Titles Tally
13 Green Bay Packers
9 Chicago Bears
8 New York Giants
6 New England Patriots
6 Pittsburgh Steelers
5 Washington Commanders
5 Dallas Cowboys
5 San Francisco 49ers
4 Los Angeles Rams
4 Cleveland Browns
4 Indianapolis Colts
4 Philadelphia Eagles
4 Detroit Lions
3 Denver Broncos
3 Las Vegas Raiders
2 Miami Dolphins
2 Arizona Cardinals
2 Kansas City Chiefs
2 Baltimore Ravens
2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2 Canton Bulldogs
1 Seattle Seahawks
1 New Orleans Saints
1 New York Jets
1 Providence Steam Roller
1 Frankford Yellow Jackets
1 Cleveland Bulldogs
1 Akron Pros


I’m often thinking about football. Those thoughts range from current Vikings stuff to past Vikings stuff to current NFL stuff to past NFL stuff. It’s a lot of stuff. Football stuff. I’m currently

Welcome to the first edition of Purple Pain Rookie Watch, where I will keep you up to speed on how the 2022 rookie class is progressing. I will probably post every 3-4 weeks and see how things develop, but if a rookie does something big you'll hear about it here.

So let's get started with the guy who has been very productive and is my current favorite for OROY, Chris Olave. Through 4 weeks, Olave has 21 receptions for 355 yards and 1TD. He leads all rookies with 83.8 receiving yards per game, which is 10th overall for WRs. He averages 16 yards per reception (15th overall) which is higher than both Tyreek Hill & Davante Adams and he's doing all this despite the underwhelming QB play displayed by the Saints. 

The next player, and the early pick for DROY is Devin Lloyd, who has been outstanding on a revitalized Jacksonville defense. He has accumulated 38 tackles, 6 pass deflections, 2 ints and has been a revelation in pass coverage allowing just a 28.5 passer rating against and 4.3 yards per completion. Lloyd has been like a Swiss army knife for the Jaguars, lining up all over the place and making plays on all levels of the defense. He'll be a fun player to watch as the season unfolds.

I can't do a post on rookies and not touch on the Steelers decision to move Kenny Pickett into the starting QB role. This is the right move going forward as it will give Pickett the opportunity to learn and develop as well as building some chemistry with his team mates. The only reservation I have is OC Matt Canada, who I don't rate very highly as a play caller or an NFL caliber OC for that matter.

To close out this edition of Rookie Watch, let's look at a couple of late rounders.
Zander Horvath has 3 recs for 7 yards.....and 2TDs! Crazy stuff and a dream start for the Chargers 7th rounder.

4th round Houston running back Dameon Pierce is off to a nice start with 313 yds and 2 tds on 60 carries. A great effort on a team that has a long way to go.

And for those that didn't see it, George Pickens has wrapped up Rookie Play of the Year with this effort:

Welcome to the first edition of Purple Pain Rookie Watch, where I will keep you up to speed on how the 2022 rookie class is progressing. I will probably post every 3-4 wee

As a young Minnesota Vikings fan looking forward to Super Bowl XI, I devoured all written content on the big game. Since I lived about 90 miles from Oakland that written content was mostly Raiders-centric. The San Francisco Chronicle ran an article that shook the football world that I was just beginning to understand. The article detailed the remarkable connection between the Minnesota Vikings and Oakland Raiders. Before they were a member of the National Football League, the Vikings were aligned with the American Football League. 

This is a Minnesota Vikings origin story.

The National Football League finally found stability and some prosperity in the 1950s. Each of the previous three decades had been a struggle. The league’s 12 teams wanted it to continue. Several very wealthy businessmen wanted to be a part of the professional football fun. The league’s 12 teams didn’t want to share. For most of them, this was their livelihood. They didn’t need or want any rich guys grabbing a piece of what they had worked so hard to build. That didn’t stop very wealthy businessmen used to getting their way. In the late 1950s, NFL Commissioner Bert Bell was getting a lot of visits from these businessmen. Lamar Hunt was the most persistent. He was the son of Dallas oilman Haroldson Lafayette Hunt. Fortune Magazine in 1948 called the self-made billionaire the world’s wealthiest man. With a trust fund from his father, Lamar Hunt set out to make his own mark. He was drawn to sports and football was his first love. He wanted to own a professional football team. He had the money, he had the dream, and he most certainly had the conviction. Hunt visited Bell for the first time in the spring of 1958. The Commissioner repeatedly told him there would be no expansion of the NFL. The owners wouldn’t allow it. A unanimous vote of the owners was required to approve any new team. Washington Redskins owner George Preston Marshall, an unrelenting racist and all-around dirtbag, was a staunch opponent of expansion on general principle. The Chicago Cardinals were opposed out of self-interest. The team’s owners were considering a move and wanted to keep all of their options open. Despite not being at all interested in actually expanding, the NFL did form a committee to explore expansion possibilities in 1958. The committee never met and was eventually pared down to Chicago Bears owner George Halas, of course, and Pittsburgh Steelers owner Art Rooney. For all practical purposes, Halas was the expansion committee. Anyone interested in entering the exclusive club of the National Football League first visited Bell and then visited Halas.

Hunt wasn’t the only wealthy businessman calling on Bell. And Halas. Houston oilman Bud Adams came calling. So did representatives from Seattle, Buffalo, New Orleans, Denver, Miami, and Minneapolis. Bell and Halas saw a lot of interested people. The Minneapolis group centered around three prominent Twin Cities businessmen - Max Winter, E. William Boyer, and H.P. Skoglund. Ole Haugsrud was the owner of the Duluth Eskimos in the 1920s. He held an “open contract” to have the first chance at a franchise if the NFL ever decided to return to Minnesota. If the Minneapolis businessmen were successful in prying open the NFL’s doors, Haugsrud had a standing invite to be a part of the ownership group. Whenever Hunt, Adams, Winter, and the rest called on Bell and/or Halas they were `usually told two things. “No” and “Go see the Wolfners.” 

A significant portion of this drama revolved around the Chicago Cardinals. They were one of the few teams in the league that was struggling. They were struggling on the field, off the field, and in sharing Chicago with the Bears. The Cardinals, once owned by the late Charles Bidwill, was now owned by his widow, Violet, and her new husband, St. Louis businessman Walter Wolfner. The future of the Cardinals was so uncertain that they occasionally played home games in other cities to gauge fan interest in those cities. Would the team move? Would the owners sell? Who knew? The NFL often called it “the Chicago situation.” If the league ever wanted to expand they had to first settle the situation with the Cardinals. At least that’s what they said to anyone outside the league. I believe that Bell only wanted a stable Cardinals franchise and Halas only wanted Chicago to himself. Both would be accomplished with the team in the hands of a new owner. Both Bell and Halas wanted the Wolfners to sell the Cardinals. Wolfner didn’t want to sell but he sure liked the attention brought to him by Hunt, Adams, Winter, etc. Directing these rich guys to the Cardinals owners turned out to be a mistake for the NFL. None of these businessmen knew about each other. At least, they didn’t know about each other’s interest in professional football. Through his boasting about all his recent visitors, Wolfner introduced them. He let Hunt know that there were others. This gave the little kid with a trust fund a brilliant idea. If the NFL wouldn’t let him into their league, he’d start a new league. 

Before Hunt moved on his new league plan, he visited Bert Bell one final time in March 1959. He’d been making these visits for an entire year. Again, Hunt was told that the league couldn’t expand until resolving the Cardinals situation. Again, he was directed to Halas. He already knew that he was never going to get anywhere with the Bears owner. His plan for a new league had moved from just an idea. 

By turning away a parade of rich guys, the NFL (Wolfner) had inadvertently given Lamar Hunt a list of potential owners. He started recruiting those owners. He soon had six interested individuals/groups and cities.

Dallas - Lamar Hunt
Houston - Bud Adams
Denver - Bob Howsam
Los Angeles - Barron Hilton
New York - Harry Wismer
Minneapolis - Max Winter, E. William Boyer, H.P. Skoglund

With the National Hockey League in mind, Hunt thought six teams was a sufficient number. On August 3 1959, from the Houston office of Bud Adams, Hunt announced the formation of the American Football League. On August 14, 1959, the new professional football league met for the first time in the Imperial South Suite of the Chicago Hilton.

Hunt’s bold move to form the AFL brought a surprising ally. Bert Bell. The NFL’s commissioner welcomed the challenge of a rival league. He thought that the NFL’s competition with the All-America Football Conference from 1946-49 was a good thing. He didn’t think that at the time. 10 years later, he did. Bell told Hunt that he was available if he ever needed any advice. The commissioner of the NFL would be a confidant to the man starting a rival league. Bell’s first piece of advice for Hunt. Get eight teams. And pool any TV money. 

Two weeks after that first AFL meeting, the NFL responded. On August 29, 1959, at a press conference before the Chicago Bears - Pittsburgh Steelers preseason game, Halas and Rooney announced that the NFL was expanding. The league planned to award franchises the following January to begin competition in 1961. The two most likely cities were Dallas and Houston.

Hunt, Adams, Winter, all of these rich guys had been talking, pleading, negotiating with NFL people for at least a year. The answer was always “No.” Now, after they’d taken matters into their own hands, the NFL did what they said couldn’t be done. Apparently, it could be done but it had to be done on their terms. Tossing out Dallas and Houston as the likely cities was a lure for the apparent leaders of the new league. Surely, Hunt and Adams would jump at the chance at NFL franchises in their home cities. Take out the leaders and the new league would crumble. Halas, and the NFL’s owners, didn’t understand what they’d help to create. Hunt stayed committed to the owners that he recruited and the new league that he’d put together. The AFL moved forward and the Minneapolis group was a loyal member of the new league. 

Much of what the NFL had become by the late 1950s was due to the unique guidance of Bert Bell. His love of professional football was such that he could help and befriend a man that posed a threat to his league. Football is fun and more football is even better. There was room for more teams. There was room for another league. Perhaps that’s how Bell saw it. The NFL and professional football changed on October 11, 1959. While sitting in the Franklin Field stands watching the Steelers play the Eagles, the two teams that he once owned, Bert Bell collapsed from a massive heart attack. 

Hunt took his late friend’s advice and recruited Ralph Wilson (Buffalo) and Billy Sullivan (Boston) to the AFL. The new league had eight teams.  

With the teams in place, it was time to draft some players. A professional football league isn’t a league until it holds a draft. You can’t have a team without players. You can’t have players without a draft. The members of the new league came together the weekend of November 21-22, 1959. Considering all that was about to happen, it was convenient that the AFL’s first draft was held at the Nicollet Hotel in Minneapolis. The drama started the day before the draft. In the aftermath of Bell’s death, Halas took a more aggressive role in trying to lure Hunt and Adams over to the NFL. It didn’t work and Halas turned his attention to the Minneapolis group. It probably involved Sid Hartman. The Minneapolis Star Tribune sportswriter was good friends with Winter, Skoglund, and Boyer and had been their contact guy with Halas. Hartman apparently drove Halas crazy. So crazy that Halas once told Hartman that he’d give Minnesota a franchise just to get him off his back. Halas contacted Winter about jumping to the NFL. They talked. Halas probably leaked the talk to the press as rumors swirled immediately.

From Michael MacCambridge’s terrific book America’s Game:

Harry Wismer burst through the door, visibly agitated, carrying a newspaper under his arm. Someone asked if he was ready for dinner. “Yes!” he shouted, slamming the paper on the conference table. “And this is the last supper!” Pointing at Max Winter of the Minneapolis group, he added, “And he’s Judas!”

The headline of the next day’s edition of the “Minneapolis Star Tribune” read “MINNESOTA TO GET AN NFL FRANCHISE” and detailed the back-channel negotiations by Halas on behalf of the NFL. While the Minneapolis group had not been the very first to join the new league, they were considered a crucial franchise in the upper Midwest, and had played a vital role in the league’s early formation. Their abdication to the NFL, expertly engineered behind the scenes by Halas was a major blow to the AFL, and a victory for the older league, which seemed likely to approve expansion to Dallas and Minneapolis-St. Paul at its annual meetings in January. 

Charley Johnson may have written the Star-Tribune article but it might as well have been dictated by George Halas. The Minnesota defection was still just a rumor but things weren’t going as Lamar Hunt had dreamed. The new league’s members were reeling. An emergency meeting lasted until the early morning hours. Winter departed around 2:00 AM and made the following statement to the press: “I have withdrawn from the Minneapolis-St. Paul Football picture as far as the American League is concerned.” That left Skoglund as the only member of the Minneapolis group for the remainder of the new league’s big weekend. After the late night/early morning meeting, Hunt told reporters that Minneapolis was still in the AFL.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the Minneapolis group, there was still a draft to hold. The AFL’s first draft was strange. Partly because there was a question whether one of the team’s participating was even still part of the league. Mostly because only three teams (Dallas, Denver, and Los Angeles) had anyone there even remotely qualified to judge and select players. As a result, those three “general managers” kind of selected for everyone. First, they had a “territorial” draft. Each team received a player that played their college ball in that team’s region. Then, the three “general managers” would separate the eight best players at each position, put those names in a hat, and have each team blindly select a player. Each position was addressed in this manner. To fill out the entire roster, the draft lasted 33 rounds. The AFL Draft was held about a month before the NFL Draft to hopefully get a jump on signing the college prospects. Each team had to put together an entire roster. They weren’t just adding to one. 

Among the players assigned to the Minnesota AFL franchise:

Dale Hackbart, QB, Wisconsin - territorial selection
Maxie Baughan, C, Georgia Tech
Carroll Dale, End, Virginia Tech
Abner Haynes, RB, North Texas State
Jim Otto, C, Miami

Dale Hackbart would eventually play defensive back for the Vikings from 1966-70.

Following the draft, it felt like Minnesota’s time in the AFL was over. During the first week of January 1960, the Minneapolis ownership group made it official. They withdrew from the AFL. One would think that if George Halas had done the recruiting that entry into the NFL was a given. According to Cleveland Browns head coach Paul Brown, it wasn’t a done deal. The owners voted on the league’s expansion at their annual meeting in late January. Brown said that a straw poll revealed there wasn’t enough votes for approval. It’s a good thing that Brown was there to save the day for Winter, Skoglund, Boyer, and Haugsrud. 

From PB: The Paul Brown Story:

I was upset and told the owners, “We had promised these people they could have a franchise in our league. If we make a promise like that, we must deliver.”

When the meeting recessed, I saw how angry Max Winter and Charley Johnson, the sports editor of the “Minneapolis Tribune,” were getting, and when the meeting reopened, I was more determined than ever to press hard for fulfillment.

”If we promised these people, then we must fulfill that promise,” I told them again. “We can’t vote against this just because one or two people might not like the idea of having to take a lesser cut of the revenue pie. Our word has to mean something, and if we don’t give them the franchise, the American Football League will move in and make tremendous capital of the way we mishandled this matter.”

That did it, and the Vikings were voted into the NFL.

I’m sure that Brown played a role in getting Minnesota into the NFL but I question his heroic view of his efforts. I believe that it was more a combination of Halas and Brown as well as completing the blow to the AFL.

After playing the role of Minnesota savior, Brown felt a degree of responsibility for the league’s new team. At the Browns 1960 training camp, he invited Vikings personnel director Joe Thomas to view some of the Browns players that might have difficulty making the team’s roster. This little favor resulted in the trade that brought Jim Marshall, Paul Dickson, Jim Prestel, Jamie Caleb, Dick Grencni, and Bill Gault to Minnesota. 

On January 28, 1960, the Minneapolis ownership group of Max Winter, E. William Boyer, H.P. Skoglund, Ole Haugsrud, and Bernard H. Ridder Jr. were granted an NFL franchise. The team would begin play in 1961. 

Two months after the Minneapolis group unofficially bolted from the AFL, the new league found their eighth team. The choice of Oakland was actually one of necessity. Los Angeles owner Barron Hilton threatened to drop out if he wasn’t given a geographic rival. As that Chronicle article revealed to me in early 1977, the Oakland Raiders were an AFL team because the Minnesota Vikings weren’t. The Raiders got Minnesota’s spot in the league as well as their strange draft class. A class that included Jim Otto. 

I’ve often wondered if I would’ve become a fan of the Minnesota Vikings if they’d lived the AFL life. Being from California, I had no geographic ties to the team. Becoming a fan just happened. I don’t remember a time when I was interested in football and not interested in the Vikings. As soon as I discovered the purple uniforms, horned helmet, amazing defense, scrambling quarterback, incredible coach, and snowy games, I was hooked. It really was love at first sight. Once it hit I was interested in the team’s past as well as their present. I preferred the NFC and by extension the pre-merger NFL. That included the 41 NFL years before the Vikings were born.As a young Minnesota Vikings fan looking forward to Super Bowl XI, I devoured all written content on the big game. Since I lived about 90 miles from Oakland that written content was mostly

"Heard it from a friend who, 
heard it from a friend who, 
heard it from another you've been messin' around...
...you're under the gun, now you take it on the run..."

If you're a Generation X'er or Baby Boomer, then there's a good chance you know what song those lyrics belong to 1981's" Take it on the Run" by REO Speedwagon - a rock band formed in the late '60s in Champaign, Illinois, which is Chicago Bears country....the team the Vikings face in Week 5. 

And while that hit song is about a failed relationship, it also became this week's inspiration and gameplan for a variety of reasons, not the least of which refers to the "relationship" Vikings fans have had with the team. Yeah, they were "messin' around" on Love Boats and they've "failed" to win a Super Bowl....but right now they're 3-1...and on top of the NFC North...and they're takin' another Divisional win this weekend, baby, and they're gonna "take it on the run"! 

For all you Generation X'ers and Baby Boomers, get out your Trapper Keepers and take notes on how exactly we're gonna do that in this week's edition of Purple Path Forward...

...everyone else?



The 2022 Chicago Bears: "They are who we thought they were"

Before we get to how we beat the Bears, we have to understand who the Bears are, and quite frankly, the late Dennis Green said it better than you or I could ever say it: 



If you thought the 2022 Bears - under first-time head coach Matt Eberflus and second-year QB Justin Fields - were a team that still can't develop a QB to save their life and win primarily through running the ball on offense, while playing solid pass/red zone defense (something you can cut-n-paste to describe every Bears team that ever existed), we'll "crown" ya.

If you didn't think that? Well, unlike Denny, we'll "let 'ya off the hook", and provide the 2022 statistics below to visually show you, courtesy of the USA Today Bearswire site (link):

Beyond those, here are a few additional statistics that I gathered after doing my best Leslie impersonation of "reviewing the tape" of 2022 Bears games:

- Fields has the 3rd most rushing attempts of any QB thru 4 weeks at 34, with only Hurts (51) and L Jackson (37) with more. 
- The Bears have not allowed a 2nd half TD all season, a credit to defensive-minded HC Matt Eberflus and their halftime adjustments.

Hmmm...a top-five rushing offense with a QB that rushes a bunch...a top-five passing defense that doesn't allow teams to score in the Red Zone or in the 2nd half. Wait, haven't the Vikings given up the 10th most rushing yards so far? And hasn't 984, or 72%, of the teams total offensive yard total of 1,376 come through the air? And didn't we have trouble in the Red Zone against the Saints getting TDs? And haven't the Vikings been a 2nd half team - really a 4th qtr team - the past two weeks?

Are we sure that Vegas got the line right for this game with the Vikings -7.5?

"Ok, Ok Coach..simmer down...if you knew who they were, then why didn't you stop 'em?"



Good question, and I'll give 'ya four reasons why we don't have to:

1) The Bears stop themselves. Wanna know which team has run the third-fewest No. of offensive plays at 227 and has the seventh-shortest avg drive time at 2:29 per drive? That one was easy. Here's a tougher one: ever hear of Braxton Jones? Sam Mustipher? Lucas Patrick? Larry Borom? No? Me neither, until I actually watched some 2022 Chicago tape. They are some of the starters along the Bears' OL this season and are primarily responsible for the Bears having the third-most enforced false start penalties (7) through Week 4. That, combined with rookie LT Braxton Jones allowing 11 pressures and 4 sacks through four games will stop any positive drives in their tracks. 

2) Costly Turnovers. The Bears have a net turnover differential of 0 through four weeks, which by itself isn't exactly horrible; Coach Eberflus is continuing the long tradition of a Bears Defense doing the Peanut Tillman "punch" and thriving off turnovers, but it's been the giveaways that have been costly. The Bears have turned it over seven times, but four of those have come in the 2nd half and three of the four in the 4th quarter. They're in "rebuild mode" with youth at key positions, and with that comes costly mistakes in the clutch. 

3) Justin Fields: Effective runner, or running for his life? Remember when I mentioned earlier that Fields has the third-most rushing attempts of any NFL QB through four weeks? While that's true and Fields is very athletic/effective in the open field, here's where I put that into a bit of context. Fields has 146 rushing yards on those 34 attempts, and all but 133 of those yards came on scrambles. What that means is that the Bears offense, under former Packers QB coach Luke Getsy and former Vikings QB coach Andrew Janocko, isn't designing runs for Fields in the same way the Bills, Ravens, Giants, and Eagles do for their athletic starting QBs, and Fields often picks up those yards when he had no other option. Or, because his ability to read a defense pre/post snap isn't where it should be yet, he's bailing on clean pockets when his first read isn't there. Or, and more closely associated with reason No. 1, he has an inexperienced OL in front of him that doesn't give him clean pockets, and he's having to scramble around and run for his life.

4) They don't stop anybody else. Yes, having the third-best rushing offense has certainly helped the Bears to victories in a sloppy Soldier Field during Week 1 against the 49ers and a Texans team that ranks second-worst in rushing defense in Week 3. But you have to stop the opposing team once in a while, too, and even though the Texans have the league's second-worst rushing defense, guess who's the worst? Even though they are a strong rushing team themselves, the Bears have been outgained on the ground in three of their four matchups so far and six of the eight TDs they've allowed this season have come on rushes (the actual number is five of eight, but I'm counting an Aaron Rodgers forward "toss" TD to Aaron Jones as a rush). 

And on that last point, we circle back to the Purple Path Forward gameplan for this Week 5 divisional matchup against the Bears...

"Take it on the run..."

With all the hype on Justin Jefferson breaking receiving records and Irv Smith Jr. "breaking out" in Year 4, the focal point, at least for this week vs the Bears, is focusing on another statistic: that Chicago remains the worst rush defense in the league AFTER Week 5. 

But how? Haven't we been continuing to see Dalvin run into brick walls a bunch on early downs, which is causing us to get into more 3rd-and-long situations than necessary? Yes, we have, because, quite frankly, our play-calling and the blocking schemes have been lazy...

Case in point: in the Week 4 game vs the Saints, the Vikings' defense stopped the Saints opening 3rd quarter drive and received the ball up 13-7, hoping to start putting nails in the Saints' coffin with a long TD drive. Then on 1st & 10, we line up Cook behind Ham with a TE (Ellefson) on the right side:



What happens? Well, it's a straight hand-off to Cook to the right side with no misdirection, no pre-snap motion, and no pulling OL - it's straight-up power football (almost like we had Adrian Peterson back there) and you already know what happens without me captioning it: Bradbury and Ellefson get driven into the backfield, and Cook tries to follow through Ham between those two, but both the Saints DL easily get off those blocks and blow up that play for a 1-yd gain:



On 2nd down, Cousins misfires to Jefferson and all of a the sudden, we're 3rd and long, which has been trouble for this team recently. In the above pic, you'd like to think Cook could bounce that outside to the right (outside of Ellefson) if he initially sees some OL are getting pushed back in the backfield, but I'm not sure Cook has that "step" in his game anymore - to bounce things out on a dime and have enough speed to get around the edge. 

So what's the solution? How do we have the success against the Bears' 32nd-ranked rushing defense that their opponents have had so far?

Glad you asked...because, well, I spent time watching the Bears' opponents and although the rushers they faced were different than the Vikings (mish-mish of Deebo, Elijah Mitchell, Jeff Wilson, Trey Lance in Week 1, Aaron Jones/A.J. Dillon in Week 2, Dameon Pierce in Week 3 and Saquon Barkley/Daniel Jones in Week 4), there have been a few holes in that Swiss-cheese Bears rush defense that have looked familiar across those four games...

One of those similarities has been pulling the OL. Intead of going toe-to-toe with Eberflus's patented 4-3 defense, all four Bear opponents were able to have a level of success rushing the football when OL have pulled around, created lanes/double-blocks, etc, and the RB followed behind that to get to the second level. 

In this example from the Week 3 game vs Houston, you have the Texans set up 1st & 10 from the Chicago 41 after a Bears punt and nice return by the Texas returner. They start out with RB Dameon Pierce in the backfield with their FB with a TE to the right side, and two WR to the left:



When the ball is snapped, the center (No. 54 Scott Quessenberry) and RG (No. 60 AJ Cann) pull to the right side, and while everyone else creates a clogged-up wall to the left, Cann takes care of the RDE, and Pierce has a clear lane to run behind not just the FB, but the center to the second level:



The result of this play was Pierce getting all the way down to the Chicago 17 yd line (I believe his longest rush of the game), which eventually led to a Texans TD and them taking a 14-10 lead midway through the 2nd quarter on the road. 

Another example is just the infamous McVay presnap motion/cutback run. How many times during the Zimmer era did teams use this against his 4-3 and Barr/Kendricks were out of position every time and never maintained that gap discipline? The Packers were driving the ball midway through the 2nd Qtr in Week 2 already up 10-7 and were looking to start pulling away from Chicago, who was fairly competitive at this point. But after a few plays, LaFleur dialed up the McVay pre-snap cutback run about four to five times in a row, Chicago did nothing to adjust, and the Packers ended up eventually scoring a TD to go up by ten and it essentially was the beginning of the end for the Bears on SNF. 

We've seen this action many, many times before...11 personnel with one RB, one TE and three WR. The WR farthest out goes in motion pre-snap from right-to-left to draw the attention of the defense to the left...



...the ball is snapped and the OL block to the left while the QB hands the ball off to the RB, who immediately cuts back to the right, and the defense is wide open to get to the second level, with the lone WR to the right and the RT to help block downfield:



Eberflus, like Zimmer (2018-2021 era, after McVay started really hammering this run in his inaugural 2017 season), did not make any adjustments and Rodgers/LaFleur ran tempo here to just drive this run home till the cows came home... 

How to beat the Bears



This isn't rocket science. The Bears are exactly who we think they are: a young team that makes mistakes, relies on running the ball well, but also gives up more ground to the opposing team than they get.

On offense, O'Connell, Wes Phillips and Cousins do not need to overthink this by trying to scheme Justin Jefferson open like Cooper Kupp: the Bears have a solid secondary with some young, up-and-coming players in Jaylon Johnson, Jaquan Brisker, and Kyler Gordon. Yes, Gordon is a rookie and can be beaten off the line and while you take that when it's there, you also ensure you are mixing in rushing plays against the porous Bears rush defense. And not just straight hand-offs to brick walls, either: O'Connell and OL coach Chris Kuper need to ensure they draw up the proper McVay/Shanahan runs (by mixing in the pre-snap motion/cutbacks, with the pulling OL runs) to keep Eberflus guessing which way the ball is going. The only thing I didn't mention from the game footage was that Chicago's "youth" on defense is also susceptible to another age 'ol football 101 defensive "no-no": they don't set the edge very well. Green Bay in Week 2 and especially the Giants in Week 4 exploited the Bears' DEs/LBs failing to set an edge and Aaron Jones and especially Daniel Jones were able to easily turn the corner to miles and miles of daylight ahead of them - heck, Daniel Jones' two TD runs were both exactly that: the Bears failing to set the edge on a bootleg. How can the Vikings exploit that without a mobile QB, you might ask? We have some speedy wideouts and we've seen a sprinkling of success on jet sweeps already this season. 

On defense, I know we're all begging for more QB pressure, but I do feel the gameplan should somewhat try to emulate the Week 1 approach against the Packers, who had a weak OL (especially at OT) and we feasted off of that. The Bears' OL is a true work-in-progress at this point, and Hunter/Z Smith should be able to have the same level of success they did at home vs the Packers. What Donatell could do is bring Harrison Smith down in the box a bunch more this game - especially early on - to try and stop the Bears' rushing attack and put pressure on Fields to beat us with his arm from the pocket, which he has not shown he has the ability to do with any consistency. 

"Take It on the Run"...it might be considered "classic rock" at this point, but everything that once was old always comes back in-style at some point, and when it comes to the Purple Path Forward in Week 5, we don't need to be "messin' around"...

Even Daniel and Johnny can agree on that...

"Heard it from a friend who,  heard it from a friend who,  heard it from another you've been messin' around... ...you're under the gun, now you take it o

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EF9yTAA1te8&t=2605s

Week 3 is in the books with PFF coming out on top as the only metric predicting a Vikings win. Which is weird, because if ever there was a game where the better playing team lost, it was that one. Looking at this week’s matchup, the Vikings compare very favorably to the Saints.


Starting off with drive stats:


Offense








Defense








Offensively the Vikings have surpassed their 2021 ranking in both points and yards, but it has been a down year for scoring so far this season, and the Vikings are significantly worse at scoring than last season where they put up 2.05 points per drive (PPD). Their 1.81 PPD this season would have had them ranked 24th last season, behind the Lions. The poor time of possession and three and outs are rearing their ugly heads again, making this appear to be more of a personnel issue than a play calling one. The worst part is, that unlike last year where the Vikings were making big plays to make up a little bit for the lack of sustained success, the Vikings are near the bottom of the league in explosive plays. Just three completed passes over 20 yards so far this season. The Saints are just awful all around on offense and 1.34 PPD would have been dead last in 2021. There are rumors they are going to be making a switch at QB, and frankly, I don’t understand why it took them so long. I don’t understand why they made him the starter over other better options who were available like Jimmy G, Bridgewater or any random former high school QB either. The Saints offense doesn’t move the ball well, they turn it over a ton, are bad in the red zone, bad in time of possession, and are just plain bad. The defense should feast this Sunday and might even put together a performance where they not only don’t break, but they don’t bend either.


Speaking of the defense, while their yardage totals are terrible, they are actually doing a very good job keeping the other team from scoring, which is impressive considering two of the three offenses they have faced have been very good. Drive stats indicate the Vikings defense is actually superior to its offense, something most people would be a bit surprised by. One of the biggest reasons for that is the great kickoffs and punts the Vikings have been getting out of their special teams making the opposition make longer drives than just about any other team. The Vikings are starting each defensive series after a score with the opposition needing to move the ball four more yards than the average NFL team and if you take out the two missed 56 yard field goals, probably closer to seven more yards after a punt. That is exactly what you need for this apparent bend don’t break defense. The Saints defense is much better than these stats show and are being hurt dramatically by Winston’s play, similar to what happened in his final year in Tampa. He consistently puts them in a bad spot, making them defend short fields after his poor decision making causes a turnover, and on top of that, his defense is being asked defend more drives than most because of the three and outs and time of possession on offense. They are a top three defense with a better offense and putting up twenty earned points on them will be a win.


More on the special teams front, their kick off coverage is one of the worst in the NFL(27th) and if the Vikings don’t start getting some good returns against them, they might want to consider changing their returner. Nwangwu needs to go off, assuming he gets a chance that is.


DVOA:


Offense






Defense




DVOA isn’t that much different than drive stats, although it does like the offense a bit better and hates the Vikings’ defense a lot more. For the fourth straight week the Vikings will face a good running team, but this week the passing game of the opponent is really bad and the Vikings should be able to sell out to stop the run. DVOA believes Vikings passing offense is slightly above average, their run game is very good while their pass defense is below average and run defense is terrible. Hard to really argue with that. The Saints are more susceptible to the run than the pass on defense, which matches up well with what the Vikings do well on offense. If old school football fans are correct and defense is more important than offense, the Vikings lose this one based on DVOA. If not, the Vikings roll the Saints in an easy victory.



PFF:







Based on the results, PFF has the Saints offense graded way too high. It has been a disaster this season and PFF has them graded as the 12th best offense, just eight behind the Vikings who’s offense is currently graded as the 4th best. One could argue that it is a good offense outside of the QB, but PFF has their passing offense as the 14th best in the NFL. More surprisingly, the Saints’ receivers are grading out significantly higher than the Vikings’, while their running and run blocking are significantly lower. Based on PFF, this would indicate that the Vikings should not focus on stopping the run but should be looking to stop the Saints above average passing offense.


Defensively for the Saints, PFF says their coverage is very good and their pass rushing is very bad. This actually jives with the results on the field, with the Saints best pass rusher having fewer pressures than four of the Vikings pass rushers, and half of the Viking’s best pass rusher. If the pass rush isn’t getting to the QB, the secondary must be playing out of their minds to keep teams from throwing all over them. Run defense grade aside, PFF’s grading on defense looks pretty accurate for both teams based on results and it is tough to argue that coverage is not a liability for the Vikings, while their pass rush is very good.


Bonus UK/Mexico City Stats:

• The “home” team has lost more games than they have won going 13 for 31: A plus for the Vikings
  
• Blowouts are far more common, with 17 out of the 31 ending in a win by two scores or more. For context, only 18 of 48 games have ended with a two or more score margin so far this season: With how unstable the Saints are on offense, this is a plus for the Vikings
• Shutouts are more common over the past 31 games overseas, happening at nearly twice the rate. Low scoring by one opponent is also very high, particularly the home team: Another plus for the Vikings

In summary, for the three straight weeks the numbers overall are slightly favoring the Vikings, with PFF being the stat giving the Vikings the edge once again. The last two games it certainly didn’t feel like the Vikings were the superior team, but they did win one of those two and hopefully that happens again this week. I believe it will and the Vikings win in a blowout 24-10 with one defensive score.Week 3 is in the books with PFF coming out on top as the only metric predicting a Vikings win. Which is weird

Able to sneak away with a win against the Lions, the Vikings now find themselves matched up in London against a Saints team with a bad offense and good defense. Will they be able to get to 3-1?



Injury Report
Vikings
CB Booth - Doubtful
OLB Smith - Questionable

Saints
LG Peat - Out
WR Thomas - Out
QB Winston - Doubtful
S Maye - Out
RB Kamara - Questionable

Line: Vikings -3, 84% of bets on Vikings

*My thoughts*

The Saints' offense has been hard to watch, and now their QB is unlikely to play, meaning that Andy Dalton will start and probably have Taysom Hill mixed in a few times. Dalton has dropped to #11 in my backup QB rankings, as his most recent play with the Cowboys and Bears has been subpar at best. His accuracy is not quite it used to be, as his deep accuracy was among the worst among any passer last year, and is only average throwing short to intermediate. He's also been more turnover prone since his Cincy days.

You may be surprised to see Kamara ranked poorly compared to common opinions, but he did only run at a 3.7 YPC clip last year and is currently not 100% so far, being held back by a ribs injury. Ingram has returned to be their backup, but he isn't the runner he used to be (I believe he's the second oldest RB in football!). The Saints did ensure Winston had weapons this time, as going with Callaway and Smith as their top WRs was a very bad idea last year. Instead, they signed Landry and drafted Olave, plus Thomas is finally healthy. Wait, now he's hurt again! That aside, Olave has looked like the same receiver who was torching defenses for Ohio State, and profiles as an effective deep receiver, but he also has the skills to be an effective short to intermediate receiver as well. Landry has been solid and is similar to Thomas, as an effective slot receiver commonly running slants. As for the TE position, Taysom Hill is listed as one but is more of a wildcard. Johnson and Trautman have split TE duties, and neither have been anything special so far.

The Saints were hoping to plug in Trevor Penning at LT, but with the first round rookie injured, James Hurat is filling in at LT. He's been a long-time backup, but has been more effective in New Orleans compared to his stint with the Ravens. Andrus Peat is out at LG, but he's been rated as a poor starter for years by PFF... but he's being replaced by Throckmorton, who is a Dakota Dozier-level guard. McCoy has been a solid center, with pass protection as his primary strength. Ruiz has been somewhat of a disappointment for a 1st round pick, as his run blocking has been a weakness early in his career. Ramczyk is still rock-solid.

Defensively, this unit is downright scary on paper. Methinks PFF is overrating them to a degree, but this unit is usually keeping this team in the game when the offense stinks it up. They are very effective at generating pressure, with Jordan coming off another 10+ sack season and Davenport finally living up to the hype. Granderson was a fantastic rotational pass rusher last year, to boot. From the interior, Onyemata had a huge year in both departments in 2021, but is off to a slower start. The same is the case for Tuttle, who is better at being a run stuffer despite being on the smaller size. At LB, Davis has shown no signs of slowing down at age 33, and has even improved his game in coverage - he's had a heck of a turnaround after being an average at best linebacker his first 5 years in the NFL. Meanwhile, second year Pete Werner had a fantastic 2021 with a near perfect run stopping + tackling grade, but has struggled in the first few weeks this year. Special teamer Kaden Elliss is being given a shot as their 3rd LB, but they go with 3 safeties sometimes.

Finally, the Saints' secondary looks strong. Even with Maye out, they can plug PJ Williams or Justin Evans (a former safety) into that spot and still be comfortable with their CB room. While they could use another body, they have a stud lockdown corner in Lattimore, and a solid #2 in Roby. That's not mentioning Adebo, a 3rd rounder who started every game in his rookie year (2021) - he had his struggles but profiles as a guy who has the potential to take a big step forward. Meanwhile at safety, Mathieu is no longer in his prime but is still a weapon to be feared and is still covering well.

Prediction: Vikings 17, Saints 16

This looks to be a low-scoring slugfest, with neither team benefitting from homefield advantage. I wanted to predict the Saints to make the upset, but I think their offense is simply too bad to be confident in my 'hot take'. I do think their defense could shut down our offense for long stretches, as they have a corner who can deal with Jefferson, a run defense who can put the clamps down on a not 100% Cook, and a pass rush that may make Cousins dance. Still, I could see the defense force multiple turnovers and put our offense into good enough field position that they can cash in on. 

Any thoughts?Able to sneak away with a win against the Lions, the Vikings now find themselves matched up in London against a Saints team with a bad offense and good defense. Will they be able to get to 3-1?

The 1960s was an interesting decade for the Minnesota Vikings. The decade started with arguably the greatest debut in NFL history, a stunning 37-13 win over the Chicago Bears. The decade ended with the team’s first Super Bowl appearance. In between, there were a lot of losses. They were an expansion team. There was also a lot of fun. The offense, guided by Fran Tarkenton, was often wildly entertaining. Norm Van Brocklin and Bud Grant were the head coaches. The two could not be more different as individuals or coaches, on and off the field. The Vikings of the 1960s were loaded with outrageous personalities. I highly recommend Karl Kassulke’s biography for an up-close look at the teams and individuals. Here’s a look at some of the best players of the Minnesota Vikings’ first decade. 

Minnesota Vikings 1960s All-Decade Team

Offense

Quarterback
Fran Tarkenton

This is an easy one. I envy every fan that was in the Metropolitan Stadium stands on September 17, 1961. In the franchise’s first game, Fran Tarkenton came off the bench to lead the Vikings to a win over the Chicago Bears. His scrambling ways was thrilling for everyone but his head coach. I suppose if Tarkenton and Van Brocklin had gotten along, the Vikings never would’ve turned to Bud Grant in 1967. 

Halfback
Tommy Mason

When I visited the Minnesota Vikings Museum in 2019 I was thrilled to find a Tommy Mason exhibit. I’ve always felt that his Vikings career had been lost to history, that he was only a footnote as the team’s first draft pick. Hopefully, that exhibit will introduce Mason to today’s fans. He was probably the Vikings’ first star. He made the first of his three Pro Bowls in his second season. He was All-Pro in his third season. Just when he was hitting his stride, injuries started whittling away at his great talent. It’s tough to leave Dave Osborn off of this team but Mason’s three great seasons get him the halfback spot on this team.

Fullback
Bill Brown

Bill Brown was the picture of a 1960s NFL fullback. This was an era when a fullback was often a team’s top running threat. This was an era of Jim Brown, Jim Taylor, Rick Casares, and Alex Webster. Bill Brown was one of the league’s best. The Bears traded Brown to the Vikings. George Halas lived the rest of his life regretting it.

Wide Receivers
Paul Flatley
Gene Washington

Paul Flatley is the first of four (should be five) Vikings receivers to be named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. He made one Pro Bowl in his five years with the team. He probably should’ve made three. Flatley is an easy choice for one of the receiver spots. The other spot isn’t so easy. Jerry Reichow was a strong contributor at the start of the decade. Gene Washington was a big play threat at the end of the decade. I’m going with the big play threat. 

Tight End
John Beasley

One of the biggest offensive changes in the NFL from the 1960s to today is the evolution of the tight end. Tight ends of the 1960s were really more extra lineman than receiver. Mike Ditka, John Mackey, and Jerry Smith were impact pass-catching tight ends but they were exceptions. Tight ends of the 1960s more often resembled Jim Kleinsasser. Blocking or catching, the Vikings of the 1960s had modest tight ends, at best. Gordie Smith and John Beasley were the most productive. In a very difficult decision, I’m going with Beasley.

Offensive Tackles
Grady Alderman
Doug Davis

Two Vikings played the entirety of the 1960s. Everyone knows about Jim Marshall. Everyone should know about Grady Alderman. He should be in the Ring of Honor. He’s been waiting way too long for the recognition that his career deserves. He was the Vikings left tackle from 1961-73. He missed one game. He went to six Pro Bowls and was named 2nd Team All-Pro twice. Alderman was a great offensive tackle. It feels like the right tackle spot should go to Ron Yary. He was drafted in 1968 but didn’t take over the right tackle job until 1969. His six starts that season might be enough to be the right tackle on this All-Decade Team. He was that good. Instead, I’ll go with the player that Yary put on the bench. Doug Davis.

Offensive Guards
Milt Sunde
Larry Bowie

Milt Sunde benefitted from playing between Grady Alderman and Mick Tingelhoff and is an easy pick at left guard. Sunde made the Pro Bowl in 1966. Larry Bowie was the Vikings starting right guard for most of the 1960s.

Center
Mick Tingelhoff

This is an easy one. Mick Tingelhoff was arguably the NFL’s best center in the 1960s. 

Defense

Defensive Ends
Jim Marshall
Carl Eller

Anyone picking a defensive end other than Jim Marshall and Carl Eller should be booted to the Packers. Idiots will not be tolerated in this fan base.

Defensive Tackles
Alan Page
Gary Larsen

Bud Grant was notoriously reluctant to play rookies. He couldn’t keep Alan Page on the bench very long. I didn’t see Page play until the 1970s. He was incredible during those years. I’ve never seen a defensive lineman take over a game like he could. I wish that I had seen him play in his early years. I met Page in Canton at Cris Carter’s Hall of Fame induction. It was a truly great moment. 
It’s between Paul Dickson and Gary Larsen for the other defensive tackle spot. While I believe that Dickson is an underrated player in Vikings history and Larsen benefitted greatly from the attention paid to Page, Larsen’s best years were better than Dickson’s best years. 

Linebackers
Rip Hawkins
Lonnie Warwick
Roy Winston

I probably should go with the terrific linebacker trio that closed the decade. Wally Hilgenberg, Lonnie Warwick, and Roy Winston. However, Hilgenberg didn’t enter the starting lineup until the second half of the 1968 season. In putting together a team like this, I try to keep the players in the positions that they played on the field. For the Vikings best linebackers of the 1960s, I can’t help but pick the three best linebackers. Rip Hawkins was one of the team’s best linebackers. He’s the only one that earned an invitation to the Pro Bowl during the decade. Like Warwick, he played in the middle. For this team, Hawkins is on the outside. I think that he could do it. 

Cornerbacks 
Earsell Mackbee
Ed Sharockman

Bobby Bryant was the Vikings best cornerback that played during the 1960s. He only started 10 games during the decade. Earsell Mackbee and Ed Sharockman were the starting cornerbacks during most of the 1960s. They were good. At times, they were pretty good. 

Safeties
Paul Krause
Karl Kassulke

I really liked this safety duo. Paul Krause and Karl Kassulke were so different as players. Krause was the rover. Kassulke was the hammer. Kassulke was nearing the end of his career in 1972 but he still had some solid football left. His lone Pro Bowl was in 1970. His career ended when a motorcycle accident while on the way to training camp left him paralyzed. 

Special Teams

Kicker
Fred Cox

This is another easy one. 1961 and 1962 were the only years that Fred Cox wasn’t the Vikings kicker. Plus, he’s the inventor of the nerf football. 

Punter
Bobby Walden

Bobby Walden might be best remembered for his long career with the Pittsburgh Steelers. His best years were his first four years with the Vikings.

Returners
Charlie West
Hugh McElhenny 

Charlie West was the Vikings top returner in 1968 and 1969. He was very good at returning both kicks and punts. His highlight was a 98-yard punt return score in 1968. 

I had to include Hugh McElhenny on this All-Decade Team. He was the big name from the 1961 Expansion Draft. He was at the end of his brilliant career but the “old man” still had some football in him. He made the Pro Bowl in 1961. Like Barry Sanders, every McElhenny run was an adventure. There was always a chance the adventure might end in the end zone. In 1961, he returned a punt 94 yards for a score and led the league with 1731 all-purpose yards.  He may have been a shell of the player that he once was but he brought a lot of football fun to Minnesota that first season. 









The 1960s was an interesting decade for the Minnesota Vikings. The decade started with arguably the greatest debut in NFL history, a stunning 37-13 win over the Chicago Bears. The decade ended with

Quick and dirty with the Saints! What do the Saints know about quick and dirty?
[Jameis Winston has entered the thread]
A lot. The Saints know a lot about quick and dirty.

The problem is, even three games in, I’m not sure who the real Saints are.
1 - They played a bad Falcons team, looked bad, and won.
2 - They played an allegedly good Buccaneers team, looked good, and lost*.
3 - They played a questionable Panthers team and lost.

*This Bucs game is why I have a difficult time evaluating the Saints. I don’t think the Bucs are a great team this year, Good but not great. I think they are as much reputation as quality. This matters a lot for evaluating the Saints because in a preview, I will forgive losses against great teams, but I don’t know if the Bucs are good or great. Add to that, the game swung significantly when Marshon Lattimore was ejected.

So, are the Saints a good team that had a bump against the Panthers in a divisional game on the road? Or are they a bad team who is just a furious comeback vs a bad Falcons team away from being 0-3?

So the trend of the team is fuzzy. Here is a trend that is not fuzzy: their opponents’ No. 1 receiver matched up against Lattimore:
Drake London: 5 catches / 74 yards / 0 TDs
Mike Evans: 3 catches / 61 yards / 0 TDs
DJ Moore: 1 catch / 2 yards

That Drake London performance stands out, a rookie in his first game had success against Lattimore? Or did he? An example from that game:



Here, Pitts is lined up in a WR bunch and Lattimore follows him down the seam. The Falcons were basically lining up and using Pitts as a WR (note, I don’t like this for the Falcons because it gets Pitts on guys like Lattimore instead of guys like Jordan Hicks). But let’s correct that list:

Drake London: 5 catches / 74 yards / 0 TDs
Kyle Pitts: 2 catches / 19 yards / 0 TDs
Mike Evans: 3 catches / 61 yards / 0 TDs
DJ Moore: 1 catch / 2 yards

Saints Key to the game: Marshon Lattimore is the Saints' most important player. The Saints offense isn’t elite, and Lattimore allows the defense to play an easier game, taking a receiver away. It will be interesting to see what kind of performance Justin Jefferson has to add to this list.

Key stat for the Saints, turnovers:
Vs Falcons: 1 (Win)
Vs Bucs: 5 (Loss)
Vs Panthers: 3 (Loss)

Turnovers are always key, but the question is how you get them. The Saints game vs the Bucs was the highlight here. Winston was managing the game, then things got intense with a fight and the energy went way up. Winston responded by throwing three picks, punctuated by this gem of a pick-6:



This had no chance. Winston is the epitome of a try harder, not smarter guy and the Vikings will need to take advantage of this.

Let’s go back to the quick and dirtiness of this game, Winston isn’t good at dirty, a scheme can beat him. This game may be dirtier than some because both teams will lose a full day traveling to London, that's good for the Vikings because the key to the game is....

How to Beat the Saints
Confuse Jameis Winston. Lattimore and the Saints defense can keep this game competitive, but they aren’t so elite that they can overcome giving the opponents extra possessions. The deep shell the Vikings have been playing may be an asset in this game as Winston often gets burned trying to go deep too aggressively. I also don’t think Eric Kendricks and Harrison Smith are the players they once were, but this game should play to their strengths – if one of them can get into the right spot in coverage once or twice, cutting off a passing lane can be enough to swing a win. And they have both always had good hands to turn a pass deflected into a big play.

Quick and dirty with the Saints! What do the Saints know about quick and dirty? [Jameis Winston has entered the thread] A lot. The Saints know a lot about quick and dirty. The

Nearly every player that entered professional football from 1960-66 had a decision to make. NFL? Or AFL? Each league had a draft during those years. Most players were selected by both leagues. There was a competition for the players and it turned into a bidding war between the leagues. It was a bidding war that was a big reason, if not the main reason, for the merger agreement in June of 1966. The older league won most of the bidding battles over draft picks but the newer league won enough to get better. It was a tough, draining seven years for both leagues. The merger agreement was a welcome event for pretty much everybody but Al Davis. He wanted the war to continue. So much so, that he continued a personal war with pretty much everyone for the rest of his life. This isn’t about Davis. This is about the 1961 draft of the Minnesota Vikings and it’s remarkable similarity to the 1961 draft of the Boston Patriots. 

The Minnesota Vikings were the older league’s newest team in 1961. Being a new team wasn’t much of a hindrance in any bidding battles over draft picks with the various AFL teams. Everything was new in the AFL. Simply being in the NFL gave the Vikings an edge over any AFL team. About a year ago, I was curious as to which AFL teams the Vikings competed with to sign their top draft picks during those war years. Of course, I started with the 1961 draft and I was immediately surprised by what I found. 

Minnesota Vikings 1961 Draft

1. Tommy Mason, RB, Tulane
2. Rip Hawkins, LB, North Carolina
3. Fran Tarkenton, QB, Georgia

Boston Patriots 1961 Draft

1. Tommy Mason, RB, Tulane
2. Rip Hawkins, LB, North Carolina
3. Dan LaRose, T, Missouri
4. Mike Zeno, G, Virginia Tech
5. Fran Tarkenton, QB, Georgia

I was stunned that I’d never heard about the similarities between the 1961 drafts of the Vikings and the Patriots. Tommy Mason, Rip Hawkins, and Fran Tarkenton were the gems of the Vikings’ first draft. What are the chances that all three are also the gems of another team’s draft? There are just too many variables for this to be a coincidence. My immediate thought was that the lazy Patriots had copied the drafting of my beloved Vikings. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the case. The first six rounds of the 1961 AFL Draft were held November 21-22, 1960. The 1961 NFL Draft was held December 27-28, 1960. If there was any draft copying being done it was the Vikings doing the copying. 

The NFL draft will always be a crapshoot. It was even more so in the 1960s. Scouting and player evaluation wasn’t as thorough or as sophisticated. The drafts were held towards the end of the regular season. There wasn’t time for thorough or sophisticated scouting even if the teams had the means and desire to do so. As a result of the competition for players, there were also some strange tactics taken by both leagues during the seven-year bidding war. The strangest was probably the practice of “babysitting.” Both leagues called it babysitting but it was often more like kidnapping. Teams would “hide” players from the other league as they tried to hammer out the details of a contract. If the league’s were willing to go to those extremes to sign players, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the NFL assigned their newest team to go after the top draft picks of one of the AFL’s teams. I’m not sure the purpose of such a strategy. Maybe the NFL didn’t think that the Patriots had much of a chance to sign Mason, Hawkins, and Tarkenton and wanted to give the expansion team a boost. Who knows? I just know that the similarities between the 1961 drafts of the Vikings and Patriots feel more intentional than coincidental.

I always got the feeling that the NFL wanted to win every signing battle. The AFL just wanted to win enough of them. That sort of balance tends to happen when a new league is trying to gain footing with an older, very established league. 

With the similarities between the 1961 drafts of the Vikings and Patriots, I was curious if there were similarities in the drafts of other teams. I found these.

Dallas Cowboys 1961 Draft

1. Bob Lilly, DT, TCU
2. E.J. Holub, C/LB, Texas Tech

Dallas Texans 1961 Draft

1. E.J. Holub, C/LB, Texas Tech
2. Bob Lilly, DT, TCU

and 

1961 San Francisco 49ers Draft

1. Jimmy Johnson, CB, UCLA
1. Billy Kilmer, QB, UCLA

1961 San Diego Chargers 

4. Jimmy Johnson, CB, UCLA
5. Billy Kilmer, QB, UCLA

Unlike the drafts of the Vikings and Patriots, both of these examples seem to be geographical/regionally inspired.

Perhaps this little draft curiosity between the Vikings and Patriots is something that intrigues only me. I was certainly amazed when I discovered it. All that really matters is that the Vikings signed the first three draft picks in the team’s history. It’s simply a footnote that it was the Patriots that they beat to sign each one. Tommy Mason, Rip Hawkins, and Fran Tarkenton were franchise fixtures for the Vikings’ first several years. 







Nearly every player that entered professional football from 1960-66 had a decision to make. NFL? Or AFL? Each league had a draft during those years. Most players were selected by both leagues. There

After a dismal defeat to the Eagles on Monday night, the Vikings roll into town with a 1-1 record. Losing this one at home against the Lions would be a sizeable blow, even if the Lions appear to be good enough to not make this a 'trap' game. Will the Vikings do what they usually do against Detroit?



Injury Report

Vikings

S Smith - Out
CB Booth - Out
LB Kendricks - Questionable

Lions

LG Jackson - Out
C Ragnow - Questionable
DE Hutchinson - Questionable
DE Cominsky - Out
RB Swift - Questionable
TE Hockenson - Questionable


Line: Vikings -6
60% of bets are on the Lions

*My Thoughts*

I am currently out of town and have not had the time to make a proper analysis, so I will skip to the prediction.


Prediction: Vikings 26, Lions 21

After the consensus overreacted to a win over the Packers, I think the appropriate response is to not overreact to the Eagles loss. Cousins and the Vikings generally play much better at home on the noon slate against a weak defense, and I think the defense will be in for a better week than expected even against an improved Lions offense.After a dismal defeat to the Eagles on Monday night, the Vikings roll into town with a 1-1 record. Losing this one at home against the Lions would be a sizeable blow, even if the Lions appear to be

Lions Mode, GO! I’m gonna eat this preview up without even chewing! This thing is coming at you like a freight train from that Metallica song! Now’s the time to think about winning, there’s going to be more words about winning than there are words bowling in the %$^&*@# Bible.

Why, yes; I did watch Dan Campbell on Hard Knocks, why do you ask?

The Lions are like two completely different teams. First there is a finesse team that plays offense that looks for creative ways to cover up a lack of talent. Second, there is a defense that can generally be compared to a pack of dogs chasing down a bowl of mashed potatoes and gravy. The question is, which of those two things are more interesting for a Purple Path Forward?

First a brief look at the Lions’ offense. Hot take alert, the Lions offense wasn’t that dominant vs Washington. What do you mean? A 22-0 first half is dominant!!

Which of these drives impresses you most / least:
#1 - 3 and out
#2 - Settling for a field goal following a 49-yard pass play
#3 – 5 play turnover on downs that started with a 50-yard run
#4 –31-yard touchdown drive
#5 – 28-yard field goal drive
#6 – 9 play touchdown drive with no play longer than 12 yards
#7 – Another 3 and out
#8 – A final 3 and out, just for good measure.

The Lions had exactly one impressive drive in the first half; an effective, 9 play, 77-yard drive. But because of the Commanders’ general ineptitude, this resulted in a 22-0 lead. They needed Carson Wentz to fumble out of the end zone and get a 52-yard kick return to get things going.

They might not be the Bills or Chiefs, but they do look like a functioning NFL team, and they did have some big plays that just didn’t happen to align with their scoring drives. Take a look at the two explosive plays they had in that first half.

First is a 49-yard catch and run by Amon-Ra St. Brown (#14)



The play design worked, they fooled the Washington secondary so they had three guys following a decoy receiver. This isn’t a tough throw for Goff, St. Brown picks up more than 30 yards after the catch. St. Brown also broke a big run on a jet sweep later in the game, not a deep route.

Second is a D'Andre Swift 50-yard run:



Also nothing really fancy on this play. I count at least three Washington defenders who have a decent shot at stopping this play swiftly, however as D'Andre came through the hole he was just too …. What’s the word here… D'Andre was too fast? Nah, not really pure foot speed. D'Andre was elusive? Also wrong as it’s mostly straight line. D'Andre was speedy? No, who writes “speedy”, that’s dumb. I know!!!! D'Andre was quick!!! The perfect descriptor for this play.

Swift had a very similar play against the Eagles where he just ran straight between guys for 50 yards:



Looking at the Lions' first two games, one thing stands out: For all the points they have scored, the explosive plays have come from runners getting through the linebackers and into the secondary, not throwing the ball over people.

Key Point for Vikings Defense: Goff hasn’t shown that he can beat teams with a deep passing game, the Lions have schemed guys open underneath and relied on Swift’s wiggle to get free. The Vikings need to know the abilities and limits of their opponent. They need to close down Swift aggressively and take away the short passing game. Close off the short stuff and take your chances with Goff throwing deep; the deep shell the Vikings played against the Eagles will get the Vikings killed in this game. Kendricks and Hicks will need to be sure tacklers

While that’s an interesting lesson for the Vikings defense, the real key on how to beat the Lions comes for the Vikings offensive side of the ball.

The Lions are aggressive on play calling; they will go for it on fourth down and blitz a lot. They are also aggressive hitters. They will hit low, late, lead with their heads and any other time they can to disrupt their opponents. The Lions defense walks a very fine line between aggressive and dirty.

The best graphic I can come up with is to chart how many teams each player has blitzed; this chart includes all non-DL/Edge player blitzes for both the Lions and Vikings:



This discrepancy is crazy, especially as a Vikings fan who is used to seeing Harrison Smith creep up to the line and blitz with some regularity. The Lions blitz from everywhere, and they do so way more than the Vikings. That puts Anzalone on pace for 136 blitzes this year (for context, in 2021: Kendricks led the Vikings with 67; Devin White led the league with 133)

This is where opponent scouting comes into play. I’m not talking about play tendencies, formation usage or player skill sets. Kevin O’Connell will have to realize and prepare his players to face a team that plays with a fundamentally different culture than the one the Vikings use (and also different from the Packers or Eagles).

It’s hard to get a still frame image of an aggressive pass rush, but this is close. This is a 9-yard sack by the Lions:



You can see the Lions’ strategy in effect: everyone goes after the quarterback as hard and as fast as you can. The line of scrimmage is the 30; every pass rusher is at least 7 yards into the backfield. Washington was unprepared to counter this in the first half. They didn’t keep extra blockers back. The running back was starting to leak out to the top for a check down, but it was too slow, and his blocking wasn’t effective. The Vikings will need to be prepared for this uniquely aggressive defense. 

How to Beat the Lions
The Vikings have to do two things.

First, they need to embrace the opponent they are facing - and this has nothing to do with scheme or tendencies. They need to know that undisciplined aggression is coming. If they think the Lions are playing by the same rules as the Packers, they are wrong and there will be plays where the Vikings look unprepared.



Dan Campbell would definitely do this.

Second, the first thing does NOT mean they need to match Detroit’s intensity. In fact, if they do, they will probably lose – that’s not the kind of team the Vikings are.

The Vikings need to remember, football isn’t about hitting the other guy harder, it’s about getting the ball to where the other guys aren’t. Aidan Hutchinson is a high motor guy with one speed: “Quarterback!”  Great, throw a screen over him. The Vikings need to be prepared with protection. If the Vikings win, I’m sure there will be a big play where Cook or Mattison make a great blitz pickup to get Kirk an extra second.

Bottom line: the Vikings have the players to win this game. The Lions are better than they have been, I think their biggest improvement has been that they recognize their own strengths and weaknesses and play to them. The Vikings will need to do the same to win this game.


Also check out this piece:

Week 3 - Lions at Vikings Matchup by the NumbersLions Mode, GO! I’m gonna eat this preview up without even chewing! This thing is coming at you like a freight train from that Metallica song! Now’s the time to think about winning, there’s going

After week 2, PFF is in dead last at predicting the winner of Vikings' matchups.  They had the Vikings as the better overall team by quite a bit, and clearly that was not the case Monday night. To be fair though, none of the other stats were that much better, although DVOA was the only metric predicting the defense was not as good as the final score in week 1 said they were.  

Moving forward and looking the matchups with the Lions, things aren't as bleak as many would expect now, but much worse than most would have guessed at the beginning of the season.  Starting off at the drive stats, the Lions are surprisingly very good offensively.

Offense




Defense




Offensively, Detroit appears to struggle to maintain drives and is living off of the big play despite scoring a lot. They are worse than the Vikings in TOP and three-and-outs per drive, putting their defense in a bad spot, something Vikings' fans should be very familiar with after last year.  Speaking of that, if the Vikings don't turn things around soon, their propensity to go three-and-out can no longer be blamed on baby Kubes as they drop to 26th in that stat after a solid outing week 1. The Vikings have also plummeted in the red zone rankings, scoring a miserable 2.86 per trip.  Fortunately for the Vikings, the Lions are terrible in that stat defensively, and the Vikings should have success there this week.

Defensively, the Vikings are actually doing a solid job at preventing the other team from scoring.  A lot of that has to do with their success in the red zone, forcing FGs or stopping teams on 4th down.  The Lions just plain suck all around, and based on the drive stats, the Vikings should score a lot of points on this team, even if they give up a lot of yards.


DVOA

Offense




Defense





Surprisingly, DVOA thinks the Vikings' rushing offense is pretty good. Hopefully KOC realizes it is a good idea to run the football against a team that struggles to stop the run this week, because he sure didn't figure that out last week. The pass offense is dreadful.

Defensively, let's hope Campbell doesn't realize it is a good idea to run the football against a team that struggles to stop the run, because the Lions are apparently great at running the football and the Vikings might be the worst in the NFL at stopping the run. I do not think this defense is 30th overall, and I still expect it to be top 10 at some point this season with the talent on the D. 

PFF



PFF thinks the Vikings are superior to the Lions at everything but catching the football and covering the football. Which would be great except PFF was so wrong about last week, and coverage and receiving, are the two best PFF grades for predicting the winners of football games historically. I am very surprised to see them so poorly graded at pass blocking.  That is really, really bad and the Vikings' pass rushers should have a field day.  

Overall, the numbers say this game should be close. DVOA and drive stats say the Lions' offense is better, while drive stats and PFF say the Vikings' defense is better.  PFF is the only stat that has the Vikings' offense superior to the Lions.  I am very concerned about the Lions running all over the Vikings, but I think the offense should be able to keep it close against what is statistically a very bad defense.  Since this game is at home, and since the Lions are the Lions, I'll predict that the Vikings win in a shoot-out.  After week 2, PFF is in dead last at predicting the winner of Vikings' matchups.  They had the Viki

After the first game of the new regime was a roaring success, the Vikings have a MNF battle with the Eagles. With the NFC looking weaker than usual, this matchup could have implications come playoff time. Could the Vikings get off to a 2-0 start with wins against two 2021 playoff teams?



Line: Eagles -2.5

SuperSim Calculated Line: Eagles -1.5



Injury Report

Eagles
none

Vikings
CB Booth Jr. - Out

*My Thoughts*

I'm very high on the Eagles this year, and you can see that by the amount of green on their depth chart. One issue is that while the roster doesn't have any glaring issues, they also lack stars / players with game-breaking talent. Thankfully for them they landed AJ Brown, a top 10 receiver who when healthy is a beast and worth more than just the single 1st round pick they flipped for him. Now Hurts has a solid set of weapons to throw to, including the lightweight Devonta Smith, underrated Dallas Goedert, and the occasional deep threat Quez Watkins. Add in Hurts' ability to break off runs (scoring a whopping 10 TDs last year), it just adds another weapon and should make them a very competent redzone team. The running game is fine, as Sanders has never quite lived up to his billing but he is very efficient with the touches he gets. Gainwell is competent in the passing game but underwhelming between the tackles, while the 5' 6" Boston Scott is curiously used as their goal line back (7 TDs last year).

The ceiling on this offense will rely on Hurts' ability to develop as a passer and become more than just a first-read QB. He will be helped by an offensive line which is ranked by some sites as the best in the NFL. Jordan Mailata, a former 7th rounder born in Australia, has been a relevation that was much needed after Jason Peters moving on and 1st rounder Andre Dillard busting. His play at LT has allowed Lane Johnson to stay at RT - he seems poised to go down as one of the best RTs of this era of football. LG Dickerson is a sophomore 2nd rounder whose main concern was injuries, but so far has been a successful starter, though he's been questionable as a pass blocker. Kelce is still balling out despite turning 35 soon, and is a monster as a run blocker. Seumalo is the weakest link, but he was on pace to have a career year in 2021 before an injury ended his season. Most teams would love to have a guy like him as the 'worst'.

Defensively, the Eagles should be better than they were last week, as the Lions posted 35 points, 181 rushing yards, and only allowed one sack. They also lost DE Derek Barnett (who was slated to be more of a rotational guy than a starter), and now their pass rush looks to be vulnerable. Graham and Sweat make a nice duo but they could use more firepower. On the bench they only have unproven talent, but that is not the case at DT. Cox may be past his prime and doesn't defend against the run as well as he used to, but he is still a credible pass rusher. Javon Hargrave, meanwhile, has also become a much better pass rusher than run stuffer since coming over from Pittsburgh. That leaves 1st rounder Jordan Davis, a freakish athlete with insane upside, but as of now there is no tape of him being a consistent pressure creator. For now, he'll just stuff the run effectively.

Philly's linebackers have been questionable for a few years, but they've tried to address it recently. TJ Edwards is a UDFA holdover who total 130 combined tackles last year, earning PFF's praises. Meanwhile they've added Kyzir White, a solid 3-4 ILB from the Chargers, and Haason Reddick, a 10+ sack LB the past two seasons despite not being a 3-4 OLB. Reddick had zero pressures vs the Lions, but I assume he is part of the plan to generate a pass rush. They also spent a 3rd rounder on Nakobe Dean, a player that many draftniks had a 1st round grade on - he may factor into their plans soon.

The Eagles' CB room looks good on paper - Darius Slay and James Bradberry have both been #1 CBs in their prime, but as they've aged, they've been a bit up and down. Avonte Maddox is an underrated slot CB who is one of the better ones out there. At safety, the Eagles opted to axe Anthony Harris and are giving former Viking Marcus Epps a full-time role. They then traded for CJ Gardner-Johnson, a hybrid SS/slot CB. PFF hasn't loved him, but he's a splashy playmaker who will have some lapses in coverage.

Prediction: Eagles 28, Vikings 23

Despite their thrashing of the Packers, I think the Vikings will run into some problems against this Philly defense on the road. Meanwhile, I have concerns with our run defense trying to handle the multi-layered Philly run game lead by a beastly O-line.

That's all I've got, any thoughts?

Other Vikings at Eagles content this week: 

Purple Path Forward - Pluck the Eagles

Week 2 - Vikings at Eagles Matchup by the NumbersAfter the first game of the new regime was a roaring success, the Vikings have a MNF battle with the Eagles. With the NFC looking weaker than usual, this matchup could have implications come playoff

The Vikings play the Eagles this week, so, naturally, I’ll take this time to talk about the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens. The Eagles go and hang 38 on the Lions and suddenly they are part of the offensive royalty of the NFL, so it’s only fair to put Jalen Hurts in the same category as Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson and see how Hurts stacks up against the grown up mobile quarterback.

Midwinter-Technicality: The Lions offense actually outscored the Eagles and the Eagles won because the Lions lack discipline and gifted them a pick 6. Surely that is taken into account in the narrative?
Reality: I can’t see how that’s relevant.
MidwinterTechnicality: It’s actually highly …
Reality:[fingers in ears] LALALALA

That settled, since Hurts is now a Green Giant, here’s where we start, a lesson on running QBs: It’s their ability to throw the ball that determines their ability to win. This is true for others and true for Jalen Hurts:



Because of this I want to compare Hurts, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson based on passing ability only. First, I had to decide what a useful sample set of games is. One game performance can be a fluke, but for young players, an entire season doesn’t allow you to see development over time, I settled on five games – if a player can sustain performance for five games, that’s enough for me to call it a trend.

I looked at a five-game moving average for passer rating for each of these players over the start of their careers. At any point on the chart below, the measurement is the player’s average passer rating over their last five games. That means any movement up or down is only achieved by sustaining performance for five games. (Note: Jackson and Hurts trends start later because they were not immediate starters, and the “end of year two” isn’t exactly 32 games because they all missed some starts).



Jalen Hurts vs Lamar Jackson – It’s safe to say that, to this point in his career, Jalen Hurts has not demonstrated anything like Lamar Jackson. That peak prior to the end of Jackson’s 2nd season represents an eight-game stretch where he averaged a 123.5 passer rating. Hurts has never approached Jackson’s highs.

Jalen Hurts vs Josh Allen – This is much more interesting because their tracks for games 7-19 mirror each other so closely. And, the narratives are the same: Stefon Diggs went to Buffalo and made Josh Allen great; now A.J. Brown has gone to Philadelphia to make Jalen Hurts exactly as great (Brown had 10 catches for 150 yards in Week 1, see how clear it is!)

However, near the end of their second season, Josh Allen appears to start to track higher; remember, this trend is a five-week average, so it takes several games to build up a difference. I need to ask: is that difference between Hurts and Allen from games 19-28 significant? Let’s look at their best stretches in that time.

Allen’s best run was a seven-game stretch from Week 7-13 of his second year where he had:
- Average passer rating of 101.2
- 4 of 7 games over 100 passer rating
- A record of 5-2

Compare that to Hurts' best stretch last year, also seven games:
- Average passer rating of 86.9
- 4 of 7 games over 100 passer rating
- A record of 5-2

Hurts was only dragged down by one terrible game in that stretch, but otherwise it’s close on passer rating. Adding in actual production, not just passer rating over those seven game stretches:

Allen: 123/203 (60.7%) for 1,469 yards, 11 touchdowns, 1 interception
Hurts: 91/150 (60.7%) for 1,111 yards, 6 touchdown, 5 interceptions

That’s not too close, Allen outperformed Hurts by a wide margin.
Conclusion: by the start of his third season, Allen had started to show signs of carrying a team before Diggs arrived. Hurts has not done that. He is still very streaky and prone to the bottom falling out.

Time to look at actual football!

One game does not make a trend, but what I want to see is:
1) How does Hurts look on the field, is he the 75-passer rating loser or the 90-passer rating winner?
2) The Eagles built a huge early lead: how?
3) The Lions clawed back, how can the Eagles defense be exploited?

Turns out the second and third questions are related. The Eagles build a huge lead off the back of Detroit's mistakes. When the Lions weren’t screwing up, they were having success countering an aggressive defense. There wasn’t anything complicated, the Lions just moved one way and ran counter to the flow. The Lions were also successful getting receivers onto linebackers and secondary players just long enough to spring D'Andre Swift for a good gain. Look at all the blockers on defenders on this 4th quarter run:



Mismatches in the secondary and using an athletic line to open running holes is mostly what the Vikings want to do too. The lesson the Vikings need to take from Week 1 is that the Eagles defense can be beaten without forcing plays that could cause mistakes. Cousins' patience is a great asset in this game. Because of this, I think the key is going to be the Vikings defense against the Eagles offense.

Here are a few highlight plays to try and answer that more complex question about Hurts.

Answer 1, what kind of passer is Hurts? A jittery one. Hurts can make some great throws with a clean pocket, but he mixes in some really bad-for-no-reason throws. He buys himself extra attempts converting first downs by scrambling. The key to stopping him is disciplined pressure. Hurts did not show anything that suggested he could beat pressure with his arm, he can only beat it with his legs. As soon as there was pressure, Hurts was no longer attempting to throw at all. This went a few ways.

Step 1: Pressure killed the Eagles' passing game. When the Lions were aggressive with blitzes, Hurts didn’t burn them in the air. This play was a simple corner blitz that Hurts was completely unaware of that resulted in a sack.



Step 2: Contain. Hurts likes to escape to the outside. The Lions were constantly going all out to get Hurts off his spot. This didn’t result in completions, but a lot of 8-12 yard runs like the next image. It's like the Lions didn't even know that Hurts could run and just chased him like a .... [hmm  ... need a creative analogy here]  ... I'll go with chased him like a Lion chasing an Eagle, only the Lion doesn't know the Eagle can fly.  


Side note: In the play above, that's Aidan Hutchinson coming through the middle right at Hurts.  This could bode well for Za'Darius Smith getting pressure up the middle.  

Step 3: Hurts has a sixth sense for knowing when a scramble won’t work. On this play, Hurts is running and is dead to rights. At the last second, Hurts just sort of shot-puts the ball in the general direction of the sideline, incomplete pass, sack avoided. There isn’t much to do about this, Hurts seemed to be really good at folding instantly and relinquishing the ball in a panic, much like a small child confronted with a monster. When this happens, know it’s a win for the defense because this is what successfully stopping a Hurts run looks like.



Hurts will hit some throws. He’s had some great ones, but they haven’t been consistent. His scrambles generate 1st downs that give him more chances to find that big throw. Chances are, the Vikings would rather bring pressure and force Hurts into quick choices than play a lot of coverage and leave Hurts time.

How to stop Hurts: Get him off his spot as quickly as possible, then keep someone in front of him.

How to beat the Eagles: First the Vikings must get pressure, blitzing is fine – even good, because Hurts is so quick to pull the ball down. The key will be guys on the edges keeping contain on Hurts. The Vikings have a few guys that should be good at this: Cam Dantzler is aggressive in run support, this is the bread and butter of Harrison Smith, I loved what I saw from Akayleb Evans in run support in the preseason. Eric Kendricks should be a useful piece watching Hurts as well. If necessary, I think it would even be worth using a spy on Hurts on some plays.

Wild Card: Lewis Cine is in line to play, but how much? A fast-to-the-ball, hard-hitting, sure tackler lurking near the line of scrimmage is exactly the profile of a player that could spy, cover checkdowns, and stuff scrambles to help shut down Hurts on gameday.

Other Vikings-Eagles content this week:

Vikings at Eagles Depth Chart Preview 2022

Week 2 - Vikings at Eagles Matchup by the Numbers

The Vikings play the Eagles this week, so, naturally, I’ll take this time to talk about the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens. The Eagles go and hang 38 on the Lions and suddenly they are part of

This is the first in a weekly series where I will look at the Vikings' current rankings in a number of advanced stats and how those statistics match up against the upcoming opponent.  

First up, drive stats:

Offense



Defense



Not surprising to see the Vikings look great in almost every category here.  Offensively, for the first time in a long time the Vikings actually did really well with TOP on offense.  The ball control Zimmer always wanted was on full display Sunday, and funny, the defense benefitted greatly from it. Speaking of the defense, I am wondering if the pattern of giving up a lot of yards per drive while not very many points will continue or if Green Bay is just terrible in the red zone?

From a matchup perspective, Philly was better against the Lions offensively than the Vikings were against the Packers, but the Vikings' defense was significantly better.  As we look at DVOA, that changes a bit

DVOA Offense 



DVOA Defense



DVOA is not very kind to the Vikings' defense which makes a little sense since it deals more with yardage than points, and the Vikings were below average at stopping the Packers from moving the football. But 18th, though?  That seems really low and is a bit concerning that last week's success was a bit of a fluke.  For some context, DVOA had the Vikings' defense as the 16th best overall last year.  Offensively, DVOA loved the Vikings.

PFF Grades



PFF believes the Vikings are the superior team in the two most important categories in terms of predicting wins: receiving and coverage.  It is interesting that both teams' weaknesses, according to the PFF, match up with the other team's strengths.  Run defense is a weakness for the Vikings, while running is a strength for the Eagles.  Pass blocking is a weakness for the Vikings, while pass rushing was the Eagles' strength last week.  

Overall, the numbers, based on a very small sample size, give the Vikings the edge in this one and point to both teams running all over the other.  The Vikings need to pass block better (second-worst pass blocking efficiency in week 1) and they should win.  

Other Vikings at Eagles content this week:

Purple Path Forward - Pluck the Eagles

Vikings at Eagles Depth Chart Preview 2022



This is the first in a weekly series where I will look at the Vikings' current rankings in a number of advanced stats and how those statistics match up against the upcoming opponent

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zq0IPIQEUAo

Episode 72!

Episode 72! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMinAhRVetQ

The Purple Path Forward will take a look at upcoming games this season - what opponents’ trends are and how the Vikings might exploit matchups for a win. Since I haven’t seen what the Packers will do in 2022, I have two strategies to use to get an idea of what the Packers might do in this game: look at what they are good at historically, then down a 32-ounce bottle of cheddar cheese flavored Gatorade to put myself in a Packers’ mindset.

I’ll put this first and justify things later TLDR: The higher scoring the game is, the more I like the Vikings chances.

Here’s what I know: Since 2021, the Packers' defense has gotten better and the Packers' offense has gotten worse.

The defense gets Jaire Alexander back and adds two first-round draft picks (Quay Walker and Devonte Wyatt); and even though I expect Za’Darius Smith to help the Vikings, his loss won’t sting the Packers much since he only played 18 snaps in their first and last game.

Compare that to the Packers' offense – most of the talk has been about Davante Adams leaving, but I am just as interested in Marquez Valdes-Scantling leaving. Even if Bakhtiari comes back, Royce Newman (left guard) and Billy Turner (80% of snaps at right tackle) are gone; so at minimum there are guys shuffling positions and doing something different than last year.

To look at how the Vikings counter the Packers, I’m going to start with the Packers' offense; what are they best at? I compared Kirk Cousins to Aaron Rodgers' passer rating across different down and distances to see where Rodgers excels:



Here’s the thing Rodgers is best at: take a quick look deep and if the play is there, take a shot; if not, check down to a short completion. It really only takes one or two deep connections to swing the entire game. This works great if the distance-to-go is relatively manageable. Look at those highlighted passer ratings, especially 2nd-and-4 when a check down is a fine play to keep a drive alive. There’s no urgency there so Rodgers can always just take the easiest possible way out that requires very little skill but still makes him look good, just like hosting a game show.

This “look quick for a deep shot” matters a lot for this first game because of the Packers’ offseason changes. I need to figure out who is going to be on the receiving end of those game-changing plays. To start, I was curious: who was successful with those deep balls in 2021? I went back and checked what the longest reception was for each of the Packers' top four receivers in 2021. I highlighted which receiver had the longest reception in each game to see who was the deep guy most frequently:


*Lazard gets no credit for being the deep guy in a game where many of the Packers starters sat and tight end Josiah Deguara had a 63 yard catch.

Knowing that deep balls are critical to the Packers' strategy, this chart shows why I think the Valdez-Scantling departure matters a lot more than the coverage it has received: Valdez-Scantling was good at being that deep dude. He had fewer games played than Lazard, and the deep threat totals aren’t even close. Even if Lazard can be an actual WR1 (I’m not convinced, but for the sake of argument), who is going to catch the deep, game-changing passes now? Cobb? Cobb was getting deep as much as Lazard in fewer games. Let’s look at how Cobb broke that 54-yard play in week 12:



Just have the defender tackle the wrong team! That won't work; Cobb's not the deep guy.

Maybe Sammy Watkins? He’s been good for about one deep bomb a year playing with Patrick Mahomes. No, this explains why the Packers were so desperate to let the Vikings de-pants them in the draft day trade up to get Christian Watson despite the fact that he only played against future engineers, accountants, and IT professionals at NDSU. Watson is at least fast enough to do that one thing the Packers really need to flip the field.

If the deep passes aren’t there, the Packers' offense will be way less explosive. The Vikings definitely can be explosive; this means that the higher scoring the game is, the more I like the Vikings' chances. Rodgers can always hit a deep ball if there’s a breakdown in coverage. But with fewer guys experienced at forcing those breakdowns, they are less likely.

The question then becomes: can the Vikings' offense make the game high-scoring and explosive? I think it comes down to one player for the Packers: Eric Stokes. Stokes was fine for a rookie corner last year, but he got absolutely shredded by the trio of Jefferson, Thielen and Osborn in the Vikings versus Packers matchup. I’ll assume Jaire Alexander is back and just as good as before, but one corner can’t cover all the Vikings' weapons (or even just Justin Jefferson). So Stokes will need to play well covering a second guy. The Packers' safeties are serviceable at best, so if they are under siege all game trying to pick up mistakes in coverage, the Vikings' offense should be absolutely stoked to have a huge day.

This doesn’t take into account changes the Packers have made - specifically if the two first-round picks on defense will provide an improvement in coverage to stop the Vikings after Cousins hung 341 yards with three touchdowns on them last season.

Here are a few summarized comments about Quay Walker:



So he's supposed to be a linebacker who is good against the run but erratic in coverage.

Then the Packers added Devonte Wyatt with the other first-round pick, who looks like a rotational defensive lineman. I like Dalvin Cook a lot this year, but the Packers' front seven was already good and they added more to it with Walker and Wyatt. I don’t expect Cook to have a great game in week 1 - meaning that the Packers loaded up on stopping something the Vikings don’t really care about all that much.

How To Beat The Packers
The Packers' front seven does look formidable against the ground game. Cook isn’t going to win this game (or if he does, the Vikings are probably annihilating the Pack). The Vikings need to cause confusion, mismatches and blown coverages by Eric Stokes (and likely slot corner Rasul Douglas) to put the secondary under huge pressure. If the Vikings' passing game can consistently beat Stokes and Douglas, they should win the game. I don’t think the Packers' offense has the horses to win a shootout. This is an exciting test for the new offensive scheme right out of the gate.
The Purple Path Forward will take a look at upcoming games this season - what opponents’ trends are and how the Vikings might exploit matchups for a win. Since I haven’t seen what the Packers will

I just noticed that this tale of a certain missing trophy was discussed on the message board about a year ago. I guess this is a re-visit.

The NFL had a championship trophy before the Lombardi Trophy. That’s really no surprise as there were 46 league champions before the AFL and NFL got together. Actually, there were two trophies. From 1920-33, there was no championship game. The NFL champion was the team with the best regular season record. The champion wasn’t officially crowned until a vote by the league owners. That was mostly a formality. Controversy clouded a couple of the champions. That often happens when it comes to votes and sports. The NFL champion during this early era of the league was “sometimes” awarded the Brunswick-Blake Collender Cup. That’s a whole other story. This story is about the league’s next trophy. In 1934, the NFL had the brilliant idea of playing a championship game. They needed a trophy for the winner of the new “big” game. That trophy was the Ed Thorp Memorial Trophy. Like hockey’s Stanley Cup, it was a traveling trophy. Each league champion kept the trophy for a year. Great. At least it would’ve been great if the Green Bay Packers weren’t involved. The entitled team from Wisconsin won the Thorp more than any other team. They won it in 1936, 1938, 1944, 1961, 1962, 1965, 1966, and 1967. That’s too damn many times. It was so many times that the Packers would come to assume rights to the Thorp that they simply didn’t and don’t have.

The trouble with the Thorp started in the 1960s. The Lombardi Packers should be to blame. Instead, history would put the blame on the Minnesota Vikings. The Ed Thorp Memorial Trophy disappeared about the time of the full merger of the NFL and AFL in 1970. With that merger there was no longer a need for the Thorp. The Vikings were the last NFL champion before the full merger so they were the last team to hold the Thorp. Since the trophy had disappeared, the Vikings must have lost it. That was the story and it held. Despite an incredible lack of evidence, the story held for so long that it became fact. The Vikings lost the Thorp and as a result they were cursed. This Thorp curse is the reason for Super Bowl losses, big game frustrations, close calls, missed field goals, and an empty trophy case. The curse of the Ed Thorp Memorial Trophy. 

In 2019, Minneapolis Star-Tribune’s Mark Craig wrote about the Ed Thorp Trophy in advance of the 50th Anniversary celebration of the Vikings’ 1969 NFL Championship. He asked a few of the members of that team about the trophy. Here are some of the responses. 

“Ed who?” - Gary Larsen

”I ain’t never seen it.” - Lonnie Warwick

”I don’t even know what you’re referring to.” - Bud Grant

There’s a simple reason for those responses. The Vikings didn’t know anything about the trophy because they’d never seen it. 

In 2018, the Packers discovered that the team had the trophy all along. Not only did they have it in some forgotten closet or box, they had it in three pieces. Packers historian Cliff Christl wrote about how wonderful it was to have the trophy again. The Thorp had been put back together and is sitting in the team’s museum. Christl is out of his mind if he thinks the Packers should keep the trophy. This was meant to be a traveling trophy but it didn’t do much traveling in the 1960s. Their five titles that decade granted the Packers five years with the Thorp. It didn’t grant them an eternity with it. Actually, it wasn’t in Green Bay for the entirety of the 1960s. There’s evidence that the Chicago Bears received the trophy from the Packers in 1963 and that the Cleveland Browns received the trophy from the Bears in 1964. The Packers got it back in 1965. After winning again in 1966 and again in 1967, it seems that the Packers decided amongst themselves that the Ed Thorp Memorial Trophy had a permanent home. If they thought it was so great that they ignored their obligation to pass it to the next league champion, why did they treat the trophy so horribly? It’s that entitlement thing. The Colts never saw the Thorp in 1968. The Vikings never saw it in 1969. It was lost in Green Bay. Literally.

Christl claims that Green Bay is and should be the Thorp’s home because the Packers won it eight times. That’s ridiculous. The Vikings won it but never possessed it. The Vikings were the last team to win it and should have it for that reason alone. The trophy was meant to go to the next NFL champion and there wouldn’t be a next one. It’s annoying that the Packers believe that they are entitled to the Thorp because they won it eight times. It’s even more annoying that they believe that they are entitled to it after treating it with such disrespect for nearly 50 years. That’s reason enough to not have the trophy now. 

In all honesty, I believe that the Ed Thorp Memorial Trophy should be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. On its way to Canton, it should spend a year at the Minnesota Vikings Museum in Eagan. One of the many places it shouldn’t be is in Green Bay.I just noticed that this tale of a certain missing trophy was discussed on the message board about a year ago. I guess this is a re-visit. The NFL had a championship trophy before the

Football is back, and so are my depth chart previews! After suffering through a roller coaster of a season in 2021, it is high time we see the Vikings get to a game above .500. Can we knock off the Packers in the first week of the O'Connell era?




Injury Report

Vikings
DE Bullard - Questionable
S Cine - Questionable


Packers

WR Lazard - Doubtful
LT Bakhtiari - Questionable
RT Jenkins - Questionable

Line: GB -1.5
% of money on favorite: 51%
My simulator's line: MIN -3.5

I will be featuring my simulator in a new article soon, but if you are interested in how it works, check it out here. For now, we'll test its accuracy every week by coming up with a 'calculated line' - so in 2,000 simulations, it has the Vikings beating the Packers by an average of 3.5 points per game.

*My Thoughts*

Every year, we come up with new reasons to suspect the Packers' demise, only for them to win 13 games. However, the loss of Davante Adams is easily the biggest reason on paper for them to regress, and their odd offseason that saw them add a washed up Sammy Watkins as the only veteran WR addition was beyond baffling. Sure, they spent 2nd, 4th, and a 7th rounder on WR, but none of those guys are going to be playing every down to start.

There's not much to say about Rodgers that has already been said. We'll have to hope he's in a 'hangover' state like he was Week 1 last year, but it seemed like that game was a total aberration. Still, in the playoffs it showed that he needed more than just Adams to throw to, and now he has even less, and Lazard is going to miss this game too! The Packers will liberally hand off to the stellar RB duo of Jones and Dillon, and they'll both be catching plenty of passes. Watkins and Cobb showed last season that they have little left, and you have to hope Peterson and Dantzler can handle them. Doubs was the star of training camp for the Packers and should rotate in the slot for them, while Watson missed nearly all of camp but should play. His speed is a massive threat, but I suspect he'll act as more of a decoy - which will still force our safeties to play deep so Rodgers can take advantage underneath. Tonyan is a total question mark after an ACL tear, he had a flukey good 2020 before not playing well in 2021 pre-injury. Lewis is a stud blocking TE who is still going at age 38!

On the OL, the Packers are hoping their bookends can recover from their serious injuries. When healthy, they are a dominant duo, but the Packers held up fine without them last year. They attacked their OL depth issues by spending 3rd, 4th, and a 7th round pick, but they appear to be going with their 2021 draftees in Myers and Newman. Both were shaky when they played in 2021 but O-linemen do take time to mature.

Green Bay spent their 2 first rounders on defense and it shows - they're stacked, and on paper look like a top 5 defense. The DL is anchored by Clark, and while Lowry is fine and Reed has been disappointing more often than not, they do have Devonte Wyatt in the fold. Jordan Davis stole the headlines at Georgia with his incredible combine, but Wyatt was the better every down player and had a freakishly high RAS score too. He qualifies as one of the best rotational linemen to start off.

At linebacker, the Pack let Za'Darius go but they were willing to because Rashan Gary broke out in Year 3. He finished with a top 10 PFF grade and 9.5 sacks, and he's still got room to grow. Preston Smith rebounded after a poor 2020 and picked up the slack when his fellow Smith got hurt. Depth is a concern for them as Garvin is the next man up. At inside LB, they spent what I'd consider a luxury pick on Quay Walker - another Georgia defender who didn't shine as much because the whole unit was so stacked - but he serves as a massive upgrade from Krys Barnes. De'Vondre Campbell inexplicably had a crazy good 2021 after being a consistently below-average LB his whole career. The Packers rewarded him with a $50M deal and they'll need him to repeat in order to be worth that money.

After spending tons of draft capital on DBs the past 5 years, the Packers finally have a good unit. Alexander missed most of 2021, but was a top 3 corner in 2020. Stokes had a quality rookie year, outplaying most of his fellow rookies, and could take a big leap this year. Douglas had an out-of-nowhere quality 2021 season in coverage, but he didn't function as the slot CB, so I don't know if they're asking him to play there. They've frequently used a third safety, but I don't see a clear candidate as their reserves are better suited for special teams. Still, Savage and Amos compliment each other well as traditional free and strong safeties.

My prediction: Vikings 24, Packers 21

I didn't think I'd be picking the Vikings Week 1 of the new regime, but I simply don't have a pulse on this squad yet to feel confident about being right or wrong here. The last two years I correctly predicted 23 of the 33 games they played, but with Zimmer's fairly predictable team out of the picture, I simply don't know. I'm thinking that the Vikings start out hot and are more likely to cool later in the season, while the Packers could start out a bit like they did in 2021 but figure things out as the season goes on. Rodgers has been lights-out lately, but I have trouble envision him finding open receivers with Adams gone and nobody close to his talent replacing him. And with the Vikings healthy right now, I think we live up to our potential, at least for this week.

Your thoughts?
Football is back, and so are my depth chart previews! After suffering through a roller coaster of a season in 2021, it is high time we see the Vikings get to a game above .500. Can we knock off the

Check out our preview for Episode 72!https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPS-53rBthg Check out our preview for Episode 72!

Back in 2017, the Minnesota Vikings made it all the way to an NFC Championship game with a back up QB and a dominant defense that led the league in points per game (15.8/g) After getting plastered all over Lincoln Financial Field, the question most wanted an answer to was "Where to now?"

It was obvious the main issue was finding a stable situation at the QB position, however Mike Zimmer made it known that he didn't want Rick to overspend on the offense to the detriment of the defense. Zimmer felt that with a top 5 defense and a run first offense operated by a good game manager QB his team could be a regular playoff contender.

After a disappointing 2018 (8-7-1) the Vikings bounced back in 2019 (10-6) with the defense doing a solid job both seasons (21.3 ppg and 18.9ppg) ranking 9th and 5th respectively. Then it fell off a cliff. In 2020 the defense was truly awful, and while 2021 was an improvement it certainly wasn't near the level of the 2017-2019 units. So what happened? 

To answer this question I am going to explore the role Rick Spielman may have played with the way the roster was constructed. So let's start with a chart.

VIKINGS CAP ALLOCATION 2017 -2021:


Two thing stand out here, the dead cap hits for 2020/2021 and the injured reserve cap for the same years. We'll unpack that further, but first we need to break things down a bit further. How about another chart!

POSITIONAL SPENDING 2017-2021


So, does anything stand out? Remember that huge dead cap jump in 2020? Now look at the effect on the roster spending. Let's explore this a bit more.

Between 2017-2019, the Vikings roster was fairly stable. They were selective when acquiring players and were careful to structure contracts with the majority of guaranteed money paid early. This kept dead cap money to a minimum if the team wanted to move on, and allowed them to maximize spending.

In 2020 the Vikings traded Stefon Diggs, cut Linval Joseph, Xavier Rhodes, and Josh Kline (among others) and were seemingly in the midst of a mini rebuild. These transactions incurred almost $19M dead cap.

Then Rick Spielman inexplicably traded for Yannick Ngakoue, a player who clearly didn't fit Zimmers system. Six weeks later, Ngakoue was traded away for less than was given up to acquire him and the Vikings wore a $$6.8M dead cap charge. That's $25.8M charged against the cap for players that aren't contributing to the team.

Spielman then doubled down on what I regard as poor offseason management and decided to franchise tag Anthony Harris for an $11.4M cap figure, presumably to attract a trade partner that never materialized. This money could have been better spent on acquiring a veteran CB to replace Rhodes, but the Vikings were left to roll with a group of Corners consisting of 1st and 2nd year rookies.

To put things in perspective, the Vikings were spending 3.8% of their cap on CBs and 11.9% on Safeties. Unsurprisingly the defense struggled mightily, and was certainly not helped by Danielle Hunter suffering a neck tweek and Anthony Barr a pectoral injury, however the lack of cap space because of the high dead cap left a roster devoid of depth.

The trend continued somewhat and ultimately lead to both Zimmer and Spielman being fired. While the coaching staff have copped their fair share off criticism, I think Rick Spielman has been let off the hook somewhat, and his inability to build a sustainable roster with depth to allow for injuries and declining player performance warrants discussion.Back in 2017, the Minnesota Vikings made it all the way to an NFC Championship game with a back up QB and a dominant defense that led the league in points per game (15.8/g) After getting plastered

Hello readers, in addition to my weekly Depth Chart Previews I will be giving you updates regarding anything and everything around the NFL and sometimes the NFC North. Today I would like to discuss a trend I've been seeing around the league.

I've been having some thoughts about seeing so much confidence from almost every fanbase in football - it's certainly a normal thing, but a recent article from The Athletic cemented it. The NFL staff at The Athletic developed a simulator (sound familiar?) that converted spreads of every game this year and converted those into a projected W/L for every team in the league. Then, the beat writer for each team wrote a blurb about what they thought about the number. I will share the Vikings portion here (from Arif Hasan):



I don't have a problem with this. What I do have is a problem with the beat writers on the aggregate. I took the 32 opinions and grouped them:

• Bet the over / optimistic: 16 teams
  
• The win total is just right / did not explicitly say over or under: 12 teams
• Bet the under / pessimistic: 4 teams

Yes, folks, only the Cowboys (10.7 wins), Browns (8.2), Jaguars (6.2) and Lions (6.9) had their beat writers suggest fading the team. I probably don't need to tell you this, but being neutral/optimistic on 28 teams is frankly irrational. Just look at these blurbs from various teams:









While these statements are all true, they're all examples of trying to predict the future with the results of the past. Trends do not last forever and assuming 'we have to win more games this year because we have a new coach/we can't be as injured as last year/easy schedule' is lazy. Many teams will be worse than they were last year, it'd be statistically impossible otherwise. 

In the grand scope of things, this irrational optimism doesn't mean much. There is a saying that goes 'winning cures everything' - but I suggest to you the opposite side of the coin: 'losing dispels foolhardy optimism'. It won't take long for fanbases to settle down and realize their reasons to get their hopes up were not very strong. Players will get injured, and some will not live up to expectation.

I recommend you temper your expectations - don't expect your squad to have smooth sailing the entire year. You should still demand greatness of your team, of course, but foolishly betting the over on an annual basis is... well, foolish.
Hello readers, in addition to my weekly Depth Chart Previews I will be giving you updates regarding anything and everything around the NFL and sometimes the NFC North. Today I would like to discuss a

The signing of Za'Darius Smith is great. In a salary cap article, I have to start with that. Having good players is always better than having cap space.

But it does make one wonder what it does to the Vikings' salary cap situation. Didn’t reports say that the Vikings were right up against the cap? How do a team squeeze $42M into $0 of cap space – and to the point of this investigation, what does that do to the future cap? And most importantly: Has the new leadership crippled the team in future years to make a splash now?

To get a sense of how things stand, I downloaded the salary cap positions from all 32 teams from overthecap.com and spotrac.com. (FYI: I pulled this right before the Tyreek Hill deal; I manually added Hill’s deal because it is significant, but that’s the last transaction). Spotrac and Over The Cap add things up a little differently, so you can find a few minor discrepancies, but the overall trends in the post are the same on both.

Before we dive into the Vikings' cap situation, I’ll share a few of my assumptions on what I’d like to see:

Cap space is good, right?

Well, sort of, but not necessarily. Yes, more cap space means more flexibility, but I’m going to go back to the first paragraph of this post: I’d rather have good players than loads of cap space. The reality of the NFL is that good players are hard to find, and, therefore, good players typically make the most money. For an analysis list this that starts with 2023, it’s a bit strange to think that in March 2022, the start of the 2023 season isn’t that far away; a team really only has one free agency period (2023) and two drafts to find enough good players to fill out its roster.

So is this just going to be a ranking of teams with the most cap space?

No. Okay, yes. Here is the 2023 cap space by team from Over The Cap:



Over The Cap - cap space by team

It's a nice picture, but this isn’t the really interesting part. To understand where the Vikings are, there are two very different components that make up this number:

Money that will be paid to players in 2023 – this is the medical equivalent of good cholesterol.
Money paid to players gets good players on your team. Teams can get this cap space back if they trade a player or release them (if the salary in non-guaranteed). This can also be deferred into future years (more on this later).

Prorated bonus dollars – the bad cholesterol of the salary cap. This is from money that was paid to players in previous years and spread over the life of the contract. There is no way to avoid it and no way to reduce it; it can even go up if a player is cut. It's nice if this is lower, but what are you going to do? Avoid the pizza and cheesecake when you visit New York? Not sign Za'Darius Smith? Of course not! Teams that are living life to the fullest will have some of this money. Some of it is also not bad because it means the team is playing for now and later.

So what we want to see is...

A team that has:
- a good amount of cash scheduled to be paid to players; too low and it means they have to find an entire team by next year
- as low a number as possible for that prorated bonus value

Health Check on the Vikings:

The Vikings have ~$199M spent against the cap broken down:
- $152M cash that will be paid to players
- $47M prorated bonus
So $47M/$199M is prorated bonus dollars, or about 23%. The higher this percentage, the less flexibility a team has with its future roster.

Time to put this into a chart to see how the Vikings stack up... 

As you look at this chart, think about it this way:
- left side is less money allocated; right side is more money allocated
- bottom is flexibility with the money spent; top is less flexibility



How do the Vikings stack up?

Really well, actually. They are down on the quadrant that is most set up for success. They have money set to be spend on guys on the roster. Compared to other teams, they have pushed relatively less bonus money into future years, so they still have flexibility. With this, we can now dive a little deeper into two important comparisons: How much space do the Vikings really have? And, how does their roster compare to some of the teams on the chart?

How much space do the Vikings really have?

Over The Cap estimates the 2023 cap to be ~$225M, and the Vikings have $199M allocated, so they have $26M in space? No, they actually have much more. They have $26M in space before they renegotiate any contracts. Compare the amount of prorated bonus by year:

2022 Vikings (right now): $64.7M
2023 Vikings: $46.6M
2024: $35.4M

Right now the Vikings look good sitting with $46.6M of bonus money in 2023. If they do the same thing next year, they can push a minimum of $10M forward into 2024, and probably about the same amount into 2025 and still be in great shape. That would clear an additional $20M of cap space in 2023 while causing very little future pain. So as of now, think of the Vikings as having ~$45-50M in useable space for 2023. That’s with a $14M hit of Za'Darius Smith already taken into account and a full-priced Kirk Cousins. That is plenty of flexibility to add pieces and give Danielle Hunter and Irv Smith Jr. a lot of extra money.

Now a look at what the 2023 Vikings have going for them:

The Good: There is money to be paid to guys that should be core contributors: Kirk Cousins, Brian O'Neill, Danielle Hunter, Dalvin Cook, and Justin Jefferson.

The "Just Okay": Some older guys have pretty big base salaries (Adam Thielen, Harrison Smith, and Eric Kendricks). Big base salaries are better than big bonus charges, because that means there are options. So big numbers for guys on the decline aren’t great, but there are at least choices to be made. There is also a big bonus/dead cap bogey sitting out there for Dalvin Tomlinson that could be fixed with an extension (that I, personally, would be in favor of).

The Bad: There’s some modest-sized bonus charges for older guys who may or may not be around: Adam Thielen ($4.3M), Harrison Smith ($3.9M), and Dalvin Cook ($3.1M). The problem is that these payments continue into 2024, complicating changes. Between 2023 and 2024, the challenges are the $3-$5M type; there isn’t a $40M monster sitting out there like the 2022 Kirk Cousins contract.

Comparisons to Other Teams

It is most useful to compare the Vikings situation to some of the other interesting situations on the chart. For this comparison, it is useful to know how many players teams have signed through 2023. Here is a look at total players under contract and guys getting paid more than $1.5M actual money. ($1.5M was picked because that cuts out veteran minimum and low-level rookie deals). Here is how many players teams have signed:



Indianapolis Colts: Starting with a great cap situation, the Colts are like the Vikings in that they have a veteran quarterback on the roster (Matt Ryan), and several core guys under contract (Darius Leonard, Braden Smith, and Grover Stewart). And they have hardly any sunk-cost bonuses sitting out there. The Vikings are in decent shape, but if you can’t help yourself and simply have to be jealous of another team’s salary cap situation, the Colts are a good choice.

Chicago Bears: The Bears are spending most of their 2023 money on Robert Quinn (he’s fine, but not great), Cody Whitehair (who?), and Eddie Jackson (that’s bad). Their fourth-highest cap hit in 2023 is Justin Fields’ rookie contract. Remember how earlier it was said that “too much free cap space is a bad thing?” This is a perfect example. Robert Quinn, Cody Whitehair, and Eddie Jackson are not the veteran core of a quality (or even serviceable) NFL team.

New Orleans Saints: Here I thought the Saints would be out of cap hell by now with all of their recent cap pain. Nope! Not the case! The core Saints that we know (Jamies Winston, Michael Thomas, Marshon Lattimore, and Cameron Jordan) will be back, but with $84M already sunk, they have very little wiggle room.

Green Bay Packers: Not so bad, sure, but they are locked in to their spending with a relatively large chunk ($69.5M) of immovable money. But they’re not too far to the right of the chart, so they have free space, and a core of Aaron Rodgers, David Bakhtiari, Kenny Clark, Aaron Jones, Preston Smith, and De’Vondre Campbell will be pretty good with $60M of free space, right? Wrong. Rodgers isn’t counted as one of the players earning more than $1.5M in 2023 because Over The Cap isn’t showing the $58,300,000 player option Aaron Rodgers can exercise in 2023. That’s not even the rest of his contract; that’s just 2023. He can exercise another $47,000,000 in 2024. Even if those are spread out over a few years, those are massive shoes waiting to drop on this seemingly "okay" number. He could also retire and blast a dead cap hole in the Packers' cap as big as the pile of toilet paper they use to print Packer stock. (Sorry to any Packers fans reading this! Just having a little fun!) 

The Bottom Line

Even after spending on Za'Darius Smith and pushing out Hunter’s bonus, the Vikings are in pretty good shape for the salary cap in 2023. They have some bumps in the road, but those are manageable and generally less than most of their competitors.

To answer the critical question: Has the new leadership crippled the team in future years to make a splash now? No. The team is set up very well to keep guys like Danielle Hunter, Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw, and Cameron Dantzler, regardless of what happens at quarterback. 
The signing of Za'Darius Smith is great. In a salary cap article, I have to start with that. Having good players is always better than having cap space. But it does make one wonder

I have incomplete data for this game but I’m posting what I can based on highlights, box scores and play by play. I’m not going to do a full review based on highlights, because that leaves out most of what I look for like, where are guys on key plays? Were there mistakes on boring plays that didn’t make the highlight reel? Near misses? What was the actual game flow like?

That said, here are my highlight level takes on the Lions game:

Injuries played a factor, did not play in this game:
- Dalvin Cook
- Christian Darrisaw
- Eric Kendricks
- Anthony Barr
- Patrick Peterson
- Adam Thielen (after his 6 snaps)
- Everson Griffen
Plus longer term misses in Hunter and Irv Smith that are largely baked in to expectations.

The offense was basically reduced to Cousins + ONiell + Jefferson and they still handed the defense a lead with under 2 minutes left. The top 3 players in terms of snap count of the defensive line were DJ Wonnum, Sheldon Richardson and Kenny Willekes – not what I’d call a the A-Team.


Key Play
The Vikings had the Lions in 3rd and 10 on the final drive.  Detroit had no time outs and needed a touchdown.  This was an underneath completion to Godwin Igwebuike:



I picked this as key for a few reasons:
- Personnel changes are necessary. That's Mackenzie Alexander flailing at the tackle. Alexander was not involved in the stop, he ran backwards up field away from the runner and did nothing. The Vikings might as well have been playing this play with 10 men.

- It highlights everything wrong with the urgency of the Vikings pass defense.  The Vikings made nothing difficult for Goff on this drive.  Everything was an easy pitch and catch.  This is Zimmer's system failing in real time.  I get the point of the system "Keep everything in front of you and wait for 1 mistake to kill a drive", if the offense has to make long drives, that one fatal mistake becomes likely.  However it all falls apart when keeping everything in front of you means "giving the other team everything they want.  

I picked this play because it's a 3rd down, not the final play of the game.  However the final play of the game has all the same problems as this play with the Vikings just giving the Lions as much space as they want.  Dantzler get's burned for playing off too much, but he is literally the defender closest to his man at the snap.  Every other Vikings player is also a spectator even further off the line.  Neither safety made it as far forward as being even on depth with any of the four receivers on the play.  I maintain this is the scheme failing, not Dantzler the individual.  




Passing Offense:
The Lions were aggressively pressing all the short stuff, but had no answer for Jefferson deep.

In a case of extreme karma, Adam Thielen played 6 snaps before he was injured. The injury happened on a pass behind the line of scrimmage, an route that does not play to Thielen’s strengths that the Vikings have run repeatedly with very little success. After 13 weeks, they didn’t learn their lesion and got one of their best players injured pounding their metaphorical head against a wall.

Tyler Conklin can’t create separation. The Jets significantly overpaid to get him. He’s a fine player as a dependable blocking TE, but he is in no way a playmaker.

Oli Udoh was playing left tackle, he gave up a sack fumble. The sack was at least a 50/50 coverage sack but still, this won’t help Udoh’s reputation.
Incomplete Game Rating of +1


Rushing Offense
This must have been extremely inconsistent. The highlights showed Mattison with several solid runs of 8-12 yards plus is touchdown. However 22 carries for 90 yards is not a good day. This would align with the season arc of way more inconsistent play from the running game than I would have expected – based on both reputation and recollection.
Incomplete Game Rating of -1


Passing Defense
I’ll give credit to Goff first: this was a good game for him. He had several throws that made me think “Wow! That’s a big boy throw right there!”. If the Lions get this version of Goff every game, they could probably have a winning season.

There was Xavier Woods’ #23 popping up in lot of highlights and not in a good way.

Breeland was bad – I’ve defended him some, but not this game.

Dantzler was good.

The Vikings played incredible soft on the last drive. When everybody is doing the same thing, I put it on coaching, not player mistakes.

The Defensive line was not up to the task of creating pressure, 2 of the team’s 3 sacks came from Blake Lynch at LB.
Incomplete Game Rating of -2


Run Defense
Held their own, this group seemed to contribute. Not much to add without more game flow context.
Incomplete Game Rating of +1


Special teams
Did their jobs well enough to win.  The return game gifted the offense a short field at a critical moment.
Incomplete Game Rating of +2


Coaching
The Lions were the more aggressive team. The Vikings weren’t able to capitalize on their own strengths. This was a bad game for the coaching staff, but there are a two mitigating factors:
- The Lions made their own brakes with aggressive play.
- There were a lot of injuries.  
It's a minus two because of the late game strategy.  I think the failure of the last drive was more coaching / game planning / situational awareness than failures by individual players.
Incomplete Game Rating of -2
I have incomplete data for this game but I’m posting what I can based on highlights, box scores and play by play. I’m not going to do a full review based on highlights, because that leaves out most