Packers at Vikings Depth Chart Preview W1 2022
Football is back, and so are my depth chart previews! After suffering through a roller coaster of a season in 2021, it is high time we see the Vikings get to a game above .500. Can we knock off the Packers in the first week of the O'Connell era?
Injury Report
Vikings
DE Bullard - Questionable
S Cine - Questionable
Packers
WR Lazard - Doubtful
LT Bakhtiari - Questionable
RT Jenkins - Questionable
Line: GB -1.5
% of money on favorite: 51%
My simulator's line: MIN -3.5
I will be featuring my simulator in a new article soon, but if you are interested in how it works, check it out here. For now, we'll test its accuracy every week by coming up with a 'calculated line' - so in 2,000 simulations, it has the Vikings beating the Packers by an average of 3.5 points per game.
*My Thoughts*
Every year, we come up with new reasons to suspect the Packers' demise, only for them to win 13 games. However, the loss of Davante Adams is easily the biggest reason on paper for them to regress, and their odd offseason that saw them add a washed up Sammy Watkins as the only veteran WR addition was beyond baffling. Sure, they spent 2nd, 4th, and a 7th rounder on WR, but none of those guys are going to be playing every down to start.
There's not much to say about Rodgers that has already been said. We'll have to hope he's in a 'hangover' state like he was Week 1 last year, but it seemed like that game was a total aberration. Still, in the playoffs it showed that he needed more than just Adams to throw to, and now he has even less, and Lazard is going to miss this game too! The Packers will liberally hand off to the stellar RB duo of Jones and Dillon, and they'll both be catching plenty of passes. Watkins and Cobb showed last season that they have little left, and you have to hope Peterson and Dantzler can handle them. Doubs was the star of training camp for the Packers and should rotate in the slot for them, while Watson missed nearly all of camp but should play. His speed is a massive threat, but I suspect he'll act as more of a decoy - which will still force our safeties to play deep so Rodgers can take advantage underneath. Tonyan is a total question mark after an ACL tear, he had a flukey good 2020 before not playing well in 2021 pre-injury. Lewis is a stud blocking TE who is still going at age 38!
On the OL, the Packers are hoping their bookends can recover from their serious injuries. When healthy, they are a dominant duo, but the Packers held up fine without them last year. They attacked their OL depth issues by spending 3rd, 4th, and a 7th round pick, but they appear to be going with their 2021 draftees in Myers and Newman. Both were shaky when they played in 2021 but O-linemen do take time to mature.
Green Bay spent their 2 first rounders on defense and it shows - they're stacked, and on paper look like a top 5 defense. The DL is anchored by Clark, and while Lowry is fine and Reed has been disappointing more often than not, they do have Devonte Wyatt in the fold. Jordan Davis stole the headlines at Georgia with his incredible combine, but Wyatt was the better every down player and had a freakishly high RAS score too. He qualifies as one of the best rotational linemen to start off.
At linebacker, the Pack let Za'Darius go but they were willing to because Rashan Gary broke out in Year 3. He finished with a top 10 PFF grade and 9.5 sacks, and he's still got room to grow. Preston Smith rebounded after a poor 2020 and picked up the slack when his fellow Smith got hurt. Depth is a concern for them as Garvin is the next man up. At inside LB, they spent what I'd consider a luxury pick on Quay Walker - another Georgia defender who didn't shine as much because the whole unit was so stacked - but he serves as a massive upgrade from Krys Barnes. De'Vondre Campbell inexplicably had a crazy good 2021 after being a consistently below-average LB his whole career. The Packers rewarded him with a $50M deal and they'll need him to repeat in order to be worth that money.
After spending tons of draft capital on DBs the past 5 years, the Packers finally have a good unit. Alexander missed most of 2021, but was a top 3 corner in 2020. Stokes had a quality rookie year, outplaying most of his fellow rookies, and could take a big leap this year. Douglas had an out-of-nowhere quality 2021 season in coverage, but he didn't function as the slot CB, so I don't know if they're asking him to play there. They've frequently used a third safety, but I don't see a clear candidate as their reserves are better suited for special teams. Still, Savage and Amos compliment each other well as traditional free and strong safeties.
My prediction: Vikings 24, Packers 21
I didn't think I'd be picking the Vikings Week 1 of the new regime, but I simply don't have a pulse on this squad yet to feel confident about being right or wrong here. The last two years I correctly predicted 23 of the 33 games they played, but with Zimmer's fairly predictable team out of the picture, I simply don't know. I'm thinking that the Vikings start out hot and are more likely to cool later in the season, while the Packers could start out a bit like they did in 2021 but figure things out as the season goes on. Rodgers has been lights-out lately, but I have trouble envision him finding open receivers with Adams gone and nobody close to his talent replacing him. And with the Vikings healthy right now, I think we live up to our potential, at least for this week.
Your thoughts?
Injury Report
Vikings
DE Bullard - Questionable
S Cine - Questionable
Packers
WR Lazard - Doubtful
LT Bakhtiari - Questionable
RT Jenkins - Questionable
Line: GB -1.5
% of money on favorite: 51%
My simulator's line: MIN -3.5
I will be featuring my simulator in a new article soon, but if you are interested in how it works, check it out here. For now, we'll test its accuracy every week by coming up with a 'calculated line' - so in 2,000 simulations, it has the Vikings beating the Packers by an average of 3.5 points per game.
*My Thoughts*
Every year, we come up with new reasons to suspect the Packers' demise, only for them to win 13 games. However, the loss of Davante Adams is easily the biggest reason on paper for them to regress, and their odd offseason that saw them add a washed up Sammy Watkins as the only veteran WR addition was beyond baffling. Sure, they spent 2nd, 4th, and a 7th rounder on WR, but none of those guys are going to be playing every down to start.
There's not much to say about Rodgers that has already been said. We'll have to hope he's in a 'hangover' state like he was Week 1 last year, but it seemed like that game was a total aberration. Still, in the playoffs it showed that he needed more than just Adams to throw to, and now he has even less, and Lazard is going to miss this game too! The Packers will liberally hand off to the stellar RB duo of Jones and Dillon, and they'll both be catching plenty of passes. Watkins and Cobb showed last season that they have little left, and you have to hope Peterson and Dantzler can handle them. Doubs was the star of training camp for the Packers and should rotate in the slot for them, while Watson missed nearly all of camp but should play. His speed is a massive threat, but I suspect he'll act as more of a decoy - which will still force our safeties to play deep so Rodgers can take advantage underneath. Tonyan is a total question mark after an ACL tear, he had a flukey good 2020 before not playing well in 2021 pre-injury. Lewis is a stud blocking TE who is still going at age 38!
On the OL, the Packers are hoping their bookends can recover from their serious injuries. When healthy, they are a dominant duo, but the Packers held up fine without them last year. They attacked their OL depth issues by spending 3rd, 4th, and a 7th round pick, but they appear to be going with their 2021 draftees in Myers and Newman. Both were shaky when they played in 2021 but O-linemen do take time to mature.
Green Bay spent their 2 first rounders on defense and it shows - they're stacked, and on paper look like a top 5 defense. The DL is anchored by Clark, and while Lowry is fine and Reed has been disappointing more often than not, they do have Devonte Wyatt in the fold. Jordan Davis stole the headlines at Georgia with his incredible combine, but Wyatt was the better every down player and had a freakishly high RAS score too. He qualifies as one of the best rotational linemen to start off.
At linebacker, the Pack let Za'Darius go but they were willing to because Rashan Gary broke out in Year 3. He finished with a top 10 PFF grade and 9.5 sacks, and he's still got room to grow. Preston Smith rebounded after a poor 2020 and picked up the slack when his fellow Smith got hurt. Depth is a concern for them as Garvin is the next man up. At inside LB, they spent what I'd consider a luxury pick on Quay Walker - another Georgia defender who didn't shine as much because the whole unit was so stacked - but he serves as a massive upgrade from Krys Barnes. De'Vondre Campbell inexplicably had a crazy good 2021 after being a consistently below-average LB his whole career. The Packers rewarded him with a $50M deal and they'll need him to repeat in order to be worth that money.
After spending tons of draft capital on DBs the past 5 years, the Packers finally have a good unit. Alexander missed most of 2021, but was a top 3 corner in 2020. Stokes had a quality rookie year, outplaying most of his fellow rookies, and could take a big leap this year. Douglas had an out-of-nowhere quality 2021 season in coverage, but he didn't function as the slot CB, so I don't know if they're asking him to play there. They've frequently used a third safety, but I don't see a clear candidate as their reserves are better suited for special teams. Still, Savage and Amos compliment each other well as traditional free and strong safeties.
My prediction: Vikings 24, Packers 21
I didn't think I'd be picking the Vikings Week 1 of the new regime, but I simply don't have a pulse on this squad yet to feel confident about being right or wrong here. The last two years I correctly predicted 23 of the 33 games they played, but with Zimmer's fairly predictable team out of the picture, I simply don't know. I'm thinking that the Vikings start out hot and are more likely to cool later in the season, while the Packers could start out a bit like they did in 2021 but figure things out as the season goes on. Rodgers has been lights-out lately, but I have trouble envision him finding open receivers with Adams gone and nobody close to his talent replacing him. And with the Vikings healthy right now, I think we live up to our potential, at least for this week.
Your thoughts?
... and neither is this Chris guy.