NFL Checkup - Optimism Abounds
Hello readers, in addition to my weekly Depth Chart Previews I will be giving you updates regarding anything and everything around the NFL and sometimes the NFC North. Today I would like to discuss a trend I've been seeing around the league.
I've been having some thoughts about seeing so much confidence from almost every fanbase in football - it's certainly a normal thing, but a recent article from The Athletic cemented it. The NFL staff at The Athletic developed a simulator (sound familiar?) that converted spreads of every game this year and converted those into a projected W/L for every team in the league. Then, the beat writer for each team wrote a blurb about what they thought about the number. I will share the Vikings portion here (from Arif Hasan):
I don't have a problem with this. What I do have is a problem with the beat writers on the aggregate. I took the 32 opinions and grouped them:
Yes, folks, only the Cowboys (10.7 wins), Browns (8.2), Jaguars (6.2) and Lions (6.9) had their beat writers suggest fading the team. I probably don't need to tell you this, but being neutral/optimistic on 28 teams is frankly irrational. Just look at these blurbs from various teams:
While these statements are all true, they're all examples of trying to predict the future with the results of the past. Trends do not last forever and assuming 'we have to win more games this year because we have a new coach/we can't be as injured as last year/easy schedule' is lazy. Many teams will be worse than they were last year, it'd be statistically impossible otherwise.
In the grand scope of things, this irrational optimism doesn't mean much. There is a saying that goes 'winning cures everything' - but I suggest to you the opposite side of the coin: 'losing dispels foolhardy optimism'. It won't take long for fanbases to settle down and realize their reasons to get their hopes up were not very strong. Players will get injured, and some will not live up to expectation.
I recommend you temper your expectations - don't expect your squad to have smooth sailing the entire year. You should still demand greatness of your team, of course, but foolishly betting the over on an annual basis is... well, foolish.
I've been having some thoughts about seeing so much confidence from almost every fanbase in football - it's certainly a normal thing, but a recent article from The Athletic cemented it. The NFL staff at The Athletic developed a simulator (sound familiar?) that converted spreads of every game this year and converted those into a projected W/L for every team in the league. Then, the beat writer for each team wrote a blurb about what they thought about the number. I will share the Vikings portion here (from Arif Hasan):
Minnesota Vikings Win total: 9.7
This matches many of the casino odds put forth by Vegas and is not too far from my estimate of 10 wins. It is difficult to model new coaching changes, but there should be some marginal improvement in the Vikings offense and some mixed results in the efficiency of the defense — one that always had better advanced stats than the point totals would have suggested. Though I do expect to see a better team, uncertainty regarding a new coaching staff should be factored in. I’d say this number is basically spot on. — Arif Hasan
This matches many of the casino odds put forth by Vegas and is not too far from my estimate of 10 wins. It is difficult to model new coaching changes, but there should be some marginal improvement in the Vikings offense and some mixed results in the efficiency of the defense — one that always had better advanced stats than the point totals would have suggested. Though I do expect to see a better team, uncertainty regarding a new coaching staff should be factored in. I’d say this number is basically spot on. — Arif Hasan
I don't have a problem with this. What I do have is a problem with the beat writers on the aggregate. I took the 32 opinions and grouped them:
- Bet the over / optimistic: 16 teams
- The win total is just right / did not explicitly say over or under: 12 teams
- Bet the under / pessimistic: 4 teams
Yes, folks, only the Cowboys (10.7 wins), Browns (8.2), Jaguars (6.2) and Lions (6.9) had their beat writers suggest fading the team. I probably don't need to tell you this, but being neutral/optimistic on 28 teams is frankly irrational. Just look at these blurbs from various teams:
The Chiefs have won 12 games every season with quarterback Patrick Mahomes as the starter.
They’re [Bucs] likely to have fewer injuries than they had last year, when they went 13-4,
it’s hard to justify picking this team [Bengals] to win fewer games than last year.
In 10 seasons with the Seahawks, Wilson won fewer than 10 games only twice
It’s hard to bet against Bill Belichick putting together a winning season — he’s had one losing season since 2000, and I’m not figuring on another this year.
Washington won seven games last season despite losing its Week 1 starting QB in the first half of the opening game
You may have not known this, but head coach Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record
While these statements are all true, they're all examples of trying to predict the future with the results of the past. Trends do not last forever and assuming 'we have to win more games this year because we have a new coach/we can't be as injured as last year/easy schedule' is lazy. Many teams will be worse than they were last year, it'd be statistically impossible otherwise.
In the grand scope of things, this irrational optimism doesn't mean much. There is a saying that goes 'winning cures everything' - but I suggest to you the opposite side of the coin: 'losing dispels foolhardy optimism'. It won't take long for fanbases to settle down and realize their reasons to get their hopes up were not very strong. Players will get injured, and some will not live up to expectation.
I recommend you temper your expectations - don't expect your squad to have smooth sailing the entire year. You should still demand greatness of your team, of course, but foolishly betting the over on an annual basis is... well, foolish.
