[OC] First Time GM & HC Results
The Vikings have just hired a rookie GM and paired him with a rookie HC, so I'm sure you're all wondering how other teams have fared after following this path. Fear not and wonder no more, after much research the answers shall be revealed.
The cut off point used for this article is 2010, and there is 1 disclaimer. Bruce Arians was hired in 2013 as the new HC of the Cardinals. The year before, while on the Colts staff, Arians was named Interim HC after Chuck Pagano was being treated for Leukemia from weeks 5 through 16. The official stats credited all wins/losses for the Colts to Pagano, so even though Arians was making the game day decisions, his HC record doesn't start until 2013, so Arians is included here as a frst time HC. So let's get into it.
2012 Raiders
Since losing the Super Bowl in 2002, the Raiders have been a bit of a basket case, churning through HCs and GMs faster than you can blink.
In 2012, the Raiders hired Reggie McKenzie as their new GM and Dennis Allen as HC. Coming off an 8-8 season under Hue Jackson, things didn't go well for Allen as he authored consecutive 4-12 seasons in 2012/2013 before being fired after an 0-4 start in 2014. Allen compiled an 8-28(.222) record. Things haven't improved much since Allen's departure as the Raiders lurch from one SNAFU to another, culminating in the Gruden resignation this past season.
2013 Chargers
The Chargers had a decent run through the 2007-2012 seasons with Norv Turner. They won the division the first 3 years but bombed in the playoffs and then missed the playoffs the next 3 seasons and plateaued around the .500 mark.
Enter 2013 and a new regime was appointed with Tom Telesco announced as GM and Mike McCoy as HC. McCoy had been the OC of division rivals Denver for the previous 4 seasons and it was hoped he could coax better production from QB Phillip Rivers.
After putting together a 9-7 season and playoff berth his first season, McCoy couldn't build any momentum and was subsequently fired after 2016 following a 5-11 season. He compiled a 27-37 (.422) record and was 1-1 in the playoffs.
2013 Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars have managed 1 winning season since 2007. Unfortunately for Gus Bradley, who was hired in 2013 along with first time GM David Caldwell, he resided over what was the worst span in Jags history to that point. Bradley put together a 14-48 (.226) record that almost killed his career, and was fired before the end of the 2016 season after notching up a 2-12 record.
Needless to say, the Jags continue to wallow in sorrow and are in a bad place right now.
2013 Cardinals
The Cardinals seemed like a team on the rise in 2008 when, under HC Ken Wisenhunt, they turned a 9-7 division winning record into an NFC Championship and their first trip to the Super Bowl. While they were eventually beaten 23-27 by the Pittsburgh Steelers, Wisenhunt had taken a team that had suffered 8 consecutive losing seasons and moulded them into a winner.
Unfortunately the winning didn't last long, and after a 10-6 season in 2009 the team slumped to 5-11 in 2012 and Wisenhunt was fired.
Enter 2013 and new HC Bruce Arians joined first time GM Steve Keim to attempt to right the ship. Arians immediately sparked the Cards to 3 consecutive winning seasons and 2 playoff berths with newly acquired QB Carson Palmer and a retooled defense. The momentum couldn't be sustained however, and after the 13-3 2015 season the next 2 years yielded 7-8-1 and 8-8 records. Arians compiled a 49-30-1 (.619) record went 1-2 in the playoffs.
2015 Jets
After a 4-12 season under Rex Ryan in 2014, the Jets decided to move on. They appointed Mike Maccagnan as GM and then hired Todd Bowles as HC. An immediate turnaround followed with Ryan Fitzpatrick replacing Geno Smith at QB leading the team to a 10-4 record. The wheels quickly fell off though, and the wingless Jets went 5-11; 5-11; 4-12 the following 3 seasons and Bowles was dismissed after compiling a 24-40 (.375) record. It's worth noting the Jets used 5 QBs over this time, Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty, Geno Smith, Josh McCown, and rookie Sam Darnold.
2017 Bills
The Bills were a team flailing around with no identity since their wildcard playoff loss in 1999. They had chewed through 7 HCs and 2 interim coaches from 2000 to 2016, and at the conclusion of the 2016 season were searching for answers yet again. They parted company with GM Doug Whaley and HC Rex Ryan in an attempt to get the organization on the path to success.
Enter the era of HC Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane. In the 5 years since taking control, the Bills have had only 1 losing season and gone 9-7; 6-10; 10-6; 13-3; 11-6 with 4 playoff berths, 2 division championships, and are poised to be a force for many years with QB Josh Allen leading the way. The Bills blueprint was to purge the roster of over priced vets and reset the salary cap in the new regimes first year while rolling with a stop gap QB, and then reshape the roster in subsequent years to reflect what they have built now. So far things are going well, and with Allen improving each year the Bills should remain an AFC force for years to come.
2017 49ers
After 4 years of high level play through the 2011-2014 seasons the Niners lost their way with Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly surviving one season each before being replaced and polarizing GM Trent Baalke was dismissed at the conclusion of the 2016 season.
A new regime was ushered in with the hope to provide some stability, and Kyle Shanahan was named HC with John Lynch taking over as GM. The early years were tough, as the roster was in poor shape and needed a rebuild, so records of 6-10 and 4-12 the first 2 seasons wasn't surprising.
In their third season together, Shanahan and Lynch saw their plan pay off as the 49ers made it to the Super Bowl in 2019. The past 2 seasons have yielded mixed results through injuries and inconsistent QB play, but with the Niners poised to unleash Trey Lance in 2022 all eyes will be on San Francisco to see if the bold plan to move up in the 2021 draft for Lance was a wise move.
2020-2021
Three teams followed the first time GM/HC plan over this time span, and it's not really useful to try and glean anything from the Falcons and Lions regimes of 2021 or the Browns new staff that has only had 2 years at the helm.
Conclusion
So, I'm not sure you can really say if the first time GM/HC combination is a success or failure. There have certainly been mixed results, but I think as with everything NFL, QB matters. It is also worth noting that patience is also important, and the combinations that have been given the time to implement their plan are likely to succeed.
Having said that, this really is a small sample size and some of these organizations are basket cases.
The cut off point used for this article is 2010, and there is 1 disclaimer. Bruce Arians was hired in 2013 as the new HC of the Cardinals. The year before, while on the Colts staff, Arians was named Interim HC after Chuck Pagano was being treated for Leukemia from weeks 5 through 16. The official stats credited all wins/losses for the Colts to Pagano, so even though Arians was making the game day decisions, his HC record doesn't start until 2013, so Arians is included here as a frst time HC. So let's get into it.
2012 Raiders
Since losing the Super Bowl in 2002, the Raiders have been a bit of a basket case, churning through HCs and GMs faster than you can blink.
In 2012, the Raiders hired Reggie McKenzie as their new GM and Dennis Allen as HC. Coming off an 8-8 season under Hue Jackson, things didn't go well for Allen as he authored consecutive 4-12 seasons in 2012/2013 before being fired after an 0-4 start in 2014. Allen compiled an 8-28(.222) record. Things haven't improved much since Allen's departure as the Raiders lurch from one SNAFU to another, culminating in the Gruden resignation this past season.
2013 Chargers
The Chargers had a decent run through the 2007-2012 seasons with Norv Turner. They won the division the first 3 years but bombed in the playoffs and then missed the playoffs the next 3 seasons and plateaued around the .500 mark.
Enter 2013 and a new regime was appointed with Tom Telesco announced as GM and Mike McCoy as HC. McCoy had been the OC of division rivals Denver for the previous 4 seasons and it was hoped he could coax better production from QB Phillip Rivers.
After putting together a 9-7 season and playoff berth his first season, McCoy couldn't build any momentum and was subsequently fired after 2016 following a 5-11 season. He compiled a 27-37 (.422) record and was 1-1 in the playoffs.
2013 Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars have managed 1 winning season since 2007. Unfortunately for Gus Bradley, who was hired in 2013 along with first time GM David Caldwell, he resided over what was the worst span in Jags history to that point. Bradley put together a 14-48 (.226) record that almost killed his career, and was fired before the end of the 2016 season after notching up a 2-12 record.
Needless to say, the Jags continue to wallow in sorrow and are in a bad place right now.
2013 Cardinals
The Cardinals seemed like a team on the rise in 2008 when, under HC Ken Wisenhunt, they turned a 9-7 division winning record into an NFC Championship and their first trip to the Super Bowl. While they were eventually beaten 23-27 by the Pittsburgh Steelers, Wisenhunt had taken a team that had suffered 8 consecutive losing seasons and moulded them into a winner.
Unfortunately the winning didn't last long, and after a 10-6 season in 2009 the team slumped to 5-11 in 2012 and Wisenhunt was fired.
Enter 2013 and new HC Bruce Arians joined first time GM Steve Keim to attempt to right the ship. Arians immediately sparked the Cards to 3 consecutive winning seasons and 2 playoff berths with newly acquired QB Carson Palmer and a retooled defense. The momentum couldn't be sustained however, and after the 13-3 2015 season the next 2 years yielded 7-8-1 and 8-8 records. Arians compiled a 49-30-1 (.619) record went 1-2 in the playoffs.
2015 Jets
After a 4-12 season under Rex Ryan in 2014, the Jets decided to move on. They appointed Mike Maccagnan as GM and then hired Todd Bowles as HC. An immediate turnaround followed with Ryan Fitzpatrick replacing Geno Smith at QB leading the team to a 10-4 record. The wheels quickly fell off though, and the wingless Jets went 5-11; 5-11; 4-12 the following 3 seasons and Bowles was dismissed after compiling a 24-40 (.375) record. It's worth noting the Jets used 5 QBs over this time, Fitzpatrick, Bryce Petty, Geno Smith, Josh McCown, and rookie Sam Darnold.
2017 Bills
The Bills were a team flailing around with no identity since their wildcard playoff loss in 1999. They had chewed through 7 HCs and 2 interim coaches from 2000 to 2016, and at the conclusion of the 2016 season were searching for answers yet again. They parted company with GM Doug Whaley and HC Rex Ryan in an attempt to get the organization on the path to success.
Enter the era of HC Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane. In the 5 years since taking control, the Bills have had only 1 losing season and gone 9-7; 6-10; 10-6; 13-3; 11-6 with 4 playoff berths, 2 division championships, and are poised to be a force for many years with QB Josh Allen leading the way. The Bills blueprint was to purge the roster of over priced vets and reset the salary cap in the new regimes first year while rolling with a stop gap QB, and then reshape the roster in subsequent years to reflect what they have built now. So far things are going well, and with Allen improving each year the Bills should remain an AFC force for years to come.
2017 49ers
After 4 years of high level play through the 2011-2014 seasons the Niners lost their way with Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly surviving one season each before being replaced and polarizing GM Trent Baalke was dismissed at the conclusion of the 2016 season.
A new regime was ushered in with the hope to provide some stability, and Kyle Shanahan was named HC with John Lynch taking over as GM. The early years were tough, as the roster was in poor shape and needed a rebuild, so records of 6-10 and 4-12 the first 2 seasons wasn't surprising.
In their third season together, Shanahan and Lynch saw their plan pay off as the 49ers made it to the Super Bowl in 2019. The past 2 seasons have yielded mixed results through injuries and inconsistent QB play, but with the Niners poised to unleash Trey Lance in 2022 all eyes will be on San Francisco to see if the bold plan to move up in the 2021 draft for Lance was a wise move.
2020-2021
Three teams followed the first time GM/HC plan over this time span, and it's not really useful to try and glean anything from the Falcons and Lions regimes of 2021 or the Browns new staff that has only had 2 years at the helm.
Conclusion
So, I'm not sure you can really say if the first time GM/HC combination is a success or failure. There have certainly been mixed results, but I think as with everything NFL, QB matters. It is also worth noting that patience is also important, and the combinations that have been given the time to implement their plan are likely to succeed.
Having said that, this really is a small sample size and some of these organizations are basket cases.
