Vikings at Commanders Depth Chart Preview 2022
The Vikings come cruising in at 6-1 with a 5 game winning streak, but the Commies are also on a 3 game win streak as Taylor Heinicke has lead the team to a few comeback victories. Can the Vikings take care of business in Washington and meet the Bills next week both having 7-1 records?
Injury Report
Commies
WR Dotson - Out
LB Holcomb - Out
LB Mayo - Out
DE Toney - Questionable
RB McKissic - Out
Vikings
CB Dantzler - Questionable
WR Nailor - Questionable
NT Tomlinson - Out
Line: Vikings -3 (53% of bets on Commies)
Super Sim Calculated Line: Vikings -10.5
*My thoughts*
The Commanders have taken an unexpected turn as of late. It shouldn't be a surprise that Carson Wentz stunk and then got hurt, but them going on a 3 game winning streak even though Heinicke's play has been quite shaky has been unexpected. PFF has not liked his play, but they're 9-8 with him as starter and there's no question he has some clutchness in him. The Vikings have been able to force turnovers quite well this year, and could be able to intercept a couple passes. Washington's run game has been shaky, as they've inserted rookie Brian Robinson Jr in after being shot. He's been a below average runner while Antonio Gibson, who's by far the better player, has been getting underutilized. With McKissic out, Gibson has been fairly productive in the passing game.
The receiving weapons are shaky outside of McLaurin, yet again. First rounder Jahan Dotson is hurt, meaning that Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas will need to continue to step up. After a 2021 season lost to injury, Samuel has game-breaking upside with the ball in his hands, but he hasn't made a whole lot happen downfield. Thomas hasn't been quite the same since an ACL tear last year. Dyami Brown will likely suit up as the third receiver, but he's been woefully unproductive in his short NFL career after being a 3rd round pick. They've also used the 6'5" Cam Sims plenty the past few weeks, but usually more as a blocker.
Outside of LT, Washington's OL is a shaky unit. Leno has rebounded after Chicago cut him after they thought they were paying him too much, but the Bears appear to have made the wrong move there. Washington has been able to have him play for cheaper than the average LT. Norwell is a fine blocker, but still not what he used to be for the Panthers several years back. They're on their 4th center after Roullier and Schweitzer went down, and they've landed on Larsen over Martin, but both are underwhelming options. Turner is another veteran stopgap (another guard who started under Rivera in Carolina) and is closer to below average, especially as a pass protector. I don't know what's happening at RT, as Cosmi seems to have been benched despite him being a quality player after spending a 2nd rounder on him last year. Maybe he's not fully healthy, as Lucas is still starting in front of him despite being a lesser player.
Defensively, this unit is playing like I thought they would in 2021 (as they were a huge disappointment). Even with Chase Young out, they've been able to rush the passer and defend the pass quite well. It starts with the front four, with Sweat, Payne, and Allen all being great pressure-makers. Obada has been an underrated rotational rusher as well. They're not stopping the run quite as well, giving up a 4.6 YPC, and several members on the DL have poor run defense grades. The LB department is vulnerable, and while Jamin Davis is playing better in Year 2, he's still suspect to missing tackles and being out of place in coverage. With the emerging Holcomb injured, they'll likely field Bostic as the other every-down LB. The key to beating this defense is running the ball right at them where they are weak, and passing off that success.
The safeties are the key to Washington's success, as 4th rounder Darrick Forrest has come out of nowhere to be a fantastic contributor as an explosive tackler and a solid cover guy. They've made him their 3rd LB and nickel CB (basically what we hoped Cine would be by this point) and they've been able to let McCain stay as the free safety and Curl retain his SS role. Right now, Curl is the highest rated safety by PFF's standards. The 7th rounder could be in for a lucrative extension with the way he's played. The CB position looks like a weakness, especially after trading William Jackson III away, but they've been able to hold serve so far. Kendall Fuller isn't a great #1 CB, but he's been a consistently above average CB for several years and can man the slot if need be. St. Juste has been a liability early on in his career, though I thought he was a questionable 3rd round pick in 2021. Wildgoose has been playing some snaps as a slot / dime CB and hasn't graded super well.
Prediction: Vikings 23, Commies 20
This feels like a cop-out, but I just can't pick the Vikings to lose when they have the superior roster and coaches. I think Washington's luck has been more unsustainable than the Vikings', plus the Vikings are just better in the trenches. Perhaps Tomlinson's injury starts to open the ground game for Washington, but I don't think that will be enough for them to move the ball consistently.
Thoughts?
Injury Report
Commies
WR Dotson - Out
LB Holcomb - Out
LB Mayo - Out
DE Toney - Questionable
RB McKissic - Out
Vikings
CB Dantzler - Questionable
WR Nailor - Questionable
NT Tomlinson - Out
Line: Vikings -3 (53% of bets on Commies)
Super Sim Calculated Line: Vikings -10.5
*My thoughts*
The Commanders have taken an unexpected turn as of late. It shouldn't be a surprise that Carson Wentz stunk and then got hurt, but them going on a 3 game winning streak even though Heinicke's play has been quite shaky has been unexpected. PFF has not liked his play, but they're 9-8 with him as starter and there's no question he has some clutchness in him. The Vikings have been able to force turnovers quite well this year, and could be able to intercept a couple passes. Washington's run game has been shaky, as they've inserted rookie Brian Robinson Jr in after being shot. He's been a below average runner while Antonio Gibson, who's by far the better player, has been getting underutilized. With McKissic out, Gibson has been fairly productive in the passing game.
The receiving weapons are shaky outside of McLaurin, yet again. First rounder Jahan Dotson is hurt, meaning that Curtis Samuel and Logan Thomas will need to continue to step up. After a 2021 season lost to injury, Samuel has game-breaking upside with the ball in his hands, but he hasn't made a whole lot happen downfield. Thomas hasn't been quite the same since an ACL tear last year. Dyami Brown will likely suit up as the third receiver, but he's been woefully unproductive in his short NFL career after being a 3rd round pick. They've also used the 6'5" Cam Sims plenty the past few weeks, but usually more as a blocker.
Outside of LT, Washington's OL is a shaky unit. Leno has rebounded after Chicago cut him after they thought they were paying him too much, but the Bears appear to have made the wrong move there. Washington has been able to have him play for cheaper than the average LT. Norwell is a fine blocker, but still not what he used to be for the Panthers several years back. They're on their 4th center after Roullier and Schweitzer went down, and they've landed on Larsen over Martin, but both are underwhelming options. Turner is another veteran stopgap (another guard who started under Rivera in Carolina) and is closer to below average, especially as a pass protector. I don't know what's happening at RT, as Cosmi seems to have been benched despite him being a quality player after spending a 2nd rounder on him last year. Maybe he's not fully healthy, as Lucas is still starting in front of him despite being a lesser player.
Defensively, this unit is playing like I thought they would in 2021 (as they were a huge disappointment). Even with Chase Young out, they've been able to rush the passer and defend the pass quite well. It starts with the front four, with Sweat, Payne, and Allen all being great pressure-makers. Obada has been an underrated rotational rusher as well. They're not stopping the run quite as well, giving up a 4.6 YPC, and several members on the DL have poor run defense grades. The LB department is vulnerable, and while Jamin Davis is playing better in Year 2, he's still suspect to missing tackles and being out of place in coverage. With the emerging Holcomb injured, they'll likely field Bostic as the other every-down LB. The key to beating this defense is running the ball right at them where they are weak, and passing off that success.
The safeties are the key to Washington's success, as 4th rounder Darrick Forrest has come out of nowhere to be a fantastic contributor as an explosive tackler and a solid cover guy. They've made him their 3rd LB and nickel CB (basically what we hoped Cine would be by this point) and they've been able to let McCain stay as the free safety and Curl retain his SS role. Right now, Curl is the highest rated safety by PFF's standards. The 7th rounder could be in for a lucrative extension with the way he's played. The CB position looks like a weakness, especially after trading William Jackson III away, but they've been able to hold serve so far. Kendall Fuller isn't a great #1 CB, but he's been a consistently above average CB for several years and can man the slot if need be. St. Juste has been a liability early on in his career, though I thought he was a questionable 3rd round pick in 2021. Wildgoose has been playing some snaps as a slot / dime CB and hasn't graded super well.
Prediction: Vikings 23, Commies 20
This feels like a cop-out, but I just can't pick the Vikings to lose when they have the superior roster and coaches. I think Washington's luck has been more unsustainable than the Vikings', plus the Vikings are just better in the trenches. Perhaps Tomlinson's injury starts to open the ground game for Washington, but I don't think that will be enough for them to move the ball consistently.
Thoughts?
... and neither is this Chris guy.