The Vikings “get” to travel to the worst stadium in the NFL. And good news! It turns out it wasn’t even raw sewage pouring on the fans, only fetid rainwater that, for some reason, they stored for a sunny day in case fans were too happy, so… yay!

The Commanders went and won three is a row, so I guess I have to write an actual preview rather than post dumpster fire memes. Looking at stats and watching Commanders games I have several things that I noticed before I get to the key to the game:

1. Curtis Samuel is the Washington gadget player getting a lot of carries on things like jet sweeps, misdirections, screens, and short crosses. I investigated if slowing him down or ignoring him has any correlation with the Commanders winning or losing, it doesn’t. Don’t panic if he gets 70-90 total yards; that’s normal.

2. It’s kind of unbelievable that a single franchise has all 3 of the top 3 dumbest team names in NFL history.

3. The Commanders are also pretty good at covering franticly hopeless lateral plays. I’m not sure if this will relevant to Vikings game plan, I just wanted to get this in :


Fun fact, there were 5 laterals on the last play of the Packers v Commanders game, only one of them was illegally thrown forward: Aaron Rodgers’.

A Profile of Taylor Heinicke



Heinicke has certainly been an X factor in the last two Washington seasons. This year he’s come in and beat two teams in the Packers and Colts that even if they aren’t great, at least have delusions of adequacy. So, I started my game review looking for ways to beat Heinicke. It turns out Heinicke isn’t a bad QB, he just doesn’t have very much arm strength. Watching him was a lot like watching Teddy Bridgewater in Week 6 vs the Dolphins. His passes are almost exclusively three types:

- Check downs to RBs
- Short to mid crossing routes
- Rainbow balls deep downfield

These throws he can often hit with reasonably good accuracy. For example, this absolute gem of a 37-yard touchdown pass to Terry McLaurin over Jaire Alexander.



That’s good coverage and a small window right up against the sideline and Heinicke dropped it in beautifully. His problem is that without a deep out throw in his arsenal, defenses don’t have to cover as much of the field and the deep routes are easier to cover. The Vikings have generally been good at covering this type of bomb this year.  It's also important to remember that Heinicke can and has hit this throw; if he does, there's not much a defense can do about a perfectly thrown pass to a receiver with good hands - but one or two of these shouldn't cost the Vikings the game because the rest of the Commanders performance has been so inconsistent.

Next aspect of his game: Heinicke is another mobile QB, and like Hurts, Fields, and Murray he has his own unique running style. He’s not nearly as dangerous as those three guys, but I think he does have one advantage over those guys: Heinicke’s first instinct is to step forward in the pocket and run straight ahead. This means he gets a few extra steps to find a receiver as he starts his scramble – which he does with some regularity because he is also good at keeping his eyes downfield.

The Vikings clearly have the better QB in the game, but Heinicke isn’t without strengths. Because of Heinicke’s tendency to throw over the middle, a delayed pass rush up the middle could be a good way to wreck his day.

Key to the game

Vikings running backs need to outplay the Washington backs. This doesn’t mean more yards. In order, what I want to see is:
#1 – The ability of a back to pass protect AND pass rush getting past the extra blocker
#2 – The ability of a back to be a safety check down in the passing game AND cover backs in the passing game
#3 – Running with the ball

The Commanders have a very interesting tendency – they throw to backs a lot on offense and on defense they are very aggressive at covering backs out of the backfield. Here are a few looks that caught my eye.

The Colts are running a play action on this play. The first reason I picked this play is because the Commander linebackers bit hard on the play action, but when the play revealed itself to be a pass, they didn’t drop off.



After the play action, the Colts quarterback had time to complete the handoff and look downfield, at this point I see two things: First, the Commander linebackers are still right on top of the offensive linemen. I count all seven defenders from the Commanders front seven still in the box. Second, a safety has proactively made a hard break towards the expected safety outlet, RB Jonathan Taylor. The safety wasn’t lined up here, he didn’t break on the back until the back came out into the flat for a pass, then he closed down 7-10 yards on Taylor at a dead sprint; there was immediate recognition that there was a high likelihood the Colts would need to check down. The throw went to Taylor anyway and he was stopped for no gain. I think Taylor would have been better served picking up the rusher and giving the Colts a shot at a deeper pass.

Next play, I wanted to know if these linebackers would just stick close to the line of scrimmage on play action. This vs the Packers:



Again the linebackers aren’t that deep despite no play action threat. More interesting is what linebacker Jamin Davis did in coverage; he completely ignored the tight end #85 Robert Tonyan as Tonyan ran past and tracked Aaron Jones before the pass was thrown. In this snap, it looks like Tonyan might be covered, it baited Rodgers into the check down that Davis was already lining up for the tackle. The result of this play was a check down to Aaron Jones for a 5-yard loss. There were a ton of options for a play like this: shallow LBs + tightly covered check-down back. One last straight drop back, the Commanders are so focused on not letting the backs get the ball, they leave open the part of the field where Justin Jefferson feasts.



Even when the Packers tried to get a pass to a running back, it didn’t work. Seeing this trend of tracking RBs in the passing game, this example was a fascinating chess match. The Packers put both Jones and Dillon in the backfield (shotgun flanking each side of Rodgers); both ran a route through the same left off tackle hole:



Rodgers looked left like the Packers wanted to get a pass to Jones or Dillon. Both were tightly covered as defenders turned and ran with both of them. Rodgers had to look away to a tight end on the other side of the field.

Commanders running backs on offense
Switching gears, not only do the Commanders cover running backs in the passing game with near religious fervor, they also utilize their backs in the passing game. A lot. Here is a percentage of which teams throw most often to their RB1 + RB2. Vikings are included for comparison. Eagles are included as a low-end comparison as they very rarely throw to RBs.



The Commanders throw more frequently to the backs than teams like the Chargers and Saints who have pass catching savants in their backfields. Does this mean the Commanders are productive on throws to running backs? Not particularly, yards/reception and catch % don’t stand out as notable. But whatever the reason (my best guess: their other players stink), it's important to know they do it a lot so the Vikings need to be prepared for it.

How to Beat the Commanders: Win the running back chess match.
Step one: Accept that the Commanders won’t let Cook or Mattison get anything in the passing game; the Vikings need someone else as a safety outlet. Once they have made their piece with that reality, Cook and Mattison will have to do other things, particularly pick up rushers from an aggressive front. They will also have to sell the play action. They can also pull defenders out of the middle of the field as decoys, that could be extremely valuable. If they do these things, there should be space behind the Washington linebackers for medium passes.

On defense, the Commanders will be taking the opposite approach, looking to pass the ball to their own backs. If the Vikings can give the Commanders a taste of their own medicine and take that away, the Vikings should gain an advantage because Washington relies on that play so much more.