Week 3 is in the books with PFF coming out on top as the only metric predicting a Vikings win. Which is weird, because if ever there was a game where the better playing team lost, it was that one. Looking at this week’s matchup, the Vikings compare very favorably to the Saints.


Starting off with drive stats:


Offense








Defense








Offensively the Vikings have surpassed their 2021 ranking in both points and yards, but it has been a down year for scoring so far this season, and the Vikings are significantly worse at scoring than last season where they put up 2.05 points per drive (PPD). Their 1.81 PPD this season would have had them ranked 24th last season, behind the Lions. The poor time of possession and three and outs are rearing their ugly heads again, making this appear to be more of a personnel issue than a play calling one. The worst part is, that unlike last year where the Vikings were making big plays to make up a little bit for the lack of sustained success, the Vikings are near the bottom of the league in explosive plays. Just three completed passes over 20 yards so far this season. The Saints are just awful all around on offense and 1.34 PPD would have been dead last in 2021. There are rumors they are going to be making a switch at QB, and frankly, I don’t understand why it took them so long. I don’t understand why they made him the starter over other better options who were available like Jimmy G, Bridgewater or any random former high school QB either. The Saints offense doesn’t move the ball well, they turn it over a ton, are bad in the red zone, bad in time of possession, and are just plain bad. The defense should feast this Sunday and might even put together a performance where they not only don’t break, but they don’t bend either.


Speaking of the defense, while their yardage totals are terrible, they are actually doing a very good job keeping the other team from scoring, which is impressive considering two of the three offenses they have faced have been very good. Drive stats indicate the Vikings defense is actually superior to its offense, something most people would be a bit surprised by. One of the biggest reasons for that is the great kickoffs and punts the Vikings have been getting out of their special teams making the opposition make longer drives than just about any other team. The Vikings are starting each defensive series after a score with the opposition needing to move the ball four more yards than the average NFL team and if you take out the two missed 56 yard field goals, probably closer to seven more yards after a punt. That is exactly what you need for this apparent bend don’t break defense. The Saints defense is much better than these stats show and are being hurt dramatically by Winston’s play, similar to what happened in his final year in Tampa. He consistently puts them in a bad spot, making them defend short fields after his poor decision making causes a turnover, and on top of that, his defense is being asked defend more drives than most because of the three and outs and time of possession on offense. They are a top three defense with a better offense and putting up twenty earned points on them will be a win.


More on the special teams front, their kick off coverage is one of the worst in the NFL(27th) and if the Vikings don’t start getting some good returns against them, they might want to consider changing their returner. Nwangwu needs to go off, assuming he gets a chance that is.


DVOA:


Offense






Defense




DVOA isn’t that much different than drive stats, although it does like the offense a bit better and hates the Vikings’ defense a lot more. For the fourth straight week the Vikings will face a good running team, but this week the passing game of the opponent is really bad and the Vikings should be able to sell out to stop the run. DVOA believes Vikings passing offense is slightly above average, their run game is very good while their pass defense is below average and run defense is terrible. Hard to really argue with that. The Saints are more susceptible to the run than the pass on defense, which matches up well with what the Vikings do well on offense. If old school football fans are correct and defense is more important than offense, the Vikings lose this one based on DVOA. If not, the Vikings roll the Saints in an easy victory.



PFF:







Based on the results, PFF has the Saints offense graded way too high. It has been a disaster this season and PFF has them graded as the 12th best offense, just eight behind the Vikings who’s offense is currently graded as the 4th best. One could argue that it is a good offense outside of the QB, but PFF has their passing offense as the 14th best in the NFL. More surprisingly, the Saints’ receivers are grading out significantly higher than the Vikings’, while their running and run blocking are significantly lower. Based on PFF, this would indicate that the Vikings should not focus on stopping the run but should be looking to stop the Saints above average passing offense.


Defensively for the Saints, PFF says their coverage is very good and their pass rushing is very bad. This actually jives with the results on the field, with the Saints best pass rusher having fewer pressures than four of the Vikings pass rushers, and half of the Viking’s best pass rusher. If the pass rush isn’t getting to the QB, the secondary must be playing out of their minds to keep teams from throwing all over them. Run defense grade aside, PFF’s grading on defense looks pretty accurate for both teams based on results and it is tough to argue that coverage is not a liability for the Vikings, while their pass rush is very good.


Bonus UK/Mexico City Stats:

• The “home” team has lost more games than they have won going 13 for 31: A plus for the Vikings
  
• Blowouts are far more common, with 17 out of the 31 ending in a win by two scores or more. For context, only 18 of 48 games have ended with a two or more score margin so far this season: With how unstable the Saints are on offense, this is a plus for the Vikings
• Shutouts are more common over the past 31 games overseas, happening at nearly twice the rate. Low scoring by one opponent is also very high, particularly the home team: Another plus for the Vikings

In summary, for the three straight weeks the numbers overall are slightly favoring the Vikings, with PFF being the stat giving the Vikings the edge once again. The last two games it certainly didn’t feel like the Vikings were the superior team, but they did win one of those two and hopefully that happens again this week. I believe it will and the Vikings win in a blowout 24-10 with one defensive score.