With no Game to preview this week, I took a look backwards at how the Vikings are stacking up against my pre-season look at How the Vikings can be Super Bowl contenders in 2022.

To start with, this a quick refresh on that, a team’s scoring advantage is:
[Scoring more points than average] + [Allowing few points than league average]

The starting point was the 2021 Vikings, the 2021 Vikings score more than average, but also allowed more than average for a net score of almost exactly 0.

2021 Vikings
Advantage from offense: +2.02
Advantage from defense: -2.08
Total disadvantage: -0.06 (0.00 would be perfectly average)

To be a contender, I suggested the Vikings would need to improve to a +6 total.

Vikings Right Now:
NFL Scoring Average is 21.8 Pointer per Game
Vikings are scoring 23.2 Pointer per Game = 1.4 PPG better than average
Vikings are allowed 19.7 Points per Game = 2.1 PPG better than average

Right now the Vikings are at +3.5, improved, but a little below the goal of 6.0.

Why I’m Not Worried
There are several major reason to take this 3.5 number with a large grain of salt.

#1 – Wins. The PPG Advantage is only an analysis of how things might go in the future. Having actual wins is always preferable theoretical future projections. If you look at the Vikings +3.5 and think “Oh no, that number isn’t high enough”, you’re using this information wrong.

#2 – Small Sample Set. With only 6 games played, a single touchdown swings a team’s total number by more than a full point. At this point in the season the Vikings have had enough near misses that, if made, would put them well above the +6 threshold (more on this in the offensive breakdown).

#3 - Coaching Change impact.  There is a wide rang of outcomes when a coach changes.  I don't know how the season will end, but enough football has been played to rule out the highly negative changes.  

Defensive Performance
The Vikings defense has improved from -2 to +2.1 from 2021 to 2022. At the start of the season, if you told me the Vikings would get more than a +4 PPG swing in advantage from their defense, I would have said they are defiantly on track to set themselves up well for the post season and sure enough, at 5-1, they are. The big question about defense becomes, is this sustainable? There is an argument for and against this being sustainable.

The argument for this being sustainable is that there was a highly predicable improvement, and the change is happening exactly as predicted. Looking at the change in defensive performance in the last two minutes of halves:

After being historically bad, some regression towards the mean is almost certain in this category. I think realistic is on the low-to-middle range of this scale, but two-minute drills can be fluky.
Improved late-half scoring defense: +2.5 to 6.0 PPG.

The Vikings defensive performance is right in the middle of the zone for “most likely” improvement. Some of this is likely attributed to Za’Darius Smith playing well.

The argument against the defense sustaining this improvement is that the Vikings are allowing a lot fewer points than expected for the yardage they have given up.



Historically there is a strong correlation between yards and points, so there is risk for regression on defensive points allowed. The Vikings top 5 position in turnovers is helping and the Vikings did give up some garbage time yards, but over the course of a full season, the points / yards gap will likely tighten up. Daniele Hunter getting on track or tightening up safeties would help.


Offensive Performance
The offense is the reason I see upside for the Vikings as the season progresses. There are three reasons for this.

First reason the Vikings offense has left enough plays on the table that they could already be above the +6.0 PPG threshold.  For example, week 2 vs the Eagles when Irv Smith Jr drops this near certain touchdown:



On this play, did play design work? Yes
Did the Vikings players all the physical tools and talent to make this play? Yes
The Eagles won by 17, would a 7 point swing change their record? No, the Vikings would still probably have lost.

But if Irv hangs on, the calculation says the Vikings are +4.7 instead of +3.5. Justin Jefferson missed a route later in the game that was another potential touchdown turned into an interception. Greg Joseph’s Field Goal and Extra Point misses have cost the Vikings 2.2 PPG; he’s not going to hit everything, but there is upside in the kicking game.  

The second reason is potential improvement in the offense. The Vikings aren’t doing a great job sending receivers deep to clear out space for mid-range throws. Here is an example of what it looks like when it works, this was a big gain to Jefferson in the Dolphins game.



Osborn deep clears out a huge space for Jefferson to operate. At the same time, Thielen deep had Irv Smith Jr open for a first down on the other side of the field. The Vikings were great at this in 2021. The Rams were also great at this in 2021 (Van Jefferson and Odel Beckham opened huge spaces for Cooper Kupp). As I’ve looked back at the start of 2022, I just haven’t seen much of this for the Vikings. Instead they have been sending Jefferson deep into double coverage instead of opening space for him.  They have also used tight ends (both Smith and Mundt) deep and that hasn't drawn the coverage away from the receivers.  It seems like only a matter of time before the Vikings start sending Osborn, Thielen, or Reagor deep to make more space for Jefferson to work.

The third reason isn't math or play analysis, it's the fact that the overall offense seems to be underperforming.  The Vikings offense is slightly worse in 2022 (+1.4) than 2021 (+2.1).  This is despite the offensive line is playing better.  Everything is there to suggest that this team has untapped ability to put more points on the board.  

2022 Path Forward
The Vikings are improved over 2021. Their record sets them up well for the next 11 games. There is some risk of regression (especially on defense), I think the potential upside for improvement is larger than the risk of fall off.