[OC] Analysing First Round Picks (Part2)

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[OC] Analysing First Round Picks (Part2) Jul 17, 2020 2:57:04 GMT -6 Reignman, Danchat, and 1 more like this

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Post by Deleted on Jul 17, 2020 2:57:04 GMT -6

Welcome to part 2 of this series,where we will focus on CBs taken in the 1st round to try and come up with an idea of what type of year Jeff Gladney may have.
Trying to get a handle on the chart below,16 of the 36 players taken in the first round have started 9 games or less their rookie year,this includes the 3 Vikings.
The average number of interceptions is 1.9 and the 3 Vikings CBs have 1 between them.As expected,the Viking corners are good tacklers,a trait that is demanded by current HC Mike Zimmer.
Corner is one of the hardest positions for rookies to produce at a high level,and is largely dependent on how quickly a player can pick up the new scheme,some of which can be very complex compared to what the player has done at the college level.
From a Vikings perspective,since arriving in 2014,HC Mike Zimmer has been cautious about throwing rookie corners on the field too early,so it will be interesting to see if this changes with three new starters required and very little time for the rookies to work with the coaching staff.

YEAR PICK#	PLAYER	TEAM	GMS	GMS ST	INTS	YDS	TD	LONG	PASS DEF	FF	SK	COMB TKL	SOLO TKL	ASST	TFL

2010 #7	Joe Hayden	CLE	16	7	6	101	0	62	18	1	1	64	57	7	0
2010 #20	Kareem Jackson	HOU	16	16	2	23	0	23	10	1	0	71	58	13	1
2010 #27	Devin McCourty	NE	16	16	7	110	0	50	17	2	1	82	69	13	3
2011 #5	Patrick Peterson	ARI	16	16	2	1	0	1	13	0	1	64	59	5	1
2011 #19	Prince Amukamara	NYG	7	0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0	14	12	2	0
2011 #27	Jimmy Smith	BAL	12	3	2	48	0	32	8	0	0	20	20	0	0
2012 #6	Morris Claiborne	DAL	15	15	1	0	0	0	8	1	0	55	43	12	1
2012 #10	Stephon Gilmore	BUF	16	16	1	23	0	23	16	2	0	61	52	9	1
2012 #17	Dre Kirkpatrick	CIN	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	4	0	0
2013 #9	Dee Milliner	NYJ	13	12	3	31	0	19	17	0	0	56	45	11	1
2013 #12	DJ Hayden	OAK	8	2	1	0	0	0	2	1	0	25	22	3	0
2013 #23	Desmond Trufant	ATL	16	16	2	0	0	0	17	1	0	70	55	15	1
2013 #25	Xavier Rhodes	MIN	13	6	0	0	0	0	10	1	0	48	41	7	0
2014 #8	Justin Gilbert	CLE	14	2	1	23	1	23	8	0	0	29	25	4	0
2014 #14	Kyle Fuller	CHI	16	14	4	81	0	31	10	3	0	64	51	13	3
2014 #24	Darqueze Dennard	CIN	14	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	17	14	3	1
2014 #25	Jason Verrett	SD	6	4	1	0	0	0	4	0	0	19	18	1	0
2014 #31	Bradley Roby	DEN	16	2	2	0	0	0	13	2	1	65	63	2	5
2015 #11	Trae Waynes	MIN	15	1	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	30	26	4	0
2015 #16	Kevin Johnson	HOU	16	10	1	22	0	22	9	0	0	54	48	6	3
2015 #18	Marcus Peters	KC	16	16	8	280	2	90	26	1	0	60	53	7	2
2015 #27	Byron Jones	DAL	16	11	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	66	47	19	2
2016 #5	Jalen Ramsey	JAX	16	16	2	65	1	35	14	1	0	65	55	10	2
2016 #10	Eli Apple	NYG	14	11	1	0	0	0	7	1	0	51	41	10	4
2016 #11	Vernon Hargreaves	TB	16	16	1	0	0	0	9	1	0	76	68	8	3
2016 #24	William Jackson	CIN	15	5	1	75	1	75	14	0	0	27	21	6	1
2016 #25	Artie Burns	PIT	16	9	3	13	0	0	9	13	0	65	52	13	5
2017 #11	Marshon Lattimore	NOR	13	13	5	85	1	33	18	1	0	52	43	9	1
2017 #16	Marlon Humphrey	BAL	16	5	2	33	0	18	11	0	0	34	30	4	1
2017 #18	Adoree Jackson	TEN	16	16	0	0	0	0	17	3	0	70	61	9	1
2017 #24	Gareon Conley	OAK	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7	5	2	0
2017 #27	Tre'Davious White	BUF	16	16	4	86	0	63	18	1	1	69	53	16	3
2018 #4	Denzel Ward	CLE	13	12	3	26	0	26	11	1	0	53	41	12	5
2018 #18	Jaire Alexander	GB	13	11	1	27	0	27	11	2	0	66	61	5	3
2018 #30	Mike Hughes	MIN	6	2	1	28	1	28	3	1	0	22	19	3	1
2019 #30	Deandre Baker	NYG	16	15	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	61	48	13	2
XXXX	XXXXXXXX	AVG	13.4	9.2	1.9	23.8	0.19	18.9	9.8	1.1	0.16	48.7	39.4	7.6	1.5

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[OC] Analysing First Round Picks (Part2) Jul 17, 2020 6:31:30 GMT -6 slapnut19 likes this

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Post by whoskmoon on Jul 17, 2020 6:31:30 GMT -6

9 CBs drafted in the first round with 2 or fewer starts in their first season and 3 of them(Hughes, Waynes and Fitzpatrick) were coached by Zimmer.

Part of that I believe, is that he doesn't draft CBs in the first when he has a desperate need for them like so many of these other teams, and instead drafts for the future at that spot. Plus, he has always had a pretty good stable of veteran corners, so it has been tough for a rookie to make the starting roster.

vikingbill Team Captain Posts: 1,638 Likes: 732	[OC] Analysing First Round Picks (Part2) Jul 17, 2020 7:30:15 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by vikingbill on Jul 17, 2020 7:30:15 GMT -6 Idk if was Gray or Zim that employs too complicated of a system imo. By the time a rookie cb is up to speed their contract is up. They also seem to coach out cb's looking for Int's.

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[OC] Analysing First Round Picks (Part2) Jul 17, 2020 17:51:58 GMT -6

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Post by Danchat on Jul 17, 2020 17:51:58 GMT -6

Yikes, the 2012-2014 stretch of Claiborne, Milliner, and Gilbert as the 1st CBs taken are pretty bad. I was fearing Waynes would bust due to this, and he did end up better than those, but still didn't live up to expectations.

McCourty and Haden had 13 combined interceptions in their rookie years? Dang!

It should be noted that William Jackson III missed his entire rookie season and his "rookie" year was actually the year after he was drafted. Didn't play a snap until he was almost 25 years old!

Jul 17, 2020 6:31:30 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

9 CBs drafted in the first round with 2 or fewer starts in their first season and 3 of them(Hughes, Waynes and Fitzpatrick) were coached by Zimmer.

Part of that I believe, is that he doesn't draft CBs in the first when he has a desperate need for them like so many of these other teams, and instead drafts for the future at that spot. Plus, he has always had a pretty good stable of veteran corners, so it has been tough for a rookie to make the starting roster.

I think Gladney is going to change that - first, we have no proven guys at CB with only Hughes clearly going to be a starter, and second, Gladney played a ton at TCU. He's started 42 games over 4 years there, and he's already 24. Barring injury he'll be in the starting lineup. I expect Dantzler to get the developmental treatment - he's started 22 games and will turn 22 in October.

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[OC] Analysing First Round Picks (Part2) Jul 17, 2020 18:05:19 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Jul 17, 2020 18:05:19 GMT -6

Jul 17, 2020 17:51:58 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Yikes, the 2012-2014 stretch of Claiborne, Milliner, and Gilbert as the 1st CBs taken are pretty bad. I was fearing Waynes would bust due to this, and he did end up better than those, but still didn't live up to expectations.

McCourty and Haden had 13 combined interceptions in their rookie years? Dang!

It should be noted that William Jackson III missed his entire rookie season and his "rookie" year was actually the year after he was drafted. Didn't play a snap until he was almost 25 years old!

Jul 17, 2020 6:31:30 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

9 CBs drafted in the first round with 2 or fewer starts in their first season and 3 of them(Hughes, Waynes and Fitzpatrick) were coached by Zimmer.

Part of that I believe, is that he doesn't draft CBs in the first when he has a desperate need for them like so many of these other teams, and instead drafts for the future at that spot. Plus, he has always had a pretty good stable of veteran corners, so it has been tough for a rookie to make the starting roster.

I think Gladney is going to change that - first, we have no proven guys at CB with only Hughes clearly going to be a starter, and second, Gladney played a ton at TCU. He's started 42 games over 4 years there, and he's already 24. Barring injury he'll be in the starting lineup. I expect Dantzler to get the developmental treatment - he's started 22 games and will turn 22 in October.

I think so too. Zimmer's disdain for rookies has really only been proven true on offense, where Teddy, ONeil and Diggs were clearly better option than the starter ahead of them, but they sat early in the season anyway. On defense Barr started Week 1 of his rookie year, and while Kendricks had to wait until week 4 to technically start and was better than Hodges in front of him, it didn't take an injury for Zimmer to move to him the way it did the guys on offense. It also only took 1 week for Zimmer to decide to give Kendricks more snaps than Hodges and Greenway.

Hunter, Waynes and Hughes had legitimate reasons they didn't start more weeks on D as rookies. Gladney won't have those reasons unless he struggles a lot in camp.

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[OC] Analysing First Round Picks (Part2) Jul 19, 2020 18:06:37 GMT -6

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Post by Purple Pain on Jul 19, 2020 18:06:37 GMT -6

Related piece:

ZC: Using Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes and Mike Hughes' Rookie Production to Predict Jeff Gladney's Numbers in Year 1

The Minnesota Vikings addressed one of the biggest needs on their team with their second pick of the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft when they took TCU cornerback, Jeff Gladney. Even with a shortened preseason, he’ll be thrust into action early in his career.

To help predict what his future production could look like, we’ll go back to the past. Looking back at what type of rookie production the last three cornerbacks the Vikings took in the first round had can give us a sense of what we can expect from the latest Vikings cornerback to be taken in the draft’s first stanza.

...

If Gladney produces at the average of the last three choices over a 16 game span, he’ll play in 562 snaps, with 50 total tackles, one tackle for a loss, eight pass breakups, and one interception. That seems like a very realistic stat line for Gladney his rookie season. The Vikings will be asking a lot of out this youngster right out of the gate, and he’ll see plenty of work. If he stays healthy and plays in every game, the Vikings would be pretty happy with that kind of production out of this exciting young corner in year one.

Rest at link:

zonecoverage.com/2020/minnesota-vikings-news/using-xavier-rhodes-trae-waynes-and-mike-hughes-rookie-production-to-predict-jeff-gladneys-numbers-in-year-1/

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[OC] Analysing First Round Picks (Part2) Jul 24, 2020 9:01:46 GMT -6

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Post by VikingsBoss on Jul 24, 2020 9:01:46 GMT -6

Jul 17, 2020 18:05:19 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Jul 17, 2020 17:51:58 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Yikes, the 2012-2014 stretch of Claiborne, Milliner, and Gilbert as the 1st CBs taken are pretty bad. I was fearing Waynes would bust due to this, and he did end up better than those, but still didn't live up to expectations.

McCourty and Haden had 13 combined interceptions in their rookie years? Dang!

It should be noted that William Jackson III missed his entire rookie season and his "rookie" year was actually the year after he was drafted. Didn't play a snap until he was almost 25 years old!

I think Gladney is going to change that - first, we have no proven guys at CB with only Hughes clearly going to be a starter, and second, Gladney played a ton at TCU. He's started 42 games over 4 years there, and he's already 24. Barring injury he'll be in the starting lineup. I expect Dantzler to get the developmental treatment - he's started 22 games and will turn 22 in October.

I think so too. Zimmer's disdain for rookies has really only been proven true on offense, where Teddy, ONeil and Diggs were clearly better option than the starter ahead of them, but they sat early in the season anyway. On defense Barr started Week 1 of his rookie year, and while Kendricks had to wait until week 4 to technically start and was better than Hodges in front of him, it didn't take an injury for Zimmer to move to him the way it did the guys on offense. It also only took 1 week for Zimmer to decide to give Kendricks more snaps than Hodges and Greenway.

Hunter, Waynes and Hughes had legitimate reasons they didn't start more weeks on D as rookies. Gladney won't have those reasons unless he struggles a lot in camp.

Hughes started two games his rookie year and played 71.7% of the snaps in the five games before he was injured...100% of them the week before he got hurt.

Teddy was not CLEARLY a better option to start 2014 than Cassel, and his uneven performances the first month proved that...he had thrown four interceptions before he threw his first TD. O'Neill was supposed to be a project, and that he played as well as he did doesn't mean it was a no-brainer to put him out there ahead of Hill-as average as he is-to start the season. Diggs? Yeah, that made zero sense but it may have been a Norv-thing.

The Cardinals have knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs! NO!-Paul Allen, December 28th, 2003

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[OC] Analysing First Round Picks (Part2) Jul 24, 2020 11:31:27 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Jul 24, 2020 11:31:27 GMT -6

Jul 24, 2020 9:01:46 GMT -6 VikingsBoss said:

Jul 17, 2020 18:05:19 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

I think so too. Zimmer's disdain for rookies has really only been proven true on offense, where Teddy, ONeil and Diggs were clearly better option than the starter ahead of them, but they sat early in the season anyway. On defense Barr started Week 1 of his rookie year, and while Kendricks had to wait until week 4 to technically start and was better than Hodges in front of him, it didn't take an injury for Zimmer to move to him the way it did the guys on offense. It also only took 1 week for Zimmer to decide to give Kendricks more snaps than Hodges and Greenway.

Hunter, Waynes and Hughes had legitimate reasons they didn't start more weeks on D as rookies. Gladney won't have those reasons unless he struggles a lot in camp.

Hughes started two games his rookie year and played 71.7% of the snaps in the five games before he was injured...100% of them the week before he got hurt.

Teddy was not CLEARLY a better option to start 2014 than Cassel, and his uneven performances the first month proved that...he had thrown four interceptions before he threw his first TD. O'Neill was supposed to be a project, and that he played as well as he did doesn't mean it was a no-brainer to put him out there ahead of Hill-as average as he is-to start the season. Diggs? Yeah, that made zero sense but it may have been a Norv-thing.

Cassel 2014 stats:
41-71 425 yards, 3 TDs, 4 Ints, 5.99 YPA and a 65.8 passer rating.

A rookie QB is going to come out of the gate struggling and Teddy did do that, but Teddy's very first start was better than anything Cassel did that season, even if Asiata ended up punching it in the goal line 3 times instead of Teddy throwing it in. He was clearly better all through training camp and preseason and should have been starting week 1.

It doesn't matter what draft experts say about O'Neil. The Vikings had him in camp saw he was ready, and started a lesser tackle in front of him anyway.

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[OC] Analysing First Round Picks (Part2) Jul 26, 2020 0:06:23 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Jul 26, 2020 0:06:23 GMT -6

Oooo spiffy chart you got there Aus man. *thumb_up*

I'll have to go find part 1 now xD.

Jul 17, 2020 2:57:04 GMT -6 @aussie61 said:

From a Vikings perspective,since arriving in 2014,HC Mike Zimmer has been cautious about throwing rookie corners on the field too early

I don't get it either. I mean it's fine that he wants to be cautious with rookies, but why is he being this cautious with first round picks? When I think of first round picks, I think of guys who should be able to start day 1. It's like he's drafting projects round 1. Not necessarily talent wise, but the way he treats them. And other than Rhodes for a short time, I can't really say any of them turned out all that great. And he didn't even draft Rhodes. How bout we spend those first round picks on positions that can start right away, and take those CB projects a little later? Hill shows more promise than Waynes, Hughes, and Alexander, and he was a UDFA. It's just too bad Zim holds a grudge for too long.

I try to forget that we took Waynes ahead of Peters and his 8 INT's, now 27 for his career including 6 pick 6's. All the CB's Zimmer has drafted have a combined 11 career INT's (Waynes 7, Alexender and Hughes 2 each). To be fair, had we taken Peters, he'd probably be the one at 7 career INT's and Waynes at 27.

Jul 17, 2020 7:30:15 GMT -6 vikingbill said:

They also seem to coach out cb's looking for Int's.

Right? I don't get what Zimmers aversion is to having ball-hawking CB's. He's almost as bad as Frazier is in that department. It's proof that these guys aren't into analytics because when you realize teams with just a +1 turnover advantage win 75% of their games, regardless of what else happens in a game, you'd think you'd focus a little more on generating turnovers. That's a 12-4 record right there. My entire defensive philosophy would be centered around taking the ball away.

Oct 10, 2021 12:36:51 GMT -6 HunterMorrow said:

Skol Vikings, coinflip the game. Skol Vikings, scoring is lame. Go get a 3-n-out. Then get another 3-n-out. Rock 'em . . . Sock 'em, PUNT! PUNT! PUNT! Go Vikings, run out the clock. You'll hear us yell Kwesi sucks. . . V-I-K-I-N-G-S Skol, Vikings, let's flop!

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[OC] Analysing First Round Picks (Part2) Jul 26, 2020 12:23:13 GMT -6 Reignman likes this

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Post by Danchat on Jul 26, 2020 12:23:13 GMT -6

Jul 26, 2020 0:06:23 GMT -6 Reignman said:

try to forget that we took Waynes ahead of Peters and his 8 INT's, now 27 for his career including 6 pick 6's. All the CB's Zimmer has drafted have a combined 11 career INT's (Waynes 7, Alexender and Hughes 2 each). To be fair, had we taken Peters, he'd probably be the one at 7 career INT's and Waynes at 27.

The NFL as a whole doesn't seem to care about Marcus Peters' accomplishments... heck, the Chiefs traded him for the rather low return of a 4th and future 2nd, and then last year he was traded for a backup LB and a 5th.

Also, check this out:

Bengals new deal with Trae Waynes: 3 years, $42M
Marcus Peters' extension with Ravens: 3 years, $42M

*skeptic*

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[OC] Analysing First Round Picks (Part2) Jul 26, 2020 18:03:42 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Jul 26, 2020 18:03:42 GMT -6

Jul 26, 2020 0:06:23 GMT -6 Reignman said:

Oooo spiffy chart you got there Aus man. *thumb_up*

I'll have to go find part 1 now xD.

Jul 17, 2020 2:57:04 GMT -6 @aussie61 said:

From a Vikings perspective,since arriving in 2014,HC Mike Zimmer has been cautious about throwing rookie corners on the field too early

I don't get it either. I mean it's fine that he wants to be cautious with rookies, but why is he being this cautious with first round picks? When I think of first round picks, I think of guys who should be able to start day 1. It's like he's drafting projects round 1. Not necessarily talent wise, but the way he treats them. And other than Rhodes for a short time, I can't really say any of them turned out all that great. And he didn't even draft Rhodes. How bout we spend those first round picks on positions that can start right away, and take those CB projects a little later? Hill shows more promise than Waynes, Hughes, and Alexander, and he was a UDFA. It's just too bad Zim holds a grudge for too long.

I try to forget that we took Waynes ahead of Peters and his 8 INT's, now 27 for his career including 6 pick 6's. All the CB's Zimmer has drafted have a combined 11 career INT's (Waynes 7, Alexender and Hughes 2 each). To be fair, had we taken Peters, he'd probably be the one at 7 career INT's and Waynes at 27.

Jul 17, 2020 7:30:15 GMT -6 vikingbill said:

They also seem to coach out cb's looking for Int's.

Right? I don't get what Zimmers aversion is to having ball-hawking CB's. He's almost as bad as Frazier is in that department. It's proof that these guys aren't into analytics because when you realize teams with just a +1 turnover advantage win 75% of their games, regardless of what else happens in a game, you'd think you'd focus a little more on generating turnovers. That's a 12-4 record right there. My entire defensive philosophy would be centered around taking the ball away.

Interesting.

So would you say last year was the best season on defense for the Vikings, seeing as how they were #3 in takeaways per drive behind only NE and Pitt?

Most people would point to 2017 as being the best defense under Zimmer, but they were 22nd in takeaways that year. #2 in points given up per drive.

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[OC] Analysing First Round Picks (Part2) Aug 1, 2020 3:04:23 GMT -6

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Post by Reignman on Aug 1, 2020 3:04:23 GMT -6

Jul 26, 2020 12:23:13 GMT -6 Danchat said:

The NFL as a whole doesn't seem to care about Marcus Peters' accomplishments... heck, the Chiefs traded him for the rather low return of a 4th and future 2nd, and then last year he was traded for a backup LB and a 5th.

Also, check this out:

Bengals new deal with Trae Waynes: 3 years, $42M
Marcus Peters' extension with Ravens: 3 years, $42M

Isn't that more related to off-field or personality problems than talent? I thought the Vikings were good at handling problem players? Either way, I stand by my argument that Peters wouldn't have had those kind of numbers had the Vikings drafted him. He might not have started until year 3 haha.

Jul 26, 2020 18:03:42 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Interesting.

So would you say last year was the best season on defense for the Vikings, seeing as how they were #3 in takeaways per drive behind only NE and Pitt?

Most people would point to 2017 as being the best defense under Zimmer, but they were 22nd in takeaways that year. #2 in points given up per drive.

Our 2019 takeaway numbers are misleading because 15 of them came in one game against the Chargers. ;P

Teams do in fact win 75% of the time with just a +1 takeaway advantage, and just because the Vikings ranked high in that category, once, doesn't necessarily mean it's part of Zimmers philosophy. Those who desire to be in Championship Mindset Club are going to look for every advantage they can find and exploit it, and you can't argue with an advantage like 75%. You can't just rely on turnovers falling into your lap, like the 2019 Vikings, you want to try to make them happen, like the 1985 Bears, 2000 Ravens, 2002 Bucs, and 2013 Seahawks. Teams that have hardware in the trophy case.

Oct 10, 2021 12:36:51 GMT -6 HunterMorrow said:

Skol Vikings, coinflip the game. Skol Vikings, scoring is lame. Go get a 3-n-out. Then get another 3-n-out. Rock 'em . . . Sock 'em, PUNT! PUNT! PUNT! Go Vikings, run out the clock. You'll hear us yell Kwesi sucks. . . V-I-K-I-N-G-S Skol, Vikings, let's flop!