[OC] Evaluating 2019 CB Play, Vikings-Focused
It seems to me that most NFL fans say that their team's CBs suck. In the modern NFL game, playing coverage is incredibly difficult, as fast WRs can blow by you, tall TEs can tower over you and get away with offensive pass interference, and the referees will be looking to throw penalty flags at you thanks to harsher coverage rules. From holding, illegal contact, and defensive pass interference, a cornerback must be a tough player without being too grabby.
There also doesn't seem to be much of a consensus on the ranking of CBs - I'm sure you've see plenty of top 10s out there, but I'm more interested in ranking everyone and finding out how many truly good, average, and awful CBs there are. Let's take a dive into trying to quantify the performances of CBs.
PlayerProfiler.com has recently become a favorite source of mine, as they are one of the primary tracker of coverage stats. For this article, I will be using Targets, Receptions Allowed, Yards Allowed, TDs Allowed, and Passes Broken Up. The targets and receptions are based off if the CB was the closest man to the play, or if it was clear he was assigned to the receiver. This means that these stats aren't perfect for obvious reasons. I had originally thought of combining this with some PFF stats, but I tossed their scores after seeing how little they matched up with PlayerProfiler.
I have combined these stats into a single number that I will use to grade CBs. The CB Grade will rank a player from 0 to 10, with 10 being the best possible performance. Here is how the stat breaks down:
60% based of passer rating when thrown at
30% based on rate of playmaking (interception or pass defended)
10% based on how often QBs threw at a CB
+ a small boost for CBs who played more snaps
PlayerProfiler's stats allowed me to calculate a QB's passer rating when throwing at a CB, and is the backbone of these ratings. I also wanted to reward CBs who deflected passes away more often and give them an extra boost from making an interception, so the Playmaking score will do just that. I also gave a small boost to CBs that QBs tended to avoid, since the Passer Rating does not give a boost to CBs who QBs won't dare to throw at. Finally, I put in a small boost for the number of snaps a CB played so that small sample size CBs would not float to the top due to not getting tested enough. I figure that CBs who don't play all the snaps and rotate in are fresher and likely play better when they can take more breaks, unlike a full-time CB who will rarely come off the field.
After going through 95 CBs and recording their stats into my spreadsheet, the final numbers ranged from 9.07 to 1.7. The average score was 4.46. Here's a quick tier system for determining what a grade means:
(Number of players per tier in parenthesis)
9+ HOF Level (1)
7.5 -> 9 Elite (2)
6 -> 7.5 Very good (8)
4.8 -> 6 Above Average (26)
4.2 -> 4.8 Average (17)
3 -> 4.2 Below Average (25)
1.5 -> 3 Very bad (16)
1.5- Beyond Abysmal (0)
The replacement level ended up being 3.04. For those unfamiliar with this concept, this means that if you pulled a random backup or free agent CB off the street, you would get about a 3.04 level of play from them.
This number was calculated by subtracting the average by a single standard deviation (1.42).
First, let's take a look at how the Vikings in 2019 ended up on this list.
Here's an image from my spreadsheet:
#49 - Mike Hughes 4.41
The good news is that the one CB who is still left with the team played the best according to my metrics. The bad news is that our CB group was clearly not good when their best player nabbed a slightly below average score. Hughes allowed 58% of passes that came his way to be completed for just 11.56 yards per catch (both below average numbers, in a good way). His playmaking score was easily the highest on the team, though that's more of an indictment on the rest of the guys on this team. The only truly negative stat he has here is that teams threw at him every 5 snaps he was out there, which is a very high number. The Vikings will be depending on him to be a full-timer next year, and in a limited role he showed off his skills in a year where he missed the entire offseason. His biggest roadblock will be staying healthy.
#51 - Mackensie Alexander 4.38
Alexander had a decent year as the Vikings' nickel CB, but hit free agency with a thud and barely made any money. He had similar numbers to Hughes, with 59% completion and 11.2 yards per catch allowed, and QBs targeted him the least compared to the other 3 Vikings' CBs. The biggest negative for him is playmaking ability - he knocked down only 3 passes and made a single interception. It's too bad they couldn't bring him back, as the Bengals should get their money's worth for him.
#81 - Trae Waynes 2.97
Wow, I did not expect Waynes to fall below replacement level! Opposing QBs went after Waynes (5.8 targets per snap), as he gave up 757 yards on 59 catches and 6 TDs. That makes for a 104.8 passer rating against, which is a rather poor number. Waynes also has terrible ball skills, and ended up with 5 knockdowns and a single interception (that happened in garbage time). Waynes' only true strength is his pure speed, which prevents him from getting burned deep, but his poor ball skills makes him an easy target for strong WRs to bully. The Bengals paid him $14M a year on a free agent deal, whch seems like a blatant waste of money.
#93 - Xavier Rhodes 2.4
How the mighty have fallen. Rhodes had a mediocre 2018 season, but plummeted to rock bottom in 2019, finishing as the 3rd worst CB by my metrics. He allowed a whopping 75.6% passes to be completed (3rd worst in the NFL). He failed to intercept a single pass, and QBs that went his way had a 121 passer rating when doing so. He managed to knock down 9 passes, but no longer
has the ability to run with WRs on deep routes. The Colts will try to fix him on a one year deal, but I have a hard time seeing him crack their starting lineup. His days of being an effective CB are likely over now.
Since the Vikings could use a veteran CB, let's see who's still out there on the free agent market.
Top Free Agents Available:
#1 Tramon Williams - #13, 5.89
Despite being a 36 year old nickel CB, Williams defied the odds and had another great season in 2019. He allowed just 52% of passes his way to be completed, and was a slightly above average playmaker. He may be 37 next year, but a wise team should offer him a small one year deal.
#2 Logan Ryan - #24, 5.44
Ryan had a below average season as a pure coverage corner, though it should be worth mentioning that he had 4.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. Ryan operated as the Titans' #2 CB and was the NFL's 2nd most highly targeted CB, giving up 938 yards and 5 TDs. Throw in the 5 interceptions and 10 knockdowns, and Ryan is the definition of a boom-or-bust player. He's apparently asked for at least $10M a year, which for obvious reasons has scared away any potential suitors.
#3 Darqueze Dennard - #27, 5.24
Dennard had a 3 year, $13.5M deal fall through with the Jaguars, and now he remains a free agent. Dennard missed part of the year with an injury, but the 28 year old had a quality season as the Bengals' nickel CB. He allowed just 9 yards per catch and gave up a total of 207 yards and 0 TDs. He'd be an upgrade to several teams' secondaries.
#4 Ross Cockrell - #34, 5.01
I find it hard to believe that 4 of the top 34 CBs are free agents, but here we are. Cockrell played some slot and some outside, and has a track record as a quality #2 CB despite playing on 4 different teams over his 5 year career. He managed to have a high playmaker score with 9 knockdowns and 2 interceptions and
#5 Tramaine Brock - #61, 3.8
A true journeyman, Brock was the Cardinals' #2 CB before getting cut midseason. His play wasn't quite bad enough to deserve being cut, as he allowed a low yards per catch and was not targeted heavily by opposing QBs, but he did give up 68% of passes to be completed and was a subpar playmaker.
#6 Brandon Carr - 3.18 - A veteran CB who moved to safety midseason and has never missed a game. Even in Baltimore's DB friendly defense, he showed zero playmaking ability and gave up 502 yards and 4 TDs.
#7 Daryl Worley - 3.09 - A young CB who has played a lot over his first four years, but just hasn't cut it in coverage.
#8 B.W. Webb - 2.6 - Webb had to start nearly the whole year for the Bengals and actively hurt the team with his play.
If you are interested in reading more, I have posted Part 2 in the NFL Talk Forums where I will cover how the rest of the league did at CB. Here is an excerpt:
Worst CB Groups based solely on 2019 play:
#28 - Vikings
Only a couple of years ago this unit was locking teams down, but now it has been gutted. Only Mike Hughes remains - though, the departures of Rhodes and Waynes is actually a positive according to my metrics. Still, the Vikings are left with nobody to take on other teams' #1 WRs, and it will be up to 1st rounder Jeff Gladney, 3rd rounder Cameron Dantzler, and the suspension-plagued Holton Hill to rebuild the position. Expect some rough outings from this squad as they figure things out.
If you are interested in seeing the entire spreadsheet of CB Grades, you can reach it here on this google sheet.
What do you think of my CB grading system? Do you think it fairly portrays them, and if not, what should be changed in my formula? Where there any players who you were surprised by their ranking?
There also doesn't seem to be much of a consensus on the ranking of CBs - I'm sure you've see plenty of top 10s out there, but I'm more interested in ranking everyone and finding out how many truly good, average, and awful CBs there are. Let's take a dive into trying to quantify the performances of CBs.
PlayerProfiler.com has recently become a favorite source of mine, as they are one of the primary tracker of coverage stats. For this article, I will be using Targets, Receptions Allowed, Yards Allowed, TDs Allowed, and Passes Broken Up. The targets and receptions are based off if the CB was the closest man to the play, or if it was clear he was assigned to the receiver. This means that these stats aren't perfect for obvious reasons. I had originally thought of combining this with some PFF stats, but I tossed their scores after seeing how little they matched up with PlayerProfiler.
I have combined these stats into a single number that I will use to grade CBs. The CB Grade will rank a player from 0 to 10, with 10 being the best possible performance. Here is how the stat breaks down:
60% based of passer rating when thrown at
30% based on rate of playmaking (interception or pass defended)
10% based on how often QBs threw at a CB
+ a small boost for CBs who played more snaps
PlayerProfiler's stats allowed me to calculate a QB's passer rating when throwing at a CB, and is the backbone of these ratings. I also wanted to reward CBs who deflected passes away more often and give them an extra boost from making an interception, so the Playmaking score will do just that. I also gave a small boost to CBs that QBs tended to avoid, since the Passer Rating does not give a boost to CBs who QBs won't dare to throw at. Finally, I put in a small boost for the number of snaps a CB played so that small sample size CBs would not float to the top due to not getting tested enough. I figure that CBs who don't play all the snaps and rotate in are fresher and likely play better when they can take more breaks, unlike a full-time CB who will rarely come off the field.
After going through 95 CBs and recording their stats into my spreadsheet, the final numbers ranged from 9.07 to 1.7. The average score was 4.46. Here's a quick tier system for determining what a grade means:
(Number of players per tier in parenthesis)
9+ HOF Level (1)
7.5 -> 9 Elite (2)
6 -> 7.5 Very good (8)
4.8 -> 6 Above Average (26)
4.2 -> 4.8 Average (17)
3 -> 4.2 Below Average (25)
1.5 -> 3 Very bad (16)
1.5- Beyond Abysmal (0)
The replacement level ended up being 3.04. For those unfamiliar with this concept, this means that if you pulled a random backup or free agent CB off the street, you would get about a 3.04 level of play from them.
This number was calculated by subtracting the average by a single standard deviation (1.42).
First, let's take a look at how the Vikings in 2019 ended up on this list.
Here's an image from my spreadsheet:
#49 - Mike Hughes 4.41
The good news is that the one CB who is still left with the team played the best according to my metrics. The bad news is that our CB group was clearly not good when their best player nabbed a slightly below average score. Hughes allowed 58% of passes that came his way to be completed for just 11.56 yards per catch (both below average numbers, in a good way). His playmaking score was easily the highest on the team, though that's more of an indictment on the rest of the guys on this team. The only truly negative stat he has here is that teams threw at him every 5 snaps he was out there, which is a very high number. The Vikings will be depending on him to be a full-timer next year, and in a limited role he showed off his skills in a year where he missed the entire offseason. His biggest roadblock will be staying healthy.
#51 - Mackensie Alexander 4.38
Alexander had a decent year as the Vikings' nickel CB, but hit free agency with a thud and barely made any money. He had similar numbers to Hughes, with 59% completion and 11.2 yards per catch allowed, and QBs targeted him the least compared to the other 3 Vikings' CBs. The biggest negative for him is playmaking ability - he knocked down only 3 passes and made a single interception. It's too bad they couldn't bring him back, as the Bengals should get their money's worth for him.
#81 - Trae Waynes 2.97
Wow, I did not expect Waynes to fall below replacement level! Opposing QBs went after Waynes (5.8 targets per snap), as he gave up 757 yards on 59 catches and 6 TDs. That makes for a 104.8 passer rating against, which is a rather poor number. Waynes also has terrible ball skills, and ended up with 5 knockdowns and a single interception (that happened in garbage time). Waynes' only true strength is his pure speed, which prevents him from getting burned deep, but his poor ball skills makes him an easy target for strong WRs to bully. The Bengals paid him $14M a year on a free agent deal, whch seems like a blatant waste of money.
#93 - Xavier Rhodes 2.4
How the mighty have fallen. Rhodes had a mediocre 2018 season, but plummeted to rock bottom in 2019, finishing as the 3rd worst CB by my metrics. He allowed a whopping 75.6% passes to be completed (3rd worst in the NFL). He failed to intercept a single pass, and QBs that went his way had a 121 passer rating when doing so. He managed to knock down 9 passes, but no longer
has the ability to run with WRs on deep routes. The Colts will try to fix him on a one year deal, but I have a hard time seeing him crack their starting lineup. His days of being an effective CB are likely over now.
Since the Vikings could use a veteran CB, let's see who's still out there on the free agent market.
Top Free Agents Available:
#1 Tramon Williams - #13, 5.89
Despite being a 36 year old nickel CB, Williams defied the odds and had another great season in 2019. He allowed just 52% of passes his way to be completed, and was a slightly above average playmaker. He may be 37 next year, but a wise team should offer him a small one year deal.
#2 Logan Ryan - #24, 5.44
Ryan had a below average season as a pure coverage corner, though it should be worth mentioning that he had 4.5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles. Ryan operated as the Titans' #2 CB and was the NFL's 2nd most highly targeted CB, giving up 938 yards and 5 TDs. Throw in the 5 interceptions and 10 knockdowns, and Ryan is the definition of a boom-or-bust player. He's apparently asked for at least $10M a year, which for obvious reasons has scared away any potential suitors.
#3 Darqueze Dennard - #27, 5.24
Dennard had a 3 year, $13.5M deal fall through with the Jaguars, and now he remains a free agent. Dennard missed part of the year with an injury, but the 28 year old had a quality season as the Bengals' nickel CB. He allowed just 9 yards per catch and gave up a total of 207 yards and 0 TDs. He'd be an upgrade to several teams' secondaries.
#4 Ross Cockrell - #34, 5.01
I find it hard to believe that 4 of the top 34 CBs are free agents, but here we are. Cockrell played some slot and some outside, and has a track record as a quality #2 CB despite playing on 4 different teams over his 5 year career. He managed to have a high playmaker score with 9 knockdowns and 2 interceptions and
#5 Tramaine Brock - #61, 3.8
A true journeyman, Brock was the Cardinals' #2 CB before getting cut midseason. His play wasn't quite bad enough to deserve being cut, as he allowed a low yards per catch and was not targeted heavily by opposing QBs, but he did give up 68% of passes to be completed and was a subpar playmaker.
#6 Brandon Carr - 3.18 - A veteran CB who moved to safety midseason and has never missed a game. Even in Baltimore's DB friendly defense, he showed zero playmaking ability and gave up 502 yards and 4 TDs.
#7 Daryl Worley - 3.09 - A young CB who has played a lot over his first four years, but just hasn't cut it in coverage.
#8 B.W. Webb - 2.6 - Webb had to start nearly the whole year for the Bengals and actively hurt the team with his play.
If you are interested in reading more, I have posted Part 2 in the NFL Talk Forums where I will cover how the rest of the league did at CB. Here is an excerpt:
Worst CB Groups based solely on 2019 play:
#28 - Vikings
Only a couple of years ago this unit was locking teams down, but now it has been gutted. Only Mike Hughes remains - though, the departures of Rhodes and Waynes is actually a positive according to my metrics. Still, the Vikings are left with nobody to take on other teams' #1 WRs, and it will be up to 1st rounder Jeff Gladney, 3rd rounder Cameron Dantzler, and the suspension-plagued Holton Hill to rebuild the position. Expect some rough outings from this squad as they figure things out.
If you are interested in seeing the entire spreadsheet of CB Grades, you can reach it here on this google sheet.
What do you think of my CB grading system? Do you think it fairly portrays them, and if not, what should be changed in my formula? Where there any players who you were surprised by their ranking?