[OC] Vikings at Broncos Strat-O-Matic Simulation
Welcome to a brand new series exclusive to Purple Pain - Strat-O-Matic Simulation! In anticipation of the Vikings-Broncos game tonight, I'm kicking off a new series that I plan to run once a month (four games, five/six if playoffs) and this is the test run. The goal will be to simulate the game with the most realistic results possible...
But first, what is Strat-o-Matic Football?
Here's a picture of my set-up. You'll notice that in addition to the standard board game, I have a bevy of add-ons that I've made myself over the years.
The original way to play the game can be seen here:
Oh yeah, we've got the 2008 Vikings here! As you can see, the normal way to play the game is to have a deck of cards for each team and every player has their own results dependent on dice rolls. However, the 2018 rosters won't be available for at least another year and they're quite expensive. So what did I do? Yup, I created my own system so that I can plug in any team with any players without creating their own cards or buying anything. You sure learn how to be creative when you're a cheapskate!
Now, before we go any further, let's see how the gameplay works. See below:
On a typical play, you will first have the offense call a play. Your choices are linebuck, off-tackle, end run (running plays) or flat pass, short pass, or long pass (passes). You will then select a player of whom will be running the ball or catching the football. In this situation, I've selected "Short Pass" and "Split End", so Kirk Cousins will be throwing a pass to Stefon Diggs here. Next, the defense (usually a second player) chooses to expect either the run or the pass. I also play the defense, and I randomly select one of the two, but I do have the defense defend the pass in obvious passing situations and vice versa.
You'll see I've rolled the dice and ended up with a 5-11. The white die determines whether we use the QB card or the Defense Card (1-3 QB, 4-6 Def). Since I rolled a 5, we'll refer to the Defense Passing Chart that I'm pointing to. We then choose the skill of the defense - either "Very Poor, Poor, Average to Poor, Average to Good, Good, or Great" - and find the number that the two red die add up to. Since it's an 11, Diggs has caught a 12 yard pass. They'll now have a first down at the 37 yard line (see on the right).
As you can guess, there's a ton of strategy here - linebucks are runs up the middle that don't give you a ton of yards but usually don't fail, throwing deep leads to more sacks and interceptions but can result in huge plays - and on.
I'm sure you still have many questions, so I'll try to answer them. Wondering how the players' talent level works?
I've got most of the Vikings QBs, HBs, FBs, WRs, TEs, and special teams here. For QBs, I had to determine short, medium, and deep accuracy, awareness (throwing interceptions), and scrambling ability. HBs have their own strengths for the three type of running plays and receiving ability, WRs and TEs' ratings are Catching-Speed based, and so on. To calculate these ratings, I looked at stats, PFF ratings, Madden ratings, and other sources. It's rather subjective, but that's what makes it my simulation. The opponent's defense is also placed here and ranked: the Broncos have one of the best run defenses in the league, but their pass defense stinks (based on 2017 stats).
Here's the receiving and passing charts. Each one is basically a generic player card that changes depending on the player's talent. The changes are color-coded so that receivers with high Catch ratings catch more passes, faster receivers get more yards, accurate QBs complete more passes, and risky QBs throw more interceptions, and so on. I put a lot of work into these charts, trying to make sure the numbers would balance with yards per play... there's a lot of complexity here.
Alright, here's one more chart for you: we've got some varied yardage plays above with interception return scenarios, a whole bunch of penalties, and special teams. If you were wondering what the black die was for, one side has an X that causes a penalty in conjunction with a white 1-3 (there's a 1/12 chance of getting a penalty). After that, there will be a 50-50 chance of either team receiving the penalty, and the specific one will be rolled for. I looked up penalty stats to figure out which ones happen most frequently. The kick and punt return results are also based on statistics and better returners will get more yards and more TDs.
Alright, let's finally get onto the game! Since this is a preseason game, I'll be playing the starters for a few drives and pulling them for the backups. As I said earlier, I'm aiming for accuracy here... not for the Vikings to win by 100 points or something ridiculous like that.
Vikings at Broncos Preseason Week 1 - Box Score
(other stats - penalties: MIN 12, DEN 4. Two fumbles (HB Freeman and CB Hughes) were both recovered by the team that lost it, so no turnovers. One sack by DEN (OLB Bradley Chubb))
- Game Summary -
1st Quarter
DEN 38 yard FG is good (3-0).
MIN 48 yard TD pass Cousins to Diggs (7-3).
DEN punt.
MIN punt.
2nd Quarter
DEN 5 yard TD pass Keenum to Butt (D 10-7).
MIN 6 yard TD pass Cousins to Rudolph (M 14-10).
* both teams starters are on the bench now *
DEN 3 yard TD pass Lynch to Heuerman (D 17-14).
MIN punt.
DEN 36 yard FG is good (20-14).
3rd Quarter
MIN punt.
DEN 3 yard TD run R. Freeman. (27-14).
MIN punt.
DEN 1 yard TD run P. Lindsay (34-14).
MIN punt.
DEN 29 yard FG is good (37-14).
MIN punt.
4th Quarter
DEN punt.
MIN punt.
DEN 26 yard FG is good (40-14).
MIN turnover on downs.
DEN 7 yard TD pass Kelly to Bell (47-14).
MIN 1 yard TD pass Sloter to Wieneke (47-21).
DEN punt.
Alright... so that didn't go very well. However, the Vikings' starters looked good, so that's all that's important to me. It was totally worth it to have Cousins go deep to Diggs and work on the first attempt! The backups were atrocious, including Siemian and the 2nd team offense. Though Keenum did play a very good game, but he had zero run support. l did what I could to try and jump start the Vikings' offense, but Siemian couldn't complete any passes... against the Broncos backup defense! Yikes!
The Vikings 2nd and 3rd team defenses could not stop the Broncos offense lead by Paxton Lynch and Chad Kelly. They also had several poorly timed penalties that extended Denver drives - the penalties felt realistic and incredibly annoying! Despite all the passing plays, the Vikings couldn't even register a single sack.
A few more notes - offensive lines aren't rated at the moment, and I think that's something I'll have to work on adding to the game. It wouldn't be difficult to add Sack % chances for pass blocking, but I'm not quite sure how they'll affect the running game yet. So the Vikings' possibly bad O-line was not a factor here (and the game was played before Easton's injury).
Anyways, I think that's going to be all from me for now. There is a ton I haven't explained, so go ahead and ask questions and I'll do my best to answer them. I'm planning on having a Vikings VS 49ers simulation as the first regular season attempt. Here's hoping the Vikings don't lose 47-21 tonight!
But first, what is Strat-o-Matic Football?
Here's a picture of my set-up. You'll notice that in addition to the standard board game, I have a bevy of add-ons that I've made myself over the years.
The original way to play the game can be seen here:
Oh yeah, we've got the 2008 Vikings here! As you can see, the normal way to play the game is to have a deck of cards for each team and every player has their own results dependent on dice rolls. However, the 2018 rosters won't be available for at least another year and they're quite expensive. So what did I do? Yup, I created my own system so that I can plug in any team with any players without creating their own cards or buying anything. You sure learn how to be creative when you're a cheapskate!
Now, before we go any further, let's see how the gameplay works. See below:
On a typical play, you will first have the offense call a play. Your choices are linebuck, off-tackle, end run (running plays) or flat pass, short pass, or long pass (passes). You will then select a player of whom will be running the ball or catching the football. In this situation, I've selected "Short Pass" and "Split End", so Kirk Cousins will be throwing a pass to Stefon Diggs here. Next, the defense (usually a second player) chooses to expect either the run or the pass. I also play the defense, and I randomly select one of the two, but I do have the defense defend the pass in obvious passing situations and vice versa.
You'll see I've rolled the dice and ended up with a 5-11. The white die determines whether we use the QB card or the Defense Card (1-3 QB, 4-6 Def). Since I rolled a 5, we'll refer to the Defense Passing Chart that I'm pointing to. We then choose the skill of the defense - either "Very Poor, Poor, Average to Poor, Average to Good, Good, or Great" - and find the number that the two red die add up to. Since it's an 11, Diggs has caught a 12 yard pass. They'll now have a first down at the 37 yard line (see on the right).
As you can guess, there's a ton of strategy here - linebucks are runs up the middle that don't give you a ton of yards but usually don't fail, throwing deep leads to more sacks and interceptions but can result in huge plays - and on.
I'm sure you still have many questions, so I'll try to answer them. Wondering how the players' talent level works?
I've got most of the Vikings QBs, HBs, FBs, WRs, TEs, and special teams here. For QBs, I had to determine short, medium, and deep accuracy, awareness (throwing interceptions), and scrambling ability. HBs have their own strengths for the three type of running plays and receiving ability, WRs and TEs' ratings are Catching-Speed based, and so on. To calculate these ratings, I looked at stats, PFF ratings, Madden ratings, and other sources. It's rather subjective, but that's what makes it my simulation. The opponent's defense is also placed here and ranked: the Broncos have one of the best run defenses in the league, but their pass defense stinks (based on 2017 stats).
Here's the receiving and passing charts. Each one is basically a generic player card that changes depending on the player's talent. The changes are color-coded so that receivers with high Catch ratings catch more passes, faster receivers get more yards, accurate QBs complete more passes, and risky QBs throw more interceptions, and so on. I put a lot of work into these charts, trying to make sure the numbers would balance with yards per play... there's a lot of complexity here.
Alright, here's one more chart for you: we've got some varied yardage plays above with interception return scenarios, a whole bunch of penalties, and special teams. If you were wondering what the black die was for, one side has an X that causes a penalty in conjunction with a white 1-3 (there's a 1/12 chance of getting a penalty). After that, there will be a 50-50 chance of either team receiving the penalty, and the specific one will be rolled for. I looked up penalty stats to figure out which ones happen most frequently. The kick and punt return results are also based on statistics and better returners will get more yards and more TDs.
Alright, let's finally get onto the game! Since this is a preseason game, I'll be playing the starters for a few drives and pulling them for the backups. As I said earlier, I'm aiming for accuracy here... not for the Vikings to win by 100 points or something ridiculous like that.
Vikings at Broncos Preseason Week 1 - Box Score
(other stats - penalties: MIN 12, DEN 4. Two fumbles (HB Freeman and CB Hughes) were both recovered by the team that lost it, so no turnovers. One sack by DEN (OLB Bradley Chubb))
- Game Summary -
1st Quarter
DEN 38 yard FG is good (3-0).
MIN 48 yard TD pass Cousins to Diggs (7-3).
DEN punt.
MIN punt.
2nd Quarter
DEN 5 yard TD pass Keenum to Butt (D 10-7).
MIN 6 yard TD pass Cousins to Rudolph (M 14-10).
* both teams starters are on the bench now *
DEN 3 yard TD pass Lynch to Heuerman (D 17-14).
MIN punt.
DEN 36 yard FG is good (20-14).
3rd Quarter
MIN punt.
DEN 3 yard TD run R. Freeman. (27-14).
MIN punt.
DEN 1 yard TD run P. Lindsay (34-14).
MIN punt.
DEN 29 yard FG is good (37-14).
MIN punt.
4th Quarter
DEN punt.
MIN punt.
DEN 26 yard FG is good (40-14).
MIN turnover on downs.
DEN 7 yard TD pass Kelly to Bell (47-14).
MIN 1 yard TD pass Sloter to Wieneke (47-21).
DEN punt.
Alright... so that didn't go very well. However, the Vikings' starters looked good, so that's all that's important to me. It was totally worth it to have Cousins go deep to Diggs and work on the first attempt! The backups were atrocious, including Siemian and the 2nd team offense. Though Keenum did play a very good game, but he had zero run support. l did what I could to try and jump start the Vikings' offense, but Siemian couldn't complete any passes... against the Broncos backup defense! Yikes!
The Vikings 2nd and 3rd team defenses could not stop the Broncos offense lead by Paxton Lynch and Chad Kelly. They also had several poorly timed penalties that extended Denver drives - the penalties felt realistic and incredibly annoying! Despite all the passing plays, the Vikings couldn't even register a single sack.
A few more notes - offensive lines aren't rated at the moment, and I think that's something I'll have to work on adding to the game. It wouldn't be difficult to add Sack % chances for pass blocking, but I'm not quite sure how they'll affect the running game yet. So the Vikings' possibly bad O-line was not a factor here (and the game was played before Easton's injury).
Anyways, I think that's going to be all from me for now. There is a ton I haven't explained, so go ahead and ask questions and I'll do my best to answer them. I'm planning on having a Vikings VS 49ers simulation as the first regular season attempt. Here's hoping the Vikings don't lose 47-21 tonight!
... and neither is this Chris guy.