The Real Reason Coaches Do Not Start Rookie QBs

vikingpwr
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The Real Reason Coaches Do Not Start Rookie QBs Jun 12, 2024 13:27:37 GMT -6

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Post by vikingpwr on Jun 12, 2024 13:27:37 GMT -6

Jun 12, 2024 9:53:01 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Jun 12, 2024 8:26:47 GMT -6 diehardtwinsfan said:

You could argue starting broke them. My point is that there's a lot of unknown and nothing solid you can conclude from this. Heck, the lowest draft position of the successes who started right away was Herbert at 6. Of the guys that have sat, Rodgers and Love were drafted late. Mahomes was 10th (and it was well documented he needed work). Only Vick was a high pick (first overall if I remember right). QBs keep getting picked higher and higher too. I don't think these 6 get drafted in the top 12 five years ago. That's a reality given the importance of the position. Teams are taking these guys earlier hoping to strike gold. They are also paying an exorbitant fee to do so. But that also means guys who would have gone late first or even in the second are getting drafted in the top 10-15. That's a BIG difference for even the last 5 years.

To be clear, if JJM is ready at some point this year, I have no problems giving him snaps. I want that to happen though when he's ready and can be in the position possible to succeed, but not because Sam Darnold got off to a bad start, the fans are screaming, and suddenly he's "ready" as it what happens way more often than not. Give me a higher draft pick in that scenario to give us better talent, or if the wheels fall off the bus, something that can be traded for a boatload of picks by QB needy teams.

In order for the "starting QBs too early ruins them" theory to be true, you also need the following to be true:

1. The vast majority of coaches are wrong since the vast majority have been willing to start rookie QBs.
2. Starting too early is so detrimental to the success of a QB that no amount of "sitting and learning" can fix them.
3. Despite the fact that QBs who sit out the majority of their rookie season fail faster at nearly 3x the rate of QBs who play a good chunk of games as rookies, "sitting and learning" is the better strategy.
4. Unlike every other position in football where we see it as a positive sign that a rookie plays a lot, QBs are different

I just don't see how those 4 things can be true and have yet to see any facts, just opinions, that backup this sit and learn theory.

I also want to point out that you can expand the criteria to all QBs drafted and it becomes even more lopsided in favor of rookie QBs starting a significant number of games.

Did Dom Capers and the Texans ruin David Carr's career by starting him too soon in 2002? Capers was in the same situation with the expansion Panthers 7 years earlier and Kerry Collins career turned out pretty good. Doesn't it have more to do with what team you're drafted by at the time than if you start right away and be so-called "ruined"? The coaching staff, free agency, and the draft have a lot to do with it also. As diehardtwinsfan pointed out..."there's a lot of unknown and nothing solid you can conclude from this".

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The Real Reason Coaches Do Not Start Rookie QBs Jun 12, 2024 14:01:24 GMT -6 via mobile Danchat and ratsalad like this

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Post by whoskmoon on Jun 12, 2024 14:01:24 GMT -6

Jun 12, 2024 13:27:37 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Jun 12, 2024 9:53:01 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

In order for the "starting QBs too early ruins them" theory to be true, you also need the following to be true:

1. The vast majority of coaches are wrong since the vast majority have been willing to start rookie QBs.
2. Starting too early is so detrimental to the success of a QB that no amount of "sitting and learning" can fix them.
3. Despite the fact that QBs who sit out the majority of their rookie season fail faster at nearly 3x the rate of QBs who play a good chunk of games as rookies, "sitting and learning" is the better strategy.
4. Unlike every other position in football where we see it as a positive sign that a rookie plays a lot, QBs are different

I just don't see how those 4 things can be true and have yet to see any facts, just opinions, that backup this sit and learn theory.

I also want to point out that you can expand the criteria to all QBs drafted and it becomes even more lopsided in favor of rookie QBs starting a significant number of games.

Did Dom Capers and the Texans ruin David Carr's career by starting him too soon in 2002? Capers was in the same situation with the expansion Panthers 7 years earlier and Kerry Collins career turned out pretty good. Doesn't it have more to do with what team you're drafted by at the time than if you start right away and be so-called "ruined"? The coaching staff, free agency, and the draft have a lot to do with it also. As diehardtwinsfan pointed out..."there's a lot of unknown and nothing solid you can conclude from this".

Isn't the argument with Carr that he failed because his Oline got him killed for 4 straight seasons, not that he started too soon? Or was Houston supposed to wait until year 5 when their oline began to improve before they let him see the field?

"There is a lot of unknowns" is kind of BS. If you are going to push the very novel idea that a QB can be ruined by playing football(and in the modern NFL this idea is indeed novel), you should be able to give some evidence that QBs who sit longer have better careers.

vikingpwr
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The Real Reason Coaches Do Not Start Rookie QBs Jun 12, 2024 14:16:46 GMT -6

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Post by vikingpwr on Jun 12, 2024 14:16:46 GMT -6

Jun 12, 2024 14:01:24 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Jun 12, 2024 13:27:37 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Did Dom Capers and the Texans ruin David Carr's career by starting him too soon in 2002? Capers was in the same situation with the expansion Panthers 7 years earlier and Kerry Collins career turned out pretty good. Doesn't it have more to do with what team you're drafted by at the time than if you start right away and be so-called "ruined"? The coaching staff, free agency, and the draft have a lot to do with it also. As diehardtwinsfan pointed out..."there's a lot of unknown and nothing solid you can conclude from this".

Isn't the argument with Carr that he failed because his Oline got him killed for 4 straight seasons, not that he started too soon? Or was Houston supposed to wait until year 5 when their oline began to improve before they let him see the field?

"There is a lot of unknowns" is kind of BS. If you are going to push the very novel idea that a QB can be ruined by playing football(and in the modern NFL this idea is indeed novel), you should be able to give some evidence that QBs who sit longer have better careers.

I gave an example of two high drafted rookie QBs starting their 1st year for expansion teams. I went with the extreme example to see why one QB did well and the other didn't. You can argue that Houston's OL was one of those "unknowns." In hindsight perhaps Houston should've started Tony Banks and allowed David Carr to sit and learn.

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The Real Reason Coaches Do Not Start Rookie QBs Jun 13, 2024 9:18:09 GMT -6 comet52 and vikingpwr like this

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Post by diehardtwinsfan on Jun 13, 2024 9:18:09 GMT -6

Jun 12, 2024 9:53:01 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

1. The vast majority of coaches are wrong since the vast majority have been willing to start rookie QBs.

Because "that's how we've always done things" isn't a thing in the NFL or anywhere else? It couldn't be that there's not a ton of media pressure because they love a QB controversy? It couldn't be the fans (and owner) want to see the exciting new toy?

Jun 12, 2024 9:53:01 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

2. Starting too early is so detrimental to the success of a QB that no amount of "sitting and learning" can fix them.

Nice straw man. Every QB is different. It's about starting them when ready. Some have done quite well sitting and learning. Others have not. Some have done fine starting on day 1, others have not. The question should be what's best for JJM and how do we put him in the best possible place to succeed?

Jun 12, 2024 9:53:01 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Despite the fact that QBs who sit out the majority of their rookie season fail faster at nearly 3x the rate of QBs who play a good chunk of games as rookies, "sitting and learning" is the better strategy.

I'm really not sure where you're pulling that number from, not to mention sample sizes if you're basing this on the numbers above. QBs are drafted higher because of their position than they would be otherwise. We've discussed this. QB bust rate is pretty high consistently for what is probably the hardest position to learn in football, and there's a component to all of this called development that fits squarely on the shoulders of the coaching staffs.

Jun 12, 2024 9:53:01 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

4. Unlike every other position in football where we see it as a positive sign that a rookie plays a lot, QBs are different

Again, another straw man. No one is saying this. JJM came advertised as needing a year to sit. Normally that's a 2nd rounder FWIW, but not at QB. Do what's best for JJM. Yes, it's a positive sign if he plays a lot because he's earned it and has shown he's ready.

Jun 12, 2024 9:53:01 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

I also want to point out that you can expand the criteria to all QBs drafted and it becomes even more lopsided in favor of rookie QBs starting a significant number of games.

This is true of every position because you've added lower drafted players. It does not strengthen your case at all.

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The Real Reason Coaches Do Not Start Rookie QBs Jun 13, 2024 18:28:55 GMT -6 VikingsVictorious and ratsalad like this

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Post by whoskmoon on Jun 13, 2024 18:28:55 GMT -6

Jun 13, 2024 9:18:09 GMT -6 diehardtwinsfan said:

Nice straw man. Every QB is different. It's about starting them when ready. Some have done quite well sitting and learning. Others have not. Some have done fine starting on day 1, others have not. The question should be what's best for JJM and how do we put him in the best possible place to succeed?

Jun 13, 2024 9:18:09 GMT -6 diehardtwinsfan said:

Again, another straw man. No one is saying this. JJM came advertised as needing a year to sit. Normally that's a 2nd rounder FWIW, but not at QB. Do what's best for JJM. Yes, it's a positive sign if he plays a lot because he's earned it and has shown he's ready.

A strawman is arguing a point no one made, and that is not what I did. Those 4 things need to be true for the best way to develop a QB to be that they "sit and learn".

Jun 13, 2024 9:18:09 GMT -6 diehardtwinsfan said:

Because "that's how we've always done things" isn't a thing in the NFL or anywhere else? It couldn't be that there's not a ton of media pressure because they love a QB controversy? It couldn't be the fans (and owner) want to see the exciting new toy?

They risk ruining their top 10 pick in order to lose more games, which you believe appeases fans and ownership? Nah, not buying it. They play rookie QBs because playing football is the best way to get better at it. You know, because the best way to get better at anything is actually doing it and not actually watching people do it.

Jun 13, 2024 9:18:09 GMT -6 diehardtwinsfan said:

This is true of every position because you've added lower drafted players. It does not strengthen your case at all.

Significantly more QBs bust if they only start 5 or fewer games their rookie seasons if you just look at 1st round QBs or 1st and 2nd round QBs.

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The Real Reason Coaches Do Not Start Rookie QBs Jun 21, 2024 7:16:15 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by ratsalad on Jun 21, 2024 7:16:15 GMT -6

Jun 12, 2024 13:27:37 GMT -6 vikingpwr said:

Jun 12, 2024 9:53:01 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

In order for the "starting QBs too early ruins them" theory to be true, you also need the following to be true:

1. The vast majority of coaches are wrong since the vast majority have been willing to start rookie QBs.
2. Starting too early is so detrimental to the success of a QB that no amount of "sitting and learning" can fix them.
3. Despite the fact that QBs who sit out the majority of their rookie season fail faster at nearly 3x the rate of QBs who play a good chunk of games as rookies, "sitting and learning" is the better strategy.
4. Unlike every other position in football where we see it as a positive sign that a rookie plays a lot, QBs are different

I just don't see how those 4 things can be true and have yet to see any facts, just opinions, that backup this sit and learn theory.

I also want to point out that you can expand the criteria to all QBs drafted and it becomes even more lopsided in favor of rookie QBs starting a significant number of games.

Did Dom Capers and the Texans ruin David Carr's career by starting him too soon in 2002? Capers was in the same situation with the expansion Panthers 7 years earlier and Kerry Collins career turned out pretty good. Doesn't it have more to do with what team you're drafted by at the time than if you start right away and be so-called "ruined"? The coaching staff, free agency, and the draft have a lot to do with it also. As diehardtwinsfan pointed out..."there's a lot of unknown and nothing solid you can conclude from this".

One example is not good enough to prove your point

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The Real Reason Coaches Do Not Start Rookie QBs Jun 21, 2024 7:28:47 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by whoskmoon on Jun 21, 2024 7:28:47 GMT -6

Jun 19, 2024 8:06:24 GMT -6 comet52 said:

www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/history-of-nfl-qbs-waiting-to-start-heres-what-stats-since-2000-say-about-when-theyll-most-likely-succeed/

More evidence that premise of this thread is correct. The most successful QBs are the ones who are good enough to start right away or like in the case of Rodgers, Mahomes and to a lesser extent Love, QBs who were drafted not because a team needed them, but because the team thought they were a great prospect.

Turns out the talent of the QB plays the biggest factor in a QB succeeding. Who knew?

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The Real Reason Coaches Do Not Start Rookie QBs Jun 21, 2024 7:35:13 GMT -6

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Post by diehardtwinsfan on Jun 21, 2024 7:35:13 GMT -6

Jun 21, 2024 7:28:47 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Turns out the talent of the QB plays the biggest factor in a QB succeeding. Who knew?

You have a way of twisting things. Plenty of talented QBs fail, and I think that's the point. Darnold was a talented QB that has failed (at least so far). We can dissect this data any way we want, people are simply going to side whichever way they want, because like it or not, the data is not conclusive to your point or to mine. That's why we have different opinions, and that's okay.

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The Real Reason Coaches Do Not Start Rookie QBs Jun 21, 2024 7:52:33 GMT -6 via mobile

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Post by whoskmoon on Jun 21, 2024 7:52:33 GMT -6

Jun 21, 2024 7:35:13 GMT -6 diehardtwinsfan said:

Jun 21, 2024 7:28:47 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Turns out the talent of the QB plays the biggest factor in a QB succeeding. Who knew?

You have a way of twisting things. Plenty of talented QBs fail, and I think that's the point. Darnold was a talented QB that has failed (at least so far). We can dissect this data any way we want, people are simply going to side whichever way they want, because like it or not, the data is not conclusive to your point or to mine. That's why we have different opinions, and that's okay.

That is fine, but if a theory is presented that goes against what the vast majority of coaching staffs have done, shouldn't there be conclusive evidence to point to that justifies that theory?

It just seems odd that people are openly campaigning for wasting a season starting Sam Darnold based on a theory with no evidence to back it up, right?

Also, doesn't inconclusive evidence around when a QB starts, prove that QBs aren't ruined by starting too early? That it is mainly about talent? Other factors like talent around the QB and coaching obviously play a factor too, but in the end QBs mostly succeed because they have the talent, both physically and mentally, to succeed.