Why a Darnold Resurgence is Unlikely - QB Busts

I am going to disagree with this and I think the data being pointed out sort of backs that up. When a QB fails in one place with a bad situation they almost never turn it around no matter what happens is what is being pointed out. Coaching, situation etc. it doesn't matter. The reality is far and away the biggest aspect on whether or not a QB will have success in his career is his own talent. Changing the situation doesn't do anything for basically any of these QB's being looked at.

As you get at towards the end with the what if, the only way this is all possible is if every single one of these QB's that don't work out in other situations was ruined. I can't imagine that is remotely possible as often times those working with these QB's often eventually work with better ones and don't destroy them. I think it is definitely possible that it happens to some but for the most part what I think can be taken away that danchat highlights too is "It is foolish to think a QB will automatically become a better player just because they are surrounded by better coaches and players."...

It just doesn't work like that because coaching and support aren't the deciding factors on if a QB will end up great. Mahomes and Brady have elite processing abilities that seperate them no matter what team they go to. They might not have all time success like currently on a bad team but they would still have that insane talent unless in a rare/extreme situation. Brady moved on to a new team and won a SB and that amazing coach seems to be having trouble finding a job while the situation/team is in a bad spot. It isn't the team or coaching making the players who they are and changing the scenery when you have a good QB often doesn't change if they are a good QB or not in the same way.

The key will always be if you are getting the right type of talent/individual or not. Bill has never had another Brady but Brady was able to find a new team to win a SB with. Reid never won a SB without Mahomes either. He's a good coach who has had good situations before but the individual talent is what was lacking. Almost any way you look at it you see the same type of thing. Bad QB's going to new opportunities rarely turn it around and good QB's changing team almost always look somewhat similar. The supporting cast can help/hurt to an extent no doubt but not in the way described here at all.

I mean, I see your point that Baker is the better QB, and Tannehill probably is a bad comp, but your list includes a guy who died. Is that really a more comparable situation to Darnold? If we listed Johnny Manziel and Josh Rosen's first three seasons' stats, would Ryan Tannehill still look like a bad comparison to Darnold? Now that I'm thinking about it, if we remove all the guys from the list whose situations are really nothing like Darnold's, he probably has better odds of success than i thought before I saw the list lol.

I hope you're wrong about KOC being serious about going with Darnold. I'm fine with him as a bridge to a QBOTF... go with him till it's obvious he can't go anymore with a hungry rookie waiting. The goal obviously would be to make it to the end of the season, but that's why the plan is to draft someone. I'll be pretty disappointed Thursday night when the last card is called and there is no new QB on our roster. 

Haskins being on the list is more to point out that his next stop was as a 3rd string QB. A side-part of this article was to see how many of these busts became backups versus 3rd stringers / PS / couldn't even do that. It's not intended to be evidence towards his inability to rebound since he never got the time to do that.


I suppose you could tier it like this:

Disappointing Tier: Tannehill, Mayfield

Standard Bust Tier: Darnold, Trubisky, Mariota, Winston

Super Mega Bust Tier: Rosen, Manziel, Lynch

Amen. 

Agreed that definitely plays a part and the other aspect is the NCAA is not quite the same game with the same requirements for the position. You don't fully get to see a players ability to get through their reads in the way they may have to in the NFL for example. College systems can be designed to limit the amount of processing even needed from their QB's. That makes the most important aspect of playing QB harder to judge on top of all of the other factors that need to be considered (help, opponent strength, fundamentals, footwork, arm talent etc. etc.). 

So between the NFL valuing the position so highly and it being so tough to get the full story/picture on these players based on HS/College you end up with "checking a lot of boxes" being a criteria many look at and consider enough if they feel desperate. This is nice to simplify how many "checks" a player has in terms of many things like size, mobility, arm strength, accuracy, footwork etc. and if someone checks enough of the boxes it starts looking really appealing. If you can't process before and after the snap though it will negate a lot of those check marks because you won't even get the opportunity to show them off in the NFL. That can be one of the tougher aspects to judge imo too. 

KOC has also hinted even more specifically at there being areas that are more coachable/fixable than others as well. Below the waiste aka footwork is fixable and can actually help aspects like accuracy/ball placement. Then there are things that no matter how long you spend with a player you might not be able to fix (bad arm, inability to process). This is where we are hopefully in the right spot to determine if giving up a lot for 3 is worth it imo. We have a coach that understands this, who's career has been working with QB's (along with playing the position in the NFL), who seems to have been the QB killer by saying no to the options available to us so far because they didn't meet specific criteria. If all of this is true I would have to think we are not making a jump up in desperation to reach for someone else that doesn't meet his specific criteria. 

When it comes to why Sam Darnold may have "busted" early on in his NFL career, I'm wondering if it may have had to do with how "little" experience he had as a starting QB before being drafted #3 overall in 2018.

Darnold's QB "Inexperience" Prior to NFL
Darnold played baseball his Freshman year in high school and then played football & basketball starting in his Sophomore year, where he initially played WR & LB. He only started at QB after the starting QB was injured, and Darnold whne he was thrown into that game, he threw a TD pass and the game-winning 2-pt conversion, but promptly returned to playing WR/LB the next week. It wasn't until later on in his SO season he became the school's "permanent" starting QB. In his JR yr, he broke his foot in the 3rd game of the season and was sidelined the final 8 games, and his SR season was the only one where he played a full season as the starting QB. The reason he was recruited so heavily by USC and other "blue blood" schools was because his HS coach actually showed footage of Darnold playing basketball (to show off more of his athleticism as a multi-sport athlete) and that somehow convinced schools to get him into a football camp where he impressed USC coaches (including Steve Sarkesian, current HC of the Texas Longhorns).

At USC, Darnold redshirted his FR season in 2015 and didn't win the starting job in his SO season (2016) until the starting QB that season, Max Browne, was benched. Darnold went onto start the final 10 games of the 2016 season and all 14 games in 2017, compiling just 24 starts in college. If you total his High School starts, which was 18 (he was 15-3 as a starter then), he had just 42 total games of being a starting QB under his belt before he went to the NFL, which may sound like a whole lot, but if you consider that Michael Penix, Jr (45), Jayden Daniels (55) and Bo Nix have more QB starts in just their college careers than Darnold did in his entire football career at the same point, it's not much at all - especially when you consider he didn't play QB right away in High School.

JJ McCarthy only has two years of QB starts in college, too (28 total starts at Michigan), but the difference was his high school career where he had 38 total starts (and went 36-2) over his career at Nazareth Academy (in the Chicago suburbs) and IMG Academy in 2020 during COVID (one of the top college prep football programs in the nation). McCarthy has had 66 total QB starts prior to entering the NFL - 24 more than Darnold, which is approx two full seasons worth of development.

"Touching" the McVay/Shanahan Coaching Tree 
Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan (and "disciples" of their respective coaching trees) are often described as being the closest thing to "QB Whisperers" as there are in the NFL. McVay came to prominence during the "Kirk years" in Washington (2015-2016) after RGIII's injury and Shanahan was well-known to getting the most out of Matt Ryan in Atlanta and both have had similar effects on QB's on their teams during their HC careers. In LA, McVay got all he could out of Goff as the 2 highest passer ratings Goff has had in his career - including the 2023 season - were with McVay in 2017/2018, that included Goff leading LAR to a Super Bowl appearance. And when McVay thought he got as much as he could out of Goff, he traded for a proven veteran in Stafford and was able to coax some of the best football of his career on route to a Super Bowl victory, as well as extend his career by making another Pro Bowl appearance in 2023. When Baker Mayfield was waived by Carolina in early Dec 2022, McVay and the LAR picked him up off waivers and he basically was able to turn around Mayfield's game into respectability during the last 5 games of the 2022 season which led Tampa to signing him into the 2023 offseason. 

As far as Shanahan goes, he certainly didn't do any wonders for Trey Lance (and speaking of "inexperience", Lance only started half as many games in his DII college career as Darnold did at USC) and he couldn't "fix" Josh Rosen (who spent 2020 in SF), but you could make the argument that Jimmy Garropolo had the most success under Shanahan than he did with New England (backing up Brady) or his time in Vegas, and 7th Rd draft pick Brock Purdy also has had a great deal of early success under Shanahan. Some people could might be able to make the argument that even Nick Mullens - who went undrafted in 2017 - got a solid "head start" to his NFL career when he was suddenly thrust into action under Shanahan in 2018/2020 and is the level of QB he is today (backup-level) because of Shanahan - the percentage of Day 3/UDFA QB prospects who get to QB2 status is very low so even though some Viking fans might consider Mullens a "bust", if you consider he's an UDFA who can throw for 400+ yds (even with multiple INT's), I wouldn't consider that a bust. 

Darnold spent 2023 in the SF and started 1 game while officially "playing" in 10, going 28-46, 60.9% COMP, for 297 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT and a Passer Rating of 85.1, which was the highest passer rating of his career as he never got above 78.6 with NYJ or CAR. With O'Connell also a disciple of that same McVay/Shanahan offensive coaching "tree", perhaps that one year in a Shanahan-stle QB room may have really helped Darnold's game. 

Kwesi & O'Connnell "Reviewing the Tape" in Carolina
Remember when former Vikings Head Coach Leslie Frazier would answer post-game pressers with his infamous, "I'll have to review the tape" quote? Well, when Kwesi & O'Connell were forming alternative "bridge QB" plans for the 2024 season (after they realized Kirk was probably going to get more guaranteed years in Atlanta), they "pulled a Leslie" and started reviewing the tape from Darnold's 2022 season in Carolina and started liking what they saw in a 6-game stretech that saw him go 4-2. 

When Albert Breer published the "inside story" of Atlanta's signing of Kirk Cousins on 3/18/24, he also detailed out the plans Kwesi & O'Connell did to prepare for Kirk's eventual departure. From that article (link):
So Kevin "QB Killer" O'Connell and Kwesi became intrigued with Darnold as 2024 bridge QB Plan C and saw some of the same things that intrigued Steve Sarkesian when USC recruited him from his limited time in high school...

...and Minnesota wasn't the only one who was "intrigued" with Darnold this offseason. The Broncos also had an offer on the table at the same time for Darnold, and the Viking's had to probably do a slight "overpay" to secure Darnold from Sean Payton and Denver, hence the 1-yr, $10m contract. But even if they did do a slight overpay, there seemed to be enough there to intrigue both Kevin & Kwesi to believe Darnold  could be a "competitive" bridge in 2024 while he hands the baton off to the rookie they are about to draft in a few days. 

Another Resurgence?
I think if you combine all three elements - his inexperience that he's now gotten over, with signs of progress late in his time in Carolina during that 4-2 stretch to time in a Shanahan QB room in 2023 - it's possible that Darnold, now in another McVay/Shanahan-style QB room (and one of the best QB "situations" that a free agent or rookie QB could walk into, per many Draft "experts" out there), could have a bit of a career "resurgence" similar to Geno Smith...