Moving On From An Above Average QB - Redux
Back in February 2022 I wrote an article called "Moving on From an Above Average QB", with the advent of Kirk potentially leaving. It took another two years, but we have reached that point and I want to summarize the findings of that article and expand upon it somewhat. In a single screenshot, here is a summary of most of the Above Average QBs who were moved off of. I have added recent examples.
The case for my conclusion in the previous article is strengthened even further with recent examples... and this isn't even including QBs who exceed the ranking of "above average" like DeShaun Watson -> CJ Stroud and Aaron Rodgers -> Jordan Love. Though let me know if I missed any.
Let's go over the conclusions again with the updated information:
1) Where are all of the 1st round busts?
Conventional wisdom tells us that drafting a QB is at best a 50-50 gamble, and really a 30-70 or even 20-80 chance of getting a good one. But then how are there only 3 busts (Rosen, Haskins, Lance) on this list? As I explained in the previous article:
The majority of these QBs landed in average to great situations. Watson and Tagovailoa did land in rough environments that eventually improved - Watson looked great from the start and Tua really needed the help - and Haskins/Rosen both landed in bad places and flopped. Trey Lance is the only exception on this list to land in the best place any developmental QB could dream in San Fran... but still bombed out.
The reality is that a QB drafted into a quality environment will thrive more often, or better put their abilities will be maximized more often. And when a team previously had an above average QB thriving to some extent, that is likely a result of said environment. Personnel-wise the Vikings have an enviable amount of talent on the offense, only having a true weakness at iOL. While it is up for debate how well O'Connell coaches the offense, he did squeeze out some of Mr. Above Average Himself Kirk Cousins' best play and hopefully will be able to do the same for whomever the rookie QB is.
2) Don't bother with "band-aid" QBs
One thing that is apparent from this list is that slapping bandages on a gaping wound will not keep the blood back for long. Sticking in Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer, and all of the Colts QBs listed. For a one year stint / bridge while developing a 1st round QB prospect is justifiable, but it makes little sense what the Texans and Colts did. The Texans spent two years developing 4th rounder Tom Savage behind their mediocre QBs... when 4th rounders don't even become backups at a 50% clip. Then that vacuum made them desperate for Brock Osweiler, which was such a massive mistake they paid the Browns a 2nd round pick to take his contract off their hands.
Meanwhile, the Colts kicked the can down the road 3 years after Luck's surprise retirement but slapping on band-aids like Rivers, Wentz, and Ryan. At least they went to the playoffs with Rivers, but the Wentz and Ryan trades were doomed from the start. Pro-tip: getting the last 'toothpaste squeeze' out of a QB before they expire isn't worth it, unless they are Tom Brady.
3) A Year 2 window seems realistic
Many of the successful replacements of above average QBs took a step forward in Year 2 - Mahomes and Burrow are good examples, whereas Allen and Tagovailoa took until year 3. Watson, Prescott, Dalton, and Murray were all just as good from the get-go. Multi-year vets like Kaepernick and Geno Smith were ready to go out of the gate. While this class has a couple young pups in McCarthy and Maye that might take an extra year or two to bloom, it is not a reach to say that we should have a Cousins replacement who is playing near his level by Year 2.
4) Draft a consensus 1st round QB
Perhaps this advice seems a bit "captain obvious" to you, but the 1st round picks on this list were all consensus 1st round picks by the draftnik community, albeit some ranged lower in the first round. For my draft boards, the only one on this list to be totally outside the first round is Josh Allen (also Jordan Love). There isn't any precedent for reaching on a QB in the 1st round and having that go well for you... so for this year's draft, it means not spending a 1st on Penix or Nix. Penix could creep up into becoming a consensus 1st like McCarthy has, but we'll see if that happens.
That's enough for today. Next time, I'll cover Sam Darnold and the chances of him drastically improving with the Vikings and the history of 1st round QB busts. Let me know what you think!
The case for my conclusion in the previous article is strengthened even further with recent examples... and this isn't even including QBs who exceed the ranking of "above average" like DeShaun Watson -> CJ Stroud and Aaron Rodgers -> Jordan Love. Though let me know if I missed any.
Let's go over the conclusions again with the updated information:
1) Where are all of the 1st round busts?
Conventional wisdom tells us that drafting a QB is at best a 50-50 gamble, and really a 30-70 or even 20-80 chance of getting a good one. But then how are there only 3 busts (Rosen, Haskins, Lance) on this list? As I explained in the previous article:
As it turns out, having strong infrastructure (GM/HC/OL/position players/defense) usually prevents teams from turning into the next Browns/Jags/Lions franchise.
The reality is that a QB drafted into a quality environment will thrive more often, or better put their abilities will be maximized more often. And when a team previously had an above average QB thriving to some extent, that is likely a result of said environment. Personnel-wise the Vikings have an enviable amount of talent on the offense, only having a true weakness at iOL. While it is up for debate how well O'Connell coaches the offense, he did squeeze out some of Mr. Above Average Himself Kirk Cousins' best play and hopefully will be able to do the same for whomever the rookie QB is.
2) Don't bother with "band-aid" QBs
One thing that is apparent from this list is that slapping bandages on a gaping wound will not keep the blood back for long. Sticking in Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Hoyer, and all of the Colts QBs listed. For a one year stint / bridge while developing a 1st round QB prospect is justifiable, but it makes little sense what the Texans and Colts did. The Texans spent two years developing 4th rounder Tom Savage behind their mediocre QBs... when 4th rounders don't even become backups at a 50% clip. Then that vacuum made them desperate for Brock Osweiler, which was such a massive mistake they paid the Browns a 2nd round pick to take his contract off their hands.
Meanwhile, the Colts kicked the can down the road 3 years after Luck's surprise retirement but slapping on band-aids like Rivers, Wentz, and Ryan. At least they went to the playoffs with Rivers, but the Wentz and Ryan trades were doomed from the start. Pro-tip: getting the last 'toothpaste squeeze' out of a QB before they expire isn't worth it, unless they are Tom Brady.
3) A Year 2 window seems realistic
Many of the successful replacements of above average QBs took a step forward in Year 2 - Mahomes and Burrow are good examples, whereas Allen and Tagovailoa took until year 3. Watson, Prescott, Dalton, and Murray were all just as good from the get-go. Multi-year vets like Kaepernick and Geno Smith were ready to go out of the gate. While this class has a couple young pups in McCarthy and Maye that might take an extra year or two to bloom, it is not a reach to say that we should have a Cousins replacement who is playing near his level by Year 2.
4) Draft a consensus 1st round QB
Perhaps this advice seems a bit "captain obvious" to you, but the 1st round picks on this list were all consensus 1st round picks by the draftnik community, albeit some ranged lower in the first round. For my draft boards, the only one on this list to be totally outside the first round is Josh Allen (also Jordan Love). There isn't any precedent for reaching on a QB in the 1st round and having that go well for you... so for this year's draft, it means not spending a 1st on Penix or Nix. Penix could creep up into becoming a consensus 1st like McCarthy has, but we'll see if that happens.
That's enough for today. Next time, I'll cover Sam Darnold and the chances of him drastically improving with the Vikings and the history of 1st round QB busts. Let me know what you think!
