Why a Darnold Resurgence is Unlikely - QB Busts
Apr 22, 2024 22:35:40 GMT -6
Reignman, Funkytown, and 11 more like this
Post by Danchat on Apr 22, 2024 22:35:40 GMT -6
In what is essentially part two of my analysis of the fallout of the fateful 2024 Free Agency period, I will do some moderate analysis on QB busts and what the track record for QBs like Sam Darnold to rebound.
Going back to 2010, I've compiled a list of 1st and 2nd round QBs who are considered to be "busts" like Darnold - those who outright failed or did not have a long enough track record of success qualify. The likes of Ryan Tannehill and Baker Mayfield who were disappointing but had stretches of competency do not count. Here we are:
Not only do we not have a single successful stint for any of the 1st round busts, most of them failed to be proper backups. Only Gabbert, Winston, Mariota, Darnold, and Trubisky have been able to hold down a #2 role for multiple years. The 2nd rounders were just as bad, but have one true home run in Geno Smith.
When comparing to Darnold's situation (not necessarily the player himself), two examples stand out among the rest to me: Mitchell Trubisky and DeShone Kizer.
* Trubisky spent one year in Buffalo backing up Josh Allen before taking a 2/$14M deal to be the Steelers' bridge QB. Similar to Sam Darnold as of now, Trubisky's salary jumped up by 180% after spending a year with Bills OC Brian Daboll. While the situation in Pittsburgh was questionable, he did have some weapons (Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth) and played poorly enough to get benched 5 games in. He was a similar passer in his age 28-29 seasons in Pitt compared to his age 23-26 years in Chicago - and he was a considerably worse runner checking in with only 92 yards on 35 carries in Pitt vs 1057 yards on 190 (5.6 Y/A!) in Chicago. Trubisky didn't develop and I would argue played worse - also in 2023 he was completely outplayed by 3rd stringer Mason Rudolph. Trubisky is now back in Buffalo on a very cheap (2/$5M) deal, as it is apparent he isn't even a good backup QB.
* Kizer went from rags (2017 Browns who went 0-16) to riches (2018 Packers, while having a downturn in 2017 had 8 straight winning seasons prior). He backed up Rodgers in 2018 and the idea was to have the second rounder ride develop as a backup and perhaps become a trade piece with 3 years under contract. Except Kizer looked horrible when he did get a chance to play in 2018, and evidently did not develop as he failed to make the roster in 2019. He spent that year as the Raiders' 3rd string QB... all to be released in May 2020 (being released when rosters carry 90 players is a really bad sign!). Kizer never made a roster again.
Conclusion: It is foolish to think a QB will automatically become a better player just because they are surrounded by better coaches and players. 1st and 2nd round busts almost always fail with their second, third, and so on teams.
NFL GMs love to think that they can fix highly-drafted players who flopped elsewhere - heck, Kwesi has shown a penchant for that when he traded draft capital for Jalen Reagor (R1) and Ross Blacklock (R2) in his first season as a GM. Davenport was a 1st rounder who was plagued by injuries in New Orleans, and the same thing happened here. Even scrap heap pickups N'Keal Harry (R1) and Joejuan Williams (R2), a duo of Belichick busts, couldn't hold roster spots for very long.
Not to mention the QB position last season - Joshua Dobbs showed some sparks as he improvised in his first couple appearances, but then reverted back to the QB we saw in Arizona. Nick Mullens was the same guy he was in San Fran - can run the offense, but is insanely aggressive and doesn't have enough arm strength to back that up. All the same, Christian Ponder failed in Oakland and couldn't even beat Matt McGloin for a roster spot. EJ Manuel lasted one year in Oakland. Blake Bortles was flushed out of the league immediately after being a Ram for one season.
Perhaps given the best situation possible, Jameis Winston did not improve in Tampa, despite spending valuable time behind Drew Brees. Josh Rosen, despite being "pro ready" showed zero NFL ability and couldn't even hang around as a 3rd stringer after being given two shots. Drew Lock got a second chance in Seattle, given a wide open shot to win the starting QB job... just to be thwarted by Geno Smith.
Geno is the only QB in the current era of the NFL to successfully pull off the turnaround. He went from abject failure with the Jets to running away with a starting job 7 years after being benched. He's got a nice 3/$75M contract now, but even then it is apparent the Seahawks will need to upgrade that position if they are to be a Super Bowl contender and are thinking about spending a high pick on a QB.
Based on this analysis, my prediction for Sam Darnold is his future plays out similarly to Blaine Gabbert's, who has been a darling of some significant head coaches (Jim Harbaugh, Bruce Arians twice, and Andy Reid). Darnold was able to gain favor with Kyle Shanahan and he looks to be suited to become a clipboard holder for years to come. I don't see signs pointing towards a Geno Smith-esque revival, given how Smith wasn't given a chance for 7 years. Darnold immediately got a chance to start the year after the Jets gave up on him in a trade with the Panthers (somehow fetching a 2nd round pick!!) and he also failed there. Where is the track record for a bust to suddenly become a passable starter in his third chance, on his fourth team?
Conclusion: Darnold is likely to top out as a top-notch backup QB. It behooves the Vikings to take a shot at a franchise QB in the 2024 draft. I won't comment on how much draft capital should be thrown at it, but they cannot afford to skip drafting a legitimate first round talent.
***
Random tidbit - I had the idea to look at QB height and see how undersized and oversized QBs fared. Here are my findings:
QBs under 6'1" had a stronger hit rate than I initially thought, though they are a considerable minority. Over the past 12 years, I would call only 6 of these QBs to be a "hit". Compared to all of the QBs who started enough games in that stretch of time, I estimate this list only holds about 15% of the names (I couldn't figure out the right query in Stathead to group QB starts over a 12 year range. If anyone knows how I would love to see those results).
What about tall QB prospects?
QBs over 6'5" are very rare, much more than I thought. Herbert is the only hit, whereas Lynch was a massive flop and Osweiler was also tremdenously terrible after receiving an inexcusable second contract. Meanwhile, Logan Thomas has been an effective start TE for several years and Tyree Jackson also moved to TE. This list comprises 1% of QBs who have started games in the past 12 years.
Conclusion: In the end, this means that roughly 84% of QBs who start games in the NFL are between 6'1" and 6'5". If you are under that, then you either compensate by being athletic marvels (Wilson, Murray), being an elite processor (Tua, Purdy), or run on pure scrappiness (Keenum, Minshew). Tall players usually don't play QB, and the few that do tend to have issues with their throwing motions.
1300 words is more than I intended to go with this article! So it's time for me to shut up and listen to your comments!
Going back to 2010, I've compiled a list of 1st and 2nd round QBs who are considered to be "busts" like Darnold - those who outright failed or did not have a long enough track record of success qualify. The likes of Ryan Tannehill and Baker Mayfield who were disappointing but had stretches of competency do not count. Here we are:
Not only do we not have a single successful stint for any of the 1st round busts, most of them failed to be proper backups. Only Gabbert, Winston, Mariota, Darnold, and Trubisky have been able to hold down a #2 role for multiple years. The 2nd rounders were just as bad, but have one true home run in Geno Smith.
When comparing to Darnold's situation (not necessarily the player himself), two examples stand out among the rest to me: Mitchell Trubisky and DeShone Kizer.
* Trubisky spent one year in Buffalo backing up Josh Allen before taking a 2/$14M deal to be the Steelers' bridge QB. Similar to Sam Darnold as of now, Trubisky's salary jumped up by 180% after spending a year with Bills OC Brian Daboll. While the situation in Pittsburgh was questionable, he did have some weapons (Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth) and played poorly enough to get benched 5 games in. He was a similar passer in his age 28-29 seasons in Pitt compared to his age 23-26 years in Chicago - and he was a considerably worse runner checking in with only 92 yards on 35 carries in Pitt vs 1057 yards on 190 (5.6 Y/A!) in Chicago. Trubisky didn't develop and I would argue played worse - also in 2023 he was completely outplayed by 3rd stringer Mason Rudolph. Trubisky is now back in Buffalo on a very cheap (2/$5M) deal, as it is apparent he isn't even a good backup QB.
* Kizer went from rags (2017 Browns who went 0-16) to riches (2018 Packers, while having a downturn in 2017 had 8 straight winning seasons prior). He backed up Rodgers in 2018 and the idea was to have the second rounder ride develop as a backup and perhaps become a trade piece with 3 years under contract. Except Kizer looked horrible when he did get a chance to play in 2018, and evidently did not develop as he failed to make the roster in 2019. He spent that year as the Raiders' 3rd string QB... all to be released in May 2020 (being released when rosters carry 90 players is a really bad sign!). Kizer never made a roster again.
Conclusion: It is foolish to think a QB will automatically become a better player just because they are surrounded by better coaches and players. 1st and 2nd round busts almost always fail with their second, third, and so on teams.
NFL GMs love to think that they can fix highly-drafted players who flopped elsewhere - heck, Kwesi has shown a penchant for that when he traded draft capital for Jalen Reagor (R1) and Ross Blacklock (R2) in his first season as a GM. Davenport was a 1st rounder who was plagued by injuries in New Orleans, and the same thing happened here. Even scrap heap pickups N'Keal Harry (R1) and Joejuan Williams (R2), a duo of Belichick busts, couldn't hold roster spots for very long.
Not to mention the QB position last season - Joshua Dobbs showed some sparks as he improvised in his first couple appearances, but then reverted back to the QB we saw in Arizona. Nick Mullens was the same guy he was in San Fran - can run the offense, but is insanely aggressive and doesn't have enough arm strength to back that up. All the same, Christian Ponder failed in Oakland and couldn't even beat Matt McGloin for a roster spot. EJ Manuel lasted one year in Oakland. Blake Bortles was flushed out of the league immediately after being a Ram for one season.
Perhaps given the best situation possible, Jameis Winston did not improve in Tampa, despite spending valuable time behind Drew Brees. Josh Rosen, despite being "pro ready" showed zero NFL ability and couldn't even hang around as a 3rd stringer after being given two shots. Drew Lock got a second chance in Seattle, given a wide open shot to win the starting QB job... just to be thwarted by Geno Smith.
Geno is the only QB in the current era of the NFL to successfully pull off the turnaround. He went from abject failure with the Jets to running away with a starting job 7 years after being benched. He's got a nice 3/$75M contract now, but even then it is apparent the Seahawks will need to upgrade that position if they are to be a Super Bowl contender and are thinking about spending a high pick on a QB.
Based on this analysis, my prediction for Sam Darnold is his future plays out similarly to Blaine Gabbert's, who has been a darling of some significant head coaches (Jim Harbaugh, Bruce Arians twice, and Andy Reid). Darnold was able to gain favor with Kyle Shanahan and he looks to be suited to become a clipboard holder for years to come. I don't see signs pointing towards a Geno Smith-esque revival, given how Smith wasn't given a chance for 7 years. Darnold immediately got a chance to start the year after the Jets gave up on him in a trade with the Panthers (somehow fetching a 2nd round pick!!) and he also failed there. Where is the track record for a bust to suddenly become a passable starter in his third chance, on his fourth team?
Conclusion: Darnold is likely to top out as a top-notch backup QB. It behooves the Vikings to take a shot at a franchise QB in the 2024 draft. I won't comment on how much draft capital should be thrown at it, but they cannot afford to skip drafting a legitimate first round talent.
***
Random tidbit - I had the idea to look at QB height and see how undersized and oversized QBs fared. Here are my findings:
QBs under 6'1" had a stronger hit rate than I initially thought, though they are a considerable minority. Over the past 12 years, I would call only 6 of these QBs to be a "hit". Compared to all of the QBs who started enough games in that stretch of time, I estimate this list only holds about 15% of the names (I couldn't figure out the right query in Stathead to group QB starts over a 12 year range. If anyone knows how I would love to see those results).
What about tall QB prospects?
QBs over 6'5" are very rare, much more than I thought. Herbert is the only hit, whereas Lynch was a massive flop and Osweiler was also tremdenously terrible after receiving an inexcusable second contract. Meanwhile, Logan Thomas has been an effective start TE for several years and Tyree Jackson also moved to TE. This list comprises 1% of QBs who have started games in the past 12 years.
Conclusion: In the end, this means that roughly 84% of QBs who start games in the NFL are between 6'1" and 6'5". If you are under that, then you either compensate by being athletic marvels (Wilson, Murray), being an elite processor (Tua, Purdy), or run on pure scrappiness (Keenum, Minshew). Tall players usually don't play QB, and the few that do tend to have issues with their throwing motions.
1300 words is more than I intended to go with this article! So it's time for me to shut up and listen to your comments!
and recognize that it's more than likely that Darnold fails. That's why he's a bridge QB, with presumably a new QB on the sidelines ready to take over if he fails. There are however anomalies that have been mentioned here. Someone mentioned Bridgewater who had some success on other teams. And of course you have tons of guys the NFL missed on like Kurt Warner, Brady, etc. that don't quite fit the premise of the piece but should give all of us reason to think there's a chance. 
... and neither is this Chris guy.