Compensatory Picks

I'd love for Goessling to ask the Vikings straight-up about it during the next presser to clear up any confusion.

Unless Goessling himself reported the #'s for Griffin's contract incorrectly somehow (and it doesn't matter how much is guaranteed vs non-guaranteed because even the bonuses - signing, roster & workout - count in the financial component of the comp pick formula), then I don't see how the Vikings get that additional 3rd Rd comp pick. Perhaps the contract is for 2 yrs vs just the 1 yr, which would lower the AAV enough to possibly get him below the threshold.

There "was" language in the last version of the CBA that allowed teams to release a player prior to Week 10 for them to not count in the comp pick formula (something Arizona was keenly aware of when they released Sam Bradford prior to Week 10 of the 2018 season), but the NFL closed that "loophole" with a change to Appendix V of the latest CBA so the CFA's "stick" on the balance sheet regardless if the player is cut before Week 10 of the regular season.

In terms of Sam Darnold, if the Vikings want to try and possibly recoup that 3rd Rd comp pick for Hunter, they could limit the the snaps played by the qualifying CFA's "gained" this year (Darnold & Griffin are probably the only two that we would seriously consider limiting snaps to) which "might" result in Darnold dropping enough in overall value on the Comp value sheet. Honestly, with how much we signed Darnold for - $10m - I think we'll have a better chance of recouping that 3rd Rd pick with limiting Griffin's snaps, which could result in diminishing that $4.55m value down below the threshold that counts as a qualifying CFA gained. The threshold of snaps-played to count in the Comp Pick formula is 25% - qualifying CFA's have to play in at least 25% of offense/defense snaps (ST snaps don't count) to qualify as a "CFA".

So, the best way to recoup that 3rd Rd comp for Hunter is to ensure Griffin doesn't play 25% of the defensive snaps this season, which could (not guaranteed) drive down his final numercial value far enough where he won't qualify. It's certainly possible if the other outside CB's step up and if the 2024 rookies (Khyree Jackson & Dwight McGlothern) make the roster and get see a good amount of the field.

EDIT: I should revise my statement above to add in that the 25% snap limit is only for adding on to the initial numerical value that is determined by the player's AAV. The AAV amount (total gross salary, including bonuses, divided by # of yrs) is the single largest factor in determining if a player is a qualifying CFA at season's end. After that, additional pts are tacked-on based on the % of snaps played. So regardess if Griffin plays a single snap for Minnesota in 2024, his $4.55m AAV is the base, which if you follow OTC's Comp Pick formula, is at least 1,400 pts and that can only increase based on how much Griffin plays in 2024, but it's not going down and he's going to qualify as a CFA "gained", regardless of how much he plays. 

The only possibility is then to increase the # of CFA's "lost" back to 7 and for players like Oli Udoh and Josh Dobbs to play a massive amt of snaps for their respective teams this season. Udoh is playing for New Orleans and Dobbs for SF, so Udoh is probably the more likely of those two to get more snas. If Udoh plays 75% of the team's offensive snaps, he'll likely get 75 additonal pts on top of his approx 1,100 pts for signing a $2m deal, which puts him at approx 1,200-ish total pts. Honestly, I don't think even that's going to be enough total pts to get up to the lowest possible threshold to qualify, which, per OTC, was at least 1,300 total pts. The Jets received a 7th Rd pick for the Bears signing Dan Feeney to a 1-yr, $3.25m deal in 2023, and even though Feeney only played 90 total snaps for Chicago in 2023, his final comp pick numerical value for 2023 was in the 1,300-pt ballpark based more on that $3.25m deal. 

Looking more closely at the figures and the formula, it really does seem like a head-scratching move to sign Griffin when they did and for how much they did to put that 3rd Rd comp pick at risk, especially when Kwesi was seemingly being very cautious beforehand not to put that add'l 3rd Rd comp pick in jeopardy. 

Wow, I didn't know any of this. So a trip to the IR for anyone, including the guys we lost, could totally screw up the comp formula. Or is the IR excluded?