Compensatory Picks

This is the key part of Ragatz's article that Danchat and I were waiting for:

Korte estimates that he'd have to play at least 70 percent of the Vikings' snaps this season to reach that third-round value. If that ends up happening, he will have cancelled out one of Hunter or Cousins in the formula, meaning the Vikings signing Griffin would've only cost them a sixth or seventh-round comp pick (which has much less value than a third-rounder).

To demonstrate this, I've copied & pasted OTC's projected financial CFA values for 3rd/4th Rd comp picks in 2025 below and it appears they are projecting the minimum CFA value for a 3rd Rd comp pick at 1,897 total pts. At this moment, they are projecting Greenard with 1,827 total pts with only 34% of the snaps played, which adds just 34 pts and the total amt of 1,861 pts falls short of the 1,897 they are projecting is required to reach a 3rd Rd comp pick. Greenard would need an additional 36 pts of snaps-played value to get to that 3rd Rd projection and adding that ontop of his 34% means he would need to play at least 70% of the team's defensive snaps to vault his CFA financial CFA value to a 3rd Rd comp pick. 



I think this is interesting because it does give a bit more insight into the Viking's defensive plans for 2024. I don't think many fans were thinking Greenard to play less than 70% and expected him to be one of the starting EDGE/OLB players for the entire season, but this comp pick projection by Minnesota solidifies that line of thought a bit more. 

Still though, even if Minnesota wasn't expecting an additional 3rd Rd comp due to Greenard playing at least 70% of the defensive snaps in 2024, the timing of Griffin's signing did erase a late Rd comp pick, which of course is far less valuable than a 3rd Rd comp pick, but it's still a Draft pick that we don't have and as we've seen from the praise that many fans have given Kwesi for his late Rd "prowess" (many fans projected D McBride - who was drafted in the 7th Rd in 2023 - to have contributed a bit more in his rookie season, and fans were excited about the late 6th Rd selection of Alabama K Will Reichard last month as well as selecting a possible Udoh replacement in Walter Rouse), those picks do have some value to building out a roster. Sure, 6th and 7th Rd picks have very low chances of every becoming superstar players that teams build around (Tom Brady and Brock Purdy are rare exceptions), but they the 4-yr, low-cost deals do provide a value for depth players rather than relying on whatever is out there on the open market on constant 1-yr deals. 

I think the larger picture of "concern" regarding Kwesi that is somewhat getting lost isn't the notion of losing out on a single 3rd, 6th or 7th Rd comp pick in 2025 in a vacuum...it's the notion that there seems to be a continuing trend of being a bit "loose" and "flippant" about the value of draft capital in general and not trying to glean every bit of an edge or value that you possibly can.

On the field, the NFL is often times a "games of inches", determined by a player gaining a few extra yards in a crucial moment or a defender tipping a pass away that was underthrown by a few inches. Sometimes the off-field decision-making is a "game of inches", as well, and the Front Offices who do everything they possibly can to maximize even the smallest of margins (getting a slight bit more favorable contract value here, or obtaining an extra comp pick there) can make a difference if they have enough of them. Will losing out on a 6th or 7th Rd comp pick by signing Shaq Griffin when they did cost the Vikings a shot at the Super Bowl? Of course not, and that single act in-and-of-itself will not be any deciding or critical factor in determining the on-field success (or lack of it) for the Vikings in 2024 or in the near term, but the continuous acts of failing to maximize the value of the draft capital possibly could be part of the problem...

it could be your idea of value and the Vikings organizations ideas are different

But getting the 112 pick is the end all be all to the offseason of team. How could you possibly say this 🤣😂🤣

Well, the comp pick was basically for free.  And if it was a "third round" that many people suspected it would have been, that would have been a pick before we took Khyree Jackson who people are loving as a selection right now and might end up being a starter at CB!  These comments about quit crying or its just a 3rd/4th rd and such don't make any sense.  Really good quality players are found in that pick range.  If we're trying to build a team that can compete for a SB we need many good quality players any way we can get them and can't be squandering free chances to get them.  


EDIT:  If the lost comp pick is a 6th instead of the 3rd its far less of an issue.  Glad there was some additional explanation, thank you.

That is the ultimate tradeoff. I think the real question is do you wait to get a guy like Shaq until after the draft knowing that you may have 2 3rd round comp picks in play (agreed with others that if it's a 6th, it's much less of an issue). Given we drafted Jackson, the CB room is looking pretty deep, so just how much playing time is Griffin going to get and could his production have been replaced with a post draft signing or a roster cut signing come training camp?

I would argue that we definitely should be playing the comp pick game for the higher picks if we can as a good drafting team should be able to find developable talent in the 3rd and 4th rounds in particular on a consistent basis.

Vikings fans we b*tch if we aren't aggressive enough in the draft and when they are aggressive we b*tch for being too free with draft capital LOL