What We Learned in 23

Preseason question: Will 2022’s good luck carry over?

Answer: A billion percent no

Following the Vikings since Kevin O’Connell took over has been whiplash on fans. In 2022 the Vikings were the Good Luck Darlings of the NFL with a healthy roster and a one-score game record that may never be repeated again. In 2023, the injury bug bit hard with both Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson each missing half the season and the Vikings finished third in fumbles lost and receivers dropped 10 more passes than last year and they went 6-8 in one-score games.

All of that doesn’t even begin to describe it. Jefferson reaching out over the goal line and fumbling out of the back of the end zone cost them a lead at half in Philly. TJ Hockenson’s drop in the end zone cost them a win over the Chargers. A picked-up flag cost them against the Chiefs. A fumble in Broncos territory sparked Denver’s comeback. A shanked punt against the Bears opened the door for a game-winning drive. An underthrown ball toward a wide open Jefferson got them versus the Lions. And on and on…

The luck pendulum didn’t just swing back the other way against the Vikings, it hit them with Thor’s hammer.

Preseason question: Will Kirk Cousins take another step in Year 2 under Kevin O’Connell?

Answer: Mostly yes

By the numbers, Cousins’ first eight games were terrific. He was on pace to push for 5,000 yards passing and had a 103.8 quarterback rating. Was he really playing the “best football of his career” though? That would be a bold statement.

The Vikings played from behind often in the early stages of the season, which leads to defenses playing softer. When trailing Cousins threw 161 passes and posted 1,202 yards, 12 TDs and 2 INTs with a 109.8 QB rating. When tied or ahead he threw 150 passes with 1,029 yards, 7 TDs, 3 INTs and 96.8 rating. That isn’t to say he was playing poorly by any stretch. His victories against the 49ers and Packers were spectacular, especially considering the team was without Jefferson.

Cousins seemed more in tune with the offense and it didn’t hurt that the team’s pass blocking put together its best stretch of his tenure. But there may have been some regression on the way. Against pressure Cousins produced a 104.4 QB rating, about 20 points higher than at any other point in his career.

Still, the Vikings faced a lot of mediocre pass defenses down the stretch and the veteran quarterback would have gotten Jefferson back in the lineup and had a chance to post some of his best career numbers. It’s safe to say that he wasn’t a wildly different QB than 2022 but did take a step forward in the offense.

Preseason question: Will Jordan Addison create a top-notch receiving duo with Justin Jefferson?

Answer: 100% yes

Addison’s rookie season was a dream scenario for the Vikings. He gained the third most yards among all rookie receivers and took charge when Jefferson went down with a hamstring injury. While he dropped in the first round of the draft because he is undersized, Addison remained healthy for the entire season playing all 17 games. He established himself as a threat as a deep and intermediate receiver, which will be a nightmare for opponents to deal with. Unfortunately for the Vikings they only had a handful of games to demonstrate just how effective Jefferson and Addison can be together because of JJ’s injury. But this tandem (assuming JJ signs an extension) is set to drive defenses insane for many years to come.

Preseason question: Will the Vikings find their RB1?

Answer: Not exactly but maybe

The Vikings went into training camp with Alexander Mattison as the clear-cut starter and hope that either Ty Chandler or Kene Nwangwu would emerge as a change-of-pace back. Mattison led the team with 700 yards rushing but finished the season as the backup to Chandler, who finished the year with 460 yards at 4.5 yards per carry. He also caught 21 passes at 7.6 yards per reception. Overall as a rushing attack they were 29th in rushing yards and 20th in rushing Expected Points Added.

Chandler showed potential to take on the starting role next season, though carrying the ball 100 times in a season is different than a full-time RB1 workload. They should be pleased with the direction of Chandler but it’s likely that another running back will be part of the mix next year.

Preseason question: How will Brian Flores impact the Vikings defense?

Answer: In lots of positive ways

It was the tale of three seasons for Brian Flores’ defense. At the beginning of the year it looked like the Vikings were in for a long year. They allowed 900 yards in games against Philly and Los Angeles and then hunkered down and gave up more than 25 points only twice in a 10-week stretch in the middle of the year. But the weight of an offense that turned the ball over and key injuries eventually got too heavy for the defense to carry and they struggled to the end of the season, giving up 120 points over the final four weeks.

In the end the Vikings finished 14th in points and 16th in yards allowed, which was a huge jump from last season. Flores played in integral role in identifying, developing talent and maximizing players like Ivan Pace Jr., Cam Bynum, Josh Metellus and DJ Wonnum. If he doesn’t land a head coaching job the Vikings will be thrilled to have him return and build on what they started.

Rest at the link:

Preseason question: Will 2022 draft picks Lewis Cine, Andrew Booth Jr. or Ed Ingram emerge in Year 2?

Preseason question: Will anyone aside from Danielle Hunter emerge as a pass rush threat?

Preseason question: How will inexperienced players in the secondary fare?

Preseason question: Is this finally the year the Vikings have a good offensive line?

Preseason question: Will TJ Hockenson justify his big pay day?

Flores Needs More Talent to Be a Top Ten Unit Next Season

Brian Flores needs to be commended for the results he got with less than top-level talent at most positions. Apart from Danielle Hunter, who’s now a free agent, the Vikings did not have a top-level pass rusher this season at either edge or interior positions. Flores got more than expected from a UDFA and an aging veteran at linebacker, and saw a return to form for Cam Bynum, who struggled mightily last season after an impressive rookie season at free safety. And Josh Metellus continued to do well, although his coverage at slot corner was not ideal.

Overall coverage in the defensive secondary was decent- and a pleasant surprise over expectations at the beginning of the season- but was still exploited too often. Akayleb Evans had a poor finish to a mediocre season- he was benched a couple times in the last couple games- and at this point doesn’t offer much hope for improvement.

On the other hand, rookie Mekhi Blackmon had a promising rookie season and second-year man Andrew Booth Jr. did well over the 99 snaps he had- mostly toward the end of the season.

New acquisition this season Byron Murphy Jr. didn’t have great stats and didn’t grade well, but often seemed to have the toughest assignments. His value might be judged in part by the decline of the defensive performance in the last few games of the season when he was out with an MCL strain.

But at the end of the day, Brian Flores needs more talent on the defensive line and at cornerback. The Vikings finished 25th in overall defensive team grade this past season, including second-to-last in pass rush grade, 23rd in tackling, 18th in run defense, and 16th in coverage. The fact that Flores managed to be 13th in points allowed and 16th in yards allowed speaks to the fact that he did more with less this season.

Attracting and Retaining Talent

In addition to needing more talent, the Vikings also need to keep the quality talent they had on the roster last season.

Danielle Hunter tops that list, who had a healthy and very productive season for the Vikings, ranking 5th in sacks (16.5) and tied for first in tackles for loss (which include sacks) at 23. I would imagine the Vikings could extend Hunter for around $20 million AAV. Hunter played for that amount this season but earned another $3 million in incentives with his sack total. Hunter has indicated he’d like to be back with the Vikings, but obviously a deal needs to be worked out.

Jordan Hicks is also a free agent and has expressed a desire to return to the Vikings next season. This seems like a relatively easy deal to accomplish. Hicks took a pay-cut last year to remain with the Vikings, playing for $5 million last season. Extending him another year or two at a similar salary cap amount- perhaps a little less- would be appropriate. Hicks was the 23rd ranked off-ball linebacker by PFF grade- his highest grade in the last five seasons.

Other restricted/free agents worthy of extension in some role include DJ Wonnum, Jonathon Bullard, Khyiris Tonga, and Theo Jackson. I wouldn’t extend Marcus Davenport after he went MIA this season with an ankle injury that was never described as serious, or ever really described much at all. Davenport had a similar history in New Orleans. Moving on from Dean Lowry, who was ineffective before getting injured, makes sense given his $4.5 million salary cap hit in 2024 with no dead cap.

The other notable player out there is Harrison Smith. He may retire and that wouldn’t be the worst thing for the Vikings at this point. They’ve got a capable replacement for Smith in Josh Metellus, although depth would be more of a question mark with Lewis Cine not having developed to date. But if Smith decides to play another year, the Vikings would need to work out another pay cut for him, down to around his dead cap hit level of $7.8 million. That would save $11.4 million in cap space for the Vikings, who could use that space to acquire another player.

Specifically, the Vikings could use another veteran defensive back. There are a lot of interesting options available from Antoine Winfield Jr. to Jaylon Johnson, L’Jarius Sneed, Kendall Fuller, CJ Gardner-Johnson, among others. Bolstering the secondary with another veteran presence that can hold down a starting job as younger players develop could be a solid investment for the Vikings at this point.

The Vikings could also use more talent up front. Assuming they’re able to extend Hunter, they have a couple veteran guys in Hunter and Phillips and could extend some mid-tier vets like Bullard and Wonnum, but need more young talent besides Jacquelin Roy and Andre Carter II, neither of which saw much action this season.

Using a top draft pick on a defensive lineman like Jer’Shan Newton is a possibility, and the Vikings could also consider moving on from Harrison Phillips ($2.3 million dead cap hit) who regressed this season and upgrading the position by pursuing a higher-end interior pass rusher like Christian Wilkins or Leonard Williams, and even a Javon Kinlaw- with a much lower market value- could prove to be a good addition and replacement for Patrick Jones II as an interior rusher on passing downs.

Bottom Line

The Vikings’ defense got better under Brian Flores this season, despite not having the best talent at many positions. In order to improve next season, the Vikings will need to upgrade their talent on the defensive side of the ball. That likely means dedicating more draft capital to that side of the ball, and reallocating salary cap space to maximize performance. That would result in some changes among starters next season, but this is the NFL and changes are not only common but expected. It’s a rare team that doesn’t have some important turnover on their roster from year-to-year, and the Vikings are not at the stage where that is likely- at least not on the defensive side of the ball.