2021 Offseason Discussion - Free Agency and Roster Moves

Good post MidwinterViking . Let me add to it a bit and comment on what you have:

- I would put DT up in burning needs at this moment since it's expected Jaleel will not return and Shamar will probably be released (there's just no way the Vikings can justify him at $5m against the cap, no matter how much Zimmer likes him eating double-teams to free up Kendricks). Yes, Pierce is expected to return to fill NT, but DT/3T is still a burning need in the middle of the DL.

- I would put RB3 as a regular need; I'm not sure we make a tender offer to Boone or not and I don't think we resign Abdullah so we'll need a RB3 in the mix; that will probably be filled via a Day 3 pick or UDFA (like Boone was).

- Agree that FS is a burning need with Harris not expected back, but what about FS depth? Metellus is probably expected to backup Harrison Smith, but other than Myles Dorn & Luther Kirk (both PS players), what depth do we have? You mentioned moving Hand to FS which is OK, but creates another CB depth spot. So either FS depth is a need or DB depth as as whole is a need - not just CB3, but possibly CB4 if Hand moves to FS.

- What about OL depth? Even if Reiff stays, is Udoh expected to take Hill's place as the Swing OT? LG is the biggest/brightest need as you have listed, but our OL depth currently consists of this (if you consider Reiff, "burning need", Bradbury, Ezra, O'Neill as the starting five): Dru Samia, Oli Udoh, Kyle Hinton, Blake Brandel and Zack Bailey...basically, it's Dru & Oli (one of which is already considered a "bust" by most fans) and bunch of PS-level players. There's a need there for not only a LG, but "quality" depth. I've seen suggestions that Samia be released/cut this offseason and I'm not totally against that given how poorly he looked and the lack of any IOL development on this team in the Zimmer era, so we could possibly have 2 OL depth openings this offseason.

- I do think Rudy is probably gone, so Irv becomes TE1, Conklin becomes TE2 and possibly Brandon Dillon becomes TE3. The problem is that TE3 is typically reserved for our "blocking TE" (think Rhett Ellison, David Morgan type) and I'm not sure Dillon fits that bill. I think TE3 is something we go after on Day 3 of the 2021 Draft. Also, I don't think the Vikings will want to designate Rudy a post-June 1st relief; sure, they get more cap relief that way for the entire 2021 season, but you don't get the use that extra cap relief until June 1st when free agency is pretty much over. The Vikes will probably need the money in March to be active in Tier 2 / Tier 3 free agency.

- Lastly, what about QB2 or QB3? Mannion isn't under contract for 2021 and even if we expect Stanley to step-up into QB2 role in 2021+, that leaves a QB3 opening. I'm not counting on Browning for anything.

- Assuming Barr stays and Wilson leaves, I think the expectation is that Dye will step up into the LB3 role and the hole for the LB becomes LB depth behind those 3, which is very thin, consisting only of Cameron Smith and Ryan Connelly.

Building on your list, these are the "current" glaring roster holes as we stand now before free agency (and before we release players, except for Rudy who I'm hedging on leaving via trade or release), IMO:

Burning Needs:
- LG
- DT
- FS

Regular Needs:
- OL depth (at least 1, maybe 2)
- DE
- WR3
- RB3
- LB depth
- CB depth
- FS depth
- TE depth
- QB depth

That makes 12 roster spots that I think are open. Some of them could be filled with existing players on roster (ie, Stanley could step up to become QB2 and Browning could take sole possession of QB3), but I'm not going to count on that given what we've seen from our "depth" in 2020 (or lack of it).

Bottom line: there's a bunch of holes on this roster, which I think was the theme of your overall post...and how can we possibly fill them all given our lack of cap space (ie, releasing someone to open up space just creates another hole and we're playing "whack-a-mole" at that point). I think this is one reason why poster Danchat proposed "blowing it all up" in his first offseason plan and I (and I believe more than 50% of Viking fans out there) believe the same thing (we're not contending for anything other than playoffs at this point....so if that's the case, what's the point?)

To me, the answer is going to have to be a combination of releasing "some" players, restructuring contracts (converting base salaries into bonuses such as roster or signing bonuses which you can then spread to future years), signing Tier 2 free agents and trading down to create more Top 100 draft picks to fill some holes with "quality" rookies from Rounds 1 through 3.

Here's my very high-level proposal (without going through all the math):

Releases or trades in March (to free up cap space):
- Rudy
- Shamar
- Bailey
- Colquitt
- KJ Osborn
- Mike Hughes

Restructures (to free up cap space):
- Harrison (combination of extension and restructure to convert base salary to signing bonus)
- Reiff (we convince him to stay and pay him more up-front in 2021, add 2 yrs and convert base salary to signing bonus and spread over add'l years)
- Cousins (burns me to type this, but we all know something has to be done by March 19th and all signs point to another extension vs a trade - the proverbial can is kicked further down the road...I think we potentially explore adding "void years", too)
- Barr (pay cut and restructure...I think Rick comes to him and says if you want to stay, you need to take a pay cut and he'll ultimately stay and we convert base salary into roster bonus..ie, if he plays, he gets paid)
- Thielen (I think we may come to him and actually convert some of his base salary to bonus to spread and free up a little cap here)

Roster Holes going into free agency: 13 (created the add'l one from above when I released Colquitt)

Here's how I fill them:

LG: I do think we go after Thuney. It was rumored we tried to trade for him last offseason and I keep hearing him mentioned again this offseason here-and-there (maybe I listen to too much Purple Daily/Mackey & Judd crap). I know it could be considered a pipe-dream for some considering how much in cap it'll cost us and we're currently under water, but since we can't develop IOL and Zimmer is hellbent on going D early in April, I think Rick and Rob free-up enough through releases & restructures to actually fit him in. The starting OL in 2021 will be Reiff-Thuney-Bradbury-Ezra-O'Neill. Yes, O'Neill will get his extension but keep in him the extra dollars don't kick in until after 2021 when he's off from his rookie deal (2021 is the 4th and final year of his current cheap contract). So w/ Reiff restructured, the "big hitters" in terms of cap costs on the OL are Reiff and Thuney. If we flip Reiff next offseason (and "eat" the dead cap we used to extend him) the "big hitters" in 2022 will be Thuney and O'Neill.

FS1: "cheap" Tier 2 free agent (ie, Malik Hooker on a 1-yr "prove-it" deal for $2m, loaded w/ incentive and potential roster bonus pmt)

DT: "cheap" Tier 2 free agent (ie, Geunther convinces Zimmer to bring in Geno Atkins)

CB depth: "cheap" Tier 2 free agent (ie, either K'Waun Williams if SF lets him loose, or Geron Conley on a 1-yr "prove-it" deal similar to Hooker)

OL depth: "cheap" Tier 3 free agent; yes, I think we go the Brett Jones/Dakota Dozier route yet again, but at least this time they won't compete for a starting OL job

P: "cheap" scrap heap free agent; goin' to the scrap heap to find two P's to bring into camp and the best one wins the job

Draft: we current enter w/ 10 picks and we're sure to pick up a 4th and 7th once Comps are announced so we're at 12 before Day 1. We end up trading down in the 1st to get a 2nd (so we're at 13) and then we trade-up in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th Rds which takes away 3 picks so we ultimately end at 10 total picks (1-Day 1, 3-Day 2 so 4 Top 100 picks again, and the other 6 on Day 3)

Rd 1 (in the 20's somewhere): DE (doesn't matter who, but I think it might be Jaelen Phillips of he's around; he's the most pro-ready of them all on Day 1, IMO). Odenigbo is back in 2021 on a 2nd-Rd tender and Phillips is rotational in 2021 and then competes for RDE in 2022+.
Rd 2 (we trade up): OT/OG; think Sam Cosmi, Alijah Vera-Tucker, etc) - someone from Rd 1 will fall into the Top 10 of Rd 2 and we'll move up to take one; yes we extended Reiff, but we'll dump him in 2022 and eat cap while Thuney/O'Neill eat up the lion's share of OL cap in 2022/2023, so we need a OT/OG flexible body for 2022+ to plug in where the hole is
Rd 3a: WR3 - if Amari Rodgers falls out of Rd 2 I think we may trade up to ensure of landing him
Rd 3b: DT - possibly Marvin Wilson or another "fatty" NT to backup Pierce if he doesn't work out; Atkins/Lynch/Watts will be our 3T rotation
Rd 4a: FS depth: James Wiggins (Cincinnati); he shouldn't last much into Day 3
Rd 4b: QB2 - I'm really intrigued by Stanford's Davis Mills and think he could develop into a game manager starting QB in 2-3 yrs (when Cousins rolls off and all were left with is his "void year" dead money)
Rd 5: CB depth; Benjamin St-Juste or Cameron Bynum could make sense here
Rd 6a: TE3 is addressed here: probably Boise St's John Bates (I like Notre Dame's Tommy Tremble but he goes in the 4th or 5th)
Rd 6b: LB: just another Cameron Smith/Ben Gedeon type here - hopefully this one provides ST value and stays healthy
Rd 7: RB3 - Louisville's Javion Hawkins or Oklahoma's R Stevenson; both may be gone by here, but a RB who projects well in outside zone/1-gap-and-go schemes