2021 Offseason Discussion - Free Agency and Roster Moves

As an important offseason looms, let’s look at the five things that will be most pressing for the team.

1. Improve the defensive line

There’s a chance this is an easy fix, which not many teams with a defensive line as bad as the Vikings can say. But such is the reality after Danielle Hunter suffered a season-ending injury at the start of training camp and the Vikings’ second-best lineman, Michael Pierce, opted out, citing concerns over COVID-19.

Of course, Hunter is priority No. 1. If he’s capable of returning from back surgery to the high level of play he’s posted in recent seasons, the Vikings’ defensive line immediately jumps from among the worst in the league to an average unit. That’s how good Hunter is. Consider this: Hunter had 14.5 sacks last season (and the season before, in fact). The entire group of Vikings defensive linemen has 11.5 sacks with one game to play this season. In other words, the Vikings can expect to double their sack output from linemen just by getting Hunter back.

Of course, the last part of that sentence is the key. After the Vikings announced that back surgery would end Hunter’s season, his camp leaked to NFL media that Hunter would like to become the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL or be traded.

That seems an unlikely proposition. Yes, it’s fair for Hunter to feel he’s underpaid. He probably is. But after he’s missed the entire season because of a back injury, it hardly seems like the time he’d have the leverage to earn that kind of contract. It’s easy to see the Vikings saying, sure, we’ll pay you the way you deserve to be paid once you show that you’re healthy and still capable of averaging near a sack a game. But at the same time, Hunter can point to performances like Friday and say, well, you need me more than I need you.

Is he interested in leaving Minnesota, and that’s why he’s making such lofty demands? Was this all a miscommunication from his camp? There’s a lot that’s unclear about this situation, which is why it should be at the top of Rick Spielman’s to-do list.

Beyond Hunter, the Vikings can expect that Pierce would be a significant improvement at defensive tackle, but they’ll also likely bring in more competition for the three-technique spot, either via a cheap veteran in free agency or a Day 2 draft pick.

Even if the Vikings get Hunter and Pierce to play next season, it’s also up in the air who plays at defensive end opposite Hunter. Ifeadi Odenigbo is a restricted free agent, and D.J. Wonnum, who earned his first career start Friday, will compete for one of the defensive end jobs, too.

This position has been in need of an upgrade all season, and that was never more apparent than in Friday’s game against the Saints, when they were poor against the pass and even worse against the run.

2. Figure out who plays safety

One of the biggest surprises from last year’s draft was the fact that the Vikings didn’t draft a safety before the sixth round. Because of that, they’re in a tough situation at the position.

Anthony Harris just played out the year on the franchise tag, and after being asked to do a lot more because of the team’s young cornerbacks, his play dipped. He routinely took bad angles against Kamara and was a poor tackler, part of the reason the Saints ran all over Minnesota. At this point, I would be surprised if he returned to the Vikings.

Meanwhile, Harrison Smith is about to enter the final year of his contract with a cap hit of $10.25 million, all of which can be saved if the Vikings were to cut him. Because of that (and because he has played OK at 31), I think he’s a prime target for a new deal. Depending on what he’s looking for, it seems perfectly conceivable that the Vikings could restructure his contract to lower his cap hit in 2021 while adding years to the deal.

That would, importantly, allow the Vikings to keep one of their two safeties. It’s going to be hard enough to replace Harris when they don’t have much cap space and this isn’t a deep draft for the position. So replacing both safeties seems unwise.

3. Make the offensive line better

OK, so this one seems like a perpetual item on the team’s offseason to-do list. But here we are again. While I don’t think the situation on the offensive line is as dire as previous seasons, it’s still an area for significant improvement.

First and foremost is figuring out who plays left tackle. Riley Reiff accepted a pay cut in September, and now the Vikings have three options: bring him back with a $13.95 million cap hit, ask him to take a second pay cut in seven months, or cut him and save $11.75 million on the cap. The middle scenario doesn’t seem too realistic since I doubt Reiff would be willing to accept another cut. The former isn’t ideal since that’s a huge number for a cap-strapped team to pay an average left tackle. The latter isn’t ideal either since it’s not clear that Ezra Cleveland is ready to play tackle. The Vikings, after all, determined he was better at guard this season. And even if Cleveland is ready to play left tackle, then the Vikings would have two openings at guard considering they’re going to need to replace Dakota Dozier, too. All of that needs to happen without the freedom to sign the best free agents because of their cap situation, and the position may not be the top priority in the draft because of other needs.

In short, there are no easy answers here — which feels awfully familiar for this position.

4. Figure out which veterans return

The salary cap is set to drop by around $20 million. That’s bad news for a team like the Vikings, who currently are closer to the cap than any team in the league. Because of that, they’re going to have tough decisions to make on some of their well-paid veterans, including some who have been mainstays with the Vikings.

That includes deciding whether to cut Kyle Rudolph, which could save more than $5 million on the cap, and Anthony Barr, who could save more than $7 million on the cap. Both are favorites of Zimmer but could be casualties of a tough cap situation.

Rudolph has missed the past three games and has averaged less than 30 receiving yards per game the last two seasons. He’s no longer a downfield threat, and the Vikings do have two serviceable tight ends behind him on the depth chart — including Irv Smith Jr., who caught two touchdown passes Friday — which could hurt Rudolph’s chances of returning.

Barr suffered a season-ending injury in the second game this season. He was Zimmer’s first draft pick and turned down extra money from the New York Jets when he was a free agent, but Barr never turned into the sack machine the Vikings once envisioned. He’s still a very good linebacker, but the position isn’t as valuable as it once was, and the Vikings are going to have to consider all options to improve the team while remaining cap-compliant.

5. Improve the schemes

This one is a bit more difficult to quantify, but an important part of any offseason is the coaching staff scouting themselves and searching for ways to improve. For the Vikings, it’s not that their overall scheme is flawed, but it does need some fixes.

On offense, the zone rushing scheme with heavy reliance on play action can be effective and is one several teams are deploying. The problem is offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak’s predictable insistence on running the ball on second-and-short and second-and-long, two of the least-effective times to run. Oh, and they routinely struggle in the two-minute drill, including against the Saints, when they threw it to tight ends in the open field three times at the end of the first half.

On defense, Zimmer spent the second half of this season using a Cover 2 scheme, done to protect his young cornerbacks with safeties deep. But now that they’re improving and he has a full offseason with them, Zimmer might decide to return to a more complex defense next season.

And on special teams, there were so many issues that it wouldn’t be a surprise if coordinator Marwan Maalouf doesn’t return.