2021 Offseason Discussion - Free Agency and Roster Moves

Keelan Cole, WR, Jaguars
The addition of wide receivers coach Keenan McCardell — the Jaguars’ coach at that position for the past four years — to the Vikings staff alongside the entry of three Jacksonville receivers into free agency provides a unique opportunity for Minnesota. With Chad Beebe also scheduled to be a restricted free agent, the Vikings could make a choice between Beebe and a former Jaguars receiver — and could also make an upgrade at their third receiver spot without having to pay too much. A significant enough upgrade could even mean many more viable three-receiver sets, which are generally more efficient and could offset a potential loss for likely cap casualty or trade asset Kyle Rudolph.

Between Cole, Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley, Cole could be the most interesting addition. Cole and Conley both have remarkable third-down statistics. Over the last three years, the two of them rank first and second respectively in conversion percentage on third-down targets and both have short, intermediate and deep capability.

Cole and Conley also both have at least one 700-yard season under their belts, with Cole’s coming his rookie year in 2017 and Conley’s coming in 2019. They are a year apart in age and have had similar yards per route run over the last three years (1.14 for Cole and 1.13 for Conley), as well as similar deep-ball target percentage (18.0 percent and 17.2 percent, respectively), depth of target (11.1 and 12.2 yards) and somewhat similar drop rates (9.3 percent and 13.1 percent).

Cole is likely preferable to Conley — Cole, though old for a four-year player, produced immediately in Jacksonville and earned a spot despite coming in as an undrafted free agent. Conley, on the other hand, has had more years in the league with less impressive results early in his career — in the league’s best passing offense — and has been given more opportunities by dint of his draft position and remarkable athleticism.

Both might earn similar dollar values on the open market, but Cole could be the better buy. Either way, Vikings fans should keep an eye on all three Jaguars receivers once free agency opens.

Josh Reynolds, WR, Rams
Not too different from Cole or Conley from a production perspective, Reynolds is two years younger than Cole and might command a better contract as a result. His three-year rate metrics, like yards per route run (1.24), deep-ball target percentage (18.2 percent), average depth of target (12.2 yards) and drop rate (6.6 percent) are largely very similar.

While one could argue that Reynolds’ statistics are less impressive given the more productive passing environment he operated under, it’s also the case that there were significantly more targets funneled to high-value receivers with Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp on the field.

Regardless, his youth gives him an advantage, as does his experience in a play-action-heavy West Coast offense. Signing a player to play as third fiddle to Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen is smart, and Reynolds could fill that role.

Others to keep an eye on: Kendrick Bourne (49ers), Danny Amendola (Lions), David Moore (Seahawks)

Austin Blythe, C/G, Rams
It would be nice to sign Joe Thuney or a player like Brandon Scherff, but their price tags are likely far too high for Minnesota. The Vikings’ need on the offensive line is fairly glaring along the interior, and it’s paramount for the Vikings to replace Dakota Dozier as well as find solutions at left guard, where Ezra Cleveland may not be viable.

Blythe has played both guard and center for the Rams and has shown capability to perform in the wide zone scheme the Vikings run. He played well enough last year, but his career has been uneven, and worrisome play in 2019 — when he played guard much more often — will impact his market. Still, he has the intelligence and athleticism to compete for a starting spot without breaking the bank. If anything, he offers a clear upgrade path at one of the positions if the Vikings can’t secure a player in the draft.

Others to keep an eye on: Brian Winters (Bills), David Andrews (Patriots)

Ty Nsekhe, T, Bills
A remarkable backup and viable spot starter for Washington before signing with the Bills last season — and very familiar with zone blocking — Nsekhe could be a great get for the Vikings if they happen to cut Riley Reiff. Even after restoring his $1 million signing bonus, they can still make a decision to move on from him, something they were seemingly comfortable doing when they needed to make room for Yannick Ngakoue last offseason.

If so, the solution at tackle either comes from Cleveland, a free agent or a draft pick. If they forgo the option to sign a high-value free agent, they could sign someone like Nsekhe, who has demonstrated talent at both right and left tackle. Should Minnesota want to move Brian O’Neill to left tackle, Nsekhe can immediately pick up on the right side.

If Cleveland takes over the role, they’ll have one of the best backup tackles in the NFL, one to replace a potentially departing Rashod Hill, who is scheduled to hit free agency. Hill is a good backup but not quite viable as a starter in a competition for the role, but Nsekhe is and will likely be forced to sign a contract reflective of the fact that he didn’t beat out Daryl Williams or Cody Ford for a starting spot but demonstrated starting ability when forced to play.

Others to keep an eye on: Cam Robinson (Jaguars), Elijah Wilkinson, (Broncos), Ty Sambrailo (Titans)

Ndamukong Suh, DL, Buccaneers
Now that Suh no longer breaks the bank as a free agent, he might be a worthwhile get for the Vikings. There’s a good chance they lose some defensive tackles to free agency or cap casualty, but that almost doesn’t matter — they need to fill out their defensive interior, even with the return of Michael Pierce. With the draft as thin as it is at defensive tackle, it might make sense to grab a veteran while developing a mid-round pick instead of hoping a rookie can start out of the gate.

Suh’s age (34) makes for a short-term contract, and he still can be productive. He ranked ninth, tied with the Bears’ Akiem Hicks, among all interior defenders in pressures with 50 and ranked 27th, tied with the Titans’ Jeffery Simmons, in stops. He has played both nose tackle and three-technique throughout his career and offers the kind of versatility the Vikings have been hoping to build at the position, but with proven production in his multiple roles.

Suh is no longer the player that wrecked gameplans, but he’s effective as a pass-rusher and could help out players like Danielle Hunter and Pierce set a stout front.

Others to keep an eye on: Sheldon Rankins (Saints), Larry Ogunjobi (Browns)

Ryan Kerrigan, Edge, Washington
Another aging defender, Kerrigan has had his best years behind him. He didn’t have the dominance at his peak that Suh had by any means, but he was excellent for a long period of time. Now with Montez Sweat and Chase Young ahead of him on the depth chart, Kerrigan has been reduced to a limited role. Unfortunately, he hasn’t turned that limited role into high-impact, efficient production.

This might be the end of the road for Kerrigan, but his history and prior athleticism should place him on the Vikings’ radar as someone who can provide some pressure for a short amount of time. His dropoff means that he shouldn’t command too much in the open market, but the Vikings’ excellent DL coaching might be able to revive the talent he showed earlier in his career.

He otherwise fits the physical profile of a Vikings edge rusher and has shown the ability to shut down the run in the past, making him a decent candidate for a low-contract pass rusher that can take on some of the load Hunter will see. And if they get lucky, he might produce at a high level.

Hoping to revive a veteran career doesn’t always work, as the Cowboys found out this year with their many free-agency shots along the defensive line, but it is a worthwhile strategy for a team as cap-strapped as the Vikings appear to be.

Others to keep an eye on: Tarell Basham (Jets), Deatrich Wise (Patriots), Tyus Bowser (Ravens)

Darqueze Dennard, CB, Falcons
The Vikings ran into problems with a young cornerback corps completely unfamiliar with the system Mike Zimmer wanted to run. Should they sign a cornerback to compete for a starting spot or one to play in the nickel and allow Jeff Gladney to focus on outside play, they’ll want to be able to hit the ground running with the progress they made last year.

Luckily, there are cornerbacks with experience running Zimmer’s system. Dennard has previous experience with the Bengals, where he performed well enough in the slot to be worth a look without costing too much against the cap and could have outside versatility in case of depth issues.

Minnesota doesn’t have very many options here, and they’ll likely have to take a shot somewhere in the draft at corner in order to avoid the catastrophic level of play they saw at times last year, especially after injury. Mike Hughes isn’t really a player they can count on to be handed the job outright, but a healthy competition would be nice.

Others to keep an eye on: Michael Davis (Chargers), Jourdan Lewis (Cowboys), Gareon Conley (Texans), Jason Verrett (49ers)

There are other positions the Vikings could explore, of course. If they want a developmental backup at quarterback, they could look into the 49ers’ C.J. Beathard, who can bring his insights from the Shanahan system into the compatible system of the Vikings while also bringing experience and some production to the fore. The Vikings aren’t all that set at linebacker but don’t need more coverage specialists, so run-thumpers like B.J. Goodson (Browns) and Denzel Perryman (Chargers) make a good deal of sense to replace the hole that was previously filled by Ben Gedeon. And safety is a big problem, too — especially with the need for versatility. In that case, 49ers centerfielder Jaquiski Tartt could fit the bill.

The Vikings have a number of options in free agency, and though they may not make any splash signings, their decisions could impact the possibilities they have of making a genuine playoff run — something they seem committed to doing.