2021 Offseason Discussion - Free Agency and Roster Moves

Matthew’s big fish list

RG BRANDON SCHERFF | 2020 TEAM: WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM
Maybe it’s time to throw some money at a persistent problem. Scherff is an elite guard who has allowed fewer sacks since 2018 than Dakota Dozier did last year alone. He ranked second in the NFL in pass blocking grade by PFF last year and finished in the top 10 run blocking.

To some teams, spending upwards of $15 million on a guard would be ridiculous but the vast majority of pressure has come up the middle since the Vikings signed Kirk Cousins and a star guard would impact him more positively than most QBs. Signing Scherff would likely cause the Vikings to move on from Riley Reiff and slide Ezra Cleveland to left tackle.

LG JOE THUNEY | 2020 TEAM: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Thuney isn’t quite on Scherff’s level but he still graded as a top-15 guard last season and gave up 17 total pressures. That’s 29 fewer than Dozier. He also fits the athletic profile that Vikings like when running wide zone. Thuney has been incredibly durable and consistent, playing at least 980 snaps every year of his career. He also hasn’t graded outside of the top 15 in pass blocking since 2016.

CB WILLIAM JACKSON | 2020 TEAM: CINCINNATI BENGALS
Jackson set the bar so high as a rookie that he hasn’t quite lived up the “elite” corner status but his body of work is still impressive. In four years, he’s given up just an 85.3 rating on throws into his coverage. With other needs, there will be arguments against allocating more to the cornerback position but even if Cam Dantzler and Jeff Gladney thrive next season they could still use another DB. Mike Zimmer plays the vast majority of defensive snaps in a nickel package. Jackson’s presence would allow Gladney to focus solely on playing the slot corner spot.

CB DESMOND KING | 2020 TEAM: TENNESSEE TITANS
Signing King would represent the opposite approach. He has largely been a nickel cornerback over his four seasons in the NFL. For three of those years he was among the best at that job in the game. In 2020, he was traded to a putrid Tennessee defense and didn’t have the same results as previous years but that shouldn’t scare off the Vikings, in part because his tackling and run defense were still top notch and King was an impact blitzer.

S JOHN JOHNSON III | 2020 TEAM: LOS ANGELES RAMS
While the Vikings have usually (not so much 2020) filled the safety position next to Harrison Smith cheaply, we’ve also been left to wonder what that might look like with a top-notch player next to him. Anthony Harris gave us a glimpse in 2019 but did not sustain that level into 2020. Johnson III has been a top 10 safety by PFF in his last two full seasons. He’s coming from a system that played a lot of two-deep, as the Vikings do. With a young cornerback group, it might benefit them to add a difference maker on the back end who could take over for Smith if the All-Pro eventually exits stage left.

WR COREY DAVIS | 2020 TEAM: TENNESSEE TITANS
The former fifth overall pick might be looking for a spot where he can be the guy but he was extremely effective in a secondary role with the Titans last season. Ryan Tannehill had a 123.6 rating when targeting Davis on 92 targets. If the Vikings cut Kyle Rudolph and slide Irv Smith Jr. into the TE1 spot, they’ll still have some space for another playmaker. Davis, in a similar system, averaged over 15 yards per catch in 2020. The Vikings were lacking another downfield threat outside of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen.

DE CARL LAWSON | 2020 TEAM: CINCINNATI BENGALS
Yannick Ngakoue might not have been the type of player worth paying a huge contract to be a long-term answer at defensive end across from Danielle Hunter (maybe?) but Carl Lawson is on another level. Last year Lawson ranked fourth in QB pressures and received the ninth highest pass rush grade from PFF. The only issue is that he probably won’t come at a bargain price, even if his terrific season went under the national radar playing in Cincinnati.

WR CURTIS SAMUEL | 2020 TEAM: CAROLINA PANTHERS
Playmaker, playmaker, playmaker. Samuel lined up all over the field for the Panthers last season and worked both as a threat on quick passes with the ball in his hands and a deep option downfield with his 4.31 40-yard dash speed. He caught 10 passes that traveled over 20 yards and 22 behind the line of scrimmage. If making Kirk Cousins’s life easier with another dangerous receiver is an offseason goal, Samuel should be on the Vikings’ radar.

CB TROY HILL | 2020 TEAM: LOS ANGELES RAMS
A versatile corner who played both inside and outside for the Rams, Hill had a breakout year allowing just a 81.2 rating into his coverage and made plays on the ball with three interceptions and eight pass breakups. The Vikings were missing a playmaking element to their secondary last season that Hill could bring if he’s added to the mix. Even though he’s a big fish in terms of how he performed last year, he might be the most affordable player on this list.

DE TREY HENDRICKSON: 2020 TEAM: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
In a situational role for the Saints last year Hendrickson was incredibly productive, ranking only behind TJ Watt and Joey Bosa in pressure rate. Of course the question is whether he’s a one-year wonder and how he might translate to a role that’s more demanding against the run. But the Vikings were among the worst teams in the NFL in rushing the passer last season and may want to bring in someone who can be an immediate answer rather than hoping to hit in the draft.

Sam’s bargain list

LG MIKE IUPATI | 2020 TEAM: SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
He’s not the guy who peaked with the Arizona Cardinals in about 2015, but he’s still pretty good at age 33. While Iupati doesn’t fit the Vikings’ usual profile of quick, slender offensive linemen, he’s nonetheless a really good run blocker and ran some zone with the Seattle Seahawks the last two years. Graded out as the 24th best guard last season, per PFF, even though he struggled late in the year after returning from injury.

With Iupati, you’re crossing your fingers he stays healthy, but odds are he costs around $2 million and gives you definite improvement over Dakota Dozier.

G LANE TAYLOR | 2020 TEAM: GREEN BAY PACKERS
Why not roll the dice on a 31-year-old former rival that’s looking to rebuild his career? Lane Taylor has only played three games the last two years with a torn biceps (2019) and torn ACL (2020), so there’s plenty of risk involved, but his price will reflect that. For what it’s worth, he was the highest graded Packers offensive lineman in Week 1 when Green Bay beat the Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium.

Taylor can play either guard spot and is historically an above average pass blocker. He feels like a perfect candidate to compete in training camp and potentially win a spot.

DT LAWRENCE GUY | 2020 TEAM: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
After journeying around the league for three seasons as a young seventh-round pick, 31-year-old Lawrence Guy carved out a nice career for himself, first in Baltimore, then in New England. Guy was ranked the No. 13 interior pass rusher by PFF in 2018 and had four pressures of Jared Goff in a Super Bowl win. He also had his season-best performance in New England’s win over the Vikings.

Guy hasn’t been quite as explosive in recent seasons, but he’s perfect as a rotational player that can play inside and outside, get after the passer a bit and stop the run extremely well. Guy finished top 25 in run-stop percentage each year in New England, including two years in the top 10.

DT SHELBY HARRIS | 2020 TEAM: DENVER BRONCOS
How long will Shelby Harris accept being underpaid?

The Denver Broncos have employed arguably a top 10 rotational 3-technique since 2018 and paid him a grand total of $7 million. It stands to reason Harris will want a bigger contract ASAP, but considering he turns 30 before the regular season and may have some questions about his knee, maybe there’s a shot to sign him to a reasonable two-year deal.

Harris had 15.5 sacks and 93 pressures in his four-year Broncos tenure.

WR DANNY AMENDOLA | 2020 TEAM: DETROIT LIONS
I had a heck of a time settling on a WR3 candidate. Marvin Jones has a history with Mike Zimmer, but he’s probably a little too good for the Vikings’ budget. Nelson Agholor had a solid bounce-back year with the Raiders on a cheap deal, but he has the second-highest drop rate in the league. Tim Patrick would be wonderful… if he wasn’t a restricted free agent that almost surely will get tendered.

Instead of taking a swing at a reclamation project like the Vikings have in the past (i.e., Tajae Sharpe, Michael Floyd), how about more of a sure thing? Danny Amendola is 35 years old but has scarcely shown signs of tailing off — he’s one of just five receivers since 2017 to total over 2,000 yards in their 30s. Amendola has recorded between 46 and 61 catches each of the previous four years and notched between 550-700 yards. He rarely misses games. He rarely drops balls. And 66 out of his 108 catches the last two years in Detroit have gone for first downs.

He made $5 million last year but will probably have to take a reduction because of the lowered cap. The man he’d be usurping, Chad Beebe, is going to be more expensive if the Vikings retain him on an RFA tender, potentially over $3 million, and Amendola is a definite improvement.

CB NICKELL ROBEY-COLEMAN | 2020 TEAM: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
I said in Tuesday’s story that I’m not convinced the Vikings are set at corner. They neglected to add veteran depth last year and paid for it, so instead of making the same mistake in 2021, they should sign one of the free agents they overlooked a season ago in Nickell Robey-Coleman, age 29.

Robey-Coleman switched from the Rams to the Eagles in 2020 and had a down year as quarterbacks posted a career-worst 124.2 rating when targeting him, but I’m willing to bank on his career body of work before burying him. A deeper look at some of Robey-Coleman’s numbers doesn’t paint the picture of a player that fell off the face of the earth, but perhaps someone that was getting familiar with a new system. He missed five more tackles than his career average (7) and broke up four fewer passes than his career average (5), which was enough to harm his analytics.

Bringing in another pure nickel like Robey-Coleman adds another slot option besides Mike Hughes and Jeff Gladney. Considering Robey-Coleman played in 2020 for a $1.35 million salary and didn’t improve, he’ll likely be signing for a bargain deal in 2021. Wouldn’t you prefer Robey-Coleman to, say, Chris Jones?

DE VINNY CURRY | 2020 TEAM: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
For a second straight season, Vinny Curry finished top 10 in pass-rush productivity, a metric that measures how impactful a pass-rusher is based on their opportunities. Curry has averaged just over 350 snaps the last two years (partly because of a hamstring injury in 2020), but he’s been highly productive when on the field with eight sacks and 69 pressures the last two years in Philadelphia. Other than a one-year blip in Tampa Bay in 2018, Curry has had a thoroughly productive career despite never being heavily featured.

He’s played the last two seasons for $3.55 million combined turns 33 in June. Mike Zimmer voiced his desire to find more pass rushers in his season-ending press conference, and Curry is exactly that at a low price tag.

S DURON HARMON | 2020 TEAM: DETROIT LIONS
Duron Harmon is an extremely reliable free safety that the Vikings could trust in single-high looks. He played seven strong seasons for the Patriots from 2013-19 before getting traded off to Detroit in New England’s 2020 salary shave. Also played a career high in snaps last season for the Detroit to prove his durability.

Harmon would supplement Harrison Smith perfectly after playing with a star in Devin McCourty for years with the Patriots. He played the last four seasons at just over $4 million per year and probably wouldn’t demand much more than that at age 30.

S JAQUISKI TARTT | 2020 TEAM: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Jaquiski Tartt is a more physical option at 6-foot-1, 215 pounds who’s accustomed to playing in the box and providing support in the run game, which the Vikings needed more of last year. He’s an injury liability, however, with 24 games missed since 2017. At his best, he’s a rangy playmaker in the back end.

He turns 29 on Feb. 18 (happy birthday, Jaquiski!) and probably won’t be signing any long-term deals with his injury history.

T JAMES HURST | 2020 TEAM: NEW ORLEANS
I don’t perceive tackle as a huge free agent need if Riley Reiff returns and Rashod Hill remains your swing tackle. If Reiff is cut, then I’d use the money saved to shoot higher for someone like Daryl Williams or Kelvin Beachum who can start and be a bridge until Ezra Cleveland (or a draft pick) is ready.

But there’s still not a ton of tackle depth on this team if Hill leaves or gets hurt, so I’d find a jack of all trades like 29-year-old James Hurst, who has played every position except center in his career. His last two seasons in New Orleans and Baltimore have been his best career seasons in a limited role, playing mostly left tackle. He’s historically much better as a pass-blocker than a run-blocker, which the Vikings may not like, but they’d be lying to themselves if they think they don’t need better pass blockers.

Atkins, 32, may appear incredibly underwhelming if you only look at his box score from last season. He didn’t record a sack and had just one tackle in eight games, but his poor performance was partially due to his choice to postpone surgery on a shoulder injury he incurred in training camp. He played in a limited capacity the whole season, never lining up for more than 19 snaps per game to keep as much stress off his torn Labrum as possible.

Yes, Atkins isn’t the same disruptive force he was when he logged 12.5 sacks as an interior pass rusher, he still has plenty to offer.

Minnesota’s defensive line finished 28th in sacks and only produced a 21.6% pressure rate on pass-rush snaps. Sure, getting Danielle Hunter and Michael Pierce back will help bolster this depleted unit, but there are still vacancies that need to be addressed.

Three-technique has been a hole that the Vikings have struggled to fill since nerve damage from Shariff Floyd’s surgery forced him into early retirement. While they have tried everyone from Shemar Stephan to Jaleel Johnson — even Ifeadi Odenigbo for a short period of time — nobody has locked down that spot.

Atkins and the Vikings feel like a perfect match. He probably won’t command a large salary because of his age and injury history, but he can still start at 3-tech come Week 1. He also has previous experience with both head coach Mike Zimmer and new senior defensive assistant Paul Guenther, who helped turn the 2010 fourth-rounder into a perennial Pro-Bowler.

While Atkins won’t give you the same production he did early on in his career, he could effectively bridge the gap until the Vikings draft a 3-tech to replace him. His addition would provide a lot of help as a pass-rusher, but his presence alone shouldn’t prevent the Vikings from drafting a defensive lineman to eventually replace him.

The biggest mistake the Vikings made with Sheldon Richardson was failing to acknowledge that he might not return after his one-year deal expired. They didn’t have a plan to replace him. Instead of adding a meaningful contributor at the position through the draft, they were forced to go to Stephen and Johnson.

Atkins could serve as a mentor to James Lynch and a rookie 3-tech if they draft one, helping them understand the nuances of the position he has learned in his 11-year career. His presence from the inside would be perfect for Hunter and whomever lines up across from him; the pressure Atkins could create from the outside will force quarterbacks to move out of the pocket and into the edge rushers.

While Atkins’ recent injury and age are definitely a concern, the Vikings should still inquire about adding him to the roster if he becomes a free agent.