Post by Purple Pain on Oct 2, 2024 16:22:51 GMT -6
It's early, but where do you stand?
The Athletic: Are the 4-0 Vikings true contenders?
Related piece:
The Athletic: The NFL Projection Model’s 5 biggest preseason misses: Commanders, Vikings hot starts top list
And another one:
Luke Braun's Film Room: What Is Real, And Are The Vikings For It?
...
The Athletic: Are the 4-0 Vikings true contenders?
Vikings are 4-0: Yes, Darnold & Co. are contenders
The last time a Vikings season started 4-0 (or 5-0), they collapsed midseason, finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs. But that was 2016, with Mike Zimmer and Sam Bradford, and this Minnesota team feels different. It all comes down to schemes.
Offense: Schemed simplicity
In truth, they look more like the 2023 49ers, who also started 4-0 by pairing an offensive minded-head coach and a strong run game with a better-than-expected quarterback.
Ted Nguyen explained how HC Kevin O’Connell makes it easier on Sam Darnold by scheming Justin Jefferson open. In the below example, by shifting the tight end to the right side of the field and having the receiver opposite Jefferson run a deep post, both safeties were occupied. This cleared Jefferson (bottom of your screen) to work one-on-one against the corner:
That rarely ends well for any defense, and in this case, led to a big completion.
While the scheme makes life easier, the QB is still Sam Darnold, a career journeyman to this point. Minnesota has seven turnovers — third-most in the NFL — while his three interceptions and four fumbles (one lost) remain near his career per-game averages.
This is critically important, because as Alec Lewis noted in his own look at whether the Vikings’ start is sustainable, O’Connell is 21-0 during his Vikings tenure if he avoids losing the turnover battle, something that plagued this team last year.
That’s where their defense comes in.
Defense: Schemed chaos
Brian Flores’ unit is No. 2 in takeaways per game, has deflected 32 passes in four games (seven more than any other team) and leads the NFL with 17 sacks.
How? For one, they’ve had plenty of opportunities: Minnesota has spent an NFL-low three minutes trailing and has faced a league-high 200 dropbacks, nearly a full game’s more (23) than the next team.
They also benefit from Flores’ reputation (no, not his reputation for insulting quarterbacks). Last year, he sent six-man pass rushes at nearly double the rate of any other team. So it’s understandable that a quarterback who sees six potential blitzers feels stressed — and then surprised when the Vikings instead drop into coverage. They are No. 2 in pressure rate when rushing just four players.
Quarterbacks can never trust what the Vikings initially show. In the below example, highlighted by Alec, the defense presents a man-coverage look, but when Stroud drops back, they fall into zone. See for yourself:
Their ability to disguise looks, drop seven and still bring pressure is why their defensive DVOA (-34.5 percent) is nearly double the second-best defense, New Orleans (-17.5).
What’s next?
As Mike Sando noted in his Pick Six column, since 1989, 47 teams have started 4-0 with a cumulative point differential of at least 50 (the Vikings are at 57), and nearly 40 percent of those teams reached the Super Bowl. 👀
Their remaining schedule doesn’t hurt those odds:
But despite success on both sides of the football and a winnable schedule, there are issues to address. As Alec wrote, cracks in the foundation showed as Green Bay outscored Minnesota 22-3 in the second half of Sunday’s game, exposing vulnerabilities in Flores’ defense — by stalling the pass rush, playing with pace and targeting holes in the secondary — and stacking the box against Aaron Jones and the run game while Darnold turned the ball over twice.
Still, we’ll add an asterisk there, as the Vikings had already been up three scores by halftime. And don’t forget, this is all without first-round QB J.J. McCarthy and star TE T.J. Hockenson (more info below on his upcoming return), along with minimal production from their other first-round pick, edge rusher Dallas Turner (five tackles, one sack).
They could be better, yet they are rightfully in the top spot of The Athletic’s Power Rankings. Vibes are good in Minnesota
The last time a Vikings season started 4-0 (or 5-0), they collapsed midseason, finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs. But that was 2016, with Mike Zimmer and Sam Bradford, and this Minnesota team feels different. It all comes down to schemes.
Offense: Schemed simplicity
In truth, they look more like the 2023 49ers, who also started 4-0 by pairing an offensive minded-head coach and a strong run game with a better-than-expected quarterback.
Ted Nguyen explained how HC Kevin O’Connell makes it easier on Sam Darnold by scheming Justin Jefferson open. In the below example, by shifting the tight end to the right side of the field and having the receiver opposite Jefferson run a deep post, both safeties were occupied. This cleared Jefferson (bottom of your screen) to work one-on-one against the corner:
That rarely ends well for any defense, and in this case, led to a big completion.
While the scheme makes life easier, the QB is still Sam Darnold, a career journeyman to this point. Minnesota has seven turnovers — third-most in the NFL — while his three interceptions and four fumbles (one lost) remain near his career per-game averages.
This is critically important, because as Alec Lewis noted in his own look at whether the Vikings’ start is sustainable, O’Connell is 21-0 during his Vikings tenure if he avoids losing the turnover battle, something that plagued this team last year.
That’s where their defense comes in.
Defense: Schemed chaos
Brian Flores’ unit is No. 2 in takeaways per game, has deflected 32 passes in four games (seven more than any other team) and leads the NFL with 17 sacks.
How? For one, they’ve had plenty of opportunities: Minnesota has spent an NFL-low three minutes trailing and has faced a league-high 200 dropbacks, nearly a full game’s more (23) than the next team.
They also benefit from Flores’ reputation (no, not his reputation for insulting quarterbacks). Last year, he sent six-man pass rushes at nearly double the rate of any other team. So it’s understandable that a quarterback who sees six potential blitzers feels stressed — and then surprised when the Vikings instead drop into coverage. They are No. 2 in pressure rate when rushing just four players.
Quarterbacks can never trust what the Vikings initially show. In the below example, highlighted by Alec, the defense presents a man-coverage look, but when Stroud drops back, they fall into zone. See for yourself:
Their ability to disguise looks, drop seven and still bring pressure is why their defensive DVOA (-34.5 percent) is nearly double the second-best defense, New Orleans (-17.5).
What’s next?
As Mike Sando noted in his Pick Six column, since 1989, 47 teams have started 4-0 with a cumulative point differential of at least 50 (the Vikings are at 57), and nearly 40 percent of those teams reached the Super Bowl. 👀
Their remaining schedule doesn’t hurt those odds:
But despite success on both sides of the football and a winnable schedule, there are issues to address. As Alec wrote, cracks in the foundation showed as Green Bay outscored Minnesota 22-3 in the second half of Sunday’s game, exposing vulnerabilities in Flores’ defense — by stalling the pass rush, playing with pace and targeting holes in the secondary — and stacking the box against Aaron Jones and the run game while Darnold turned the ball over twice.
Still, we’ll add an asterisk there, as the Vikings had already been up three scores by halftime. And don’t forget, this is all without first-round QB J.J. McCarthy and star TE T.J. Hockenson (more info below on his upcoming return), along with minimal production from their other first-round pick, edge rusher Dallas Turner (five tackles, one sack).
They could be better, yet they are rightfully in the top spot of The Athletic’s Power Rankings. Vibes are good in Minnesota
Related piece:
The Athletic: The NFL Projection Model’s 5 biggest preseason misses: Commanders, Vikings hot starts top list
Minnesota Vikings
Preseason playoff odds: 17%
Current playoff odds: 90%
Here’s another QB playing at an MVP level that I did not see coming. Funny enough, I actually thought my model was a little bullish on Sam Darnold and the Vikings heading into the year with their projected record at 7-10. Turns out, the model wasn’t bullish enough. The Vikings are the only unbeaten team left in the NFC and now have a great shot (35%) at securing the first-round bye. It should also be noted they’ve got some impressive wins on their résumé with victories over the San Francisco 49ers, Texans and Green Bay Packers.
Again, I have to credit the coaching staff. Coach Kevin O’Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores are getting the most out of their personnel. Coaching is one of the biggest challenges for the model. Quality coaching — or lack there of — can make a huge difference for teams, but it’s not easy to quantify or project. Take the Darnold experience. His New York Jets tenure was a disaster, and he was only OK in Carolina. The model expected he would play better in a better situation in Minnesota, but it did not foresee he would be the only undefeated quarterback that isn’t named Patrick Mahomes.
Like the Commanders, the current pace isn’t sustainable, but when you get out to a 4-0 start, going 6-7 the rest of the season is probably going to get you into the playoffs. The Vikings play a league-average schedule the rest of the way and considering they’re an above-average team, 7-6 is more likely. That gives them a most-likely record of 11-6 per my model, and that’s going to give them a great shot at not only winning the NFC North but also contending for that coveted first-round bye.
Preseason playoff odds: 17%
Current playoff odds: 90%
Here’s another QB playing at an MVP level that I did not see coming. Funny enough, I actually thought my model was a little bullish on Sam Darnold and the Vikings heading into the year with their projected record at 7-10. Turns out, the model wasn’t bullish enough. The Vikings are the only unbeaten team left in the NFC and now have a great shot (35%) at securing the first-round bye. It should also be noted they’ve got some impressive wins on their résumé with victories over the San Francisco 49ers, Texans and Green Bay Packers.
Again, I have to credit the coaching staff. Coach Kevin O’Connell and defensive coordinator Brian Flores are getting the most out of their personnel. Coaching is one of the biggest challenges for the model. Quality coaching — or lack there of — can make a huge difference for teams, but it’s not easy to quantify or project. Take the Darnold experience. His New York Jets tenure was a disaster, and he was only OK in Carolina. The model expected he would play better in a better situation in Minnesota, but it did not foresee he would be the only undefeated quarterback that isn’t named Patrick Mahomes.
Like the Commanders, the current pace isn’t sustainable, but when you get out to a 4-0 start, going 6-7 the rest of the season is probably going to get you into the playoffs. The Vikings play a league-average schedule the rest of the way and considering they’re an above-average team, 7-6 is more likely. That gives them a most-likely record of 11-6 per my model, and that’s going to give them a great shot at not only winning the NFC North but also contending for that coveted first-round bye.
And another one:
Luke Braun's Film Room: What Is Real, And Are The Vikings For It?
Breaking Down Some Turnovers
So which is sustainable? The giveaways or the takeaways? Everything else in Minnesota’s statistical profile passes the smell test. It’s these high-leverage outlier plays that figure to decide each game.
David Hume must be rolling in his grave. Here we are, immediately following a 1,000-word diatribe on the roots of Empiricism with compiled, indirect data to come to a conclusion. Let’s just look at some of these and determine how fluky they are.
Fumble luck is a logical place to start. The hallmark of a truly fraudulent team is one that gets every loose ball to bounce right to them. While recovering the ball itself is skillful (and teams drill it), there’s no controlling where that thing bounces. So we should expect half of them to bounce to you, and half to bounce to the bad guys.
To this point, Minnesota has recovered a perfect 50% of the fumbles in their games.
So which is sustainable? The giveaways or the takeaways? Everything else in Minnesota’s statistical profile passes the smell test. It’s these high-leverage outlier plays that figure to decide each game.
David Hume must be rolling in his grave. Here we are, immediately following a 1,000-word diatribe on the roots of Empiricism with compiled, indirect data to come to a conclusion. Let’s just look at some of these and determine how fluky they are.
Fumble luck is a logical place to start. The hallmark of a truly fraudulent team is one that gets every loose ball to bounce right to them. While recovering the ball itself is skillful (and teams drill it), there’s no controlling where that thing bounces. So we should expect half of them to bounce to you, and half to bounce to the bad guys.
To this point, Minnesota has recovered a perfect 50% of the fumbles in their games.
...
Let’s approach this in a Kantian way (being careful not to be too Kantian). Our experiential knowledge tells us that some of these turnover-generating skills, like reading screens or jumping routes, will continue to lead to turnovers. It also tells us that tipped balls aren’t really predictable, so we shouldn’t let a tipped interception or fumble recovery dictate our Vikings predictions.
So, is the Vikings defense relying “too much” on tipped interceptions or fumble recoveries? Only if you squint at it. Take those handful of plays away and they still have an elite success rate with a slightly dampened EPA allowed.
Is the Vikings offense getting away with murder? Not so much as to overshadow the avalanche of down-to-down offensive success. In fact, the Vikings ranking as high as they do in spite of all of these turnovers is a testament to just how high this team is flying right now. RBSDM.com has an adjusted EPA per play metric that caps the impact of outlier plays. Darnold ranks 4th in it.
There isn’t a looming harbinger of doom lying among this output. If the Vikings are to collapse, they have to start playing worse football down-to-down. They’ll have to be worse about turnovers than they already are. They’ll have to collapse from average to bad in the run game. They’ll have to start dropping more passes.
The future of this Vikings team is never going to be knowable. All we have is what we’ve seen so far. And what we’ve seen is remarkably encouraging - much more than any small doubts about a good 3rd down success rate or one too many tip drill turnovers. The evidence you can see means more than the evidence you can’t yet.
So are the Vikings real? Only if you trust your eyes.
So, is the Vikings defense relying “too much” on tipped interceptions or fumble recoveries? Only if you squint at it. Take those handful of plays away and they still have an elite success rate with a slightly dampened EPA allowed.
Is the Vikings offense getting away with murder? Not so much as to overshadow the avalanche of down-to-down offensive success. In fact, the Vikings ranking as high as they do in spite of all of these turnovers is a testament to just how high this team is flying right now. RBSDM.com has an adjusted EPA per play metric that caps the impact of outlier plays. Darnold ranks 4th in it.
There isn’t a looming harbinger of doom lying among this output. If the Vikings are to collapse, they have to start playing worse football down-to-down. They’ll have to be worse about turnovers than they already are. They’ll have to collapse from average to bad in the run game. They’ll have to start dropping more passes.
The future of this Vikings team is never going to be knowable. All we have is what we’ve seen so far. And what we’ve seen is remarkably encouraging - much more than any small doubts about a good 3rd down success rate or one too many tip drill turnovers. The evidence you can see means more than the evidence you can’t yet.
So are the Vikings real? Only if you trust your eyes.
