NFL Super Sim - Simulate Vikings Games Here!

This is actually fun.

Yes but I didn't like the other results. 

Amazing what you can do with software, data, and models!

Ha ha, thanks... except that's not my voice. It's a professional voice actor I found on Fiverr and paid for voicing the video. I can share his info if you are interested.

If you really want to hear what I sound like, I have been on the Vikings Report with Ted and Drew a couple times before. I won't link it here, but it's out there if you want to see and hear me.

Speaking of which... whenever you are around Drew Bunting and Ted Glover, check out SuperSim!


Yes, this has been an undertaking to say the least. I started out coding this in 2020 as a Python command-line script and when I decided I wanted the public to get their hands on it, I switched over to a JavaScript platform and went public Summer 2022. As a software developer, it's a great thing to have on a resume as most of my work-related projects are things I can only vaguely talk about due to the nature of internal applications. And it's on the same website I'm running the Draft Simulator from, to boot.



This is an astute point. Currently it works like this: there is a single "master" database table for the primary sources (depth charts and coach sliders being the primary ones), but when a user begins to make changes, a local version is created for them. Every week I make edits for the factors you have referenced and save them to the master version. This means that users can fetch my changes and make any tweaks they'd like.

Therein is the rub... this isn't being communicated to the user unless they have tried out the "Get Database Changes" button on the Depth Chart (or coach sliders). That's one thing I need to get figured out, I try to keep things as simple as possible for users, but super users who want to be simulating every week will likely want to get my changes. However, I don't want to force my changes onto local versions so it's up to users to hit that button when they are ready to delete all of their local changes.


You can update the Coach Sliders to reflect some of these things. But the answer to your question is no, my sliders aren't quite that advanced and I also don't account for some of these kinds of trends. The main sliders are RunPassRatio (exactly what it says on the tin), DRPG (defensive run/pass guess, the higher the number the more the defense will sell out to stop the run and vice versa) and 4th Down % (adds to the base "go for it" chance on 4th down).

I have the ability to add more sliders as it isn't that difficult to do, it's really about how unwieldy will I let the Coach Sliders get. Reignman has made some requests like changing when and how often teams go for 2. I'm open for requests.


Good question, the purpose for the simulator can be broken up into these sections:

A) I am a football nerd through and through and I love looking at stats, so meshing my experience with football with the logic that goes into how teams call plays in certain scenarios, managing how player ratings affect the game using my experience with Strat-O-Matic Football, and easily quantifying this using Madden 08 rosters. Yes, that is where the rosters come from - I have quite a bit of experience modding Madden 08 PC. Add that with my software skills and how incredibly fast modern day code runs on browsers, and now I have a really cool project to show off. A simulator that clowns PFF's latest attempt at a simulator and is far more thorough than any others that I have seen (that are publicly released).

B) I thought potentially drawing the eye of bettors might be a solid way to market it. I had also thought that it could be used for fantasy football purposes, but honestly it hasn't panned out. My next step for the simulator - other than patching up some bugs and a couple more features on my wishlist - is to figure out how to market this. I am a programmer, not a salesman. So if I am to ever monetize this, I think targeting bettors is the way to go.

SuperSim also has the ability to upload new rosters (which is currently not open to the public), so it is possible to upload classic rosters from the past or even random Madden franchise/rosters. I have a Madden Franchise I've been running for a good 13 years and I can pop it into my simulator and see how things shake out.


I believe the magic number is 52.5%, that 2.5% or so difference is massive. The house certainly wins more than half of the time.


SuperSim isn't going to be an end-all-be-all for bettors, it's a tool. It's going to have bad weeks and it can't quantify everything. This past season, I felt like it got every game wrong where a starting QB was questionable to play (see Trevor Lawrence, others) and has no difference between a player playing at 75% and 100%. It's not going to consistently beat Vegas year in and year out, but I think it has legitimate insight to give. I will stump for how accurate it is when I move players in and out for injuries - sometimes I struggle to earmark how much a team will struggle without a certain player, but this past year I felt the updates I made to the algorithm made a huge difference.

It's always going to be down to how accurate the player ratings are. If the ratings accurately reflect how well the players are performing, then I think the simulator can crack 50% year in and year out after making a few thousand simulations per game.

I think that's a long enough response, but at a later time I'd love to delve into more of the intricacies of SuperSim. Clearly, I could ramble on forever about it.

What is this? Are you simulating this on what madden?

I will look at this video and see what you talkin bout.

Just going by the rankings, the Vikings are the 7th best-rated NFC Team, so under this scenario, they would make the Playoffs as the 7th seed.

Here's how the NFC Playoffs would look:

1. PHI (BYE)

2. DET
vs
7. MIN

3. SF
vs
6. NO

4. GB
vs
5. ATL

The Vikings and Lions face each other during Wk 17 this year (at Ford Field in Detroit) and then they would turn around and play in the same game in the same stadium the following week.

This also gives the NFC North 3 Playoff teams, which would be the first time the "NFC North" (since it's formation in 2002) would have 3 teams qualify for the Playoffs in a single season. The last time the previous version of the NFC North qualified 3+ teams was in 1997, when the "NFC Central" qualified 4 out of the 6 total teams (Vikings, Packers, Lions & Bears) that year.