Post by Danchat on Sept 13, 2024 11:44:31 GMT -6
Finally, let's look at how SuperSim has been doing when calculating point spreads. Last year it beat the spread 54% of the time, and let's look at how that happened. When I determine a "win" or a "loss", I compare the point spread of a game (usually the day before the game is played, once the injury reports are distributed) to SuperSim's. I judge the "direction" SuperSim points.
For example, the Vikings-Giants line was MIN -1.5 the day before, and SuperSim thought it should be MIN -8. Therefore, the result is to choose the Vikings to cover. I don't judge the game's final score against the line, just the side it took against Vegas. Another example - the MIN-SF game Week 7 last year was at SF -7 but SuperSim calculated SF -3.5. This means that MIN +7 was the simulator's choice.
Let's look at how it did for all Vikings games in 2023:
The final record is 9-5-3. Yeah, 3 pushes! When the Vikings were underdogs, the simulator was 6-1, only missing the Saints game. When they were favored, it went 3-4, quite the major difference.
Now let's look at how things are progressing for 2024:
That's a 69% win rate at 11-5-1! There were some questionable lines that got punished and a few lucky breaks as well. A few overrated teams (ATL, CAR, NYJ) need to be adjusted for.
Let me know if you try out some simulations for Week 2!
For example, the Vikings-Giants line was MIN -1.5 the day before, and SuperSim thought it should be MIN -8. Therefore, the result is to choose the Vikings to cover. I don't judge the game's final score against the line, just the side it took against Vegas. Another example - the MIN-SF game Week 7 last year was at SF -7 but SuperSim calculated SF -3.5. This means that MIN +7 was the simulator's choice.
Let's look at how it did for all Vikings games in 2023:
The final record is 9-5-3. Yeah, 3 pushes! When the Vikings were underdogs, the simulator was 6-1, only missing the Saints game. When they were favored, it went 3-4, quite the major difference.
Now let's look at how things are progressing for 2024:
That's a 69% win rate at 11-5-1! There were some questionable lines that got punished and a few lucky breaks as well. A few overrated teams (ATL, CAR, NYJ) need to be adjusted for.
Let me know if you try out some simulations for Week 2!