PPD: The Missing Context - Why MN & Cousins Didn't Work...

whoskmoon
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PPD: The Missing Context - Why MN & Cousins Didn't Work... Jul 7, 2024 9:16:21 GMT -6 Danchat, kmillard, and 1 more like this

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Post by whoskmoon on Jul 7, 2024 9:16:21 GMT -6

Here is why what year the PPD occurs in matters:


Rk	Year	Tms	PF	Yds	Ply	Y/P	TD	Yds	Pts▼
1	2020	32	12692	183825	32945	5.6	871	32.9	2.2
2	2021	32	12502	186897	34449	5.4	840	31.7	2.05
3	2018	32	11952	180338	32224	5.6	847	31.4	2
4	2019	32	11680	178107	32516	5.5	797	31	1.94
5	2022	32	11860	184332	34136	5.4	750	31.1	1.92
6	2016	32	11661	179402	32734	5.5	786	30.6	1.91
7	2023	32	11842	180382	34331	5.3	754	29.9	1.88
8	2015	32	11680	180560	32973	5.5	842	30.2	1.84
9	2014	32	11565	178249	32779	5.4	807	30.1	1.83
10	2013	32	11985	178421	33302	5.4	804	29	1.81
11	2008	32	11279	167547	31681	5.3	646	28.8	1.8
12	2012	32	11651	177767	32882	5.4	757	29.7	1.79
13	2017	32	11120	171040	32438	5.3	741	28.9	1.78
14	2011	32	11356	177579	32569	5.5	745	29.3	1.74
15	2010	32	11283	172039	32319	5.3	751	28.5	1.74
16	2009	32	10991	171590	32222	5.3	710	28.7	1.72
17	2007	32	11104	166512	32133	5.2	720	28	1.71
18	2002	32	11097	168120	32569	5.2	694	27.8	1.71
19	2004	32	11000	167506	31978	5.2	732	27.8	1.69
20	2006	32	10577	164925	31999	5.2	648	27.6	1.65
21	2005	32	10556	161751	32021	5.1	644	26.9	1.65
22	2003	32	10666	162969	32093	5.1	654	26.8	1.63
23	1998	30	10215	152477	30264	5	658	26.5	1.63
24	2000	31	10254	158435	31231	5.1	634	26.8	1.62
25	2001	31	10024	157520	31043	5.1	635	26.6	1.56
26	1999	31	10324	158108	31557	5	665	25.9	1.55

Scoring just continues to go up and there is a big difference from even 6 years ago. We see some fluctuation like 2017 where there were a few really good defenses keeping scoring down, and 2020 where Covid caused an explosion of offense from pretty much every team. However, for the most part due to rule changes consistently benefitting the offense (the 2018 change to how a QB can be tackled comes to mind), offensive scoring will continue to go up, while playing defense becomes harder and harder. Not debatable, and the numbers don't lie.

Raptorman
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PPD: The Missing Context - Why MN & Cousins Didn't Work... Jul 7, 2024 10:24:43 GMT -6

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Post by Raptorman on Jul 7, 2024 10:24:43 GMT -6

Jul 7, 2024 9:02:40 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Huh? The offense outscoring what the defense gives up is the only model for winning.

And a QB who can't continue to do that is no good right? Because we all know it's on the QB to win games no matter what. That is what you are saying. Whatever the defense gives up, the QB is supposed to compensate for. It's not doable and sustainable.

Jul 7, 2024 9:02:40 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

You can just stop right there. Now where have we ranked in scoring the last 6 seasons and what does that "indicate" about the QB considering the talent we have had around him?

Where have we ranked in scoring? See, it doesn't matter where we are ranked in scoring if the defense is ranked higher in giving up points. Let me say it one more time. It doesn't matter if the team scores 600 points if the Defense give ups 650 it won't be a winning season. Or if you want PDD. It doesn't matter if the QB scores 3.5 PPD if the defense gives up 3.6 PPD.

I have yet to see you explain how all those teams won the Super Bowl with low OPPD.

You can't truly call yourself "peaceful" unless you are capable of great violence. If you are not capable of great violence, you are not peaceful, you are harmless.

Raptorman
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PPD: The Missing Context - Why MN & Cousins Didn't Work... Jul 7, 2024 10:32:24 GMT -6

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Post by Raptorman on Jul 7, 2024 10:32:24 GMT -6

Jul 7, 2024 9:16:21 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

Here is why what year the PPD occurs in matters:


Rk	Year	Tms	PF	Yds	Ply	Y/P	TD	Yds	Pts▼
1	2020	32	12692	183825	32945	5.6	871	32.9	2.2
2	2021	32	12502	186897	34449	5.4	840	31.7	2.05
3	2018	32	11952	180338	32224	5.6	847	31.4	2
4	2019	32	11680	178107	32516	5.5	797	31	1.94
5	2022	32	11860	184332	34136	5.4	750	31.1	1.92
6	2016	32	11661	179402	32734	5.5	786	30.6	1.91
7	2023	32	11842	180382	34331	5.3	754	29.9	1.88
8	2015	32	11680	180560	32973	5.5	842	30.2	1.84
9	2014	32	11565	178249	32779	5.4	807	30.1	1.83
10	2013	32	11985	178421	33302	5.4	804	29	1.81
11	2008	32	11279	167547	31681	5.3	646	28.8	1.8
12	2012	32	11651	177767	32882	5.4	757	29.7	1.79
13	2017	32	11120	171040	32438	5.3	741	28.9	1.78
14	2011	32	11356	177579	32569	5.5	745	29.3	1.74
15	2010	32	11283	172039	32319	5.3	751	28.5	1.74
16	2009	32	10991	171590	32222	5.3	710	28.7	1.72
17	2007	32	11104	166512	32133	5.2	720	28	1.71
18	2002	32	11097	168120	32569	5.2	694	27.8	1.71
19	2004	32	11000	167506	31978	5.2	732	27.8	1.69
20	2006	32	10577	164925	31999	5.2	648	27.6	1.65
21	2005	32	10556	161751	32021	5.1	644	26.9	1.65
22	2003	32	10666	162969	32093	5.1	654	26.8	1.63
23	1998	30	10215	152477	30264	5	658	26.5	1.63
24	2000	31	10254	158435	31231	5.1	634	26.8	1.62
25	2001	31	10024	157520	31043	5.1	635	26.6	1.56
26	1999	31	10324	158108	31557	5	665	25.9	1.55

Scoring just continues to go up and there is a big difference from even 6 years ago. We see some fluctuation like 2017 where there were a few really good defenses keeping scoring down, and 2020 where Covid caused an explosion of offense from pretty much every team. However, for the most part due to rule changes consistently benefitting the offense (the 2018 change to how a QB can be tackled comes to mind), offensive scoring will continue to go up, while playing defense becomes harder and harder. Not debatable, and the numbers don't lie.

Now compare those numbers to what the Vikings defense has given up the last 6 years. Wait, that's right, it's not on the defense it's on the offense right? In 2020, the average was 2.2 and Cousins had 2.44, so why didn't they win? He was above average. Could it have anything to do with the defense giving up 2.67 PPD? According to your standard, no. Because only the OPPD matters to you in winning.

BTW, next time sort them by years. You're trying to make a point that scoring keeps going up but you're sorting by OPPD, not years. The fact is in the past 3 years scoring has gone down from a high in 2020. Nice try.

Rk	Year	Tms	PF	Yds	Ply	Y/P	TD	Yds	Pts▼

7	2023	32	11842	180382	34331	5.3	754	29.9	1.88
5	2022	32	11860	184332	34136	5.4	750	31.1	1.92
2	2021	32	12502	186897	34449	5.4	840	31.7	2.05
1	2020	32	12692	183825	32945	5.6	871	32.9	2.2
4	2019	32	11680	178107	32516	5.5	797	31	1.94
3	2018	32	11952	180338	32224	5.6	847	31.4	2
13	2017	32	11120	171040	32438	5.3	741	28.9	1.78
6	2016	32	11661	179402	32734	5.5	786	30.6	1.91
8	2015	32	11680	180560	32973	5.5	842	30.2	1.84
9	2014	32	11565	178249	32779	5.4	807	30.1	1.83
10	2013	32	11985	178421	33302	5.4	804	29	1.81
12	2012	32	11651	177767	32882	5.4	757	29.7	1.79
14	2011	32	11356	177579	32569	5.5	745	29.3	1.74
15	2010	32	11283	172039	32319	5.3	751	28.5	1.74
16	2009	32	10991	171590	32222	5.3	710	28.7	1.72
11	2008	32	11279	167547	31681	5.3	646	28.8	1.8
17	2007	32	11104	166512	32133	5.2	720	28	1.71
20	2006	32	10577	164925	31999	5.2	648	27.6	1.65
21	2005	32	10556	161751	32021	5.1	644	26.9	1.65
19	2004	32	11000	167506	31978	5.2	732	27.8	1.69
22	2003	32	10666	162969	32093	5.1	654	26.8	1.63
18	2002	32	11097	168120	32569	5.2	694	27.8	1.71
25	2001	31	10024	157520	31043	5.1	635	26.6	1.56
24	2000	31	10254	158435	31231	5.1	634	26.8	1.62
26	1999	31	10324	158108	31557	5	665	25.9	1.55
23	1998	30	10215	152477	30264	5	658	26.5	1.63

Last Edit: Jul 7, 2024 10:35:30 GMT -6 by Raptorman

You can't truly call yourself "peaceful" unless you are capable of great violence. If you are not capable of great violence, you are not peaceful, you are harmless.

whoskmoon
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PPD: The Missing Context - Why MN & Cousins Didn't Work... Jul 7, 2024 16:25:11 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Jul 7, 2024 16:25:11 GMT -6

If your only defense for why the offense has underperformed is that the defense underperformed more than there is no need for further discussion.

You can't even admit that offensive scoring is up over the past 6 years when they account for the past 6 of the past 7 top scoring years and the 7th is 2016. Unbelievable.

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PPD: The Missing Context - Why MN & Cousins Didn't Work... Jul 7, 2024 17:47:09 GMT -6

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Post by Raptorman on Jul 7, 2024 17:47:09 GMT -6

Jul 7, 2024 16:25:11 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

If your only defense for why the offense has underperformed is that the defense underperformed more than there is no need for further discussion.

You can't even admit that offensive scoring is up over the past 6 years when they account for the past 6 of the past 7 top scoring years and the 7th is 2016. Unbelievable.

Really? It's up the last three years? You can't even admit that it's been going down for 3 years.

And if it is up, that makes a defense even more important. But tell us, how many times in the last 6 years did the Vikings outscore the average PPD on offense while giving up more than the average PPD on defense?


2020 Average PPD for the league.        2.2  
2020 Vikings OPPD                       2.44.   
2020 Vikings DPPD                       2.67

So, Cousins sucks. That's your line.

You can't truly call yourself "peaceful" unless you are capable of great violence. If you are not capable of great violence, you are not peaceful, you are harmless.

Funkytown Owner Purple Pain Big Dog Posts: 67,549 Likes: 31,477 Fan Since: 1998 Member is Online	PPD: The Missing Context - Why MN & Cousins Didn't Work... Jul 18, 2024 9:41:38 GMT -6 via mobile Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Funkytown on Jul 18, 2024 9:41:38 GMT -6
	Last Edit: Jul 18, 2024 9:42:17 GMT -6 by Funkytown

Danchat
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PPD: The Missing Context - Why MN & Cousins Didn't Work... Jul 18, 2024 15:39:32 GMT -6

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Post by Danchat on Jul 18, 2024 15:39:32 GMT -6

Kirk Cousins is basically in last on that list for EPA/play? I believe his raw passing numbers are quite good in the playoffs outside of one bad game against SF, but dang. I suspected the advanced numbers would be a bit worse but -.05?

Kind crazy Matt Ryan made it to a Super Bowl with a defense playing that poorly. The Bills would have been to another with Allen if their defense were better. And Mahomes keeps on winning despite his defenses being below average in the playoffs. And what's Phillip Rivers' excuse? They went to the playoffs all the time and never did anything. His defenses were the same by EPA as Brady's.

I haven't been the biggest supporter of EPA, though I'd need to do a refresher on how exactly it is calculated.

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PPD: The Missing Context - Why MN & Cousins Didn't Work... Jul 18, 2024 20:26:19 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Jul 18, 2024 20:26:19 GMT -6

Jul 18, 2024 15:39:32 GMT -6 Danchat said:

Kirk Cousins is basically in last on that list for EPA/play? I believe his raw passing numbers are quite good in the playoffs outside of one bad game against SF, but dang. I suspected the advanced numbers would be a bit worse but -.05?

Kind crazy Matt Ryan made it to a Super Bowl with a defense playing that poorly. The Bills would have been to another with Allen if their defense were better. And Mahomes keeps on winning despite his defenses being below average in the playoffs. And what's Phillip Rivers' excuse? They went to the playoffs all the time and never did anything. His defenses were the same by EPA as Brady's.

I haven't been the biggest supporter of EPA, though I'd need to do a refresher on how exactly it is calculated.

I think he was actually second to last ahead of only Pennington.

He has only started 4 playoff games in his 9 seasons of starting, so the sample size is pretty small. His first two playoff games he did very little good or bad until one throw in OT against the Saints and like you mentioned against SF he was really bad. He followed that up by a really good game until the final drive against a bad Giants team.

It is crazy that N Foles two elite games against the Vikings and Patriots in 2017 had that big of an impact on his EPA.

Purdy was better than his defense which you wouldn't think was true, and points to him being more than just a game manager.

Jackson has been awful in the playoffs.

Its weird because I have been told that Brady was carried to SBs by his defense but his defenses aren't even close to being the best. Meanwhile Mahomes' defenses weren't that much better than Cousins' and somehow he has 15 times the playoff victories.

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PPD: The Missing Context - Why MN & Cousins Didn't Work... Jul 19, 2024 19:07:36 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Jul 19, 2024 19:07:36 GMT -6

Top 5 QBs in EPA W-L
Purdy: 4-2
Kaepernick: 4-2
Nick Foles: 4-2
Matt Stafford: 4-4
Patrick Mahomes: 15-3
Total: 31-11 (win % .738)

Top 5 Defenses in EPA W-L
Lamar Jackson: 2-4
Rich Gannon: 4-3
Donovan McNabb: 9-7
Cam Newton: 3-4
Joe Flacco: 10-6
Total: 27-24 (win % .529)

Obviously defense does play a factor in winning in the playoffs, all five of the QBs with a top 5 defense had well below average EPAs and won more games than they lost. However, all 5 of the top 5 EPA QBs had well below average defenses, and won a much higher percentage of playoff games. So while defense obviously matters, great QB play wins you more games.

Raptorman Hall of Fame Inductee Posts: 18,484 Likes: 8,254 Fan Since: November 6, 1966.	PPD: The Missing Context - Why MN & Cousins Didn't Work... Jul 19, 2024 20:20:22 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Raptorman on Jul 19, 2024 20:20:22 GMT -6 Jul 18, 2024 9:41:38 GMT -6 Funkytown said: I am assuming that this is only for the playoff games. Not the regular season.
	You can't truly call yourself "peaceful" unless you are capable of great violence. If you are not capable of great violence, you are not peaceful, you are harmless.

Danchat Content Creator Posts: 19,010 Likes: 16,576	PPD: The Missing Context - Why MN & Cousins Didn't Work... Jul 20, 2024 22:55:24 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by Danchat on Jul 20, 2024 22:55:24 GMT -6 Jul 19, 2024 20:20:22 GMT -6 Raptorman said: I am assuming that this is only for the playoff games. Not the regular season. Yes, given the chart is titled "Playoff Quarterback EPA".