Kirk, Or A Potential First Round QB in 2024?

With six weeks gone in the 2024 season, it seems more and more likely with each passing week that the Vikes will move on from Kirk in 2024. Could he get a contract extension? Yeah, sure. The big argument FOR an extension is threefold, in my opinion:

First and foremost Kirk is a good QB, and he wants to stay in MN. He's been one of the best QB's, statistically, in Vikings history, he provides stability and durability at the game's most important position, and has said more than once he wants to retire as a Viking. Secondly, if they were to do an extension, the $28.5 million in void years dead money that is scheduled to hit next year if a deal isn't done would presumably be re-worked, lowering that number significantly. And finally, a fair amount of folks seem to think that Justin Jefferson won't sign an extension if the Vikings move on from Kirk. I'm not sure I buy that, but whatever, I'll throw it in for argument sake.

Fine, all points conceded. These are solid arguments to bring Kirk back for a year or two.

HOWEVAH...

There are also reasons to not re-sign him. I've mentioned before, both in here on on Vikings Report, that when a new GM and head coach come in they like to pick 'their' guy, and win or lose, they're going to succeed or fail doing it their way. 

Kirk is 35 going on 36, and multiple reports up to this point are saying he wants a three year deal, and the Vikings don't want to give him one that long. I understand both sides here--Kirk wanting stability and one last payday before he retires, and the Vikings for not wanting to invest a lot of money in a guy that will be close to 40 when the contract is done.

As to that cap hit...one of the things I have loved about Kwesi Odofo-Mensah's first year and a half as Vikes GM is how quickly he is fixing the cap issues he inherited. Even if the Vikings move on from Kirk, and all of the dead money that was spread out over those void years accelerates to next year's cap, the Vikings will still have about $55 mil in cap space entering free agency next year, and $161 million in 2025 (per OTC). Of course, that's before extensions, signing draft picks and free agents, re-doing deals, etc., but that is a hell of a lot better than it was the last 2-3 years, where the Vikings were in the red, and had to re-work deals just to get under the cap.

And finally, whether you like Kirk or can't wait for him to be gone, either way, the Vikings have to be thinking about their next QB. Jaren Hall is a longshot, so let's assume, for the sake of this exercise, the Vikings are going to pick a QB in the first round in the 2024 NFL Draft. Most draft experts rate this draft class as one of the deepest in recent history, and there are multiple names being thrown out as a first round pick:

Caleb Williams, USC
Drake Maye, UNC
Michael Penix, Jr., Wash
J.J. McCarthy, That Team Up North
Bo Nix, Oregon
Shedeur Sanders, Colorado
Jayden Daniels, LSU (maybe, late first or second is what I'm seeing right now)

For this exercise, let's say the Vikings are going to pick a QB in the first round, and where they draft doesn't matter. You have the option to pick any quarterback in this list, or go off-menu if you have a guy you think will be the talk of the draft come April...who are you taking?

And are you keeping Kirk for 1-2 more years or letting him walk?