Danchat's Offseason Guide - 2023
Welcome back to my annual Offseason Guide article, where I whip up a hypothetical Vikings offseason that involves axing Vikings, signing copious amounts of free agents, and attempting to fix issues that have been made by management. The past two years of guides went as follows:
2021: Nuke the roster down to the studs
2022: Re-tool and prepare to compete in 2022/23
I feel it may be redundant to follow up with another “retool” offseason guide, so this year, the goal has changed.
2023: Push the chips in and make an all-out run for a Super Bowl
Seeing how we just went 13-4, as fluky as it was, I will be managing the roster as if the Wilfs told me that I’m fired if we don’t at least get to the Championship game this year. In my opinion, this approach is not precisely what I would do if I were in control, as we’re going to be putting our roster in bad shape for 2024. Nevertheless, let’s see the plan I’ve conjured up!
Currently, we are at -$21.08M. Yikes, let’s rectify that!
Releases / Cuts
ILB Eric Kendricks (saves $9.5M, leaves $1.93M of dead cap)
This move was hinted at when they didn’t restructure his contract last year, but Kendricks’ play really fell off a cliff in 2022 after he had a relatively shaky 2021. He wasn’t a fit in Donatell’s zone-heavy coverage scheme, but his play against the run plummeted in the second half of the season, and it was hard to watch. I don’t see the point of a price reduction, they need to start fresh at the LB position – not just for the future, but also for the defense being good in 2023.
ILB Jordan Hicks (saves $5M, leaves $1.5M of dead cap)
I called this move the worst free agent signing during the 2022 offseason, and I stand by it. Hicks wasn’t a huge liability as he was better than Kendricks against the run, but he’s never been good in coverage and he got worse at it as he’s entered his 30s. He’s a two down linebacker at this point, which is something you can find for cheaper than $5M.
FB C. J. Ham (saves $3.05M, leaves 750K of dead cap)
During training camp / preseason, it was thought that Ham would have a decently sized role on the offense. Instead, he only ended up playing 16-18% of the snaps and he was not a difference-maker as a run blocker. O’Connell will likely transition away from using a FB, and if he does want to use one, he can find one for the veteran minimum. It was a good run, CJ.
G/C Chris Reed (saves $2.5M, leaves $250K of dead cap)
Reed fell out of favor early on as he was a healthy scratch for the first 10 games of the season, as Oli Udoh and Austin Schlottmann were trusted as gameday backups despite their basement-bottom play in 2021. There is no reason to keep Reed, seeing as how we could scavenge $2.5M from his deal.
DT Ross Blacklock / TE Johnny Mundt ($2.83M saved)
Blacklock was just as poor of a player as he was in Houston, but the Vikings struck gold with Khyiris Tonga. By the end of the year, Blacklock was inactive even with Bullard hurt, so there’s no reason to keep him. Mundt had a few highlights via the old “the defense forgot the blocking TE existed” play, but the problem is that he is a very poor blocker. He can be easily replaced.
Restructures
RT Brian O’Neill - $6M bonus, saves $4M in 2023.
More money could be drawn from O’Neill’s deal, but I fear his 2024/2025 cap hits would rise too high. Right now, those two cap hits are now $21.7M and $24.7M. O’Neill is a great player, but that’s a lot of money for a RT.
OLB Za’Darius Smith - $7.5M bonus, saves $5M (added a 2025 void year)
The Vikings could choose to move on from Smith after a Jekyll & Hyde season that saw him dominate the first half and disappear in the second half. However, I deemed it too difficult to find a worthy replacement for an affordable price, so I’ll lock in even further. This may prove to be a mistake as paying pass rushers into their 30s is not a wise idea.
WR Adam Thielen - $2.5M pay cut
I went back and forth on what to do at WR, but the WR market has simply gone too crazy to replace Thielen with the $6.3M savings we’d get from cutting him. Instead, he gets one more year to be a starting receiver. I considered Mecole Hardman but he’d command at least $10M a year, and Nelson Agholor would make less than $6.3M but he stinks and is now 30. Thielen is still a solid redzone weapon at this point in his career.
Extensions
QB Kirk Cousins – 2 years, $80M fully guaranteed. Saves $10M in cap room, cap hits in 2024 and on: $41.25M, $51.25M, $10M (void)
Remember when I said this plan wasn’t “precisely what I’d do”? Well, Kirk’s current cap number is hurting our ability to sign players, and thus it’s time to punt the can down the road yet again. He receives his fourth fully guaranteed deal from the Vikings and screws our 2024 and 2025 cap. His $40M a year matches Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford, which seems fair. Hopefully he doesn’t ask for Wilson/Murray levels of APY ($46-48M).
TE T. J. Hockenson – 5 years, $70M (saves $6.08M of cap space)
Having landed him for swap of 2nd/3rd to two 4ths, it feels as if this move was always part of the plan. Hockenson meshed very well with O’Connell’s plan and he made up for Thielen/Osborn’s shortcomings. He should rightfully ask for at least $15M a year, seeing as how that’s around what George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, and Mark Andrews are making. Saving $6M of cap space is the cherry on top.
WR Justin Jefferson – 5 years, $180M (costs $2.4M extra on cap)
I’m not going to go into depth on the contract, but the Vikings should get this done before it gets more expensive. $36M a year should do the trick, and following the model of Tyreek Hill’s mega deal, his first year cap hit will be bumped up to $6.5M. It won’t get crazy until 2025… well, we’re already in trouble that year too since Kirk’s cap hit is $51M, but my orders were to win now and worry about the future later.
Re-signing our internal free agents
DE/DT Dalvin Tomlinson – 3 years, $37.5M (saves $500K of cap space)
Tomlinson took a step forward in Donatell’s 3-4 system, as he went back to his roots with the Giants playing in a 3 man front. His pressure rate went up, and finding interior pass rushers is a pain. Add in the fact that the Vikings save $5M on a $7.5M void cap hit if they do extend him, and I think this move is a no-brainer. The signing ends up breaking about even.
CB Duke Shelley – 1 year, $3M
It is very hard to accurately predict what Shelley might get on the open market, as he played so well in a small window of time. His fit in Flores’ scheme is undeniable, as his play in man coverage was among the best in the NFL. We need him back, and playing just like he did last year.
QB Nick Mullens – 1 year, vet minimum
Mullens is a slightly below average backup who can function in an NFL offense, but is prone to making dumb mistakes. Once again, we don’t have the money to buy a quality backup, so we’ll go cheap and bring Mullens back, but with some competition soon to be added.
LS Andrew DePaola – 2 years, vet minimum
DePaola made the All-Pro team and was voted to a Pro Bowl. Cool, that’s enough for me to apply the veteran minimum since of looking for a slightly cheaper rookie. Moving on…
Players Being Let Go
C Garrett Bradbury – I can’t do it. Bradbury took a big step forward and looks like he can function as an average center in the NFL, but he’s still a liability in pass protection. That shouldn’t fly in O’Connell’s pass heavy scheme.
CB Patrick Peterson – He’s coming off a quality year, but he’s a mismatch for Flores’ man-heavy system and Peterson’s age regression is going to kick in at some point. It’s better to move on a year early rather than a year too late.
TE Irv Smith Jr. – LOL bye. The NFL is lacking in TEs, and he’ll find a one year deal to start somewhere else.
RB Alexander Mattison – Despite what some fans say, he is not good enough to start on 20 other teams. He also isn’t good enough to start on 10 other teams, probably not even 3. He’s a fine backup who is at most a 1B in a rushing attack. He’ll sign for cheaper than most will expect, seeing how flooded the RB market is.
CB Chandon Sullivan – The Vikings need to end their tradition of employing bad nickel CBs and not keeping a viable backup on the roster. The Packers let him go for a reason and ended up getting the last laugh.
K Greg Joseph – At the bare minimum, I’d like a kicker who can consistently hit extra points. Missing 6 in a season is not acceptable, as is missing 8 kicks in indoor stadiums, 7 of those being at home. We can do better.
DE Jonathan Bullard – He could be brought back at the veteran minimum, but James Lynch already accomplishes the “fine run stuffer, cannot rush the passer to save his life” role.
C Austin Schlottmann – We were force-fed Dakota Dozier re-runs when Schlottmann got into the lineup late in the year, as he was the lowest graded center by PFF’s grades even when factoring in every center who played at least one snap in 2022. In 2021, he was 65th out of 66, with #66 only playing 7 snaps. He is legitimately the worst center in the NFL, and I am sick of handing players jobs just because our coaches were familiar with him.
TE Ben Ellefson – He could return as a veteran minimum signing, but he gets hurt a lot for a guy who plays about 8 snaps a game.
G/T Oli Udoh – Normally I’d say something snarky about Udoh here, but when he played in lieu of O’Neill at his natural position, Udoh looked the part. He should hit the market and look to compete for a RT job, or settle for a swing tackle job. I am satisfied with Brandel as our swing tackle and Lowe developing behind him.
CB Kris Boyd – He’d only be brought back for special teams, but he has enough acclaim that he might sign for $2-3M. I’ll pass, he’s rubbed me the wrong way since he ruined a fake punt in 2021 and chirped at the fans in 2022. He’s also hot trash when he has attempting to play CB, so I’ll pass.
WR Bisi Johnson – He tore up his ACLs in back-to-back years. I’ll let him since elsewhere on a back-end 90 man roster deal.
Trades
Trade RB Dalvin Cook to the Dolphins for a 5th round pick. (saves $7.9M of cap, leaves $6.2M of dead cap)
Much could be debated for the merits of retaining a high-paid running back in O’Connell’s offense, but with how the roster is currently constructed, we need to go cheap at that position. The return is lackluster as I project teams will be looking forward to the free agent market and the draft class, both of which are loaded with talent that can be had for cheap. Why would a team offer a high pick for a RB whose best days are behind him?
Trade OLB D. J. Wonnum to the Broncos for a 6th round pick. (saves $2.74M of cap, leaves $187K of dead cap)
The PFF draft simulator said I could get a 6th for him, which seems expensive for a replacement level player, but perhaps a team sees he notched 8 sacks in 2021 and forks the pick over. Wonnum was practically a starter for the Vikings in 2022, playing about 600 snaps… but his ineffectiveness makes it seem as if he’s on the field far less than he actually is. While his run stopping grades improved to acceptable levels last year, he’s a liability as the top guy behind Hunter and Smith and it showed in the second half of the year. I’d take a conditional 7th rounder for him!
Trade CB Cameron Dantzler to the Commanders for a 6th round pick (saves $2.74M of cap, leaves $223K of dead cap)
This may be a controversial and seemingly counterintuitive seeing how heavily I rely on PFF grades, but I’ve come to the conclusion that Dantzler is not as good as his grades make him look. He was awful in Donatell’s scheme for a variety of reasons, but he was ultimately benched. While he is a better fit for man coverage, I can’t trust a player who fell both into Zimmer’s and Donatell’s doghouses. I have enough candidates to compete for the #2 job (Shelley/Evans/Booth Jr) and I will be filling the other CB spots in free agency, so I find Dantzler to be superfluous.
Cap Space: $34.12M (top 51 contracts)
Free Agent Signings
Sign CB James Bradberry - 3 years, $36M
Go big or go home! If the Vikings pass defense is to be fixed over a single offseason, it’s going to need a move like this. Bradberry is a big CB (6’1” 210 lbs) who is coming off a strong season with the Eagles, and was one of the best CBs graded in man coverage, and can hold his own facing up against quality WRs. It likely ends up only being a 1 or 2 year stay as he’s turning 30 soon, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take to put this team over the top.
Sign ILB David Long – 4 years, $36M
It’s imperative that we find a veteran LB to pair with Asamoah on the open market so we’re not forced to use a high pick on one. Long fits the bill and he’s on the young side (26). He was an important cog on a constantly overachieving Titans defense coming off a career year as a run stopper, and can hold his own in coverage. He’ll be a massive upgrade to Kendricks and Hicks.
Sign C Connor McGovern – 3 years, $21M
With Ed Ingram likely to keep his RG job, a team seriously considering a SB run needs a better iOL than we currently have, and the easiest way to do that is to let Bradbury walk and find an upgrade. McGovern isn’t a substantial upgrade, but he is a consistently stronger pass protector, which is important in our pass-heavy offense. He didn’t quite live up to his $9M APY deal in New York and is 30 now, so I think $7M a year is fair.
Sign CB Tavierre Thomas – 3 years, $15M
Finally, it’s about time we signed a quality slot CB and forget about him (in a good way). Thomas has quietly been one of the highest rated coverage CBs the past two years – not just slot CBs. Even better, he has a very high rating in man coverage, so he’s a great fit for Flores. Best of all, the track record for slot CB contracts on the open market are quite pitiful compared to other positions. No matter whether we are contending or rebuilding, I’d ink this deal in a heartbeat.
Signed RB D’Onta Foreman – 3 years, $10.5M
You may find it odd that I’m spending money on a career backup RB on the market, but Foreman is different to other available RBs. The 27 year old has consistently flown under the radar despite a strong 4.3 YPC, and just ripped off 914 yards in McCaffrey’s stead in Carolina. He’s flat-out one of the best pure runners in the NFL, and only has 443 career carries, so he’s got plenty of tread on his tires. He brings nothing to the table in the passing game, so he fits in as a 1A in the rushing attack, but is still affordable enough to be replaced by a younger back. I find it likely the Panthers retain him, but I can dream.
Sign K Matt Prater – 2 years, $6M
He may be 39, but he was still solid in 2022, hitting 88% of FGs and missed only 1 XP. Injuries may be a concern, but I will take my chances there rather than with a streaky kicker.
NFL Draft
As usual, I need to give a disclaimer here about the draft portion. At the current moment I do not have a great grasp on which prospects will go in which ranges, and I’m relying on the PFF Draft Simulator to inform me.
IMPORTANT: The takeaway should be the positions, not the players themselves. In hindsight, these drafts always look terrible / have players going way too early or late.
Pick 1-23: OLB Nolan Smith
Through free agency, I’ve set things up so that I don’t need to force this pick on any particular position. My eyes are set on edge rusher, as Hunter is in a contract year and I’ve opted not to extend him, while Za’Darius’ play will be declining sooner rather than later. Smith can take the Wonnum role (which is about 55% of the snaps, so it’s rather large) and develop into a starter for the future, or become a full-timer if Hunter/Smith get hurt. Building depth is important, especially at edge rusher.
Pick 3-87: ILB DeMarvion Overshown
I went BPA here, which resulted in what will be our third straight year drafting an ILB in the third round. Overshown has a high ceiling and can sit on the bench Year 1 as a backup plan in case Asamoah doesn’t develop as intended… plus I don’t trust Troy Dye to be the primary backup.
Pick 4-119: WR Andrei Iosivas
I don’t anticipate he’ll be on the board here, but I’d like to keep taking shots on WRs in the 3rd-5th rounds to try and hit a home run with one of them. Iosvias would compete with Nailor and Reagor for reps as the fourth receiver.
Pick 5-152: G/T Connor Galvin
Galvin can be the next project O-lineman who will likely end up at guard after playing LT at Baylor.
Pick 5-160: S Rashad Torrence II
The Vikings have been able to find overachieving safeties in the 4th-7th rounds the past several years, and perhaps Torrence II can be the next in line. With 2023 likely Harrison Smith’s last year on the roster, he could step up into a primary backup job in 2024.
Pick 5-177: TE Will Mallory
The Vikings’ depth at TE is lackluster, so let’s take another crack at it.
Pick 6-198: QB Stetson Bennett
I frankly don’t know most of the prospects left on the board at this point, but I’d like to take a late-round jab at QB just to see if we could find a decent backup. I’m sure O’Connell would like to pick his own guy, rather than having the likes of Kellen Mond foisted onto him.
Pick 6-209: DE Cameron Young
With Bullard and Blacklock gone, there is an opening for a D-lineman, and Young has the measurables that Flores prefers for his DL.
Post-Draft Signings
DE Nathan Shepherd – Coming off a passable year as a rotational D-linemen, perhaps Shepherd could look for a starting job as he would compete with Lynch. He fits Flores’ set of measurables.
WR Deonte Harty – Formerly named Donte Harris, Harty was very efficient as an undersized receiver in 2021 but only managed to play 4 games last year and missed the rest of the year with injury. When healthy, he’s a quality kick and punt returner who is fieldable on offense, which is far more than what we can say about Jalen Reagor.
TE Mo Alie-Cox – I’m expecting him to be released, and he’d be a great grab as a #2 TE. He graded out as a solid blocker and would immediately be an upgrade from Mundt, and is a solid redzone weapon (9 TDs the past 3 years). I don’t know if he could be had this cheap, but you never know when certain players sit around on the market for months at a time.
HB Justin Jackson – He was relegated to the #3 RB job for the Lions last year, but is talented enough to be a backup as he showed with the Chargers. He can also handle himself as a receiver out of the backfield, which compliments Foreman well. He would compete with Chandler for the #2 job.
C Kyle Fuller – He’s been the Seahawks backup center for a few years, and has generally had poor ratings, but not Schlottmann-levels. He’ll have to compete for a roster spot.
Cap Space Remaining: $4.56M
Final Roster
Here's the whole layout of the plan:
* Notes *
I could see in an alternately aggressive plan moving our 1st and/or 3rd round picks for a player on another roster, but I couldn't find any great fits. I looked for CBs and WRs that would make sense to replace Bradberry / Thielen, but didn't find anything I liked.
The 2022 draft class is going to get its chances - 1st rounder Cine is being handed the starting job, as Bynum should not be able to supplant him with how poor he played last year and how he doesn't fit in Flores' scheme very well. I could see Bynum get cross-trained at slot CB to give us some depth there. 2nd/4th rounders Booth Jr/Evans will get snaps when injuries inevitably hit the CB group. 3rd rounder Asamoah is being handed a starting job on a platter, too. Finally, Chandler will be getting plenty of rope at RB, while I don't expect Nwangwu to get the same chances. O'Connell's answer when asked about using Kene on offense last year was pretty clear, they think of him only as a special teams player.
If you're wondering about our 2024 cap situation... well.
The cap is expected to fall in between $249M to $268M, and before all these moves, we have $187.1M committed to the 2024 salary cap. After this article it is now... roughly $266.8M!! Welcome to salary cap purgatory, everyone!
Alright, that's enough from me! I want to hear what you think, are you a fan of going for it with no regard for the future of the team? Did I not go far enough? Let me hear what you think!
2021: Nuke the roster down to the studs
2022: Re-tool and prepare to compete in 2022/23
I feel it may be redundant to follow up with another “retool” offseason guide, so this year, the goal has changed.
2023: Push the chips in and make an all-out run for a Super Bowl
Seeing how we just went 13-4, as fluky as it was, I will be managing the roster as if the Wilfs told me that I’m fired if we don’t at least get to the Championship game this year. In my opinion, this approach is not precisely what I would do if I were in control, as we’re going to be putting our roster in bad shape for 2024. Nevertheless, let’s see the plan I’ve conjured up!
Currently, we are at -$21.08M. Yikes, let’s rectify that!
Releases / Cuts
ILB Eric Kendricks (saves $9.5M, leaves $1.93M of dead cap)
This move was hinted at when they didn’t restructure his contract last year, but Kendricks’ play really fell off a cliff in 2022 after he had a relatively shaky 2021. He wasn’t a fit in Donatell’s zone-heavy coverage scheme, but his play against the run plummeted in the second half of the season, and it was hard to watch. I don’t see the point of a price reduction, they need to start fresh at the LB position – not just for the future, but also for the defense being good in 2023.
ILB Jordan Hicks (saves $5M, leaves $1.5M of dead cap)
I called this move the worst free agent signing during the 2022 offseason, and I stand by it. Hicks wasn’t a huge liability as he was better than Kendricks against the run, but he’s never been good in coverage and he got worse at it as he’s entered his 30s. He’s a two down linebacker at this point, which is something you can find for cheaper than $5M.
FB C. J. Ham (saves $3.05M, leaves 750K of dead cap)
During training camp / preseason, it was thought that Ham would have a decently sized role on the offense. Instead, he only ended up playing 16-18% of the snaps and he was not a difference-maker as a run blocker. O’Connell will likely transition away from using a FB, and if he does want to use one, he can find one for the veteran minimum. It was a good run, CJ.
G/C Chris Reed (saves $2.5M, leaves $250K of dead cap)
Reed fell out of favor early on as he was a healthy scratch for the first 10 games of the season, as Oli Udoh and Austin Schlottmann were trusted as gameday backups despite their basement-bottom play in 2021. There is no reason to keep Reed, seeing as how we could scavenge $2.5M from his deal.
DT Ross Blacklock / TE Johnny Mundt ($2.83M saved)
Blacklock was just as poor of a player as he was in Houston, but the Vikings struck gold with Khyiris Tonga. By the end of the year, Blacklock was inactive even with Bullard hurt, so there’s no reason to keep him. Mundt had a few highlights via the old “the defense forgot the blocking TE existed” play, but the problem is that he is a very poor blocker. He can be easily replaced.
Restructures
RT Brian O’Neill - $6M bonus, saves $4M in 2023.
More money could be drawn from O’Neill’s deal, but I fear his 2024/2025 cap hits would rise too high. Right now, those two cap hits are now $21.7M and $24.7M. O’Neill is a great player, but that’s a lot of money for a RT.
OLB Za’Darius Smith - $7.5M bonus, saves $5M (added a 2025 void year)
The Vikings could choose to move on from Smith after a Jekyll & Hyde season that saw him dominate the first half and disappear in the second half. However, I deemed it too difficult to find a worthy replacement for an affordable price, so I’ll lock in even further. This may prove to be a mistake as paying pass rushers into their 30s is not a wise idea.
WR Adam Thielen - $2.5M pay cut
I went back and forth on what to do at WR, but the WR market has simply gone too crazy to replace Thielen with the $6.3M savings we’d get from cutting him. Instead, he gets one more year to be a starting receiver. I considered Mecole Hardman but he’d command at least $10M a year, and Nelson Agholor would make less than $6.3M but he stinks and is now 30. Thielen is still a solid redzone weapon at this point in his career.
Extensions
QB Kirk Cousins – 2 years, $80M fully guaranteed. Saves $10M in cap room, cap hits in 2024 and on: $41.25M, $51.25M, $10M (void)
Remember when I said this plan wasn’t “precisely what I’d do”? Well, Kirk’s current cap number is hurting our ability to sign players, and thus it’s time to punt the can down the road yet again. He receives his fourth fully guaranteed deal from the Vikings and screws our 2024 and 2025 cap. His $40M a year matches Dak Prescott and Matthew Stafford, which seems fair. Hopefully he doesn’t ask for Wilson/Murray levels of APY ($46-48M).
TE T. J. Hockenson – 5 years, $70M (saves $6.08M of cap space)
Having landed him for swap of 2nd/3rd to two 4ths, it feels as if this move was always part of the plan. Hockenson meshed very well with O’Connell’s plan and he made up for Thielen/Osborn’s shortcomings. He should rightfully ask for at least $15M a year, seeing as how that’s around what George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, and Mark Andrews are making. Saving $6M of cap space is the cherry on top.
WR Justin Jefferson – 5 years, $180M (costs $2.4M extra on cap)
I’m not going to go into depth on the contract, but the Vikings should get this done before it gets more expensive. $36M a year should do the trick, and following the model of Tyreek Hill’s mega deal, his first year cap hit will be bumped up to $6.5M. It won’t get crazy until 2025… well, we’re already in trouble that year too since Kirk’s cap hit is $51M, but my orders were to win now and worry about the future later.
Re-signing our internal free agents
DE/DT Dalvin Tomlinson – 3 years, $37.5M (saves $500K of cap space)
Tomlinson took a step forward in Donatell’s 3-4 system, as he went back to his roots with the Giants playing in a 3 man front. His pressure rate went up, and finding interior pass rushers is a pain. Add in the fact that the Vikings save $5M on a $7.5M void cap hit if they do extend him, and I think this move is a no-brainer. The signing ends up breaking about even.
CB Duke Shelley – 1 year, $3M
It is very hard to accurately predict what Shelley might get on the open market, as he played so well in a small window of time. His fit in Flores’ scheme is undeniable, as his play in man coverage was among the best in the NFL. We need him back, and playing just like he did last year.
QB Nick Mullens – 1 year, vet minimum
Mullens is a slightly below average backup who can function in an NFL offense, but is prone to making dumb mistakes. Once again, we don’t have the money to buy a quality backup, so we’ll go cheap and bring Mullens back, but with some competition soon to be added.
LS Andrew DePaola – 2 years, vet minimum
DePaola made the All-Pro team and was voted to a Pro Bowl. Cool, that’s enough for me to apply the veteran minimum since of looking for a slightly cheaper rookie. Moving on…
Players Being Let Go
C Garrett Bradbury – I can’t do it. Bradbury took a big step forward and looks like he can function as an average center in the NFL, but he’s still a liability in pass protection. That shouldn’t fly in O’Connell’s pass heavy scheme.
CB Patrick Peterson – He’s coming off a quality year, but he’s a mismatch for Flores’ man-heavy system and Peterson’s age regression is going to kick in at some point. It’s better to move on a year early rather than a year too late.
TE Irv Smith Jr. – LOL bye. The NFL is lacking in TEs, and he’ll find a one year deal to start somewhere else.
RB Alexander Mattison – Despite what some fans say, he is not good enough to start on 20 other teams. He also isn’t good enough to start on 10 other teams, probably not even 3. He’s a fine backup who is at most a 1B in a rushing attack. He’ll sign for cheaper than most will expect, seeing how flooded the RB market is.
CB Chandon Sullivan – The Vikings need to end their tradition of employing bad nickel CBs and not keeping a viable backup on the roster. The Packers let him go for a reason and ended up getting the last laugh.
K Greg Joseph – At the bare minimum, I’d like a kicker who can consistently hit extra points. Missing 6 in a season is not acceptable, as is missing 8 kicks in indoor stadiums, 7 of those being at home. We can do better.
DE Jonathan Bullard – He could be brought back at the veteran minimum, but James Lynch already accomplishes the “fine run stuffer, cannot rush the passer to save his life” role.
C Austin Schlottmann – We were force-fed Dakota Dozier re-runs when Schlottmann got into the lineup late in the year, as he was the lowest graded center by PFF’s grades even when factoring in every center who played at least one snap in 2022. In 2021, he was 65th out of 66, with #66 only playing 7 snaps. He is legitimately the worst center in the NFL, and I am sick of handing players jobs just because our coaches were familiar with him.
TE Ben Ellefson – He could return as a veteran minimum signing, but he gets hurt a lot for a guy who plays about 8 snaps a game.
G/T Oli Udoh – Normally I’d say something snarky about Udoh here, but when he played in lieu of O’Neill at his natural position, Udoh looked the part. He should hit the market and look to compete for a RT job, or settle for a swing tackle job. I am satisfied with Brandel as our swing tackle and Lowe developing behind him.
CB Kris Boyd – He’d only be brought back for special teams, but he has enough acclaim that he might sign for $2-3M. I’ll pass, he’s rubbed me the wrong way since he ruined a fake punt in 2021 and chirped at the fans in 2022. He’s also hot trash when he has attempting to play CB, so I’ll pass.
WR Bisi Johnson – He tore up his ACLs in back-to-back years. I’ll let him since elsewhere on a back-end 90 man roster deal.
Trades
Trade RB Dalvin Cook to the Dolphins for a 5th round pick. (saves $7.9M of cap, leaves $6.2M of dead cap)
Much could be debated for the merits of retaining a high-paid running back in O’Connell’s offense, but with how the roster is currently constructed, we need to go cheap at that position. The return is lackluster as I project teams will be looking forward to the free agent market and the draft class, both of which are loaded with talent that can be had for cheap. Why would a team offer a high pick for a RB whose best days are behind him?
Trade OLB D. J. Wonnum to the Broncos for a 6th round pick. (saves $2.74M of cap, leaves $187K of dead cap)
The PFF draft simulator said I could get a 6th for him, which seems expensive for a replacement level player, but perhaps a team sees he notched 8 sacks in 2021 and forks the pick over. Wonnum was practically a starter for the Vikings in 2022, playing about 600 snaps… but his ineffectiveness makes it seem as if he’s on the field far less than he actually is. While his run stopping grades improved to acceptable levels last year, he’s a liability as the top guy behind Hunter and Smith and it showed in the second half of the year. I’d take a conditional 7th rounder for him!
Trade CB Cameron Dantzler to the Commanders for a 6th round pick (saves $2.74M of cap, leaves $223K of dead cap)
This may be a controversial and seemingly counterintuitive seeing how heavily I rely on PFF grades, but I’ve come to the conclusion that Dantzler is not as good as his grades make him look. He was awful in Donatell’s scheme for a variety of reasons, but he was ultimately benched. While he is a better fit for man coverage, I can’t trust a player who fell both into Zimmer’s and Donatell’s doghouses. I have enough candidates to compete for the #2 job (Shelley/Evans/Booth Jr) and I will be filling the other CB spots in free agency, so I find Dantzler to be superfluous.
Cap Space: $34.12M (top 51 contracts)
Free Agent Signings
Sign CB James Bradberry - 3 years, $36M
Go big or go home! If the Vikings pass defense is to be fixed over a single offseason, it’s going to need a move like this. Bradberry is a big CB (6’1” 210 lbs) who is coming off a strong season with the Eagles, and was one of the best CBs graded in man coverage, and can hold his own facing up against quality WRs. It likely ends up only being a 1 or 2 year stay as he’s turning 30 soon, but it’s a risk I’m willing to take to put this team over the top.
Sign ILB David Long – 4 years, $36M
It’s imperative that we find a veteran LB to pair with Asamoah on the open market so we’re not forced to use a high pick on one. Long fits the bill and he’s on the young side (26). He was an important cog on a constantly overachieving Titans defense coming off a career year as a run stopper, and can hold his own in coverage. He’ll be a massive upgrade to Kendricks and Hicks.
Sign C Connor McGovern – 3 years, $21M
With Ed Ingram likely to keep his RG job, a team seriously considering a SB run needs a better iOL than we currently have, and the easiest way to do that is to let Bradbury walk and find an upgrade. McGovern isn’t a substantial upgrade, but he is a consistently stronger pass protector, which is important in our pass-heavy offense. He didn’t quite live up to his $9M APY deal in New York and is 30 now, so I think $7M a year is fair.
Sign CB Tavierre Thomas – 3 years, $15M
Finally, it’s about time we signed a quality slot CB and forget about him (in a good way). Thomas has quietly been one of the highest rated coverage CBs the past two years – not just slot CBs. Even better, he has a very high rating in man coverage, so he’s a great fit for Flores. Best of all, the track record for slot CB contracts on the open market are quite pitiful compared to other positions. No matter whether we are contending or rebuilding, I’d ink this deal in a heartbeat.
Signed RB D’Onta Foreman – 3 years, $10.5M
You may find it odd that I’m spending money on a career backup RB on the market, but Foreman is different to other available RBs. The 27 year old has consistently flown under the radar despite a strong 4.3 YPC, and just ripped off 914 yards in McCaffrey’s stead in Carolina. He’s flat-out one of the best pure runners in the NFL, and only has 443 career carries, so he’s got plenty of tread on his tires. He brings nothing to the table in the passing game, so he fits in as a 1A in the rushing attack, but is still affordable enough to be replaced by a younger back. I find it likely the Panthers retain him, but I can dream.
Sign K Matt Prater – 2 years, $6M
He may be 39, but he was still solid in 2022, hitting 88% of FGs and missed only 1 XP. Injuries may be a concern, but I will take my chances there rather than with a streaky kicker.
NFL Draft
As usual, I need to give a disclaimer here about the draft portion. At the current moment I do not have a great grasp on which prospects will go in which ranges, and I’m relying on the PFF Draft Simulator to inform me.
IMPORTANT: The takeaway should be the positions, not the players themselves. In hindsight, these drafts always look terrible / have players going way too early or late.
Pick 1-23: OLB Nolan Smith
Through free agency, I’ve set things up so that I don’t need to force this pick on any particular position. My eyes are set on edge rusher, as Hunter is in a contract year and I’ve opted not to extend him, while Za’Darius’ play will be declining sooner rather than later. Smith can take the Wonnum role (which is about 55% of the snaps, so it’s rather large) and develop into a starter for the future, or become a full-timer if Hunter/Smith get hurt. Building depth is important, especially at edge rusher.
Pick 3-87: ILB DeMarvion Overshown
I went BPA here, which resulted in what will be our third straight year drafting an ILB in the third round. Overshown has a high ceiling and can sit on the bench Year 1 as a backup plan in case Asamoah doesn’t develop as intended… plus I don’t trust Troy Dye to be the primary backup.
Pick 4-119: WR Andrei Iosivas
I don’t anticipate he’ll be on the board here, but I’d like to keep taking shots on WRs in the 3rd-5th rounds to try and hit a home run with one of them. Iosvias would compete with Nailor and Reagor for reps as the fourth receiver.
Pick 5-152: G/T Connor Galvin
Galvin can be the next project O-lineman who will likely end up at guard after playing LT at Baylor.
Pick 5-160: S Rashad Torrence II
The Vikings have been able to find overachieving safeties in the 4th-7th rounds the past several years, and perhaps Torrence II can be the next in line. With 2023 likely Harrison Smith’s last year on the roster, he could step up into a primary backup job in 2024.
Pick 5-177: TE Will Mallory
The Vikings’ depth at TE is lackluster, so let’s take another crack at it.
Pick 6-198: QB Stetson Bennett
I frankly don’t know most of the prospects left on the board at this point, but I’d like to take a late-round jab at QB just to see if we could find a decent backup. I’m sure O’Connell would like to pick his own guy, rather than having the likes of Kellen Mond foisted onto him.
Pick 6-209: DE Cameron Young
With Bullard and Blacklock gone, there is an opening for a D-lineman, and Young has the measurables that Flores prefers for his DL.
Post-Draft Signings
DE Nathan Shepherd – Coming off a passable year as a rotational D-linemen, perhaps Shepherd could look for a starting job as he would compete with Lynch. He fits Flores’ set of measurables.
WR Deonte Harty – Formerly named Donte Harris, Harty was very efficient as an undersized receiver in 2021 but only managed to play 4 games last year and missed the rest of the year with injury. When healthy, he’s a quality kick and punt returner who is fieldable on offense, which is far more than what we can say about Jalen Reagor.
TE Mo Alie-Cox – I’m expecting him to be released, and he’d be a great grab as a #2 TE. He graded out as a solid blocker and would immediately be an upgrade from Mundt, and is a solid redzone weapon (9 TDs the past 3 years). I don’t know if he could be had this cheap, but you never know when certain players sit around on the market for months at a time.
HB Justin Jackson – He was relegated to the #3 RB job for the Lions last year, but is talented enough to be a backup as he showed with the Chargers. He can also handle himself as a receiver out of the backfield, which compliments Foreman well. He would compete with Chandler for the #2 job.
C Kyle Fuller – He’s been the Seahawks backup center for a few years, and has generally had poor ratings, but not Schlottmann-levels. He’ll have to compete for a roster spot.
Cap Space Remaining: $4.56M
Final Roster
Here's the whole layout of the plan:
* Notes *
I could see in an alternately aggressive plan moving our 1st and/or 3rd round picks for a player on another roster, but I couldn't find any great fits. I looked for CBs and WRs that would make sense to replace Bradberry / Thielen, but didn't find anything I liked.
The 2022 draft class is going to get its chances - 1st rounder Cine is being handed the starting job, as Bynum should not be able to supplant him with how poor he played last year and how he doesn't fit in Flores' scheme very well. I could see Bynum get cross-trained at slot CB to give us some depth there. 2nd/4th rounders Booth Jr/Evans will get snaps when injuries inevitably hit the CB group. 3rd rounder Asamoah is being handed a starting job on a platter, too. Finally, Chandler will be getting plenty of rope at RB, while I don't expect Nwangwu to get the same chances. O'Connell's answer when asked about using Kene on offense last year was pretty clear, they think of him only as a special teams player.
If you're wondering about our 2024 cap situation... well.
The cap is expected to fall in between $249M to $268M, and before all these moves, we have $187.1M committed to the 2024 salary cap. After this article it is now... roughly $266.8M!! Welcome to salary cap purgatory, everyone!Alright, that's enough from me! I want to hear what you think, are you a fan of going for it with no regard for the future of the team? Did I not go far enough? Let me hear what you think!
... and neither is this Chris guy.