[OC] Danchat's Guide to the Offseason 2021
Welcome one and all to my sixth annual Guide to the Offseason Article! In previous years in this article, I’ve stated my plans on how I would make the Vikings a Super Bowl contender. Every year I projected aggressive free agent signings and pushed for spending the big bucks to re-sign key free agents while pressing up against the salary cap. This year will be different, however. It is time…
TO BLOW IT UP!!!!
This is the first time I’ll be blowing up the roster in any of my offseason guides, so we’re going to go all the way here. This is going to be a full rebuild – this roster is getting blown down to the studs! The goal will be to move veteran players off the roster and only retain players who will be useful to contend in the future. I’m going to make no attempts to field a competitive roster in 2021. This will be written under the assumption that Spielman and Zimmer would be fired and a brand new coaching staff would be installed.
We are currently projected to have a $181M salary cap, which turns out to be $185.4M with the cap leftovers from 2020. That puts us at -$8.2M, which is less than ideal. Once I’m done with this roster, there will be room, trust me!
Current Roster Setup:
Releases / Cuts
TE Kyle Rudolph (saves $5.1M, leaves $4.3M of dead cap)
The Rudolph extension was a puzzling one from Day 1, as Irv Smith Jr. was drafted to be his replacement. Making him as the 6th highest paid TE in the league was even more puzzling. Cousins didn’t target Rudolph close to as much as previous Viking QBs had before, and that trend didn’t change in 2019 or 2020. Smith Jr. outplayed him, and even Tyler Conklin made more of an impact once Rudy got hurt. There is no reason to retain Rudolph with the two aforementioned TEs still on their rookie deals. This was a blatant waste of money from the get-go.
DT Shamar Stephen (Saves $3.75M, leaves $1.33M of dead cap)
Another baffling move from the 2019 offseason, Stephen was brought back into the Vikings’ system after spending a year in Seattle and was handed the 3 technique job despite not being able to rush the passer whatsoever. To nobody’s surprise, he flunked hard, and was then given the nose tackle job in 2020. He wasn’t a horrible run stuffer, but he was still below-average and also brought zero pass rushing ability. Stephen is a backup NT at best and certainly doesn’t deserve being paid over $5M in 2021.
K Dan Bailey (Saves $1.7M, leaves $2.1M of dead cap)
Right when the Vikings thought they had fixed Bailey following a very strong 2019 season, he immediately reversed back to his 2017/18 self and began to melt down. Even after he was spared the chopping block following the atrocious Tampa game, he still faltered more down the stretch. This team handles special teams terribly, and at this point I don’t know what they can do to fix their curious ailment. The one move I can recommend strongly is cutting Bailey ASAP.
P Britton Colquitt (Saves $1.78M, leaves $1.4M of dead cap)
With the rest of the special teams units self-destructing, Colquitt had a very poor season that went under-the-radar. While the net punt yardage was bad because mostly because of the punt coverage, Colquitt finished in the lower half for punting distance and also gave too many chances for returns. PFF ranked him as the 2nd worst punter in 2020. There is no need for a mediocre punter who’s turning 36 on my rebuild.
G Dru Samia (Saves $665K, leaves $368K of dead cap)
He will likely be a cut at the end of the 2021 preseason, but I’d prefer to get his contract off the books now. Samia’s play at right guard was simply abysmal. In 4 starts he gave up as many sacks and hits (3 and 4) as RT O’Neill did on the whole year, plus another 14 pressures. He even drew 4 penalties in the Seattle game. Spielman traded up for this guy in the 4th round of the 2019 draft… yikes, 2019 was full of bad decisions.
DE Jalyn Holmes (Saves $920K, leaves $183K of dead cap)
Holmes went from likely not making the team to becoming a starting DE once Ngakoue was traded, and he flopped really hard. Providing zero sacks and suboptimal run defense, Holmes is a practice squad-caliber player. Like Samia, he’s another failed 4th round pick.
Current cap room: $5.72M
Re-signing Our Free Agents
DE Ifeadi Odenigbo (RFA) – 2nd round tender of $3.38M
It was a weird year for Ifeadi, as he went from the likely #2 DE to Hunter, to #3 upon the Ngakoue trade, and then rose to #1 after Hunter’s injury and Ngakoue’s trade. He completely failed to live up to his 7 sack 2019 season, only posting 3.5, but he was still providing pressures at a decent rate. He’s with $3.38M as a part-time rotational rusher, and I think his numbers will improve with Hunter’s return, along with the removal of deadbeat D-linemen who did nothing to assist him.
C Brett Jones – 1 year, $1M
Constantly being shoved between the active roster and the practice squad, Jones managed to start 2 games at RG and wasn’t terrible. He’s a fine backup center/guard who should sign at the veteran minimum.
Players Being Let Go
Usually I re-sign many players, but since I’m committing to the rebuild and there aren’t many key players leaving in free agency, I see little reason to retain these guys. My rationale on them:
FS Anthony Harris
He was expected to leave in free agency in 2020, but the Vikings surprisingly franchise-tagged him. This move didn’t pan out, as he regressed into an above average safety after having elite 2018 and 2019 seasons. Harris cost himself some money by having a decent year, and he’ll be turning 30 already. It’s a disappointing end for a former UDFA who came out of nowhere and became the NFL’s best free safety for a little while.
OLB Eric Wilson
Wilson got to be a full-time starter for the first time in his career when Barr went down, and he did well. He proved to be a playmaker, providing 3 picks, 3 sacks, 1 FF, and 122 combined tackles. He’s a speedy LB who was able to hang with many HBs/TEs in coverage. However, he’s a fairly big liability in the run stopping department, and his small frame is not build to go up against linemen. This firmly puts him in a coverage LB niche, which is a role that will get him paid, but it’s not one I’m looking to fill. He’s not a true replacement to Barr, but if used right he will be a nice weapon for someone else’s defense to use.
OLB Todd Davis
Freshly cut from Denver after 4 years of starting as an interior LB, Davis landed with the Vikings and started 6 games. He was an average run stopper, which is something this team lacks, but he’s also a very poor cover guy. He was available for a minimum deal for this reason, and a 29 year old run-stopping only LB isn’t much of a commodity these days.
T Rashod Hill
Hill only ended up starting Week 17 due to Reiff catching COVID, but whenever he checked into the lineup, he played well. He’s seemingly come a ways since he bungled the RT job at the start of the 2018 season. He hit free agency last year and received little attention, but perhaps he’ll get more bites this offseason.
G Dakota Dozier
The Vikings couldn’t get rid of Dozier quickly enough. He was terrible week in and out, ranking as PFF’s worst guard (who played enough snaps, else Samia would have won that title). He gave up a whopping 46 pressures, 6 sacks, 9 QB hits, and 9 penalties. How much longer can the Vikings ignore the guard situation?!
HB Ameer Abdullah
A middling 3rd down HB, Abdullah was the primary kick returner once Osborn got benched, and took 15 kicks for a paltry 23.5 average return. He’ll be turning 28, and his roster spot could be well-used elsewhere on this roster.
QB Sean Mannion
He’s one of the worst backup QBs in the NFL and provides virtually no upside. Next!
MLB Hardy Nickerson
The former Bengal LB was a waiver wire pickup and ended up catching a lucky interception and even generated 2 forced fumbles (1 on special teams). He’s not worth rostering again.
SS George Iloka
Replacing Harrison Smith in the 2nd half of the Houston game due to Harry’s mid-game suspension, Iloka was torn apart by DeShaun Watson and gave up tons of yardage in coverage. He wasn’t rostered in 2019, and we found out why. He even tore his ACL in a practice mid-season. Iloka was clearly past his prime, but Zimmer can’t resist rostering mediocre veterans that played in his system before.
DT Jaleel Johnson
I liked the selection of Johnson in the 4th round of the 2017 draft, but his best play came in the preseason. He was plugged into the 3 technique job in 2020 and graded out as PFF’s worst starting DL in the entire NFL. He provided no pass rush and was consistently pushed back in run support. He’ll be probably be a practice squadee at best. Yet another wasted 4th round pick.
HB Mike Boone (RFA)
Boone has looked great whenever he’s gotten the chance to touch the ball, but those opportunities come very rarely. He’s averaged 5.3 YPC and is a dynamic threat as a receiver, too. He even ran for 148 yards on Chicago’s defense with the Vikings’ backup offense in (he did also have a bad fumble and caused an interception). With Cook extended and Mattison drafted, I can’t justify bringing Boone back. I hope another team will use him properly.
WR Chad Beebe (RFA)
The Vikings’ starting slot receiver, Beebe was given a small role (314 snaps) and flopped. He produced a 20/201/2 line, which was mostly buoyed by a big game against Carolina’s horrendous secondary (7/63/1). He has a hard time getting open and did a poor job of adding yards after the catch. He’s also a terrible punt returner, with 5 fumbles through 17 games from 2019-20. Beebe isn’t a rosterable player, but I guess the Vikings just fell in love with his 2018 preseason tape.
Trades
Vikings send QB Kirk Cousins to the 49ers for their 2nd and 4th round picks.
It’s happening! There was a rumor floating around that this was San Fran’s asking price for Cousins, and I’d pounce all over it. Cousins is a fine, above average QB, but he was one of the primary reasons why this team started 1-5 and it became clear that he need to heavily rely on the running game to get him to play better. Owed $76M over 2021-22, he’s simply not worth that gargantuan amount, and it would be great to save $56M of that by trading him. This move leaves $20M of dead cap, but frees up $11M this year and a whopping $45M next year.
Kirk can reunite with Kyle Shanahan and provide something that Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t bring – durability. They’ll pay him $21M in 2021 and $35M (100% guaranteed) in 2022.
Vikings send OLB Anthony Barr to the Broncos for their 6th round pick (designated as a post June 1st trade)
The Vikings owe Barr a ridiculous $15M in 2021 despite mainly being used as a run-stuffing OLB, plus he’s coming off a major injury. With this roster under new management, I can salvage $12.5M of cap space from his deal and take a $2.6M hit this year and a $5.2M hit next year as penalties. Meanwhile the Broncos can take him on for a more affordable $12.3M and work on moving him to a pass rushing OLB, with Von Miller likely to be suspended/cut.
Vikings send LT Riley Reiff to the Chargers for their 5th round pick
Reiff had a strong 2020, but he’s got one year left under contract and we aren’t looking to win in 2021. The Chargers’ LT situation was a disaster and they probably should have tried to trade for a LT, so perhaps they could acquire Reiff for a cheap price, though they’ll have to take on his $11.75M salary. The Vikings only lose $2.2M of dead cap to make this move, so it’s a no-brainer in this scenario. Usually a LT like him would command more, the Vikings could have moved Reiff at multiple points in 2020, but found no takers.
Vikings send SS Harrison Smith to the Browns for the 4th round pick and SS Sheldrick Redwine
With one year left on Smith’s deal, it’s likely he’s either extended or traded. Since I’m going the way of the rebuild, this means I must sadly trade one of my favorite players and cash in that $10.25M of his salary. Smith should command a light return, and here I have the Vikings getting a 3rd year safety who hasn’t gotten a chance to play much in Cleveland since being drafted in the 4th round.
Cap Room: $46.21M
And just like that, the roster has been gutted and we have money to spend! I will going after younger players that have upside for the future, but they will have some obvious red flags. There are so many holes in this roster that it will be impossible to plug them all.
Free Agency
Sign LG Matt Feiler to a 4 year, $46M deal
It goes without saying the Vikings need to find guard help, and I’ll willing to make my only big move to fill this spot on the line. PFF on Feiler: “Feiler spent 2019 at right tackle and produced the fifth-best pass-block grade at that alignment then kicked to left guard for 2020 where he ranked 12th in pass-block grade.” He should be a massive upgrade in pass protection and will be a building block for the offense in this new rebuild.
Here is how I would structure the deal:
Sign CB Mike Hilton to a 3 year, $13M
Poaching another player off the Steelers’ roster, Hilton probably deserves more money than this, but nickel CBs inexplicably make tiny salaries compared to their peers. Hilton is a decent coverage corner, but specializes in rushing the passer and making plays. Over his four years as a nickel, he’s amassed 7 picks, 9.5 sacks, 23 QB hits, and 30 TFL (tackles for loss). The Vikings could use a veteran CB to complement Dantzler and Gladney, and Hilton would be a great fit.
Sign FS Malik Hooker to a 1 year, $5M (with incentives)
The Vikings need to add a high-upside option at safety, and Hooker has the potential to be that. He’s missed 28 games in the past 4 seasons, and he tore his Achilles’ tendon against the Vikings in Week 2. That sets him up for a one year deal that could lead to a bigger deal if he can prove himself. Hooker is a top-tier tackler and can cover receivers deep, so if he can take the field he’ll likely be worth his salary and then some.
Sign QB C. J. Beathard to a 2 year, $5M deal
I heavily considered signing Ryan Fitzpatrick, but that move would make a lot more sense if I were trying to make the playoffs in 2021. Since I’m not, I’ll go with a younger arm who played well for a short stretch in 2020. Beathard replaced Nick Mullens for the 49ers and had a 787/6/0 line in 2 starts, defeating the Cardinals and nearly upsetting the Seahawks. However, his play in 2017-18 was quite bad and he takes too many sacks, and consequently fumbled a lot. Still, he’s got a decent arm and can scramble around a bit, and he’s got more upside than many other backup candidates like Mannion.
Sign WR Alex Erickson to a 2 year, $4.5M deal
It’s time for the Vikings to improve their special teams. Erickson was one of the NFL’s better punt returners in 2020, with a high 10.1 yards per return. He’s capable of kick returns too. He’s a mediocre receiver, but he at least put up a 43/529/0 line in 6 starts in 2019, so he’s not as terrible as the Vikings’ backup WR options in 2020.
Sign OLB Alex Anzalone to a 1 year, $3M deal
With both Barr and Wilson hitting the road, I’ll need a placeholder to put next to Kendricks until I can find a true replacement. Anzalone is another injury-prone player who has potential, but the Saints never quite tapped into his full capabilities (in my opinion). He’s always been a quality coverage backer, but has never been an impact player in the run stopping department – he’s basically a cheaper Eric Wilson.
Sign DE/DT DeMarcus Walker to a 1 year, $2.5M deal
The Vikings badly need a 3 technique DT, but their options are limited and expensive. Instead, I’ll offer a cheap deal to Walker, a former second round pick who never broke out as a starter for the Broncos. He played 3-4 DE, but at 6’4” 280 lbs he could transition to DT without too many problems. He mustered 8.5 sacks the past two years playing in a rotation, and perhaps he could prove to be a decent interior pass rusher. He’s not going to be a long term solution, but perhaps he can stick as a key rotational piece.
Sign K Eddy Pineiro to a 1 year, $850K deal
Pineiro had a decent season as the Bears’ kicker in 2019, hitting 23/28 FGs and 27/29 XPs. He was expected to get the job back in 2020, but suffered a groin injury and he spent the whole year on the IR. Veteran Cairo Santos usurped him and had a fantastic season, making Pineiro expendable. I will bring in at least one more kicker to compete with him, but as long as he’s healthy (he also missed 2018 due to an injury), I will be somewhat comfortable with him as my kicker.
Cap Room: $18.4M
2021 NFL Draft
As always, it is still very early in the draft process for me. There are a ton of different routes to go here, as I’ve amassed a whopping 16 draft picks, even more than last year’s record of 15 draft picks. At the moment, here’s which kinds of picks I have:
1 of: 1st, 2nd, 7th
2 of: 3rd, 5th
3 of: 6th
5 of: 4th
That’s a lot of 4th rounders. Now, let’s make some moves and spend these draft picks!
Trade! Falcons send pick 1-4 for Vikings’ 1st, 2nd (SF), 4th (SF), 5th (LAC), and a 2022 4th.
Pick 1-4: QB Justin Fields
The Vikings land their QB of the future and their cornerstone to build around. Fields boasts a nearly complete toolset with a strong arm, top-notch athleticism, and high accuracy. He has a ways to go to develop his pocket prescence and learning how to handle blitzes, but in the hands of a great offensive coordinator/head coach, he could be molded into a top tier QB. Getting that guy on a rookie deal will carve a path to Super Bowl contention if everything goes right, and I’ll willing to take that chance.
Pick 3-78: T/G James Hudson
Spending more picks on offensive lineman is a must. Under this plan I would prepare Ezra Cleveland to play LT (or at least, figure out if he can handle it), and I would need someone to take his spot at RG. There currently aren’t many fits at guard who will be available at this point in the draft, so I will take a tackle and see if I can convert him to guard. Hudson fits in with the Vikings’ zone-blocking scheme, so for now he will be the pick.
Trade! Bears send pick 3-83 for Vikings’4th, 5th, and 6th (DEN).
Pick 3-83: DE Patrick Jones II
With QB and the O-line addressed so far, the D-line badly needs reinforcements. Jones is a classic 4-3 DE who is a quality pass rusher and holds his own in the ground game. I’m unsure if he will be available here, but he could slide if 3-4 teams see him as incompatible with their system.
Pick 3-90: LB Dylan Moses
With Barr and Wilson gone, a successor needs to be groomed. Moses is a speedy LB who is a strong tackler, but had an uneven final year at Alabama and needs to develop his ability to anticipate the offense’s plays. He may start out as the 3rd LB.
Pick 4-115: WR Shi Smith
The Vikings could stand to improve their WR room and be able to field 3 WRs more often. Smith is a speedy slot receiver with strong hands who would instantly be a massive upgrade from what Chad Beebe brought.
Pick 4-124: FS Caden Sterns
The roster is rather barren at safety, and taking Sterns would add a prospect who could start in 2022. Sterns profiles as a strong coverage safety usually best left deep down the field, as he struggles with tackling and taking the right angles to tackle ball-carriers.
Pick 4-comp: CB Thomas Graham Jr.
More depth at CB is needed with Hughes’ inability to stay on the field. Graham Jr. picked off 7 passes in 3 years, and is a very strong tackler. His main issue is his lack of speed, which led to QBs picking on him at times. He may be stuck as a nickel CB or could transition to safety.
Pick 5-151: DT Khyiris Tonga
A strong run defender, Tonga was a force in the run-stopping game at BYU and had a nose for the ball. He doesn’t offer a lot in the pass rushing department outside of knocking passes down, but we need a better back to Michael Pierce in case anything happens to him again. Tonga has a very similar skillset to Pierce and could eventually take over his spot as a starting nose tackle.
Pick 6-174: G Tristen Hoge
Taking shots on offensive linemen in the late rounds works for other teams, so perhaps if the Vikings revamped the offensive coaching room, they could start hitting on these picks every once in a while.
Pick 6-comp: TE Nick Eubanks
Eubanks didn’t get used much at Michigan, but was a strong blocker, which is something this roster could use since Smith Jr. and Conklin are receivers first and blockers second.
Pick 7-204: HB Jah-Maine Martin
I’d be taking shots at late round HBs more often since they pan out more than other positions this late in the draft. Martin was productive at a small college, but didn’t get to play in 2020.
UDFAs: K Chris Naggar and P Pressley Harvin III
I’d be willing to shell out some UDFA money for a new punter and competition at kicker. Harvin III was one of the best punters in the nation and could be drafted. Naggar had a decent senior year at SMU but that was his only year as a starter.
Optional Extensions
Extend Danielle Hunter
If Hunter proves to be healthy and 100% for the 2021 season, I would entertain an extension for him. I would also consider a trade if his contract demands are excessive. Here is a potential fix; it may not be accurate to his demands, but I could not find any precedent on a DE who wanted a contract just 2 years into a recent extension.
In this scenario Hunter receives a $12.5M signing bonus up front, $57M is added to the $49.75M left on the current deal, and $43.8M of the deal is now 100% guaranteed (he originally had $0M guaranteed).
Extend Brian O’Neill
O’Neill is primed to hit free agency in 2022, but I’m not going to let that happen. Here is a reasonable deal he could sign:
I think O’Neill will garner more than what James and Collins got on their deals, but he shouldn’t reach the $14M a year that Jack Conklin got from Cleveland. $13.25M a per should suffice.
Notes
Committed Salary in 2022: Originally $180.2M, but now approximately $148M after factoring in new deals and rookie contracts. Also, we’re poised to roll over $7.6M into 2022, which will give us even more room. Assuming the salary cap is $200M or more in 2022, the Vikings will be in position to spend big in the 2022 offseason.
Positions to fix in 2022: 3DT, LB, FS & SS, LT/C? DE?
Why not trade Thielen and Kendricks?
Good question. Thielen is on year 1 of his 4 year extension, and I’d like to keep him as the #2 WR to Jefferson and as a leader for the offense. He’s certainly moveable with only a $5.4M dead hit (0% of his salary is guaranteed, surprisingly), but last I heard over the 2020 trade deadline, only a 2nd round pick was offered for him. There’s plenty of time to trade him if we do want to take that route.
Kendricks, on the other hand, had a restructure and would cost the Vikings $10M to move him. He only counts $12.5M on the cap in 2021, which he is absolutely worth. Linebackers usually don’t get traded and I don’t know if they’d get much of a return for him. I’d prefer to keep Kendricks around for the future, at least through the rest of the 3 years left on his deal.
Depth Chart
Roster Financials:
Any thoughts?
Sources Used:
walterfootball.com/
www.spotrac.com
www.overthecap.com
thedraftnetwork.com/prospect-rankings
www.profootballreference.com
TO BLOW IT UP!!!!
This is the first time I’ll be blowing up the roster in any of my offseason guides, so we’re going to go all the way here. This is going to be a full rebuild – this roster is getting blown down to the studs! The goal will be to move veteran players off the roster and only retain players who will be useful to contend in the future. I’m going to make no attempts to field a competitive roster in 2021. This will be written under the assumption that Spielman and Zimmer would be fired and a brand new coaching staff would be installed.
We are currently projected to have a $181M salary cap, which turns out to be $185.4M with the cap leftovers from 2020. That puts us at -$8.2M, which is less than ideal. Once I’m done with this roster, there will be room, trust me!
Current Roster Setup:
Releases / Cuts
TE Kyle Rudolph (saves $5.1M, leaves $4.3M of dead cap)
The Rudolph extension was a puzzling one from Day 1, as Irv Smith Jr. was drafted to be his replacement. Making him as the 6th highest paid TE in the league was even more puzzling. Cousins didn’t target Rudolph close to as much as previous Viking QBs had before, and that trend didn’t change in 2019 or 2020. Smith Jr. outplayed him, and even Tyler Conklin made more of an impact once Rudy got hurt. There is no reason to retain Rudolph with the two aforementioned TEs still on their rookie deals. This was a blatant waste of money from the get-go.
DT Shamar Stephen (Saves $3.75M, leaves $1.33M of dead cap)
Another baffling move from the 2019 offseason, Stephen was brought back into the Vikings’ system after spending a year in Seattle and was handed the 3 technique job despite not being able to rush the passer whatsoever. To nobody’s surprise, he flunked hard, and was then given the nose tackle job in 2020. He wasn’t a horrible run stuffer, but he was still below-average and also brought zero pass rushing ability. Stephen is a backup NT at best and certainly doesn’t deserve being paid over $5M in 2021.
K Dan Bailey (Saves $1.7M, leaves $2.1M of dead cap)
Right when the Vikings thought they had fixed Bailey following a very strong 2019 season, he immediately reversed back to his 2017/18 self and began to melt down. Even after he was spared the chopping block following the atrocious Tampa game, he still faltered more down the stretch. This team handles special teams terribly, and at this point I don’t know what they can do to fix their curious ailment. The one move I can recommend strongly is cutting Bailey ASAP.
P Britton Colquitt (Saves $1.78M, leaves $1.4M of dead cap)
With the rest of the special teams units self-destructing, Colquitt had a very poor season that went under-the-radar. While the net punt yardage was bad because mostly because of the punt coverage, Colquitt finished in the lower half for punting distance and also gave too many chances for returns. PFF ranked him as the 2nd worst punter in 2020. There is no need for a mediocre punter who’s turning 36 on my rebuild.
G Dru Samia (Saves $665K, leaves $368K of dead cap)
He will likely be a cut at the end of the 2021 preseason, but I’d prefer to get his contract off the books now. Samia’s play at right guard was simply abysmal. In 4 starts he gave up as many sacks and hits (3 and 4) as RT O’Neill did on the whole year, plus another 14 pressures. He even drew 4 penalties in the Seattle game. Spielman traded up for this guy in the 4th round of the 2019 draft… yikes, 2019 was full of bad decisions.
DE Jalyn Holmes (Saves $920K, leaves $183K of dead cap)
Holmes went from likely not making the team to becoming a starting DE once Ngakoue was traded, and he flopped really hard. Providing zero sacks and suboptimal run defense, Holmes is a practice squad-caliber player. Like Samia, he’s another failed 4th round pick.
Current cap room: $5.72M
Re-signing Our Free Agents
DE Ifeadi Odenigbo (RFA) – 2nd round tender of $3.38M
It was a weird year for Ifeadi, as he went from the likely #2 DE to Hunter, to #3 upon the Ngakoue trade, and then rose to #1 after Hunter’s injury and Ngakoue’s trade. He completely failed to live up to his 7 sack 2019 season, only posting 3.5, but he was still providing pressures at a decent rate. He’s with $3.38M as a part-time rotational rusher, and I think his numbers will improve with Hunter’s return, along with the removal of deadbeat D-linemen who did nothing to assist him.
C Brett Jones – 1 year, $1M
Constantly being shoved between the active roster and the practice squad, Jones managed to start 2 games at RG and wasn’t terrible. He’s a fine backup center/guard who should sign at the veteran minimum.
Players Being Let Go
Usually I re-sign many players, but since I’m committing to the rebuild and there aren’t many key players leaving in free agency, I see little reason to retain these guys. My rationale on them:
FS Anthony Harris
He was expected to leave in free agency in 2020, but the Vikings surprisingly franchise-tagged him. This move didn’t pan out, as he regressed into an above average safety after having elite 2018 and 2019 seasons. Harris cost himself some money by having a decent year, and he’ll be turning 30 already. It’s a disappointing end for a former UDFA who came out of nowhere and became the NFL’s best free safety for a little while.
OLB Eric Wilson
Wilson got to be a full-time starter for the first time in his career when Barr went down, and he did well. He proved to be a playmaker, providing 3 picks, 3 sacks, 1 FF, and 122 combined tackles. He’s a speedy LB who was able to hang with many HBs/TEs in coverage. However, he’s a fairly big liability in the run stopping department, and his small frame is not build to go up against linemen. This firmly puts him in a coverage LB niche, which is a role that will get him paid, but it’s not one I’m looking to fill. He’s not a true replacement to Barr, but if used right he will be a nice weapon for someone else’s defense to use.
OLB Todd Davis
Freshly cut from Denver after 4 years of starting as an interior LB, Davis landed with the Vikings and started 6 games. He was an average run stopper, which is something this team lacks, but he’s also a very poor cover guy. He was available for a minimum deal for this reason, and a 29 year old run-stopping only LB isn’t much of a commodity these days.
T Rashod Hill
Hill only ended up starting Week 17 due to Reiff catching COVID, but whenever he checked into the lineup, he played well. He’s seemingly come a ways since he bungled the RT job at the start of the 2018 season. He hit free agency last year and received little attention, but perhaps he’ll get more bites this offseason.
G Dakota Dozier
The Vikings couldn’t get rid of Dozier quickly enough. He was terrible week in and out, ranking as PFF’s worst guard (who played enough snaps, else Samia would have won that title). He gave up a whopping 46 pressures, 6 sacks, 9 QB hits, and 9 penalties. How much longer can the Vikings ignore the guard situation?!
HB Ameer Abdullah
A middling 3rd down HB, Abdullah was the primary kick returner once Osborn got benched, and took 15 kicks for a paltry 23.5 average return. He’ll be turning 28, and his roster spot could be well-used elsewhere on this roster.
QB Sean Mannion
He’s one of the worst backup QBs in the NFL and provides virtually no upside. Next!
MLB Hardy Nickerson
The former Bengal LB was a waiver wire pickup and ended up catching a lucky interception and even generated 2 forced fumbles (1 on special teams). He’s not worth rostering again.
SS George Iloka
Replacing Harrison Smith in the 2nd half of the Houston game due to Harry’s mid-game suspension, Iloka was torn apart by DeShaun Watson and gave up tons of yardage in coverage. He wasn’t rostered in 2019, and we found out why. He even tore his ACL in a practice mid-season. Iloka was clearly past his prime, but Zimmer can’t resist rostering mediocre veterans that played in his system before.
DT Jaleel Johnson
I liked the selection of Johnson in the 4th round of the 2017 draft, but his best play came in the preseason. He was plugged into the 3 technique job in 2020 and graded out as PFF’s worst starting DL in the entire NFL. He provided no pass rush and was consistently pushed back in run support. He’ll be probably be a practice squadee at best. Yet another wasted 4th round pick.
HB Mike Boone (RFA)
Boone has looked great whenever he’s gotten the chance to touch the ball, but those opportunities come very rarely. He’s averaged 5.3 YPC and is a dynamic threat as a receiver, too. He even ran for 148 yards on Chicago’s defense with the Vikings’ backup offense in (he did also have a bad fumble and caused an interception). With Cook extended and Mattison drafted, I can’t justify bringing Boone back. I hope another team will use him properly.
WR Chad Beebe (RFA)
The Vikings’ starting slot receiver, Beebe was given a small role (314 snaps) and flopped. He produced a 20/201/2 line, which was mostly buoyed by a big game against Carolina’s horrendous secondary (7/63/1). He has a hard time getting open and did a poor job of adding yards after the catch. He’s also a terrible punt returner, with 5 fumbles through 17 games from 2019-20. Beebe isn’t a rosterable player, but I guess the Vikings just fell in love with his 2018 preseason tape.
Trades
Vikings send QB Kirk Cousins to the 49ers for their 2nd and 4th round picks.
It’s happening! There was a rumor floating around that this was San Fran’s asking price for Cousins, and I’d pounce all over it. Cousins is a fine, above average QB, but he was one of the primary reasons why this team started 1-5 and it became clear that he need to heavily rely on the running game to get him to play better. Owed $76M over 2021-22, he’s simply not worth that gargantuan amount, and it would be great to save $56M of that by trading him. This move leaves $20M of dead cap, but frees up $11M this year and a whopping $45M next year.
Kirk can reunite with Kyle Shanahan and provide something that Jimmy Garoppolo couldn’t bring – durability. They’ll pay him $21M in 2021 and $35M (100% guaranteed) in 2022.
Vikings send OLB Anthony Barr to the Broncos for their 6th round pick (designated as a post June 1st trade)
The Vikings owe Barr a ridiculous $15M in 2021 despite mainly being used as a run-stuffing OLB, plus he’s coming off a major injury. With this roster under new management, I can salvage $12.5M of cap space from his deal and take a $2.6M hit this year and a $5.2M hit next year as penalties. Meanwhile the Broncos can take him on for a more affordable $12.3M and work on moving him to a pass rushing OLB, with Von Miller likely to be suspended/cut.
Vikings send LT Riley Reiff to the Chargers for their 5th round pick
Reiff had a strong 2020, but he’s got one year left under contract and we aren’t looking to win in 2021. The Chargers’ LT situation was a disaster and they probably should have tried to trade for a LT, so perhaps they could acquire Reiff for a cheap price, though they’ll have to take on his $11.75M salary. The Vikings only lose $2.2M of dead cap to make this move, so it’s a no-brainer in this scenario. Usually a LT like him would command more, the Vikings could have moved Reiff at multiple points in 2020, but found no takers.
Vikings send SS Harrison Smith to the Browns for the 4th round pick and SS Sheldrick Redwine
With one year left on Smith’s deal, it’s likely he’s either extended or traded. Since I’m going the way of the rebuild, this means I must sadly trade one of my favorite players and cash in that $10.25M of his salary. Smith should command a light return, and here I have the Vikings getting a 3rd year safety who hasn’t gotten a chance to play much in Cleveland since being drafted in the 4th round.
Cap Room: $46.21M
And just like that, the roster has been gutted and we have money to spend! I will going after younger players that have upside for the future, but they will have some obvious red flags. There are so many holes in this roster that it will be impossible to plug them all.
Free Agency
Sign LG Matt Feiler to a 4 year, $46M deal
It goes without saying the Vikings need to find guard help, and I’ll willing to make my only big move to fill this spot on the line. PFF on Feiler: “Feiler spent 2019 at right tackle and produced the fifth-best pass-block grade at that alignment then kicked to left guard for 2020 where he ranked 12th in pass-block grade.” He should be a massive upgrade in pass protection and will be a building block for the offense in this new rebuild.
Here is how I would structure the deal:
Sign CB Mike Hilton to a 3 year, $13M
Poaching another player off the Steelers’ roster, Hilton probably deserves more money than this, but nickel CBs inexplicably make tiny salaries compared to their peers. Hilton is a decent coverage corner, but specializes in rushing the passer and making plays. Over his four years as a nickel, he’s amassed 7 picks, 9.5 sacks, 23 QB hits, and 30 TFL (tackles for loss). The Vikings could use a veteran CB to complement Dantzler and Gladney, and Hilton would be a great fit.
Sign FS Malik Hooker to a 1 year, $5M (with incentives)
The Vikings need to add a high-upside option at safety, and Hooker has the potential to be that. He’s missed 28 games in the past 4 seasons, and he tore his Achilles’ tendon against the Vikings in Week 2. That sets him up for a one year deal that could lead to a bigger deal if he can prove himself. Hooker is a top-tier tackler and can cover receivers deep, so if he can take the field he’ll likely be worth his salary and then some.
Sign QB C. J. Beathard to a 2 year, $5M deal
I heavily considered signing Ryan Fitzpatrick, but that move would make a lot more sense if I were trying to make the playoffs in 2021. Since I’m not, I’ll go with a younger arm who played well for a short stretch in 2020. Beathard replaced Nick Mullens for the 49ers and had a 787/6/0 line in 2 starts, defeating the Cardinals and nearly upsetting the Seahawks. However, his play in 2017-18 was quite bad and he takes too many sacks, and consequently fumbled a lot. Still, he’s got a decent arm and can scramble around a bit, and he’s got more upside than many other backup candidates like Mannion.
Sign WR Alex Erickson to a 2 year, $4.5M deal
It’s time for the Vikings to improve their special teams. Erickson was one of the NFL’s better punt returners in 2020, with a high 10.1 yards per return. He’s capable of kick returns too. He’s a mediocre receiver, but he at least put up a 43/529/0 line in 6 starts in 2019, so he’s not as terrible as the Vikings’ backup WR options in 2020.
Sign OLB Alex Anzalone to a 1 year, $3M deal
With both Barr and Wilson hitting the road, I’ll need a placeholder to put next to Kendricks until I can find a true replacement. Anzalone is another injury-prone player who has potential, but the Saints never quite tapped into his full capabilities (in my opinion). He’s always been a quality coverage backer, but has never been an impact player in the run stopping department – he’s basically a cheaper Eric Wilson.
Sign DE/DT DeMarcus Walker to a 1 year, $2.5M deal
The Vikings badly need a 3 technique DT, but their options are limited and expensive. Instead, I’ll offer a cheap deal to Walker, a former second round pick who never broke out as a starter for the Broncos. He played 3-4 DE, but at 6’4” 280 lbs he could transition to DT without too many problems. He mustered 8.5 sacks the past two years playing in a rotation, and perhaps he could prove to be a decent interior pass rusher. He’s not going to be a long term solution, but perhaps he can stick as a key rotational piece.
Sign K Eddy Pineiro to a 1 year, $850K deal
Pineiro had a decent season as the Bears’ kicker in 2019, hitting 23/28 FGs and 27/29 XPs. He was expected to get the job back in 2020, but suffered a groin injury and he spent the whole year on the IR. Veteran Cairo Santos usurped him and had a fantastic season, making Pineiro expendable. I will bring in at least one more kicker to compete with him, but as long as he’s healthy (he also missed 2018 due to an injury), I will be somewhat comfortable with him as my kicker.
Cap Room: $18.4M
2021 NFL Draft
As always, it is still very early in the draft process for me. There are a ton of different routes to go here, as I’ve amassed a whopping 16 draft picks, even more than last year’s record of 15 draft picks. At the moment, here’s which kinds of picks I have:
1 of: 1st, 2nd, 7th
2 of: 3rd, 5th
3 of: 6th
5 of: 4th
That’s a lot of 4th rounders. Now, let’s make some moves and spend these draft picks!
Trade! Falcons send pick 1-4 for Vikings’ 1st, 2nd (SF), 4th (SF), 5th (LAC), and a 2022 4th.
Pick 1-4: QB Justin Fields
The Vikings land their QB of the future and their cornerstone to build around. Fields boasts a nearly complete toolset with a strong arm, top-notch athleticism, and high accuracy. He has a ways to go to develop his pocket prescence and learning how to handle blitzes, but in the hands of a great offensive coordinator/head coach, he could be molded into a top tier QB. Getting that guy on a rookie deal will carve a path to Super Bowl contention if everything goes right, and I’ll willing to take that chance.
Pick 3-78: T/G James Hudson
Spending more picks on offensive lineman is a must. Under this plan I would prepare Ezra Cleveland to play LT (or at least, figure out if he can handle it), and I would need someone to take his spot at RG. There currently aren’t many fits at guard who will be available at this point in the draft, so I will take a tackle and see if I can convert him to guard. Hudson fits in with the Vikings’ zone-blocking scheme, so for now he will be the pick.
Trade! Bears send pick 3-83 for Vikings’4th, 5th, and 6th (DEN).
Pick 3-83: DE Patrick Jones II
With QB and the O-line addressed so far, the D-line badly needs reinforcements. Jones is a classic 4-3 DE who is a quality pass rusher and holds his own in the ground game. I’m unsure if he will be available here, but he could slide if 3-4 teams see him as incompatible with their system.
Pick 3-90: LB Dylan Moses
With Barr and Wilson gone, a successor needs to be groomed. Moses is a speedy LB who is a strong tackler, but had an uneven final year at Alabama and needs to develop his ability to anticipate the offense’s plays. He may start out as the 3rd LB.
Pick 4-115: WR Shi Smith
The Vikings could stand to improve their WR room and be able to field 3 WRs more often. Smith is a speedy slot receiver with strong hands who would instantly be a massive upgrade from what Chad Beebe brought.
Pick 4-124: FS Caden Sterns
The roster is rather barren at safety, and taking Sterns would add a prospect who could start in 2022. Sterns profiles as a strong coverage safety usually best left deep down the field, as he struggles with tackling and taking the right angles to tackle ball-carriers.
Pick 4-comp: CB Thomas Graham Jr.
More depth at CB is needed with Hughes’ inability to stay on the field. Graham Jr. picked off 7 passes in 3 years, and is a very strong tackler. His main issue is his lack of speed, which led to QBs picking on him at times. He may be stuck as a nickel CB or could transition to safety.
Pick 5-151: DT Khyiris Tonga
A strong run defender, Tonga was a force in the run-stopping game at BYU and had a nose for the ball. He doesn’t offer a lot in the pass rushing department outside of knocking passes down, but we need a better back to Michael Pierce in case anything happens to him again. Tonga has a very similar skillset to Pierce and could eventually take over his spot as a starting nose tackle.
Pick 6-174: G Tristen Hoge
Taking shots on offensive linemen in the late rounds works for other teams, so perhaps if the Vikings revamped the offensive coaching room, they could start hitting on these picks every once in a while.
Pick 6-comp: TE Nick Eubanks
Eubanks didn’t get used much at Michigan, but was a strong blocker, which is something this roster could use since Smith Jr. and Conklin are receivers first and blockers second.
Pick 7-204: HB Jah-Maine Martin
I’d be taking shots at late round HBs more often since they pan out more than other positions this late in the draft. Martin was productive at a small college, but didn’t get to play in 2020.
UDFAs: K Chris Naggar and P Pressley Harvin III
I’d be willing to shell out some UDFA money for a new punter and competition at kicker. Harvin III was one of the best punters in the nation and could be drafted. Naggar had a decent senior year at SMU but that was his only year as a starter.
Optional Extensions
Extend Danielle Hunter
If Hunter proves to be healthy and 100% for the 2021 season, I would entertain an extension for him. I would also consider a trade if his contract demands are excessive. Here is a potential fix; it may not be accurate to his demands, but I could not find any precedent on a DE who wanted a contract just 2 years into a recent extension.
In this scenario Hunter receives a $12.5M signing bonus up front, $57M is added to the $49.75M left on the current deal, and $43.8M of the deal is now 100% guaranteed (he originally had $0M guaranteed).
Extend Brian O’Neill
O’Neill is primed to hit free agency in 2022, but I’m not going to let that happen. Here is a reasonable deal he could sign:
I think O’Neill will garner more than what James and Collins got on their deals, but he shouldn’t reach the $14M a year that Jack Conklin got from Cleveland. $13.25M a per should suffice.
Notes
Committed Salary in 2022: Originally $180.2M, but now approximately $148M after factoring in new deals and rookie contracts. Also, we’re poised to roll over $7.6M into 2022, which will give us even more room. Assuming the salary cap is $200M or more in 2022, the Vikings will be in position to spend big in the 2022 offseason.
Positions to fix in 2022: 3DT, LB, FS & SS, LT/C? DE?
Why not trade Thielen and Kendricks?
Good question. Thielen is on year 1 of his 4 year extension, and I’d like to keep him as the #2 WR to Jefferson and as a leader for the offense. He’s certainly moveable with only a $5.4M dead hit (0% of his salary is guaranteed, surprisingly), but last I heard over the 2020 trade deadline, only a 2nd round pick was offered for him. There’s plenty of time to trade him if we do want to take that route.
Kendricks, on the other hand, had a restructure and would cost the Vikings $10M to move him. He only counts $12.5M on the cap in 2021, which he is absolutely worth. Linebackers usually don’t get traded and I don’t know if they’d get much of a return for him. I’d prefer to keep Kendricks around for the future, at least through the rest of the 3 years left on his deal.
Depth Chart
Roster Financials:
Any thoughts?
Sources Used:
walterfootball.com/
www.spotrac.com
www.overthecap.com
thedraftnetwork.com/prospect-rankings
www.profootballreference.com
... and neither is this Chris guy.