Bye Week - Vikings Must Fix ________

As many know, I’ve been critical of the team for a few years now, but with the new regime taking over I think there is a case for optimism. Through seven weeks, that case has been made. Sure, the Vikings are not an elite team statistically - coming into the week they were 17th in Football Outsiders DVOA (14th on offense, 21st on defense) and 13th in PFF’s power rankings, which made them about two points better than the average team on a neutral field. My friend Ben Baldwin’s market-based metric shined a little more on the purple, making them the sixth-best team in the league, about 3.3 points better than the average team on a neutral field. They’ve only covered the closing line in two games so far this year, so if you bet a $100 on them each week you’d be down $240.

With all that said, they are sitting at 5-1, two-and-a-half games ahead of the Green Bay Packers, with a head-to-head victory in their back pocket. As of Sunday night, PFF had them with an 88% chance to make the playoffs and an 82% chance to win the division for the first time in the Kirk Cousins era. We are very likely going to see the Vikings in the postseason, which would put Kevin O’Connell in rarefied air in terms of first-year Vikings coaches. Only Dennis Green, who won the NFC Central in 1992 with an 11-5 record, has made the playoffs as a first-year Vikings coach, and only Jerry Burns, who guided the 1986 team to a 9-7, playoff-less, campaign, has had a winning record in his first stanza at the helm.

However, it’s not either one of those teams that this Vikings squad reminds me of. It’s actually the 2006 team, guided by first-year head coach Brad Childress, that is giving me flashbacks when I think of the 2022 squad. As many remember, the Childress era got off to a rocky start, going 6-10 in year one and 8-8 in year 2, losing the last two games of 2007 with a chance to make the playoffs. What people might forget is that the 2006 squad also got off to a hot start.

The 2006 Vikings were the start of a run of teams that would finish first in the NFL in rushing defense three straight years (and second in 2009), but their pass defense would tie for last in 2006, as their leading sack man (defensive end Darion Scott) had as many sacks (5.5) as Za’Darius Smith has through six games. The Vikings this year don’t have any defensive or special teams touchdowns, while the 2006 team would end the year with seven such plays. Brad Johnson averaged 6.3 yards per pass attempt, and threw almost twice as many interceptions (15) as touchdowns (nine), earning a PFF grade of 58.9. Kirk Cousins has had a down year for him statistically (6.6 yards per pass attempt, five interceptions), but there is almost no chance he plays his way out of the starting job by season’s end the same way Johnson did, or that he’ll be a backup in his next stop like the journeyman.

There was no one on the 2006 team as talented as Justin Jefferson is, although both teams were similarly bad at receiver depth. Marcus Robinson famously led the team in receiving for much of the year, only to be cut by Childress on Christmas Eve, after the team fell out of contention.

Everyone knows how the 2006 story ends. They got blown out at home on Monday Night Football against the Patriots (with Brad Johnson throwing three interceptions - a MNF feat Cousins has already achieved this year), before bad losses to San Francisco, Green Bay and Miami. They would muster only two wins the rest of the year, one against the Cardinals starting rookie Matt Leinart and one in Detroit, because of course. They would finish the year 22nd in PFF Elo, 21st in Football Outsider’s DVOA (which is interestingly where they were after their 4-2 start). They would pick seventh in the 2007 NFL draft, select Adrian Peterson, Sidney Rice and others, and be in the NFC title game just a few years later.

Is that the destiny for the 2022 squad? I think a few things are working in the Vikings favor relative to the 2006 club. Firstly, the quarterback is much better - while Kirk Cousins is very limited, and appears to be on the decline, he’s not going to turn the ball over as frequently as Brad Johnson did. Secondly, the NFC might be even weaker in 2022 than it was in 2006. Aside from the Eagles, all of the teams considered by many to be in the upper tier of the conference all have major flaws. The 2006 version of the Eagles, the Chicago Bears, were in the Vikings’ division and running away with it, preventing the purple from one avenue to the playoffs. No such juggernaut is in the Vikings’ division this season, so even if they regress some, they are still very likely to make the playoffs and have a home game in it - much like Denny’s 1992 club.

So, as you prepare to watch the second chapter of the 2022 Vikings season; don’t say I didn’t warn you. While it’s unlikely that they will have a collapse like 2006, the similarities and precedent are there. Here’s to more continued luck the rest of the way.