Bye Week - Vikings Must Fix ________

MidwinterViking
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Bye Week - Vikings Must Fix ________ Oct 19, 2022 8:05:48 GMT -6 via mobile lostdonkey, dauntessmallhands, and 1 more like this

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Post by MidwinterViking on Oct 19, 2022 8:05:48 GMT -6

Oct 18, 2022 18:14:50 GMT -6 Krauser said:

Oct 18, 2022 8:56:51 GMT -6 Purple Pain said:

As a result, Cousins has the league’s second lowest overall average depth of target.

A big story in the NFL right now is that average depth of target is way down across the league, likely due to the effect of 2-high safety coverages.

I have two challenges with buying this line of thinking, one theoretical and one practical.

If a defense plays 2 high safties say a QB looks deep and it's not there. For this example I'll say the QB has 30 attempts in the game - then he wants to throw it 30 yards down field, but that's covered because of the deep safety, so the QB checks it down to a RB for 0 air yards instead of 30. On 30 attempts, that reduces his ADOT by 1.0 yards, the safties prevented a deep throw and everything works out. In reality it's more than one throw altered, but this is just the general concept.

My theoretical problem - if there are two deep safties, there should be space for medium depth targets. So the deep bomb would be replaced with a medium depth throws - this still decreases ADOT as outlined. However, those medium depth windows should be there even when the original read isn't deep - meaning there should be an equal opportunity to replace shorter throws with throws into these medium depth windows; these throws would increase the ADOT and are more common than deep shots.

My in practice problem - the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings seem to be relying heavily on this scheme. I'll defer to Krauser's tape watching skills over mine, but I see a lot of plays that make me think "why are the safties way the hell back there?", so I view the Vikings as a poster child of this defensive scheme. However...
1) the Vikings are getting killed by the mid range throws I described in my theoretically problem. And more importantly
2) while playing this defensive scheme. the Vikings have one of the highest Average Depth of Target Allowed: 9.0 yards, 4th highest in the NFL.

If this scheme forced ADOT down, I'd expect the Vikings to be in the bottom hald of the leage in ADOT allowed.

Based on all the above, I'm led to one important conclusion. Krausers great breakdown of this has led me to wonder if I'm wrong about the Vikings defense. I see the Vikings giving up a lot of yards, but relatively few points (few for the number of yards they give up). I've thought this was not sustainable - that sooner or later yards will allow points.
BUT
In the red zone, those two deep safties are not as deep, there's no more field (unless they want to cover the truck tunnels). The coverage automatically tightens up without changing scheme. This would mean the Vikings strategy is: first no long touchdowns, then no short touchdowns. That is a good goal that would explain the points / yards allowed discrepancy; it would also be a somewhat sustainable way to play.

whoskmoon
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Bye Week - Vikings Must Fix ________ Oct 19, 2022 8:30:49 GMT -6

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Post by whoskmoon on Oct 19, 2022 8:30:49 GMT -6

Oct 18, 2022 18:14:50 GMT -6 Krauser said:

Oct 18, 2022 8:56:51 GMT -6 Purple Pain said:

As a result, Cousins has the league’s second lowest overall average depth of target.

A big story in the NFL right now is that average depth of target is way down across the league, likely due to the effect of 2-high safety coverages.

Median aDOT for starters (50%+ dropbacks), by year
2012: 8.8
2013: 8.9
2014: 8.6
2015: 8.9
2016: 9.0
2017: 8.8
2018: 8.7
2019: 8.6
2020: 8.6
2021: 8.2
2022: 7.9

...that's a decrease of about 10% from the 2012-20 baseline.

Number of starting QBs with an aDOT < 7.0 yards, by year:
2012: 1 (Ponder)
2013: 0
2014: 1 (A. Smith)
2015: 1 (Stafford)
2016: 1 (Bradford)
2017: 0
2018: 0
2019: 3 (Brees, Carr, Garoppolo)
2020: 2 (Goff, Brees)
2021: 1 (Goff)
2022: 5 (Herbert, Ryan, Stafford, Cousins, Jones)

...low aDOT QB seasons through 2018 are mostly bad (Stafford in 2015 with Jim Bob Cooter is probably the best of them) reflecting poor QBs and/or bad OL (2016 Vikings). But since 2019, the QBs with low aDOTs mostly have winning records, including a couple of dominant Saints teams and the NFC champion in the 2019 Niners. The 5 QBs this year with low aDOT have a collective W-L record of 20-10 (.667)

The trend if anything is intensifying. This past week might have been the most conservative passing attack in league history.

FIFTEEN quarterbacks had an average depth of target of 6.6 yards or less in week 6, including 5 with aDOT < 5.0:
6.6 Wilson
6.5 Wentz
6.4 Burrow
6.3 Jones, Zappe
6.2 Mahomes
6.1 Mariota
6.0 Cousins
5.9 Herbert
5.7 Ryan
4.7 Hurts, Stafford
4.5 Pickett
4.2 Lawrence
0.5 PJ Walker

...that's half of the QBs who played in week 6, with an aDOT lower than 2012 Christian Ponder, including several (Wilson, Burrow, Mahomes, Stafford, Lawrence) with a reputation for being gunslingers who push the ball downfield.

There is this perception that a high ADOT is somehow always good when the reality is, a top 5 ADOT QB is just as likely to be bad as a bottom 5 ADOT QB. The easiest throws a QB can make are the bombs down the field and the short routes which is why that is typically what you see in most HS football games. Intermediate passes in a bunch of traffic are hard. Deep bombs to WRs streaking down the field are easy to throw, if not complete. So you see backup QBs either throw deep a ton or throw short a ton while good starters generally live in the middle with a few exceptions.

Purple Pain
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Bye Week - Vikings Must Fix ________ Oct 19, 2022 9:32:04 GMT -6 OdinHammer likes this

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Post by Purple Pain on Oct 19, 2022 9:32:04 GMT -6

Seifert: Situational masters? How 5-1 Vikings are thriving and what they still need to fix

What they need to improve
Chunk plays: The Vikings' offense has disappeared for significant stretches of games, most notably going scoreless for a stretch of 35 minutes against the Bears. It also produced 10 three-and-outs against the Dolphins. O'Connell said he plans to spend the bye week pulling apart the reasons, and one he will likely focus on: how hard the offense has had to work to score.

The Vikings' average touchdown drive this season has taken 8.9 plays, fifth highest in the league. The Vikings rank No. 30 in the NFL in rate of 20-plus-yard plays (4.2%), and their explosive differential -- the difference in their own such plays compared to what their defense has allowed -- is minus-20, worst in the league.

It's great when a team can consistently score on long drives. It's also difficult. The Vikings could make it easier on themselves if they find ways to capture bigger chunks rather than grinding it out. Another consequence: It has lead to long field goal attempts. O'Connell has sent Joseph out for five attempts from at least 50 yards, tied for third most in the league.

O'Connell noted that the Vikings have "had some shorter targets that have gone for explosive gains" but acknowledged: "We want to be efficient and explosive. It's one thing we talk about every single week."

Vary rush and coverage plans: The transition to a 3-4 scheme under defensive coordinator Ed Donatell has been relatively predictable. The Vikings want to rely on pass-rushers Za'Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter while protecting their secondary with zone coverage, but that has not always worked as hoped.

Donatell has sent at least one extra rusher on 18.6% of snaps, the eighth-lowest rate in the league. He also has the league's third-highest rate of zone coverage (69.5) and nickel personnel (79.1%), according to ESPN Stats & Information. The Vikings' overall pressure rate (27.5%) ranks in the middle of the league, but when you combine average pressure with the same coverage and personnel for most snaps, smart opponents will find ways to gash you.

As a result, the Vikings' defense is giving up 384.5 yards per game, seventh most in the NFL. Good situational play has helped limit the damage, and the Vikings are tied for the NFL's 11th-best scoring defense (19.7 points per game). But it's fair to expect more variety moving forward.

Develop depth: After retaining the inherited core of this roster, new general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah classified his approach as a "competitive rebuild." In other words, he hoped to field a viable team while also beginning the process of swapping aging veterans for younger players. Of the 28 primary players noted earlier, eight are 30 or older.

Adofo-Mensah has accomplished the first part, but the good health of the Vikings' starters -- combined with injuries and slower development from potential replacements -- has stalled the latter. They have established rookie Ed Ingram as their right guard, but he is one of only three first- or second-year players who are part of the regular rotation on offense or defense.

First-round pick Lewis Cine suffered a season-ending leg fracture, but rookie cornerbacks Andrew Booth Jr. and Akayleb Evans, linebacker Brian Asamoah and possibly receiver Jalen Nailor are candidates for increased playing time. This matters in both the long and short term, unless the Vikings think players such as cornerback Patrick Peterson (32 years old), linebackers Eric Kendricks (30) and Jordan Hicks (30) and receiver Adam Thielen (32) are going to continue playing virtually every snap of every game.

Great read at link above.

Krauser
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Bye Week - Vikings Must Fix ________ Oct 19, 2022 10:41:05 GMT -6 suncoastvike, vikingpwr, and 3 more like this

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Post by Krauser on Oct 19, 2022 10:41:05 GMT -6

Oct 19, 2022 8:30:49 GMT -6 whoskmoon said:

There is this perception that a high ADOT is somehow always good when the reality is, a top 5 ADOT QB is just as likely to be bad as a bottom 5 ADOT QB. The easiest throws a QB can make are the bombs down the field and the short routes which is why that is typically what you see in most HS football games. Intermediate passes in a bunch of traffic are hard. Deep bombs to WRs streaking down the field are easy to throw, if not complete. So you see backup QBs either throw deep a ton or throw short a ton while good starters generally live in the middle with a few exceptions.

This is true to some extent, but the fact is that it was almost unheard of until recently for a competent QB (and offense) to have an ADOT under 7. And now we're seeing more and more short passing, including from some good QBs and successful offenses.

One of the main complaints with Cousins over the years has been his tendency to check down. And that criticism is valid -- even if some of the examples and stats that have been used to demonstrate it were misleading because they reflect other aspects of the scheme like designed short throws in quick game -- Cousins has been too willing to quickly turn down deeper targets, settling for short throws even in situations (like 3rd downs) where the checkdown is very likely to fail.

But this year, I'm not seeing him turning down as many open downfield receivers. Teams are really clamping down on their downfield receivers -- a lot of the downfield throws have been closely contested, and the Vikings receivers have been terrible at contested catches this year. The 3rd down checkdown and punt pattern is still annoying, but it's harder to criticize when there are few better options.

The flip side of the coin of tight coverage is that the Vikings receivers (especially Thielen) seem to be drawing a lot of holding and DPI flags. These penalties are valuable to the success of the offense, but they're invisible on the stat sheet (aside from DPI being part of the calculation for DVOA), even when they lead to important 3rd down conversions or extend drives into scoring range. In the Dolphins game for instance, the deep shot to Thielen on a double move is probably a 41 yard TD if the CB doesn't grab him coming out of the break. Cousins' ADOT goes up about a yard with that one throw if it counts as a play instead of DPI (~30 yard pass, he had 30 attempts for the game), and his passer rating, QBR, etc would also benefit.

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Bye Week - Vikings Must Fix ________ Oct 19, 2022 10:47:10 GMT -6 MidwinterViking and FSUVike like this

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Post by Krauser on Oct 19, 2022 10:47:10 GMT -6

Oct 19, 2022 9:32:04 GMT -6 Purple Pain said:

Vary rush and coverage plans: The transition to a 3-4 scheme under defensive coordinator Ed Donatell has been relatively predictable. The Vikings want to rely on pass-rushers Za'Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter while protecting their secondary with zone coverage, but that has not always worked as hoped.

Donatell has sent at least one extra rusher on 18.6% of snaps, the eighth-lowest rate in the league. He also has the league's third-highest rate of zone coverage (69.5) and nickel personnel (79.1%), according to ESPN Stats & Information. The Vikings' overall pressure rate (27.5%) ranks in the middle of the league, but when you combine average pressure with the same coverage and personnel for most snaps, smart opponents will find ways to gash you.

Playing a lot of zone isn't playing "the same coverage". There are lots of different zone coverages, and the Vikings do different things on the back end. They line up in the same "shell" look pre snap but that's a disguise, they're not always playing cover 2 out of it. Some of the best defenses in the league (Bills, Niners) play zone almost exclusively.

The commitment to nickel personnel makes sense given how teams have lined up against them (mostly in 11 personnel). I thought they'd play dime more often or use some 3 safety looks but that's probably off the table if it was ever going to happen, since Cine's injury. If anything they've been burned a couple of times by sticking with too-heavy personnel (5-1 "penny" looks with one ILB or 3-4 base), getting spread out and having teams target an OLB dropping in coverage.

I do think they could blitz more, especially in 3rd and medium when teams aren't likely to take a deep shot but do need an extra split second to let routes develop. I really like what Evero has done with the Broncos to adapt the Fangio scheme, but he does have the advantage of leaving Surtain on an island with WR1s when he's bringing extra pressure.

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Bye Week - Vikings Must Fix ________ Oct 19, 2022 11:14:11 GMT -6 MidwinterViking and FSUVike like this

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Post by Krauser on Oct 19, 2022 11:14:11 GMT -6

Oct 19, 2022 8:05:48 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

I have two challenges with buying this line of thinking, one theoretical and one practical.

If a defense plays 2 high safties say a QB looks deep and it's not there. For this example I'll say the QB has 30 attempts in the game - then he wants to throw it 30 yards down field, but that's covered because of the deep safety, so the QB checks it down to a RB for 0 air yards instead of 30. On 30 attempts, that reduces his ADOT by 1.0 yards, the safties prevented a deep throw and everything works out. In reality it's more than one throw altered, but this is just the general concept.

My theoretical problem - if there are two deep safties, there should be space for medium depth targets. So the deep bomb would be replaced with a medium depth throws - this still decreases ADOT as outlined. However, those medium depth windows should be there even when the original read isn't deep - meaning there should be an equal opportunity to replace shorter throws with throws into these medium depth windows; these throws would increase the ADOT and are more common than deep shots.

My in practice problem - the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings seem to be relying heavily on this scheme. I'll defer to Krauser's tape watching skills over mine, but I see a lot of plays that make me think "why are the safties way the hell back there?", so I view the Vikings as a poster child of this defensive scheme. However...
1) the Vikings are getting killed by the mid range throws I described in my theoretically problem. And more importantly
2) while playing this defensive scheme. the Vikings have one of the highest Average Depth of Target Allowed: 9.0 yards, 4th highest in the NFL.

If this scheme forced ADOT down, I'd expect the Vikings to be in the bottom hald of the leage in ADOT allowed.

This is a good point.

I agree the Vikings are keeping the safeties too deep. Offenses are hitting 15 yard throws over the LBs and the safeties aren't even on the screen when the receiver makes the catch.

I thought the way the scheme is supposed to work is that the safeties sit a little shallower, more like 15-18 yards off the LOS than 20-25. That makes it easier for them to fill in the box against the run, support in the flats on underneath throws, and take away those intermediate windows. The safeties do have to respect deeper routes and so need to have the speed to turn and run with WRs when they go vertical. That was the theory behind drafting Cine, who's so fast he basically played free safety for Georgia from a depth of 12-15 yards and hardly ever gave up anything over his head.

Because the safeties are dropping so deep (too deep IMO), the holes in the intermediate zones are way too big, and teams are taking advantage. On the plus side, they've given up relatively few deep completions, and the only big shot plays allowed were the busted coverage vs the Eagles (53 yard TD to Quez Watkins) and Mooney's ridiculous catch for 39 yards.

Week by week:

Packers
11.8% medium: 2 for 4 for 40, 0/0
5.9% deep: 0 for 2 for 0, 0/1

Eagles
32.5% medium: 7 for 10 for 120, 0/0
6.5% deep: 1 for 2 for 53, 1/0

Lions
14.6% medium: 3 for 6 for 60, 0/0
17.1% deep: 2 for 7 for 48, 0/1

Saints
35.7% medium: 6 for 10 for 87, 0/0
17.9% deep: 3 for 5 for 85. 0/0

Bears
14.3% medium: 3 for 3 for 46, 0/0
19.0% deep: 1 for 4 for 39, 0/0 (Mooney's ridiculous catch)

Dolphins
38.2% medium: 9 for 13 for 135, 1/2
11.8% deep: 2 for 4 for 44, 0/0

Totals
Medium (10-19 yards)
30 for 46 (65.2%) for 498 yards (10.8 YPA), 1 TD, 2 INTs, passer rating 90.7

Deep (20+ yards)
9 for 24 (37.5%) for 269 yards (11.2 YPA), 1 TD, 2 INTs, passer rating 59.2

Oct 19, 2022 8:05:48 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

In the red zone, those two deep safties are not as deep, there's no more field (unless they want to cover the truck tunnels). The coverage automatically tightens up without changing scheme. This would mean the Vikings strategy is: first no long touchdowns, then no short touchdowns. That is a good goal that would explain the points / yards allowed discrepancy; it would also be a somewhat sustainable way to play.

The problem with that approach so far is that their red zone defense hasn't been good at all. I don't think they've had a stop even to force a FG attempt in the last several games.

From what I can tell, the LBs have been the main culprits in coverage in the red zone. Both of the Dolphins TDs took advantage of LBs -- Kendricks not closing down Gesicki with the first TD and Hicks losing track of him completely on the second.

FSUVike
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Bye Week - Vikings Must Fix ________ Oct 19, 2022 11:50:53 GMT -6 via mobile suncoastvike, andhesloose28, and 2 more like this

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Post by FSUVike on Oct 19, 2022 11:50:53 GMT -6

Couple of things stand out here. 1. Donatell doesn't trust Bynum to player closer to the LOS like most Safeties do in the Fangio system. He's giving him extra space as a cushion for biting on Play Action or misreading an assignment. And he thinks Smith is too slow so he's keeping him back further as well. At least that's my guess.

2. The intermediate is working for opposing Offenses because Hicks is bad in coverage and Kendricks is having one of his worst years in that regard from what my eyes are telling me. Can you imagine if Winatron got his wish granted and Minnesota had 2 hulking ILBs that could consistently stuff the run?

Then again, that might not be a bad idea since Hicks and Kendricks aren't stuffing the run OR stopping the pass.

The Safeties playing so deep is hurting Hicks and Kendricks, to be fair. They appear to be having to cover more ground than ILBs on other Teams using the same scheme. Which is not a good thing to do with old LBs.

On Offense Kevin has to be aggressive with getting Thielen and Osborn going early. Run outside of the Tackles and feed Adam and KJ to start games and Safeties are going to have to start paying them more attention, which should loosen up JJ for more chunk plays.

Does anyone know how often Minnesota's opponents have broken tendency by playing Man instead of Zone? Feels like DCs have been doing that this year against the Vikings but not so much against everyone else. Which wouldn't make much sense since JJ and Adam have been excellent against Man until this year.

Last Edit: Oct 19, 2022 11:51:32 GMT -6 by FSUVike

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Bye Week - Vikings Must Fix ________ Oct 20, 2022 5:41:03 GMT -6 FSUVike likes this

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Post by Deleted on Oct 20, 2022 5:41:03 GMT -6

Oct 19, 2022 11:50:53 GMT -6 FSUVike said:

Does anyone know how often Minnesota's opponents have broken tendency by playing Man instead of Zone? Feels like DCs have been doing that this year against the Vikings but not so much against everyone else.

That is something I think JJ or Adam said earlier in the week, that they are getting different looks from opposing defenses to what they see on film.
I'll have to try and dissect this a little more.

MidwinterViking
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Bye Week - Vikings Must Fix ________ Oct 20, 2022 7:25:48 GMT -6 via mobile diehardtwinsfan and dauntessmallhands like this

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Post by MidwinterViking on Oct 20, 2022 7:25:48 GMT -6

Oct 19, 2022 11:50:53 GMT -6 FSUVike said:

2. The intermediate is working for opposing Offenses because Hicks is bad in coverage and Kendricks is having one of his worst years in that regard from what my eyes are telling me.

I've had the same thought with Kendricks. I watch a pass over the middle and Kendricks isn't quite deep enough to get there, so I assume he's lost a step. However, if the safties are playing deeper than he's used to, it could be he is the same speed and the defense is asking him to cover more space.

I would like to see the position of the safties change a bit - just a few yards - before finalizing judgment on Kendricks.

Prior to the Bears game, I was all aboard the Asamoah over Hicks hype train. Then they put Asamoah in. His first play after he came in (or back in if i missed him earlier in the gane) he just froze and stood there like he was wondering "OK, what are the rules to this game?" And the Bears ran a big gain right where Asamoah should have been. Kendricks immediately approached him and appeared to tell him to get his head in the game, and he was subbed back out. So Asamosh might not be ready.

And if Asamoah isn't ready and Cine wasn't playable, that's a lot of high picks Donnatell and his staff haven't been able to prepare. At this point, I have to go with the position of: if you can explain something simply, you don't know it well enough. It's not enough for a coach to know X's and O's (that not even that good of a song), I'd argue the ability to communicate clearly, teach and coach are more important than tactical knowledge. I'm sure Donnatell (and staff) have plenty of tactical knowledge, but the list of underperforming players (adding Hunter to Hicks, Cine, Asamoah) is getting long.

Purple Pain
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Bye Week - Vikings Must Fix ________ Oct 20, 2022 9:38:32 GMT -6

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Post by Purple Pain on Oct 20, 2022 9:38:32 GMT -6

Young - Vikings Special Teams at Bye: Stats Explain 5-1 Start & Room to Improve

2 special teams stats that illustrate why the Vikings say they have room to improve

1. Looking for consistency on 50+

Joseph has been tremendously consistent for Minnesota on field goals of distances under 50 yards, but he has room for improvement on the 50-plus shots.

The Vikings are just 1-of-5 on field goals from 50 yards or more, although one of those misses includes a 51-yard field goal attempt blocked by the Bears and two others were from 56 yards.

Joseph is perfect so far on four attempts from 20-29 yards, two attempts from 30-39 and two attempts from 40-49. But the 20-percent success rate on the especially long attempts drops Minnesota's overall field goal percentage to 69.2, which is tied with New Orleans for second worst in the league.

O'Connell likes the potential range Joseph has shown, but a miss from 50-plus can yield great field position for the other team.

2. A chance to boost punt returns?

It's a good thing when one must reach a little bit to find a second area in which the Vikings special teams can improve.

But when looking at the numbers, there's room for growth at punt return.

Through the first six games, Minnesota ranks 16th in the league with an average of 8.3 yards per punt return.

The stat isn't shabby, but it's very mediocre.

The Vikings traded to get receiver/return specialist Jalen Reagor from the Eagles just prior to Week 1, and he's returned 11 punts thus far. His longest was a 25-yard return at Miami, which can be viewed here, last week.

Ball security is of the utmost importance, and Reagor has fumbled during two returns – against Detroit and against Chicago. He's fortunately recovered both fumbles, but the preference certainly is avoiding a loose ball all together.

dauntessmallhands
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Bye Week - Vikings Must Fix ________ Oct 20, 2022 13:00:08 GMT -6 Danchat and MidwinterViking like this

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Post by dauntessmallhands on Oct 20, 2022 13:00:08 GMT -6

Oct 20, 2022 7:25:48 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

Oct 19, 2022 11:50:53 GMT -6 FSUVike said:

2. The intermediate is working for opposing Offenses because Hicks is bad in coverage and Kendricks is having one of his worst years in that regard from what my eyes are telling me.

I've had the same thought with Kendricks. I watch a pass over the middle and Kendricks isn't quite deep enough to get there, so I assume he's lost a step. However, if the safties are playing deeper than he's used to, it could be he is the same speed and the defense is asking him to cover more space.

I would like to see the position of the safties change a bit - just a few yards - before finalizing judgment on Kendricks.

Prior to the Bears game, I was all aboard the Asamoah over Hicks hype train. Then they put Asamoah in. His first play after he came in (or back in if i missed him earlier in the gane) he just froze and stood there like he was wondering "OK, what are the rules to this game?" And the Bears ran a big gain right where Asamoah should have been. Kendricks immediately approached him and appeared to tell him to get his head in the game, and he was subbed back out. So Asamosh might not be ready.

And if Asamoah isn't ready and Cine wasn't playable, that's a lot of high picks Donnatell and his staff haven't been able to prepare. At this point, I have to go with the position of: if you can explain something simply, you don't know it well enough. It's not enough for a coach to know X's and O's (that not even that good of a song), I'd argue the ability to communicate clearly, teach and coach are more important than tactical knowledge. I'm sure Donnatell (and staff) have plenty of tactical knowledge, but the list of underperforming players (adding Hunter to Hicks, Cine, Asamoah) is getting long.

There might be something to Donnatell and staff's ability to get young players acclimated, but they are young players. Probably playing in a different scheme than they're used to on top of trying to get up to NFL speed. Hunter is really the only one that I can see some adjustment difficulties. To me it comes down to him thinking vs. reacting. Maybe there's more diagnosis required of him as opposed to see and react.

I haven't done a true analysis, but I thought Harry was supposed to be more of a swiss army knife but my sense is that he's been playing pretty deep on anything that isn't obviously going to be a run.

So agreed that I'd like to see them be a shade more aggressive on coverage over the middle as teams are just picking us apart there. But make it random enough where we don't get burnt on a critical play late in the half etc. Which is what we saw last year. Teams seemed to save up those one or two plays for the right moments and torched us in the those critical moments.

I'll have to do some forensics, but from what I've seen of Bynum, he's just ok. Again, still developing but like woods last year, he seems late to the party a lot. That could be from positioning as much as awareness. And it's why I was bummed to hear Cine wasn't ready and then injured because I felt like he was the right player on paper to make the D more functional.

The guy in my crosshairs this year is sullivan. He's a waste of a roster spot. I'd rather just go with an extra safety at this point.

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Bye Week - Vikings Must Fix ________ Oct 20, 2022 14:05:54 GMT -6 vikingpwr likes this

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Post by MidwinterViking on Oct 20, 2022 14:05:54 GMT -6

Oct 20, 2022 13:00:08 GMT -6 dauntessmallhands said:

The guy in my crosshairs this year is sullivan. He's a waste of a roster spot. I'd rather just go with an extra safety at this point.

You're going to need to back this up more that just saying he's a waste of a roster spot. After the Dolphins threw for 385, I went back and watched the entire game again looking specifically at coverage and Sullivan was fine. He gave up a few catches to Tyreek Hill, but that's going to happen when the 3rd CB on a team is isolated against Hill. A few examples of those coverages:

- A 3rd and 10 where Sullivan played Hill as if he was running a deep route but Hill broke it off for an out route. I'd prefer no catch, but this wasn't hottible

- A play where Hill ran straight down the seam, Sullivan appeared to indicate he was expecting a safety to pick up Hill. Hill got past Sullivan and caught the ball 17-19 yards downfield and the safeties were even on the screen.

- A broken play where Sullivan was in a zone and Hill found a hole in the zone behind Sullivan, not much more he could do here, just a broken play.

- A crossing route against Waddle (Waddle's fumble play), Sullivan was trailing Waddle, a catch given up but that's a really difficult cover to have to chase Waddle on a slant across the field.

Overall, the hole in the defense that was picked on most frequently was the zone behind Jordan Hicks and in front of Harrison Smith. Overall Sullivan I don't think Sullivan is one of the top 3 issues the Vikings defense has.

OdinHammer Pro Bowl Posts: 2,081 Likes: 1,695	Bye Week - Vikings Must Fix ________ Oct 20, 2022 19:29:10 GMT -6 Quote Select Post Deselect Post Link to Post Member Give Gift Back to Top Post by OdinHammer on Oct 20, 2022 19:29:10 GMT -6 After reading the title for this thread I got one thought racing through my mind: Kicking kicking kicking Greg Joseph kicking

dauntessmallhands
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Bye Week - Vikings Must Fix ________ Oct 21, 2022 18:23:44 GMT -6

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Post by dauntessmallhands on Oct 21, 2022 18:23:44 GMT -6

Oct 20, 2022 14:05:54 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

Oct 20, 2022 13:00:08 GMT -6 dauntessmallhands said:

The guy in my crosshairs this year is sullivan. He's a waste of a roster spot. I'd rather just go with an extra safety at this point.

You're going to need to back this up more that just saying he's a waste of a roster spot. After the Dolphins threw for 385, I went back and watched the entire game again looking specifically at coverage and Sullivan was fine. He gave up a few catches to Tyreek Hill, but that's going to happen when the 3rd CB on a team is isolated against Hill. A few examples of those coverages:

- A 3rd and 10 where Sullivan played Hill as if he was running a deep route but Hill broke it off for an out route. I'd prefer no catch, but this wasn't hottible

- A play where Hill ran straight down the seam, Sullivan appeared to indicate he was expecting a safety to pick up Hill. Hill got past Sullivan and caught the ball 17-19 yards downfield and the safeties were even on the screen.

- A broken play where Sullivan was in a zone and Hill found a hole in the zone behind Sullivan, not much more he could do here, just a broken play.

- A crossing route against Waddle (Waddle's fumble play), Sullivan was trailing Waddle, a catch given up but that's a really difficult cover to have to chase Waddle on a slant across the field.

Overall, the hole in the defense that was picked on most frequently was the zone behind Jordan Hicks and in front of Harrison Smith. Overall Sullivan I don't think Sullivan is one of the top 3 issues the Vikings defense has.

Thanks for making me go back to verify my statements as they were mostly made from my intermittent observations of him during games combined with his numbers. Like that overall defensive rating on pff of 50.2 and an overall coverage grade of 42.2. Or his passer rating against of 126.9.

I went back and watched the Bears game because I figured their slot receiver wouldn't be very good and it probably isn't fair to grade him on covering Hill who basically can torch just about anyone.

So I will caveat this that I was pretty biased about him not being a good player going in so take that for what it's worth. But my overall view of him hasn't changed and in fact it's actually gotten worse now. The first thing I noticed from re-watching is that Fields is just not a very good passer and makes terrible decisions quite often. Because there were several cases where Sullivan's guy was wide open and Fields just didn't see him. A few times it was because of some good pressure from the D line. And there were also a couple of just really poor throws by Fields. One of which should have been a touchdown pass. He also ran the wrong direction a couple times and ended up on no one. And there were at least 3-4 times where another vikings defender looked over toward him after the play and he just put his arms up as if he was confused.

But the real concerning thing that stood out to me was the fact that he avoids contact like the plague. I lost track of how many time the ball and therefore the pile was in his area and he would just let up and jog toward it while he watched others make the tackle. Or where someone would get in front of him to block and he made almost no effort to get around that person to get to the ball. There was one tackle he made on a run where he 'stopped' the RB who ran over him and put him on his back. He then got up all puffed up like he made a great play and everyone on the team ignored him. Not a single person giving him the courtesy high five or pat on the butt. On his missed tackle he actually jumped to the side and stuck his arm out which the ball carrier ran right through. It actually got kinda funny at one point watching him let others get involved why he just stood there.

So yeah, he's still on my radar big time as a guy who's a major hole in the defense and now I'll be more aware of his effort or lack thereof.

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Bye Week - Vikings Must Fix ________ Oct 21, 2022 19:00:13 GMT -6

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Post by Danchat on Oct 21, 2022 19:00:13 GMT -6

Oct 20, 2022 14:05:54 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

After the Dolphins threw for 385, I went back and watched the entire game again looking specifically at coverage and Sullivan was fine. He gave up a few catches to Tyreek Hill, but that's going to happen when the 3rd CB on a team is isolated against Hill. A few examples of those coverages:

Isn't that a big problem? We shouldn't be lining up Sullivan against the NFL leading WR in yards right now, seems like it would be an easy thing for opposing teams to scheme some free yards.

PlayerProfiler had him giving up 98 yards while PFF had 113 yards... if that is a decent day for him, as a nickel CB, I am afraid for what an actually bad game would be.

Oct 20, 2022 14:05:54 GMT -6 MidwinterViking said:

Overall, the hole in the defense that was picked on most frequently was the zone behind Jordan Hicks and in front of Harrison Smith. Overall Sullivan I don't think Sullivan is one of the top 3 issues the Vikings defense has.

We're 29th in passing yards allowed, and yet from what it sounds like you're saying, the DBs are good for the most part? I don't buy it.