Fraudulent ... 13-4 Lucky or Legit?!
Nov 17, 2022 3:52:24 GMT -6
Funkytown, FSUVike, and 1 more like this
Post by Krauser on Nov 17, 2022 3:52:24 GMT -6
Are the Vikings good?
Sunday's win gave both sides ammunition for their argument. If you're a Vikings believer, you saw a team fight back against one of the NFL's best teams down 17 points in the second half and win. The Vikings overcame adversity, picked up big plays when they needed, forced two critical Allen interceptions and pulled out a game in which they were seen as underdogs on a national stage against Case Keenum, let alone an MVP candidate in Allen.
If you're more of a skeptic, well, you can tell yourself an entirely different story. The Vikings fell behind by multiple touchdowns and needed one long touchdown run by Dalvin Cook to get back in the game before the greatest catch of Jefferson's life extended it. Then, after they were stuffed at the goal line, the Bills gifted them a touchdown with a botched snap. Ed Donatell's defense then failed to stop the Bills from driving for a tying field goal. While the Vikings took the lead in overtime, the Bills were driving to match or win before a mental mistake by Allen handed Minnesota yet another close victory.
I fall somewhere in the middle on this question. Pulling out a win in Buffalo is impressive, no matter how they come about that victory. Since acquiring Diggs in 2020, the Bills had been 19-4 at home and 20-3 when scoring at least 30 points. They had been 8-0 when both were true. Even if it took a well-timed fumble, this is the sort of win the Vikings can point to as the first line on their 2022 résumé.
As successful as this formula has been for Minnesota, it's not the hallmark of great teams. Teams that end up having postseason success typically don't toy with their regular-season opponents. They blow teams out. The Vikings are 8-1 and have won each of the games on their seven-game win streak by eight points or fewer. Eight-point margins aren't one-possession games since a team can't win the game on a single drive, but you get the idea: These are close games, and the Vikings have needed late scores to beat the Bills, Commanders, Lions and Saints.
Yet there's a fair number of teams that have won games this way and managed to find postseason success. The only other team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to win seven consecutive games by eight points or fewer is the 2020 Chiefs, who rode their luck all the way to the Super Bowl before being torn apart by offensive line injuries and the Tampa Bay pass rush. Those Chiefs already had proved that they could dominate teams in 2019, though, so we didn't have the same conversations about their abilities.
Looking at it a different way, Minnesota has seven victories by eight points or fewer across the first nine games of its season. That's tied for the most since the merger, and the two other teams with seven such wins represent two dramatic swings. The 1987 Chargers were affected by the strike, but they went 8-1 to start the season while winning one game by more than six points. Al Saunders' team promptly lost its last six games and missed the playoffs.
On the other hand, the 2006 Colts did this same thing, and after getting back safety Bob Sanders for the playoffs, they got hot on defense and won Super Bowl XLI. The 1976 Raiders won six of their first nine games by eight points or fewer, went 13-1 and won a Lombardi. The 2003 Panthers finished 11-5 and made it to the Super Bowl. All things being equal, you're better off being a team that wins by a lot each week, but winning a bunch of close games in a season doesn't preclude a team from making a deep playoff run.
At some point, having victories in your back pocket can help overcome whatever deficiencies are on the roster. Remember 2017? The Eagles weren't this sort of team when they started 11-2, but when quarterback Carson Wentz went down with a torn ACL, backup Nick Foles was forced into the lineup. Foles had a big game in a win over the Giants, but he struggled badly the next week and was benched in Week 17.
In a vacuum, an Eagles team with Foles at quarterback wouldn't have seemed like the favorite to win a Super Bowl. With all those banked victories, though, they finished with the top seed in the NFC, netting them a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the postseason. Foles struggled through a narrow win over the Falcons, but he got hot in a blowout victory over the Falcons in the NFC Championship Game. You remember what happened in Super Bowl LII.
The Vikings aren't as strong of a team as those Eagles were with Wentz, but if the 2022 Eagles slip up, Cousins & Co. are best-positioned to pounce. Their chances of making it through the NFC are a lot better if they have to win two games at home as opposed to three games with at least one road trip involved.
The other crystal-clear element for the Vikings is that they believe they belong among the top teams in the league. Maybe that doesn't matter much, and if they lose to the Patriots and the Cowboys over the next two weeks, that self-belief will dissipate as quickly as it appeared. But after years of frustrating moments, missed kicks and a coaching staff that often seemed frustrated with the roster, everybody is on the same page in Minnesota. It sure looks a lot more fun to be a Vikings player this year than it did a year ago.
Sunday's win gave both sides ammunition for their argument. If you're a Vikings believer, you saw a team fight back against one of the NFL's best teams down 17 points in the second half and win. The Vikings overcame adversity, picked up big plays when they needed, forced two critical Allen interceptions and pulled out a game in which they were seen as underdogs on a national stage against Case Keenum, let alone an MVP candidate in Allen.
If you're more of a skeptic, well, you can tell yourself an entirely different story. The Vikings fell behind by multiple touchdowns and needed one long touchdown run by Dalvin Cook to get back in the game before the greatest catch of Jefferson's life extended it. Then, after they were stuffed at the goal line, the Bills gifted them a touchdown with a botched snap. Ed Donatell's defense then failed to stop the Bills from driving for a tying field goal. While the Vikings took the lead in overtime, the Bills were driving to match or win before a mental mistake by Allen handed Minnesota yet another close victory.
I fall somewhere in the middle on this question. Pulling out a win in Buffalo is impressive, no matter how they come about that victory. Since acquiring Diggs in 2020, the Bills had been 19-4 at home and 20-3 when scoring at least 30 points. They had been 8-0 when both were true. Even if it took a well-timed fumble, this is the sort of win the Vikings can point to as the first line on their 2022 résumé.
As successful as this formula has been for Minnesota, it's not the hallmark of great teams. Teams that end up having postseason success typically don't toy with their regular-season opponents. They blow teams out. The Vikings are 8-1 and have won each of the games on their seven-game win streak by eight points or fewer. Eight-point margins aren't one-possession games since a team can't win the game on a single drive, but you get the idea: These are close games, and the Vikings have needed late scores to beat the Bills, Commanders, Lions and Saints.
Yet there's a fair number of teams that have won games this way and managed to find postseason success. The only other team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to win seven consecutive games by eight points or fewer is the 2020 Chiefs, who rode their luck all the way to the Super Bowl before being torn apart by offensive line injuries and the Tampa Bay pass rush. Those Chiefs already had proved that they could dominate teams in 2019, though, so we didn't have the same conversations about their abilities.
Looking at it a different way, Minnesota has seven victories by eight points or fewer across the first nine games of its season. That's tied for the most since the merger, and the two other teams with seven such wins represent two dramatic swings. The 1987 Chargers were affected by the strike, but they went 8-1 to start the season while winning one game by more than six points. Al Saunders' team promptly lost its last six games and missed the playoffs.
On the other hand, the 2006 Colts did this same thing, and after getting back safety Bob Sanders for the playoffs, they got hot on defense and won Super Bowl XLI. The 1976 Raiders won six of their first nine games by eight points or fewer, went 13-1 and won a Lombardi. The 2003 Panthers finished 11-5 and made it to the Super Bowl. All things being equal, you're better off being a team that wins by a lot each week, but winning a bunch of close games in a season doesn't preclude a team from making a deep playoff run.
At some point, having victories in your back pocket can help overcome whatever deficiencies are on the roster. Remember 2017? The Eagles weren't this sort of team when they started 11-2, but when quarterback Carson Wentz went down with a torn ACL, backup Nick Foles was forced into the lineup. Foles had a big game in a win over the Giants, but he struggled badly the next week and was benched in Week 17.
In a vacuum, an Eagles team with Foles at quarterback wouldn't have seemed like the favorite to win a Super Bowl. With all those banked victories, though, they finished with the top seed in the NFC, netting them a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the postseason. Foles struggled through a narrow win over the Falcons, but he got hot in a blowout victory over the Falcons in the NFC Championship Game. You remember what happened in Super Bowl LII.
The Vikings aren't as strong of a team as those Eagles were with Wentz, but if the 2022 Eagles slip up, Cousins & Co. are best-positioned to pounce. Their chances of making it through the NFC are a lot better if they have to win two games at home as opposed to three games with at least one road trip involved.
The other crystal-clear element for the Vikings is that they believe they belong among the top teams in the league. Maybe that doesn't matter much, and if they lose to the Patriots and the Cowboys over the next two weeks, that self-belief will dissipate as quickly as it appeared. But after years of frustrating moments, missed kicks and a coaching staff that often seemed frustrated with the roster, everybody is on the same page in Minnesota. It sure looks a lot more fun to be a Vikings player this year than it did a year ago.
Wow that's really interesting.
I found an article by the same writer (Bill Barnwell) that makes some strong points in opposition to the ones you selectively highlighted.
I'll quote at length and highlight what I think are the important points, like you did:
Are the Vikings good?
Sunday's win gave both sides ammunition for their argument. If you're a Vikings believer, you saw a team fight back against one of the NFL's best teams down 17 points in the second half and win. The Vikings overcame adversity, picked up big plays when they needed, forced two critical Allen interceptions and pulled out a game in which they were seen as underdogs on a national stage against Case Keenum, let alone an MVP candidate in Allen.
If you're more of a skeptic, well, you can tell yourself an entirely different story. The Vikings fell behind by multiple touchdowns and needed one long touchdown run by Dalvin Cook to get back in the game before the greatest catch of Jefferson's life extended it. Then, after they were stuffed at the goal line, the Bills gifted them a touchdown with a botched snap. Ed Donatell's defense then failed to stop the Bills from driving for a tying field goal. While the Vikings took the lead in overtime, the Bills were driving to match or win before a mental mistake by Allen handed Minnesota yet another close victory.
I fall somewhere in the middle on this question. Pulling out a win in Buffalo is impressive, no matter how they come about that victory. Since acquiring Diggs in 2020, the Bills had been 19-4 at home and 20-3 when scoring at least 30 points. They had been 8-0 when both were true. Even if it took a well-timed fumble, this is the sort of win the Vikings can point to as the first line on their 2022 résumé.
As successful as this formula has been for Minnesota, it's not the hallmark of great teams. Teams that end up having postseason success typically don't toy with their regular-season opponents. They blow teams out. The Vikings are 8-1 and have won each of the games on their seven-game win streak by eight points or fewer. Eight-point margins aren't one-possession games since a team can't win the game on a single drive, but you get the idea: These are close games, and the Vikings have needed late scores to beat the Bills, Commanders, Lions and Saints.
Yet there's a fair number of teams that have won games this way and managed to find postseason success. The only other team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to win seven consecutive games by eight points or fewer is the 2020 Chiefs, who rode their luck all the way to the Super Bowl before being torn apart by offensive line injuries and the Tampa Bay pass rush. Those Chiefs already had proved that they could dominate teams in 2019, though, so we didn't have the same conversations about their abilities.
Looking at it a different way, Minnesota has seven victories by eight points or fewer across the first nine games of its season. That's tied for the most since the merger, and the two other teams with seven such wins represent two dramatic swings. The 1987 Chargers were affected by the strike, but they went 8-1 to start the season while winning one game by more than six points. Al Saunders' team promptly lost its last six games and missed the playoffs.
On the other hand, the 2006 Colts did this same thing, and after getting back safety Bob Sanders for the playoffs, they got hot on defense and won Super Bowl XLI. The 1976 Raiders won six of their first nine games by eight points or fewer, went 13-1 and won a Lombardi. The 2003 Panthers finished 11-5 and made it to the Super Bowl. All things being equal, you're better off being a team that wins by a lot each week, but winning a bunch of close games in a season doesn't preclude a team from making a deep playoff run.
At some point, having victories in your back pocket can help overcome whatever deficiencies are on the roster. Remember 2017? The Eagles weren't this sort of team when they started 11-2, but when quarterback Carson Wentz went down with a torn ACL, backup Nick Foles was forced into the lineup. Foles had a big game in a win over the Giants, but he struggled badly the next week and was benched in Week 17.
In a vacuum, an Eagles team with Foles at quarterback wouldn't have seemed like the favorite to win a Super Bowl. With all those banked victories, though, they finished with the top seed in the NFC, netting them a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the postseason. Foles struggled through a narrow win over the Falcons, but he got hot in a blowout victory over the Falcons in the NFC Championship Game. You remember what happened in Super Bowl LII.
The Vikings aren't as strong of a team as those Eagles were with Wentz, but if the 2022 Eagles slip up, Cousins & Co. are best-positioned to pounce. Their chances of making it through the NFC are a lot better if they have to win two games at home as opposed to three games with at least one road trip involved.
The other crystal-clear element for the Vikings is that they believe they belong among the top teams in the league. Maybe that doesn't matter much, and if they lose to the Patriots and the Cowboys over the next two weeks, that self-belief will dissipate as quickly as it appeared. But after years of frustrating moments, missed kicks and a coaching staff that often seemed frustrated with the roster, everybody is on the same page in Minnesota. It sure looks a lot more fun to be a Vikings player this year than it did a year ago.
Sunday's win gave both sides ammunition for their argument. If you're a Vikings believer, you saw a team fight back against one of the NFL's best teams down 17 points in the second half and win. The Vikings overcame adversity, picked up big plays when they needed, forced two critical Allen interceptions and pulled out a game in which they were seen as underdogs on a national stage against Case Keenum, let alone an MVP candidate in Allen.
If you're more of a skeptic, well, you can tell yourself an entirely different story. The Vikings fell behind by multiple touchdowns and needed one long touchdown run by Dalvin Cook to get back in the game before the greatest catch of Jefferson's life extended it. Then, after they were stuffed at the goal line, the Bills gifted them a touchdown with a botched snap. Ed Donatell's defense then failed to stop the Bills from driving for a tying field goal. While the Vikings took the lead in overtime, the Bills were driving to match or win before a mental mistake by Allen handed Minnesota yet another close victory.
I fall somewhere in the middle on this question. Pulling out a win in Buffalo is impressive, no matter how they come about that victory. Since acquiring Diggs in 2020, the Bills had been 19-4 at home and 20-3 when scoring at least 30 points. They had been 8-0 when both were true. Even if it took a well-timed fumble, this is the sort of win the Vikings can point to as the first line on their 2022 résumé.
As successful as this formula has been for Minnesota, it's not the hallmark of great teams. Teams that end up having postseason success typically don't toy with their regular-season opponents. They blow teams out. The Vikings are 8-1 and have won each of the games on their seven-game win streak by eight points or fewer. Eight-point margins aren't one-possession games since a team can't win the game on a single drive, but you get the idea: These are close games, and the Vikings have needed late scores to beat the Bills, Commanders, Lions and Saints.
Yet there's a fair number of teams that have won games this way and managed to find postseason success. The only other team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to win seven consecutive games by eight points or fewer is the 2020 Chiefs, who rode their luck all the way to the Super Bowl before being torn apart by offensive line injuries and the Tampa Bay pass rush. Those Chiefs already had proved that they could dominate teams in 2019, though, so we didn't have the same conversations about their abilities.
Looking at it a different way, Minnesota has seven victories by eight points or fewer across the first nine games of its season. That's tied for the most since the merger, and the two other teams with seven such wins represent two dramatic swings. The 1987 Chargers were affected by the strike, but they went 8-1 to start the season while winning one game by more than six points. Al Saunders' team promptly lost its last six games and missed the playoffs.
On the other hand, the 2006 Colts did this same thing, and after getting back safety Bob Sanders for the playoffs, they got hot on defense and won Super Bowl XLI. The 1976 Raiders won six of their first nine games by eight points or fewer, went 13-1 and won a Lombardi. The 2003 Panthers finished 11-5 and made it to the Super Bowl. All things being equal, you're better off being a team that wins by a lot each week, but winning a bunch of close games in a season doesn't preclude a team from making a deep playoff run.
At some point, having victories in your back pocket can help overcome whatever deficiencies are on the roster. Remember 2017? The Eagles weren't this sort of team when they started 11-2, but when quarterback Carson Wentz went down with a torn ACL, backup Nick Foles was forced into the lineup. Foles had a big game in a win over the Giants, but he struggled badly the next week and was benched in Week 17.
In a vacuum, an Eagles team with Foles at quarterback wouldn't have seemed like the favorite to win a Super Bowl. With all those banked victories, though, they finished with the top seed in the NFC, netting them a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the postseason. Foles struggled through a narrow win over the Falcons, but he got hot in a blowout victory over the Falcons in the NFC Championship Game. You remember what happened in Super Bowl LII.
The Vikings aren't as strong of a team as those Eagles were with Wentz, but if the 2022 Eagles slip up, Cousins & Co. are best-positioned to pounce. Their chances of making it through the NFC are a lot better if they have to win two games at home as opposed to three games with at least one road trip involved.
The other crystal-clear element for the Vikings is that they believe they belong among the top teams in the league. Maybe that doesn't matter much, and if they lose to the Patriots and the Cowboys over the next two weeks, that self-belief will dissipate as quickly as it appeared. But after years of frustrating moments, missed kicks and a coaching staff that often seemed frustrated with the roster, everybody is on the same page in Minnesota. It sure looks a lot more fun to be a Vikings player this year than it did a year ago.
The key sentence is the one we both highlighted. You decided to highlight only the first half of it, but I think the entire statement should be taken as a whole.
All things being equal, you're better off being a team that wins by a lot each week, but winning a bunch of close games in a season doesn't preclude a team from making a deep playoff run.
I don't think anyone (at least anyone who knows anything) is saying the Vikings points differential doesn't matter. Of course we could be more confident in the team if they were 8-1 with a +135 points differential and multiple double-digit wins than the current version.
But there's no need to ignore the fact that they're 8-1, as if that doesn't matter, while focussing entirely on the points differential or DVOA or whatever, as if those numbers guarantee the team is doomed.
Points differential and DVOA are somewhat useful as indicators of team quality, and thus of expected future performance. But splits happen all the time in the NFL, so leading in these metrics halfway through the season isn't any sort of great accomplishment, or guarantee of future success. Teams rise up or fall down the rankings as the year goes on. And some teams are relative outliers -- overperforming or under-performing their expected wins totals based on points margin, DVOA or whatever, even over a full year.
Last year after week 10 (https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/standings.cgi?week=10&year=2021&wk_league=NFL), the 5 best teams by points differential were the Bills, Patriots, Cardinals, Cowboys and Bucs. None of those teams ended up making it to the conference championships. The Rams meanwhile were +44 with a 7-3 record, and the Bengals were +33 with a 5-4 record.
By DVOA after week 10 (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/historical-lookup-by-week/2021/10/overall), the top 5 was the same teams in a different order: Bills, Bucs, Cowboys, Cards, Patriots. The Rams looked good at 6th by DVOA but the Bengals were way down in 25th, behind the Panthers and Giants, and just ahead of the Bears.
By the end of the year, the Super Bowl teams had improved but still weren't at the top of the league. The Rams were 7th and the Bengals 9th in points differential, with the Colts between them (who didn't even make the playoffs). LA improved to 5th in DVOA. The Bengals improved too, but only to 17th, just behind the Vikings.
...this is a good time for anyone reading this who's still on the "fraud" beat this year to link to their post from 2021 arguing that the Vikings were better than their record in the first part of the year (they were 11th in DVOA when they were 3-5) or that they could have been as good as the Bengals in the playoffs (since they had a better DVOA than Cincinnati during the regular season). If you didn't write a post like that, at the time, I'll kindly ask why you suddenly care so much more about these sorts of numbers this year, when they show the Vikings are worse than their winning record, not better than their losing record....
In the Vikings case this year, their 8 wins are more valuable than any better points differential would be. They're already very likely to win the division and host at least one playoff game, potentially two. They even have a real chance at getting the 1st seed, which would mean a bye and home field advantage for all playoff games. Minnesota has one of the best home field advantages in the league, so that would be a real advantage, especially if they only have to win 2 playoff rounds to get out of the NFC.
...
After the Buffalo game, it seems the Vikings will have a fighting chance in every game for the rest of the year. I still don't think they're as good as the best of the best (Eagles, Bills, Chiefs or whoever else you want to include this week), but they can be competitive with anyone.
And that was the whole point of this year -- not that they were going to be a dominant contender who would steamroll the league, but that they would be legitimately competitive by getting the most out of their talent. Despite the 8-1 record, they're no guarantee to win the conference, let along the whole thing.
But they're playing well, they're winning, and they're having fun with it. I suggest we all try to enjoy the rest of the year -- let it play out and see how it goes.