2023 Draft - QB Watch

Great stuff, Uncle. I don't want much college ball, so having summaries like this will be really nice.


I did see some of this game, and I must say I'm very impressed with Richardson. He certainly intrigues me.

Updated through a very interesting Week 2:



QB's In-Danger of Coming Off List:
- Phil Jurkovec (Boston College); one of the seven QB's with less than 60% COMP, less than 400 APY, sacked 9 times and his team is 0-2. I'm leaving him on because he's a Redshirt Sr and has a "cupcake" game coming up vs Maine so his stats should improve, but if not, he's gone.
- Jeff Sims (Georgia Tech); I actually like his game vs a tough Clemson defense, but he's one of four QB's with more INT's than TD's, one of two QB's with a QB RAT less than 100.0 and one of two QB's with less than 400 APY AND he played a "cupcake" in Week 2 (W Carolina). He's young (only 21) and only a Redshirt Sophomore and right now looks like someone who could benefit from another year in college.

QB's On-Deck:
- Spencer Sanders (Oklahoma St); I didn't think he was strong enough of a passer in 2021 (more duel-threat) to make the initial list, but he's had two strong starts for a 2-0 Oklahoma St team looking to get back to the BIG XII Championship game this season. He'll probably be the first one to come on if Jurkovec and Sims continue to falter.
- Sam Hartman (Wake Forest); he became active this past week and opened his 2022 season vs Vanderbilt with a 300 yd, 4 TD game. He may need a few more games to see if he's "back" fully and make the Top 25 list, and the Demon Deacons have a big matcup with Clemson at home on 9/24.
- KJ Jefferson (Arkansas); like Spencer Sanders, I'm not a fan of his passing game, but he's had two solid games vs solid opposition (Cincinnati and South Carolina) and hasn't thrown an INT yet. The Razorbacks have a few "cupcake" games coming up before they start SEC play so his stats should continue to go up before then.

Week 2 Notes:
- Florida QB Anthony Richardson had a very poor Week 2 coming off that great Week 1 outing vs Utah. Kentucky had a LB "spy" him in the 1st half which prevented him making plays with his feet and he couldn't make any intermediate throws to move the ball. He had a really bad Pick 6 with the game tied in the 4th Qtr that didn't quite seal the game, but with the way he was playing, it pretty much did. It was night-and-day from Week 1, but he's young with not too many starting snaps so let's see how he rebounds.
- On the other side, Kentucky's Will Levis played within himself and didn't make too many mistakes. He didn't go out and "win" the game by himself (Kentucky leaned on their OL and their running game in the 2nd half) but he did help move the chains when he had to. He's been compared to Josh Allen and you saw some of that: he has a bigger/LB-frame and aborbed many big hits from Florida's defense and bouces back up, like Allen. You can also tell he "wants it": he's pretty "hyped-up" much like Allen and you can tell he'd give his right arm to win games. Now, on the flip-side of that last sentiment, the ESPN cameras did pan to the sideline after the game was nearly over with Levis sort of "mocking" / waiving "goodbye" to Gator fans:

As amped-up and competitive Allen gets, I'm not sure he does that sort of stuff to opposing fans. Kentucky/Florida is a rivalry and I'm sure fans in the Swamp poke fun at Wildcat players all the time, but it's just a character trait to watch as the season progresses.

- Tennessee's Hendon Hooker looked impressive in a big road win @ Pitt, but more importantly, he looked good passing the ball, which I questioned coming into this season (thought he was more of a runner). He's still a threat on the ground, but he threw some really nice balls against an aggressive/solid Pitt defense.
- I got my first look at WSU QB Cameron Ward, who won a big game on the road vs a ranked Wisconsin team. His arm isn't nearly as "big" as what I've read, but given he was playing FCS competition for the past 2 seasons, I thought he played solid. Like Levis, he didn't "win" the game for WSU, but he moved the chains in crunch time when it mattered and made a few key throws. I'm interested to see how he does the rest of the season.
- Similarly, I got my first look at BYU QB J Hall in their big win vs a Top 10 Baylor team. Like Ward, his play was "solid", but unlike Ward, Hall made some real big-time NFL-level throws - solid throws to the opposite hash and very good accuracy down the field. Hall does remind me somewhat of Russell Wilson - a "thicker"-framed QB that manages the offense and has a solid arm. BYU has a loaded schedule so we'll have plenty of chances to see Hall again this season.
- It's worth noting that the only QB with a RAT still above 200.0 is Tulane's Michael Pratt. They haven't played anybody, but he's looked real good and has a tough game in Week 3 in Manhattan at KSU. If Pratt continues to look this good after next week, he'll be climbing up the board.

Week 3 QB Matchups to Watch:

- Will Rogers (Miss St) @ Jayden Daniels (LSU): this will be Rogers' first test of 2022 and Daniels has looked solid as the Tigers replacement QB when their original starting QB left football before Week 1.
- Michael Pratt (Tulane) @ Adrian Martinez (KSU): Martinez fell-off the list after he didn't do much in Wk 1, but has a shot to get back on. Pratt is a sneaky, "under-the-radar" prospect that's played as well as anyone so far, but Tulane hasn't played anyone - that changes in Week 3 as Manhattan is always a tough place to play.
- Jaren Hall (BYU) @ Oregon: I liked Hall's Week 2 game vs Baylor and this is his first road test of 2022 at Oregon.
- Tyler Van Dyke (Miami, FL) @ Texas A&M: Van Dyke is one of seven QB prospects with a COMP% north of 70% and this will be the spotlight game of Week 3. The primetime lights were a bit too bright for Anthony Richardson in Week 2, so let's see how the other Rd 1 prospect from the state of Florida does.

Young looks average to be honest this year. He is all over the place and his accuracy looks off. Texas should have won that game.

Stroud doesn't look all pro either to me. It will be interesting to see how the year unfolds.

I have no doubt that not having a go to WR is a big issue. That doesn't change the fact that he clearly has accuracy issues and is inconsistent this year from what I am watching. I personally like Stroud better.

As of now, before College Football Week 3, you're probably looking at a minimum of 4 QB's in Round 1, with another two a possibility...

The 4 "definite" Round 1 QB's at this point are:

Bryce Young, Alabama
CJ Stroud, Ohio St
Will Levis, Kentucky
Anthony Richardson, Florida

The other 2 "possiblities in Round 1 are:

- Tyler Van Dyke, Miami: if he has a great game @ Texas A&M in Week 3 in primetime, you might see him in Rd 1 more often. The reason he's not mocked more in Rd 1 is that he's a pocket passer and doesn't have great athleticism. He's going to need to keep up his passing stats up and shine in primetime games to cement his place there.
- (blank): I think there's a whole slew of QB's in the next tier below those 5 and someone is going to emerge from that group throughout the 2022 season to give themselves a shot at being drafted at the back-end of Rd 1. The top candidates from that bunch are probably Hendon Hooker (Tennessee), Tanner McKee (Stanford), Jaren Hall (BYU), Cameron Ward (WSU) and even Cameron Rising (Utah). I think it's entirely possible that someone emerges from this group to have a Zach Wilson/Kenny Pickett type ascension up the boards to Round 1 after a breakout 2022 season.

The record for the most QB's taken in Round 1 was the legendary QB class of 1983 with 6 total: there were 3 HOF QB's drafted (John Elway, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino) in between Todd Blackledge, Tony Eason and Ken O'Brien. I do think it's possible that the 2023 QB Class could tie that 1983 Class in terms of number of QB's drafted in Rd 1 with 6.

The other record which could be in reach is the total number of QB's drafted through 7 Rounds of a Draft - the 2004 QB Class holds the record with a whopping 17 QB's drafted in Rounds 1 through 7 (there was a late run on QB's in the late rounds that year with 10 QB's taken in Rounds 6 and 7). I'm only listing the Top 25 QB prospects in my weekly listings - and there's several more that I'm not listing - so I also think it's a possibility that you could approach that ballpark in terms of total QB's drafted in 2023, even if some don't declare.

Updated through Week 3:



QB's Dropped:
- Jeff Sims, Georgia Tech: another subpar afternoon for Sims and the Yellow Jackets were blown-out/shutout by Ole Miss at home. Again, I liked his game a bit in the season opener vs Clemson, but he's failed to build on that in the subsequent 2 weeks and he looks like he definitely needs another year in college before coming out.

QB's Added:
- Stetson Bennett, Georgia: I know he wasn't on my "On Deck" list last week, but his super efficient and consistent style is just too hard to ignore at this point. Yes, he plays on one of the most talented teams in the country, he'll be 25 in Oct and his height/arm strength are big question-marks, but the numbers just don't lie: he's played at a very high level for quite a while and as Georgia starts getting into SEC play, it's worth putting him on the list to follow going forward. The fact that Bennett has played so well for a while gives him the edge over Spencer Sanders, IMO.

QB's On-Deck:
- Spencer Sanders, Oklahoma St: another very good day for Sanders, albeit vs a "cupcake" team in Arkansas Pine-Bluff. If Phil Jurkovec struggles vs FSU and Sanders has a solid game vs a very good Baylor team on 10/1, Jurkovec will probably come off for Sanders.
- Sam Hartman, Wake Forest: it was a decent game, but Wake Forest barely beat Liberty and Hartman threw 2 INT's and had a COMP% less than 60% - that's not bad vs a tought Clemson team, but he should be putting up better #'s vs an opponent like Liberty. Hartman gets his shot next week in at home vs Clemson.
- Michael Penix, Jr, Washington: led the Huskies over a big home win vs Michigan St and is putting up really good #'s this season. He only started 6 games last season at Indiana (and the #'s were nothing to write home about), so if he continues to play well as Washington gets into PAC12 play, he might be coming on the list.

Week 3 Notes (games watched: BYU/Oregon, Miami/Texas A&M, Miss St/LSU, Fresno St/USC):
- Even though BYU got blown-off the ball on defense in their loss @ Oregon, I did think BYU QB Jaren Hall played well, even in the 1st half as the Cougars were still technically "in it". He was accurate and showed good movement in/out of the pocket to generate some offense. The problem with Hall is that, like Teddy Bridgewater, is there's no sense of urgency: I'm not sure if this is a product of BYU's offense/coaching staff but it takes Hall FOREVER to get up to the line and get the ball snapped. In the 1st half it was obvious that BYU was not going to win a battle of the trenches as they scored on their 1st 4 possessions, so BYU needed to shift their strategy and use Hall and his arm more, but they kept trying to go ball-control until it was way too late in the 2nd half. We'll get to see Hall more this season and we'll see if he progresses a bit more with his sense of urgency as the season goes on.
- I got my first look at Miami's Tyler Van Dyke and I thought he was "as-advertised": a very solid pocket QB with a good arm. I know his statline for the game isn't going to jump out to anyone (21-41, 217 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT), but the Miami WR dropped a whole bunch of crucial passes that could have helped him out. I thought he was accurate with his throws (didn't put the ball into areas) and proved that the primetime lights aren't too big for him. The Hurricans playcalling was also horrible: Van Dyke isn't a scrambler but they tried to run him in the red zone several times to zero success (not sure what they were thinking). Van Dyke reminds me of Kirk Cousins/Mac Jones: he has the business-like personality of Mac Jones and he looks somewhat like Couins in the pocket/throwing (Jones has more of an overhead throw like P Manning) and he has the mobility of both (ie, he's not going to scramble for 10+ yds). Personally, I'd like the Vikings next QB1 to have some mobility, but if the Vikings coaching staff has to have more of a pocket QB, Van Dyke is an option.
- I really did not like what I saw from Miss St QB Will Rogers and he looked like yet another Air Raid QB that is more of a product of a Mike Leech offense than NFL-level QB. On the other side, LSU's Jayden Daniels played decent - he didn't win the game by himself (a Miss St muffed punt really turned the momentum for good in the 2nd half), but he moved the chains when he had to and didn't put the ball into bad situations. He does have a "slight" build and when he scrambled up the gut for a 1st down and was hit by two Miss St defenders, he had to shake that off; you can tell that if he's going to need to learn not to take shots at the NFL level, or he'll be taking regular trips to the IR.
- I like the grittiness of Fresno St QB Jake Haener, but he was knocked around quite a bit by USC in the 1st half and he ultimatley suffered a bad ankle injury in the 3rd and had to be carted-off. He's got more zip on the ball than what you'd think when you look at his frame and I'd like to see him on a team with better weapons to see how he does. I think he has a QB2 floor in the NFL and I can see a bit of Ryan Fitzpatrick/Gardner Minshew fringe QB1 to him - he just needs a bit more "frame" to hold up in the NFL.
- Special shoutout to Tulane's Michael Pratt who's team went on the road to Manhattan, KS and won a big game over a solid Power 5 opponent in Kansas St. He only had a 50% COMP% and threw 2 INT's, but what he didn't do with his arm he did with his legs and ran for 80+ yds to help secure the big win.

Week 4 QB Matchups to Watch:
- Anthony Richardson (Florida) @ Hendon Hooker (Tennessee): this is the premiere QB matchup on-deck for Week 4. Richardson looked great in that Week 1 vs over Utah but has had two subpar games since. Hooker has steadily risen up the boards this season and is only 1 of 4 QB's on the list that hasn't thrown an INT.
- Brennon Armstrong (Virginia) @ Garrett Shrader (Syracuse): Armstrong hasn't looked as sharp throwing the ball this season and needs a big road win to get himself back into Day 2 conservations. Shrader has helped the 'Cuse to a 3-0 start and looks very draftable on Day 3. Good matchup under the ESPN Friday Night lights.
- DJ Uiagalelei (Clemson) @ Sam Hartman (Wake Forest): Uiagalelei needs a bigtime win on the road to get himself into Day 2 (IMO) and Hartman needs could use a big win to put the sting of the 2021 ACC Championship game behind him.
- Bo Nix (Oregon) @ Cameron Ward (Washington St): I wouldn't draft Nix at this point, but if the Ducks continue their turnaround he could sneak into late Day 3. The test here is for Ward in a bigtime PAC12 matchup.
- KJ Jefferson (Arkansas) vs Texas A&M: game will be played at "Jerry's House" (ie, Cowboys Stadium) and Jefferson could use a big win vs a very stingy A&M defense that held Tyler Van Dyke out of the end zone in Week 3.
- Tanner McKee (Stanford) @ Michael Penix, Jr (Washington): Penix Jr is on the "QB-watch" list after the Huskies big win over Mich St in Week 3 and he'll get another bite of the apple vs McKee in Week 4. McKee needs a big game to shake off that bad home loss to USC in Week 2.

Vikings won’t be in any position once the season ends to take one of the top 3 qbs. They will be picking in the 20’s most likely. They would have to trade multiple 1st round picks as well as an extra 2nd round pick and maybe a third to get up on top 5. I don’t think kwesi would do that, but I guess we also don’t have much history on him or know him to well so maybe he would if he could.