Is it Bradbury?

Garrett Bradbury came into the National Football League with a lot of hype. A first-round pick by the Minnesota Vikings in the 2019 draft, Bradbury was supposed to be a cornerstone of the offensive line but has fallen short of expectations.

Entering this season, Bradbury has a lot to prove. The Vikings predictably declined his fifth-year option, and it would have been understandable if the team had decided to move on. But Kevin O’Connell sees something in Bradbury and, despite his declaration of a training camp competition at center, he may believe he can save Bradbury’s career.

Bradbury came into the NFL as a draft darling. His relative athletic score was an astounding 9.96, and he was a perfect fit for the Vikings’ zone-based scheme. Although he was on the smaller side of the prototypical center, his technique and ability to process information figured to give him the upper hand, according to NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein.

“Bradbury’s body control, core strength, movement skills, and intelligence check very important boxes for teams looking for immediate center help,” Zierlein wrote. “His pass-pro tape against Clemson proves he can hold his own against a variety of pass-rush flavors, while his strength and athleticism make him scheme-flexible. He is a candidate to become an early and long-time starter in the league.”

That evaluation hasn’t played out to this point. Bradbury has been adequate in the running game, but he has become a liability in pass protection. Pro Football Focus gave him a pass-blocking grade of 0.0 in his first career game, and his 26 pressures allowed ranked seventh among centers.

Those numbers could be chalked up to growing pains, but Bradbury never improved. His 29 pressures allowed ranked fourth among centers in 2020. A year later, his 26 pressures allowed ranked fourth again, establishing him as one of the worst pass-blocking centers in the league.

Not even his expertise in the running game could save Bradbury’s PFF rating. He graded 29th out of 36 qualifiers with at least 20% of the league lead in snaps during his rookie year, and he graded 28th of 39 qualifiers and 38th of 41 qualifiers over the next two seasons.

With his lack of performance, it would have been understandable if O’Connell had just moved on. But his comments at the NFL Scouting Combine suggested that he could tap into Bradbury’s potential.

“I see a guy [with] really, really good movement skills,” O’Connell said. “Obviously, a guy that was drafted high for a reason. … He did a lot of really good things in college, and it’s just been a matter of finding the right fit for him and the right system, and what you are asking him to do, snap in and snap out, that gives him the best possible chance for success.”

Many dismissed those comments as coach speak, but the Vikings backed them up with their actions. They probably couldn’t afford an upgrade in free agency, but Minnesota passed on adding a center in the draft. When they reported for training camp, Austin Schlottmann received reps at second string before Bradbury struggled in pass-protection reps.

“He’s had some real moments of some strong performances, and then there’s been some other ones where Mike Pettine, Ed Donatell, and Mike Smith…know how to isolate people just like a lot of great coaches in this league do,” O’Connell said of Bradbury. “That’s where we’re challenging him each and every time. We’re really finding ways to try to simulate those tough downs.”

O’Connell later admitted that the Vikings were having a competition at center, but it still feels like Bradbury’s job to lose. Neither Schlottman nor Reed has played center during a regular-season game, and their issues with snapping the ball give Bradbury the inside track.

Another year of Bradbury gives Vikings fans nightmares of Akiem Hicks or Kenny Clark moving him like Michael Oher did in The Blind Side, but it might give O’Connell a different kind of flashback. Before Bradbury was struggling in Minnesota, Austin Blythe was having issues with the Los Angeles Rams. After a solid rookie season, Blythe’s overall PFF grade ranked 36th out of 36 qualifying centers in 2019.

The Rams made some tweaks the following offseason with O’Connell’s arrival, and Blythe was one of the main beneficiaries. In 2020, he ranked 13th out of 39 qualifiers and parlayed that performance into a free-agent deal with the Kansas City Chiefs.

After Blythe’s departure, the Rams turned to Brian Allen, who graded 34th out of 36 qualifying centers in 2019. Allen suffered a major knee injury in November 2019 before missing the 2020 season. However, he returned with a vengeance, grading fifth out of 41 qualifiers last year.

While Blythe and Allen have had previous injuries play key roles in their development, that track record should be a good omen for Bradbury.

Much like O’Connell aims to do for Kirk Cousins, his main goal should be to give Bradbury the answers to the test. If O’Connell puts him in a position to succeed, it should prevent pressure up the middle, giving Cousins a better chance to attack downfield. It’s also not out of the question that Bradbury could improve as his linemates get more comfortable in the offense.

During a recent appearance on SKOR North’s “Before We Die” podcast, The Athletic’s Arif Hasan shared what he has seen from Bradbury during Minnesota’s training camp this year.

“Bradbury’s been having, in my eyes, a really disastrous camp for him. He’s never really had a great training camp, which is not a shock given how he’s played in the regular season. But this is perhaps the most disastrous it’s been for him.”

While the Vikings’ new regime has been correct about several decisions this year, their choice not to bring in a veteran offensive lineman with legitimate center experience to compete with Bradbury already looks like it’s coming back to bite them.

Minnesota’s other possibility at center appears to be Chris Reed, someone who has never taken a snap at the center position in an NFL regular season game.

To say this could turn into a big problem for the Vikings is a giant understatement as Minnesota doesn’t have much time to figure out who is going to be their starting center against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1.

Right now though, the answer to their problem is seeming less and less likely that it will be Bradbury.

I make reference to this PFF study from Eric Eager frequently, but it’s worth mentioning again. The study found that the performance of the third-best lineman had the most significant impact on expected points added (EPA). The performance of the second- and fourth-best offensive lineman had a bigger impact on success than the best offensive lineman’s performance. Of course having an elite offensive lineman is additive to a team, but the statistics show that one offensive lineman can be schemed around. Defensive linemen can be moved, blitzes can flip to the opposite side, and the other offensive linemen need to step up.

This also leaves the door open for possible improvement from Bradbury. The center is entering his fourth season and, based on history, could hypothetically find a new form. However, PFF posits one of the reasons it takes so long for offensive linemen is they need time to physically mature to dominate weaker opponents as they often did in college. But Bradbury has continued to struggle with big defensive linemen. Bradbury was small coming out of college and he is still small, especially in arm size. It’s an issue he may not be able to correct.

The Vikings could still use their roughly $10 million in cap space, according to OverTheCap, to address one of these issues. The only one that makes sense is finding a replacement for Bradbury. The team seems more open to that possibility than they did earlier in the offseason when O’Connell showered him with compliments and threw his endorsement behind him.

But with the current crop of free agents, there’s no guarantee it’s fixing the position. JC Tretter has long been the one fans look to and for good reason. Tretter boasted the fifth-best pressure rate among centers (1.79 percent) and allowed only one sack last season. He’s also one of the least-volatile offensive linemen, a recent PFF study found. That level of consistency would be welcomed. However, if the Vikings aren’t the only ones with center needs they could get outbid.

Minnesota could also throw numbers at the position as they did for guard, but that process would need to start now. The season is now just a month away and the likelihood major change happens gets slimmer every day. It could mean the Vikings are in store for another rocky season up front.

Same as it ever was? If anything goes wrong, that will probably be the case.