Bradbury Analysis - Will Year 3 Prove to be a Turning Point?
Jul 20, 2021 19:40:36 GMT -6
Funkytown, Danchat, and 4 more like this
Post by Uncle on Jul 20, 2021 19:40:36 GMT -6
There seems to be a general consensus among Vikings fans that the 2021 Vikings OL will improve over recent years with the 2021 draft picks of Darrisaw and Davis, continued improvement from O'Neill at RT and an improvement on the overall left-side with Ezra moving to LG. While I contend that the overall left side of the OL will be an improvement considering the downturn in LT play from Reiff's 2020 play to the combo of Hill/Darrisaw could be negated by Ezra's significant improvement at LG over Dozier and O'Neill "should" get better going into Year 4, that leaves the OC and RG spots as potential weaknesses on the OL. And if you consider that RG is likely to be the weakest of those two spots with Dozier in the driver's seat to start entering Training Camp and the Vikings propensity not to play rookies too early, Bradbury will have to take his pass-blocking up another level if the Vikings interior will improve in 2021.
Last month, Luke Braun wrote an article on Zone Coverage (here - link) that suggested "fans should be higher on Bradbury" because, "His reach blocking ability, and general agility in space, already provide a ton of utility to the Vikings. Bradbury doesn’t need to improve to be the justified starter. There certainly is room to grow, but he’s already an acceptable center, if not an exciting one. Everything more is house money."
In my opinion, I believe it's reasonable to suggest that given his 1st Rd draft position, Bradbury "should" be better and farther along with his development than what we've seen on the field, but is there any data or analysis to determine if Year 3 will be any different for Bradbury?
To do that, I think a reasonable analysis to perform would be to analyze recent OC's drafted in Rounds 1 through 3 (ie, OC's who are more likely to see significant snaps) and look at their PFF grades from Year 1 to Year 3 to see if there was any significant improvement by Year 3. Since we need to see the first 3 years of play, the latest we can go is players drafted in 2018, and we'll start from 2008 to get 10 years of data for a decent sample size.
Here are the OC's drafted in Rounds 1-3 from 2008 to 2018 and their PFF run-blocking (RB) and pass-blocking (PB) grades per year in Years 1 through 3 only....this color denotes the Year in which the player significantly improved the most
Mike Pollak - Rd 2, 2008 Alex Mack - Rd 1, 2009 Eric Wood - Rd 1, 2009
Year 1: RB-68.6, PB-63.3 Year 1: RB-82.8, PB-81.2 Year 1: RB-65.9, PB-69.4
*Year 2: RB-56.7, PB-62.5 Year 2: RB-74.7, PB-78.9 Year 2: RB-72.0, PB-67.3
Year 3: RB-69.7, PB-70.2 Year 3: RB-69.0, PB-83.5 Year 3: RB-73.2, PB-83.3
Max Unger - Rd 2, 2009 A Caldwell - Rd 3, 2009 Maurkice Pouncey - Rd 1, 2010
Year 1: RB-63.6, PB-81.3 Year 1: RB-71.7, PB-69.4 Year 1: RB-66.6, PB-65.5
*Year 2: RB-47.8, PB-82.9 Year 2: RB-73.9, PB-69.3 Year 2: RB-56.9, PB-73.7
Year 3: RB-70.5, PB-86.7 *Year 3: RB-77.7, PB-69.7 Year 3: RB-75.2, PB-72.3
J.D. Walton - Rd 3, 2010 S. Wisniewski - Rd 2, 2011 T Frederick - Rd 1, 2013
Year 1: RB-64.0, PB-64.5 Year 1: RB-68.8, PB-73.9 Year 1: RB-91.5, PB-69.4
Year 2: RB-52.6, PB-64.2 Year 2: RB-59.3, PB-84.8 Year 2: RB-84.5, PB-79.9
Year 3: RB-72.3, PB-84.1 Year 3: RB-76.4, PB-82.3 Year 3: RB-78.6, PB-84.8
Weston Richburg - Rd 2, 2014 Travis Swanson - Rd 3, 2014
Year 1: RB-58.6, PB-69.8 Year 1: RB-48.3, PB-61.6
Year 2: RB-78.1, PB-87.5 Year 2: RB-61.0, PB-56.7
Year 3: RB-72.5, PB-86.0 Year 3: RB-68.9, PB-79.2
Ali Marpet - Rd 2, 2015 Ryan Kelly - Rd 1, 2016 G Glasgow - Rd 3, 2016
Year 1: RB-79.6, PB-64.8 Year 1: RB-68.5, PB-80.2 Year 1: RB-54.6, PB-62.0
Year 2: RB-82.9, PB-78.5 Year 2: RB-62.7, PB-50.2 Year 2: RB-66.3, PB-71.8
Year 3: RB-86.3, PB-73.9 Year 3: RB-72.9, PB-74.3 Year 3: RB-70.4, PB-73.8
Pat Elflein - Rd 3, 2017 Frank Ragnow - Rd 1, 2018 Austin Corbett - Rd 2, 2018
Year 1: RB-65.2, PB-65.4 Year 1: RB-68.2, PB-57.1 *Year 1: RB-55.0, PB-69.9
Year 2: RB-44.3, PB-44.3 Year 2: RB-78.2, PB-70.2 Year 2: RB-52.0, PB-61.6
Year 3: RB-67.6, PB-51.3 Year 3: RB-80.9, PB-74.8 Year 3: RB-73.4, PB-60.0
James Daniels - Rd 2, 2018 Mason Cole - Rd 3, 2018
Year 1: RB-66.1, PB-69.9 Year 1: RB-59.5, PB-41.9
Year 2: RB-65.3, PB-72.6 *Year 2: RB-59.1, PB-63.3
Year 3: RB-71.0, PB-54.4 Year 3: RB-62.9, PB-54.4
*denotes a year in which player didn't play "significant" snaps, but enough in other years to count in sample size
Parameters used to get sample size:
- OC's drafted in Rd 1 through 3 from 2008 to 2018 using Draft History.com (link)
- To get a better apples-to-apples comparison to Bradbury since he's played nearly all the OC snaps in Years 1 and 2, I filtered out those OC's who didn't play significant snaps in those years (ie, Rodney Hudson was drafted in Rd 2 in 2011, but only played 133 and 183 snaps in his first 2 years, so he's an example of a player that was excluded from the analysis).
- To determine if a player had "significant" snaps in Years 1 & 2, I used PFF's rankings, which only ranks players that have "at least 20% of the league-highest volume", so if you aren't ranked by PFF, you're not playing "significant" snaps
- I also realize that not all the players sampled above have played OC for those first 3 years (ie, Austin Corbett played both LG and RG in '19 and '20 respectively). Since those that didn't play OC 100% of time still played interior OL positions, I left them in because their scores are still relevant in terms of trying to determine significant improvement from Year 1 to Year 3.
Conclusions:
- 5 out of 19 (26%) players had their best year in Year 1 (ie, Pat Elflein)
- 4 out of 19 (21%) players had significantly improved by Year 2 (ie, Frank Ragnow)
- 8 out of 19 (42%) players had significantly improved by Year 3 (ie, Maurkice Pouncey)
- 2 out of 19 (11%) players didn't really improve at all over their first 3 years in league (ie, Mason Cole)
- Of those 8 players that improved significantly in Year 3, 7 of them were drafted in 2014 or prior and only 1 (A Corbett) has done so recently
- In terms of pass-blocking (Bradbury's weakness), 13 out of 19 (68%) players improved their pass-blocking PFF grades by at least 5 pts form Year 1 to Year 3, but again, most of the players that fall into this category were players from 2008-2014
I think there's good and not-so-good takeaway from the analysis. On the good side, 42% of the OC's drafted recently that have played significant snaps in their first 3 years have shown improvement in Year 3, and nearly 70% have improved their pass-blocking grades by a decent amount from Year 1 to Year 3. On the downside, more players have either shown they "have it" by Year 2 or not at all, and that trend has only increased since 2015, which could indicate that we've seen the "best" of Bradbury in the NFL, and the interior of the Vikings OL - particularly the OC/RG positions - could struggle in 2021.
Last month, Luke Braun wrote an article on Zone Coverage (here - link) that suggested "fans should be higher on Bradbury" because, "His reach blocking ability, and general agility in space, already provide a ton of utility to the Vikings. Bradbury doesn’t need to improve to be the justified starter. There certainly is room to grow, but he’s already an acceptable center, if not an exciting one. Everything more is house money."
In my opinion, I believe it's reasonable to suggest that given his 1st Rd draft position, Bradbury "should" be better and farther along with his development than what we've seen on the field, but is there any data or analysis to determine if Year 3 will be any different for Bradbury?
To do that, I think a reasonable analysis to perform would be to analyze recent OC's drafted in Rounds 1 through 3 (ie, OC's who are more likely to see significant snaps) and look at their PFF grades from Year 1 to Year 3 to see if there was any significant improvement by Year 3. Since we need to see the first 3 years of play, the latest we can go is players drafted in 2018, and we'll start from 2008 to get 10 years of data for a decent sample size.
Here are the OC's drafted in Rounds 1-3 from 2008 to 2018 and their PFF run-blocking (RB) and pass-blocking (PB) grades per year in Years 1 through 3 only....this color denotes the Year in which the player significantly improved the most
Mike Pollak - Rd 2, 2008 Alex Mack - Rd 1, 2009 Eric Wood - Rd 1, 2009
Year 1: RB-68.6, PB-63.3 Year 1: RB-82.8, PB-81.2 Year 1: RB-65.9, PB-69.4
*Year 2: RB-56.7, PB-62.5 Year 2: RB-74.7, PB-78.9 Year 2: RB-72.0, PB-67.3
Year 3: RB-69.7, PB-70.2 Year 3: RB-69.0, PB-83.5 Year 3: RB-73.2, PB-83.3
Max Unger - Rd 2, 2009 A Caldwell - Rd 3, 2009 Maurkice Pouncey - Rd 1, 2010
Year 1: RB-63.6, PB-81.3 Year 1: RB-71.7, PB-69.4 Year 1: RB-66.6, PB-65.5
*Year 2: RB-47.8, PB-82.9 Year 2: RB-73.9, PB-69.3 Year 2: RB-56.9, PB-73.7
Year 3: RB-70.5, PB-86.7 *Year 3: RB-77.7, PB-69.7 Year 3: RB-75.2, PB-72.3
J.D. Walton - Rd 3, 2010 S. Wisniewski - Rd 2, 2011 T Frederick - Rd 1, 2013
Year 1: RB-64.0, PB-64.5 Year 1: RB-68.8, PB-73.9 Year 1: RB-91.5, PB-69.4
Year 2: RB-52.6, PB-64.2 Year 2: RB-59.3, PB-84.8 Year 2: RB-84.5, PB-79.9
Year 3: RB-72.3, PB-84.1 Year 3: RB-76.4, PB-82.3 Year 3: RB-78.6, PB-84.8
Weston Richburg - Rd 2, 2014 Travis Swanson - Rd 3, 2014
Year 1: RB-58.6, PB-69.8 Year 1: RB-48.3, PB-61.6
Year 2: RB-78.1, PB-87.5 Year 2: RB-61.0, PB-56.7
Year 3: RB-72.5, PB-86.0 Year 3: RB-68.9, PB-79.2
Ali Marpet - Rd 2, 2015 Ryan Kelly - Rd 1, 2016 G Glasgow - Rd 3, 2016
Year 1: RB-79.6, PB-64.8 Year 1: RB-68.5, PB-80.2 Year 1: RB-54.6, PB-62.0
Year 2: RB-82.9, PB-78.5 Year 2: RB-62.7, PB-50.2 Year 2: RB-66.3, PB-71.8
Year 3: RB-86.3, PB-73.9 Year 3: RB-72.9, PB-74.3 Year 3: RB-70.4, PB-73.8
Pat Elflein - Rd 3, 2017 Frank Ragnow - Rd 1, 2018 Austin Corbett - Rd 2, 2018
Year 1: RB-65.2, PB-65.4 Year 1: RB-68.2, PB-57.1 *Year 1: RB-55.0, PB-69.9
Year 2: RB-44.3, PB-44.3 Year 2: RB-78.2, PB-70.2 Year 2: RB-52.0, PB-61.6
Year 3: RB-67.6, PB-51.3 Year 3: RB-80.9, PB-74.8 Year 3: RB-73.4, PB-60.0
James Daniels - Rd 2, 2018 Mason Cole - Rd 3, 2018
Year 1: RB-66.1, PB-69.9 Year 1: RB-59.5, PB-41.9
Year 2: RB-65.3, PB-72.6 *Year 2: RB-59.1, PB-63.3
Year 3: RB-71.0, PB-54.4 Year 3: RB-62.9, PB-54.4
*denotes a year in which player didn't play "significant" snaps, but enough in other years to count in sample size
Parameters used to get sample size:
- OC's drafted in Rd 1 through 3 from 2008 to 2018 using Draft History.com (link)
- To get a better apples-to-apples comparison to Bradbury since he's played nearly all the OC snaps in Years 1 and 2, I filtered out those OC's who didn't play significant snaps in those years (ie, Rodney Hudson was drafted in Rd 2 in 2011, but only played 133 and 183 snaps in his first 2 years, so he's an example of a player that was excluded from the analysis).
- To determine if a player had "significant" snaps in Years 1 & 2, I used PFF's rankings, which only ranks players that have "at least 20% of the league-highest volume", so if you aren't ranked by PFF, you're not playing "significant" snaps
- I also realize that not all the players sampled above have played OC for those first 3 years (ie, Austin Corbett played both LG and RG in '19 and '20 respectively). Since those that didn't play OC 100% of time still played interior OL positions, I left them in because their scores are still relevant in terms of trying to determine significant improvement from Year 1 to Year 3.
Conclusions:
- 5 out of 19 (26%) players had their best year in Year 1 (ie, Pat Elflein)
- 4 out of 19 (21%) players had significantly improved by Year 2 (ie, Frank Ragnow)
- 8 out of 19 (42%) players had significantly improved by Year 3 (ie, Maurkice Pouncey)
- 2 out of 19 (11%) players didn't really improve at all over their first 3 years in league (ie, Mason Cole)
- Of those 8 players that improved significantly in Year 3, 7 of them were drafted in 2014 or prior and only 1 (A Corbett) has done so recently
- In terms of pass-blocking (Bradbury's weakness), 13 out of 19 (68%) players improved their pass-blocking PFF grades by at least 5 pts form Year 1 to Year 3, but again, most of the players that fall into this category were players from 2008-2014
I think there's good and not-so-good takeaway from the analysis. On the good side, 42% of the OC's drafted recently that have played significant snaps in their first 3 years have shown improvement in Year 3, and nearly 70% have improved their pass-blocking grades by a decent amount from Year 1 to Year 3. On the downside, more players have either shown they "have it" by Year 2 or not at all, and that trend has only increased since 2015, which could indicate that we've seen the "best" of Bradbury in the NFL, and the interior of the Vikings OL - particularly the OC/RG positions - could struggle in 2021.
... and neither is this Chris guy.