[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes


Apr 20, 2022 15:09:10 GMT -6 23 Replies
A really good question was asked in response to the Run it Back! post I made: How many coaching changes have resulted in a significant change to team performance?  That post suggested the team needed to improve by 6 PPG over the field.

To answer this, I loaded the franchise history for teams back to 1970 (same time frame as that article). Again, this is using the same PPG advantage as the Run it Back! post. Here is what I found:

I counted 319 coaching changes since 1970.  

If there was a mid-season coaching change, I didn't count that (that's a train-wreck, not a coaching change).  The change is attributed to the first year of the new coach.

There were some huge swings in the early decades of the NFL, so I also filtered to recent changes: 
Recent = anything since 2000



Total coaching changes:  319
Recent coaching changes: 140

Total coaching changes that corresponded with a +6 or greater change: 90 (28% of all changes)
Recent coaching changes that corresponded with a +6 or greater change: 37 (26%)

Total coaching changes with a huge gain, +10 or more: 33 (10%)
Recent coaching changes with a huge gain, +10 or more: 20 (14%)

Total changes that showed some improvement (+1 or better): 181 (57%)
Recent changes that showed some improvement (+1 or better): 81 (58%)

Average impact of all changes: +1.98
Average impact of recent changes: +2.45

Vikings' coaching changes: 8 (remember, I skipped mid-year changes)
Vikings' coaching changes with +6 or greater impact: 3

- 1985: +12.2
- 1986: +8.6 (that's right, back-to-back years. Les Steckel's 1984 Vikings set a really low bar)
- 1992: +8.1

Some changes to be in awe of and give the team hope:

Matt Nagy's 2018 Bears: +12.1
Frank Reich's 2018 Colts: +14.4
Doug Marrone's 2017 Jaguars: +14.4
Sean McVay's 2017 Rams: +19.9
Andy Reid's 2013 Chiefs: +21.1

Some cautionary tales for the doomers:

Vance Joseph's 2017 Broncos: -8.1
Marc Trestman's 2013 Bears: -8.2
Steve Wilks' 2018 Cardinals: -8.4
Ken Whisenhunt's 2014 Titans: -10.3
Raheem Morris' 2009 Bucs: -12.1

And for bonus fun: the "pointlessness award" goes to Al Groh's 2000 Jets: started at 0, moved to 0 for a net change of 0. Groh was fired after one year; he never had a chance to Groh on anyone.

How are we feeling, Vikings fans? This piece change anything for you?

[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes

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Purple Pain: I'll have the Pick 6 thread up tonight for Wild Card Weekend! Jan 10, 2024 12:08:58 GMT -6
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beckmt: Where are the totals for the wild card weekend. Jan 18, 2024 20:49:24 GMT -6
Purple Pain: Pick 6 Playoffs Edition for Championship Weekend: purplepainforums.com/thread/7572/pick-playoffs-edition-championship-weekend Jan 25, 2024 11:02:04 GMT -6
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salamander: Not feeling good unless we can find a QB. Haven't had a great one in a looooooong time. Feb 22, 2024 13:43:06 GMT -6
Reignman: March 11th, 2024 will live in history as Kirk Cousins Independence Day *cheerleader* Mar 11, 2024 16:34:20 GMT -6
salbrecht: Why can Pittsburg sign Russel Wilson fo 1.2 million and we get Sam Darnold for 10 million?? Mar 13, 2024 18:31:25 GMT -6
Reignman: when you put it like that, it's a real head scratcher, but this franchise is all about their precious culture, so I imagine they passed on a guy like Russ over something silly like that ... Darnold will have a big smile when he's throwing all the INT's Mar 14, 2024 17:44:47 GMT -6
shandman: If I am NE, I seriously consider getting Justin Fields and roll with Fields/Brisset this year.

For Vikings to actually pull this off they probably have to trade #11, #23 and 2025 first rounder. In return, they hopefully get #3 overall this year and NE's
Mar 15, 2024 19:29:01 GMT -6
glenwo2: Saying that Darnold will have a big smile when he's throwing all the INT's is quite the Take, Reignman. Mar 16, 2024 20:17:05 GMT -6
Nemesis: Good grief....first I hear....and then I hear...I think I better go back to being gone. *woot* ??? Mar 22, 2024 15:24:17 GMT -6
Norseman: You were gone? Mar 22, 2024 22:30:40 GMT -6
Nemesis: I'm a long gone daddy www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtpe6_2nCts Mar 23, 2024 9:39:00 GMT -6
glenwo2: Norseman is Nemesis' Daddy! You heard it here first, folks. Mar 25, 2024 12:26:17 GMT -6
glenwo2: I'm kidding of course, Nemesis. :) Mar 25, 2024 12:27:05 GMT -6
Norseman: How do you know that it isn't true? Mar 25, 2024 14:28:23 GMT -6
glenwo2: Because Nemesis is the Mod and I'm just a punk rookie acting like a goofball. Mar 25, 2024 16:57:35 GMT -6
Nemesis: Plus glenwo2 is probably my dad, he just likes messing with me from the beyond. Mar 26, 2024 17:13:40 GMT -6
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