[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes


Apr 20, 2022 15:09:10 GMT -6 23 Replies
A really good question was asked in response to the Run it Back! post I made: How many coaching changes have resulted in a significant change to team performance?  That post suggested the team needed to improve by 6 PPG over the field.

To answer this, I loaded the franchise history for teams back to 1970 (same time frame as that article). Again, this is using the same PPG advantage as the Run it Back! post. Here is what I found:

I counted 319 coaching changes since 1970.  

If there was a mid-season coaching change, I didn't count that (that's a train-wreck, not a coaching change).  The change is attributed to the first year of the new coach.

There were some huge swings in the early decades of the NFL, so I also filtered to recent changes: 
Recent = anything since 2000



Total coaching changes:  319
Recent coaching changes: 140

Total coaching changes that corresponded with a +6 or greater change: 90 (28% of all changes)
Recent coaching changes that corresponded with a +6 or greater change: 37 (26%)

Total coaching changes with a huge gain, +10 or more: 33 (10%)
Recent coaching changes with a huge gain, +10 or more: 20 (14%)

Total changes that showed some improvement (+1 or better): 181 (57%)
Recent changes that showed some improvement (+1 or better): 81 (58%)

Average impact of all changes: +1.98
Average impact of recent changes: +2.45

Vikings' coaching changes: 8 (remember, I skipped mid-year changes)
Vikings' coaching changes with +6 or greater impact: 3

- 1985: +12.2
- 1986: +8.6 (that's right, back-to-back years. Les Steckel's 1984 Vikings set a really low bar)
- 1992: +8.1

Some changes to be in awe of and give the team hope:

Matt Nagy's 2018 Bears: +12.1
Frank Reich's 2018 Colts: +14.4
Doug Marrone's 2017 Jaguars: +14.4
Sean McVay's 2017 Rams: +19.9
Andy Reid's 2013 Chiefs: +21.1

Some cautionary tales for the doomers:

Vance Joseph's 2017 Broncos: -8.1
Marc Trestman's 2013 Bears: -8.2
Steve Wilks' 2018 Cardinals: -8.4
Ken Whisenhunt's 2014 Titans: -10.3
Raheem Morris' 2009 Bucs: -12.1

And for bonus fun: the "pointlessness award" goes to Al Groh's 2000 Jets: started at 0, moved to 0 for a net change of 0. Groh was fired after one year; he never had a chance to Groh on anyone.

How are we feeling, Vikings fans? This piece change anything for you?

[OC] Historical Impact of Coaching Changes

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steve: Aaron Jones hurt? Oct 6, 2024 8:29:05 GMT -6
Purple Pain: Pick 6 for Week 6: purplepainforums.com/thread/8045/purple-pains-pick-6-week Oct 8, 2024 10:40:12 GMT -6
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Purple Pain: Pick 6 for Week 7: purplepainforums.com/thread/8064/purple-pains-pick-6-week Oct 15, 2024 9:51:37 GMT -6
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Purple Pain: Purple Pain's Pick 6 for Week 9: purplepainforums.com/thread/8109/purple-pains-pick-6-week Oct 29, 2024 9:33:03 GMT -6
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vikingsjason1234: Nice post! Nov 14, 2024 15:26:08 GMT -6
Purple Pain: Purple Pain's Pick 6 for Week 12: purplepainforums.com/thread/8166/purple-pains-pick-week-12 Nov 19, 2024 10:21:55 GMT -6
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