Running it back: Pro or Con

I think it is a mistake to essentially run it back again with our core. A lot of the core we are talking about are getting older and not likely to be improving on their own. We also are in a worse spot salary cap wise than when this all started which also makes it tougher than it should have been 4 years back. I don't have any ill will toward the players or anything like that but I do not think we win a SB with said core which should be the main focus. I also think whether or not you wanted Kirk initially that the last 4 years here should be telling. He isn't the type that is going to carry a less than perfect roster. I think no matter what people think direction wise we can admit it isn't a perfect roster next to Kirk.

I also think it puts a lot of pressure on this new coach. You are right it is sort of an experiment but if we don't have a top 5 offense then this coach is the same "failure" as the last one we ran out? I am not sure people will just say well I was wrong about Zimmer and it's totally alright we spent a 5th/6th year on this experiment just to find that out. Fans will be angry just like they were when it didn't work previously (and probably moreso since it was a choice to triple down like this when we didn't have to). They have put themselves in a very tough spot of needing immediate success largely with a core that hasn't been having much of it.

We do have an easier schedule along with NFC seeming down. We hopefully can have better healthy. We can also hope KOC is much better at improving this offense to where it should be. So it isn't like it is impossible that this all works out to some extent. I don't think a lot of people will consider a 10-7 season a success given that though expectations are going to remain very high by many. That's about where I expect us to land and would much prefer a different route. If they do worse than that it's going to be a lot more fighting next offseason and the new regime will be taking more heat.

It is a mistake. The Vikings will struggle again. The defense isn't ready to contend, and the offense is no better than last year either. We already know who Cousins is, and once again there's a new OC, now new management altogether. The declining vets will drop off a cliff sooner or later, and frankly Harrison Smith is done and looked done last year. Thielen will be next. Cook also looks to have lost a step.

They should be giving up on 2022 and rebuild for 2023 and beyond. This is a lost season.

O'Connor?

The premise is this new HC who's never been a HC before will elevate the squad in ways Mike Zimmer never could.   My question is, when you don't tear it down and reset at the beginning of a new GM/HC regime and give both guys time to get their feet wet before sticking them with your "super competitive" philosophy, how much time do they subsequently get if they have to waste the first 2 years on the same old sh*t that didn't work before?   We better hope O'Connell is an unrecognized miracle worker because that's what this is going to take.

Or maybe we are getting another HC/GM combo with unlimited time to keep achieving mediocrity like the dynamic duo that just got (finally!) fired?   The Wilfs could end up owning this team for 30 years without so much as a SB appearance let alone a title at the rate they are going.  Who are they kidding besides themselves?

The only thing the Vikings really delayed and missed out on was some capital on Kirk. Im guessing at the very least Indy wouldve taken him. I wouldve shipped Kirk off and started this thing over, but the more I look at the contracts and options this team could go in, I wouldnt say its a big mistake that puts us in trouble one way or the other. I would say this is more of a trial year for Kirk. Yes I know hes what 10 years in the league what more could you get out of him. But lets be real, I cant think of a more toxic environment he was in here with Zim. Guy never wanted him from day 1.

Im expecting to see an offense and Kirk better than we have ever seen in 4 years, which should help. But my main concern with this team and the main reason I would've moved on from Kirk is the defense. Zadarious Smith and Hunter if healthy could be a huge step in the right direction. Well see how this plays out, but getting Z Smith makes the Kirk extension okay in my books. Now hopefully our new coaches could work some magic in the CB room and we may actually have something here. Im not getting my hopes up like last year but it wouldnt surprise me to see a Viking team that competes in the NFC this year.

If you're going to do a pro and con analysis of this scientific test, it is worth defining what you think your control sample from 2021 is:

Offense
1) Zimmer had a better system than most NFL coaches. His hands off approach allowed up and coming offensive coordinators to innovate and his inputs were generally helpful.

2) Zimmer had a league average system. Most other teams would be about as successful with the Vikings players.

3) Zimmer’s approach on offense held the team back. Klint Kubiak was outmatched by more seasoned coaches and game planning / play calling was too conservative.

Based on which of those 3 options you think is reality, what does OConnell need to do to match or exceed Zimmer with a similar core of players?

Defense
1) Zimmer was a strong defensive coach, poor performance in 2021 was due to injuries and poor talent. Without Zimmer, all those 1 score games would have been blowout losses.

2) Zimmer’s system was about average and 2021 performance = 2021 talent.

3) Zimmer did not use players correctly, could not adapt to injuries and was ineffective developing players. His system was too complicated for new players to learn.

Again, where did Zimmer fall and what does OConnell need to do to improve?

I think the overall pro / con argument comes down to those two arguments. If you see significant upside in the coaching change, then wholsale player changes add risk with limited benefit. If you see little to no upside in the coaching change, then you need to change something else.

Pro.

Again, if you believe in this GM and HC, then you believe in them. End of discussion.

But, I would like to believe it's easier to get to "serious contender" status from "competitive rebuild" compared to a complete rebuild. Oftentimes, you take the talent over the draft picks. Some suggested unloading our aging veterans for middle to late-round draft picks was the best choice, but, was it? I thought Vikings fans hated late-rounders? And what good would having the extra salary do? So we can spend it in 2023 and 2024 in free agency for guys looking for their second and third contracts? How is that any different than what we're doing now? You can't build entirely through the draft, and you can't build entirely through free agency. You have to have a balanced approach, and one that spreads over a couple of years.

But what happens if the new regime blows it all up, but misses on quarterback? Unrealistic, right? What about any early misses? Those never happen either! Now that you've unloaded most of your assets, you're not only losing, but with no clear path forward other than firing your GM and HC. Yay? I understand people don't like it, but it does seem like the smarter route, especially for the new regime. Other than what Belichick and Brady did, there have been different routes that worked. Fans need to remember that. 

It's a different conversation if this was 2023 and we're picking in the top 5 or something. Maybe this offseason wasn't the best one to start over in? Regardless, it's a tough sell to blow it all up and hope you suck bad enough to land a top quarterback in 2023. Even a bad team with good coaching should win 5-6 games with our schedule. But I was promised much better coaching, so do we miss out on the top quarterback in that scenario too? But let's also consider all of the first-round quarterbacks who bust. So many moving parts, but I like that we're at least trying to stay competitive. All the "coaching deficiencies" and close games, improve on the margins and let's go!

It can work:

Zone Coverage: Do Competitive Rebuilds Work? by Rob Searles

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Link:

zonecoverage.com/2022/minnesota-vikings-news/do-competitive-rebuilds-work/

Sure. Go ahead. :)