[OC] Let's Play Pay Kirk Cousins
Jan 28, 2022 21:42:35 GMT -6
Reignman, Funkytown, and 1 more like this
Post by MidwinterViking on Jan 28, 2022 21:42:35 GMT -6
I'm of the opinion that extending Cousins is more likely than trading him. If I were handicapping what will happen, I would say the odds are: 70% Extend, 25% Trade, 5% play out current deal.
There are two major factors that cause Cousins 2022 salary cap hit to be so high.
1) The Vikings purchases $20M in cap space for the 2022 season (off of Cousins original 2018 contract), $10M they pay for in 2022.
2) His extension that started in 2021 had a relatively large change in base salary from 2021 to 2022 ($21M > $35M). I believe this was done on purpose to force a decision on his contract this offseason.
When figuring out what the Vikings will do, I'm going to use 2021 as a baseline. Cousins' cap hit was $31M, pretty close to his extension AAV of $33M. That $31M hit, while high, didn't prevent the team from doing things like signing Patrick Peterson & Dalvin Tomlinson (not top of the market, but good money free agents), or extending Brian O'Niell. Taken as a % of the $182.5M salary cap, $31M is 17% of the salary cap. (for reference $45M / $208.2M Cap = 21% of salary cap). So I'm going to use 17% as a kind of maximum possible number where the team can still make moves and keep their start players.
When considering an extension for Cousins, there are a few things to keep in mind:
1) Salary cap goes up, roster size stays the same. So players, especially the highest paid ones, will always see salaries increase.
2) The Vikings have two major tools to use to change the cap charges:
- How much they want to reduce that $45M hit (more cap space now = harder decisions later)
- How much does the contract scale up with cheap years with more expensive years later (that may or may not be guaranteed)
Here is one possible way that the Vikings extend Cousins in a way that recognizes Reality #1 (salaries always go up), while still keeping their salary below that 17%:
That's a 3 year, $105M extension that costs less than the 2021% of salary cap in every year of the contract. This is done by using a lower year over year increase and converting only $16M/$35M 2022 base salary.
Do I think this is the right value for Cousins? Not really, I think the AAV of $35M is a bit high; Spotrac suggests his value is $33.4M, I like that more. Would this contract cripple the Vikings even though it is higher than suggested market value? No, it's workable.
I'm sure there are other ways to manipulate this, so here is a link to a calculator so you can make up your own payment:
Cousins Contract Simulator
Go ahead and punch in what you want! Pay him $2 a year + free coffee from the TCO vending machine (well, the vending machine at the gas station across the street, at least).
Edit: Image edited for accuracy
There are two major factors that cause Cousins 2022 salary cap hit to be so high.
1) The Vikings purchases $20M in cap space for the 2022 season (off of Cousins original 2018 contract), $10M they pay for in 2022.
2) His extension that started in 2021 had a relatively large change in base salary from 2021 to 2022 ($21M > $35M). I believe this was done on purpose to force a decision on his contract this offseason.
When figuring out what the Vikings will do, I'm going to use 2021 as a baseline. Cousins' cap hit was $31M, pretty close to his extension AAV of $33M. That $31M hit, while high, didn't prevent the team from doing things like signing Patrick Peterson & Dalvin Tomlinson (not top of the market, but good money free agents), or extending Brian O'Niell. Taken as a % of the $182.5M salary cap, $31M is 17% of the salary cap. (for reference $45M / $208.2M Cap = 21% of salary cap). So I'm going to use 17% as a kind of maximum possible number where the team can still make moves and keep their start players.
When considering an extension for Cousins, there are a few things to keep in mind:
1) Salary cap goes up, roster size stays the same. So players, especially the highest paid ones, will always see salaries increase.
2) The Vikings have two major tools to use to change the cap charges:
- How much they want to reduce that $45M hit (more cap space now = harder decisions later)
- How much does the contract scale up with cheap years with more expensive years later (that may or may not be guaranteed)
Here is one possible way that the Vikings extend Cousins in a way that recognizes Reality #1 (salaries always go up), while still keeping their salary below that 17%:
That's a 3 year, $105M extension that costs less than the 2021% of salary cap in every year of the contract. This is done by using a lower year over year increase and converting only $16M/$35M 2022 base salary.
Do I think this is the right value for Cousins? Not really, I think the AAV of $35M is a bit high; Spotrac suggests his value is $33.4M, I like that more. Would this contract cripple the Vikings even though it is higher than suggested market value? No, it's workable.
I'm sure there are other ways to manipulate this, so here is a link to a calculator so you can make up your own payment:
Cousins Contract Simulator
Go ahead and punch in what you want! Pay him $2 a year + free coffee from the TCO vending machine (well, the vending machine at the gas station across the street, at least).
Edit: Image edited for accuracy
... and neither is this Chris guy.
