Post by MidwinterViking on Jan 29, 2022 13:16:35 GMT -6
If I were handicapping what will happen, I would say the odds are: 70% Extend, 25% Trade, 5% play out current deal.
There are two major factors that cause Cousins 2022 salary cap hit to be so high.
1) The Vikings purchases $20M in cap space for the 2022 season (off of Cousins original 2018 contract), $10M they pay for in 2022.
2) His extension that started in 2021 had a relatively large change in base salary from 2021 to 2022 ($21M > $35M). I believe this was done on purpose to force a decision on his contract this offseason.
I don't see the point of saving $20M from 2022 and spreading it to future years. We shouldn't be in 'Win Now' mode again in 2022, so why do exactly what Spielman would do?
That's a 3 year, $105M extension that costs less than the 2021% of salary cap in every year of the contract. This is done by using a lower year over year increase and converting only $16M/$35M 2022 base salary.
We shouldn't be in win now mode? So your starting point is the new coach and GM not trying to win as much as they can in their first year in a new role after the owners said "we expect to win". No way, they're going to come in and try to prove they know how to win.
Who is KAM going to bet his reputation on to play QB in 2022?
Let's say the Vikings really likes Malik Willis (I just picked a QB and he's a big athletic guy, maybe he's the next Mahomes). Why would they not do what the Chiefs did with Mahomes, the 49ers are doing with Lance, and the Packers are doing with Love? Keep the veteran until the rookie is ready to play. They can always trade Cousins next season. Adding the a future QB while the prior QB is still under contract makes much more sense than a suicide swap with no alternative.
The question on what Cousins will ask for is also a good one. There is a piece of information that I had to guess at, that is the salary cap will increase. If the Salary cap goes up by 9% per year instead of the 7% I used, then the numbers could get very high and the same principles would still apply. The Vikings could give Cousins a 4 year $152M contract ($38M/year) and still be below 17% cap hit in every year. The cap hits and ability to trade him depend much more on how much money they convert out of that $35M bonus.