[OC] Weekly Offensive and Defensive Drive Stats

Five weeks into the season, we have seen just about every type of game from the Minnesota Vikings. They have played in shootouts and defensive struggles. Games that were flashy and games that were ugly. And after about 30% of the season, they rank as a mid-pack team offensively and defensively.

“I think if we ever do get it synced up, we’ll be pretty darn good,” head coach Mike Zimmer said. “It’s so different because we’re playing their defense and we’re playing their offense. You’re going to have days like that where it’s not going to look as pretty on either side of the ball. You’ve just got to fight through it and hope that you do enough to get wins.”

So what do the numbers say about whether they’ll be able to get rolling and what they need to do in order to get there? Let’s have a look at 10 notable stats and what they tell us about who the Vikings are and where they’re going…

Vikings are 16th in offensive EPA
What it tells us: That the Vikings won’t get all that far if this keeps up

Expected Points Added tells us about performance versus situation and whether a team is over or under performing versus the amount of points they’re expected to produce on a drive in a given situation. The Vikings are dead-on average so far this year. The most comparable offenses to the Vikings are the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers. For context, the top six teams in offensive EPA in 2020 were Green Bay, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Tennessee, Buffalo and New Orleans. Basically, you are unlikely to get a seat at the table deep in the playoffs without an offense that plays at a high level of efficiency. Right now the Vikings aren’t there. Our next stat provides us with an area of improvement…

Vikings are 22nd in yards per pass attempt
What it tells us: Opponents have slowed their explosive passing game

Just 7.9% of Kirk Cousins’s pass attempts have traveled 20-plus yards, per PFF. Last year that number was 12.6% and he completed 28-of-65 for 841 yards. That’s part of the reason for his drop in yards per pass attempt this season. The Vikings have also been less successful in the short game, gaining 6.1 yards per throw versus 7.6 on passes between 0-10 yards in 2020. The quick game was strong against Arizona and Seattle but even mild improvements there won’t jolt the yards per attempt. They’ll need to find ways to overcome opposing defenses gameplanning to shut down Jefferson/Thielen deep in order to hit more throws downfield. Jefferson has three catches on eight deep targets. Last year he caught 14 of 24.

Vikings are sixth in EPA vs. pass, 30th vs. run
What it tells us: Even a slight improvement in run defense could be significant

Everyone wants to be No. 1 against the run and pass but if you were choosing which one to play well against in 2021, you’d easily pick being better at passing defense. By the numbers, per Pro-Football Reference, the Vikings’ poor run defense has cost them about 13 points over league average but the pass defense has been worth 23 points over average. Whether they can continue to play this well against the pass is yet to be seen. The last two weeks against Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff might not be representative of whether they can slow Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Stafford.

Some of the difference may need to be made up versus the run. The key factor to turning around the run defense will be Michael Pierce’s health.

38% of the Vikings’ pressure has come from the left tackle position
What it tells us: No time is too soon to play Christian Darrisaw

Only five tackles in the NFL have a lower Pass Blocking Efficiency rating than Rashod Hill per PFF and he’s tied for the fifth most pressures allowed. With the Vikings’ first-round pick getting into the mix Sunday, it’s a clear sign that they eventually want him to start. Bringing him along slowly isn’t really an option at this point since a huge chunk of the total pressure from opposing defenses is coming from one spot. If Darrisaw can hold his own, it could be a vast improvement over what they’ve gotten from the LT spot over the first five games.

Guards rank 30th and 35th out of 57
What it tells us: While not perfect, the guard play has improved

Nobody would mistake Ezra Cleveland and Oli Udoh for Will Shields and Alan Faneca but neither has been incompetent. Last year Dakota Dozier and Dru Samia were the second and sixth worst guards out of 92 players who either started or had part-time roles. Since 2017 when Joe Berger retired and Nick Easton got hurt, the Vikings have struggled mightily at that position. Even if five games does not guarantee they’ll be solid all year, we can say with some confidence that the guard play can be better than last year and possibly enough to keep Cousins out of the top five most pressured quarterbacks.

Vikings rank 32nd in average drive start
What it tells us: They are allowing long drives and the return game has offered very little

In terms of increasing their offensive output, the surrounding factors aren’t helping much. The Vikings have just 45 yards punt returning and average under 20 yards per kickoff return. Being a poor run defense has hurt them in the field position battle. The total point output from the opposing offense might not be boosted a ton by running effectively but opponents can hang onto the ball and pick up a few first downs before punting it away. Asking a Vikings offense that isn’t hitting on big plays to routinely drive the entire field isn’t ideal.

Everson Griffen ranks eighth in pass rush win rate at 22.2% (PFF)
What it tells us: Vikings shouldn’t worry too much about Griffen’s workload

Mike Zimmer said that the Vikings probably played Everson Griffen too much on Sunday against the Lions. Co-defensive coordinator Andre Patterson insisted last week that he’d be careful with his workload so he could perform over 17 games. Well, the way Griffen is playing, they may have to ride him as far as he will take them. The more work he’s gotten, the better he’s been. Griffen played 43 snaps against the Browns and 49 versus Detroit and posted a total of 11 pressures and three sacks in those two games. He has 16 pressures on the season — the next highest rusher not named Danielle Hunter has seven.

Danielle Hunter ranks fourth in QB pressures (PFF)
What is tells us: Hunter is in line for a massive pay day after this season

Speaking of Danielle Hunter, he’s been a monster this season. He’s the Vikings’ highest graded defensive player and leads the D-line in snap count. Where Hunter is particularly impressive is when he’s needed most. On “true pass sets,” which are straight dropback passes, he’s winning against the opposing tackle nearly 40% of the time, which is third in the NFL. If Hunter continues to play at this level — which he has throughout his career — the Vikings will be again sitting at the negotiating table across from their star pass rusher next offseason. This time, however, they’re less likely to get a team-friendly deal. But he’s showing why he was impossible to replace last year and worth a mega contract.

Justin Jefferson is the No. 2 graded receiver in the NFL and ranks 12th in targets
What it tells us: Jefferson needs more targets

Ranking in the top 15 in targets isn’t an affront to the Vikings’ star receiver but when Kirk Cousins targets Jefferson, he has a 131.1 QB rating. The interesting thing about his usage is that Jefferson only has six contested catch opportunities (with three catches). The league leader has 24 and 13 players have more than 10. Cousins is throwing his way when he’s schemed open and/or beats the coverage but he isn’t giving Jefferson many shots to rise up and make a play. It might be time to give him a few more shots at Mossing opposing corners.

Vikings have the lowest turnover percentage on offense and 28th on defense
What it tells us: That will probably change

When we talk about the “bounces,” some have gone the Vikings’ way this year and some have not. They had a kick go wide right against the Cardinals and they also had two other game-winning or game-tying kicks go in. They’ve been penalized 11 more times than their opponents but a key flag against the Seahawks turned their first win of the season. You might call the two running back fumbles late in Week 1 and Week 5 bad breaks but overall the turnover luck hasn’t gone either way. Cousins also had fumbles against Arizona and Seattle that bounced right back into his hands. Generally turnovers are tough to predict. With unsustainably low turnovers on offense and defense, one of those things could break loose soon or both… nobody knows.