What Coulda Been

1) What if Percy Harvin had stayed healthy (and content)?

Percy Harvin was a flash in the pan as an NFL star, but oh, what a flash it was.

Only in recent years have we learned the true extent of Harvin’s health difficulties, which ranged from severe migraines to debilitating anxiety. These conditions strained his relationships, made him look like a malcontent and prevented him from having longevity in the NFL. Ultimately they robbed the league of a talent that could have been transcendent.

The Vikings have a mostly great history of finding superb receivers late in the first round of the draft, and they landed Harvin at Pick 22, partly because of his perceived character concerns. He starred as a rookie on the Brett Favre-led Vikings, graded by Pro Football Focus as the No. 2 slot receiver in the game and the No. 7 receiver overall in 2009.

And for three and a half years, he remained that good, even though the Vikings floundered as a team in 2010-11. Harvin never registered a 1,000-yard season, but in short bursts he was magic. From 2009-12, Harvin:

…graded as a top five slot receiver three times.
…led all slot receivers in missed tackles forced twice.
…returned at least one kickoff for a touchdown each season.
…averaged 6.4 yards per attempt as a ball carrier.

He was small in stature but one of the toughest yards-after-catch receivers in the league, routinely bouncing off tacklers with his stocky frame that gave him uncanny balance. His first career touchdown game in Week 1 of his rookie season on a quick out from Favre, where Harvin dragged a defensive back across the goal line — a sign of things to come.

Until the midway point of the 2012 season, Harvin could’ve called himself a durable receiver, playing in 53 of a possible 56 games, even though chronic headaches were an issue. Then things abruptly unraveled. Harvin hurt his ankle in the team’s ninth game against Seattle amidst a potential Pro Bowl season. He was on pace for over 1,300 yards but would never see the field again as a member of the Vikings. Reports of a rift with player-friendly coach Leslie Frazier emerged as Harvin’s ankle never healed. Even before the 2012 season ended, speculation came out that the Vikings would prefer to trade Harvin rather than extend him.

Those are the type of reports you often hear when stars either want to escape horrible teams or are unhappy with their roles, but the 2012 Vikings (on paper) were on their way to the playoffs with a new coach, a young quarterback and a star running back — not to mention they were featuring Harvin abundantly in the offense. Things didn’t add up.

True to those reports, Harvin was traded to Seattle in 2013 for a first-round pick. It turned out to be a magnificent trade for Minnesota, who landed Xavier Rhodes with the pick, while Harvin missed virtually the entire regular season in Seattle and clashed with teammates. The Seahawks did get a nice little return on investment when Harvin returned a kickoff for a touchdown in the Super Bowl, but Harvin later described that season as one of the worst of his career.

A year-and-a-half after signing a six-year extension in Seattle, Harvin was traded to the New York Jets. Injuries plagued him thereafter as his career faded slowly over the next three seasons. He’s been out of football since 2016 and has revealed more details about his struggles with mental health and his dependence on marijuana to battle anxiety.

So what could’ve been with Harvin in Minnesota?

Almost any other player of Harvin’s talent would’ve received a lucrative extension following that 2012 season. Assuming Harvin had stayed healthy that year, he might’ve become one of the highest-paid receivers in football.

Let’s say he signs the same six-year extension in Minnesota that he signed in Seattle. Harvin could’ve played out that contract through 2018. As Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen emerged on rookie deals, Harvin would’ve been the WR3 that Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford, Case Keenum and Kirk Cousins never had in Mike Zimmer’s early seasons. He would be in the conversation with Julian Edelman and Wes Welker as the best slot receivers of the generation, provided he spent a decade in purple producing at a similar level.

Furthermore, his presence on the roster might’ve prevented the Vikings from making mistakes on drafting Cordarrelle Patterson and Laquon Treadwell (we’ll get to them soon) or paying big money to Greg Jennings and Mike Wallace.

The mercurial Harvin will always have a place in Vikings lore thanks to his tantalizing talent and unfulfilled expectations.

2) What if Randy Moss and Adrian Peterson could’ve overlapped longer?

I have to add the word “longer” on the end of the question because, yes, Moss and Peterson did share a team for four weeks.

The second incarnation of Moss in Minnesota was disastrous for myriad reasons, and on a 2010 team that seemed doomed to have the worst things happen to them, even a happy Moss might not have saved the season. Moss was already in decline at that point — something the Patriots evidently knew when they made Moss available for trade.

The real what-if is whether prime Moss could’ve teamed up with early-years Adrian Peterson.

Moss’s Vikings teams were pass-centric for obvious reasons, but their running games were all extremely efficient. In six of Moss’s first eight seasons as a Viking, Minnesota was top six in yards per attempt with a bevy of running backs including Onterrio Smith, Mewelde Moore and Michael Bennett. Let’s put it this way: There were no eight-man boxes against a Moss-fueled offense.

Imagine his impact on Peterson and vice versa if Moss wasn’t dealt in 2005.

Peterson was hardly deterred by heavy boxes in his first two seasons, but the Vikings passing game was largely non-existent with Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte at the helm. In 2007-08, they ranked 28th and 25th in passing yardage despite Peterson’s dominance. It’s surreal to imagine those teams’ potential with competent passing games.

The 2007 group was one win from the playoffs with no passing game at all. Bobby Wade led the team with 647 yards, while Moss was in New England setting the touchdown record with 23 TDs.

In 2008, the Vikings defense was top 10 by many measures and the running game almost exclusively carried the team to a 10-win season and a playoff appearance, where they would lose in the Wild Card round.

Perhaps the real missing piece to the equation was a good quarterback in those years. It’s tough to overthrow Moss, but Tarvaris Jackson might’ve figured out how. However, it’s reasonable to think that with Moss still around the Vikings would’ve gotten more out of the QB position.

3) What if Robert Smith hadn’t retired early?

Looking back, Robert Smith’s decision to retire early at age 28 might’ve been ahead of his time. Running backs that take beatings year after year are susceptible to long-term health concerns, and Smith — who dealt with a series of minor injuries and surgeries in his career — got out of the league without further jeopardizing his health. If made today, his decision would still be surprising but more understandable.

At the time, it was a stunner. Smith was expected to sign a handsome contract with the Vikings as an unrestricted free agent, but his February retirement just weeks after a playoff loss was reminiscent of Barry Sanders’ decision two years prior.

Smith was coming off his best season in 2000, a career-best 1,521-yard campaign in which the Vikings reached the NFC Championship Game for a second time in three seasons. It was his fourth straight 1,000-yard season as the team’s featured back. Smith hadn’t been in a true workhorse role until 1997, so in some ways it felt like he was just getting started. With peers like Emmitt Smith and Marshall Faulk still going strong deep into their careers at the same time, Robert Smith was thought to be on a similar trajectory.

Then there was the team element. It felt inevitable that the Vikings would win a Super Bowl with their current offensive makeup and coaching staff. Smith was a big part of that.

Maybe Smith was prescient in his decision. The Vikings scuffled through 2001 without him, fired Dennis Green and endured another bad season in 2002. Minnesota was forced to replace Smith with their first-round pick in 2001, taking Michael Bennett, who had trouble staying healthy in his five-year Vikings tenure. Moe Williams, Mewelde Moore and Onterrio Smith formed a nice rotation, though, while Bennett struggled to stay on the field.

Would Smith sticking around have changed the Vikings’ fate in the early 2000s? It’s fair to assume his retirement played a role in the decline, though wasn’t the exclusive reason. Him sticking around wouldn’t have prevented other departures that weakened the defense, but it might’ve prevented their 3-5 start that put the team behind the 8-ball. Minnesota had a non-existent running game early that season with six of the first eight games under 110 yards on the ground, and defenses honed in on Moss, who didn’t have a single 100-yard game.

It’s hard to fend off a rebuild that was probably overdue with an aging roster, but Smith’s sudden retirement probably expedited it.

4) What if the Vikings hadn’t drafted Troy Williamson and Laquon Treadwell?

I don’t think the proper question is to wonder whether Troy Williamson or Laquon Treadwell would’ve been good. You could ask the same about any number of highly drafted players. But could the Vikings had made better drafting decisions instead of wasting valuable capital on receivers that flopped?

Williamson was taken seventh overall as the heir apparent to Randy Moss. Just the hint of that expectation probably doomed Williamson from the start. He wasn’t overly productive at South Carolina, but the Vikings were enamored with his 4.3 speed. Even so, Williamson was probably a reach. It doesn’t look any better when you see the collection of Pro Bowler linebackers drafted behind Williamson in 2005: Demarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Thomas Davis and Derrick Johnson. Minnesota was linebacker needy and would end up taking Chad Greenway in the first round a year later.

If the Vikings had been looking to reach for a receiver, it should’ve been UAB’s Roddy White, who went 27th overall. It’s more likely, though, that if the Vikings had picked another receiver it would’ve been Mike Williams, who turned in a Treadwell-like career with the Detroit Lions.

Speaking of Treadwell, if his career ended today, he would be one of only 10 receivers since the turn of the century to be drafted in the first round and earn 750 or fewer yards in their career. That said, it’s hard to say that Treadwell was a reach based on most experts’ opinions with the 23rd overall pick, and it’s also difficult to immediately identify which player the Vikings should have taken in his place.

Michael Thomas comes to mind for most people, but it’s a stretch to say the Vikings confused the 23rd pick for the 47th pick. The next receiver taken after Treadwell was Sterling Shepard at No. 40, so it’s not like a team took the next Calvin Johnson one pick after Treadwell. Defensive tackles Kenny Clark and Chris Jones would’ve been available, but the Vikings were very happy at the time with Sharrif Floyd, Linval Joseph and even Shamar Stephen. Linebackers Myles Jack and Jaylon Smith were on the board, but Minnesota had their two long-term LBs in Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks. Teddy Bridgewater hadn’t gotten hurt yet, and there were no good QBs at that point. Derrick Henry was available, but Adrian Peterson was coming off a rushing title.

Since the Vikings wound up taking Mackensie Alexander in the second round, one could argue they might’ve been interested in a cornerback like Xavien Howard, but again, that’s a stretch since he went with Pick 38.

It’s harder to get upset when there wasn’t a clear Jonny-Flynn-over-Steph-Curry decision made by Vikings brass.

But you can’t help but wonder, what if they each had fulfilled their potential? Would it have helped the Vikings’ failed QBs of the post-Culpepper era? Would Treadwell turned the team’s receiving trio into one of the best ever when combined with Thielen and Diggs?

We never got to find out.

5) What if Cordarrelle Patterson had been utilized properly?

So far in this story we’ve addressed a couple young receivers that were flat-out stars and a couple that were flat-out busts. Patterson’s legacy is a bit more complicated. His rookie year he looked like a Harvin replica. His next two years he looked like a Treadwell. His final season in Minnesota turned out to be useful, and that’s the role he’s played with other organizations since leaving the Vikings.

That Harvin-looking flash in 2013, though, was so good it makes you wonder what could’ve been if the 2014-15 Vikings had tried a little harder to incorporate the former first-round pick.

In fairness, Patterson’s success in 2013 was really only an eight-game stretch. Patterson earned 479 scrimmage yards with three touchdowns on the ground and four through the air in eight games to end the season. Prior to those eight games, he logged two kick return touchdowns, giving him nine scores for the year.

That’s a good microcosm for Patterson’s career. To this day he has 26 career touchdowns: 10 through the air, eight via kick return and eight via rushing plays. He’s always been an all-purpose guy, and that’s how Bill Musgrave saw him in 2013. The key was that Musgrave didn’t fear throwing Patterson the ball. He was 32nd in targets leaguewide in the second half of the season, which meant opponents had to respect him as a receiver, even if Patterson’s route-running wasn’t particularly efficient. It was harder for opponents to guess when the Vikings might use Patterson in the running game, which resulted in Patterson getting 10 carries over the final five games for 156 yards and three touchdowns: 15.6 yards per carry.

The 2014-15 Vikings offenses, led by Norv Turner, were less hospitable to Patterson’s talent. In the first 11 games of the 2014 season, when Patterson was still getting snaps, Turner only dialed up eight running plays for Patterson. In the one game where Patterson got three carries in Week 1, he took one 67 yards for a touchdown. To cease giving Patterson free touches after that was egregious.

Patterson lost his spot in the rotation late in 2014 and didn’t get it back until 2016 when he was an improved receiver. But even then, new coordinator Pat Shurmur didn’t involve him in the rushing attack, despite the fact that the Vikings were the league’s worst rushing team.

Mike Zimmer would confess years later that the Vikings should’ve done a better job incorporating Patterson, who had nice years in 2017-18 for Oakland and New England (where he earned a Super Bowl ring).

A smarter utilization of Patterson wouldn’t have aided the Vikings offense every year. His usage as a running back in 2014 would’ve helped fill the void left by Adrian Peterson, who missed the final 15 games. In 2015 he would’ve been valuable as a yards after catch receiver for Bridgewater, who liked short passes. And in 2016 he could’ve again helped shoulder the burden of losing Peterson for most of the season.

It’s unlikely that Patterson would’ve ever kept up his 2013 pace of nine touchdowns per year, but the longevity of his career indicates that the Vikings whiffed by not being smart with him in his early seasons.