[OC] GM Evaluation 2015-2019 Drafts

Nice piece. From what I see Rick best round is RD2. His first round is gamble of the dice. This shows how much a gamble the draft really is for all. Which makes me like keeping cornerstones like a Hunter even more. I think based on 7 rds a pick in each round. Getting 2 starters is all you can expect and for them to get a second contract. If you can get 2 starters and let's say two ST guys and or role players you doing pretty good. I think Rick UDFA is pretty good too. Getting Thielen, Ham, Harris, Sherels was pretty good.  That round 4 from Rick is atrocious we need to get off those 4 4ths and move up. Funny because we use to be good in rd 4 with Everson, B-Rob.

Interesting, appreciate the effort. I'm curious why there are so many incompletes aka 'not enough information' grades on guys from 3/4/5 years ago? What would it look like if you were forced to put a grade on every guy who is 3+ years past being drafted?

That plus assigning weighted number values to every result so you could give teams a numeric score would be interesting.

Interesting....makes me think of the recent PFF article where they tried something similar and used a WAR/positional value metic to grade draft success over the past 4 years...link...the conclusion reached w/ that article was the Top 10 drafting teams were the Bucs, Saints, Cowboys, Bills, Colts, Steelers, Ravens, Chiefs, Rams and 49ers...while the Vikings (Spielman), Seahawks (Schneider) and Patriots (Belichick) were near the bottom of the league. It sort of supports your initial conclusion that Rick isn't that far off from Schneider or Belichick but puts Colbert (Steelers) in the Top 10.

It would be interesting to see you do the same thing, but with the Bucs, Saints, Cowboys, Bills and Colts and compare the results to Rick - just to see if you come up with the same thing.

For reference, here's the graphic PFF ultimately came up with to show the top drafting teams based on WAR/positional value from the last 4 years....

Thank you for this.

I hate the narrative that Spielman neglects the OL. He's been taking shots in free agency and the draft for several years now. No, it hasn't all come together as we'd prefer, but to continuously read about how Spielman and Zimmer neglect the OL is exhausting and just simply not true.

But yes, we absolutely have to do better. OL scouting and coaching needs to improve and improve RIGHT NOW.

VikingsBoss explained it perfectly. Players who are at "not enough info" didn't play enough to get a true rating, and were either backups or cut. As I stated in my conclusion, the Vikings almost always give their guys a chance - I'll let you decide if that's a positive thing or not.


If I had all the time in the world I might attempt this, but Pro Football Reference tried this with AV, and it stinks after examination. It would take a long time to refine the stat to truly define how valuable a player is.



Yeah, I'd be open for doing a Part 2 to this. I'll put that on my to-do list.

A NFCN Edition?

Part 2



Bears
For a GM that's on the hot seat, Pace's track record is a better than I thought it'd be. Granted, the 1st round has gotten them Roquan Smith and Khalil Mack and nothing else (Leonard Floyd immediately turned a corner once the Rams got him), but Pace is a strong drafter in the later rounds. All of his 2nds look good outside of Shaheen, and Kmet looks promising thus far. Finding Amos and Jackson on Day 3 have been great finds. Pace has nailed the 5th round, landing Amos, Howard, Nichols, and Mooney. Now if only they could find a good QB, Pace wouldn't have to worry about getting fired.

Packers
Nobody drafts DBs like the Packers do, as they took a whopping 7 in the first two rounds 2015-19. Outside of whiffing 5 straight 2nd round picks (King may not be considered a miss, but has been a liability as a starter), the Thompson/Gutekunst duo have performed capably. Clark and Alexander have developed into near-elite players, and mid-rounders like Martinez and Jones have helped round out the roster. The 2020 class is still a weird one that will take several years to evaluate, but remains a head-scratcher for a team that should have went Super Bowl or bust.

Green Bay loves to develop their UDFAs, but they let Taysom Hill go and was claimed by the Saints. However, they deserve credit for claiming Robert Tonyan off waivers and developing him into an above average TE (the Lions let him go, before of course they did).




Lions

This isn't terrible. The Lions have the privilege's of drafting higher most years, so that accounts for part of it, but they've made some nice picks along the way. They've hit on most their OL picks. Quinn also plucked Golladay out of nowhere in the 3rd round and he turned into a #1 WR. One big problem is retaining their own guys - Glasgow and Golladay were quality starters, but left in free agency. The DBs have been questionable, as most scouts knew Teez Tabor was far too slow to play CB, Walker and Harris felt like reaches in the 3rd round, and Okudah had an abysmal rookie season. From the latest class, Swift and Jackson look like hits, but Quinn has been canned alongside Patricia. Spending a top 10 pick on a non-elite TE was not a good move in hindsight.
Detroit has had no success with UDFAs, and let Tonyan go. Whoops!

Saints

Wow... remove the 2015 class, and this is a work of art. Loomis and Payton seem to always be on the same page and have a tendency to make shrewd moves. The 2017 draft class is simply legendary - they landed a #1 CB, top tier RT, great FS, one of the best offensive weapons in the league, a nickel LB, and a slow developing DE who just had 13.5 sacks in 2020. What's there to even criticize? Spending two 1sts on Davenport doesn't seem like a good move, but he's still a capable starter. Ruiz had a very rocky first year. The Saints can afford to go nuts with the cap when they draft like this, and you can see how they've been able to go on playoff runs year after year, even as Brees declines.

The Saints have a keen eye for UDFAs, and also claimed Hill, as mentioned previously. They did let CB Ward go, who's gone on to become the Chiefs' #1 CB.




Once again, this is better than I expected. The Cowboys may have broken down in 2020, but they were an above average team from 2016-2019. The 2016 class is an odd one - they spent a top 5 pick on a HB, spent a high 2nd on a guy whose career was in jeopardy due to injury, and they found their franchise QB in the 4th round. Call it luck, as you may, but the Jones have made several decent finds over the years, like scooping up safeties on Day 3, and hitting on OL consistently. One big problem has been their D-line, as they've been whiffing and not spending picks there. Gregory has been on and off the field with annual drug charges, and DT Hill looks like a bust. The 2020 class was ranked as one of the best by draftniks, but they didn't get much out of it in 2020 outside of Lamb.
The Jones won the Collins sweepstakes in 2015, as La'el got to choose what team to play for following a weird incident that forced him to go undrafted.


Conclusion
I'm starting to get more frustrated at the Vikings' 2016-2019 classes, as it appears that other teams were not having the troubles we were. The Packers and Saints have been annual playoff contenders in part to good drafting; the Cowboys and Bears have been in and out, but have been supporting by decent to good drafting. The Lions' issues run deeper than just mere drafting... we really underestimated how toxic Matt Patricia was to the entire franchise.


Thoughts?