[OC] GM Evaluation 2015-2019 Drafts

Nice read. I think you draw conclusions I wouldn't, especially given there is no weight given to where a player was selected in the draft.
For example:
"Spielman and Schneider love to trade down, but neither have gotten above average results."

Spielman does in fact look like he's getting above average results in the later rounds. Players like Ham, Odenigbo and Wilson may have been only "average" players in your rating system, but are clearly above average results for where they're drafted/picked up as UDFA's.

Just look at the colors for everyone you included for 4-7th rounders and UDFA's. Spielman has done pretty well against the others. Maybe Belichek has done better? It is certainly close enough to be a question.

Like I said, nice read, but I find the whole exercise a little unfulfilling since it doesn't take into account where a player was drafted.

Good points. I agree that it doesn't take into account the draft spot, but also for the purposes of this comparison, maybe it's fine (in these stats) that they don't.

I would agree though that the conclusion that's drawn maybe isn't as clearly supported by these particular stats, since these stats are looking at overall stars/starters/etc. not caring about position.

Let's be honest... trading down with a 3rd, 4th, 5th to acquire extra 5th/6th/7th isn't really with the expectation of finding superstars that late. It's the hope of finding more decent starters, quality backups, rotational guys. Having twice as many swings in the later rounds to get those guys seems to have rewarded us with a lot more useful players from those rounds.

We have 6 average or better from that realm, Schneider has 5, Dorsey had 1 and Colbert had none. So... it seems that getting extra options in the later rounds (something we & Schneider did) HAS paid off with the extra 4-5 decent players.

The question being... what did we give up? I've said it before... 4th round onward, trade back all you want, as the hit rate on 4th rounders is the big dropoff. But if you're going to trade back in 1st-3rd, only do so to acquire more 1st-3rd or to move up in one of those rounds (like trading back 4 spots in the 1st, to trade up 20 spots in the 3rd).

We've had a pretty good hit rate in the 1st-3rd rounds, so I don't want to leave a draft with fewer picks in those rounds than we entered. We're entering 2021 with 3 picks in those rounds... I want 3 players chosen in those rounds!

You don't think you "have enough info" on Alexander Mattison to assign his pick a grade? He's averaged 4.6 yards per carry and 9 yards per reception, and has one fumble in 219 touches. His yards after contact as a runner are 2.0 and 2.4 yards, the same as Dalvin Cook in 2018 and '19, respectively, and as Cook's 2.4 yards after contact last year. Last year, cook averaged 9.5 carries per broken tackle, which slightly bettered Mattison's 9.6 carries broken tackle, while Mattison's 9.1 carries per broken tackle rate as a rookie were much better than Cook's 13.3 and 12.5 in 2018 and '19, respectively. The passer rating throwing to Mattison as a rookie was 95.1, good, right in line with Cook's passer ratings when targeted, but the passer rating targeting Mattison last year was an excellent 123.6. And where Cook has dropped 10 passes over the last two years, Mattison hasn't dropped a one.

Ben Gedeon, surprisingly, probably deserves a grade of "Good," too.

2019 - Gedeon appeared in 8 games, and missed 8 games completely.
With Gedeon: 88 yards rushing yards allowed, 3.93 ypc, two games with over 100 yards rushing, 6-2 record.
Without Gedeon: 128 rushing yards allowed, 4.56 ypc, five games with over 100 yards rushing, 4-3 record (I'm not counting the final loss of the season, when we sat most of the starters), .

The opponents' rushing attacks differed by only five yards per game on average, and were closed in their average yards per carry for the season, 4.25 vs. 4.18, but the teams that Ben played against averaged 16 yards and 0.3 ypc less than their season average, while the teams he didn't play against averaged 19 yards and nearly 0.4 ypc more against us.

And no, there were no other defensive players who missed the games Gedeon missed on a consistent basis.

Based on these 2019 numbers alone, I'd probably bump Gedeon up to "Good."

A lot of work went into this and a lot of detail, both of which I respect.

However.

Your grades are severely stilted. It is clear you made up your mind beforehand "Spielman bad" and then graded the players with that goal in mind.

Let's review. Each person grading will have their own grading system overall so what I will point out is when you have two players rated the same when one is clearly better and have a worse one graded above a lesser one.

You only show 3 elite players so you are obviously stingy with elite. That's fine. Mahomes obviously belongs in a stratosphere of his own. So, look at the other two. Watt and Jones. That is what it takes to be an elite in your mind. Both are Top 10 at their positions. Possibly Top 5. So, let's see, who else is elite, Top 5 at least arguably?

Oh my! You "missed" 4 Vikings! Few would argue Danielle Hunter is not a Top 5 DE. Some say he is the best. Few would argue that Diggs is not Top 5 but, those that would, then slot him in at #6 or #7. Eric Kendricks? Can anyone quickly name even 4 ILBs as good as him let alone better? Dalvin Cook? The national consensus would put him as the #2 overall RB.

So, right there, just looking at "elite", your talent evaluation is entirely discredited. It also means that Spielman drafted twice as many elite players as the next best GM you presented. And more elite players than all other GMs presented combined! Wow! Way to go, Trader Rick!

As well, I know you avoid rating 2020 but the the jury is in on Justin Jefferson. Another elite for Spielman! So, 5 for him and 3 for all those other GMs combined!

This differential between the truth and your ratings continues in places other than elite. For instance, with Belichick, you name Malcolm Brown and Isaiah Wynn as "Good". Really, "Average" might be being too kind to them. Then, you list Brian O'Neill as "Good". Well, if they are "Good" then O'Brian would be "Great". He's played almost every game since he was drafted since what, Game 4 of his rookie year. He was the Vikings top rated OL last year. PFF thinks very highly of him. The NFL thinks so highly of him he may cost 15 million or more in FA. He looks more like a "Great" pick than "Good" but, if he was "Good" then Brown and Wynn need to be moved down to "Below Average".

As far as Alexander Mattison, we know he has worked out exactly how the Vikings want. A top relief RB running with power and great at catching as well. Many teams would happily swap their #1 RB for him. He is not incomplete. He only missed a few games and otherwise has filled his role perfectly as planned and hoped for. There is plenty of info. Just watch a game. He is at least a "Good".

You seem to try to build up Dorsey as a FA GM in order to try to cause a stir of discontent with Spielman like there is a clearly better option out there. First, Dorsey has been fired by two organizations in the last several years and was not even drafting last year. I'll give you an instance where you give Dorsey a break when you do not spare Trader Rick. With the Vikings you point out that Jaleel Johnson, a 4th rounder from 2017 was "Poor". Hey, that is fair! But with Dorsey, for a 3rd round pick from 2016 (higher draft pick and more time to prove himself) you rate KeiVarae Russell as "Not Enough Info". Really? Because I found this "info" on Wikipedia:

"On September 14, 2016, Russell was waived by the Chiefs. He was the earliest draft pick waived that was selected in the first four rounds of the 2016 NFL Draft. Chiefs' head coach en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andy_Reid explained the waiving of Russell, stating that he was unable to get comfortable with the defensive scheme, didn't stand out during training camp and preseason, and was unable to climb the Chiefs' depth chart."

A 3rd round pick waived in SEPTEMBER of his rookie year! He then went on to do nothing in the NFL and is currently on the Packers practice squad. That is the very definition of "Abysmal", a grade you freely give Dru Samia who actually has had much less time in the NFL and was drafted later and yet has done much more in the NFL than has Russell. (Note: I am not saying Samia has not been "Abysmal".)

These are just a few examples of how your ratings miss the mark of accuracy. There are many others.

With your grades as is it makes Trader Rick look like an average GM among the best GMs in the NFL. But, if you adjust the grades to reality, then Trader Rick is shown as clearly successful in the extreme.

I had a few more observations that burbled up from the mind swamp during the night.

Danchat says he did not list Danielle Hunter as Elite because Hunter has never achieved PFF's Elite rating which is 90 or more. This is true of Hunter, barely, as he had an 89.4 in 2019. First, I'll say this: PFF grading T.J.Watt, in a system built to free up OLBs to run free at the QB unblocked, as being a better player than Hunter who is a better run defender and earns all his sacks and gets as many sacks as Watt -- is proof that PFF is not accurate.

Dalvin Cook also barely missed their Elite rating -- and yet everyone knows that he is Elite. He is a threat in all facets of the game whereas Henry is one-dimensional (and is great at that one dimension) and yet Henry is supposedly Elite but Cook is not. Again, this discredits PFF.

Next: PFF has rated two of the Vikings Trader Rick drafted as Elite. Eric Kendricks and Justin Jefferson. So they should be listed as Elite but are not. I know Danchat did not rate players drafted in 2020 claiming there is not enough info. There may not be on some but there is on Jefferson. He is already a Top 5 WR in the NFL and PFF had enough to rate him, did they not? Players usually improve in year 2 and beyond. Even if Jefferson fails to improve, he is still Elite. The only reason to not include members of the 2020 class who have proven themselves is because Dorsey does not have a 2020. The only reason to include Dorsey in this list, and to plump up his numbers, is put him up as a straw man candidate to replace Trader Rick. After this draft Dorsey will have missed two consecutive drafts and have been fired by NFL teams twice in the past 4 years. (By the way, his picks are plumped up -- for instance, Denzel Ward has never gotten an 80 PFF rating, yet is listed as a "GREAT" pick as good as Dalvin Cook and Danielle Hunter who barely miss PFF's Elite rating and are near the maximum of the 80 range.)

Dorsey is not one fourth as good of a GM as Rick Spielman.

So did I also make up my mind beforehand "Belichick bad" and "Schneider bad", then? These grades are a reflection of the player's entire career and not just 2020, keep in mind. I don't think I mentioned that in the article, so that might be what's throwing you off. Getting into the nitty gritty:

Hunter: Has never finished with an Elite grade in PFF, so by my metrics, calling him that would be a major stretch. He is close, but has never been at Watt's level in my opinion.

Diggs: Has only had one Elite season (2020). If he has a repeat, he'll earn the Elite. You could argue Diggs was limited here in Minnesota, but PFF's ratings aren't swayed heavily by volumetric snaps. His efficiency for how often he was thrown the ball in Minnesota indicated that he was Great, not Elite.

Kendricks: He's also had one Elite season (2019), but his subpar 2017 and 2018 seasons prevent him from reaching Elite. I recall Kendricks winning the "most overrated player" in a 2018 poll on Purple Pain, as many were dissatisfied with his many missed tackles. His 2019-2020 resurgence isn't quite enough to put him into Elite IMO.

Jefferson will be Elite if he has another dominant season, I just didn't want to rate the rookies too early. That should be an obvious one for Vikings fans reading this.

Wynn vs O'Neill PFF ranks:

2020: Wynn 11th, O'Neill 24th
2019: O'Neill 31st, Wynn 33rd

Wynn also mans the blindside... I dunno, they seem about the same to me. Wynn did miss his rookie year with an Achilles rupture, so O'Neill does have an extra season on him.

Mattison does not meet my threshold for enough snaps played. Under 200 carries and only 2 starts is not enough to qualify, but he is getting close. He would get a Good rating, but I don't love spending a 3rd rounder on a HB who averages 8 touches a game. At least Spielman traded down 4 or 5 times before taking him!

On KeiVarae Russell... I mentioned him in my article:

"His 2016 pick of CB KeiVarae Russell holds the distinction of the only 3rd rounder in my recent memory to fail to make the team's 53 man cut in his rookie year."

I guess it's up to your interpretation when it comes to Not Enough Info vs Abysmal/Poor. They're both failed picks (if they're far back enough, Mattison wouldn't qualify under this), but you can see that Samia at least got a shot while guys like Russell never did. I see the Russell pick as worse than Samia.

I posed the question about Dorsey at the end because it is clear to me that there was more going on behind the scenes than I knew, so I wouldn't consider him to be a Spielman replacement. But I found it absolutely fascinating that Dorsey drafted that well and got canned twice.

So yeah, that's about it. Yes, I'm relying on PFF grades too much, I know. If I had all the time in the world to watch ever game and examine every player, then I'd adjust the ratings to better suit reality because sometimes PFF grades can be totally whack. I'm open to suggestions on how to improve my ratings system.
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Thanks for replying politely to my slightly salty comment. The trolls have me jumping at shadows!

A player so bad he is cut before he can play (Russell) is certainly worse than one who started games but played terribly (Samia). Also, the jury is in. It does not get much more in that being waived and not seeing the field.

PFF is no better or worse than relying on any other single writer. They have lots of people working for them but only one per player per game and they are obviously out of football now if they ever were in it. Their expertise is not enough to get them a job with a team or in the media. A patchwork of collective inferior opinions is all that it is.

You set the bar with Chris Jones and T.J. Watt as being Elite. Any GM, without a D system in place and no preference between 3-4 and 4-3, given a choice of Hunter or Watt, would take Hunter. Half of Watt's sacks come unblocked. They are system sacks. Hunter earns all of his. Any GM forming a team would also take Diggs over Chris Jones though they are less apples to apples. Kendricks? Linebacker is less valuable as a position but what he does is rare. I'd guess that most GMs would take Watt over Kendricks but would take Kendricks over Jones. All 5 players and Dalvin Cook as well are Top 5 or arguably Top at their spots. So, yeah, the grading is not accurate.

Wynn has missed a lot of time and it is okay to not hold that against the drafting GM as such things as random luck blur the lines. He was also a 1st rounder while O'Neill was tail end of Rd 2. Also, they are talking about getting him away from LT because they, the Patriots, do not have confidence in him. Meanwhile, the Vikings may move O'Neill to LT. We'll see. Again, though, I believe GMs would take O'Neill over Wynn in some supplemental draft and they'd do it 9 out of 10 times.

Be careful about PFF. I quote them, too, but they are no better than a football nerd living in his parent's basement and some of the football nerds are better.

You didn't do 2020 draft but it looks like an Elite and two more Greats in all likelihood. Jefferson is already Top 10, Dantzler was the #2 rookie CB last year (according to PFF!) and Ezra Cleveland, playing out of position, was the #3 or 4 rookie Guard as well.

5 Spielman Elites against 3 Elites for the the combined 4 other GMs listed in detail. I think that settles it right there. We are lucky to have Trader Rick and he is the best at drafting among current or recent GMs. (Micky Loomis may have a say in that. That 2017 draft of his with Lattimore, Ramczy, Williams, Kamara, Hendrickson but his other drafts mostly suck.)

A final (hopefully maybe) comment. Dorsey is listed as drafting Patrick Mahomes and technically he put in the selection as he was the GM then. However, it was Andy Reid that determined that pick. Dorsey should not be credited as some brilliant QB guru. That was Reid. This is one more way that the "straw man" of Dorsey is misrepresented as being better then he really was. Twice fired in the last 4 years and out of football almost 2 drafts now....

These player ratings are not consistent with each other but consistently rate Dorsey's players higher and Trader Rick's lower than the reality. Even with that, it looks like Trader Rick still wins, but if you do it right then he wins by a lot. Even though Dorsey had three draft picks in the top 10 and Rick had zero. Rick beats Dorsey and beats all the rest shown by a lot.