Is Cook Justifying His Contract?

You realize you can have the cap hit to player production with every player right. I can make the same argument you just made when JJ gets his next contract.

It's much easier to get similar production from the RB position than it is in the WR position...

Even if you take just one of two RB's the Vikings had in 2017, J McKinnon, his production was not that far off.

Cook's 2022 projected #'s (based on 2021 yds per touch):
316 touches, 1,675 scrimmage yds, 5.3 yds per touch
Cap hit: $12m

McKinnon's 2017 #'s:
Actual: 201 touches, 991 scrimmage yds, 4.9 yds per touch
Using Cook's # of proj touches: 316 touches, 1,548 yds, 4.9 yds per touch
Cap hit: approx $1.0m

If McKinnon would have received the same number of touches as Cook is averaging in 2021 (316 touches), his production wasn't that far off from what Cook is producing...and McKinnon and/or Murray would account for just 1/4 of what Cook's 2022 cap hit is scheduled to be and what AP's cap hit was in 2016. 

Look at Leonard Fournette for the Bucs, who they signed on a 1-yr, $3.25m deal for 2021: he has 210 touches in 2021 (just 20 shy of Cook's 226), has 1,067 scrimmage yds which averages out to 5.1 yds per touch. Tampa is getting similar production from Fournette and it's only costing them 1/3 of the cap Cook will cost Minnesota in 2022. 

Austin Ekeler, who the Chargers signed last offseason to a 4-yr, $24.5m deal has 205 touches for 1,181 yds, averaging 5.8 yds per touch. He's only cost the LAC $5.8m against their 2021 cap and only $6.5m against their 2022 cap, which is nearly 50% less than what it will cost Minnesota for Cook. 

And even 2021 RB rookies on bad teams are giving decent production. Look at Michael Carter (NYJ): he has 143 touches with 738 yds (avg 5.2 yds per touch) and with him being a 4th Rd rookie, he'll only cost the Jets approx $1.1m per season for the next three seasons. 

OvertheCap, which calculates a player's performance and their contract relative to their peers in the league, currently has Cook's 2021 valuation at $4.9m; meaning Cook's 2021 performance is worth about $4.9m cap space relative to the rest of the RB's in the NFL in 2021, and that's about what his cap hit is in 2021 (link to Cook's OTC page here - link, the valuation is yellow number in middle of page). The problem for Minnesota is that his cap hit jumps up to $12m next year - if Cook is only producing 2021 #'s in 2022, it's going to cost the Vikings 2.5X more in cap space for it, and when you're strapped for cap space (which the Vikings could very well be in the 2022 offseason), having your RB account for 2.5X more than they're worth (production-wise) relative to the rest of the league is something you start to look at...especially since you see other RB's across the league having similar-level production (even rookies) at 50% or less of the cost...

To me it feels like people are
1. More excited to play cap manager then actually cheer for the team
2. More excited to see change then enjoy an elite player

Jason Fitzgerald from OTC recently published an article in relation to the MVP discussion and he broke it down very well by assessing salaries at each position to determine what the 32 teams value as important:
overthecap.com/positional-value-in-the-nfl/

Here's a snippet from the article that I think is relevent to the converation in this thread:

Name a single Tier 1 Free Agent this Team has signed since Kirk arrived.